NFT: Yankees talk-Judge and the Bird is back!

but I think the Judge contract gets done at some point.

My guess is he will get 30-35 annually. He wants 8/9 years and Yankees want to stay at 6/7. My guess for final contract is about

8 years and $250 million which brings him to his age 38 season.

I guess the other thread vanished.

Anyway, I don't think there should be any hesitance on Judge. There's inherent risk with any long-term MLB contract. The elite of the elite in this sport get hurt and miss time. You can never completely remove that from the equation.

Guys like deGrom, Trout, Tatis, Acuna... every year, superstars wind up on the shelf.

Judge has a total of *one* "concerning" injury in his career, which is the oblique and it's several years behind now.

Getting plunked in the wrist and chipping a bone or diving for a ball and breaking a rib/collapsing a lung aren't things that happen to "injury prone" players.

Judge looks like he's locked and loaded right now. He's healthy, in great shape and primed for a monster 2022 campaign.

Get the thing done and let's play ball.

I said the same thing in the other thread that was deleted. In his 4 full seasons he's played, 155, 112, 102 and 148 games. He had the broken wrist from getting plunked and the oblique as the 2 big ones. I also think the Yankees are super cautious because they are playing for a championship, not the regular season.

.

and want to stick to a 3 or 4 year deal, and then walk away if he balks. Since they've gone so analytics and budget oriented, I think the front office has some doubts about how he'll age into his 30s and won't go 6+ years on a deal.

Now that's funny, looks like the Yanks threw Bird a bone here.
They already have Ronald Guzman in AAA, not a big deal,
but throwing a bone to a good guy. He is the modern day
Kevin Maas in a sense.

Maybe there are better fishing spots near Scranton.

In comment 15656227 Giantsfan79 said:

Quote:

and want to stick to a 3 or 4 year deal, and then walk away if he balks. Since they've gone so analytics and budget oriented, I think the front office has some doubts about how he'll age into his 30s and won't go 6+ years on a deal.

.

I mentioned previously I wouldn't go more than five years,
but they probably will...

When he wasn't injured he didn't hit at all. Future first base coach .

There was an article I read recently where it was indicated that the new CBA has changed the rules for how to treat a contract when a player is traded for luxury tax rules.

In the past, when a player was dealt, MLB used the AAV (average annual value) of the contract over the life of the deal to assess the new team the amount for luxury tax purposes. To illustrate, if a player had a 10 year $200M contract, if that player was traded during the contract, the new team's player amount for luxury tax would be determined as $20M per year (200 divided by 10). If there were trade kickers and the like, then there would be adjustments, but the formula was the same.

According to the article, the new rule will be the luxury tax is computed by the amount of actual dollars left on the deal. This is a BIG change that may affect trades involving high salary players. Some teams have traditionally back-loaded deals- meaning less money up front, much more later. Others have front-loaded deals, meaning most of the money is upfront or in the middle, with little at the end.

To illustrate the impact, let's look at Giancarlo Stanton's contract.

Under the old rules, when the Marlins traded Stanton the Yanks, the Yanks luxury tax hit was the AAV, minus the $30M the Marlins agreed to pay the Yanks. Thus, since Stanton's AAV was $25M per year ($325M divided by 13). However, since the Marlins kicked in $30M for the 10 years remaining, MLB took off $3M per year from AAV, meaning Stanton's AAV became $22M for luxury tax purposes.

Under the new rules, Stanton is owed at least $218M over the rest of his contract ($10M buyout in 2028 included). That is for the 22-28 seasons, or 7 years. That would be a staggering $31.14M per AVV going to the new team (and could be more if the team doesn't exercise the 2028 buyout.

Thus, backloading contracts into a star's decline years might be a thing of the past.

It might make sense for the Yanks to frontload Judge's deal to make it easier to move him as he ages, if needed.

Let's hypothetically say the Yanks do a 6 year $210M deal- that's an AVV of $35M. The Yanks might want to try and get the big payments in years 1, 2 and 3 of the deal- say, pay him $40 per for those 3 years. Thus, in the back 3, they would only owe him $90 over 3 years. In so doing, if the Yanks traded Judge in year 4, the acquiring team would only have an AAV of $30M.

