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Jones; how much of a factor was scheme, Shurmur vs JJ and JG

bigblue5611 : 1/27/2022 10:54 am
I'll preface this by saying that I don't know if Jones is the long term answer or not. I hope that he is since that would be one less position to worry about and be able to use draft assets elsewhere. I also know that the Jones discussion has been beaten to death.

That being said, I watched his rookie highlights the other day for the hell of it and to me it doesn't look like the same QB. Granted I'm not an evaluator by any means, but there seemed to be more downfield shots and RPO's in this 13 minute reel than the last two season combined. I have to wonder how much the conservative nature of the offensive scheme and play calling hampered both Jones and the offense. I know the OL play was horrendous this past season and not that good in 2020 either. But it's not like the '07 line was blocking for Jones' rookie year either.

I'm sure this will eventually turn into a pro Jones vs the anti Jones group discussion, but for the sake of it, at least try to keep things in the middle strictly discussing how much more a benefit it was to have an OC like Shurmur vs what we saw under JJ and JG.

Some of the plays I really liked... 1:08 (two plays back to back here, throws to Slayton and Shep); 2:28 (again two plays back to back at this mark); 3:13; 3:41; 4:38 (two plays back to back at this mark); 8:29 and 12:30. Some of the ball placement and throws on these were beautiful. Lastly, I think there were more plays in this reel where WR were open in space than the last two seasons combined as well.
Jones - ( New Window )
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Looking at Jones's pre-Giants history is informative  
Go Terps : 1/27/2022 11:20 am : link
Of all the first round QBs drafted the last decade, Jones's college resume is one of or perhaps the worst. And before that he was a zero star recruit who had to walk on at Duke despite having prototypical size and being a good athlete.

Playing quarterback is really hard and requires some basic traits to be able to perform adequately in the NFL. Jones has always lacked those traits - instincts, vision, a quick mind.

He's unbelievably lucky he's made it this far and set himself up for life financially.

Brace yourself BBI...  
bw in dc : 1/27/2022 11:25 am : link
Based on what Mara said yesterday, Jones is locked in here for 2022 and 2023. The most passionate part of Mara's presser was his belief that he has failed Jones and Jones needs more continuity.

Well, Jones ain't getting that continuity in the first year with a new HC and OC. That continuity can only work if Jones gets two years under a new staff.

So get ready for more ordinary football from our ordinary QB who was over-drafted by a full round in 2019.
What Terps said is 100% correct  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 11:25 am : link
What was his high in college for touchdowns 22? There’s D3 QBs that put up double that amount. In that year 18 of them came in 5 games, and the opponents:

Northwestern (3)
Pitt (4)
North Carolina (3)
Georgia Tech (3)
Temple (5)

That’s very similar to what happened his rookie year.
RE: RE: Jones has physical talent  
Mike from Ohio : 1/27/2022 11:27 am : link
In comment 15577879 bigblue5611 said:
Quote:
In comment 15577861 Mike from Ohio said:


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I think he was more succesful in the Shurmur offense because it was more high risk / high reward. He was more productive, but also more prone to turnovers.

Judge and Garrett looked to reduce the turnovers (and compensate for the Oline deficiencies) so they made the offense more conservative. That reduced the turnovers but also the production.

To me what holds Jones back is his vision and his processing of information. He holds the ball too long and delivers the ball generally once he sees the receiver come open which in the NFL is generally too late. If you open up the offense you will bring the turnovers back.

Jones is not helped by the conservative scheme, but it is designed to hide some his flaws that show little evidence of improvement.



The thing I would say against that though is that his issue was fumbles, not INT's. He's cleaned up the fumbles considerably since his rookie year, even with the hits and sacks he's taken...


The main reason the fumbles dropped off is because the offense he has played in asks him to make quick reads and throw short routes to limit the time the ball is in his hands. If you go back to asking him to hold the ball while he reads the defense, you will see those fumble numbers go back up.

And this is the challenge with Jones. The good and the bad go hand in hand. The next OC is going to have to calibrate what level he can live with. That is not the way to win games consistently in the NFL.
RE: RE: Locking on one read  
Johnny5 : 1/27/2022 11:27 am : link
In comment 15577928 bigblue5611 said:
Quote:
I saw it mentioned a couple times so rather than replying to one specific post...

