for display only
Big Blue Interactive The Corner Forum  
Back to the Corner

Archived Thread

NGT: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah presser-analytics talk

Producer : 1/27/2022 9:55 pm
I watched most of his presser. Quite good. I wish Joe Schoen's presser was more like this. Kwesi is a thoughtful intelligent guy who doesn't just talk in hype-y platitudes.

Especially interesting is the analytics discussion which starts around 15:50. You can tell he knows his shit and will apply it in an interesting way.

At around 34 mins he talks about his admiration of Bill Walsh (who I think is the greatest coach of all-time though I hated the 49ers, I got to interview him once). And his comments on Walsh aren't just generic.


Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's Full Introductory Press Conference - ( New Window )
He will be an ineresting  
section125 : 1/27/2022 9:59 pm : link
one to watch.
Producer  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/27/2022 10:01 pm : link
I just listened at the 16 minute mark and that answer seemed to me not to be what the hardcore analytics people are talking about. He emphasized more "why are we doing things this way?" than talking about pure numbers. If anything, that seemed like more of an old school answer.

(Full disclosure... I think analytics is overrated. Football still comes down to if you can block and tackle and have a great quarterback).
RE: Producer  
rasbutant : 1/27/2022 10:09 pm : link
In comment 15579298 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
I just listened at the 16 minute mark and that answer seemed to me not to be what the hardcore analytics people are talking about. He emphasized more "why are we doing things this way?" than talking about pure numbers. If anything, that seemed like more of an old school answer.

(Full disclosure... I think analytics is overrated. Football still comes down to if you can block and tackle and have a great quarterback).


Problem with analytics is all players/teams are not created equal. Just because Tom Brady can make 8 of 10 4th down attempts doesn’t mean that Jake Frohm can.
RE: Producer  
Producer : 1/27/2022 10:14 pm : link
In comment 15579298 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
I just listened at the 16 minute mark and that answer seemed to me not to be what the hardcore analytics people are talking about. He emphasized more "why are we doing things this way?" than talking about pure numbers. If anything, that seemed like more of an old school answer.

(Full disclosure... I think analytics is overrated. Football still comes down to if you can block and tackle and have a great quarterback).


Yes.. he gives an interesting answer. But he talks a lot about why? and intention, which I take to mean he will go where the data points, from roster construction to on-field philosophy. So I think you can expect surprising choices about asset allocation and roster choices. What will they do with Cousins? When and how will they transition and what will be the QB strategy? How much will they spend on running and defense, something the Vikes prioritized. I bet that goes down.

He stresses data collection and intention. Which is a scientific approach.
RE: Producer  
Chocco : 1/27/2022 10:15 pm : link
In comment 15579298 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
I just listened at the 16 minute mark and that answer seemed to me not to be what the hardcore analytics people are talking about. He emphasized more "why are we doing things this way?" than talking about pure numbers. If anything, that seemed like more of an old school answer.

(Full disclosure... I think analytics is overrated. Football still comes down to if you can block and tackle and have a great quarterback).

Honestly people make the same mistake about science. It's about the numbers, the evidence not about "the why".
Good watch/listen...  
bw in dc : 1/27/2022 10:39 pm : link
Mensah really wants to blend traditional evaluation (scouting) with progressive ideas from analytics. And give both equal weight.

Liked how he said there is always a "blind spot" in the decision-making process, and he liked the exercise of always trying to identify and solve for that blind spot.

Good energy and different. I was impressed with Wilf, too. Wasn't looking to upstage Mensah. Instead, was there to support him and let him own the stage.

RE: Good watch/listen...  
Producer : 1/27/2022 10:44 pm : link
In comment 15579317 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Mensah really wants to blend traditional evaluation (scouting) with progressive ideas from analytics. And give both equal weight.

Liked how he said there is always a "blind spot" in the decision-making process, and he liked the exercise of always trying to identify and solve for that blind spot.

