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| Conspiracy theories aside, the Giants sounded the "Jones is gonna be just fine" sirens soon after Judge and Gettleman were gone in January. They did not, however, exercise the fifth-year option on Jones' rookie contract, something teams routinely do when they are completely satisfied with the progress of any young player, particularly a quarterback (unless they offer that player a hefty new deal instead). Jones ranked 26th in DVOA last year, his third straight season in the bottom quartile among starters. He ranked third-worst in failed completions and dead last among 34 qualified starters in ALEX. There were extenuating circumstances, like the inscrutable Judge, paint-by-numbers coordinator Jason Garrett, and another season behind a flimsy offensive line. There were also a few positive indicators. Per Sports Info Solutions, Jones ranked fifth in adjusted net yards per attempt on 15-plus-yard passes, ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. Still, there aren't nearly enough splits to suggest that Jones is some undiscovered Josh Allen. Even Jones' rushing was a net negative according to DVOA and DYAR. The fifth-year option would cost the Giants a little over $22 million guaranteed in 2023. Failure to exercise the option makes Jones a free agent at the end of the 2022 season. If Jones enjoys a breakout year under Daboll and his staff, the Giants will probably be forced to franchise tag him at a salary of around $35 million. But if Jones cements his status among the bottom quartile of NFL starters and/or suffers through another injury-marred season, the Giants can move on for free. The Giants have until May 2 to decide. As of now, it sure appears that they are hedging in the direction of not anticipating that breakout season. Schoen and Daboll might simply have been waiting to see Jones in the building for a few days, healthy and bushy-tailed, before making their contract decision. Perhaps they are waiting until they process more contracts for players like Adoree' Jackson before they commit any 2023 money to Jones (and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, whose fifth-year option will cost the Giants around $11 million to exercise). They possibly have one eye on Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo if one becomes available for a third-day draft pick. There are also political factors. Owner John Mara, who hates being portrayed as a meddler but not enough to stop, thinks of Jones as Eli Manning Junior and his Giants as grand custodians of the sport who approach the development of young quarterbacks with old-fashioned patience and care. Mara has made it clear that he wants Jones to get an "intelligent evaluation" under better conditions. Daboll, meanwhile, has his Josh Allen-certified quarterback guru reputation to protect and enhance. Mara hired Daboll to turn Jones into Allen. Daboll knows it. So Daboll must be diplomatic about any potential pivot to Plan B. In summary, Jones isn't the Giants starting quarterback in 2022 because he's still a top prospect. He the Giants starter because: a) he's cheap in 2022; b) any replacement would cost money and resources the team doesn't have; and c) the guy who signs the checks loves him. |
@MikeTanier
's #NYGiants piece today, I went looking for QBs with similar career to Daniel Jones.
🏈DYAR < 0 in Years 1-2
🏈DYAR -300 to 300 in Year 3
🏈300+ Passes in each season
I found 2 similar QB: Joey Harrington + Rick Mirer
This is also a Sam Darnold tweet.
Twitter - ( New Window )
Nothing could possibly sum up John Mara better or more concisely than this.
I think Daboll truly thinks he can make Jones better.....not because of Jones....but that is how good coaches think.
Committing to him for 30+ million scares the hell our of me.
But 20 million seems to offer the Giants some options. I still hold out hope....he can settle in the middle of the pack....win with a good team around him.
Very curious to see how these teams with 25+million commutted to WRs do?
I think Daboll truly thinks he can make Jones better.....not because of Jones....but that is how good coaches think.
Or... that is what he thinks our owner wants to hear. I mentioned this in another thread about John Mara. When he voices his opinion about a player to the GM and head coach, he is putting his thumb on the scale. Neither guy is going to say STFU John you dont know what you are talking about. They have to try to "make it work" or burn another year with Jones just to prove Mara wrong.
The only wild card here is it could be smoke and mirrors because maybe the Giants do like a QB in this year's draft.
For 2022, Jones isn't a choice. He's a lack of options. My guess is that he and Barkley are gone after this season.
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It certainly is an important year....
I think Daboll truly thinks he can make Jones better.....not because of Jones....but that is how good coaches think.
Or... that is what he thinks our owner wants to hear. I mentioned this in another thread about John Mara. When he voices his opinion about a player to the GM and head coach, he is putting his thumb on the scale. Neither guy is going to say STFU John you dont know what you are talking about. They have to try to "make it work" or burn another year with Jones just to prove Mara wrong.
The only wild card here is it could be smoke and mirrors because maybe the Giants do like a QB in this year's draft.