There are times I've seen him do it, there are other times I can see him scanning the field, going from right to left or vice versa and looking for the open man. Several instances in these highlights. Again, not an evaluator by any means so I don't know how correctable it is or if it's by design when he does, but I don't see it happen all the time.

I agree with this. I guess that's the question is that his doing or what the play called for. Honestly I have no idea what to think about him anymore. I feel like he can be a decent QB with an actual OL and scheme that fits him. I do wonder if he can be any more than an average NFL starter, really that's my question. I wouldn't bet money either way, with the terrible OL and seemingly horrible scheme fit, I'm just not sure how people can be so dead sure one way or the other.
bw  
bigblue5611 : 1/27/2022 11:28 am : link
I didn't get that sense from Schoen and I think you're overemphasizing Mara's words. I think Mara is saying he recognizes they've screwed the pooch the last couple years and have therefore hampered any development Jones MAY have been able to make.

I think they'll give him 2022 and see what happens then it will be Schoen and HC's call on whether or not to roll with him in 2023.
RE: RE: DJ was awesome his rookie year  
HomerJones45 : 1/27/2022 11:30 am : link
In comment 15577909 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 15577852 NYG007 said:


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Scheme was actually todays NFL



Awesome is a stretch. There were 3 good games and a lot of what were still seeing two years later
Bingo. DC's got film on DJ from season 1. You see the results.
RE: Brace yourself BBI...  
Lambuth_Special : 1/27/2022 11:30 am : link
In comment 15577964 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Based on what Mara said yesterday, Jones is locked in here for 2022 and 2023. The most passionate part of Mara's presser was his belief that he has failed Jones and Jones needs more continuity.

Well, Jones ain't getting that continuity in the first year with a new HC and OC. That continuity can only work if Jones gets two years under a new staff.


I hope Mara isn't planning on hiring Flores then, because based on what we've heard with regards to his relationship with Tua, he doesn't put up with substandard QB play.
RE: RE: RE: Jones has physical talent  
bigblue5611 : 1/27/2022 11:31 am : link
In comment 15577974 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:




The main reason the fumbles dropped off is because the offense he has played in asks him to make quick reads and throw short routes to limit the time the ball is in his hands. If you go back to asking him to hold the ball while he reads the defense, you will see those fumble numbers go back up.

And this is the challenge with Jones. The good and the bad go hand in hand. The next OC is going to have to calibrate what level he can live with. That is not the way to win games consistently in the NFL.


I haven't looked up the exact numbers, but I'd have to think he took the same amount of hits/sacks per game over the last 2 years as he did in his first year, if not more, but the fumbles went down. I don't think the longer drop backs are a direct correlation to the fumbles. I think he's just made long strides to better ball protection.

I again just want to say that I don't know if he'll be the long term answer, I hope he is, but I have no idea...
RE: RE: RE: DJ was awesome his rookie year  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 11:32 am : link
In comment 15577987 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
In comment 15577909 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


In comment 15577852 NYG007 said:


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Scheme was actually todays NFL



Awesome is a stretch. There were 3 good games and a lot of what were still seeing two years later

Bingo. DC's got film on DJ from season 1. You see the results.


And opening up the offense is going to lead to more disguised coverages that he won’t be able to read, that he didn’t see last year.
Anyone actually watch the train wreck this year?  
Spiciest Memelord : 1/27/2022 11:32 am : link
In hindsight, its a miracle he could pull out 4 wins out of his ass.
RE: RE: RE: Locking on one read  
bigblue5611 : 1/27/2022 11:33 am : link
In comment 15577975 Johnny5 said:
Quote:
In comment 15577928 bigblue5611 said:


Quote:


I saw it mentioned a couple times so rather than replying to one specific post...

There are times I've seen him do it, there are other times I can see him scanning the field, going from right to left or vice versa and looking for the open man. Several instances in these highlights. Again, not an evaluator by any means so I don't know how correctable it is or if it's by design when he does, but I don't see it happen all the time.