Going back to Stanton, it might be prohibitive to move him in a trade for the acquiring team- unless they have a huge amount of space under the luxury tax line- until around 2026.

Just something new to consider for big contracts.

In comment 15656227 Giantsfan79 said:

Quote:

and want to stick to a 3 or 4 year deal, and then walk away if he balks. Since they've gone so analytics and budget oriented, I think the front office has some doubts about how he'll age into his 30s and won't go 6+ years on a deal.

No shot, IMO. I think the Yankees have been a bit more fiscally responsible because they knew they had to pay Judge. They can't be dumb enough to think Judge would take 3/4 years.

Realistically, IMO, if the Yankees get their way it will be 7 years. If they cave, it will be 8 or even 9 years.

I don't care that he's cheap. He really serves no purpose for them.

Thanks for the explanation and it makes a ton of sense to do that. MLB contracts and CBA is so much more confusing than every other sport.

In comment 15656244 rich in DC said:

Quote:

There was an article I read recently where it was indicated that the new CBA has changed the rules for how to treat a contract when a player is traded for luxury tax rules. In the past, when a player was dealt, MLB used the AAV (average annual value) of the contract over the life of the deal to assess the new team the amount for luxury tax purposes. To illustrate, if a player had a 10 year $200M contract, if that player was traded during the contract, the new team's player amount for luxury tax would be determined as $20M per year (200 divided by 10). If there were trade kickers and the like, then there would be adjustments, but the formula was the same. According to the article, the new rule will be the luxury tax is computed by the amount of actual dollars left on the deal. This is a BIG change that may affect trades involving high salary players. Some teams have traditionally back-loaded deals- meaning less money up front, much more later. Others have front-loaded deals, meaning most of the money is upfront or in the middle, with little at the end. To illustrate the impact, let's look at Giancarlo Stanton's contract. Under the old rules, when the Marlins traded Stanton the Yanks, the Yanks luxury tax hit was the AAV, minus the $30M the Marlins agreed to pay the Yanks. Thus, since Stanton's AAV was $25M per year ($325M divided by 13). However, since the Marlins kicked in $30M for the 10 years remaining, MLB took off $3M per year from AAV, meaning Stanton's AAV became $22M for luxury tax purposes. Under the new rules, Stanton is owed at least $218M over the rest of his contract ($10M buyout in 2028 included). That is for the 22-28 seasons, or 7 years. That would be a staggering $31.14M per AVV going to the new team (and could be more if the team doesn't exercise the 2028 buyout. Thus, backloading contracts into a star's decline years might be a thing of the past. It might make sense for the Yanks to frontload Judge's deal to make it easier to move him as he ages, if needed. Let's hypothetically say the Yanks do a 6 year $210M deal- that's an AVV of $35M. The Yanks might want to try and get the big payments in years 1, 2 and 3 of the deal- say, pay him $40 per for those 3 years. Thus, in the back 3, they would only owe him $90 over 3 years. In so doing, if the Yanks traded Judge in year 4, the acquiring team would only have an AAV of $30M. Going back to Stanton, it might be prohibitive to move him in a trade for the acquiring team- unless they have a huge amount of space under the luxury tax line- until around 2026. Just something new to consider for big contracts.

Stantons contract actually has the Marlins 30 mil as a deffered contract of 10 mil each year for 26,27,28 which would lower his money owed by the yankees in those years to 19, 15, 15 or should they buy him out it will not cost them at all in 28.

The Yankees only owe him 159 mil more over 6 years if they decline the option or 174 over 7 if they accept it.

Not sure how that works with the new rules but would assume the dollars are charged to the team paying him in those years.

In comment 15656249 Matt M. said:

Quote:

I don't care that he's cheap. He really serves no purpose for them.

It's a minor league contract. He can be the 1b at Scranton and if he hits his way into a promotion, all the better.

In comment 15656249 Matt M. said:

Quote:

I don't care that he's cheap. He really serves no purpose for them.

What the hell is the problem? They don't have a serious 1B prospect in AAA, so why not take a flyer? Heck, if he shows he's past his injuries and hits well (like her did for the Rockies AAA team) maybe he can be a throw-in that helps complete a trade deadline deal.

....

Bird clearly ain't the word.

