If WRs are now going to be paid like QBs, and above average QBs are going to get paid ever increasing sums of money, something has to give. The salary cap is not keeping pace. We are going to see situations where a few players making up 1/3 of a team's salary cap.
While the NFL has been trending in this direction for some time, the way WRs are now getting paid has accelerated the trend and teams are going to be put in more uncomfortable positions.
Possible outcomes?
- The bulk of rosters will now be inexperienced or relatively inexperienced young draft picks/undrafted free agents combined with marginal veterans on vet minimum deals. In these situations, teams with the best "superstar" players and who are well-coached will have the advantage (making the NFL more like the NBA in this regard).
- Certain positions will simply no longer be paid the big bucks. RB comes immediately to mind. But possibly so do DTs, interior linemen, inside linebackers, and non-elite defensive backs.
- Teams may now be more unwilling to re-sign 1st-round quarterbacks to mega-deals unless they are clearly difference makers. It may be better to pull the plug sooner (and dive into the draft again) and/or go with a cheaper average veteran.
- Personally, I think it will dawn on teams that spending $100 million contracts on WRs isn't a wise investment given that WRs in quality and quantity are coming out of college in ever increasing numbers (supply and demand).
Regardless, this trend does make me a bit sad. Team building as we know it is about to change forever. There will be no middle class in football. You will have a few players take up much of the cap space and the rest of the roster will suffer for it.
The teams that adjust to this new reality the best will be the ones winning Super Bowls.
Smart teams will buy IOL, safeties, LB, tight ends etc. while they will draft QBs, WR, CB and edge.
I’m guessing the latter won’t happen.
Multiple Corners...multiple edges...multiple OTs.
You are being kind....QBs, unless they are top 3....shouldn't get 2nd contracts especially at current going rate, of 40 million...simply not worth it.
The dilemma of Daniel Jones.
The repeated great drafts and coaching are the key to any success
One of the trends that I think gets us in the situation is the tendency for each solid starter, when they get a new contract, to be the highest paid player in the NFL at their position. I realize that salaries go up and there’s always going to be upward pressure, but Nate solder never deserved to be the top paid left tackle in the league. You either get to be the highest played player in the league at your position, or the vet minimum. The first one relegates more people to the second one.
I also think the Deshaun Watson and Tyreek Hill contracts show why this is so. As long as one team in the league can elevate the new standard of contracts to an absurd level, there is this pressure for everyone to follow.
I respect the open market but it can generate these dynamics. Maybe some team will succeed by saying no?
One exception is WR. Most drafts are loaded at WR, so it usually makes little sense to give a mega deal to a player at this position. The deal Kirk got from Jacksonville was ridiculous. GB smartly traded arguably the best WR in football in Adams to avoid paying him, and did so despite having just resigned Rodgers to a massive extension.
QB is another possible exception. Teams will still pay to try and get or retain a championship level QB, as GB did with Rodgers, and the Rams and Browns did with Stafford and Watson. But they will also be more likely to give up on a QBs, as the Browns and Eagles did with Mayfield and Wentz, and the Giants will likely do with Jones.
That said, I think we will see a situation where getting good players who contribute right away on rookie deals will really be emphasized. This devalues "projects" unless they can be kept on practice squad. Everyone wants those kind of players anyway, but it could impact drafting strategy whereby a player from a big school with just OK talent could be more valued than an athletic small-school player who will take time to develop
Good drafting and cap managet.
Analytics will show that interior line
play is more important than wide outs.
As George Young said there are not that many
300 pounders on the planet.
It’s pretty clear there are two schools of thought regarding wide receivers right now.
I actually think in a few years WR will drift more towards RB. The talent level coming out of college is going up and up, as is the quantity of kids who play the position.
15 years ago Shaun Alexander, Eddie George, Clinton Portis, Edgerin James, Adrian Peterson… they all got massive deals for the time. Now almost no RBs get big money.
Indy never gets involved in Free Agency and avoids bidding wars on players keeping there cap number down and keep your guys you have drafted that you like.
The giants have not drafted well and have not protected the QB for a decade and we have seen the results. Even a hall of fame QB like Eli was given the door and took the blame of bad drafting by Reese as did Coughlin. Draft well and keep the players you want to keep.
$60 T-shirt
$50 Hat
$40 Beer
$20 Hot Dog
$15 bottle of water
Fans will chip in and help raise the cap for the NFL!