I agree with this. I guess that's the question is that his doing or what the play called for. Honestly I have no idea what to think about him anymore. I feel like he can be a decent QB with an actual OL and scheme that fits him. I do wonder if he can be any more than an average NFL starter, really that's my question. I wouldn't bet money either way, with the terrible OL and seemingly horrible scheme fit, I'm just not sure how people can be so dead sure one way or the other.


Completely agree with your last statement there, I don't know how people can say with 100% certainty whether he'll be good or bad. Could he be better than what we've seen? Obviously. But I think there's a lot of circumstances that played into that...
Case Keenum  
widmerseyebrow : 1/27/2022 11:35 am : link
looked like a starter in Shurmur's offense didn't he? Enough so that Denver signed him the following year. He reverted back to being Case Keenum and has been a backup ever since.
It’s been 11 years of mediocre to bad football for Jones  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 11:35 am : link
There hasn’t even been a stretch of three straight great games dating back to college. It’s not going to just magically happen.
RE: bw  
bw in dc : 1/27/2022 11:37 am : link
In comment 15577978 bigblue5611 said:
Quote:
I didn't get that sense from Schoen and I think you're overemphasizing Mara's words. I think Mara is saying he recognizes they've screwed the pooch the last couple years and have therefore hampered any development Jones MAY have been able to make.

I think they'll give him 2022 and see what happens then it will be Schoen and HC's call on whether or not to roll with him in 2023.


I hope you are right, and I am misjudging the situation. But this has gone on way too long with Jones and it is time to turn the page and give him an opportunity elsewhere.

Frankly, it should be an easy call for Schoen and the HC if they truly have the autonomy. If he can't make it, doubt creeps in for me if he's the right hire.

RE: It’s been 11 years of mediocre to bad football for Jones  
Scooter185 : 1/27/2022 11:45 am : link
In comment 15578013 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
There hasn’t even been a stretch of three straight great games dating back to college. It’s not going to just magically happen.


At this point to think Jones is going to suddenly become a good QB requires one to believe he's been held back by every coach and teammate he's ever had
RE: RE: It’s been 11 years of mediocre to bad football for Jones  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 11:53 am : link
In comment 15578055 Scooter185 said:
Quote:
In comment 15578013 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


There hasn’t even been a stretch of three straight great games dating back to college. It’s not going to just magically happen.



At this point to think Jones is going to suddenly become a good QB requires one to believe he's been held back by every coach and teammate he's ever had


Only twice in his NFL career has he thrown 2 or more touchdowns in back to back games. Only happened 3 times in college. He is what he is at this point. It’s not like he’s a guy like Lawrence who had 45 total TDS his sophomore year and struggled year 1. He’s never produced.
Scheme does not matter  
Chip : 1/27/2022 12:23 pm : link
if you can't protect the QB. Or in our case QBs from being beaten to death and not able to finish the year. Fix the OL nothing else matters.
RE: RE: DJ was awesome his rookie year  
rsjem1979 : 1/27/2022 12:24 pm : link
In comment 15577909 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 15577852 NYG007 said:


Quote:


Scheme was actually todays NFL



Awesome is a stretch. There were 3 good games and a lot of what were still seeing two years later


Broken down by time in the linked video:

13:02 total run time

-VS TB: 2:19
-VS DET: 1:10
-VS NYJ: 1:27
-VS WAS: 2:40

TOTAL: 7:36
OTHER 8 games: 5:26

That aside, with selective editing, you can put together a highlight video for any QB in the NFL. That's why you consider the entire body of work.








I think Garrett put the governers on Jones to stop turnovers...  
sb from NYT Forum : 1/27/2022 12:32 pm : link
...not sure if there was something he say in practice that lead to it, or his first few games in 2020 where he continued his high rate of turnovers, but it seemed that Garrett did not have trust in Jones to execute more than basic plays.

So I would say it's primarily scheme, but who knows if Jones can be efficient in a more complex playbook? All we know is that had too many turnovers in Shurmur's offense.
Shurmur's scheme was almost certainly  
Section331 : 1/27/2022 12:34 pm : link
better-suited for Jones's skill set, with a few caveats. First of all, most of his TD passes came in 4 games against awful pass defenses. Secondly, teams were able to get almost a full season of tape on him, and devise game plans to neutralize him.

