Earlier this year I asserted that if you have an "average" QB you have less than a 1% chance of winning the Superbowl each year. If you have one of the top QBs you have about a 10% chance of winning each year.
This was based on the assertion that (history shows) about 8 teams have superior QBs and those QBs win 80% of the Superbowls.
- So elite QBs have a 80%/8 teams = 10% chance of winning a Superbowl
- Average QBs have a 20%/24 teams = .83% chance of winning a Superbowl
- You are 12 times more likely to win a Superbowl if you have an elite QB.
(BTW, advanced stats show that being elite in a defensive category only gives you half that advantage that having an elite QB gives you. So there are other ways to have an advantage over the field, but having a top QB seems to be the best way to gain advantage over the field).
This weekend is another illustration. There are 4 QBs left, 3 of which are elite, 1 average. The 1 average QB represents 24 teams with average QBs, the 3 elite QBs represent the approximately 8 teams with elite QBs.
- If you're one of the 24 teams with an average QB, you had a 1/24 = 4% chance of making it to the final 4.
- If you're one of the 8 teams with a superior QB, you had a 3/8 = 37.5% chance of making it to the final 4.
- You are 9 times more likely to make it to the final 4 with an elite QB.
An (admittedly subjective) analysis shows that this seems to be true across decades of play. You can win a Superbowl without an elite QB, but statistically you have an outsized advantage with a top QB.
You can bet that Schoen and whoever he hires as HC will be looking for their Allen/Mahomes/Burrow.
You’re talking about the two best quarterbacks in the game right now after last night. And Joe Burrow right behind them.
What about Engram? Could he become our hybrid of Kelce and Waller?
At this point, it would best for both parties to go their separate ways.
He isn't just not elite, he need to improve to be average.
He isn't just not elite, he need to improve to be average.
that's my point. the thread title was facetious (my bad). our new regime will be looking for their guy. this will be a priority for them. that's their best path to the top.
All the rules favor passing the ball, you better excel at it.
All the rules favor passing the ball, you better excel at it.
Run the ball, stop the run, rush the passer.
words to live by...
As far as passing stats go and prowess as a QB, few would label him elite.
However, the guy is 33-14 as a starting QB in his career, is 4-1 in the playoffs and has played in the NFC championship 2 of the last 3 years.
If I had to give an NFL career comp - it would probably be Joe Flacco...
All the athleticism and physical gifts in the world cannot make up for Jones' complete lack of sense and feel.
Jones' is extremely athletic and is an amazing runner, but it really comes through on designed runs. Jones RARELY extends or makes plays with his legs off script
+a zillion. Stop this shit.
As far as passing stats go and prowess as a QB, few would label him elite.
However, the guy is 33-14 as a starting QB in his career, is 4-1 in the playoffs and has played in the NFC championship 2 of the last 3 years.
If I had to give an NFL career comp - it would probably be Joe Flacco...
The difference between Flacco - and many would argue Eli too - is that they significantly elevated their play at playoff time, putting up stats they didnt put up with any consistency during the regular season.
Conversely, Jimmy G just won a playoff game where he was responsible for 6 offensive points. For his career, he has 2 playoff TDs versus 5 interceptions.
THey are winning in spite of him, not because of him. Flacco and Eli carried their teams in January.
As far as passing stats go and prowess as a QB, few would label him elite.
However, the guy is 33-14 as a starting QB in his career, is 4-1 in the playoffs and has played in the NFC championship 2 of the last 3 years.
If I had to give an NFL career comp - it would probably be Joe Flacco...
Yep. I'd go with Flacco as well.
- Jimmy G. is at the top end of the average QBs. He represents the 24 teams in the same boat and was the one that managed to climb to the final 4.
- The Niners seems to be winning in spite of Jimmy G., not because of him.
- I think the Niners management might feel the same way, having drafted Trey Lance.
- I'm sure Shanahan would trade QBs with the other 3 final 4 teams in a heart beat. He probably gives Jimmy the side eye on the bench every time he makes a bone headed play.
All the athleticism and physical gifts in the world cannot make up for Jones' complete lack of sense and feel.
Jones' is extremely athletic and is an amazing runner, but it really comes through on designed runs. Jones RARELY extends or makes plays with his legs off script
He's gotten pre-snap, but was pretty bad his first two seasons. It's tough to see if this year's turnover drop was a result of better pre-snap conditions or a controlled conservative offense.
He still doesn't read his route progressions cleanly enough which is often the death knell for QBs. It's what is killing Darnold from being anything.
BUT...I find the most interesting part about him to be the fact that he has missed parts of/most of the season multiple times throughout his tenure in SF and the 49ers were just not the same team.
So while I agree that he hasn't performed to level of a Flacco - there's something about the 9ers when he's there vs when he's not which doesn't exactly make him just replaceable.
Yes, I think he could be a guy in the range of 12-15 with a good supporting cast. He'll never be top 5 though and the fact he can't play a full season is a major issue.
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in your study is Jimmy G.
As far as passing stats go and prowess as a QB, few would label him elite.
