Just wanted to see what some of the more knowledgeable minds on BBI are thinking on where the market is heading. Nasdaq tumbles further into correction territory with this morning's open, while we await word from the Fed's 2 day policy meeting tomorrow/Wednesday on just how much interest rates will rise this year.
Are we headed towards a recession, or is this increased volatility going to be more of the normal as the Fed tries to fight off this crazy inflation?
It's not like rate hikes haven't been telegraphed for some time.
My hunch is that there will be some real buying opportunities.
For my investments, I usually have a plan. Right now, I'm flying by the seat of my pants. I watch the news & current events as indicators (and that's not a great way to gauge the market). The main events coming up this week is the Fed meeting on Tuesday, and whatever happens in Ukraine/Russia.
Tech and growth stocks had absurd multiples and they are bearing the brunt on this drop.
Agree with all falling there will be further opportunities in value stocks. Tech should and will be slaughtered for next few weeks as the market corrects.
All of this is my opinion and wtf do I know really
Not all cash but significantly reduced tech exposure.
Not all, but I hold very few stocks and bonds. I’m most concerned about the bond market, fwiw. I suspect there is an insane amount of leverage being used by fixed income funds to juice up returns in a low yield rate environment, and if that starts to unwind, hold on to your horses.
I also think crypto is a scam.
But other than that things are great :)
My advice to clients has been to sit tight. A lot of this volatility is centered around higher interest rates and the effect on growthier stocks, and these stocks are coming back down to earth. A little multiple contraction was necessary. We are GARP investors and I feel comfortable owning stocks that are more cyclical and will benefit in a higher interest rate environment. Volatility is normal....sit tight and let the market re- price itself.
It HAD to be this way.
Many people feel that way but with inflation what will going to cash do for you?
Stocks and real estate offer inflation protection. Cash and bonds don’t. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset class linked to nothing other than fear/greed.
All cash since the end of August.
It HAD to be this way.
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TIA
All cash since the end of August.
The S&P 500 is 100 points higher right now than it was in mid- August. When do you get back in?
Long term investors win when staying invested. Market timing is a losing proposition, in my opinion.
Market compression definitely needed
These are companies I wanted to own at better valuations. They are getting there, even if nasdaq corrects another 10%
My timeline is approximately 10 yrs for all 3, Apple too ( which I already enough of)
Think all 3 ( especially nvidia) will probably triple by end of decade
My smaller spec plays getting crushed so it may be hurting couple yrs with them ( PLuG, quantumscape). Still like them a lot, especially from 2025 on
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TIA
All cash since the end of August.
I'm going opposite. Cash is not worth what it used to be. Stock will be volatile. Go buy an asset that either appreciates, generates income or both...and hold on.
I own a business that I started with $25,000 in personal savings in 2015 and grew it into a multi-million dollar company with 7 fulltime employees. Due to all these insane regulations and lockdowns, we are being forced to try to sell before we go out of business.
I own a business that I started with $25,000 in personal savings in 2015 and grew it into a multi-million dollar company with 7 fulltime employees. Due to all these insane regulations and lockdowns, we are being forced to try to sell before we go out of business.
Lol, on the heels of the last president who ran up nearly 8 trillion in 4 years.
This country has been spending, irresponsibly for a good 20 years now. The pandemic just put us out of our misery.
I own a business that I started with $25,000 in personal savings in 2015 and grew it into a multi-million dollar company with 7 fulltime employees. Due to all these insane regulations and lockdowns, we are being forced to try to sell before we go out of business.
Which administration? I hope that is snark. Cause if you are actually picking sides you are a bigger idiot than I would give you credit for.
I own a business that I started with $25,000 in personal savings in 2015 and grew it into a multi-million dollar company with 7 fulltime employees. Due to all these insane regulations and lockdowns, we are being forced to try to sell before we go out of business.
Sorry to hear that man…. So many small to medium businesses have gone under during this freaking plandemic…. It’s ridiculous and I’m sorry your business is taking the brunt… this isn't about politics either. Republicans and Democrats are equally to blame for where we now sit. For decades these fuckers have been putting tax payers dollars into their own pockets.
Again… R and D’s are the catalyst for decades of where we now find ourselves. Fuck both sides, we Americans have to come back together and stop fighting over dumb shit…. Before it’s too late (hell it may already be too far gone)
+1
With that said, there's still plenty of free money from Bidens covid deal to put into the economy. So, I'm betting this isn't a full correction. I think that happens late 2023.problem is, free money is fueling inflation.
