lost in a lot of the discussion re: bradberry are 2 things:
1. schoen is playing the situation out like he believes Bradberry has positive value @ a 13.5m cap hit. or else he'd have cut him like Ryan when there were still viable replacement options on the FA market (like say Anthony Averett who got a 1 year deal for 3.3m or Levi Wallace who got 2 years 8m).
2. since they didn't the nyg have very little rush to get space until July, which is coincidentally brutal timing for FA to get FMV bc league wide cap space is limited with all teams maxing out their 90 man rosters for camp. so bradberry is on the hook to lose some money (let's say $3-5m or so less than the 13.4m base he's set to make right now).
so if we take those 2 things together, what's schoen's plan? here's my guess.
plan a - pursue a trade. and taken a step further, let his agent pursue a trade and gauge his market. you can bet Bradberry's agent is the most motivated/incentivized person on the planet to get Bradberry the most money, and knowing there's a threat of lost money both he and the nyg are mutually aligned in finding the team that most values bradberry.
plan b - this is the step i think most are overlooking. in the event plan a hasn't come to fruition, Bradberry and his agent are now incentivized to do some kind of deal with the nyg bc they know if they don't they are at risk to lose money. remember in this scenario they have already spent months exhausting conversations around the league to find a home for him at his current cap # and havent. entering the market at a bad time it's only logical to expect they won't be able to get whole. but since we know schoen thinks he is a positive value asset at 13.5m, it may be that the team that values him most is the one he's on. so what does a deal with the nyg look like? i'd guess they add 1 or 2 years on his deal and flatten his cap hits down around 10-13m per year. Bradberry gets some security and cash in hand that equals what he was set to make this year, nyg get 8-10m in cap savings and get to keep a premium position player at a reasonable number, similar to what they did with shepard/martinez.
plan c - cut Bradberry in July. this is plan C because i think it's the most unlikely, though not impossible. im pretty sure the only way this ends up the outcome is if Bradberry really doesn't want to be here. reading between the lines on the Logan Ryan cut, I think they gave him the choice of staying or leaving at equivalent cap impacts. i also think they let him/his agent gauge the market out there to make that decision - which is likely how he had such a quick deal in Tampa. and even with almost no savings the nyg were ok letting him walk bc he didn't want to be here. if they truly didn't want Ryan the better move would have been to cut him earlier to hope to recoup as much cap room as possible via offset.
so net-net what i think is happening behind the scenes right now is schoen has told bradberry's agent he values him but can't carry the 20m cap hit so they either need to find a suitable trade or work out an extension.
and every day that goes by with cap space drying up and without his agent being able to find interested parties schoen gets a little more leverage for potential extension talks. i'd probably still guess he gets dealt at the draft to a team who misses out on the CB they want early, but if he sticks past the draft my guess would shift to extension.
1 other note - post June 1 trading Adoree Jackson would save $10.7m against the cap this year per otc. He has 1 extra year on his contract, is a year younger than Bradberry, and slightly cheaper for an acquiring team. It would not shock me to see the nyg elect to trade Jackson for a 2023 pick and extend Bradberry because in combination those 2 moves could save close to $20m against the cap this year while also adding a future pick if they end up unable to get one for Bradberry.
It's a staring match
It's a staring match
I don't know. Maybe a team wants to give up a mid to late pick to be sure they get him as opposed to trying their luck against competition when he's released.
I think on draft day, a playoff caliber team will look at whose left on the board at some point during day 2 and realize trading a 3rd/4th for JB is the best move
Especially in the AFC...it’s really becoming an arms race. Teams are going to need DB’s with all of the QB/WR talent over there.
Also whoever signs Bradberry can rework his contract by an extension lowering his cap.
I think on draft day, a playoff caliber team will look at whose left on the board at some point during day 2 and realize trading a 3rd/4th for JB is the best move
Especially in the AFC...it’s really becoming an arms race. Teams are going to need DB’s with all of the QB/WR talent over there.
that's how i see it, and especially if the nyg have drafted Gardner there may be a compromise where the nyg take a day 3 pick this year and a better pick next year.
