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The Daniel Jones Dilemma, as I see it.

Klaatu : 5/8/2022 6:59 am
In his pre-draft evaluation of Daniel Jones, Sy'56 compared him, physically, to Ryan Tannehill, so I'm going to use Tannehill as a benchmark, with the understanding that statistically he's been a better QB than Jones in their respective first four years.

Can you field a competitive team with a Ryan Tannehill at the helm? Absolutely, provided every other facet of your team is strong, or at least above average. Good skill players, good offensive line, good defense and special teams. You'll be competitive. You might even make the playoffs, either by winning your division or as a wild card, if you can stay relatively healthy and get a favorable bounce or two as the season progresses.

Can you field a championship team, though? Probably not, and therein lies the dilemma. The proverbial "game manager" can keep a good team competitive, provided it stays good, but the odds are he won't be able to elevate that team to a championship level. In today's NFL, you need a QB with elite-level skill to do that.

Daniel Jones may be good enough to keep the Giants out of the cellar with a good, strong supporting cast around him, but I doubt he'll ever be able to put the team on his back, if need be, and carry it to The Promised Land.

If all you want is to not be a complete joke, you can keep him and build around him as best you can. If you want to add another Lombardi Trophy or two, you move on, and replace him as soon as you can, "by any means necessary," with a much, much better QB.
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Joens should be the starter  
giantstock : 5/10/2022 9:11 am : link
But who cares whether him or TT? The team is rebuilding. Since when is it wrong to give a younger play a shot when you are in rebuild mode?

And if they make it competitive, so what? If TT beats him out, so what? If TT replaces him, so what?
==================
The 2023 Draft and FA and Trade possibilities are all on the table. To think a team that is in major rebuild mode is going to be completely out of the picture in drafting a Qb when we have seen over the years that good QB's can be drafted even after the 6th pick is just burying your head in the sand.


RE: …  
Jimmy Googs : 5/10/2022 9:34 am : link
In comment 15704079 christian said:
Quote:
If you accept the premise ownership will exhibit the patience and deference they’ve not show the last 3 coaches, then burning a year on Jones is not a big bet.

But ultimately, the risk is after tilting the moderate resources they had to the offense, Jones treads water and that creates the illusion the needle is pointing up.

And I’m not sure where the confidence next offseason is guaranteed to produce this turnkey alternative this offseason didn’t avail.


The needle is pointing up comment on BBI probably needs to be retired at this point. I have heard it for the last decade on this site and it has never (repeat...never) been accurate. It is typically used by posters who want to display optimism but with just enough disclaimer that the horizon is still about 2 years away so they can't ever be wrong. This isn't a shot at you christian, just a side-bar pet peeve of mine :-)

There is no needle pointing up with this team right now. There is a ton of things still wrong with this roster and contracts/players that have to be replaced. And even if Jones (and Giants) have a better 2022, football logic suggests that he will not be the QB going forward. He won't meet the high threshold that is required for QBs today to get extended deals. I am not putting all my faith in Schoen/Daboll yet, but I just don't see two young professionals that are moronic enough to hitch their future a guy that tries hard but simply isn't good enough.

And yes, while I know the Giants have not been operating on football logic for some time, I like the dynamic of a new regime that has no ties to DJ. As well as an ownership/front office that should have recently hit rock-bottom based on their awful decision-making for the past decade and should be acting in near if not total deference on most topics.
forget the new york giants - any first time head coach is on the clock  
Eric on Li : 5/10/2022 10:21 am : link
steve wilks got canned after 1 year and if you believe him he wanted josh allen while steve keim wanted josh rosen. and that's all, goodbye 5m salary hello defensive coordinator at missouri.

bob quinn and matt patricia were a tandem in detroit but it didn't matter, passed on herbert and never got another pick.

david culley was nick caserio's guy and did an admirable job last year in non-ideal circumstances. congrats here are some steak knives and a fishing reel you're unemployed.

matt rhule has somehow hung on for his 3rd year after passing on chances to pick mac jones last year and move up a couple picks for herbert in 2020. Now his nfl career is the hands of ben mcadoo finding a way to win with matt corral or darnold. he's probably already booking some college visits with his dad this fall to figure out where he's going to matriculate next year.

Brian Daboll's friend Joe Judge thought he had a lot more time than he had. He probably went from texting Daboll in Nov/Dec to start recruiting him for his coordinator job to congratulating him for replacing him. that is the NFL and if a rookie head coach isn't aware of that they aren't going to be a head coach for long.

if they thought trubisky gave them a better chance than jones they would have signed him and traded jones. Case Keenum got traded, Jones could have too.

if they thought there was a rookie QB in this draft who would have given them a better chance, they would have taken that player, especially if they fell to round 3 which all the non-pickett QBs did.

none of those were great options but it doesn't change the fact that they are giving jones a season as their starter. if it doesn't go well i expect they will pivot on a dime to a rookie next year but by year 2 first time coaches are usually at the top of the vegas hot seat lists.

5-10 coaches get fired every black monday and usually the 14 coaches that make the playoffs are safe.

being the group that doesn't make the playoffs is a 50/50 proposition. being in it 2 years in a row is basically dead man walking (like rhule) or dead man dead (like judge).
Eric I'm not sure why you are being so rigid about this  
NoGainDayne : 5/10/2022 10:45 am : link
it's narrowing your thinking tremendously. These things aren't binary and you are only analyzing the risks on one side of the equation. Check this scenario:

Giants go 7-10 have the 20th ranked scoring offense and pick near the middle of the round. Jones has a 20 TD / 13 INT season with some decent rushing yards. Now you are JS and BD, what is the bigger risk? Some half measure with Jones where you sign him to something like 2 / 50 or taking the chance on some more overpaid FA QB if there is one? Can you even trade up to the top 5 to get a QB? Maybe the people up there just want the top QBs themselves. You are again, making a lot of assumptions. To me, you cut bait with your owners sacred cow and you are exposing yourself to MORE risk. Another owner that doesn't get quite so attached to players you might say no it's a bigger risk to roll with a QB I know maxes out at mediocre. But to your point they want to keep their jobs and a lot of the time keeping your job means more doing what makes your boss happy than doing the objectively right move.