In comment 15656244 rich in DC said:

Quote:

There was an article I read recently where it was indicated that the new CBA has changed the rules for how to treat a contract when a player is traded for luxury tax rules. In the past, when a player was dealt, MLB used the AAV (average annual value) of the contract over the life of the deal to assess the new team the amount for luxury tax purposes. To illustrate, if a player had a 10 year $200M contract, if that player was traded during the contract, the new team's player amount for luxury tax would be determined as $20M per year (200 divided by 10). If there were trade kickers and the like, then there would be adjustments, but the formula was the same. According to the article, the new rule will be the luxury tax is computed by the amount of actual dollars left on the deal. This is a BIG change that may affect trades involving high salary players. Some teams have traditionally back-loaded deals- meaning less money up front, much more later. Others have front-loaded deals, meaning most of the money is upfront or in the middle, with little at the end. To illustrate the impact, let's look at Giancarlo Stanton's contract. Under the old rules, when the Marlins traded Stanton the Yanks, the Yanks luxury tax hit was the AAV, minus the $30M the Marlins agreed to pay the Yanks. Thus, since Stanton's AAV was $25M per year ($325M divided by 13). However, since the Marlins kicked in $30M for the 10 years remaining, MLB took off $3M per year from AAV, meaning Stanton's AAV became $22M for luxury tax purposes. Under the new rules, Stanton is owed at least $218M over the rest of his contract ($10M buyout in 2028 included). That is for the 22-28 seasons, or 7 years. That would be a staggering $31.14M per AVV going to the new team (and could be more if the team doesn't exercise the 2028 buyout. Thus, backloading contracts into a star's decline years might be a thing of the past. It might make sense for the Yanks to frontload Judge's deal to make it easier to move him as he ages, if needed. Let's hypothetically say the Yanks do a 6 year $210M deal- that's an AVV of $35M. The Yanks might want to try and get the big payments in years 1, 2 and 3 of the deal- say, pay him $40 per for those 3 years. Thus, in the back 3, they would only owe him $90 over 3 years. In so doing, if the Yanks traded Judge in year 4, the acquiring team would only have an AAV of $30M. Going back to Stanton, it might be prohibitive to move him in a trade for the acquiring team- unless they have a huge amount of space under the luxury tax line- until around 2026. Just something new to consider for big contracts.

Rich, I agree, great explanation. Thanks

But from a Judge contract perspective 1) will he demand a no trade in the contract or won't he have accrued 5/10 year rights so he can't be traded without his ok? (haven't heard if they have adjusted the 5/10 rule in the CBA)

2) Even if after he starts to decline he will still be a fan fav and will the Yankees have the courage to trade him and risk the fan's anger. Cashman and Jeter sort of butted heads on Jeter's last contract but the feeling was you can't let a Yankee great leave.

Doesn’t look good. Not in the NYC area, should expectations be the game won’t be played?

Is Bird really going to make the roster this year? Chance is slim and none.

Do the new rules for calculating AAV affect only new contracts going forward or will they be applied to existing contracts ? In other words, has it become more expensive to trade a player with an existing back loaded contract ?

FWIW, Fangraphs has NYY @ the top of their SP power rankings. I think this is a better team than seems to be the general fan perception. Not that I'm an expert on the temperature of the fanbase, but it just seemed like when none of the big name guys came to the Bronx, there was a very negative sentiment regarding the off-season like it was a failure.

I don't think the talent overall has been a huge problem recently, it's more been injuries, some lineup constructon issues i.e.. RH-heavniness, lack of speed/athleticism, subpar defense in a few spots. And I think a lot of that got addressed.

Decent health and this is a 95 win team, IMO.

Cole has figured out how to throw his best pitches consistently well without the sticky stuff

Also, re: Bird...

He posted a .894 OPS in AAA last year in 100+ games. 27 HR, 91 RBI.

It's not a terrible gamble. He's 29 years old. I don't really understand why it'd bother anyone. It's not like he's going to block a better prospect.

Odds are he never takes impactful AB's @ the MLB level again but I'm not mad at re-acquiring him.