Good energy and different. I was impressed with Wilf, too. Wasn't looking to upstage Mensah. Instead, was there to support him and let him own the stage.


The Wilf family is kind of interesting. They are old time Giants fans from NJ and they worship Parcells and sort of modelled things after Parcells/Giants with Zimmer.
Producer...  
bw in dc : 1/27/2022 10:47 pm : link
I'm sure it didn't hurt that Mensah also went to Princeton, like Mark Wilf. ;)

RE: Producer...  
Producer : 1/27/2022 10:51 pm : link
In comment 15579327 bw in dc said:
Quote:
I'm sure it didn't hurt that Mensah also went to Princeton, like Mark Wilf. ;)


old boys club!
RE: Good watch/listen...  
DisgruntledNYGfan : 1/28/2022 12:18 am : link
In comment 15579317 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Mensah really wants to blend traditional evaluation (scouting) with progressive ideas from analytics. And give both equal weight.

Liked how he said there is always a "blind spot" in the decision-making process, and he liked the exercise of always trying to identify and solve for that blind spot.

Good energy and different. I was impressed with Wilf, too. Wasn't looking to upstage Mensah. Instead, was there to support him and let him own the stage.


I am all for this approach where analytics is part of the mix. The process should evolve. But what has been shown to work shouldn’t be cast aside for the next pseudoscience.

Some people get too carried away with analytics and it causes problems. Reese drafted plenty of “measureables” guys who were athletes but not players. In gameplay, analytics blows up in your face when you go for two and fail when the game is tied at six in the first half. PFF rankings are sometimes off because PFF rankings are based on incomplete data. In other words, methodology matters and the GIGO principle applies. Not football-related but there was a time when taking skull measurements was thought to scientifically predict propensity for criminal behavior.
Analytics ruined the Chargers season  
TroyArchersGhost : 1/28/2022 7:27 am : link
Analytics told the Chargers HC to keep going for it on 4th down, even deep in his own territory. I cost them a playoff berth.
It cost them  
TroyArchersGhost : 1/28/2022 7:27 am : link
I had nothing to do with it, I promise.
RE: Analytics ruined the Chargers season  
Mike in NY : 1/28/2022 7:33 am : link
In comment 15579451 TroyArchersGhost said:
Quote:
Analytics told the Chargers HC to keep going for it on 4th down, even deep in his own territory. I cost them a playoff berth.


Analytics can help you to a point, but you can’t be a slave to it. The numbers can say my winning percentage is greater if I do X rather than Y, but if that is predicated on having a competent defense and your defense is playing like crap then you need to adjust. Not to mention, unlike a sport like baseball, there are many more dependent variables in football. Success on offense is a lot different with Tom Brady at QB versus Jake Fromm. In addition, a player who misses 1 game with an injury is equivalent to about 9.5 games in baseball. If you lose your starting QB for even 1 game and you don’t have a 1/1A situation it is like trying to go through a major league season with 9.5 games from a AA starter.
RE: Producer  
mikeinbloomfield : 1/28/2022 7:38 am : link
In comment 15579298 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:


(Full disclosure... I think analytics is overrated. Football still comes down to if you can block and tackle and have a great quarterback).


LOL. WHat do you think analytics measures exactly? Player IQs?
mikeinbloomfield  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 9:00 am : link
I worked for an organization where management adopted analytics. It was a joke. Everyone cheated to make the numbers look good. It reminded me of the old Soviet-style system where middle managers constantly inflated their production quota numbers in order to catch the attention of senior management.

I'm not saying analytics doesn't have a place in football, but only where appropriate.

For some reason, Giants fans have adopted the mantra that THE reason this team is losing is because we are not modern enough.