You are acting like being an NFL GM is some world of isolation where all that matters is performance, interpersonal relations be damned! But the Giants we know fairly factually care about the interpersonal more than most organizations even should. Decisions aren't cut and dry right and wrong and there is a lot of murkiness to it. It will be decision time on Jones well before they have done all their draft research and even know if they can make a trade to get their guy. You are ignoring the same risk that christian also mentioned that was actually the driving force to what everyone ALREADY has argued with Jones when he's played like dogshit. What's the alternative?

So yeah, you are ignoring the data of this year for some pie in the sky idea of some pure meritocracy when there is plenty of data that isn't how the Giants operate. And just hopes and dreams that they don't
RE: forget the new york giants - any first time head coach is on the clock  
Scooter185 : 5/10/2022 10:48 am : link
In comment 15704205 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
steve wilks got canned after 1 year and if you believe him he wanted josh allen while steve keim wanted josh rosen. and that's all, goodbye 5m salary hello defensive coordinator at missouri.

bob quinn and matt patricia were a tandem in detroit but it didn't matter, passed on herbert and never got another pick.

david culley was nick caserio's guy and did an admirable job last year in non-ideal circumstances. congrats here are some steak knives and a fishing reel you're unemployed.

matt rhule has somehow hung on for his 3rd year after passing on chances to pick mac jones last year and move up a couple picks for herbert in 2020. Now his nfl career is the hands of ben mcadoo finding a way to win with matt corral or darnold. he's probably already booking some college visits with his dad this fall to figure out where he's going to matriculate next year.

Brian Daboll's friend Joe Judge thought he had a lot more time than he had. He probably went from texting Daboll in Nov/Dec to start recruiting him for his coordinator job to congratulating him for replacing him. that is the NFL and if a rookie head coach isn't aware of that they aren't going to be a head coach for long.

if they thought trubisky gave them a better chance than jones they would have signed him and traded jones. Case Keenum got traded, Jones could have too.

if they thought there was a rookie QB in this draft who would have given them a better chance, they would have taken that player, especially if they fell to round 3 which all the non-pickett QBs did.

none of those were great options but it doesn't change the fact that they are giving jones a season as their starter. if it doesn't go well i expect they will pivot on a dime to a rookie next year but by year 2 first time coaches are usually at the top of the vegas hot seat lists.

5-10 coaches get fired every black monday and usually the 14 coaches that make the playoffs are safe.

being the group that doesn't make the playoffs is a 50/50 proposition. being in it 2 years in a row is basically dead man walking (like rhule) or dead man dead (like judge).


Exactly why I can't believe they're taking a chance on wasting a year on DG's mistake
Interesting debate NGD and Eric  
cosmicj : 5/10/2022 10:51 am : link
Maybe both of you are right?

Besides his talent issues, Jones is a major injury risk. I think he is out injured by October and makes Schoen’s decision for him.
 
christian : 5/10/2022 11:03 am : link
As uncomfortable as it might be to admit for some — my biggest fear is Jones stays healthy and puts forth a near league average performance in 2022.

I think Daboll is a pretty good offensive coach and could stretch Jones to his limit. And if Jones puts up 24/12, 3800 yard season and the Giants win 6 games, I’m afraid of what happens next.
NGD I don't even understand what your point is  
Eric on Li : 5/10/2022 11:15 am : link
are there political factors involved in all business decisions? sure.

but you can't pick and choose to insert politics in decisions you don't agree with regardless of the logic.

there is zero logic to any NFL coach or GM passing on what they believe to be an upgrade at QB at any time resources permitting - which this offseason did in both UFA and draft. they had the money for trubisky who they coached just last year and they passed on every QB in the draft 3-4x with the exception of Pickett who they passed on twice. those were conscious decisions that Schoen and Daboll had agency in and if they don't they are head coach and gm in name only.

you are inventing reasons as stupid as "the maras don't want a black qb" instead of taking in real data - like every other team passing on this year's rookies multiple times - which should plainly indicate that they just weren't good prospects.
RE: Interesting debate NGD and Eric  
NoGainDayne : 5/10/2022 11:16 am : link
In comment 15704239 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Maybe both of you are right?

Besides his talent issues, Jones is a major injury risk. I think he is out injured by October and makes Schoen’s decision for him.


I'm actually completely willing to acknowledge that he might be right. When in reality we'd all need to have intimate knowledge of what the Mara's, JS and BD are thinking to even take a decent stab at it. And we'd also have to assume that this season doesn't change anyone's thoughts or feelings. Another massive assumption. That's the only place where I think he's wrong. His level of confidence that he seemingly knows that just because a decision is made it's made without the influence of someone's boss just because the stakes are high.

My only point is that the influence could be heavy, it could be light. I don't think it's non-existent given Mara's public comments, that seems highly unlikely.
RE: Eric I'm not sure why you are being so rigid about this  
Mike in NY : 5/10/2022 11:19 am : link
In comment 15704229 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
it's narrowing your thinking tremendously. These things aren't binary and you are only analyzing the risks on one side of the equation. Check this scenario:

Giants go 7-10 have the 20th ranked scoring offense and pick near the middle of the round. Jones has a 20 TD / 13 INT season with some decent rushing yards. Now you are JS and BD, what is the bigger risk? Some half measure with Jones where you sign him to something like 2 / 50 or taking the chance on some more overpaid FA QB if there is one? Can you even trade up to the top 5 to get a QB? Maybe the people up there just want the top QBs themselves. You are again, making a lot of assumptions. To me, you cut bait with your owners sacred cow and you are exposing yourself to MORE risk. Another owner that doesn't get quite so attached to players you might say no it's a bigger risk to roll with a QB I know maxes out at mediocre. But to your point they want to keep their jobs and a lot of the time keeping your job means more doing what makes your boss happy than doing the objectively right move.

You are acting like being an NFL GM is some world of isolation where all that matters is performance, interpersonal relations be damned! But the Giants we know fairly factually care about the interpersonal more than most organizations even should. Decisions aren't cut and dry right and wrong and there is a lot of murkiness to it. It will be decision time on Jones well before they have done all their draft research and even know if they can make a trade to get their guy. You are ignoring the same risk that christian also mentioned that was actually the driving force to what everyone ALREADY has argued with Jones when he's played like dogshit. What's the alternative?