A good NFL QB should be able to be successful in multiple schemes. Even then, if we brought Pat Shurmur back to design and implement an offense, there is little evidence that Jones would be as successful in it. Teams have figured out how to defend him. Pressure him from the edges (he never steps up in the pocket), and give him different pre-snap reads than the actual coverage. Until he figures things like that out, we could bring Don Coryell, Bill Walsh, and Vince Lombardi back from thee dead to build an offense and it wouldn't work.
...something Garrett SAW in practice I meant to say...  
sb from NYT Forum : 1/27/2022 12:35 pm : link
In comment 15578218 sb from NYT Forum said:
Quote:
...not sure if there was something he say in practice that lead to it, or his first few games in 2020 where he continued his high rate of turnovers, but it seemed that Garrett did not have trust in Jones to execute more than basic plays.

So I would say it's primarily scheme, but who knows if Jones can be efficient in a more complex playbook? All we know is that had too many turnovers in Shurmur's offense.
RE: Mentioned yesterday  
Section331 : 1/27/2022 12:40 pm : link
In comment 15577883 Costy16 said:
Quote:
Shurmur was a bad HC but his offensive system was something that Jones thrived in.

His rookie year he had double the TD to INT (24:12). Garrett's system was not only terrible, it was regressive. You combine that system with the atrocious OL play which negatively impacts the run game and Jones ability to scan the field, and you see the results this produced the last two years. THe Giants were squeezing the life out of the ball offensively.

This is why I'm not giving up on Jones yet, a new GM, coaching staff and offensive system. Let's see how the Giants address the OL and then go from there.

The one habit Jones needs to kick is locking onto the first read. That was a product of Cutcliffe's system at Duke and I feel it was something he fell back on with Garrett as the OC.


Wait, Cutcliffe designed an offense to have the QB stare at his intended WR? Come on, he has a reputation as a QB guru, and it isn't from having his QB's stare down receivers.

Jones stares down receivers because that is who he is. If it were merely Cutcliffe, why is Jones still doing it 4 years later?

And the Garrett bashing is beyond comical at this point. Look, he wasn't the OC I wanted, and I was very critical of him from the beginning, BUT he implemented and called any number of top 10 offenses in Dallas. The idea that he came to NY to run a pee wee league offense is ridiculous. Yes, personnel was a big part of the problem, but maybe that personnel problem included Daniel Jones.
Wait we drafted Jones in part because of  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 12:49 pm : link
The connection to QB guru Cutcliffe, who had a system that told Jones to lock on his first read?

The fantasy excuses are teaching lizard people levels.
I think Shurmur's scheme definitely helped  
Now Mike in MD : 1/27/2022 1:20 pm : link
but I also think JJ came in with a mentality of "let the defense win and do not let the offense lose the games." This was the case despite the fact that the D was perpetually failing to hold leads.

So I think it was drummed into DJ's head to be ultra conservative in his decision making to allow the D to win the games. You saw this mentality across the board with JJ's decision making, such as his refusal to go for it on 4th and short.

I think back to that throw DJ had to SS against Tampa, which was a very creative, daring, off schedule throw. He had a lot of gun slinger in him. And I've wondered where has that has that guy gone? Now some of that resulted in INTs, so his decision making did have to improve. But I feel like JJ's approach to winning football games completely neutered DJ
Hard to say  
Beer Man : 1/27/2022 1:54 pm : link
as both coaching staffs were saddled with really bad O-Lines. You can try to scheme to a QBs strengths, but when your OL is like a turnstile you don't see what the QB is capable/incapable of. I blame DG for not fixing the line.
Section  
cosmicj : 1/27/2022 2:01 pm : link
“ And the Garrett bashing is beyond comical at this point. Look, he wasn't the OC I wanted, and I was very critical of him from the beginning, BUT he implemented and called any number of top 10 offenses in Dallas. The idea that he came to NY to run a pee wee league offense is ridiculous. Yes, personnel was a big part of the problem, but maybe that personnel problem included Daniel Jones.”

