If WRs are now going to be paid like QBs, and above average QBs are going to get paid ever increasing sums of money, something has to give. The salary cap is not keeping pace. We are going to see situations where a few players making up 1/3 of a team's salary cap.
While the NFL has been trending in this direction for some time, the way WRs are now getting paid has accelerated the trend and teams are going to be put in more uncomfortable positions.
Possible outcomes?
- The bulk of rosters will now be inexperienced or relatively inexperienced young draft picks/undrafted free agents combined with marginal veterans on vet minimum deals. In these situations, teams with the best "superstar" players and who are well-coached will have the advantage (making the NFL more like the NBA in this regard).
- Certain positions will simply no longer be paid the big bucks. RB comes immediately to mind. But possibly so do DTs, interior linemen, inside linebackers, and non-elite defensive backs.
- Teams may now be more unwilling to re-sign 1st-round quarterbacks to mega-deals unless they are clearly difference makers. It may be better to pull the plug sooner (and dive into the draft again) and/or go with a cheaper average veteran.
- Personally, I think it will dawn on teams that spending $100 million contracts on WRs isn't a wise investment given that WRs in quality and quantity are coming out of college in ever increasing numbers (supply and demand).
Regardless, this trend does make me a bit sad. Team building as we know it is about to change forever. There will be no middle class in football. You will have a few players take up much of the cap space and the rest of the roster will suffer for it.
The teams that adjust to this new reality the best will be the ones winning Super Bowls.
Your post reminds me a little of what George Young said many years ago when free agency first became a reality.
In so many words, he worried about the average veteran players who will eventually get squeezed by the new free agency (and cap) system.
It seems to me you'd be better to spend FA money where college is falling short - to me that means offensive line and cornerback.
Exactly. From 7x7 leagues/camps to high school to college to the pros the passing game is prolific. Which is why the quality and quantity of WRs has never been greater. The pipeline is tremendous.
WR's I think will be situational based on the team.
Cliff Branch at Univ. of Colorado.
13 catches for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 9 carries for 235 yards and 4 touchdowns for a season. He set the NCAA record in track at the time.
Now you have all these great athletes all over the place with huge numbers showing how much things have changed.
Or maybe I'm full of shit and NFL will lose fans if passing D becomes a factor in games again.
Are the Rams smart? Bucs smart? they are the last two SB winners. The Rams signed Kupp to an extension. The Bucs just signed Godwin to an extension.
Are the Texans the smart ones for trading away Deandre Hopkins? Sure doesn't seem like it if you compare ARI and HOU since the trade was made.
seems like it's not a blanket broad brush situation.
it's always been true that a team needed a few great players in order to win
The Patriots made an art-form of having a whole lot of inexpensive team first players along with a few big stars, and jettisoning players instead of paying them big bucks
so I don't think the op is a new idea at all - and the fact is - that packing a team with a bunch of inexpensive depth is a solid way to go -- the real balance is what exactly do you send your money on
Also great coaching does give you an edge -- there's no doubt about that -- that is also something that has been proven over and over again
Winning it all has been in the hands of a few - not the many - there are a lot of teams in the NFL that are bottom feeders - a lot - a lot
but it's equally true that there is more than one way to skin a cat - and the NFL is no different -- and the Rams recently, and the Broncos when they had Peyton proved that as well -- it is possible to collect a lot of big names and win it --
in my opinion you cannot win it all without really good coaching. You also need: a really good defense; offensive weapons; and a better than average Qb.
It follows that you need some stars on defense, but you also need some stars on offense
Here's where I see a difference -- the coaches that can develop a mid to late rounder Cooper Kupp, George Kittle, or Wes Welker into a star
That's where the salary cap makes it interesting -- and I think it's a good theory. You do have to know how to allocate your resources and get the most out of it -- that's a real skill -- and it's why data analysis is going to become more and more important in the game of football
300 pounders on the planet.
Been to your local WalMart recently?
Every fast high profile player will want to be a WR instead of being a CB or S.
Same thing for defensive tackles and inside linebackers. Everyone will want to be an edge rusher
It’s pretty clear there are two schools of thought regarding wide receivers right now.