In comment 15656923 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

FWIW, Fangraphs has NYY @ the top of their SP power rankings. I think this is a better team than seems to be the general fan perception. Not that I'm an expert on the temperature of the fanbase, but it just seemed like when none of the big name guys came to the Bronx, there was a very negative sentiment regarding the off-season like it was a failure. I don't think the talent overall has been a huge problem recently, it's more been injuries, some lineup constructon issues i.e.. RH-heavniness, lack of speed/athleticism, subpar defense in a few spots. And I think a lot of that got addressed. Decent health and this is a 95 win team, IMO.

Montgomery is a better pitcher than the average fan may give him credit for. We should be pretty excited about him.

In comment 15656935 Mike from SI said:

Quote:

In comment 15656923 arcarsenal said: Quote: FWIW, Fangraphs has NYY @ the top of their SP power rankings. I think this is a better team than seems to be the general fan perception. Not that I'm an expert on the temperature of the fanbase, but it just seemed like when none of the big name guys came to the Bronx, there was a very negative sentiment regarding the off-season like it was a failure. I don't think the talent overall has been a huge problem recently, it's more been injuries, some lineup constructon issues i.e.. RH-heavniness, lack of speed/athleticism, subpar defense in a few spots. And I think a lot of that got addressed. Decent health and this is a 95 win team, IMO. Montgomery is a better pitcher than the average fan may give him credit for. We should be pretty excited about him.

Yup, a lot of folks have Monty pegged as a sleeper this year. He was rock solid in '21 and I have to think the tides will turn on the lack of run support.

It was pitiful how seldom there were runs on the board when he pitched last year.

Stuff-wise, Severino is the best SP on the staff behind Cole, but in my opinion, Monty probably has the highest floor and is the safest bet to have a good year health-permitting.

Guy is nearing the wrong side of 30 and can’t stay on the field consistently as it is. Hard pass on 6+ years. We’ve seen this model of franchise building before and it simply doesn’t work out nearly as well as everyone expects.

In comment 15656803 Ron from Ninerland said:

Quote:

Do the new rules for calculating AAV affect only new contracts going forward or will they be applied to existing contracts ? In other words, has it become more expensive to trade a player with an existing back loaded contract ?

Based on how the article worded it, it is my understanding that it applies to existing contracts and new contracts.

In comment 15656963 Dave in PA said:

Quote:

Guy is nearing the wrong side of 30 and can’t stay on the field consistently as it is. Hard pass on 6+ years. We’ve seen this model of franchise building before and it simply doesn’t work out nearly as well as everyone expects.

What? He had a broken wrist from a HBP, a broken rib and collapsed lung diving for a ball and an oblique pull. Hardly something to whine about. Last year he was fine, as was Stanton. Of all the people on the roster, I'd find the money for Judge.

In comment 15656949 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

In comment 15656935 Mike from SI said: Quote: In comment 15656923 arcarsenal said: Quote: FWIW, Fangraphs has NYY @ the top of their SP power rankings. I think this is a better team than seems to be the general fan perception. Not that I'm an expert on the temperature of the fanbase, but it just seemed like when none of the big name guys came to the Bronx, there was a very negative sentiment regarding the off-season like it was a failure. I don't think the talent overall has been a huge problem recently, it's more been injuries, some lineup constructon issues i.e.. RH-heavniness, lack of speed/athleticism, subpar defense in a few spots. And I think a lot of that got addressed. Decent health and this is a 95 win team, IMO. Montgomery is a better pitcher than the average fan may give him credit for. We should be pretty excited about him. Yup, a lot of folks have Monty pegged as a sleeper this year. He was rock solid in '21 and I have to think the tides will turn on the lack of run support. It was pitiful how seldom there were runs on the board when he pitched last year. Stuff-wise, Severino is the best SP on the staff behind Cole, but in my opinion, Monty probably has the highest floor and is the safest bet to have a good year health-permitting.

It is often said that it takes a year for a pitcher to fully recover from TJ. I believe Montgomery’s secondary stats show solid upside and people around the league underrate him.

