I think we're about to see a type of offensive system that is at the cutting edge of the NFL.
Whether the QB can handle it is a different subject, but the mix of what Daboll did in Buffalo, Kafka's experience in KC, and the skill set of newly acquired Robinson to go along with Toney, I just get the sense we're going into unchartered for Giants fans.
I also think we're going to see Saquon's pass receptions #s to approach his rookie season numbers (if he stays healthy and/or doesn't get traded in season).
A lot more in the article but either way it's at least understandable why schoen would roll the dice on 2 key of the brains behind those offenses leading this one forward (wherever that goes).
How the Bills and Chiefs Found Their Form—and Set Up the Best Divisional-Round Matchup - ( New Window )
We're certainly going to stress linebackers and safeties a ton with Barkley, Robinson, and Toney.
I also think Jones will be able to get a better read on opposing defenses as we will motion a ton. When you motion your receivers, it helps the QB tell what kind of coverage the defense is employing.
The Giants were archaic with their lack of motion the last couple of seasons.
2018: 499/468, 51.6% pass - 16.8 PPG, Buffalo went 6-10 *Josh Allen's rookie season
2019: 513/465, 52.5% pass - 19.6 PPG, 10-6
2020: 596/411, 59.2% pass - 31.3 PPG, 13-3 *Stefon Diggs's first year
2021: 655/461, 58.7% pass - 28.4 PPG, 11-6
I expect 2022 to look like Buffalo's 2018. I think as Schoen turns the roster over and finds his QB and stud WR we may see them ramp up the passing to around the 60% number. Passing is what wins games.
2018: 499/468, 51.6% pass - 16.8 PPG, Buffalo went 6-10 *Josh Allen's rookie season
2019: 513/465, 52.5% pass - 19.6 PPG, 10-6
2020: 596/411, 59.2% pass - 31.3 PPG, 13-3 *Stefon Diggs's first year
2021: 655/461, 58.7% pass - 28.4 PPG, 11-6
I expect 2022 to look like Buffalo's 2018. I think as Schoen turns the roster over and finds his QB and stud WR we may see them ramp up the passing to around the 60% number. Passing is what wins games.
I'm not sure Daboll at the WRs to spread the Bills offense in his first couple of years. He may be able to do that sooner now. I really think that's why they "forced" the Robinson pick.
That's when we'll get a good feel for what's possible in the new game plan.
I agree with you that spreading the field in a pass heavy offense is where we're going, but I don't think we have the pieces. I think the offensive personnel is going to be hugely different in 2023 (no Jones, Barkley, Golladay, and maybe Toney), and then we'll start to see the influx of people to make this style of offense work.
I do expect to see Jones on several designed runs per game, but they will not run him into the ground. Hopefully they are working with him on protecting himself when he runs instead of the hero ball, 'run through the guy's chest with your head' stuff we have seen from him far too often.
Good point.
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Here are the Bills' pass/run ratios starting when Daboll took over as the OC in 2018:
2018: 499/468, 51.6% pass - 16.8 PPG, Buffalo went 6-10 *Josh Allen's rookie season
2019: 513/465, 52.5% pass - 19.6 PPG, 10-6
2020: 596/411, 59.2% pass - 31.3 PPG, 13-3 *Stefon Diggs's first year
2021: 655/461, 58.7% pass - 28.4 PPG, 11-6
I expect 2022 to look like Buffalo's 2018. I think as Schoen turns the roster over and finds his QB and stud WR we may see them ramp up the passing to around the 60% number. Passing is what wins games.
I'm not sure Daboll at the WRs to spread the Bills offense in his first couple of years. He may be able to do that sooner now. I really think that's why they "forced" the Robinson pick.
So is it possible Schoen and Daboll will let the Golladay contract play out since he doesn't appear to be a fit in the system? It's telling that they didn't get someone to replace him or as a good backup given his injury history (unless you want to rely on David Sills).
i expect he will almost function like Dawson Knox or Kelce in terms of how they use him as a receiver.
I agree with you that spreading the field in a pass heavy offense is where we're going, but I don't think we have the pieces. I think the offensive personnel is going to be hugely different in 2023 (no Jones, Barkley, Golladay, and maybe Toney), and then we'll start to see the influx of people to make this style of offense work.