So yeah, you are ignoring the data of this year for some pie in the sky idea of some pure meritocracy when there is plenty of data that isn't how the Giants operate. And just hopes and dreams that they don't


If that is his production, he won't sniff anything near 2/50 on the open market. Mitch Trubisky's final year as a starter in Chicago he was 6-3 with a 16/8 TD/INT in 10 games (9 Starts) and got nothing in Free Agent market.
I think you are ignoring my points and inventing new ones  
NoGainDayne : 5/10/2022 11:21 am : link
wherever those QBs were picked that was a fine risk reward for that team. Are you honestly telling me the the Titans are in a worse QB position than us? They are trying to compete this year, I'd argue they had less room to throw a 3rd round pick out. They had less picks. Why was Willis a valid risk / reward for them in that spot but not for us?

I'd venture the Mara's feelings likely explicitly or implicitly played into the valuation of these rookie QBs. They likely would have had to deal with political things with Mara pulling the trigger on it if they even could sell it to him. I'm talking about the possibility of this, you are saying no chance. So prove me wrong.
.  
Go Terps : 5/10/2022 11:21 am : link
I think they're betting that Jones will continue to stink on ice. Philly, Detroit, and Houston each have more than one first round pick next year - they'll have the fuel to move up in the draft to get a QB.

Shed Gettleman players, get a high draft pick, and start the clock for real with the QB draft pick in '23. I think that's the plan.
RE: RE: Eric I'm not sure why you are being so rigid about this  
NoGainDayne : 5/10/2022 11:29 am : link
In comment 15704270 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 15704229 NoGainDayne said:


Quote:

If that is his production, he won't sniff anything near 2/50 on the open market. Mitch Trubisky's final year as a starter in Chicago he was 6-3 with a 16/8 TD/INT in 10 games (9 Starts) and got nothing in Free Agent market.


Nobody was in love with Trubisky in Buffalo. I hope I'm wrong. I'm not saying this is likely just possible.

Let's not pretend like we aren't seeing a new regime with shades of the old one. As others have pointed out it was a big risk already to roll with Jones and no young alternative that could potentially be the QB of the future this year.

It's certainly possible that it's what Terps just said. But as christian pointed out in this thread it gets tough on the margins of these decisions. Jones failing or getting injured makes it easy. Between failure and success there is lots of risk and unknown. I don't know how anyone could at all be sure of what is going to happen with Mara. I think people ignore how close we were to Judge staying. He has no interest in changing any change was fairly obviously forced on him and it is not a difficult projection to say if pressure eases at all he could easily be all over the Jones decision
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 5/10/2022 11:31 am : link
In comment 15704252 christian said:
Quote:
As uncomfortable as it might be to admit for some — my biggest fear is Jones stays healthy and puts forth a near league average performance in 2022.

I think Daboll is a pretty good offensive coach and could stretch Jones to his limit. And if Jones puts up 24/12, 3800 yard season and the Giants win 6 games, I’m afraid of what happens next.


so far a lot of what Beane did in BUF has been foretelling. when Tyrod took them to the playoffs in 2017, with a winning record as BUF starter and a pro bowl appearance 2 years earlier, they still made the decision to trade him in March 2018 before they knew they'd be in position to draft Josh Allen.

For Jones to get an extension I think he'd need to have a monster season way above expectations. 10+ wins, win division, and not the way Hurts won a division last year. Probably would need to turn in a good playoff performance too. Tyrod's last game as a Bill was a 17 for 37, 134 yard, 0 td, 1 int performance in a 3-10 loss against Jax. 2.4 y/a. So imo either Jones shows he's a qb you can win "because of" or he's gone.

To get tagged/shopped perhaps the bar is slightly lower ("win with" a la cousins/garapolo/tannehill) knowing that may be a useful strategic move before knowing what they will be able to get in the draft. but that will also depend on the QB market. they can't tag him without knowing they can move him if they need to, otherwise the better move would be to let him get a cousins type contract in FA from someone else and collect the 3rd round comp pick.
RE: …  
The Jake : 5/10/2022 11:33 am : link
In comment 15704252 christian said:
Quote:
As uncomfortable as it might be to admit for some — my biggest fear is Jones stays healthy and puts forth a near league average performance in 2022.

I think Daboll is a pretty good offensive coach and could stretch Jones to his limit. And if Jones puts up 24/12, 3800 yard season and the Giants win 6 games, I’m afraid of what happens next.


christian i’m with you 100%. what happens next is a strong possibility of a DJ extension, with numbers close to what he would have received with the 5th year option.

that is my fear as well, and it will be the real rubber meets the road moment of Joe Schoen’s tenure as GM if it happens.
RE: I think you are ignoring my points and inventing new ones  
Eric on Li : 5/10/2022 11:44 am : link
In comment 15704276 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
wherever those QBs were picked that was a fine risk reward for that team. Are you honestly telling me the the Titans are in a worse QB position than us? They are trying to compete this year, I'd argue they had less room to throw a 3rd round pick out. They had less picks. Why was Willis a valid risk / reward for them in that spot but not for us?

I'd venture the Mara's feelings likely explicitly or implicitly played into the valuation of these rookie QBs. They likely would have had to deal with political things with Mara pulling the trigger on it if they even could sell it to him. I'm talking about the possibility of this, you are saying no chance. So prove me wrong.


you continue to only see things through the lens of john mara's feelings.

why did the seahawks pass on malik willis 4x and not take any QB?
why did the lions pass on him 4x and not take any qb?
why did the texans pass on him 5x?
why did the panthers not move up 8 picks for him in rd 3 over Corral?
why did the falcons pass on Willis 5x and pick Ridder over him?
why did only 4 QBs go day 1/2 and so many teams needing QBs not take a QB at all the entire draft?

some of those teams' beat writers had Willis in consideration with their top 10 picks and yet they passed, and passed, and passed, and passed some more. Vegas had him in their top 10 odds for 1OA pick.

did they all pass because "Mara's feelings likely explicitly or implicitly played into the valuation of these rookie QBs"?
I think what you are missing is I'm talking about the possible  
NoGainDayne : 5/10/2022 11:49 am : link
and you are fixated on certain things. I think you are projecting your fixation onto me when I'm talking about the unknown of Mara influence.