In comment 15656981 section125 said:

Quote:

In comment 15656963 Dave in PA said: Quote: Guy is nearing the wrong side of 30 and can’t stay on the field consistently as it is. Hard pass on 6+ years. We’ve seen this model of franchise building before and it simply doesn’t work out nearly as well as everyone expects. What? He had a broken wrist from a HBP, a broken rib and collapsed lung diving for a ball and an oblique pull. Hardly something to whine about. Last year he was fine, as was Stanton. Of all the people on the roster, I'd find the money for Judge.

how long will stanton stay healthy? Will he be a permanent-DH for multiple years? That matters, because Judge is a massive human being and those guys don’t typically stay injury free as they get older. It’s a mistake to give him a 7 or 8 year deal.

give him the C.

Bird is the word. Always was.

In comment 15657119 Dave in PA said:

Quote:

In comment 15656981 section125 said: Quote: In comment 15656963 Dave in PA said: Quote: Guy is nearing the wrong side of 30 and can’t stay on the field consistently as it is. Hard pass on 6+ years. We’ve seen this model of franchise building before and it simply doesn’t work out nearly as well as everyone expects. What? He had a broken wrist from a HBP, a broken rib and collapsed lung diving for a ball and an oblique pull. Hardly something to whine about. Last year he was fine, as was Stanton. Of all the people on the roster, I'd find the money for Judge. how long will stanton stay healthy? Will he be a permanent-DH for multiple years? That matters, because Judge is a massive human being and those guys don’t typically stay injury free as they get older. It’s a mistake to give him a 7 or 8 year deal.

I agree on 7-8 years being too long. 6 is the sweet spot.

Since the new S&C guy came, Stanton and Judge have done well.

As far as DH, that includes DJLM for 5 more years.

FWIW, Gallo is 6'5 and DJLM 6'4" to go with Judge 6'7" and Stanton 6'6" - all rather big people. Montgomery and Taillon are also 6'5". Not too many small people on the Yanks.

In comment 15656988 rich in DC said:

Quote:

In comment 15656949 arcarsenal said: Quote: In comment 15656935 Mike from SI said: Quote: In comment 15656923 arcarsenal said: Quote: FWIW, Fangraphs has NYY @ the top of their SP power rankings. I think this is a better team than seems to be the general fan perception. Not that I'm an expert on the temperature of the fanbase, but it just seemed like when none of the big name guys came to the Bronx, there was a very negative sentiment regarding the off-season like it was a failure. I don't think the talent overall has been a huge problem recently, it's more been injuries, some lineup constructon issues i.e.. RH-heavniness, lack of speed/athleticism, subpar defense in a few spots. And I think a lot of that got addressed. Decent health and this is a 95 win team, IMO. Montgomery is a better pitcher than the average fan may give him credit for. We should be pretty excited about him. Yup, a lot of folks have Monty pegged as a sleeper this year. He was rock solid in '21 and I have to think the tides will turn on the lack of run support. It was pitiful how seldom there were runs on the board when he pitched last year. Stuff-wise, Severino is the best SP on the staff behind Cole, but in my opinion, Monty probably has the highest floor and is the safest bet to have a good year health-permitting. It is often said that it takes a year for a pitcher to fully recover from TJ. I believe Montgomery’s secondary stats show solid upside and people around the league underrate him.

Agree, Rich. Think Monty puts together his best year in '22. He's not a TOR guy, obviously but I love Monty as a 3.

Also, I'm sure most of you have seen already but Opening Day is pushed back to Friday. It's the right move - the weather is going to be messy tomorrow and I'd hate to see Cole get jerked around or have to come out because of a long delay in 1 of 162.

In comment 15657258 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

Agree, Rich. Think Monty puts together his best year in '22. He's not a TOR guy, obviously but I love Monty as a 3. Also, I'm sure most of you have seen already but Opening Day is pushed back to Friday. It's the right move - the weather is going to be messy tomorrow and I'd hate to see Cole get jerked around or have to come out because of a long delay in 1 of 162.

Glad they pushed it back early enough to allow for everyone to be prepared.

Agree on Monty. He has a bit of Andy Pettitte in him.

In comment 15657270 section125 said:

Quote:

In comment 15657258 arcarsenal said: Quote: Agree, Rich. Think Monty puts together his best year in '22. He's not a TOR guy, obviously but I love Monty as a 3. Also, I'm sure most of you have seen already but Opening Day is pushed back to Friday. It's the right move - the weather is going to be messy tomorrow and I'd hate to see Cole get jerked around or have to come out because of a long delay in 1 of 162. Glad they pushed it back early enough to allow for everyone to be prepared. Agree on Monty. He has a bit of Andy Pettitte in him.

