In his pre-draft evaluation of Daniel Jones, Sy'56 compared him, physically, to Ryan Tannehill, so I'm going to use Tannehill as a benchmark, with the understanding that statistically he's been a better QB than Jones in their respective first four years.
Can you field a competitive team with a Ryan Tannehill at the helm? Absolutely, provided every other facet of your team is strong, or at least above average. Good skill players, good offensive line, good defense and special teams. You'll be competitive. You might even make the playoffs, either by winning your division or as a wild card, if you can stay relatively healthy and get a favorable bounce or two as the season progresses.
Can you field a championship team, though? Probably not, and therein lies the dilemma. The proverbial "game manager" can keep a good team competitive, provided it stays good, but the odds are he won't be able to elevate that team to a championship level. In today's NFL, you need a QB with elite-level skill to do that.
Daniel Jones may be good enough to keep the Giants out of the cellar with a good, strong supporting cast around him, but I doubt he'll ever be able to put the team on his back, if need be, and carry it to The Promised Land.
If all you want is to not be a complete joke, you can keep him and build around him as best you can. If you want to add another Lombardi Trophy or two, you move on, and replace him as soon as you can, "by any means necessary," with a much, much better QB.
an owner gushing to press isn't the ironclad data point you seem to think it is. it's words.
he gushed to the press about judge. and then fired him.
they gushed to the press about Eli. and then benched him after 2 games in 2019.
Tyrod didn't get words - he got 8.2m guaranteed and the highest AAV of any FA they signed in a year where they were looking under couch cushions to find cap $ to spend. And for all the words about Jones he got his option declined.
i can assure you however much you think john mara loves jones he loves eli more and just like that situation if the new guys thought it was in the best interest of the team to draft a rookie or play taylor either will/would have happened.
because jones is both a better quarterback and not 33 years old. there is zero upside in starting tyrod taylor.
Him jumping the gun on that kind of flies in the face about your point of how valued TT is by Mara
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why declare Jones the starter before camp even starts? He not only talked up Jones he talked down Taylor in the process. Why disparage this big investment they made as you characterize it?
because jones is both a better quarterback and not 33 years old. there is zero upside in starting tyrod taylor.
errmm.. I'm not so sure Jones is better than Taylor, in fact.
Taylor has only started 9 games in the last 4 years. he may be the only qb in the nfl more injury prone than jones. in the 5 games he started last year he threw ints at a higher rate than jones and averaged just 160 ypg. he hasn't averaged 200 yards passing per game since 2016. even if you want to call them close to even why in the world would you start the guy who is 33?
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In comment 15703946 NoGainDayne said:
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why declare Jones the starter before camp even starts? He not only talked up Jones he talked down Taylor in the process. Why disparage this big investment they made as you characterize it?
because jones is both a better quarterback and not 33 years old. there is zero upside in starting tyrod taylor.
errmm.. I'm not so sure Jones is better than Taylor, in fact.
to the surprise of nobody.
in all fairness, a lot of people said that last year about Glennon. As a matter of fact, one poster kept insisting Glennon was better even after his tour of duty here.
There is no statistical case to be made for Jones over TT. You could say TT has dropped off but to what? Did TT forget how to play football? Because he'd have to, to play as bad as Jones has.
Lol at the Glennon comparison. Glennon has never sniffed a pro bowl.
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that Jones is a better QB than TT. We've gone through it in other threads and there just is zero data supporting that
Taylor has only started 9 games in the last 4 years. he may be the only qb in the nfl more injury prone than jones. in the 5 games he started last year he threw ints at a higher rate than jones and averaged just 160 ypg. he hasn't averaged 200 yards passing per game since 2016. even if you want to call them close to even why in the world would you start the guy who is 33?
Because if you believe Jones is still an unknown variable, he makes it hard to evaluate everyone else on offense. TT isn't going to be confused for Tom Brady, but would provide a known quantity to the Giants offensive equation instead of a variable.
It's exactly the kind of emotional and non-strategic thinking that has gotten us in trouble
Jones is a stop gap for 2022 until the next guy is drafted which most likely will be next April.
No we don’t. If they bring in a quarterback I ll be 100% behind it
There is no statistical case to be made for Jones over TT. You could say TT has dropped off but to what? Did TT forget how to play football? Because he'd have to, to play as bad as Jones has.