Bottom line...it's coming. The Fed needs to slowly get rates up, as much as possible, to fight inflation and fight a correction down the road.
When SUVs cost over $100K...maybe it's time for a reset.
Yes, I did this. Smart investment.
In DFW...pretty much all the full size models. I've seen Escalades for over $125K. About 2 months ago, I sold my dad's truck (for $12K under what he paid 7 years ago) at an Audi dealership, and a USED Audi SUV was in the showroom for $89K.
No one knows the answer to that question. And if someone says he or she does, then never take any advice from him or her.
The only thing that is 100% certain -- assets prices are lower than they were on 12/31/2021. A lot lower. But they could go lower still. Way lower. Or higher! But no one knows for sure.
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is no action. Sit tight. Things will bounce back.
+1
Generally agree with this. Over time, stocks will always be the way to go, but of course not without bumps along the way.
BUT - I would say that a recalibration of your holdings is probably in order. Over the past few days I've sold off a bunch of tech ETFs that I had bought early last year; given the tech correction and the rate hikes we will be experiencing, I'm considering a bunch of safer options that would do better in a higher-rate and generally more unsettled environment.
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In DFW...pretty much all the full size models. I've seen Escalades for over $125K. About 2 months ago, I sold my dad's truck (for $12K under what he paid 7 years ago) at an Audi dealership, and a USED Audi SUV was in the showroom for $89K.
And what does a Toyota or Honda SUV go for, or even Lexus? Using top of the line Escalades that only rich people buy anyway to discuss inflation is plain stupid
So, the market tumbles/corrects/sucks, choose your word. If you go selling, don't you have to pony up for the unrealized gains, in cap taxes?
My son, who works in PE, says timing the market is like trying to know when to catch a sharp knife on its way down.
I hate it too, especially as I just retired in September. But I did get my guy to put a year's worth of money in cash, just in case, which makes this "correction" a bit worrisome, but has no immediate effect if I sit tight.
I'm 50/50 equity/fixed income, which I am told is SOP for my situation.
Dow had been down over 1,000 today; as of 1:41 pm, *only* down 695.
Bitcoin Surges $3000 Off The Lows As Rate Hike Odds Tumble - ( New Window )
In DFW...pretty much all the full size models. I've seen Escalades for over $125K. About 2 months ago, I sold my dad's truck (for $12K under what he paid 7 years ago) at an Audi dealership, and a USED Audi SUV was in the showroom for $89K.
Meh. People just want that prestigious "Sewell" vanity plate, lol
Government is spending a lot of money. It is way too big (state and local level as well) and has become very expensive over decades which I attribute to having more a right to serve than earning that right.
If layoffs hit the corporate side (particularly financial) I would imagine things could get really bad. Government layoffs would contribute as well. Guess we just have to see how earning go over the coming quarters.
Be interested to see more takes from some of the experts on here.
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In comment 15571922 Snablats said:
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In DFW...pretty much all the full size models. I've seen Escalades for over $125K. About 2 months ago, I sold my dad's truck (for $12K under what he paid 7 years ago) at an Audi dealership, and a USED Audi SUV was in the showroom for $89K.
And what does a Toyota or Honda SUV go for, or even Lexus? Using top of the line Escalades that only rich people buy anyway to discuss inflation is plain stupid
Lexus LX starts at $88K...so, I was way off. Acting like inflation hasn't affected every level of purchasing power is "plain stupid" also. Maybe it's a Texas issue (doubtful)...but truck and SUV prices are through the roof here.
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TIA
All cash since the end of August.
Same
My current allocation:
40% - Bonds
35% - Stocks
25% - Cash
It's been a good run, I don't mind sitting back for a while to collect divi's and interest.
I'm thinking, If one wants to play this out with a certain tactic, place a TRAILING STOP% limit order for some of the solid blue chips that you would like to get back into eventually. Set the threshold wide and sit back and wait to see if it triggers in the ensuing days/months. I've always held most of my positions throughout downturns/events, but may give this idea a go.
Thoughts?
While at cash = market recovers.
By the time I get back, missed recovery and lost money
My recommendation - Stay disciplined, stay invested, eventually you will recover all your loses.
history of crashes/corrections confirm this again and again.
While at cash = market recovers.
By the time I get back, missed recovery and lost money
My recommendation - Stay disciplined, stay invested, eventually you will recover all your loses.
history of crashes/corrections confirm this again and again.
yeah you described me. I know how to make money.. just not in the stock market.