I'm dying to know what Daboll/Kafka think about Golladay and how they plan to use him.
I can't imagine they want that contract on the books longer than needed.
Long-term roster building, I think the Giants ideally still want a QB1 (assuming Jones isn't the guy), WR1, and CB1.
I agree with you that spreading the field in a pass heavy offense is where we're going, but I don't think we have the pieces. I think the offensive personnel is going to be hugely different in 2023 (no Jones, Barkley, Golladay, and maybe Toney), and then we'll start to see the influx of people to make this style of offense work.
Not expecting a training wheels approach in 2022. The time for that has come and passed for Jones. Open up the playbook and whatever happens, you won't have any more questions at the end of the year.
2018 Buffalo they were working with a QB from Wyoming who through 56%. It was smart to be patient in that circumstance. Plus how much of that is McDermott dictating the gameplan?
Kadarius Toney and Wan'Dale Robinson set to explode under the Giants Kafka/Daboll system - ( New Window )
Kadarius Toney and Wan'Dale Robinson set to explode under the Giants Kafka/Daboll system - ( New Window )
Name another team that took a knee inside their own 5 yard line once last year; the Giants did it twice on consecutive plays. That’s cutting edge!
🤦♂️
I think those two do a good job. I've been watching them the past couple of weeks.
I also like listening to Nick Falato...that guy knows his stuff.
Judge and Garrett had more last year with Jones playing and Garrett's scheme was abysmal.
Definitely see a more balanced approach but it's going to a far more expensive (per play call, that is) than we've seen here in quite some time.
If Golladay, Toney and Robinson are healthy, these dudes will wreck.
they went from a 2015 offense with Shurmur to a 1999 offense with Garrett.
Judge and Garrett had more last year with Jones playing and Garrett's scheme was abysmal.
Definitely see a more balanced approach but it's going to a far more expensive (per play call, that is) than we've seen here in quite some time.
Plus the offensive line will allow them to do more. Solder was a turnstile out there. Solder, Price, and Skura are still unemployed. Hernandez was allowed to walk. RT and RG will be vastly improved. I think Feliciano is being underrated around here... and he knows Daboll's system so their will be no huge learning curve for him (which also helps out Jones with protection calls).
Go Terps, for now let's assume Jones is the QB (this year for sure) and say Eric is still right about what they will want to do with the system.
Toney will basically be the Davis/Hardman guy (Bills/Chiefs), Golladay will be the experienced WR the Sanders/Gordon guy (Bills/Chiefs). Robinson will be the Beasley guy (Chiefs didn't have another guy specifcially that fits this role) and what we are missing is our Diggs/Hill guy.
Barkley will be more the receiving threat than tyhe rushing threat in this new offense and could be the #1 weapon ala Hill/Diggs but coming out of the backfield or lining up wide.
What we become is VARIED, something we have not been in a LONG time.
Lots of ways to score points and best to have balance and be successful both ways based on the matchup and scheme however the percentages fall.
No doubt BD wants to spread it and air it especially with a elite QB and some outstanding weapons. Still it was not being able to run between the tackles that sent him home in Jan.
Go Terps, for now let's assume Jones is the QB (this year for sure) and say Eric is still right about what they will want to do with the system.
Toney will basically be the Davis/Hardman guy (Bills/Chiefs), Golladay will be the experienced WR the Sanders/Gordon guy (Bills/Chiefs). Robinson will be the Beasley guy (Chiefs didn't have another guy specifcially that fits this role) and what we are missing is our Diggs/Hill guy.
Barkley will be more the receiving threat than tyhe rushing threat in this new offense and could be the #1 weapon ala Hill/Diggs but coming out of the backfield or lining up wide.
What we become is VARIED, something we have not been in a LONG time.
I am not saying it will be a success but, you can see what it will resemble schematically. I think the Oline is a HUGE boost to anything we do and if Jones cna be more efficient with his runs- run less times by design and get more yards when the situation is presented that will open things up even more. Barkley catching the ball will be a big help and keep teams honest as well as reverses to Toney, Robinson and maybe Slayton (though I think he is shown the door soon).