I like Eric’s idea of adored being a backup plan too.
If they’re desperate for cap space and Bradberry won’t play ball. Keep him and get the comp pick when he leaves next year. And extend Leo a year for the cap savings. Not ideal, but workable.
I like that we have options at least.
It's a staring match
This is a common line of thinking, but the reason why you might trade for someone who may be cut is that you guaranty the acquisition as opposed to competing with others once he is cut.
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When they know we're going to have to cut him
It's a staring match
I don't know. Maybe a team wants to give up a mid to late pick to be sure they get him as opposed to trying their luck against competition when he's released.
Period!
Jackson on one side plus J. Williams, Rodarius Williams, Aaron Robinson and Darnay Holmes, plus any draftee.
It could be that at least one of that group is ready to step forward into a starting role and that conviction (or the absence of same) will impact the way they play their hand.
And whether they think they can compete for the division next year might factor into it too. I know all the talk on BBI about how bad they are and how many years before they're competitive, but like so many "Talmudic truth's" toted here, "it ain't necessarily so".
Jackson on one side plus J. Williams, Rodarius Williams, Aaron Robinson and Darnay Holmes, plus any draftee.
It could be that at least one of that group is ready to step forward into a starting role and that conviction (or the absence of same) will impact the way they play their hand.
And whether they think they can compete for the division next year might factor into it too. I know all the talk on BBI about how bad they are and how many years before they're competitive, but like so many "Talmudic truth's" toted here, "it ain't necessarily so".
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When they know we're going to have to cut him
It's a staring match
This is a common line of thinking, but the reason why you might trade for someone who may be cut is that you guaranty the acquisition as opposed to competing with others once he is cut.
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In comment 15642125 GiantsRage2007 said:
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When they know we're going to have to cut him
It's a staring match
This is a common line of thinking, but the reason why you might trade for someone who may be cut is that you guaranty the acquisition as opposed to competing with others once he is cut.
I never understand why people don't see this.
Oh I see it. I also see he's still on the Giants... so I guess nobody feels compelled to give anything up
(yet that is...)
Hate to be shopping early for CBs although Sauce Gardner is really growing on me...
IMO Schoen should of cut Bradberry a week ago and saved the 2 million on the guarantees. Instead he’s playing hardball hoping he can get a high draft for him, when the market is dictating a 6 round pick for him.
he played more man coverage than any other CB in CFB.
never gave up a TD in 3 years.
and he has elite size/length for the position, which is a pretty common trait in most Bills draft picks under Beane/Schoen. Edmunds and Rousseau being the notables there.
would have liked to see him do more drills at the combine but he ran faster than Surtain last year, also measured 1 inch taller with 1 inch longer arms, and Surtain looks like he's gonna be a perennial all pro.
Jackson has been more injury prone and less physical. I'd choose Bradberry over him for the next 2 seasons all things equal.
IMO Schoen should of cut Bradberry a week ago and saved the 2 million on the guarantees. Instead he’s playing hardball hoping he can get a high draft for him, when the market is dictating a 6 round pick for him.
if Bradberry gets cut he is going to get more than 2m, so the money the nyg guaranteed him will be offset and not impact their cap.
Maybe Darnay Holmes and Aaron Robinson take big steps.
Better get that checked out, Cogswell. Just sayin'...
I dont think we can trade Adoree, his dead cap would put us under water I believe. Cap hit at $15 Mil Dead Cap at $18 Mil.
I think we will get something for JB, it might be a conditional pick next year the longer we wait. i would like to restructure or maybe add some void years. to get the cap better. We cant replace everyone with a draft pick. We are barely at a full roster right now and still have quite a few starting spots open.
It's a staring match
Philadelphia would have gotten three 1's for him.