Exactly. Is Garrett Bill Walsh? No. Is he incapable of implementing and calling a pretty routine and ok NFL system? Almost certainly not.
Jones was better in Shurmur's offense  
mfsd : 1/27/2022 2:24 pm : link
but every time I find myself trying to defend him as a player, I catch myself and remember if a QB is going to be a legit long term starter, it shouldn't require so much effort to defend him. It should be pretty obvious to the naked eye

Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, and Herbert don't require mental gymnastics to prove they are elite players. You just know it by watching them.

By all means let Jones play out his $8 million/year rookie deal next year, our 2022 cap is fooked anyway, but the search for a better replacement should have already started
RE: RE: DJ was awesome his rookie year  
k2tampa : 1/27/2022 2:56 pm : link
In comment 15577909 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 15577852 NYG007 said:


Quote:


Scheme was actually todays NFL



Awesome is a stretch. There were 3 good games and a lot of what were still seeing two years later


Jones may never be great, or maybe even good. But come on. You might not like it, but he put together what was at the time the second best season by a rookie QB. (Now third). And lets stop with the 3 good games crap. He had 5 games out of 12 over 300 yards (Eli had 3 in 16 games his first year as a starter after starting 7 games as a rookie). He completed 20 passes in all but one game. He threw 1 INT every 38 passes. His INT percentage was 2.6 (and has dropped each year). Manning's % went UP each of his first three years - from 3.1, to 3.4 and then 3.8 (Manning had 10 seasons with a higher INT % than Jones' rookie season). He only had three games with multiple INTs. (Manning had 5 his first year as a starter, again, after 7 starts as a rookie).

Now, I'm not trying to say he's Brady, so don't claim I am. But in 15 starts in his second year (his first as a starter), he had one 300 yard game and two others in the 250s. He completed 64% of his passes to Jones' 62%. He had 18 TDs and 12 INT with an INT% of 2.9.

And Herbert, everyone's fave, who now has the top rookie QB numbers ever, threw 25 percent more passes as a rookie and had 27 percent more TDs. One fewer TD for Herbert and they would have been dead even on TDs per pass.

Awesome compare to the best QBs in the game? Nope. But that's a ridiculous comparison for a rookie. But it's pretty damn good compared to other rookies. Third best of all time. Better than any of Eli's first three, maybe four years, and he did it with a whole lot less talent around him than Eli.
RE: RE: Locking on one read  
Section331 : 1/27/2022 3:03 pm : link
In comment 15577928 bigblue5611 said:
Quote:
I saw it mentioned a couple times so rather than replying to one specific post...

There are times I've seen him do it, there are other times I can see him scanning the field, going from right to left or vice versa and looking for the open man. Several instances in these highlights. Again, not an evaluator by any means so I don't know how correctable it is or if it's by design when he does, but I don't see it happen all the time.


From what I've seen (hardly an evaluator myself, although I did play QB in HS) he will scan the field more on intermediate to deep throws, where he has more time. It is when his primary target is a shorter route that he rushes things and tends to lock onto his target (ie, his INT in KC)
RE: RE: RE: DJ was awesome his rookie year  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 3:09 pm : link
In comment 15578664 k2tampa said:
Quote:
In comment 15577909 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


In comment 15577852 NYG007 said:


Quote:


Scheme was actually todays NFL



Awesome is a stretch. There were 3 good games and a lot of what were still seeing two years later



Jones may never be great, or maybe even good. But come on. You might not like it, but he put together what was at the time the second best season by a rookie QB. (Now third). And lets stop with the 3 good games crap. He had 5 games out of 12 over 300 yards (Eli had 3 in 16 games his first year as a starter after starting 7 games as a rookie). He completed 20 passes in all but one game. He threw 1 INT every 38 passes. His INT percentage was 2.6 (and has dropped each year). Manning's % went UP each of his first three years - from 3.1, to 3.4 and then 3.8 (Manning had 10 seasons with a higher INT % than Jones' rookie season). He only had three games with multiple INTs. (Manning had 5 his first year as a starter, again, after 7 starts as a rookie).

Now, I'm not trying to say he's Brady, so don't claim I am. But in 15 starts in his second year (his first as a starter), he had one 300 yard game and two others in the 250s. He completed 64% of his passes to Jones' 62%. He had 18 TDs and 12 INT with an INT% of 2.9.