I’m actually excited they pushed it to Friday. I’ll be working from home on Friday so I’ll get to watch. I was annoyed I’d have to miss the Thursday game

Guardians and Jose Ramirez agree on a 5 year, 124M extension.

Love to see that. One, because it'd be criminal for them to let him go at that price and two.. because if they moved him, Toronto was a likely suitor.

This is good for baseball.

Just the GM who was a small RH 2B at a small college and has built the Yankees into what it seems was his baseball fantasy and baseball nightmare.

Tall RH power hitters and tall RH hard throwing pitchers.

I think Judge is going to get paid by the Yankees and I think he's going to get his years. Because he sells tickets. He is by far the most popular player on the team and the casual fan backlash if he leaves will be even more empty seats. I think the Yankees are going to have a lot of empty seats this year. I also think that Hal is going to be Mara like if that happens. I think an empty stadium is his worst fear and I think that will probably put Cashman in greater jeopardy for his next contract than anything that happens on the field if this season goes south.

IMO selling tickets is a higher priority to Hal than winning a WS. He's basically said as much claiming the Yankees have lost more money due to the pandemic than any team in baseball. He's told us he has an 80 million dollar mortage on his shopping mall and if there's a lot less people paying to enter and then consume the food and buy souvenirs his cut of the take gets hurt. Who else on the Yankees besides Judge is a casual baseball buying a ticket to see?

Across town if they're ever healthy you have deGrom & Scherzer, Alonso & Lindor.

Plus the excitement of the richest owner in MLB who is as big a Met fan as anyone who buys a ticket.

This is not a post about which team is better or who has more fans. Most of you weren't around for the 1984-1992 Mets. They out drew the Yankees 9 years in a row. Most of you are 1994 thru the present fans and it's been all Yankees all the time even when the Mets were competitive the Yankees still out drew them. There were some years where it was very close and some where it was not. It would not have shocked me at all if the Mets broke that streak this year. But with the starting pitchers already injured that will put a dent int heir attendance.

So if you agree Hal is concerned about selling tickets more than anything else and he's been painted as weak, cheap not George while the guy across the bridge is being hailed as the 2nd coming of George and Aaron Judge is his best ticket seller it seems to me we can see how this will end.

When people say they miss George I always think they're foolish. George was horrible at baseball. What he was great at was selling the history of the Yankees and embracing the arrogance of being the Yankees. I've said this a 100 times before the greed of the idiots Levine and Trost and they are idiots and Hal not really being around the Yankees or even liking baseball until he was forced to take over combined to build a stadium that no one is interested in seeing and hides the glorious history of the Yankees. So there better be current players people want to pay to see. You can only have so many Jeter days.

I'm sure most of us have discussed things like what would you do if you were commoner of baseball for a day? If I was commissioner of baseball for a day I'd appoint myself the owner for he Yankees for a day and I'd fix the horrible outfield stands in the stadium. I don't care what it would cost or how it would have to be done.

I would demolish that Jim Beam restaurant and replace it with Monument Park. I'd put the three original monuments front and center as if they were on the field in Yankee Stadium 1.0 and then build the rest of it behind that. I'd make it as big as possible so that as many people as possible could be get in and see it before the games start. I would market everything about the team around it. I'm a Yankee fan because my father was. He taught me when I was a little kid about #'s 3, 4, 5, 8 and 16 and the rest of the great Yankee teams. Number #7 was at the end of his career but still playing. The Yankees have something no other team will ever have and they don't know how to market it and they're pissing it away.

Here's a free idea Hal. Father/Mother & son/daughter days or nights. Do it when the teams that are tanking come in and there's plenty of seats. Dad/Mom buys full price tickets and the kids 14 and under as many as he or she brings get a free Yankee hat and a free Yankee shirt and a free Yankee Monument Park picture after they tour Monument Park. Not the sponsored give away day stuff. The stuff they sell in the gift shops. Maybe even have one of the former players in there where the picture spot is to take a picture with. I'm sure plenty of the former players would do that. The Yankees do some great charity work in the Bronx. Have some High School kids they work with in there to help with the tour and explain who the players are and talk about the plaques. I guarantee Hal will make his money back 10 fold and make fans for life. Not all of them but enough that it will make an impact. Other teams might try to copy that, hopefully they do because baseball has an engagement problem with younger people but what other team can offer anything like that?