Exactly two years ago I had a bad feeling about the market, so I pulled my 401k investments out of the risky funds and put it ALL into a stable fund. In less than a week, the market crashed. Awesome right? Sure.. except that I never re-invested the money and did not take advantage of the upswing.
Now... I have to determine a new entry point
....The main events coming up this week is the Fed meeting on Tuesday, and whatever happens in Ukraine/Russia.
I'd just add that it's not only Russia and the Fed, it's our political gridlock, not at all good in long run. So imo this could be of the nastier type of correction. I'm approximately 50% cash, have been for many months. Nibbled at the edges of some names today, no big trades.
Stay invested!!! The only way you win in the long run is to stay invested. Buy good companies and stick with them. Those who attempt to time the market ultimately sell at the wrong time and eventually buy at the wrong time. Selling low and buying high is a recipe for failure.
Again… R and D’s are the catalyst for decades of where we now find ourselves. Fuck both sides, we Americans have to come back together and stop fighting over dumb shit…. Before it’s too late (hell it may already be too far gone)
Well said, i'm sick of the politicians trying to divide us, were all americans
If you had $1000 invested - YES
If you had $1000000 invested - NO
No just keep an eye on what is going on and get back in at a good point, just dont kill yourself trying to time the market. You many want to just drip it back in instead of doing it all in one shot.
IMO, the markets are all BS. They have to connection to what's going on in the real world.
They were way overvalued for a long period, and its basically going to come back into line.
I have a 401K and was making over 30% in certain funds, that's outrageous.
It just can't continue that way.
I'd guess with the sudden downturn, shorts are probably covering some and closing out positions. Most folks I'd guess, want to see what happens next with fed news and earnings coming up shortly.
But that aside, I would definitely look to buy Roku, Crowdstrike etc . .. They have gone from overvalued to undervalued. That's the nature of the market. Too far up and then too far down
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My experience after downturns = go to cash
While at cash = market recovers.
By the time I get back, missed recovery and lost money
My recommendation - Stay disciplined, stay invested, eventually you will recover all your loses.
history of crashes/corrections confirm this again and again.
yeah you described me. I know how to make money.. just not in the stock market.
Exactly two years ago I had a bad feeling about the market, so I pulled my 401k investments out of the risky funds and put it ALL into a stable fund. In less than a week, the market crashed. Awesome right? Sure.. except that I never re-invested the money and did not take advantage of the upswing.
Now... I have to determine a new entry point
Chunk it back in. Start with some high dividend stocks (above 10% like New Residence) and then slowly put it back in tech and maybe even travel stocks.
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In comment 15571935 GMen72 said:
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In comment 15571922 Snablats said:
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In DFW...pretty much all the full size models. I've seen Escalades for over $125K. About 2 months ago, I sold my dad's truck (for $12K under what he paid 7 years ago) at an Audi dealership, and a USED Audi SUV was in the showroom for $89K.
And what does a Toyota or Honda SUV go for, or even Lexus? Using top of the line Escalades that only rich people buy anyway to discuss inflation is plain stupid
Lexus LX starts at $88K...so, I was way off. Acting like inflation hasn't affected every level of purchasing power is "plain stupid" also. Maybe it's a Texas issue (doubtful)...but truck and SUV prices are through the roof here.
Even if the lexus was 60k, if you can pay that for a car you arent worried about inflation. No one gives a crap that the "purchasing power" of rich people is affected. The old line about a Rolls Royce was "if you have to ask how much, you cant afford one"
Personally I want to see how this plays out and if this correction is over or if there is more to correct but I think this has created some good buys IMO
I own a business that I started with $25,000 in personal savings in 2015 and grew it into a multi-million dollar company with 7 fulltime employees. Due to all these insane regulations and lockdowns, we are being forced to try to sell before we go out of business.
Your started a business that achieved multi million status in less than 7 years but is now in the verge of collapse because of a few recently passed regulations? Color me skeptical.
Very few investors steadily beat the S&P, and therefore, very few beat this approach. What's more the process is automated so it is worry free.
Since nobody answered...YES. I put in my second $10k over the weekend. I'm still in the market, but I-Bonds are better then the bank & CD's...
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Has anyone invested in I-Bonds before? Looking at it as a way to protect some cash over the next few years.
Thanks for the heads up. I just opened an account and deposited in under 30 minutes.
Guys this is the safest/risk free 7.1% int you can get. Only caveat is that the money isn't liquid with a small interest penalty if you need to make an early withdraw( 3 months int from what I understand).