I think on draft day, a playoff caliber team will look at whose left on the board at some point during day 2 and realize trading a 3rd/4th for JB is the best move
Especially in the AFC...it’s really becoming an arms race. Teams are going to need DB’s with all of the QB/WR talent over there.
I think this is it. Draft day, team doesnt get the CBs they targeted or love the CBs left.. has cap space and trades a 4th or 5th for bradberry
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Sauce Gardner is really growing on me...
Better get that checked out, Cogswell. Just sayin'...
I'll be alright. If it was Evan Neal growing on me then we would have a problem.
Yours truly
Jimmy Cogswell Cogs
This is a great chance to enact the Bill Belichick policy - move a good, older player right at that point where diminishing returns is very likely imminent.
Be smart. Play the odds and find a trade partner or cut Bradberry. We got a great year from him and a pretty good year from him. But that added no value to additional wins.
Good post, nonetheless, by the OP laying out the situations.
It's a staring match
Giants don't have to cut him.
Very good post, Eric. Agreed that it is 1 of the first two options. Bradberry is too good a player to cut for nothing.
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In comment 15642162 NYG22 said:
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In comment 15642125 GiantsRage2007 said:
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When they know we're going to have to cut him
It's a staring match
This is a common line of thinking, but the reason why you might trade for someone who may be cut is that you guaranty the acquisition as opposed to competing with others once he is cut.
I never understand why people don't see this.
Oh I see it. I also see he's still on the Giants... so I guess nobody feels compelled to give anything up
(yet that is...)
As people have mentioned they can get the player before all other team would compete for the player. What hasn't been mentioned is that the he would get a brand new shiny contract after teams compete to sign him (which drives his price up). In other words, in trading for him, it would cost draft pick/s but he would be cheaper against a team's salary cap. I'm sure they have gotten offers but there are plenty of reasons for the Giants to hold out as well.
They have to answer the question as to why his play bottomed out in 2021. It's naive to nonchalantly assume he's a bona fide no. 1 corner.
You can't responsibly ignore what happened when a guy leads the league in TDs surrendered, and is 3rd in the league in yards surrendered.
The material change between 2020 and 2021 for the Giants is they went from a top 10 team in pass rush pressure to a bottom 10 team. How did this factor into his play YoY? Was he banged up? Has he lost a step?
I have every belief the Giants and the league value Bradberry in line with his performance, not reputation.
If he was a clear cut no. 1 deserving of that money, this would be cleared up already.
They have to answer the question as to why his play bottomed out in 2021. It's naive to nonchalantly assume he's a bona fide no. 1 corner.
You can't responsibly ignore what happened when a guy leads the league in TDs surrendered, and is 3rd in the league in yards surrendered.
The material change between 2020 and 2021 for the Giants is they went from a top 10 team in pass rush pressure to a bottom 10 team. How did this factor into his play YoY? Was he banged up? Has he lost a step?
I have every belief the Giants and the league value Bradberry in line with his performance, not reputation.
If he was a clear cut no. 1 deserving of that money, this would be cleared up already.
sort of disagree.
they've already self-scouted Bradberry and assessed that his value is positive at 13.5m. or else there'd be nothing to talk about and he would have been cut 2 weeks ago.
so we are picking things up from there. there are still a lot of big dominoes falling around the league and if he played better perhaps Bradberry would have been closer to the front of that line.
I think there’s a single digit percent chance the Giants value 2022 at a 13.5M cash value.
I think there’s a single digit percent chance the Giants value 2022 at a 13.5M cash value.
it doesn't presume anything except that they didn't keep him for no reason, and forgo being able to find a cheaper replacement in FA last week.
there is no way they do that if they don't believe his market value to be net positive 13.5m. if they knew it was a lost cause or that he wasn't a fit here they'd have quite literally 10x the incentive in terms of cap savings to move on from him as they did with Logan Ryan in terms of savings vs. being on the roster.
Hate to be shopping early for CBs although Sauce Gardner is really growing on me...