However, the guy is 33-14 as a starting QB in his career, is 4-1 in the playoffs and has played in the NFC championship 2 of the last 3 years.
If I had to give an NFL career comp - it would probably be Joe Flacco...
The difference between Flacco - and many would argue Eli too - is that they significantly elevated their play at playoff time, putting up stats they didnt put up with any consistency during the regular season.
Conversely, Jimmy G just won a playoff game where he was responsible for 6 offensive points. For his career, he has 2 playoff TDs versus 5 interceptions.
THey are winning in spite of him, not because of him. Flacco and Eli carried their teams in January.
If you can't appreciate the game Jimmy G. played yesterday, then you should stick to the Mets.
I'd be more worried just how far behind he is to Garoppolo. If Jimmy G is average- what does that make Jones?
Jones sucks. He'll get evaluated as such in 2022 by the new regime.
It's hard to win when you have a backup QB masquerading as a stater.
If they don't know by now what he is, we're in trouble.
If they decide anything other than he's inadequate, we're in trouble.
However, I havent seen evidence that he has the level of elusiveness or acceleration that those 2 have.
Much more importantly, his arm talent is nowhere near Mahomes and Allen. Jones can make all the throws if he is set and steps into them, but he cant make throws off balance with mustard the way Mahomes and Allen can, and that ability by Allen and Mahomes was in full display last night.
However, I havent seen evidence that he has the level of elusiveness or acceleration that those 2 have.
Much more importantly, his arm talent is nowhere near Mahomes and Allen. Jones can make all the throws if he is set and steps into them, but he cant make throws off balance with mustard the way Mahomes and Allen can, and that ability by Allen and Mahomes was in full display last night.
Jones cannot make all the throws that Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Stafford, Rodgers, etc can make. No way. No how.
Why does this distortion keepgetting repeated.
Daniel Jones is a limted thrower of the football.
However, I havent seen evidence that he has the level of elusiveness or acceleration that those 2 have.
Much more importantly, his arm talent is nowhere near Mahomes and Allen. Jones can make all the throws if he is set and steps into them, but he cant make throws off balance with mustard the way Mahomes and Allen can, and that ability by Allen and Mahomes was in full display last night.
Maybe a 70 yard dash. Then he'd fall down.
The biggest difference I see (other than the elusiveness) is that Allen, Mahomes and Burrow all keep their eyes focused down field while they extend plays. Over and over again. I'm not sure I've ever seen Jones do that. That's why they're so dangerous.
Sorry, as I posted above, the thread title was meant to be facetious. The point is that Schoen will be looking for his own elite QB and it is probably job 1. The math is irrefutable.
He sorta showed it year 1, and it just never happened.
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Jones probably could beat Allen and Mahomes in a 100 yard dash with pads and helmets on holding a football, going by the fact that he has been posting top speeds on some of his runs before this year that were better than those 2.
However, I havent seen evidence that he has the level of elusiveness or acceleration that those 2 have.
Much more importantly, his arm talent is nowhere near Mahomes and Allen. Jones can make all the throws if he is set and steps into them, but he cant make throws off balance with mustard the way Mahomes and Allen can, and that ability by Allen and Mahomes was in full display last night.
Maybe a 70 yard dash. Then he'd fall down.
The biggest difference I see (other than the elusiveness) is that Allen, Mahomes and Burrow all keep their eyes focused down field while they extend plays. Over and over again. I'm not sure I've ever seen Jones do that. That's why they're so dangerous.
Actually, Jones does keep his eyes downfield, he is just slow to cycle through receivers and he has limited awareness of the rush around him while he has his eyes downfield.
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Jones probably could beat Allen and Mahomes in a 100 yard dash with pads and helmets on holding a football, going by the fact that he has been posting top speeds on some of his runs before this year that were better than those 2.
However, I havent seen evidence that he has the level of elusiveness or acceleration that those 2 have.
Much more importantly, his arm talent is nowhere near Mahomes and Allen. Jones can make all the throws if he is set and steps into them, but he cant make throws off balance with mustard the way Mahomes and Allen can, and that ability by Allen and Mahomes was in full display last night.
Jones cannot make all the throws that Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Stafford, Rodgers, etc can make. No way. No how.
Why does this distortion keepgetting repeated.
Daniel Jones is a limted thrower of the football.
Because he can and he has shown it. I dont know why this distortion that Jones cant make the throws that others can keeps getting repeated.
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In comment 15571655 Keyser said:
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Jones probably could beat Allen and Mahomes in a 100 yard dash with pads and helmets on holding a football, going by the fact that he has been posting top speeds on some of his runs before this year that were better than those 2.
However, I havent seen evidence that he has the level of elusiveness or acceleration that those 2 have.
Much more importantly, his arm talent is nowhere near Mahomes and Allen. Jones can make all the throws if he is set and steps into them, but he cant make throws off balance with mustard the way Mahomes and Allen can, and that ability by Allen and Mahomes was in full display last night.
Jones cannot make all the throws that Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Stafford, Rodgers, etc can make. No way. No how.