Lol at the Glennon comparison. Glennon has never sniffed a pro bowl.
of course he's done more in the nfl he's been in the NFL since Jones was in high school. He's 8 years older.
and despite that you know how many 300 yard games he has in his 10 year career? 1 in 2016. That's it.
there's a reason nobody signed him to compete for a starting role this offseason and it's because he's not a starting level QB at this point in his career. Jones may not be either but he's 8 years younger.
It's exactly the kind of emotional and non-strategic thinking that has gotten us in trouble
if they did that (like Judge did in 2020) you would say the competition is a farce because it would be. there's no reason to go into a season with tyrod taylor as a starter unless he's caddying for a younger guy who isn't ready yet. trubisky would have been different but either he or they chose to go in a different direction.
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taken a team to the playoffs. Say what you want about how many games he's started. He has done more in the NFL than Jones has by a pretty wide margin so calling Jones better is just a complete projection on a player Jones has never shown himself to be.
There is no statistical case to be made for Jones over TT. You could say TT has dropped off but to what? Did TT forget how to play football? Because he'd have to, to play as bad as Jones has.
Lol at the Glennon comparison. Glennon has never sniffed a pro bowl.
of course he's done more in the nfl he's been in the NFL since Jones was in high school. He's 8 years older.
and despite that you know how many 300 yard games he has in his 10 year career? 1 in 2016. That's it.
there's a reason nobody signed him to compete for a starting role this offseason and it's because he's not a starting level QB at this point in his career. Jones may not be either but he's 8 years younger.
Why is youth a qualification? I'm not sure why 300 yard games is either. IMO the Giants need a QB that can actually run an viable offense so they can properly evaluate their players
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I'm saying why not see how both QBs play in the offense before you name one the starter before your coaches even set foot on their first practice field?
It's exactly the kind of emotional and non-strategic thinking that has gotten us in trouble
if they did that (like Judge did in 2020) you would say the competition is a farce because it would be. there's no reason to go into a season with tyrod taylor as a starter unless he's caddying for a younger guy who isn't ready yet. trubisky would have been different but either he or they chose to go in a different direction.
Or you can do what many teams do and have a real competition in which you give it to the best player. I don't see why it has to be a farce. I think there is very much something to the idea that you let it play out on the field, no one should take any leads from Judge. And if anything it would give Jones some much needed confidence if he was forced to win the job instead of being spoon fed more opportunities than he should have ever been given. It would be good for him to have to earn something himself in the NFL
There are only so many times all of their words and actions can scream they’re building this season around Daniel Jones, before you have to believe them.
Nor is a 3.5% TD percentage or 6.3 AY/A. Those are Jones's career numbers and they are pathetic; yet he's again being handed the starting job without being made to earn it.
Throwaway year at QB.
Dabolls style seems to be intent on giving his players confidence and having them bought in on feeling like they own what they are doing. schoen said they want him loose and not afraid to make mistakes. i have a hard time buying any argument that hews so closely to trying to create the type of atmosphere that didn't work with the previous regime. these guys are all professionals, when they signed Taylor they told him what they expected of his role and then they chose to not draft someone else. they made their decisions, you may not agree but that doesn't mean there's an illogical conspiracy behind it. jones has no contract for next year so im sure he's aware of the reality that he's competing for his nfl career.
Throwaway year at QB.
that may end up the case but if it does it hurts nobody's career more than Daboll's. First time head coaches get 2 years so he's torching 50% of his runway.
Mara loves Eli, Eli gets too many chances when he isn’t producing from that love
Mara loves Jones, Jones already has gotten too many chances when he isn’t producing legitimate concern that will continue
What is it that you dispute? That Mara loves Jones? That Mara hangs on to the players he loves too long? That Mara doesn’t have enough influence anymore to have this affect the decision making?
All of this points seems immensely difficult to prove, clear points make not a conspiracy
There are only so many times all of their words and actions can scream they’re building this season around Daniel Jones, before you have to believe them.
he looked shot in CLE pre-Mayfield. Honestly there's a case to be made he was a pretty big waste of resources they couldn't afford to waste this offseason if they were going all in on jones and not drafting a rookie. obviously couldn't have predicted Howell was going to fall all the way to the 5th but there are always backup types on day 3. hell bring back tanney.
with the way things went hard to not think they'd have been better off signing 1 or 2 of Averett or Wallace or Deshon Elliot for the secondary to give Wink a fighting chance.