And Herbert, everyone's fave, who now has the top rookie QB numbers ever, threw 25 percent more passes as a rookie and had 27 percent more TDs. One fewer TD for Herbert and they would have been dead even on TDs per pass.

Awesome compare to the best QBs in the game? Nope. But that's a ridiculous comparison for a rookie. But it's pretty damn good compared to other rookies. Third best of all time. Better than any of Eli's first three, maybe four years, and he did it with a whole lot less talent around him than Eli.


You’re comparing Jones to a rookie season from Eli that was 15 years before his, the game was different. Herbert had 8 300 yard games as a rookie, 10 multi touchdown games, and less interceptions in 25% more passes. Why was that left out? Jones only has 11 multi TD games in his career and only 6 300 yard passing games in his career.

Outside of those 5 games the other 7 games of his rookie year look a lot like the last two, which look a lot like his career at Duke. There’s nothing “awesome” about that season even by rookie standards.
RE: RE: It’s been 11 years of mediocre to bad football for Jones  
k2tampa : 1/27/2022 3:19 pm : link
In comment 15578055 Scooter185 said:
Quote:
In comment 15578013 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


There hasn’t even been a stretch of three straight great games dating back to college. It’s not going to just magically happen.



At this point to think Jones is going to suddenly become a good QB requires one to believe he's been held back by every coach and teammate he's ever had


Question(s). How many guys that Jones played with at Duke got signed (much less drafted) by an NFL team? Consider this, Skura was by far the best offensive lineman he played with (he left a year before Jones). Or try this, name one wide receiver he played with at Duke.

By your logic, Archie Manning stunk. He was 35-101 as a starter. Never had three great games in a row. Never played on a winning team. How the heck did they let him into the hall of fame?

By the way, Jones had a QB rating of over 100 in his first six games as a junior, with 5 of those being 123 or higher, 4 that were 150 or higher, and two in the 190s. That's a pretty damn good stretch for a QB, especially one throwing to nobodies.
I wonder?  
trueblueinpw : 1/27/2022 3:24 pm : link
If Jones’ only problem was scheme, I wonder why that didn’t occur to anyone on the Giants coaching staff? Like, maybe they would have thought about changing the scheme so Jones would start to win some games? Or maybe just change the scheme so Jones could throw some touchdowns?

I don’t want to give the Giants too much credit. But…I imagine they all were trying to come up with ways for Jones to find and replicate the elements of his rookie season which were successful.

🤔
Archie Manning played  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 3:29 pm : link
From 1971-1984 and isn’t in the Pro Football HOF, he’s in the College Football HOF.

Those college QB ratings don’t prove much because 150 is about average. For reference Stoud had an average of 186 and had 6 games over 200
Jones QB rating in 2018  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 3:34 pm : link
Was 65th in the country. Way behind Ridder. UMass’ QB was 8th, who was he throwing to?
Malik Willis had 7 games over 150  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 3:41 pm : link
Including 4 over 200. What would you call that?
RE: RE: RE: It’s been 11 years of mediocre to bad football for Jones  
rsjem1979 : 1/27/2022 3:47 pm : link
In comment 15578742 k2tampa said:
Quote:

By your logic, Archie Manning stunk. He was 35-101 as a starter. Never had three great games in a row. Never played on a winning team. How the heck did they let him into the hall of fame?


Have you considered the possibility that Archie Manning DID stink as an NFL QB?

He's also not in the Pro Football HOF, but why bother being accurate.
RE: RE: RE: RE: DJ was awesome his rookie year  
k2tampa : 1/27/2022 3:56 pm : link
In comment 15578715 ajr2456 said:
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In comment 15578664 k2tampa said:


Quote:


In comment 15577909 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


In comment 15577852 NYG007 said:


Quote:


Scheme was actually todays NFL



Awesome is a stretch. There were 3 good games and a lot of what were still seeing two years later



Jones may never be great, or maybe even good. But come on. You might not like it, but he put together what was at the time the second best season by a rookie QB. (Now third). And lets stop with the 3 good games crap. He had 5 games out of 12 over 300 yards (Eli had 3 in 16 games his first year as a starter after starting 7 games as a rookie). He completed 20 passes in all but one game. He threw 1 INT every 38 passes. His INT percentage was 2.6 (and has dropped each year). Manning's % went UP each of his first three years - from 3.1, to 3.4 and then 3.8 (Manning had 10 seasons with a higher INT % than Jones' rookie season). He only had three games with multiple INTs. (Manning had 5 his first year as a starter, again, after 7 starts as a rookie).