The best option is to draft a QB and start Tyrod Taylor.
Coughlin was losing to the Redskins going 0-3....and probably fired....but pulled out game, made playoff....and stopped an unstoppable NE team.....
I do not except sniffing a playoff run but
Great draft
Fix OL
Modern offense
Pretty easy schedule
Stay healthy
And a Wink defense
I will hold out hope before burying team in 2022.
Committing to him for 30+ million scares the hell our of me.
But 20 million seems to offer the Giants some options. I still hold out hope....he can settle in the middle of the pack....win with a good team around him.
If you have a $20 million quarterback who is in the middle of the pack, you need a different QB, because you're not winning the Super Bowl with the one you have.
Good point. Reaching for a QB just because he's not Jones will likely exacerbate the problem. Let him play out the season and see what happens. If he improves they can extend him, if not walk away.
QBs on Rookie deals is a massive advantage. See KC.
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In conjunction with
@MikeTanier
's #NYGiants piece today, I went looking for QBs with similar career to Daniel Jones.
🏈DYAR < 0 in Years 1-2
🏈DYAR -300 to 300 in Year 3
🏈300+ Passes in each season
I found 2 similar QB: Joey Harrington + Rick Mirer
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There really isn't precedent over the last 40 years for a QB who was as poor as Jones in Years 1-2 and then mediocre in Year 3 to turn into a star.
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re: Daniel Jones. If you only look at QBs who had pass DYAR below replacement in Years 1-2, the ones who turned into stars had breakouts in Year 3, not later: Troy Aikman in 1991 and Josh Allen in 2020. After three years, you know who a guy is.
This is also a Sam Darnold tweet.
Twitter - ( New Window )
I'd probably take Mirer and Harrington over Jones today for 2022.
This leads to JS probably keeping his job but ultimately Mara and his team are meddling big time now.
This then leads to another decade of rotten football.
Just draft BPA and lets see how the season progresses.
Paying Daniel Jones anywhere close to $35M based on 3 poor years and one good year should not be on the table unless he is the league MVP. You can't give him that kind of money based on "Gee, maybe he isn't that bad after all!"
There aren't too many QBs who can be this statistically poor for four years and remain starters in the league. It's getting to the point when you have to ask who has gotten to fail longer before becoming a good QB?
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Owner John Mara, who hates being portrayed as a meddler but not enough to stop
Nothing could possibly sum up John Mara better or more concisely than this.
That really is an outstanding way to put it. Hopefully that line makes it to Mara himself.
But everyone agrees it would be foolish to commit more money to him until we see what this season brings. DJ could in fact have the potential to be a really good QB, but if it isn't happening for him for whatever reasons, the team can't suffer for that.
"Schoen and Daboll are like doctors who are finally giving it to us straight after years of quack remedies. Next year is gonna hurt. But they will do everything they can to not prolong the agony."
For now, I will be optimistic that they know what they're doing, and going to be allowed to do it. Brighter days ahead, boys.
Paying Daniel Jones anywhere close to $35M based on 3 poor years and one good year should not be on the table unless he is the league MVP. You can't give him that kind of money based on "Gee, maybe he isn't that bad after all!"
I don't agree.
First off being a League MVP shouldn't matter.
Good luck to you but more importantly if the new head coach feels as though he has his quarterback after watching him play for an entire year...
..."the past is the past."
Granted I don't see it happening, but if the coach and GM, after an entire off season and season, believe that they have their quarterback, they should extend him.
Just think how rich those three sentences are...
Mara hired Daboll. Wait, what about Schoen?
Daboll knows he has to turn Jones into Allen. Are you kidding me? Allen is infinity more talented than our game manager. There is no way Daboll can do the impossible.
Daboll and Schoen, I agree, are probably walking on eggshells on this decision with Jones because Mara has been very, very vocal the last month that he unequivocally think Jones is the answer at QB.
If Daboll and Schoen truly want to move on from DJ, they are really in shark invested waters at 125 Giants Way...
And here we go.
Certainly there is circumstantial evidence to that effect but absolutely no proof.
I also do not think that Daniel Jones can be labeled as a game manager...
... He hasn't even shown the ability to do that yet.
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Mara hired Daboll to turn Jones into Allen. Daboll knows it. So Daboll must be diplomatic about any potential pivot to Plan B.
Just think how rich those three sentences are...
Mara hired Daboll. Wait, what about Schoen?
Daboll knows he has to turn Jones into Allen. Are you kidding me? Allen is infinity more talented than our game manager. There is no way Daboll can do the impossible.