#FreeMonumentPark

In comment 15657119 Dave in PA said:

Quote:

In comment 15656981 section125 said: Quote: In comment 15656963 Dave in PA said: Quote: Guy is nearing the wrong side of 30 and can’t stay on the field consistently as it is. Hard pass on 6+ years. We’ve seen this model of franchise building before and it simply doesn’t work out nearly as well as everyone expects. What? He had a broken wrist from a HBP, a broken rib and collapsed lung diving for a ball and an oblique pull. Hardly something to whine about. Last year he was fine, as was Stanton. Of all the people on the roster, I'd find the money for Judge. how long will stanton stay healthy? Will he be a permanent-DH for multiple years? That matters, because Judge is a massive human being and those guys don’t typically stay injury free as they get older. It’s a mistake to give him a 7 or 8 year deal.

You say that “Judge is a massive human being and those guys don’t typically stay injury free as they get older”.

The reality is that there are not that many MLB comps to Judge (size-wise). So I’m not sure how you can make any statistically-valid claim regarding the ability of “massive” players to stay injury-free.

The closest comps to Judge that I could find were Frank Howard, Dave Kingman and Dave Winfield.

Howard was 6’ 7” 255 and had a long, relatively injury-free career. He played until he was 37. He also led the AL in homers at 31 and 33, hitting 44 both years.

Dave Kingman was 6” 6”, but much lighter at 210. He also played until he was 37. In his last 3 seasons he played in 147, 158 and 144 games, with HR/RBI totals of 35/118, 30/91 and 30/94.

Dave Winfield was 6’ 6” 220. He was also relatively injury-free in his career and played until he was 43. Winfield had 26 HR and 108 RBI at age 40.

If you have comps of any other “massive players” that are close to Judge’s size who didn’t stay injury-free as they got older, please share their names.

As already pointed out above, all of Judge’s injuries were freak accidents and I’d argue that they had nothing to do with his size.

If the Yanks offer a 7 year contract to Judge he will be just 36 at the conclusion of that contract, the same age as Josh Donaldson, a player the Yankees just traded for and are counting on this year.

If it took an 8 year deal and Judge’s stats fell off a bit in his last year or two, I’d still do the deal. This is not Robinson Cano we’re talking about. Judge is the face of the Yankees.

And on a side note, in your attempt to build a case for the team not signing Judge to a long-term deal, you used the phrase, “nearing the wrong side of 30”. How can a 29 year old player, about to turn 30, be on the wrong side of 30?

Actually I think that might make trading him easier. Unless he has a no trade clause. Seems like a pretty team friendly contract and he wouldn't be a rental.

In comment 15657338 arniefez said:

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Actually I think that might make trading him easier. Unless he has a no trade clause. Seems like a pretty team friendly contract and he wouldn't be a rental.

Sure, in 2-3 years if they're looking for a prospect haul and he's still posting top-flight numbers I could see them moving him, but this says to me he's staying in Cleveland for at least another couple years.

is going to make the Judge extension talks harder. I feel like he is going to want twice what Ramirez settled for even though Ramirez is the younger, better player.

In comment 15657963 JoeMoney19 said:

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is going to make the Judge extension talks harder. I feel like he is going to want twice what Ramirez settled for even though Ramirez is the younger, better player.

Younger, yes. Better? no.

In comment 15657963 JoeMoney19 said:

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is going to make the Judge extension talks harder. I feel like he is going to want twice what Ramirez settled for even though Ramirez is the younger, better player.

Not sure I follow your logic here. Ramirez is getting about $25M per in his deal. Judge wants a LOT more than that. If anything Judge’s camp would be the unhappy ones.

and he's a whole 5 months younger. Judge has a better career OBP, SLG, OPS+ and is an excellent OF with a very strong arm.

They'll probably build around him, Bieber and the young pen arms.

But my general point still stands. Ramirez seems like he could have gotten $250mm as a free agent. Which I imagine is the minimum Judge is looking for.