Josh Allen was 8th in the NFL in intended air yards, which is a good measure of how deep the system wants targets to be. By contrast Mahomes was 25th.
Allen averaged 6.5 air yards per completion, Mahomes averaged 4.9.
I think Jones is much more of a poor man's Allen than Mahomes, and I think the offense will resemble the Bills more than the Chiefs.
I'll puke if Barkley gets 120 pass targets on a team with Golladay, Toney, and Robinson.
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we've joined the 21st century...
We're certainly going to stress linebackers and safeties a ton with Barkley, Robinson, and Toney.
I also think Jones will be able to get a better read on opposing defenses as we will motion a ton. When you motion your receivers, it helps the QB tell what kind of coverage the defense is employing.
The Giants were archaic with their lack of motion the last couple of seasons.
Last couple of seasons? That made me laugh. The Giants have virtually never snapped the ball in my lifetime while a player was in motion. That kind of motion not only helps with pre-snap reads, it helps the receiver get quick separation.
Lots of ways to score points and best to have balance and be successful both ways based on the matchup and scheme however the percentages fall.
No doubt BD wants to spread it and air it especially with a elite QB and some outstanding weapons. Still it was not being able to run between the tackles that sent him home in Jan.
I don't think we're going in that direction.
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running game. Even more so if they go QB next draft.
Lots of ways to score points and best to have balance and be successful both ways based on the matchup and scheme however the percentages fall.
No doubt BD wants to spread it and air it especially with a elite QB and some outstanding weapons. Still it was not being able to run between the tackles that sent him home in Jan.
I don't think we're going in that direction.
It’s pretty surprising to me with BD’s background and I’ll hold ur out hope he’ll develop a strong running game but I agree it’s not likely. I’m also some not thrilled with the hire but I’m on board for now.
Lots of ways to score points and best to have balance and be successful both ways based on the matchup and scheme however the percentages fall.
No doubt BD wants to spread it and air it especially with a elite QB and some outstanding weapons. Still it was not being able to run between the tackles that sent him home in Jan.
Uh, no. Buffalo went out in the playoffs - in overtime - because their defense gave up 42 points despite the offense scoring 36.
It is important to have some running game, but it's no longer a needed centerpiece to be successful in today's NFL.
Josh Allen was 8th in the NFL in intended air yards, which is a good measure of how deep the system wants targets to be. By contrast Mahomes was 25th.
Allen averaged 6.5 air yards per completion, Mahomes averaged 4.9.
I think Jones is much more of a poor man's Allen than Mahomes, and I think the offense will resemble the Bills more than the Chiefs.
I'll puke if Barkley gets 120 pass targets on a team with Golladay, Toney, and Robinson.
Teams did a lot to take away the deep ball from Mahomes and the Chiefs in 2021 with that Fangio Two-High shell look. He was at 6.3 in 2020 and 6.5 in 2019. Gave him serious issues at the beginning of 2021.
But until Jones can execute an offense even at an average level, this is really just a dream...
Go Terps, for now let's assume Jones is the QB (this year for sure) and say Eric is still right about what they will want to do with the system.
Toney will basically be the Davis/Hardman guy (Bills/Chiefs), Golladay will be the experienced WR the Sanders/Gordon guy (Bills/Chiefs). Robinson will be the Beasley guy (Chiefs didn't have another guy specifcially that fits this role) and what we are missing is our Diggs/Hill guy.
Barkley will be more the receiving threat than tyhe rushing threat in this new offense and could be the #1 weapon ala Hill/Diggs but coming out of the backfield or lining up wide.
What we become is VARIED, something we have not been in a LONG time.
We don't want Barkley catching 90 balls. Barkley is a career 5.7 yards/target player.
It's comforting to blame Shurmur, Judge, and Garrett for the recent offensive ineptitude. But they weren't the only problem.
Our players are not good.
I have high hopes for the rookies, but they're still going to be rookies in 2022. The rest of the players - I wouldn't get used to seeing them around.
I expect the offense to struggle again in 2022; anything over 20 PPG would surprise me. We don't have the players. Schoen needs time to get them.
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running game. Even more so if they go QB next draft.