I'm talking about the "more" influence scenarios more because those are the ones you are completely ignoring. I see your side, you don't see mine because you'd prefer not to.

And that's fine but I think you think I'm being rigid when I'm acknowledging my openness to other possibilities and you aren't at all
....  
BrettNYG10 : 5/10/2022 12:12 pm : link
There wasn't a good path to upgrading the QB position. The market spoke on the QBs in the draft, IMO. I'd have liked to see a low risk shot on net with a Howell pick or Strong signing, but I'm not going to cry bloody murder.

Jones is the best of a bad option. And if he continues to suck they'll let Taylor (who also kind of sucks) start. I suspect we're hunting for a QB next year.
"the possible" ≠ facts/data/your whole schtick  
Eric on Li : 5/10/2022 12:15 pm : link
joe schoen and brian daboll could possibly be aliens. so sure, i guess we have some alignment there, anything is possible.

this entire discussion is stupidly cyclical as they all are but ill leave it with this - Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll have only extended the contract of 1 player. Dexter Lawrence. That's it. Gms/coaches vote with their dollars and that's the only inherited player they've committed new dollars to while declining/cutting/firing/replacing 20% or more of the roster/front office (not counting the another 20% of the roster that are rookies). that is cold hard fact. everything else is just noise.
RE: ....  
Eric on Li : 5/10/2022 12:22 pm : link
In comment 15704327 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
There wasn't a good path to upgrading the QB position. The market spoke on the QBs in the draft, IMO. I'd have liked to see a low risk shot on net with a Howell pick or Strong signing, but I'm not going to cry bloody murder.

Jones is the best of a bad option. And if he continues to suck they'll let Taylor (who also kind of sucks) start. I suspect we're hunting for a QB next year.


that's how i see it. I'd personally have preferred saving the $ on Taylor and drafting Howell in the 4th but obviously that's thanks to hindsight knowing Howell would fall to day 3.

the $ saved on Taylor could have signed another veteran G on the level of Glowinski, which would have given them at least 1 less pick needed on the OL that could have gone elsewhere like to a DB or Nakobe Dean. I'd bet almost any rookie taken day 2 would go on to start more games as a nyg than Taylor will.
RE: ....  
Lines of Scrimmage : 5/10/2022 12:24 pm : link
In comment 15704327 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
There wasn't a good path to upgrading the QB position. The market spoke on the QBs in the draft, IMO. I'd have liked to see a low risk shot on net with a Howell pick or Strong signing, but I'm not going to cry bloody murder.

Jones is the best of a bad option. And if he continues to suck they'll let Taylor (who also kind of sucks) start. I suspect we're hunting for a QB next year.


Every so often on these threads you get a very good assessment of the situation. This is one of a few of them.
Again one side of the coin  
NoGainDayne : 5/10/2022 12:25 pm : link
what I or are talking about could be looked at as a half measure. How many “old regime” QBs do we see trades when a new regime comes on. Look right in the same city one year ago. You are looking at not picking up the option as some demonstration that they are ready to depart from the old things when in actuality it’s closer to the middle path. You refusing to acknowledge that is not a not a “shtick” nor is looking at probabilistic outcomes. This is a complicated situation and you are making it out to be a simple black and white analysis and I’m sorry but that’s wrong. If you don’t see Mara’s press conference as a sign that he may not be as hands off as you are suggesting then it’s you ignoring data not me. I understand it may be frustrating to debate with someone that doesn’t pick sides but murky data has murky answers not the clean one you see suggesting where Mara just sits back and gives up complete control for the first time in however many years while still talking like someone calling the shots. You can act like I’m the one coming with the BS but it’s actually you because declining an option and signing a QB that you don’t even allow a training camp competition with isn’t exactly some irrefutable evidence of substantive change
NGD  
Lines of Scrimmage : 5/10/2022 12:39 pm : link
Most people would like Mara to speak less. When his words came out it was very reasonable to put the antenna up. Since his words the following has happened.

Hired new Asst. GM, JS seemed to run the draft, several people in prominent front office roles have been relieved along with a couple scouts. JS just hired a scout from the Colts. He will hire more people. All these things were after hiring his HC where many seemed to think Mara had a preference for Flores.

Not sure how you are not seeing a pattern here that maybe Mara is in fact stepping away.
It’s all a spectrum  
NoGainDayne : 5/10/2022 12:45 pm : link
It isn’t a binary is my point.

That speech told me he’s not ready to be hands off. And if he’s going to stick his hands into anything (even if they are completely off everything else) it’s going to be Jones.

I see progress, I don’t confuse progress with the ideal or dream ever. I think some are jumping all the way to the ideal just because they’ve seen steps in the right direction. I also see those but to not acknowledge how far we have to go from where we were to the ideal ownership situation is also not looking at things honestly
I think the point that with a completely impartial owner  
cosmicj : 5/10/2022 12:49 pm : link
Schoen may have ditched Jones is sound. No one says it’s certain. It’s a Rashomon situation: Schoen doesn’t exactly know what Mara thinks and Mara is such a fool he may not know what he himself thinks. So it’s ambiguous but it plays in Jones’ favor.
RE: ....  
bw in dc : 5/10/2022 12:56 pm : link
In comment 15704327 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
There wasn't a good path to upgrading the QB position. The market spoke on the QBs in the draft, IMO. I'd have liked to see a low risk shot on net with a Howell pick or Strong signing, but I'm not going to cry bloody murder.

Jones is the best of a bad option. And if he continues to suck they'll let Taylor (who also kind of sucks) start. I suspect we're hunting for a QB next year.


I'm at the same spot. The market spoke and only one QB was considered a first-round risk - Pickett. I was/am very surprised that the rest of the QBs slipped into the third round or later.

In hindsight, I guess the tells were pretty clear that Schoen/Daboll/Mara weren't interested in the 2022 QBs...

-- Signing of Taylor to a fairly material contract.
-- Comments that Taylor was indeed going to be the back-up to Jones (they weren't smoke).
-- Mara coming out before the draft and essentially blaming himself for Jones's underwhelming three year peformance.