Daboll and Schoen, I agree, are probably walking on eggshells on this decision with Jones because Mara has been very, very vocal the last month that he unequivocally think Jones is the answer at QB.
If Daboll and Schoen truly want to move on from DJ, they are really in shark invested waters at 125 Giants Way...
I mean this is bold speculation, yes Mara had the final say on a coach but Schoen worked with him for 5 years in Buffalo. I don’t believe for a second Mara hired him under the circumstances he would fix Jones in one year lol. I mean it wouldn’t surprise me but that’s a convenient projection just because he groomed a QB. If anything he’s be all over Kafka on hips he calls the plays
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Are these baseball Sabermetrics geeks?
And here we go.
"Back in my day you could tell how good a QB was by looking at his crew cut!"
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Are these baseball Sabermetrics geeks?
And here we go.
I much prefer making decisions on a QB based on how he makes me feel or whether or not I'd want my daughter to marry him.
Last year the Giants sucked, but would Carson have looked much better in that offense?
It sounds crazy, but Jones at his salary might have value.
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And as bad as the coaching has been, the talent surrounding Jones hasn’t been any better. Not last season anyway.
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Those personnel deficiencies showed up all over the field. Jones finished last in the league in targets thrown to open receivers, which is hardly surprising if you’ve watched film of the 2021 Giants offense. The offensive line wasn’t good enough to hold up in protection on long-developing pass plays—New York had the highest rate of blown blocks on five- and seven-step dropbacks, per Sports Info Solutions—so opposing secondaries didn’t have to worry about the deeper areas of the field. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett was unable to coach around those limitations, so he just called a bunch of hitches and out-breaking routes instead.
...
Those are risky throws, and they’re even harder to make when the defenses can sit on them without having to worry about throws over the top. As the season wore on, defenses squeezed the Giants passing game more and more, forcing Jones to grow more and more conservative:
Before defenses started to clamp down on the passing game, Jones had been playing solid football—even if his traditional stat line didn’t reflect it.
Through the first five weeks of the season, he ranked sixth in Pro Football Focus’s grading, ahead of Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. But even when things were going well, Jones didn’t have it easy. There were no “layups” provided by Garrett’s scheme, and if Jones needed more time in the pocket or space to make a throw, he had to create it for himself. Good NFL quarterbacks are expected to do those things every so often; for Jones, it was required on most plays.
...
Jones was playing with the difficulty turned up all season. That he was able to get through it without completely imploding is an encouraging sign for a quarterback who had been criticized for erratic decision-making under pressure before last season.
The Ringer: How Will the Giants Answer Their Daniel Jones Question? - ( New Window )
I also do not think that Daniel Jones can be labeled as a game manager...
... He hasn't even shown the ability to do that yet.
That is true. I was trying to be positive. ;)
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I also do not think that Daniel Jones can be labeled as a game manager...
... He hasn't even shown the ability to do that yet.
That is true. I was trying to be positive. ;)
That's precisely the sort of long-range opportunity-cost calculation Gettleman loved to publicly chuckle off. Barkley's fifth-year option was like his going away present to his successors. But then, so were many of the roster and financial decisions the Giants made in 2020 and 2021, when they pretended they were win-now contenders despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
"Jones was playing with the difficulty turned up all season."
No matter your take on Jones, you have to admit those points.
Bottom line though, like I said earlier, we need results and if he's bad, mediocre, unlucky, whatever, we can't wait to get it sorted out.
I guess the actual point here is, if he has a good 2022, it's not an actual outlier in terms of his QB ability, it would be that finally he didn't have to play all the time with the difficultly level turned up.
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As of April of 2022, Barkley may end up costing the Giants James Bradberry, a broken-down running back eating up resources the team needs to retain a quality starting cornerback in his prime.
That's precisely the sort of long-range opportunity-cost calculation Gettleman loved to publicly chuckle off. Barkley's fifth-year option was like his going away present to his successors. But then, so were many of the roster and financial decisions the Giants made in 2020 and 2021, when they pretended they were win-now contenders despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
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So Barkley probably will not be traded. His guaranteed contract means he won't get released. He'll join Jones in a zombie backfield, a weekly reminder that the last regime failed so catastrophically that the new regime needs a full year for the radiation to decay to healthy levels before they clean up in earnest.
This is a brilliantly accurate summation of the situation. The radiation decay metaphor is particularly apt.
We went overly conservative with him in the last 2 years, though his ball security was better he lost a lot of his reaction speed and he probably doesn't trust himself after the relentless ball security complaints.