If folks can, they should max this out every year possible! I wish I had learned/started investing in this long ago. I didn't know the I-bonds payed so well, now I know : )
Since nobody answered...YES. I put in my second $10k over the weekend. I'm still in the market, but I-Bonds are better then the bank & CD's...
Guys this is the safest/risk free 7.12% int you can get. Only caveat is that the money isn't liquid with a small interest penalty if you need to make an early withdraw( 3 months int from what I understand).
If folks can, they should max this out every year possible! I wish I had learned/started investing in this long ago. I didn't know the I-bonds payed so well, now I know : )
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In comment 15571639 Existenz said:
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Has anyone invested in I-Bonds before? Looking at it as a way to protect some cash over the next few years.
Thanks for the heads up. I just opened an account and deposited in under 30 minutes.
Guys this is the safest/risk free 7.1% int you can get. Only caveat is that the money isn't liquid with a small interest penalty if you need to make an early withdraw( 3 months int from what I understand).
If folks can, they should max this out every year possible! I wish I had learned/started investing in this long ago. I didn't know the I-bonds payed so well, now I know : )
Since nobody answered...YES. I put in my second $10k over the weekend. I'm still in the market, but I-Bonds are better then the bank & CD's...
Since you have invested in this product before, is the coupon quarterly/monthly?
Did you also contribute $5k towards the paper version?
Very few investors steadily beat the S&P, and therefore, very few beat this approach. What's more the process is automated so it is worry free.
Agree wholeheartedly with this; and also supplementing this advice with a chunk of $$ into safe stocks that should do well (or at least not that badly) in a higher-rate environment. In addition to broad-based index funds, I'm considering individual stocks such as Waste Management, ProLogis, Bank of America, ADP, MetLife and McDonald's. I also currently own Berkshire Hathaway and may add to that.
Link - ( New Window )
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Has anyone invested in I-Bonds before? Looking at it as a way to protect some cash over the next few years.
Since nobody answered...YES. I put in my second $10k over the weekend. I'm still in the market, but I-Bonds are better then the bank & CD's...
Is the limit $10K per calendar year?
You can put over that amount, right?
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In comment 15571639 Existenz said:
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Has anyone invested in I-Bonds before? Looking at it as a way to protect some cash over the next few years.
Since nobody answered...YES. I put in my second $10k over the weekend. I'm still in the market, but I-Bonds are better then the bank & CD's...
Is the limit $10K per calendar year?
You can put over that amount, right?
From what I read/understood you can contribute up to $10K per year in I-bonds. So you'd have to wait until Jan 23 to contribute another 10. But there was also a paper version that you can also purchase with a limit of $5k for the same type product. I going to research more on this "paper" version that yields the same INT rate and under the same terms.
They have other options on the treasury website, but these I think these are the best deal out there from .gov
Link - ( New Window )
You have to hold for a year to accrue interest - otherwise you forfeit it all. If you redeem prior to five years you lose five months interest. And you can only put up to $10K per person.
Those are the only drawbacks.
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I didn't know these existed. This is akin to free money. What's the catch? Link - ( New Window )
You have to hold for a year to accrue interest - otherwise you forfeit it all. If you redeem prior to five years you lose five months interest. And you can only put up to $10K per person.
Those are the only drawbacks.
Thanks. So for something like college savings, these are ideal. Maximize the 529 deduction ($10K per married couple), plus up to $10K per year into an I Bond, the interest on which is not subject to state tax (and potentially federal tax as well, if used for education and income below a certain threshold).
I've tried to get everyone I know into the i-bonds.
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really should not be trading stocks. When you have an administration that is pro-regulation, pro-foreign interests and spends WRECKLESSLY, of course it is going to all fall apart.
I own a business that I started with $25,000 in personal savings in 2015 and grew it into a multi-million dollar company with 7 fulltime employees. Due to all these insane regulations and lockdowns, we are being forced to try to sell before we go out of business.
Which administration? I hope that is snark. Cause if you are actually picking sides you are a bigger idiot than I would give you credit for.
:unsure:
Very few investors steadily beat the S&P, and therefore, very few beat this approach. What's more the process is automated so it is worry free.
This is most sound advice. Its the Boglehead philosophy.
Doing it since 2008. I laugh at all downturns like its nothing. My low cost index funds (Vanguard) has exponentially grown, and I can retire anytime and I'm only 47. I laugh at this downturn. Panic selling only locks in your losses.