I would have rolled the dice in the second round for Willis/Corral. And declared an open tryout for the starting position. If Willis/Corral didn't look the part, then cut bait and move aggressively for a QB in 2023.

Alas, a pipedream... ;)
RE: ...  
Sean : 5/10/2022 1:09 pm : link
In comment 15704059 christian said:
Quote:
Sean, Googs -- let me put it this way: what do you think Jones has to do to **not** get franchised tagged after this year?

Do what he’s always done. He has yet to play a full season, win or produce productivity. I don’t think that will all of a sudden change under Daboll.

For as well as his rookie year is perceived by some, a chunk of those stats came against TB, NYJ & WFT in 3 games.
Stop  
Thegratefulhead : 5/10/2022 1:10 pm : link
Jones will put a lot of stats this year. I will wager with anyone it is going to look like Goff & Cousins better years. There will be approximately 130 passes thrown into the no cover zone, like the Chiefs did when they finally started rolling. Single read, quick passes into the hands of playmakers in space. Throw the last 2 years out the window completely. Garret was stone age.

Think about what you expected in year 2 for Daniel had he shown some progression, this team is better than that one too, need to factor that.

That will not be good enough for me. I need to see near year 3 Josh Allen productivty for me to want to sign Jones. That is why are seeing so many hear say, " Even if Daniel had a good year..." It really needs to be better than good for a second contract.

David B  
JonC : 5/10/2022 1:16 pm : link
Nice post, that's the rub.
RE: Stop  
Lines of Scrimmage : 5/10/2022 1:30 pm : link
In comment 15704406 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
Jones will put a lot of stats this year. I will wager with anyone it is going to look like Goff & Cousins better years. There will be approximately 130 passes thrown into the no cover zone, like the Chiefs did when they finally started rolling. Single read, quick passes into the hands of playmakers in space. Throw the last 2 years out the window completely. Garret was stone age.

Think about what you expected in year 2 for Daniel had he shown some progression, this team is better than that one too, need to factor that.

That will not be good enough for me. I need to see near year 3 Josh Allen productivty for me to want to sign Jones. That is why are seeing so many hear say, " Even if Daniel had a good year..." It really needs to be better than good for a second contract.


That stats will be there for a NFL starting QB with a very good supporting cast and coaching. The standard needs to be raised. You need to see a few special plays a game under stressful situations/big moments. Stats don't show this but this is the only scenario where Jones earns more time unless they feel they can't upgrade next year imv.
RE: Stop  
Jimmy Googs : 5/10/2022 1:39 pm : link
In comment 15704406 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
Jones will put a lot of stats this year. I will wager with anyone it is going to look like Goff & Cousins better years. There will be approximately 130 passes thrown into the no cover zone, like the Chiefs did when they finally started rolling. Single read, quick passes into the hands of playmakers in space. Throw the last 2 years out the window completely. Garret was stone age.

Think about what you expected in year 2 for Daniel had he shown some progression, this team is better than that one too, need to factor that.

That will not be good enough for me. I need to see near year 3 Josh Allen productivty for me to want to sign Jones. That is why are seeing so many hear say, " Even if Daniel had a good year..." It really needs to be better than good for a second contract.


Goff/Cousins better years are like 4,400 passing yards, 35 TDs and 12 INTs, plus a couple of rushing TDs.

good luck...

RE: RE: Stop  
Thegratefulhead : 5/10/2022 3:59 pm : link
In comment 15704445 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
In comment 15704406 Thegratefulhead said:


Quote:


Jones will put a lot of stats this year. I will wager with anyone it is going to look like Goff & Cousins better years. There will be approximately 130 passes thrown into the no cover zone, like the Chiefs did when they finally started rolling. Single read, quick passes into the hands of playmakers in space. Throw the last 2 years out the window completely. Garret was stone age.

Think about what you expected in year 2 for Daniel had he shown some progression, this team is better than that one too, need to factor that.

That will not be good enough for me. I need to see near year 3 Josh Allen productivty for me to want to sign Jones. That is why are seeing so many hear say, " Even if Daniel had a good year..." It really needs to be better than good for a second contract.




Goff/Cousins better years are like 4,400 passing yards, 35 TDs and 12 INTs, plus a couple of rushing TDs.

good luck...
More like 2017 Goff & Cousins. However, I think your better season mention strengthens what I am trying to say.

Systems can make average QBs put up misleading stats.

Teams have chosen to move on from Cousins AND Goff.

Jones needs a monster year to stay.
Greatfulhead  
Jimmy Googs : 5/10/2022 4:43 pm : link
I agree it really has to be a very strong year, consistent from start to finish, and at least appear repeatable.

Otherwise, forget it...
grateful  
Go Terps : 5/10/2022 4:48 pm : link
Jones has never shown anything remotely close to 2017 Cousins or Goff. Those guys have been much better and more productive players.

Additionally, Jones is playing on an offense with very little talent. If it goes well it'll be a surprise.
RE: grateful  
Thegratefulhead : 5/10/2022 5:05 pm : link
In comment 15704616 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Jones has never shown anything remotely close to 2017 Cousins or Goff. Those guys have been much better and more productive players.

Additionally, Jones is playing on an offense with very little talent. If it goes well it'll be a surprise.
I don't know Terps.

I have seen enough Jones passes to know I don't want him.

I also saw Jones under Shurmur.

In a one read system, Jones put up reasonable stats for a rookie.

The OL is better this year. The playmakers actually fit the system and Daboll/Kafka are better than Shurmur. 40 Percent of Barkley's carries are going to be completions instead. The faithful are going to go crazy, the will be screaming how right they were.

What do you think Mara does with 68% 29 TDs a couple rushing TDs 13 ints 4k yards in 17 games. You and both know in a Kafka/Dabool system that might rush for an entire half, that is nothing.
Jones played four good games under Shurmur  
Go Terps : 5/10/2022 5:11 pm : link
That was before the entire league knew his limitations, and by the end of that year it was clear there was a problem.

I'm actually not worried about this. I believe not picking up his option sealed his fate here; I'm a bit annoyed we have to endure another scholarship year but overall I feel pretty good that Schoen isn't a moron.