Lots of ways to score points and best to have balance and be successful both ways based on the matchup and scheme however the percentages fall.
No doubt BD wants to spread it and air it especially with a elite QB and some outstanding weapons. Still it was not being able to run between the tackles that sent him home in Jan.
Uh, no. Buffalo went out in the playoffs - in overtime - because their defense gave up 42 points despite the offense scoring 36.
It is important to have some running game, but it's no longer a needed centerpiece to be successful in today's NFL.
We don’t agree much on Qb’s and offensive football. Reality was KC was about to put that game away until Reid called a very strange play. Buffalo heated up when Matthieu was injured. That 65 yard air strike by Allen was at his replacement. Then Baker was in at corner on top of it.
KC 175 yards on the ground. Buff got exposed on the lines as often happens in playoff football.
Now that said, I could see Saquon regain much of his form in this offense, especially with more time since the injury.
But I'm on record as saying I would showcase the crap out of him before the trade deadline and then move him.
That's simply not true. Pre-snap movement can help a QB determine if it is man versus zone coverage. That's football 101.
Have to think BD is fully aware of the pass blocking issue and has to find ways around it.
If that is the Giants offense, there will be a lot of defensive players stuffed in tight to the line of scrimmage.
Have to think BD is fully aware of the pass blocking issue and has to find ways around it.
The way around it is to not have him pass blocking. Go empty backfield or use one of these TEs/H-Backs they have now in pass pro.
I would not be shocked to see Matt Breida become a fan favorite (if he can cut down on the fumbling).
Now that said, I could see Saquon regain much of his form in this offense, especially with more time since the injury.
But I'm on record as saying I would showcase the crap out of him before the trade deadline and then move him.
I don't think Barkley's going to be a big weapon in the pass game, and that's a good thing - he's never been particularly effective in that role.
Buffalo didn't throw the ball a ton to the backs - here are their leading targets out of the backfield each year:
18: McCoy (46 targets)
19: Singletary (41)
20: Singletary (50)
21: Singletary (50)
I think Daboll wants to throw the ball to wide receivers who are running at speed. I don't think he's trying to throw the ball to the running back.
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Barkley just wasn't good last year. Yeah, the OL sucked. But he played soft, didn't seem to run with vision, and got tackled too easily. There was a reason why so many people on this site were calling for Booker to get more touches (and he's still unemployed too).
Now that said, I could see Saquon regain much of his form in this offense, especially with more time since the injury.
But I'm on record as saying I would showcase the crap out of him before the trade deadline and then move him.
I don't think Barkley's going to be a big weapon in the pass game, and that's a good thing - he's never been particularly effective in that role.
Buffalo didn't throw the ball a ton to the backs - here are their leading targets out of the backfield each year:
18: McCoy (46 targets)
19: Singletary (41)
20: Singletary (50)
21: Singletary (50)
I think Daboll wants to throw the ball to wide receivers who are running at speed. I don't think he's trying to throw the ball to the running back.
If you're right, there's really no role for Barkley, this year or in the future
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Showcase him and see if someone trades for hm. If his returns to form he still can be very dangerous when he gets space.
Have to think BD is fully aware of the pass blocking issue and has to find ways around it.
The way around it is to not have him pass blocking. Go empty backfield or use one of these TEs/H-Backs they have now in pass pro.
I would not be shocked to see Matt Breida become a fan favorite (if he can cut down on the fumbling).
He will have to figure something out. SB is not changing who he is. My guess is for this year he is get DJ to get the ball out quick. As he said “let it rip”
Maybe someone will trade for Barkley in season (I doubt it), but why would anyone trade for Jones at this point...so they can franchise him? Why wouldn't they just wait until free agency to sign him after 2022?
The only GM stupid enough to make such a trade retired - his name is Dave Gettleman.
The time to trade Jones and probably Barkley has passed. They've got no value anymore.
I wouldn’t look at Barkley’s stats as a reflection of what he was capable of, because the Giants were hamstrung in how they could even use him. He wasn’t running Kamara routes, preponderance of his targets behind the Los.
On top of all that, the only year we had any viable counter punch to Barkley was last year..and both players (Toney or Golladay) were either not on the field, or playing through injury at a suboptimal level.