Oh yeah, Chips - $15
GMs will figure out what style of QB suits their vision/scheme and roll them over every 4 years, probably avoiding the 5th year option. NFL will be just like college football with turnover in the 3 to 4 year range.
Even with a massive Cap increase, agents and owners will spend freely and eat up that extra money.
Unless there is a cap per position, these fools will keep spending. There is no way a cap per position will be allowed by the NFLPA.
The solution may be an approach similar to the NBA.
Find the inefficiency in the market
Find the inefficiency in the market
Unless you are an elite QB who is willing to take less or has another revenue stream, like Brady. The high salaried players are going to have to start cutting back in order to keep teammates around. Will they do it? Some will; some won’t.
Quote:
Will take advantage of this
Find the inefficiency in the market
Exactly. When there is an imbalance it means other areas become undervalued and can be taken advantage of if you are willing to construct your team differently. The Pats know this.
The Pats were paying Brady in a unique manner- via his TB12 company. That's how they got around the elite QB salary. Without Brady, well...
GMs will figure out what style of QB suits their vision/scheme and roll them over every 4 years, probably avoiding the 5th year option. NFL will be just like college football with turnover in the 3 to 4 year range.
Even with a massive Cap increase, agents and owners will spend freely and eat up that extra money.
Unless there is a cap per position, these fools will keep spending. There is no way a cap per position will be allowed by the NFLPA.
This is what I've wondered... will NFL teams become more like college teams with 4-year windows.
Quote:
Value is not simply a measure for how good a player is but how good a player is relative to the cost. A less talented QB can be more beneficial than an Elite QB if he is on a more sensible contract which allows the team to become stronger in other areas. IMO, this is why the elite QBs are pretty much good for 1 SB and not more. The impact of the massive contracts and how it impedes the team around them is felt most significantly in the playoffs where it becomes harder for single player to carry his team.
Unless you are an elite QB who is willing to take less or has another revenue stream, like Brady. The high salaried players are going to have to start cutting back in order to keep teammates around. Will they do it? Some will; some won’t.
Quote:
will WRs. Linemen may become the place to put moderate money.
GMs will figure out what style of QB suits their vision/scheme and roll them over every 4 years, probably avoiding the 5th year option. NFL will be just like college football with turnover in the 3 to 4 year range.
Even with a massive Cap increase, agents and owners will spend freely and eat up that extra money.
Unless there is a cap per position, these fools will keep spending. There is no way a cap per position will be allowed by the NFLPA.
This is what I've wondered... will NFL teams become more like college teams with 4-year windows.
I am sure that the guys like Mahomes, Herbert, Rodgers will continue to get paid extremely well. But the mediocre/average QBs will not get those mega contracts that have been given out.
Unfortunately...... that's all he knew.
Furthermore, when the rest of the team suffers (monetarily) because the QB and one WR take such a large chunk of the team's available money - there will be bitterness, loss of chemistry, and good to great players leaving via FA to make a decent buck with some other team that doesn't give the team's largesse to two players.
You can bank a lot of extra cap room through NLTBE’s and paying a QB a big chunk of your cap when you don’t have the rest of the team around them to contend is a tough proposition and we will see teams do it less and less IMO. But this off-season I think was a big signal of the change.
Arguably just happened with the Rams and Cooper Kupp. You can get into semantics about is Kupp better than Hill or Diggs or whoever, but he is definitely in the conversation.
the key though? Kupp's 2021 cap hit was $5.3M. This changes in 2022, but they have a unique deal with Stafford for the next couple years then they will be a great case study in cap management because his 2024 cap hit is $49.5M and he's uncuttable and then 2025 it's $50M. I think basically the Rams will have to extend a 38 year old Stafford to lessen his $50M cap hit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 - this is the definition of kicking the can down the road, who knows it may work out - they already won one trophy.
When drafting, put more emphasis on production than potential since it might take a few years for that potential to be realized and then the player becomes very expensive.
Right now the game is not balanced and as a result QB's, WR's, and CB's are overpaid to try and bridge that gap. Go back to a few simple old rules and it will correct itself.
1) Go back to the old hash marks
2) Go back to allowing contact anywhere on the field prior to the ball being in the air
3) Go back to the clock remaining stopped when running out of bounds.