Only a moron would pay Jones more than backup money. I think we're ok.
RE: Jones played four good games under Shurmur  
Thegratefulhead : 5/10/2022 6:25 pm : link
In comment 15704624 Go Terps said:
Quote:
That was before the entire league knew his limitations, and by the end of that year it was clear there was a problem.

I'm actually not worried about this. I believe not picking up his option sealed his fate here; I'm a bit annoyed we have to endure another scholarship year but overall I feel pretty good that Schoen isn't a moron.

Only a moron would pay Jones more than backup money. I think we're ok.
Terps, when you say moron the first thing that pops into my head is Mara. Daboll and Kafka will scheme, they are going to ask Jones to make glorified hand offs to Toney, Robinson and Barkley. Some of those will go a long way.
.  
Go Terps : 5/10/2022 6:27 pm : link
If they're asking Jones to make quick decisions and accurate throws to create YAC they're going to be sorely disappointed. Nothing he does is quick and decisive.
Didn’t Gettleman say year 3 is when a QB pops?  
Sean : 5/10/2022 8:07 pm : link
Forget how archaic that way of thinking is in todays NFL, but that third year came and went. And now this is the year he will pop I suppose.

I’ve got nothing against Jones, I just think moving on quicker is better for the franchise. He’s an extension of a prior front office. No one here will care when Golladay is cut next year, and he actually has produced at this level. What’s the difference?
The sooner we move on...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 5/10/2022 8:17 pm : link
The better. For all of us.
RE: Didn’t Gettleman say year 3 is when a QB pops?  
Scooter185 : 5/10/2022 9:22 pm : link
In comment 15704779 Sean said:
Quote:
Forget how archaic that way of thinking is in todays NFL, but that third year came and went. And now this is the year he will pop I suppose.

I’ve got nothing against Jones, I just think moving on quicker is better for the franchise. He’s an extension of a prior front office. No one here will care when Golladay is cut next year, and he actually has produced at this level. What’s the difference?


Well 2020 doesn't count because of COVID and 21 doesn't count because of Judge and Garrett, so 2022 is really Jones second year
RE: Interesting debate NGD and Eric  
giantstock : 5/11/2022 1:35 am : link
In comment 15704239 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Maybe both of you are right?

Besides his talent issues, Jones is a major injury risk. I think he is out injured by October and makes Schoen’s decision for him.


They aren't[ both right. NGD is arguing "smoke and mirrors."

He says DJ is the worst starting QB in the NFL. Yet he also says you can't trust 2023. Well if you have the worst starting QB and you’re under a major rebuild, then doesn’t it stand to reason that there is a good chance that you are going to suck?

And even his comment about DJ; it's without context when he says "The worst starter in the NFL." The Giants had an OL that was ranked by PFF 30th and 31st the past two years. Their WR's were either hurt or sucked as was their TE's. And their RB was always hurt. So even if you are slightly below average QB and you have a pathetic coach, doesn't it stand to reason that you are going to be awful with all this other CRAP?

And he is making a big dela about the starting QB. Let's call them both backup QB's for argument’s sake. Since when is it a big dela to announce that you are going to go with the younger QB on a rebuilding team???????????????

When you blow away all the smoke NGD is throwing out there, it just comes down to a rebuilding team going with the younger "backup QB" to start the season rather than the older one to see if there is anything in the tank considering the overall crappy hand he's been dealt.

And if that doesn’t work, just like many teams in the NFL that didn’t get a QB with the top 2 picks, they strive to find one (and get one) outside of a top 2. That's a pretty common practice that he and some others don’t seem to understand especially for a team that is rebuilding with the worst QB in the NFL as he states.

In summary 1-- Worst QB in NFL. 2-- Team Rebuilding. 3-- A defense not good. -- And yet you can't plan to have a very good draft pick in 2023 with all of this? Seriously?

RE: Didn’t Gettleman say year 3 is when a QB pops?  
giantstock : 5/11/2022 1:42 am : link
In comment 15704779 Sean said:
Quote:
Forget how archaic that way of thinking is in todays NFL, but that third year came and went. And now this is the year he will pop I suppose.

I’ve got nothing against Jones, I just think moving on quicker is better for the franchise. He’s an extension of a prior front office. No one here will care when Golladay is cut next year, and he actually has produced at this level. What’s the difference?


Are you kidding with this post of yours? OFC you have something against Jones. Stop that nonsense. You're exactly starting what you have against him and many of your other posts. You think he sucks. So stop with the bullshit.

But are you serious using Gettleman as na example???? Arguably the worst GM the Giants ever had and you are quoting what he thinks? Yeah right. You got nothing against Jones. Thanks for the comedy. C'mon!!!!!!

Okay you think he sucks. You want him gone. But using Gettleman as a case in point???????????????????
over punctuating...  
Jimmy Googs : 5/11/2022 8:12 am : link


RE: RE: Interesting debate NGD and Eric  
NoGainDayne : 5/11/2022 5:45 pm : link
In comment 15704972 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 15704239 cosmicj said:


Quote:


Maybe both of you are right?

Besides his talent issues, Jones is a major injury risk. I think he is out injured by October and makes Schoen’s decision for him.



They aren't[ both right. NGD is arguing "smoke and mirrors."

He says DJ is the worst starting QB in the NFL. Yet he also says you can't trust 2023. Well if you have the worst starting QB and you’re under a major rebuild, then doesn’t it stand to reason that there is a good chance that you are going to suck?

And even his comment about DJ; it's without context when he says "The worst starter in the NFL." The Giants had an OL that was ranked by PFF 30th and 31st the past two years. Their WR's were either hurt or sucked as was their TE's. And their RB was always hurt. So even if you are slightly below average QB and you have a pathetic coach, doesn't it stand to reason that you are going to be awful with all this other CRAP?

And he is making a big dela about the starting QB. Let's call them both backup QB's for argument’s sake. Since when is it a big dela to announce that you are going to go with the younger QB on a rebuilding team???????????????

When you blow away all the smoke NGD is throwing out there, it just comes down to a rebuilding team going with the younger "backup QB" to start the season rather than the older one to see if there is anything in the tank considering the overall crappy hand he's been dealt.