It doesn't really matter for the purposes of this thread anyway; they're both going to be here in 2022.
I don't think the holdover players are a good fit for the offense Daboll ran in Buffalo. Toney is theoretically, but he fits zero of the smart, tough, dependable criteria.
Regarding Barkley, I've brought up the possibility of him moving to receiver in the past. Running in space is basically the one thing he does well, so get him the ball in space beyond the first level of defenders. But now with the injuries and his contract expiring I imagine Schoen would rather just draft Wan'Dale Robinson and a couple Robinson clones next year and the year after.
Robinson is the guy to watch. We know he's part of the future.
I am really fucking excited. The recent average QBs that have gotten farther than expected have all been in these systems. Less QB driven. More scheme and skill players. Short area quickness players are mandatory. We want to spread it,use motion, throw to the 1v1 or tuck it and run. These will be short passes thrown to guys that are murder 1v1.
Processing will be much less of an issue. I still want much better than Jones but man, I think our O is gonna roll. It masks some of Jones issues and his speed will more deadly if we can get Toney, Robinson and Barkley on the field together. 700 yards on the ground is achievable for Jones. They ran Allen, they will run Jones. Jones is going get TDs on the ground.
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will essentially be used as the big bodied receiver (ala in place of the TE) a lot in multiple sets.
Go Terps, for now let's assume Jones is the QB (this year for sure) and say Eric is still right about what they will want to do with the system.
Toney will basically be the Davis/Hardman guy (Bills/Chiefs), Golladay will be the experienced WR the Sanders/Gordon guy (Bills/Chiefs). Robinson will be the Beasley guy (Chiefs didn't have another guy specifcially that fits this role) and what we are missing is our Diggs/Hill guy.
Barkley will be more the receiving threat than tyhe rushing threat in this new offense and could be the #1 weapon ala Hill/Diggs but coming out of the backfield or lining up wide.
What we become is VARIED, something we have not been in a LONG time.
We don't want Barkley catching 90 balls. Barkley is a career 5.7 yards/target player.
It's comforting to blame Shurmur, Judge, and Garrett for the recent offensive ineptitude. But they weren't the only problem.
Our players are not good.
I have high hopes for the rookies, but they're still going to be rookies in 2022. The rest of the players - I wouldn't get used to seeing them around.
I expect the offense to struggle again in 2022; anything over 20 PPG would surprise me. We don't have the players. Schoen needs time to get them.
But here is the problem with your statement, some of our players may very well have been hindered by scheme, staff and certainly other players. Let's say Toney gets his head out of his ass and performs for this new regime the way he did against NO and Dallas last year. That is a HUGE step up.
Robinson is a rookie and that is not to be downplayed BUT, his skills are exactly what DaBoll wants out of certain players on his offense.
Oline, is clearly better than last year just on paper alone. If they perform to even average levels that is a huge step up. That improves everyone, including Jones.
Back to Barkley, your argument statistically about Barkley is flawed (and this is coming from me, a guy who thinks we should have traded Barkley in the offseason). You can't use statistics from past years in an offense that was very underwhelming. All I know is, Barkley 2018 , at least skillset wise, is perfect as a pass catcher. BTW- even if he stays at 5.7 yards that is positive yardage and if he breaks tackles on those receptions we are talking first downs.
Now Jones, the main reason you think all our players suck. You cannot have All-Pro's at every position, just not possible. You also can't change your sliding scale for Jones just because your previous scale numbers seem more than likely met just by having a much better Oline and a varied weaponized attack.
If Jones gets the Giants to plus 22 points a game, with what you say is a below average offense then he has done his job. if he gets us to 24 points a game this offense will be much better than you envision, all the while still needing a true #1 WR and a better TE.
You can't say everyone is horrible but the rookies and think this rebuild will ever be completed. No team, including the Chiefs have great players at every position.
The Giants have improvement still to do, that is without question but, they have talent enough to play against the NFC East and hopefully the rookies come along quickly.