The reason the Giants are losing is because the personnel sucks. It has sucked for a decade now.
Football needs analytics  
UberAlias : 1/28/2022 9:21 am : link
The human mind can't rationalize effectively in multi variable situations. We see this linear thinking playing out over and over right here in the GM and head coaching process as people rationalize things like "I like Daboll because he has a relationship with Schoen" or "I prefer Flores because he has prior head coaching experience." Most decisions in football are highly multi variabled such as evaluating draft prospects on many many qualities to decisions to punt or go for it, etc. Truth is machines are just better at weeding through the variability when the right models are applied. That won't replace human thinking, just like machines don't replace human jobs, but they do transform them are reprioritize what skills are in demand. Question here is how soon will this transformation take. It won't happen overnight, but it will happen.
RE: mikeinbloomfield  
uconn18 : 1/28/2022 9:22 am : link
In comment 15579572 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
I worked for an organization where management adopted analytics. It was a joke. Everyone cheated to make the numbers look good. It reminded me of the old Soviet-style system where middle managers constantly inflated their production quota numbers in order to catch the attention of senior management.

I'm not saying analytics doesn't have a place in football, but only where appropriate.

For some reason, Giants fans have adopted the mantra that THE reason this team is losing is because we are not modern enough.

The reason the Giants are losing is because the personnel sucks. It has sucked for a decade now.

That sounds like an example of people cheating the analytics systems, and they weren’t held accountable.
Same can be said with coaching, “yea we’re teaching this Ereck Flowers kid to block real good” - that’ll make the coaching and the player sound think they’re doing a good job.
So obviously coaching isn’t “overrated”, it’s just that these systems - coaching, analytics, player eval etc must be implemented in a way that the sole purpose is team success. No making anyone look “good”.
uconn18  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 9:32 am : link
We're talking thousands of people.

It's human nature to cheat in such a situation. Everyone wants to look good. By the time I left that organization, the numbers were so ridiculous that the analytics system collapsed on itself. Even senior management ignored it.

There is something wired in the minds of certain types of people that they can turn people into machines and perform logically like Spock. Humans don't work that way.

Let's take the most fan popular conception of analytics... when to go for it in certain down and distances. That makes no sense when you accept the human emotional element. Is the defense surging? Is the offense having confidence issues? How fired up is the crowd? It also doesn't take into account personnel issues. Does your offensive line and running back have a history of struggling in short yardage?

Why was Parcells a brilliant coach? He could FEEL the game. He knew when to have Gary Reasons run in punt formation. He knew when to have Jeff Rutledge QB sneak it near midfield in the Super Bowl on 4th down.
People can argue all they want  
GNewGiants : 1/28/2022 9:35 am : link
but analytics and the over use of them screwed over Herbert and the Chargers this year. Staley cost his team a playoff chance.
RE: uconn18  
uconn18 : 1/28/2022 9:57 am : link
In comment 15579621 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
We're talking thousands of people.

It's human nature to cheat in such a situation. Everyone wants to look good. By the time I left that organization, the numbers were so ridiculous that the analytics system collapsed on itself. Even senior management ignored it.

There is something wired in the minds of certain types of people that they can turn people into machines and perform logically like Spock. Humans don't work that way.

Let's take the most fan popular conception of analytics... when to go for it in certain down and distances. That makes no sense when you accept the human emotional element. Is the defense surging? Is the offense having confidence issues? How fired up is the crowd? It also doesn't take into account personnel issues. Does your offensive line and running back have a history of struggling in short yardage?

Why was Parcells a brilliant coach? He could FEEL the game. He knew when to have Gary Reasons run in punt formation. He knew when to have Jeff Rutledge QB sneak it near midfield in the Super Bowl on 4th down.

I completely agree with the human nature aspect, to exaggerate results to management - my point is that I don’t think that started with analytics, I think humans have been doing that forever.

I also think that the down and distance thing is such a small part part of analytics, if what they were doing was as simple as win probabilities based on down and distances there wouldn’t be whole department doing analytics. You also said it’s a “fan conception” so I think we’re on the same page that that’s not what it’s limited to.