I actually think in a few years WR will drift more towards RB. The talent level coming out of college is going up and up, as is the quantity of kids who play the position.
15 years ago Shaun Alexander, Eddie George, Clinton Portis, Edgerin James, Adrian Peterson… they all got massive deals for the time. Now almost no RBs get big money.
While I do think we're already seeing WR start to drift with teams getting rid of vets and every draft now being strong at the position, it will never be as bad as RB because a good WR can play for a decade. A good RB is pretty much done after 3 years or so.
Mahomes, great quarterback. How did he play when his o line stunk?
Rodgers, another great QB. When was the last time he was in the Superbowl?
If you spend a ton of money on QB and receiver it is going to have a negative impact in other areas, o line, defense etc.
It's a balancing act. So if a team doesn't have a great quarterback will have to even things out by being superior in other areas. Pass rush, cornerbacks, running the football etc.
Most teams are not going to have great quarterbacks, there just are not enough to go around.
In basketball 5 players are on the court at one time. In football it's 11 and really 22. It only takes 2 superstars in basketball to get a championship not so football.
Stop committing so much money to QBs because it just keeps you from paying for other needed talent. Paying that much money to WRs will only make things worse.
https://www.spotrac.com/spots/super-bowl-qb-cap-percentages-1397/ - ( New Window )
The number two way to win is get a top QB and go all in on short term run —Bucs, Rams.
The number 3 way is to win with an elite QB while he remains on his rookie deal.
Those are the most proven ways.
Theoretically a team who has a clear idea of value and sticks to it no matter how good the player should have competitive advantage. The Pats certainly think that way but attributing their success to that is clouded by Brady playing below market dollar so is hard to identify.
This is the sort of analysis that analytics is very good at.
Good drafting and cap managet.
Analytics will show that interior line
play is more important than wide outs.
As George Young said there are not that many
300 pounders on the planet.
Yup. The GM is more important than the players. This is what the players association wanted. They got it.
5 players making up half the cap. I’m sure this brings a locker room together lol.
Non pass-rushing linebackers are going to play cheap . So are most safeties , tight ends and guards . And if you take an RB in the first round , you should be sent far , far away .
The money will be weighted toward QB, WR , OT. EDGE & CB . Fortunately Schoen has already said he embraces such considerations .
As for the rueful allusion to George Young II above : too fucking bad . No consideration for the middle classes . This is the business you chose . Some will prosper . Some will average 5 wins a season . Who do you want to be ?
The number two way to win is get a top QB and go all in on short term run —Bucs, Rams.
The number 3 way is to win with an elite QB while he remains on his rookie deal.
Those are the most proven ways.
Theoretically a team who has a clear idea of value and sticks to it no matter how good the player should have competitive advantage. The Pats certainly think that way but attributing their success to that is clouded by Brady playing below market dollar so is hard to identify.
This is the sort of analysis that analytics is very good at.
You're not wrong ....
From the link I posted a couple posts before. Of the QBs that have won the SB in the last 10 years;
Tom Brady took the highest percentage of the cap at 12.61% (2020)
2nd: Tom Brady again at 12.42% (2018)
3rd: P. Manning 12.21% (2015)
4th: E. Manning 11.71% (2011)
Going back 20 years naming some well known QBs;
When A. Rogers won (4.3%)
Drew Brees (8.41%)
Ben Roethlisberger (7.11% & 4.94%)
Tom Brady in 2001, 2003, & 2004 (0.46%, 4.42%, & 6.28%)
Russell Wilson (0.55%)
Patrick Mahomes (2.38%)
Nick Foles (0.96%)
Joe Flacco (6.63%)
Meanwhile for 2022 and I wonder which team has the best shot this coming season;
Aaron Rogers (13.2%)
Deshawn Watson (4.6%) but 2023 (24.4%)
Patrick Mahommes (17.1%)
Matt Stafford (6.7%)
Joe Burrow (4.7%)
Josh Allen (7.8%)
Russell Wilson (10.9%)
Dak Prescott (9.0%) but 2023 (21.8%)
Tom Brady (5.8%)
Daniel Jones (4.0%)
Tyrod Taylor (1.3%) because why not
Justin Herbert (3.4%)
It’s pretty clear there are two schools of thought regarding wide receivers right now.