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Throwaway year at QB.
that may end up the case but if it does it hurts nobody's career more than Daboll's. First time head coaches get 2 years so he's torching 50% of his runway.
He's getting more than 2 years. Anyone with half a brain knows this was a complete teardown operation and Daboll's been handed a dreadful roster with no viable quarterback.
Based on this offseason all signs point to them tanking this year.
Remember, Judge didn't get fired because of his record. He got fired because he embarrassed himself and the organization twice down the stretch in 2021. And even then Mara probably needed Tisch's intervention to fire him.
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In comment 15703986 Go Terps said:
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Throwaway year at QB.
that may end up the case but if it does it hurts nobody's career more than Daboll's. First time head coaches get 2 years so he's torching 50% of his runway.
He's getting more than 2 years. Anyone with half a brain knows this was a complete teardown operation and Daboll's been handed a dreadful roster with no viable quarterback.
Based on this offseason all signs point to them tanking this year.
Remember, Judge didn't get fired because of his record. He got fired because he embarrassed himself and the organization twice down the stretch in 2021. And even then Mara probably needed Tisch's intervention to fire him.
the circumstances were different but each of the last 3 guys got 2 years. coaches around the league have only gotten 1. no first time head coach can count on more than 2 years even if they are friends with the GM. McAdoo won 11 games in his first year. Judge got an endorsement a month before he got fired. There's no such thing as job security in the NFL for coaches.
As completely low odds as I think it is, they’re making a decent sized bet on Jones.
As completely low odds as I think it is, they’re making a decent sized bet on Jones.
agreed. i was just browsing OTC now that they updated with the bradberry signing. right now (pre rookie deals):
the nyg are essentially tied with 3 teams to spend the 15th most in the NFL on offense right around $100m (pretty high considering have a lot less in their QB1 than most of the offenses ahead of them)
but bottom 6 on defense at $77m
some of this is distorted by varied year to year cap hits and the like but the reality is the defense is crazy thin - especially the secondary which is exactly what broke Wink's D in BAL - and the success of pretty much all the money they have on the offense goes through Jones.
Daboll is making a pretty big bet on Jones (though with an obvious silver lining if it doesn't work out).
https://overthecap.com/positional-spending/ - ( New Window )
If this was about winning with Jones, the option would have been picked up.
To this point, it appears that the family is backing off and letting Schoen run things. Again, the option was a crucial decision and many here (myself included) thought there was a decent chance it would be exercised.
What the hell are they really betting with Jones?
The same with Baltimore and Trent Dilfer, Tampa Bay and Brad Johnson, Philly and Nick Foles, etc
Just do what he has been doing...
But ultimately, the risk is after tilting the moderate resources they had to the offense, Jones treads water and that creates the illusion the needle is pointing up.
And I’m not sure where the confidence next offseason is guaranteed to produce this turnkey alternative this offseason didn’t avail.
There is nothing wrong with letting him compete.
But for a rebuilding team there is nothing wrong with new coaching to see what he can be with an eye on QB's for 2023.
And if they make it competitive, so what? If TT beats him out, so what? If TT replaces him, so what?
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The 2023 Draft and FA and Trade possibilities are all on the table. To think a team that is in major rebuild mode is going to be completely out of the picture in drafting a Qb when we have seen over the years that good QB's can be drafted even after the 6th pick is just burying your head in the sand.
But ultimately, the risk is after tilting the moderate resources they had to the offense, Jones treads water and that creates the illusion the needle is pointing up.
And I’m not sure where the confidence next offseason is guaranteed to produce this turnkey alternative this offseason didn’t avail.
The needle is pointing up comment on BBI probably needs to be retired at this point. I have heard it for the last decade on this site and it has never (repeat...never) been accurate. It is typically used by posters who want to display optimism but with just enough disclaimer that the horizon is still about 2 years away so they can't ever be wrong. This isn't a shot at you christian, just a side-bar pet peeve of mine :-)
There is no needle pointing up with this team right now. There is a ton of things still wrong with this roster and contracts/players that have to be replaced. And even if Jones (and Giants) have a better 2022, football logic suggests that he will not be the QB going forward. He won't meet the high threshold that is required for QBs today to get extended deals. I am not putting all my faith in Schoen/Daboll yet, but I just don't see two young professionals that are moronic enough to hitch their future a guy that tries hard but simply isn't good enough.