This would result in the running game once again being featured a lot more with many coaches going back to grind it out ball control style of offense which balance out the salaries of the skill positions which are over emphasized today in order to compete with the current rules.
`A small darting type of WR would have a lot more trouble getting open and we would see a lot more size and strength at the position in order to fight through contact. The result less prima donna type at wide receiver. As a result of more teams running the ball passing stats would comedown and would result in less money to go to a QB's.
The league won't do it and most fans wouldn't want it because the league shifted themselves to a wide open higher scoring game in order to attract many of today's fans. So it won't happen, but it would certainly bring more balance back to the sport.
Your post reminds me a little of what George Young said many years ago when free agency first became a reality.
In so many words, he worried about the average veteran players who will eventually get squeezed by the new free agency (and cap) system.
It seems to me you'd be better to spend FA money where college is falling short - to me that means offensive line and cornerback.
Exactly. From 7x7 leagues/camps to high school to college to the pros the passing game is prolific. Which is why the quality and quantity of WRs has never been greater. The pipeline is tremendous.
WR's I think will be situational based on the team.
Cliff Branch at Univ. of Colorado.
13 catches for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 9 carries for 235 yards and 4 touchdowns for a season. He set the NCAA record in track at the time.
Now you have all these great athletes all over the place with huge numbers showing how much things have changed.
Or maybe I'm full of shit and NFL will lose fans if passing D becomes a factor in games again.
Are the Rams smart? Bucs smart? they are the last two SB winners. The Rams signed Kupp to an extension. The Bucs just signed Godwin to an extension.
Are the Texans the smart ones for trading away Deandre Hopkins? Sure doesn't seem like it if you compare ARI and HOU since the trade was made.
seems like it's not a blanket broad brush situation.
it's always been true that a team needed a few great players in order to win
The Patriots made an art-form of having a whole lot of inexpensive team first players along with a few big stars, and jettisoning players instead of paying them big bucks
so I don't think the op is a new idea at all - and the fact is - that packing a team with a bunch of inexpensive depth is a solid way to go -- the real balance is what exactly do you send your money on
Also great coaching does give you an edge -- there's no doubt about that -- that is also something that has been proven over and over again
Winning it all has been in the hands of a few - not the many - there are a lot of teams in the NFL that are bottom feeders - a lot - a lot
but it's equally true that there is more than one way to skin a cat - and the NFL is no different -- and the Rams recently, and the Broncos when they had Peyton proved that as well -- it is possible to collect a lot of big names and win it --
in my opinion you cannot win it all without really good coaching. You also need: a really good defense; offensive weapons; and a better than average Qb.
It follows that you need some stars on defense, but you also need some stars on offense
Here's where I see a difference -- the coaches that can develop a mid to late rounder Cooper Kupp, George Kittle, or Wes Welker into a star
That's where the salary cap makes it interesting -- and I think it's a good theory. You do have to know how to allocate your resources and get the most out of it -- that's a real skill -- and it's why data analysis is going to become more and more important in the game of football
300 pounders on the planet.
Been to your local WalMart recently?
Every fast high profile player will want to be a WR instead of being a CB or S.
Same thing for defensive tackles and inside linebackers. Everyone will want to be an edge rusher
It’s pretty clear there are two schools of thought regarding wide receivers right now.
I actually think in a few years WR will drift more towards RB. The talent level coming out of college is going up and up, as is the quantity of kids who play the position.
15 years ago Shaun Alexander, Eddie George, Clinton Portis, Edgerin James, Adrian Peterson… they all got massive deals for the time. Now almost no RBs get big money.
While I do think we're already seeing WR start to drift with teams getting rid of vets and every draft now being strong at the position, it will never be as bad as RB because a good WR can play for a decade. A good RB is pretty much done after 3 years or so.
Mahomes, great quarterback. How did he play when his o line stunk?
Rodgers, another great QB. When was the last time he was in the Superbowl?
If you spend a ton of money on QB and receiver it is going to have a negative impact in other areas, o line, defense etc.
It's a balancing act. So if a team doesn't have a great quarterback will have to even things out by being superior in other areas. Pass rush, cornerbacks, running the football etc.
Most teams are not going to have great quarterbacks, there just are not enough to go around.
In basketball 5 players are on the court at one time. In football it's 11 and really 22. It only takes 2 superstars in basketball to get a championship not so football.