I actually think in a few years WR will drift more towards RB. The talent level coming out of college is going up and up, as is the quantity of kids who play the position.
15 years ago Shaun Alexander, Eddie George, Clinton Portis, Edgerin James, Adrian Peterson… they all got massive deals for the time. Now almost no RBs get big money.
I agree w this. WRs are easily replaceable. Obviously there will always be some guys they are the best of the best, but the next WR to be the reason his team wins a Super Bowl would be the first.
Also a QB correction will have to occur at some point Over paying mid level mediocre QBs has to stop. If I'm an owner I'm not pissing away 120 million on a Kirk Cousins type and if he says it's needed replace him.
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That acquires a premium WR and pays them $100M dollars, there are the Tennessee and Green Bay’s who would rather carry young players versus vets.
It’s pretty clear there are two schools of thought regarding wide receivers right now.
I actually think in a few years WR will drift more towards RB. The talent level coming out of college is going up and up, as is the quantity of kids who play the position.
15 years ago Shaun Alexander, Eddie George, Clinton Portis, Edgerin James, Adrian Peterson… they all got massive deals for the time. Now almost no RBs get big money.
I agree w this. WRs are easily replaceable. Obviously there will always be some guys they are the best of the best, but the next WR to be the reason his team wins a Super Bowl would be the first.
Also a QB correction will have to occur at some point Over paying mid level mediocre QBs has to stop. If I'm an owner I'm not pissing away 120 million on a Kirk Cousins type and if he says it's needed replace him.
I don't disagree, but I remember hearing an old adage about baseball owners - all it takes is one owner to make a bad mistake that affects the market for years.
Sure, you won't pay Kirk Cousins. But will one of the other 31 owners? Probably.
I don't think that will sit well for most players who get paid much less, get hit much more, and have short careers like running backs.
If you think about positions that take a beating and have short careers should actually be paid more not less.
I could see the players insisting on a salary cap for quarterbacks and maybe receivers.
It reminds me of the Giants fans reliving the 2020 Seattle or 2021 NO game.
Yes, KC's OL failed. But in the Super Bowl. Most teams can't even sniff that kind of success.
GMs will figure out what style of QB suits their vision/scheme and roll them over every 4 years, probably avoiding the 5th year option. NFL will be just like college football with turnover in the 3 to 4 year range.
Even with a massive Cap increase, agents and owners will spend freely and eat up that extra money.
Unless there is a cap per position, these fools will keep spending. There is no way a cap per position will be allowed by the NFLPA.
100pct agreement, renewed emphasis on having a consistent strong OL thus making any QB or RB better and developing mid(3-4th) round QBs will become more common than it has been recently, the owners should smarten up an expand the roster by 2-3 players to develop mid/late round talent on reasonable contracts
When drafting, put more emphasis on production than potential since it might take a few years for that potential to be realized and then the player becomes very expensive.
And yet, the team that is currently getting sized for rings took exactly the opposite approach. The only bona fide star on their roster that they drafted is Aaron Donald. But they did realize that trading picks for veterans is ultimately cheaper than signing free agents with warts, because the trades require the original team to absorb money in the process.
Drafting well will take on increased importance in a studs-and-duds roster construction scheme, but the Rams already demonstrated one of the ways to lean into a market inefficiency (i.e., trades/cap flexibility/dead money).
the LAR more than anything else show how vital good coaching is in terms of elevated all results. wins, day 3 picks, trades, inherited players from previous regimes, castoffs from other regimes, etc.
NFL talent acquisition needs an 'all of the above' approach.
Good drafting and cap managet.
Analytics will show that interior line
play is more important than wide outs.
As George Young said there are not that many
300 pounders on the planet.
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.
Find the inefficiency in the market
the LAR more than anything else show how vital good coaching is in terms of elevated all results. wins, day 3 picks, trades, inherited players from previous regimes, castoffs from other regimes, etc.
NFL talent acquisition needs an 'all of the above' approach.