Now, I'm not trying to say he's Brady, so don't claim I am. But in 15 starts in his second year (his first as a starter), he had one 300 yard game and two others in the 250s. He completed 64% of his passes to Jones' 62%. He had 18 TDs and 12 INT with an INT% of 2.9.

And Herbert, everyone's fave, who now has the top rookie QB numbers ever, threw 25 percent more passes as a rookie and had 27 percent more TDs. One fewer TD for Herbert and they would have been dead even on TDs per pass.

Awesome compare to the best QBs in the game? Nope. But that's a ridiculous comparison for a rookie. But it's pretty damn good compared to other rookies. Third best of all time. Better than any of Eli's first three, maybe four years, and he did it with a whole lot less talent around him than Eli.



You’re comparing Jones to a rookie season from Eli that was 15 years before his, the game was different. Herbert had 8 300 yard games as a rookie, 10 multi touchdown games, and less interceptions in 25% more passes. Why was that left out? Jones only has 11 multi TD games in his career and only 6 300 yard passing games in his career.

Outside of those 5 games the other 7 games of his rookie year look a lot like the last two, which look a lot like his career at Duke. There’s nothing “awesome” about that season even by rookie standards.


And again, I said he may never even be considered good. My comments were about you saying his rookie year was not good. I'm comparing him to all rookie quarterbacks, including many who have played in the pass happy NFL of the last 25 years. It's crazy to say he didn't have a very good rookie year. So now instead of 3 it's 5 really good games out of 12. And how many games in the last two years has he had 20 completions? But again, we're talking about his first year.

Manning threw over 550 passes in his rookie season, to Jones' 455 in his 12 starts. That's about 36 times a game for Manning and 38 times a game for Jones. It's not like the Giants weren't throwing the ball in 2002.

If Jones could put put up his rookie number every year, he would finish his career as a good NFL QB. How many 12 INT or fewer years did Eli have? Two. He had 24 or more TDs in 7 of his 16 seasons. And there is no doubt Eli had way better talent around him than Jones has had.
I think a lot of this is Joe Judge wanting to basicall kill the clock  
ZogZerg : 1/27/2022 4:02 pm : link
as soon as the team gets the ball.
His conservative nature was trying to get to the 4th quarter in a close game. You can blame JG all you want, but it didn't change after he left. Granted, Jones got injured.

So, yes, Coaching played a big role in the mess that we watched the last 2 years. But, that doesn't mean Jones is or can be a good NFL starting QB.
5 good games accounted for  
ajr2456 : 1/27/2022 4:20 pm : link
Almost all of his touchdowns his rookie year. Sure the numbers on the surface may look good, but when you actually look underneath the surface there were major red flags in that season.


The red flags get brighter when you see his college years followed the same pattern and so did the last two years. 40% of his touchdowns this year came in 2 games. 73% of his TDs the year before came in just 4 of his 14 starts. 54% of his touchdowns his rookie year came 3 games.

Now look at his college stats:

Year 1: a majority came in 4 of his games, but more spread out
Year 2: 12 touchdowns in 6 games, 2 in the other 7
Year 3: 18 of 22 touchdowns in 5 of 11 games.

The same pattern has followed him the last 6 years. Good for a couple games out of the year, but mediocre to bad for the rest. We have plenty evidence to what Jones is.
Unless  
darren in pdx : 1/27/2022 4:40 pm : link
his neck is a career-ender, Jones will be the QB 2022. 2023 will either be a high draft pick or FA QB.
RE: DJ was awesome his rookie year  
GMen72 : 1/27/2022 6:27 pm : link
In comment 15577852 NYG007 said:
Quote:
Scheme was actually todays NFL


Barely 3000 yards, less than 2 TDs a game, and 23 turnovers. That's not awesome.
RE: 5 good games accounted for  
bw in dc : 1/27/2022 6:46 pm : link
In comment 15578864 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
Almost all of his touchdowns his rookie year. Sure the numbers on the surface may look good, but when you actually look underneath the surface there were major red flags in that season.