I never thought of this,but it makes sense,this keeps Bradbury but gives us a chance to have room to be agressive in FA,
I am a fan of keeping both our CBs-it is one of our team strengths
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In comment 15642195 Jimmy Googs said:
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Sauce Gardner is really growing on me...
Better get that checked out, Cogswell. Just sayin'...
I'll be alright. If it was Evan Neal growing on me then we would have a problem.
Yours truly
Jimmy Cogswell Cogs
Meet George Jetson....Jane his wife
The Giants or another team almost certainly change his 2022 comp and the average comp on an extension.
Against the scenarios you listed above, where would you stank rank by probability Bradberry plays for a team on 1-year 13.5M deal in 2022?
The Giants or another team almost certainly change his 2022 comp and the average comp on an extension.
Against the scenarios you listed above, where would you stank rank by probability Bradberry plays for a team on 1-year 13.5M deal in 2022?
that's a good question and i will give a semi-amended answer to simple say that i think the chances are very good he plays on a deal close to 13.5m in AAV and i would stack that above getting cut and playing anywhere on a 1 year deal below 13.5m. (aka im making the same bet joe schoen is making since he has inside info informing his wager)
but you are right that there's a good chance the acquiring team (or NYG) will use the leverage they have to get an extension. it would be a wasted opportunity not to if they like the player.
though i suppose there's a small chance if schoen is willing to accept a 4th/5th round pick an acquiring team would give that up expecting that they will get a comp pick back if he departs via FA next year and they basically get a low risk 1 year look. id guess schoen has considered some deals like that already and is hoping for more. but also maybe plans to take a deal like that if they do get gardner in the draft and something better hasn't materialized.
Would team Bradberry turn down even a 3 year 36M restructure with 20M fully guaranteed?
I think what I’m probably underestimating is 1) 12M is a pay cut 2) 12M adjusted for cap inflation isn’t that much money.
I don’t think he’s a bona fide number one, I think he’s closer to a 1B. 12M is probably really fair for that.
Would team Bradberry turn down even a 3 year 36M restructure with 20M fully guaranteed?
I think what I’m probably underestimating is 1) 12M is a pay cut 2) 12M adjusted for cap inflation isn’t that much money.
I don’t think he’s a bona fide number one, I think he’s closer to a 1B. 12M is probably really fair for that.
12 seems very fair,especially since he is coming off a down year....I thtink I think I would do that deal if I am the new regime,but I can also see hesitance to committing to 3 yrs-what does his current contract call for years wise?
Would team Bradberry turn down even a 3 year 36M restructure with 20M fully guaranteed?
I think what I’m probably underestimating is 1) 12M is a pay cut 2) 12M adjusted for cap inflation isn’t that much money.
I don’t think he’s a bona fide number one, I think he’s closer to a 1B. 12M is probably really fair for that.
that's exactly the type of deal i expect bc based on how UFA went, that's probably what Bradberry is looking at next year. Darious Williams got 3x10m from JAX with 18m fully guaranteed and he's 29 (so the same age as Bradberry next year). Bradberry is the better player so if he were a UFA he'd probably have a case for better but a year early it seems like a reasonable compromise.
so does he take a deal like this or say screw it and try to outplay it on the field? i think he takes the deal and the only question is where.
And now they have to pay the piper.
But the thing to remember is that even though all that backloading sucks now, we Giants fans will always have the golden memories of the 2020 and 2021 seasons
If he’s lost a step, his ball skills are still very strong.
thank you
Makes a ton of sense, Good job
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In comment 15642125 GiantsRage2007 said:
Quote:
When they know we're going to have to cut him
It's a staring match
This is a common line of thinking, but the reason why you might trade for someone who may be cut is that you guaranty the acquisition as opposed to competing with others once he is cut.
I never understand why people don't see this.
Just wait until preseason starts..There were more injuries last year then ever before..We will get a buyer before the 1st regular season game..
Makes a ton of sense, Good job