The Oline will be far better and that cannot be discounted.
he was only 60 attempts, 100 yards, and 1 td behind Singletary.
and Zack Moss got another 96 attempts for 345 yards and 4 tds.
so altogether they ranked 6th in rushing with 2200 yards as a team against 1800 for their opponents.
as a function of the passing game they rotated backs heavily but if you add all their targets up they had 96 targets to RBs, which would have been 3rd most on the team behind Diggs and Beasley. That's also not counting any of Isaiah McKenzie's targets in the RB group.
so net-net I expect this to very much a pass first offense, but they are going to use their RBs. I don't think they are going to run Jones as much as Allen because it's just not possible. He will not hold up. And when he's out Taylor won't hold up either. So I think in lieu of QB runs we will see more quick passing plays like the Chiefs utilize to get the ball out of mahomes hands and pick up easy yards. barkley, breida, robinson, toney, james, shepard all fit that.
I don't think slayton or golladay fit, but i do think golladay could fill some of the TE routes Knox ran as an oversized slot.
slayton i think is a goner unless there's an injury in camp. just too 1 dimensional, inconsistent, and no special teams value.
i agree, and i think he was used pretty well in his rookie year. not perfect but well enough that he broke off more big plays than all but a handful of players in the entire NFL be it WR or RB.
his correct usage is the NO game - which only came about because they were down 2 scores in the 4th Q so they had to go pass first.
he had 13 runs in that game for 52 yards, 1 td.
and 5 receptions on 6 targets for 74 yards, 1 td.
i have no confidence that game was a lightbulb moment for jason garrett but the next week when barkley sprained his ankle it was on a passing route a little more down the field.
He should be. Getting him underneath on drag routes would be the way I would use him. If SB is healthy, he's going to outrun 95% of the LBs in the league.
He's got the hands to catch 70+ passes - easily.
This is the dream, hoping it comes true.
This is true.
whoever holds his rights after the season is tagging him if he plays well. and then probably doing that again the following year. RB 2nd contracts are going in the opposite direction of WR.
I actually do kind of wonder though if teams adjust to that economic reality and start opting to use RBs as a cheaper WR. The Packers kind of do that with Aaron Jones.
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that Allen and Mahomes are generational talents that can make ANY offense look great. They have God-given arm talent to bail out plays that are failing. So those skills are embedded in the success of Daboll's offensive in Buffalo and Kafka's work in KC.
This is true.
So? What's the point? That we should stick with an old-fashioned offense? Do we want Jason Garrett back?
BBI will prefer to let Barkley go.....and sign Other FA?
Why?
I'm looking forward to Daboll modernizing the offense. It's been a long time coming.
I'd just manage expectations until they get their own players in. IMO this project started when Thibodeaux was drafted; anyone here before him doesn't really matter long term.
It'll come. 2022 is going to be rough though.
Right or wrong, that's not the direction this team is moving towards. I could be wrong, but I think we're following the Bills/KC model (for obvious reasons) and not the 49er model.
Tennessee led the league in rush attempts last year with 551. Their running backs had 489 carries - 28.8 per game. That's the league leaders.
No one runs the ball that much anymore. They don't because it's an inefficient way to move the ball.
I hope as the Giants improve their offensive personnel they evolve into throwing the ball 60%+ of the time.
That doesn't mean the running game can't be a weapon. If you spread a defense out and they can't put that extra man in the box, Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal can do some damage for Barkley and Breida. All both need is just a crack.
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In comment 15705610 bw in dc said:
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that Allen and Mahomes are generational talents that can make ANY offense look great. They have God-given arm talent to bail out plays that are failing. So those skills are embedded in the success of Daboll's offensive in Buffalo and Kafka's work in KC.
This is true.
So? What's the point? That we should stick with an old-fashioned offense? Do we want Jason Garrett back?
I think the point is the type of offense might not matter if the QB can't execute.
You don't think otherworldly talents like Allen and Mahomes couldn't successfully run the Garrett Q? Of course they could...
the chiefs ran it less and averaged fewer ypg with more passes to their rbs and shiftier receivers. all of their WRs had low ypc and high catch% because they were catching a ton of short balls.
everyone thinks of hardman and hill as explosive deep threats but they both averaged 11 ypc and 70% catch rates last year. I wouldn't have guessed that with either player.
Both teams had good run/pass balance (granted their run games wne through their QBs a lot.) Both were top 10 in rush attempts.