The red flags get brighter when you see his college years followed the same pattern and so did the last two years. 40% of his touchdowns this year came in 2 games. 73% of his TDs the year before came in just 4 of his 14 starts. 54% of his touchdowns his rookie year came 3 games.

Now look at his college stats:

Year 1: a majority came in 4 of his games, but more spread out
Year 2: 12 touchdowns in 6 games, 2 in the other 7
Year 3: 18 of 22 touchdowns in 5 of 11 games.

The same pattern has followed him the last 6 years. Good for a couple games out of the year, but mediocre to bad for the rest. We have plenty evidence to what Jones is.


Very good post. The teams Jones did well against in 2019 were Detroit, WFT, Tamps and NYJ. Detroit, WFT and Tampa were 26th, 27th and 29th, respectively, in PPG allowed. The Jets were 16th, and Jones fumbled 3X in that game.

The Bucs, meanwhile, were an historically bad D that year on the passing side. Everyone lit them up.

Now, Jones deserves credit for executing in those games. But outside those four games, he was very mediocre. In five of those games, btw, his QBRs were between 14-32. Just putrid play.
Scheme or philosophy?  
Dan in the Springs : 1/27/2022 6:52 pm : link
The mantra repeated during Judge's tenure was that every drive that ends in a kick is a successful drive. Regardless of scheme, if that is being coached repeatedly to you how likely are you to try to "throw open" a receiver, or thread a needle in the end zone? Even the slightest hesitation can cause an open receiver to be covered, or a misplacement/timing problem.

To me the biggest difference wasn't scheme (although there may have been problems there as well), it was the willingness to be aggressive with the ball and put it in play during his rookie year vs. the ones under Judge.
RE: Brace yourself BBI...  
djm : 1/27/2022 6:57 pm : link
In comment 15577964 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Based on what Mara said yesterday, Jones is locked in here for 2022 and 2023. The most passionate part of Mara's presser was his belief that he has failed Jones and Jones needs more continuity.

Well, Jones ain't getting that continuity in the first year with a new HC and OC. That continuity can only work if Jones gets two years under a new staff.

So get ready for more ordinary football from our ordinary QB who was over-drafted by a full round in 2019.


Childish take.
I would love to hear...  
Brown_Hornet : 1/27/2022 7:22 pm : link
... What Daniel Jones would have to say about it.

I think it would be interesting if he could truly be candid to hear what he has to say about the situations that he has faced in his stint as an NFL quarterback.
RE: I would love to hear...  
bw in dc : 1/27/2022 7:37 pm : link
In comment 15579111 Brown_Hornet said:
Quote:
... What Daniel Jones would have to say about it.

I think it would be interesting if he could truly be candid to hear what he has to say about the situations that he has faced in his stint as an NFL quarterback.


Jones is very good a taking the high road. This is the one characteristic he has in common with Eli.
I agree...  
Brown_Hornet : 1/27/2022 7:40 pm : link
... But I always like talking to players when they can be completely candid.
Not that I would get a chance to talk to Daniel Jones...

But talking to them especially after a season or in my case after graduation can be eye opening.

I'd love to hear what DJ has to say about each season.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 1/27/2022 7:42 pm : link
If the goal is to win a Super Bowl, the sooner we move on from Daniel Jones, the better.

I watched Burrow, Mahomes, & Allen this weekend. All are in same age bracket as Jones. And all are in a different stratosphere talent wise.
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 1/27/2022 7:44 pm : link
In comment 15579129 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
If the goal is to win a Super Bowl, the sooner we move on from Daniel Jones, the better.

I watched Burrow, Mahomes, & Allen this weekend. All are in same age bracket as Jones. And all are in a different stratosphere talent wise.


is there anyone in that talent stratosphere available in the draft this year?
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