And yes, while I know the Giants have not been operating on football logic for some time, I like the dynamic of a new regime that has no ties to DJ. As well as an ownership/front office that should have recently hit rock-bottom based on their awful decision-making for the past decade and should be acting in near if not total deference on most topics.
bob quinn and matt patricia were a tandem in detroit but it didn't matter, passed on herbert and never got another pick.
david culley was nick caserio's guy and did an admirable job last year in non-ideal circumstances. congrats here are some steak knives and a fishing reel you're unemployed.
matt rhule has somehow hung on for his 3rd year after passing on chances to pick mac jones last year and move up a couple picks for herbert in 2020. Now his nfl career is the hands of ben mcadoo finding a way to win with matt corral or darnold. he's probably already booking some college visits with his dad this fall to figure out where he's going to matriculate next year.
Brian Daboll's friend Joe Judge thought he had a lot more time than he had. He probably went from texting Daboll in Nov/Dec to start recruiting him for his coordinator job to congratulating him for replacing him. that is the NFL and if a rookie head coach isn't aware of that they aren't going to be a head coach for long.
if they thought trubisky gave them a better chance than jones they would have signed him and traded jones. Case Keenum got traded, Jones could have too.
if they thought there was a rookie QB in this draft who would have given them a better chance, they would have taken that player, especially if they fell to round 3 which all the non-pickett QBs did.
none of those were great options but it doesn't change the fact that they are giving jones a season as their starter. if it doesn't go well i expect they will pivot on a dime to a rookie next year but by year 2 first time coaches are usually at the top of the vegas hot seat lists.
5-10 coaches get fired every black monday and usually the 14 coaches that make the playoffs are safe.
being the group that doesn't make the playoffs is a 50/50 proposition. being in it 2 years in a row is basically dead man walking (like rhule) or dead man dead (like judge).
Giants go 7-10 have the 20th ranked scoring offense and pick near the middle of the round. Jones has a 20 TD / 13 INT season with some decent rushing yards. Now you are JS and BD, what is the bigger risk? Some half measure with Jones where you sign him to something like 2 / 50 or taking the chance on some more overpaid FA QB if there is one? Can you even trade up to the top 5 to get a QB? Maybe the people up there just want the top QBs themselves. You are again, making a lot of assumptions. To me, you cut bait with your owners sacred cow and you are exposing yourself to MORE risk. Another owner that doesn't get quite so attached to players you might say no it's a bigger risk to roll with a QB I know maxes out at mediocre. But to your point they want to keep their jobs and a lot of the time keeping your job means more doing what makes your boss happy than doing the objectively right move.
You are acting like being an NFL GM is some world of isolation where all that matters is performance, interpersonal relations be damned! But the Giants we know fairly factually care about the interpersonal more than most organizations even should. Decisions aren't cut and dry right and wrong and there is a lot of murkiness to it. It will be decision time on Jones well before they have done all their draft research and even know if they can make a trade to get their guy. You are ignoring the same risk that christian also mentioned that was actually the driving force to what everyone ALREADY has argued with Jones when he's played like dogshit. What's the alternative?
So yeah, you are ignoring the data of this year for some pie in the sky idea of some pure meritocracy when there is plenty of data that isn't how the Giants operate. And just hopes and dreams that they don't
bob quinn and matt patricia were a tandem in detroit but it didn't matter, passed on herbert and never got another pick.
david culley was nick caserio's guy and did an admirable job last year in non-ideal circumstances. congrats here are some steak knives and a fishing reel you're unemployed.
matt rhule has somehow hung on for his 3rd year after passing on chances to pick mac jones last year and move up a couple picks for herbert in 2020. Now his nfl career is the hands of ben mcadoo finding a way to win with matt corral or darnold. he's probably already booking some college visits with his dad this fall to figure out where he's going to matriculate next year.
Brian Daboll's friend Joe Judge thought he had a lot more time than he had. He probably went from texting Daboll in Nov/Dec to start recruiting him for his coordinator job to congratulating him for replacing him. that is the NFL and if a rookie head coach isn't aware of that they aren't going to be a head coach for long.
if they thought trubisky gave them a better chance than jones they would have signed him and traded jones. Case Keenum got traded, Jones could have too.
if they thought there was a rookie QB in this draft who would have given them a better chance, they would have taken that player, especially if they fell to round 3 which all the non-pickett QBs did.
none of those were great options but it doesn't change the fact that they are giving jones a season as their starter. if it doesn't go well i expect they will pivot on a dime to a rookie next year but by year 2 first time coaches are usually at the top of the vegas hot seat lists.