Why does this distortion keepgetting repeated.
Daniel Jones is a limted thrower of the football.
Because he can and he has shown it. I dont know why this distortion that Jones cant make the throws that others can keeps getting repeated.
No. He cannot even throw a back shoulder fade with any regularity. You see a few nice spirals a game and think he's accurate and can make all the throws. He doesn't have the arm to throw an effective deep out.
You are deludkng yourself about this player's talent. And it helps noone, especially the Giants.
He’s a good athlete but doesn’t play the game anything like those two guys last night.
Watching Mahomes and Allen play the most obvious difference to me is how loose they play. That seems to helps them with improvising and throwing on the run. I don’t know if that can be taught.
Oh and they also have cannon arms, which Jones also does not have.
Better figure out a way to win with an average quarterback.
All these great quarterbacks look average at best when you have a great pass rush. How did Brady do against Giants or Mahomes in the super bowl last year.
Stop the run, rush the passer. Still the formula for a winning defense.
There are QBs in the top 8 that would not be if they were the QB for the Giants the past several years.
That's why Shoen has his new job. Hopefully he is able to change this.
Better figure out a way to win with an average quarterback.
All these great quarterbacks look average at best when you have a great pass rush. How did Brady do against Giants or Mahomes in the super bowl last year.
Stop the run, rush the passer. Still the formula for a winning defense.
The reality is, you don't win with average qbs in this league much anymore. You will always get one in the playoffs, perhaps even one that makes a run being carried by a great team - Jimmy G, for example - but by and large you need a top 10 if not top 8 guy to have the best shot.
Better figure out a way to win with an average quarterback.
All these great quarterbacks look average at best when you have a great pass rush. How did Brady do against Giants or Mahomes in the super bowl last year.
Stop the run, rush the passer. Still the formula for a winning defense.
Herbert didn't look average when he played behind a bad line and got harassed. He looked awesome.
Burrow didn't look average either.
You statement is incorrect and meant to prop up an inferior QB - Daniel Jones.
Within that context, I think the league can be divided into three categories:
1. We have an elite QB that we are either paying or are happy to pay (example - KC)
2. We have a rookie or 2nd year QB that we are hoping will pan out to be a guy in group 1, but we don't know yet (example - NE)
3. Everyone else (example - NYG)
If you're in group 3, finding a new QB is your team's top roster priority.
Within that context, I think the league can be divided into three categories:
1. We have an elite QB that we are either paying or are happy to pay (example - KC)
2. We have a rookie or 2nd year QB that we are hoping will pan out to be a guy in group 1, but we don't know yet (example - NE)
3. Everyone else (example - NYG)
If you're in group 3, finding a new QB is your team's top roster priority.
I think this is pretty close to fact for most GMs in the league.
I'll emphasize the importance of the group 2 teams - a year or 2 is what it takes to figure out what you have - not 4.
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I'll add that there's one more element to consider - rookie contract schedule.
Within that context, I think the league can be divided into three categories:
1. We have an elite QB that we are either paying or are happy to pay (example - KC)
2. We have a rookie or 2nd year QB that we are hoping will pan out to be a guy in group 1, but we don't know yet (example - NE)
3. Everyone else (example - NYG)
If you're in group 3, finding a new QB is your team's top roster priority.
I think this is pretty close to fact for most GMs in the league.
I'll emphasize the importance of the group 2 teams - a year or 2 is what it takes to figure out what you have - not 4.
If it takes 4, you already have your answer, whether you admit it or not.
If you can't appreciate the game Jimmy G. played yesterday, then you should stick to the Mets.
Huh? Jimmy G was pretty awful. They had -10 yards late in the 2nd Q. He threw one pick, but was lucky not to have 2 others, including a pick 6. He is a liability to the 49ers, and if they lose on Sunday, I would put money on it being due to a Jimmy G miscue.
SF scored 6 points. SIX! But go on about how great Jimmy G played.
Within that context, I think the league can be divided into three categories:
1. We have an elite QB that we are either paying or are happy to pay (example - KC)
2. We have a rookie or 2nd year QB that we are hoping will pan out to be a guy in group 1, but we don't know yet (example - NE)
3. Everyone else (example - NYG)
If you're in group 3, finding a new QB is your team's top roster priority.
Up until now it was obvious the Giants thought they belonged to group number 2... hell, perhaps group number 1. But now with Schoen and the eventual head coach, I imagine they'll realize we're in group 3.
How would anyone even know? Did whoever posted this interview a coach or something?
If you can't appreciate the game Jimmy G. played yesterday, then you should stick to the Mets.
Witty! And which part of the 6 points, terrible INT in the red zone, and two other throws that are pick 6s if the corner takes a proper route impressed you?
This cant be a serious conversation.
But he still tried to throw a few pick 6s, any of which would've ended the game. Hes got a loaded team and they can't score.
There's a reason that a smart organization with a win now team spent a bunch to draft another QB
I'd have a lot of set plays for Lance ready to go this week. SF is the best team remaining in these playoffs...but the QB play might destroy their chances.