True, and ignoring Kupp and Rapp (and anyone else on their roster whose name ends in double-p) was a total brain fart on my end.
But their trade activity does still illustrate one of the first indications that teams are beginning to identify some cap management inefficiencies that can be taken advantage of simply by way of willingness.
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they have acquired their stars through trades, yes, but they have a cheap talent base thanks to hitting on several non-top 50 draft picks and then a continuous cycle of adding more picks via comp picks when a lot of those players leave. And donald/kupp/rapp aren't nothing.
the LAR more than anything else show how vital good coaching is in terms of elevated all results. wins, day 3 picks, trades, inherited players from previous regimes, castoffs from other regimes, etc.
NFL talent acquisition needs an 'all of the above' approach.
True, and ignoring Kupp and Rapp (and anyone else on their roster whose name ends in double-p) was a total brain fart on my end.
But their trade activity does still illustrate one of the first indications that teams are beginning to identify some cap management inefficiencies that can be taken advantage of simply by way of willingness.
to me the biggest inefficiency they take advantage of is having an elite coach. Sean McVay has never made a 1st round pick. Think about that. And yet he has still won as big as any coach in their first job. And up until the last year he did that with Jared Goff as his QB - who he turned around from a punchline, to a pro bowler, and then flipped with a draft pick for Stafford after he started trending back towards punchline again.
name the best coaches over the past decade and those are basically your best franchises, and all of their rosters have been built in different ways. Belichek, Payton, Reid, McVay, Tomlin, Carroll, Harbough etc.
In a league of ever increasing QB and WR contracts, they not only traded away their best WR in Marquise Brown, but they also did not draft a WR in this year's draft. Moreover, their best offensive weapon the last couple of years is TE Mark Andrews. They drafted 2 more TEs in the 4th round this year in Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely. I'm convinced that we will see an unusually high amount of multiple TE sets from them this year on offense. They will go read-option early and often and let Lamar and the committee of RBs do most of the work when they have the ball.
On top of that, I think they shown that Lamar Jackson is somewhat replaceable. As what happened when Huntley took over for a bit last season and RG3 the season before, they field QBs that fit their system and run it no matter how much they make. I don't think Lamar will get a huge Mahomes-like contract. Instead, they will leverage their interchangeability to keep the contract $$'s down.
The Ravens have often been praised for their smart moves and ability to remain competitive year in and year out. Buck the trend and find another way. Btw, this is not unlike when teams started to transition away from 4-3 defenses when DEs started getting paid huge contracts years ago. They went more towards finding cheap tweener LBer hybrids that could rush the passer in situational downs.
I wouldn't pay WRs, RBs, DT/NTs, ILBs, OGs unless they were exceptional. The delta from a 2nd contract to a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick is so great it's worth the risk.
I'd be paying in this order
1. QB
2. & 2A OT/DE/Edge
3. CB
Whatever is left over I'd spread around the rest of the roster based on the talent level at each position. But I wouldn't be paying slightly above average players at non premium positions 2nd contracts unless they were on my terms.
I am not quite there yet on corners, but I agree that WRs are getting commoditized. They are not nearly as fungible a RBs - yet - but the pipeline is very, very good every year from the college ranks in terms of quality and quantity. And there are usually a few good buys available every year in the FA market.
Tyreek Hill is a great, great player. But with Mahomes's contract and his skill, you have to trust that Mahomes can live without Hill and help develop the talent Reid and Veach will find. That's what a real franchise QB is expected to do...
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Are quickly becoming as commoditized as the RB position. Giving either big money is a mistake.
I am not quite there yet on corners, but I agree that WRs are getting commoditized. They are not nearly as fungible a RBs - yet - but the pipeline is very, very good every year from the college ranks in terms of quality and quantity. And there are usually a few good buys available every year in the FA market.
Tyreek Hill is a great, great player. But with Mahomes's contract and his skill, you have to trust that Mahomes can live without Hill and help develop the talent Reid and Veach will find. That's what a real franchise QB is expected to do...
CBs aren’t a prerequisite to a championship caliber team, go back year by year and look at the teams in the mix. A pass rush is a prerequisite. A QB is a prerequisite. A decent OL is a prerequisite. That’s where the money and resources should go.