I think the way coaches develop feel for the game is through watching tons of game film, where they are inherently picking up on trends and probabilities of success. Not all that different from what analytics are doing, granted they may not quantify the data in the same way say a “data scientist” does.
uconn18  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 10:00 am : link
But haven't coaches been studying game film to pick up trends for decades now? Both their own trends the trends of other teams? They have even hired people to do that work (offensive and defensive quality control coaches).

I guess people use the word analytics without actually thinking what it means. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah even said he stood up and said, "I don't know what 'analytics' means."
RE: People can argue all they want  
uconn18 : 1/28/2022 10:02 am : link
In comment 15579628 GNewGiants said:
Quote:
but analytics and the over use of them screwed over Herbert and the Chargers this year. Staley cost his team a playoff chance.

Yea I’m just glad we had Joe Judge this past year ignoring the analytics.
Much rather be 4-13, than root for a team that was 9-8 and improved their record every year for the past 3 years.

Hopefully the Giants don’t take that route!
I’m assuming when the coaches “feel” costs them a game your equally hard on that method.
uconn18  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 10:05 am : link
I don't know if Judge ignored it or not. Seriously.

I know a bunch of Giants fans were pissed at him for not going for it more on 4th-and-2, but damn, if Matt Skura was your left guard, Billy Price your center, and Nate Solder your left tackle, with hit-and-miss play by Hernandez, I'm not sure I would have gone for it either.

This is kind of what I'm getting at.... if your personnel sucks (really sucks), analytics isn't going to help you.
Solder  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 10:06 am : link
right tackle
RE: uconn18  
uconn18 : 1/28/2022 10:10 am : link
In comment 15579677 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
But haven't coaches been studying game film to pick up trends for decades now? Both their own trends the trends of other teams? They have even hired people to do that work (offensive and defensive quality control coaches).

I guess people use the word analytics without actually thinking what it means. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah even said he stood up and said, "I don't know what 'analytics' means."

Yea I think that’s right, and why the line often gets blurred for some of these guys.
But overall, I’d say quantifying data can be good in some situations, because often our emotions can skew our perspective of what’s “real”, and numbers can sometimes keep us grounded in the truth.

Now someone like Belicheck, who appears to be very calculated/non emotional in his thinking process may have less of an issue with this than a coach that’s a bit more of a hothead.
RE: uconn18  
Producer : 1/28/2022 10:15 am : link
In comment 15579677 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
But haven't coaches been studying game film to pick up trends for decades now? Both their own trends the trends of other teams? They have even hired people to do that work (offensive and defensive quality control coaches).

I guess people use the word analytics without actually thinking what it means. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah even said he stood up and said, "I don't know what 'analytics' means."


Yes. Coaches have done that to a point. And I would agree that when they do, that is an analytical approach. But in general, the entire league, has been conservative, and late to adopting these approaches. And it is not just going for it on 4th, or going for two points, it's the entire offensive and defensive mind set and play calling. As well as roster construction. We still have teams allocating resources in the wrong place. It took 30 years, or more, for going for it on 4th became an acceptable practice. Coaches are afraid to make the call that fans and the media can use to smear them. That is why Staley is so interesting. He is safe, for now, adopting an aggressively analytical approach.
RE: mikeinbloomfield  
mikeinbloomfield : 1/28/2022 10:42 am : link
In comment 15579572 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
I worked for an organization where management adopted analytics. It was a joke. Everyone cheated to make the numbers look good. It reminded me of the old Soviet-style system where middle managers constantly inflated their production quota numbers in order to catch the attention of senior management.

I'm not saying analytics doesn't have a place in football, but only where appropriate.

For some reason, Giants fans have adopted the mantra that THE reason this team is losing is because we are not modern enough.

The reason the Giants are losing is because the personnel sucks. It has sucked for a decade now.