And if that doesn’t work, just like many teams in the NFL that didn’t get a QB with the top 2 picks, they strive to find one (and get one) outside of a top 2. That's a pretty common practice that he and some others don’t seem to understand especially for a team that is rebuilding with the worst QB in the NFL as he states.

In summary 1-- Worst QB in NFL. 2-- Team Rebuilding. 3-- A defense not good. -- And yet you can't plan to have a very good draft pick in 2023 with all of this? Seriously?


Not sure what your issue is lately but you seem quite angry. Is everything ok?

Nothing smoke and mirrors about my argument just certain people refusing to acknowledge signs that Mara an incredibly hands on owner isn't ready to be completely hands off. I can't believe that is something that I even have to point out but hey, some people just want to look at the good sides of this team. As for some particular points you seem completely lost on.

1) I've never said I expect the team or defense to be bad. I actually have higher expectations for them than I have in many years because we don't have a bunch of clowns in the building.

2) Saying Daniel Jones wouldn't start for another team doesn't mean I think he's the worst starting QB. But who exactly do you think he's better than? Davis Mills had more Y/A and for all the complaints about the OL a higher sack %. Don't think ATL would prefer Jones and his $8M hit to Mariota and his 4.25. Drew Lock also had a higher Y/A last year on a higher sack %. You act like I'm saying something outrageous with that but Jones has been real bad. Teams would not be lining up to start him in any way shape or form.

3) Many people on this thread get what I'm saying, it's hard to agree with "smoke and mirrors" getting rid of Jones was absolutely an option and an option that many GMs that want a real clean slate would jump at. Hard to think that was a real option for the Giants the way the owner fawns over the QB. And victimizes him. Talk about a start quality, someone everyone is telling you to pity! Give me a break
RE: Interesting debate NGD and Eric  
giantstock : 5/12/2022 3:05 am : link
In comment 15705581 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
In comment 15704972 giantstock said:


Quote:







Not sure what your issue is lately but you seem quite angry. Is everything ok?



I wasn't angry. My post to you wasn't any worse than you calling Eric "rigid" and how he is "narrowly thinking." Along with telling him he is "ignoring your points and inventing new ones."

First off, when you say Jones wouldn't start for another team, how is that not suggesting he is the worst starting QB in the league? And your other questions to me about this- why are they relevant? I've implied/stated to you that the team is going to suck. So why would you think it relevant to ask me about which QB's he might be better than? I’m acknowledging he is most likely a goner.

Anyhow, you say on here that you don’t expect the team to be that bad because the clowns are gone. SO you naturally expect better performance. Yet why wouldn't this also apply to the QB too? Why do you expect overall the team would be raised from God-Awful ot "not that bad" but not the QB?

And-- if you say that you don’t expect the team to be that bad and they do become "that bad," then you would admit that you were wrong? You have on this thread posts saying "People seem confident that we will be able to cut bait if he has a less than great season I’m not so confident." -- Well “Yes,” what if some of us are much more confident than you? Then the TT issue vs Jones is irrelevant, and the Mara issue is "mostly" irrelevant, right?

And when you say - "Don't put all your eggs in one basket." What if those of us that feel/felt strongly the Giants were going to be bad and thus in a position to draft a high ranking QB- then your generic comment of “Don't put all your eggs in one basket" would be wrong, correct?

And then to further that, if those of us are right that the Giants are going to suck, then your argument about not playing the younger guy is thrown out the window too, right? Why wouldn't a team that we know is going to suck go with a younger player whom by your own admission had piss-poor coaching throughout his career? You're willing to pray on a laer round QB, why not pray for a younger QB?

So when you make comments about for example the team is not that bad in one breath, then in another manner you tell Eric "Your side actually ignores data we have on hopes that things have changed. Hope is not sound logic." Much of your argument is built on HOPE (and prayer). You understand you are in an extreme minority that think the giants aren't a bad team, right? That's why I've said your comments are "smoke and mirrors." ****You're making a way too big of a deal about two backup QB's and Mara, while "probably" incorrectly assessing how bad this team is going to be. And as a result, you did say you would have drafted a QB this year - imo another wrong move because imo you're relying on nothing more than hope and prayer - the very thing you accuse others of.
Give it a rest already  
Producer : 5/12/2022 9:22 am : link
Jones has been terrible and he will likely continue to be terrible.

You're spending hours defending a bad player.
giantstock he was being rigid  
NoGainDayne : 5/12/2022 2:09 pm : link
in refusing to acknowledge the possibility that Mara both has and will have an impact on the handling of Jones. It's willful ignorance and yes ignoring data. Data that doesn't prove he is interfering but there is also woefully insufficient data to prove he hasn't or won't interfere. That is complete hope and wishful thinking.

It continues to be odd that you seem to think you are finding holes in my logic when those holes have been created from you making massive assumptions about what I'm actually saying.

1) You seem to have a real problem parsing the data in my words.
Quote:
I've never said I expect the team or defense to be bad. I actually have higher expectations for them than I have in many years because we don't have a bunch of clowns in the building.
I have higher expectations than the absolutely putrid ones I've had for the team in the past. Daniel Jones is my biggest problem with the team. And you want to talk about bad projection given the data? There is zero data in college or pros to suggest Daniel Jones is going to produce good stats. Zero. You are inventing data that isn't even a result of a linear distribution, he's not on the upswing there is no logical methodology to project better data. That is pure hope, expecting a fairly fixed pattern of underachievement to change just because a coach changes. It's possible but certainly not at all probable or something to be banked on. What am I talking about then? I loved the focus on depth this offseason. If you ask me our biggest problems have been the way injuries hurt us more than any other team and that is a very logical reason I have higher hopes for the season. The over-confident clown brigade we had here before had a terrible proficiency at scouting their own team. That is a tangible logical change in expectation, not the ability to suddenly turn Jones a player with very bad pocket awareness and ability to read defenses and process information. That is something you can alleviate the downsides with but that is not a fixable problem and it is one that Sy pointed out and has been clear and consistent in his play for years. That is a strong and consistent data set that you are projecting a break from so yeah, it's easy to criticize you for that kind of wishful thinking.