I am not quite there yet on corners, but I agree that WRs are getting commoditized. They are not nearly as fungible a RBs - yet - but the pipeline is very, very good every year from the college ranks in terms of quality and quantity. And there are usually a few good buys available every year in the FA market.
Tyreek Hill is a great, great player. But with Mahomes's contract and his skill, you have to trust that Mahomes can live without Hill and help develop the talent Reid and Veach will find. That's what a real franchise QB is expected to do...
CBs aren’t a prerequisite to a championship caliber team, go back year by year and look at the teams in the mix. A pass rush is a prerequisite. A QB is a prerequisite. A decent OL is a prerequisite. That’s where the money and resources should go.
There are some big-name corners over the last decade on championship teams...
2021 Rams - Jalen Ramsey
2018 Pats - Stephon Gilmore
2015 Broncos - Aqib Talib
2014 Pats - Darrelle Revis
2013 Seahawks - Richard Sherman
If you can make it work cap wise, having a high-end corner does have value and can be integral to a championship team.
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In comment 15702077 Ben in Tampa said:
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That acquires a premium WR and pays them $100M dollars, there are the Tennessee and Green Bay’s who would rather carry young players versus vets.
It’s pretty clear there are two schools of thought regarding wide receivers right now.
I actually think in a few years WR will drift more towards RB. The talent level coming out of college is going up and up, as is the quantity of kids who play the position.
15 years ago Shaun Alexander, Eddie George, Clinton Portis, Edgerin James, Adrian Peterson… they all got massive deals for the time. Now almost no RBs get big money.
I agree w this. WRs are easily replaceable. Obviously there will always be some guys they are the best of the best, but the next WR to be the reason his team wins a Super Bowl would be the first.
Also a QB correction will have to occur at some point Over paying mid level mediocre QBs has to stop. If I'm an owner I'm not pissing away 120 million on a Kirk Cousins type and if he says it's needed replace him.
I don't disagree, but I remember hearing an old adage about baseball owners - all it takes is one owner to make a bad mistake that affects the market for years.
Sure, you won't pay Kirk Cousins. But will one of the other 31 owners? Probably.
There's always a dumb owner or two but I think there's a breaking point. I'm interested in seeing whst happens w Kyler Murray. Kid has had been given plenty of tools to work w. A coach who is designing the offense for him. Does AZ give him 40 million? I still think Dallas was nice going all in on Dak. Not because he's not a good Qb but that they paid him like he's Brady or Rodgers.
We will see.
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In comment 15703614 bw in dc said:
I am not quite there yet on corners, but I agree that WRs are getting commoditized. They are not nearly as fungible a RBs - yet - but the pipeline is very, very good every year from the college ranks in terms of quality and quantity. And there are usually a few good buys available every year in the FA market.
Tyreek Hill is a great, great player. But with Mahomes's contract and his skill, you have to trust that Mahomes can live without Hill and help develop the talent Reid and Veach will find. That's what a real franchise QB is expected to do...
CBs aren’t a prerequisite to a championship caliber team, go back year by year and look at the teams in the mix. A pass rush is a prerequisite. A QB is a prerequisite. A decent OL is a prerequisite. That’s where the money and resources should go.
There are some big-name corners over the last decade on championship teams...
2021 Rams - Jalen Ramsey
2018 Pats - Stephon Gilmore
2015 Broncos - Aqib Talib
2014 Pats - Darrelle Revis
2013 Seahawks - Richard Sherman
If you can make it work cap wise, having a high-end corner does have value and can be integral to a championship team.
And then you have teams like the eagles and Bucs who had absolute trash in the entire secondary and won championships.
Using finite resources on a corner is bad business when you can have sustained success without it.
I've seen this mentioned before but, where do you think the baseline for those terms came from? Look no further than the contract Kenny Golladay received one year earlier. We're just as much to blame.
On offense you need the tough, can take hits and forget it fearless QB. Eli and Brady are prime examples. Burrows looks like he has "it". And what is Stafford's greatest attribute? Not some whiz bang 'modern' ESPN/bbi throwing ability, but its his toughness.