Saying "blocking and tackling is more important than analytics" is a fundamental misunderstanding of what they do. Analysis of "advanced" statistics in football seeks to quantify what until now was only based on human observation and use that analysis to make smart decisions. So you have some factual basis to judge whether the team is blocking and tackling well, and more importantly why. The teams using analytics are also trying to find insights that other teams do not, especially when it comes to acquiring players. Anyone who has read Football Outsiders is familiar with these kind of analyses, although I doubt teams are using the same analyses.

It's also pretty funny to keep bringing up the Chargers game. These gametime decisions stats only try to present the choice that has the best chance for success. An choice that has a 80% chance of success still leaves a 20% chance of failure. Fundamental misunderstanding.
mikeinbloomfield  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 10:44 am : link
That seems like a word salad to me.

Give me a specific example. What are you talking about?
KAM  
Essex : 1/28/2022 10:48 am : link
Is brilliant and a former athlete and, while I am not saying we should have hired him, it is mind boggling to me that we did not bring him in to hear his case. But, it is what it is.
RE: mikeinbloomfield  
mikeinbloomfield : 1/28/2022 10:57 am : link
In comment 15579828 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
That seems like a word salad to me.

Give me a specific example. What are you talking about?


Here's a link to ESPN's advanced analytics for win rates for offensive and defensive lines. I am not saying teams use these exact stats, but they probably have something like it.

So, they seek to show exactly who's doing a good job on these lines. And already, you can see some usefulness. Josh Sweat from the Eagles is third this season in win rate. Maxx Crosby is 10th. Both are very good players, but Sweat that high up on the list is a little surprising to me. Crosby get's a lot of press. Let's pretend they are both free agents. Let's also pretend that that win rate translates to sacks eventually.

Crosby is asking for $20 million, and Sweat is asking for $18 million. Who do you choose, based on the analysis? Who would you have chosen had you not known about win rate?
2021 NFL pass-rushing, run-stopping, blocking leaderboard: Win rate rankings - ( New Window )
mikeinbloomfield  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 11:01 am : link
But coaches already were tracking that. For example, 20, 30 years ago teams tracked which OL was getting beat and how often. They know if their DE is getting to the QB or not.

Now if the argument here is this is simply a more comprehensive and/or detailed way to track that, I get that.

But let's not pretend this wasn't done before. Teams haven't just scouted other teams for decades but they have self-scouted as well. As long as there have been bye weeks, I can recall all coaches saying they were going to spend the bye week to do more self-scouting.
mikeinbloomfield  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 11:04 am : link
I guess what I'm getting at is this too, in its most simplistic form.

Coaches know that Michael Strahan was a better player than Dave Tollefson. The film told them that.
also  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 11:08 am : link
Joe Judge had FOUR quality control coaches, twice the number the team historically has carried.
RE: mikeinbloomfield  
mikeinbloomfield : 1/28/2022 11:11 am : link
In comment 15579882 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
But coaches already were tracking that. For example, 20, 30 years ago teams tracked which OL was getting beat and how often. They know if their DE is getting to the QB or not.

Now if the argument here is this is simply a more comprehensive and/or detailed way to track that, I get that.

But let's not pretend this wasn't done before. Teams haven't just scouted other teams for decades but they have self-scouted as well. As long as there have been bye weeks, I can recall all coaches saying they were going to spend the bye week to do more self-scouting.


Maybe, but again a lot of that was measured by observation and opinion, which are inherently unreliable.

But the second part of my example is more important. Teams have to constantly analyize the stats to find arbitrage. The good teams find stats, or sets of stats, that tell them something about a player that other teams do not know. For example, a team might have an analysis that tells them player b will have 10 sacks in the pros when he never had higher than 3 in college. That team would get an edge rusher in round 5 that would have been worth a second round pick. Value.

Adofo-Mensah comes from a background and experience where, if you find a competitive advantage using stats analysis, your company can make billions of dollars. They same type of people run the Tampa Bay Rays, who seem to continually find good players other teams do not. That's not an accident.
mikeinbloomfield  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 11:19 am : link
What I heard Kwesi Adofo-Mensah say was that he wasn't an analytics guy, that it had to be explained to him, and he now uses it to complement what he has been doing. I didn't hear him say, analytics is the bomb.