2) I don't know where you come off trying to critique me for saying I don't think Jones starts for another team. Either tell me the other teams he'd start for or you actually are not making a point at all.

3) I completely agree with you "playing the younger guy" when you suck is by far the best decision. But you are missing the most important part of playing the younger guy. Striking gold on cap savings if you find a viable QB. That's why playing a rookie is the most essential. Jones is actually the COMPLETE opposite of that. He's a guy that who in the absolute best case scenario you'd be paying someone with a history of injuries with ONE out of 4 seasons being any good, and paying that player handsomely. You and many underate the importance of the cap, which is puzzling considering how it's fucking us this year. When your team is no good which you seem quite settled they will be all the more reason to try to set up this arbitrage opportunity that would be quite frankly the easiest and fastest way to pull us out a the gutter a CHEAP viable starter. That's the thing. All things equal if we have a rookie play the exact same season as Jones does this year they would have been way, way more valuable than Jones going forward. This is a capped league man, "young vs. old" matter a lot less than how much a player costs. And especially at QB from a game theory standpoint giving snaps to any player that could be a hit on value in the following seasons has potential to be great.

Jones, no matter how you slice it won't be on a good value next year because at best you are paying top dollar for a QB that you know needs his team and coaches to elevate him to be any good. Why wouldn't you prefer to have someone that doesn't need that, that can be even better with those same players and coaches? The stockholm syndrome in some of you is unbelievable



RE: giantstock he was being rigid  
BlueVinnie : 5/12/2022 4:06 pm : link
In comment 15706471 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:

Jones, no matter how you slice it won't be on a good value next year because at best you are paying top dollar for a QB that you know needs his team and coaches to elevate him to be any good. Why wouldn't you prefer to have someone that doesn't need that, that can be even better with those same players and coaches? The stockholm syndrome in some of you is unbelievable



You can't sum it up much better than this! Well stated.
RE: giantstock he was being rigid  
giantstock : 5/13/2022 1:26 am : link
In comment 15706471 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
in refusing to acknowledge the possibility that Mara both has and will have an impact on the handling of Jones. It's willful ignorance and yes ignoring data. Data that doesn't prove he is interfering but there is also woefully insufficient data to prove he hasn't or won't interfere. That is complete hope and wishful thinking.

It continues to be odd that you seem to think you are finding holes in my logic when those holes have been created from you making massive assumptions about what I'm actually saying.

1) You seem to have a real problem parsing the data in my words.

Quote:


I've never said I expect the team or defense to be bad. I actually have higher expectations for them than I have in many years because we don't have a bunch of clowns in the building.

I have higher expectations than the absolutely putrid ones I've had for the team in the past. Daniel Jones is my biggest problem with the team. And you want to talk about bad projection given the data? There is zero data in college or pros to suggest Daniel Jones is going to produce good stats. Zero. You are inventing data that isn't even a result of a linear distribution, he's not on the upswing there is no logical methodology to project better data. That is pure hope, expecting a fairly fixed pattern of underachievement to change just because a coach changes. It's possible but certainly not at all probable or something to be banked on. What am I talking about then? I loved the focus on depth this offseason. If you ask me our biggest problems have been the way injuries hurt us more than any other team and that is a very logical reason I have higher hopes for the season. The over-confident clown brigade we had here before had a terrible proficiency at scouting their own team. That is a tangible logical change in expectation, not the ability to suddenly turn Jones a player with very bad pocket awareness and ability to read defenses and process information. That is something you can alleviate the downsides with but that is not a fixable problem and it is one that Sy pointed out and has been clear and consistent in his play for years. That is a strong and consistent data set that you are projecting a break from so yeah, it's easy to criticize you for that kind of wishful thinking.

2) I don't know where you come off trying to critique me for saying I don't think Jones starts for another team. Either tell me the other teams he'd start for or you actually are not making a point at all.

3) I completely agree with you "playing the younger guy" when you suck is by far the best decision. But you are missing the most important part of playing the younger guy. Striking gold on cap savings if you find a viable QB. That's why playing a rookie is the most essential. Jones is actually the COMPLETE opposite of that. He's a guy that who in the absolute best case scenario you'd be paying someone with a history of injuries with ONE out of 4 seasons being any good, and paying that player handsomely. You and many underate the importance of the cap, which is puzzling considering how it's fucking us this year. When your team is no good which you seem quite settled they will be all the more reason to try to set up this arbitrage opportunity that would be quite frankly the easiest and fastest way to pull us out a the gutter a CHEAP viable starter. That's the thing. All things equal if we have a rookie play the exact same season as Jones does this year they would have been way, way more valuable than Jones going forward. This is a capped league man, "young vs. old" matter a lot less than how much a player costs. And especially at QB from a game theory standpoint giving snaps to any player that could be a hit on value in the following seasons has potential to be great.

Jones, no matter how you slice it won't be on a good value next year because at best you are paying top dollar for a QB that you know needs his team and coaches to elevate him to be any good. Why wouldn't you prefer to have someone that doesn't need that, that can be even better with those same players and coaches? The stockholm syndrome in some of you is unbelievable




What you are posting to me continues to be all smoke and mirrors. Just like when you said I made an angry post. Just like as you keep asking me about which teams Jones would start for when I told you DJ is probably goner. SO why do you insist on asking me who he might replace? It's because you are using smoke and mirrors. You realize I never agreed or disagreed with your comment, right? So if the team is going to suck and ultimately the Giants get a in great position to draft a quality Qb next year, which has bene argument, then why do you think it be important enough to ask me who the dead-duck QB (Jones) might replace on another team?

Bottomline is - that if we blow away all the smoke- the big difference is that you don't think the Giants will be that bad. That's fine. But for those of us that think we're gona suck, some of us are going to think your points are way off the map, right? For example, you are talking about "Value." For the QB that is a dead-duck which most of us believe after this season, then who cares about QB value for a dead-duck QB (or the backup TT or that backup late rd pick you apparently wanted) when in 2023 you're going to be near the top in the draft getting a potential quality "Cap-Saving CHEAP) young QB?

Next year is the year the Giants are going to have their cheap cap-saving QB. This year you go with the younger QB. And it would be a huge bonus if you can somehow STRIKE GOLD.
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