5-10 coaches get fired every black monday and usually the 14 coaches that make the playoffs are safe.
being the group that doesn't make the playoffs is a 50/50 proposition. being in it 2 years in a row is basically dead man walking (like rhule) or dead man dead (like judge).
Exactly why I can't believe they're taking a chance on wasting a year on DG's mistake
Besides his talent issues, Jones is a major injury risk. I think he is out injured by October and makes Schoen’s decision for him.
I think Daboll is a pretty good offensive coach and could stretch Jones to his limit. And if Jones puts up 24/12, 3800 yard season and the Giants win 6 games, I’m afraid of what happens next.
but you can't pick and choose to insert politics in decisions you don't agree with regardless of the logic.
there is zero logic to any NFL coach or GM passing on what they believe to be an upgrade at QB at any time resources permitting - which this offseason did in both UFA and draft. they had the money for trubisky who they coached just last year and they passed on every QB in the draft 3-4x with the exception of Pickett who they passed on twice. those were conscious decisions that Schoen and Daboll had agency in and if they don't they are head coach and gm in name only.
you are inventing reasons as stupid as "the maras don't want a black qb" instead of taking in real data - like every other team passing on this year's rookies multiple times - which should plainly indicate that they just weren't good prospects.
Besides his talent issues, Jones is a major injury risk. I think he is out injured by October and makes Schoen’s decision for him.
I'm actually completely willing to acknowledge that he might be right. When in reality we'd all need to have intimate knowledge of what the Mara's, JS and BD are thinking to even take a decent stab at it. And we'd also have to assume that this season doesn't change anyone's thoughts or feelings. Another massive assumption. That's the only place where I think he's wrong. His level of confidence that he seemingly knows that just because a decision is made it's made without the influence of someone's boss just because the stakes are high.
My only point is that the influence could be heavy, it could be light. I don't think it's non-existent given Mara's public comments, that seems highly unlikely.
Giants go 7-10 have the 20th ranked scoring offense and pick near the middle of the round. Jones has a 20 TD / 13 INT season with some decent rushing yards. Now you are JS and BD, what is the bigger risk? Some half measure with Jones where you sign him to something like 2 / 50 or taking the chance on some more overpaid FA QB if there is one? Can you even trade up to the top 5 to get a QB? Maybe the people up there just want the top QBs themselves. You are again, making a lot of assumptions. To me, you cut bait with your owners sacred cow and you are exposing yourself to MORE risk. Another owner that doesn't get quite so attached to players you might say no it's a bigger risk to roll with a QB I know maxes out at mediocre. But to your point they want to keep their jobs and a lot of the time keeping your job means more doing what makes your boss happy than doing the objectively right move.
You are acting like being an NFL GM is some world of isolation where all that matters is performance, interpersonal relations be damned! But the Giants we know fairly factually care about the interpersonal more than most organizations even should. Decisions aren't cut and dry right and wrong and there is a lot of murkiness to it. It will be decision time on Jones well before they have done all their draft research and even know if they can make a trade to get their guy. You are ignoring the same risk that christian also mentioned that was actually the driving force to what everyone ALREADY has argued with Jones when he's played like dogshit. What's the alternative?
So yeah, you are ignoring the data of this year for some pie in the sky idea of some pure meritocracy when there is plenty of data that isn't how the Giants operate. And just hopes and dreams that they don't
If that is his production, he won't sniff anything near 2/50 on the open market. Mitch Trubisky's final year as a starter in Chicago he was 6-3 with a 16/8 TD/INT in 10 games (9 Starts) and got nothing in Free Agent market.
I'd venture the Mara's feelings likely explicitly or implicitly played into the valuation of these rookie QBs. They likely would have had to deal with political things with Mara pulling the trigger on it if they even could sell it to him. I'm talking about the possibility of this, you are saying no chance. So prove me wrong.
Shed Gettleman players, get a high draft pick, and start the clock for real with the QB draft pick in '23. I think that's the plan.