To be honest, I don't know much about him. Perhaps he's gone full bore analytics and is down-playing it. But that's what I heard him say in that presser.

You and I are just going to disagree on this. It's why I have an issue with PFF. Numbers don't tell the whole story. The why things happen also matter (scheme, player assignments, etc.) Look at Blake Martinez. The reputation he had coming here his tackle numbers were inflated in Green Bay because the bulk of them came down the field. Giants fans bought into that narrative until he came here, and in a different system, led the team in tackles and made plays AT the line of scrimmage. The whys matter.
Judge and the Giants used plenty of game-day analytics.  
Jimmy Googs : 1/28/2022 11:28 am : link
Adding onto what Eric was suggesting above...

When you plug in the variables of having a broken down Barkley in the backfield, no receivers worth throwing to, and an offensive line containing Solder, Price, Skura and Hernandez on it, these two recommended plays came back the most:

* QB sneak
* Punt
RE: mikeinbloomfield  
mikeinbloomfield : 1/28/2022 11:28 am : link
In comment 15579918 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
What I heard Kwesi Adofo-Mensah say was that he wasn't an analytics guy, that it had to be explained to him, and he now uses it to complement what he has been doing. I didn't hear him say, analytics is the bomb.

To be honest, I don't know much about him. Perhaps he's gone full bore analytics and is down-playing it. But that's what I heard him say in that presser.

You and I are just going to disagree on this. It's why I have an issue with PFF. Numbers don't tell the whole story. The why things happen also matter (scheme, player assignments, etc.) Look at Blake Martinez. The reputation he had coming here his tackle numbers were inflated in Green Bay because the bulk of them came down the field. Giants fans bought into that narrative until he came here, and in a different system, led the team in tackles and made plays AT the line of scrimmage. The whys matter.


Adofo-Mensah was a commodities trader at Credit Suisse. He DEFINATELY tried to figure out what the price of gold (or whatever) really should be using very, very, very advanced stats. Getting it right meant millions, at least. Then he was basically director of analytics in San Fran, not coincidentally home to Silicon Valley. He may be downplaying it because maybe people are uncomfortable with "computers" making decisions, which is not what happens anyway. You take it into account like everything else.

In your Blake Martinez example, what the Giants should be trying to do is find the Blake Martinez who is not the leading tackler on his former team, but he has the potential to be the leading tackler on the Giants because of what we know about him through analysis. That player would have been a lot cheaper.
mikeinbloomfield  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 1/28/2022 11:33 am : link
Interesting background on him.

You and I could back and forth on this all day. I'll just say that "analysis" has always been part of football. People are analyzing everything. It's what everyone in football organizations do. Bill Parcells did it. Ray Handley did it. Jim Fassell did it. Etc. Some are better at it than others.

Someone would have to sit me down and actually show me what you are talking about. Because the things you say that need to be done already seem to be occurring. And yes, I do think there is a risk if numbers simply drive the process because they don't tell the whole story. I don't buy that there is some sort of "analytics" that can do a better job than a group of scouts in evaluating the pros and cons of Blake Martinez's game. If that were true, there would be no need for scouts. Football would be easy. It would be all math.
RE: mikeinbloomfield  
mikeinbloomfield : 1/28/2022 11:44 am : link
In comment 15579939 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
Interesting background on him.

You and I could back and forth on this all day. I'll just say that "analysis" has always been part of football. People are analyzing everything. It's what everyone in football organizations do. Bill Parcells did it. Ray Handley did it. Jim Fassell did it. Etc. Some are better at it than others.

Someone would have to sit me down and actually show me what you are talking about. Because the things you say that need to be done already seem to be occurring. And yes, I do think there is a risk if numbers simply drive the process because they don't tell the whole story. I don't buy that there is some sort of "analytics" that can do a better job than a group of scouts in evaluating the pros and cons of Blake Martinez's game. If that were true, there would be no need for scouts. Football would be easy. It would be all math.


