...a RB at 2." I had never heard of this supposed rule before the past couple of years on BBI. When was this rule invented?
We all know Saquon's strengths and shortcomings. If, in addition to his existing strengths, Saquon was a bruising between-the-tackles runner and pass-blocked like a left tackle, do you "still not take a RB at 2"?
I also read the same thing about certain other positions - for example, you supposedly can't take a center, or a guard, or a safety, and/or maybe some other position that I'm not naming, too high.
I understand that the difference between elite and other players is larger at some positions than others, but this team needs solid players at many, many positions and I don't think the team should be applying arbitrary rules to rule out certain players at certain points of the draft.
Here is one of the most important links, it describes a stat called running success rate. A successful run on 1st down gains 40% or more of the yards needed for a first down, on 2nd down success is getting 50% of the yards necessary for a first down, on 3rd or 4th down it is getting the first down. It turns out this statistic has a far better correlation to winning than total yards, or yards per carry.
https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/11/28/16700670/yards-per-carry-and-other-stats-i-hate-rushing-correlation-success-rate
using that statistic Barkley was at or near the bottom of the league in both his rookie and sophomore seasons. Football outsider has this statistic, but last time I looked it is put behind a paywall... However, I have posted this statistic before it went behind the paywall.
Consistently having successful running plays helps win games. Boom or bust does the opposite. A low rushing success rate but with a number of long plays correlates to losing football.
Barkley's style may produce wonderful highlights, but it is bad if you want to win.
I will readily admit that Barkley combined speed with insane athletic and especially cutting ability. However, he lacked vision even at PSU. Even when he has a hole to squeeze through, he is often looking to cut back for a bigger play. In other words, he never liked taking the yards in front of him. Once DCs saw him in action, they started playing for penetration and disciplined gap control to stop the cutback. Barkley cannot handle penetration, it flusters him. He has been the king of stuffed runs his whole career. He is poor at pass blocking, and he is a poor route runner.
In other words he lacks just about everything you want from a RB that helps you win games. He is not a good RB, never was.
Everybody talks about his 2000 yard rookie season, but much of that yardage came in garbage time. I remember reading somewhere that by their definition over 40% of his yards came in garbage time. So in reality, he rarely showed up when the game was still a contest.
Those who laud his rookie season are remembering the few highlight reel plays. And yes they were spectacular. But there is more to good RB play than being spectacular on 3% of your touches.
when you go to the site, uncheck quarters 4 and 5 leaving only 1, 2 and 3 (that cuts out most of garbage time), and sort by success rate. The Giants are ranked 31st. The teams at the top of this stat are all strong playoff teams.
Rushing success 2021
here is the same stat for 2018, the Giants were 30th with Barkley.
Rushing success 2018
It’s absolutely amazing that the Chargers aren’t in the playoffs.
The rushing success rates of the avg team (49%) and the Giants (44%) aren’t that far apart. It will take a big effort for the team to close that gap but, for the spectator, it means that you need to be really careful about your subjective reactions. That stat basically means that an avg team calls a successful run 10 out of 20 times, and an awful one like the Giants calls it 9 out of 20. That’s hard to calibrate and understand based on viewing. The power of statistics!
2 of the teams the Giants beat - the Saints (hi Sean Peyton, how is life without Drew?) and Panthers - are bottom of the barrel teams offensively. The Saints win looked like a break through to me because they had a winning record but in fact their wins were inflated and the team reverted to their trend afterwards and didn’t make the playoffs.
I linked to the defensive success rates below. Buffalo is #1 v the pass. They are playing KC, which had the #1 overall offensive success rate. This is going to be a classic game this weekend. Really looking forward to it. I like the Bills. They are bringing their high octane offense to play a suspect defense.
Just some thoughts.
2021 Defensive success - ( New Window )
It’s absolutely amazing that the Chargers aren’t in the playoffs.
The rushing success rates of the avg team (49%) and the Giants (44%) aren’t that far apart. It will take a big effort for the team to close that gap but, for the spectator, it means that you need to be really careful about your subjective reactions. That stat basically means that an avg team calls a successful run 10 out of 20 times, and an awful one like the Giants calls it 9 out of 20. That’s hard to calibrate and understand based on viewing. The power of statistics!
2 of the teams the Giants beat - the Saints (hi Sean Peyton, how is life without Drew?) and Panthers - are bottom of the barrel teams offensively. The Saints win looked like a break through to me because they had a winning record but in fact their wins were inflated and the team reverted to their trend afterwards and didn’t make the playoffs.
I linked to the defensive success rates below. Buffalo is #1 v the pass. They are playing KC, which had the #1 overall offensive success rate. This is going to be a classic game this weekend. Really looking forward to it. I like the Bills. They are bringing their high octane offense to play a suspect defense.
Just some thoughts.
2021 Defensive success - ( New Window )
I suggested that it would be better to look at only quarter 1, 2, and 3. By removing quarters 4 and 5 you remove some noise. There are 2 things that happen in the 4th quarter. Losing teams are mostly passing, and defenses are giving up the run. So losing teams running success will go up slightly. Winning teams are trying to run out the clock, and the defense is playing the run. The winning team doesn't care as much about successful runs. So there is noise in anything beyond the 3rd quarter.
If you look at the stat in only the first 3 quarters, the average success rate in 2018 was still 49%, but the Giant's success was 42%. In 2021 the average was 51%, the Giants were at 44%. In both cases 7% below average. In a game of inches, 7% is significant.
Regarding running behind a shit OL... In 2020 the numbers were league average 51%, Giants 48% with largely Gallman running the ball. So yeah, the line matters, but so does the RB...
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In comment 15563027 Go Terps said:
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The 1160-ish page range of the forum archives is full of reads on this subject. Speaking of, I wish it were easier to search for stuff. I want it documented: Who's quitting on Eli? - ( New Window )
Those old threads make me miss arcarsenal.
I had completely forgotten about him. That guy was like a reverse compass for determining how things would actually play out.
I do remember him being aligned with you about Lamar Jackson during that draft though.
Explosive Rushing plays... I think most here will be surprised that the Giants ranked 28th in explosive running plays in 2018.
Explusive Rushing Plays 2018
So not only did Barkley bust at a higher rate, he boomed at a lower rate. Again, it's just that his booms were spectacular.