One thing that he does which drives me nuts is run into heavy traffic, shoulder or head down. Its just DUMB
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As of April of 2022, Barkley may end up costing the Giants James Bradberry, a broken-down running back eating up resources the team needs to retain a quality starting cornerback in his prime.
That's precisely the sort of long-range opportunity-cost calculation Gettleman loved to publicly chuckle off. Barkley's fifth-year option was like his going away present to his successors. But then, so were many of the roster and financial decisions the Giants made in 2020 and 2021, when they pretended they were win-now contenders despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
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So Barkley probably will not be traded. His guaranteed contract means he won't get released. He'll join Jones in a zombie backfield, a weekly reminder that the last regime failed so catastrophically that the new regime needs a full year for the radiation to decay to healthy levels before they clean up in earnest.
This is why the "wait and see" crowd irks me. We had 4 years of decision making that was rightfully seen as horrible in real time, but were told to "wait and see." Well we waited and have seen, and the DG era Giants were a shit show of epic proportions. Waiting and seeing with DJ (and SB to some extent) is just continuing that era.
Now JS' hands are tied a bit, but it's a shame the first year of his tenure is going to be so marred by the failures of DG.
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But Jones’s situation is a little more complicated—and “complicated” is just a nice way of saying it’s been downright shitty.
...
And as bad as the coaching has been, the talent surrounding Jones hasn’t been any better. Not last season anyway.
...
Those personnel deficiencies showed up all over the field. Jones finished last in the league in targets thrown to open receivers, which is hardly surprising if you’ve watched film of the 2021 Giants offense. The offensive line wasn’t good enough to hold up in protection on long-developing pass plays—New York had the highest rate of blown blocks on five- and seven-step dropbacks, per Sports Info Solutions—so opposing secondaries didn’t have to worry about the deeper areas of the field. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett was unable to coach around those limitations, so he just called a bunch of hitches and out-breaking routes instead.
...
Those are risky throws, and they’re even harder to make when the defenses can sit on them without having to worry about throws over the top. As the season wore on, defenses squeezed the Giants passing game more and more, forcing Jones to grow more and more conservative:
Before defenses started to clamp down on the passing game, Jones had been playing solid football—even if his traditional stat line didn’t reflect it.
Through the first five weeks of the season, he ranked sixth in Pro Football Focus’s grading, ahead of Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. But even when things were going well, Jones didn’t have it easy. There were no “layups” provided by Garrett’s scheme, and if Jones needed more time in the pocket or space to make a throw, he had to create it for himself. Good NFL quarterbacks are expected to do those things every so often; for Jones, it was required on most plays.
...
Jones was playing with the difficulty turned up all season. That he was able to get through it without completely imploding is an encouraging sign for a quarterback who had been criticized for erratic decision-making under pressure before last season.
The Ringer: How Will the Giants Answer Their Daniel Jones Question? - ( New Window )
Nice article, but the Giants have a little more time then they make out. They can decline his 5th year option, but that doesn't mean he's definitely gone it just means they might do what no one else has done: decline the option then sign him to another contract anyway or franchise him. Schoen and Daboll have a ton of excuses to go this route, including not being here.
Should be required reading for any fan and anyone within the organization.
Still not sure why Daboll and Schoen would want to come here.
I thought Jones was a reach at 6. That doesn't mean I'm not rooting for him. Let's hope Kafka and Daboll can make some chicken salad around here.
That's exactly what it is. He looks like someone Chris Mara would want to take to Churchill Downs on draft weekend.
textbook case of a guy not being smart enought to know what he doesn't know.
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Is it really because he is a dead ringer for Eli & Cutcliffe connection? And if so...Good Lord.
textbook case of a guy not being smart enought to know what he doesn't know.
Well put
And ask yourself what are the odds that Jones and Barkley will be here next year?
What a mess!
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What’s the alternative is important as well. Now, for those who think we should get a QB at 5 or 7 them Mara is a big problem but that’s not what I’m hearing generally. For those of you who want a QB later on I’m not a fan because that doesn’t seem to work all that well to get a high quality starter. So, the way I see it Jones is the best option for now.
Good point. Reaching for a QB just because he's not Jones will likely exacerbate the problem. Let him play out the season and see what happens. If he improves they can extend him, if not walk away.
Amen. I don’t get the shoot in the dark attitude with selecting a QB this year. We, as Giant fans, have suffered enough. Let’s get things right without risking an additional two or three more years of misery. Let’s see what DJ has. If the Giants don’t feel comfortable with DJ’s play, then move on.