You'll always need scouts. As Schoen says, you have to get to know a player, his motivation, his interest in football, etc. in addition to his performance.

Last example: A scout says, "Player A sacked the QB 20 times the last two years, he runs a 4.4 and is 250 pounds. We should get him."

Someone like Adofo-Mensah says, "We believe Player B will have a great chance to get 20 sacks over the next two years, even though he has had none the last two years, because players who get 20 sacks have the same win rate, shuttle times, and fall in this range of 40 yard dash times as this player. We can save $10 million a year on his contract because everyone's looking only at his sack numbers."

Simplified, and probably not an actual case, but I hope you get the idea.

RE: mikeinbloomfield  
Producer : 1/28/2022 11:46 am : link
In comment 15579918 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
What I heard Kwesi Adofo-Mensah say was that he wasn't an analytics guy, that it had to be explained to him, and he now uses it to complement what he has been doing. I didn't hear him say, analytics is the bomb.

To be honest, I don't know much about him. Perhaps he's gone full bore analytics and is down-playing it. But that's what I heard him say in that presser.

You and I are just going to disagree on this. It's why I have an issue with PFF. Numbers don't tell the whole story. The why things happen also matter (scheme, player assignments, etc.) Look at Blake Martinez. The reputation he had coming here his tackle numbers were inflated in Green Bay because the bulk of them came down the field. Giants fans bought into that narrative until he came here, and in a different system, led the team in tackles and made plays AT the line of scrimmage. The whys matter.


I think he wasn't saying that he doesn't know analytics, I think he was saying he isn't an analytics guy in the sense that the media and the uninitiated view the term. There is a lot of misunderstanding of the term and I think he wants to be clear that for him it is using data for an intentional and systematic approach. He says he was a quant guy when he was hired by SF and one of his first projects was an analysis of every team. He knows what analytics is, he just doesn't want to be limited by the term. That is my take, anyway.
RE: mikeinbloomfield  
Producer : 1/28/2022 11:48 am : link
In comment 15579939 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
Interesting background on him.

You and I could back and forth on this all day. I'll just say that "analysis" has always been part of football. People are analyzing everything. It's what everyone in football organizations do. Bill Parcells did it. Ray Handley did it. Jim Fassell did it. Etc. Some are better at it than others.

Someone would have to sit me down and actually show me what you are talking about. Because the things you say that need to be done already seem to be occurring. And yes, I do think there is a risk if numbers simply drive the process because they don't tell the whole story. I don't buy that there is some sort of "analytics" that can do a better job than a group of scouts in evaluating the pros and cons of Blake Martinez's game. If that were true, there would be no need for scouts. Football would be easy. It would be all math.


Most coaches and certainly successful ones have some sort of analysis in their process. But most, until recently, don't go where the science takes them. Most just go with hunches. Parcells was a hunch guy. Maybe some of his decisions were in sync with science, but he didn't root them in science. Walsh was more of a science guy. Anyway, that's my hunch ;)
RE: uconn18  
Dankbeerman : 1/28/2022 12:37 pm : link
In comment 15579690 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
I don't know if Judge ignored it or not. Seriously.

I know a bunch of Giants fans were pissed at him for not going for it more on 4th-and-2, but damn, if Matt Skura was your left guard, Billy Price your center, and Nate Solder your left tackle, with hit-and-miss play by Hernandez, I'm not sure I would have gone for it either.

This is kind of what I'm getting at.... if your personnel sucks (really sucks), analytics isn't going to help you.


I feel like analitics should give you a green light on an in game situation but the decision should be based on the offensive staff when installing the gameplan early in the week.

Someone should say this is their weakness or this is a matchup we can exploit if need too on a 4th and 2. By then end of the week the coach should have an idea of how well his team can execute and then in game see how its playing out.

Analytics should be an info dump not a decision maker
Back to the Corner