Buffalo had a pretty vertical pass game. Mahomes in the past has thrown the ball deep well.
Golladay is a pure down field threat, Robinson was used as a down field threat at Kentucky, and that's basically all Slayton can do (if he's on the roster).
It's also the one plus skill Jones has shown in his career.
I'd guess the Giants run a lot of RPO to help clear coverages and make Jones's read easier.
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That puts up 135-150 yards on the ground with 28-32 rb attempts and the QB throwing for 250 with several chunk plays not modern? Give me that type of prehistoric team any day. More so on a QB in years 1-4. Bookend tackles in place with the chance to add more to the interior next draft. Mmm.
Tennessee led the league in rush attempts last year with 551. Their running backs had 489 carries - 28.8 per game. That's the league leaders.
No one runs the ball that much anymore. They don't because it's an inefficient way to move the ball.
I hope as the Giants improve their offensive personnel they evolve into throwing the ball 60%+ of the time.
Cleveland did and Baker won a playoff game. The issue with all the pass guys is very few QB’s have the skills and necessary skill guys to win a championship. God forbid you lose your top WR.
The odds are far greater building the team through the running game with a rookie QB and outstanding OL. This been proven over the last four decades with QBs on rookie contracts. That contract enables a smart team to also build a top defense. For some reason some have a hard time understanding that these type of offensive teams are plenty exciting with impact pass plays.
If you have a elite QB on a second contract it’s a different ballgame. Brady, Eli, Ben, Wilson, etc we’re not elite the first SB.
Tennessee led the league in rush attempts last year with 551. Their running backs had 489 carries - 28.8 per game. That's the league leaders.
No one runs the ball that much anymore. They don't because it's an inefficient way to move the ball.
I hope as the Giants improve their offensive personnel they evolve into throwing the ball 60%+ of the time.
I'd love to replicate that approach. But in order to do that, you need the Secretariat of RBs - a Derrick Henry. Saquon Barkley is the complete opposite of that.
So, let's chuck it around and take advantage of the rules that beg teams to pass.
Both teams had good run/pass balance (granted their run games wne through their QBs a lot.) Both were top 10 in rush attempts.
Buffalo had a pretty vertical pass game. Mahomes in the past has thrown the ball deep well.
Golladay is a pure down field threat, Robinson was used as a down field threat at Kentucky, and that's basically all Slayton can do (if he's on the roster).
It's also the one plus skill Jones has shown in his career.
I'd guess the Giants run a lot of RPO to help clear coverages and make Jones's read easier.
compliment to mix in. look how many passes mahomes threw behind the los last year. i think we are going to see an offense with a lot of short passes to favorable matchups, quick hitters off motion and rpos, jet sweeps - all in combination with a lot of shots downfield.
i would think it puts defenses in a tough position if they think there's a near equal probability any given play could go over the top or have them needing to fill quickly with gap integrity because a small fast player only needs 1 crease.
that's basically a lot of the air raid/spread in a nutshell.
My only guess is Barkley gets 250 carries and they run a lot of RPO to clear out reads for Jones.
Never mind he averaged 2 TDs per game in the only season he played in a modern offense .
But something tells me Taylor will be starting maybe before mid-season. I just seems Taylor is more of a Kafka type QB than Jones.
You don't think otherworldly talents like Allen and Mahomes couldn't successfully run the Garrett Q? Of course they could...
So I think sure they could run Garrets offense..but running the Giants offense in 2021 after players started dropping like flies..each I’d expect would have career worst seasons had they each traded places with Jones. They are each clearly better than Jones and Both would outperform Jones, we’d notch a few more wins..but we’d still miss playoffs imo. Giants roster post injuries was just a disaster last year on O.
I don't think slayton or golladay fit, but i do think golladay could fill some of the TE routes Knox ran as an oversized slot.
slayton i think is a goner unless there's an injury in camp. just too 1 dimensional, inconsistent, and no special teams value.
If they use Toney, Robinson, Barkley, Shep and the TE all in the short passing game, they need someone to be a vertical threat. I don't love Golladay or Slayton, but then who, at the moment?
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I don't think slayton or golladay fit, but i do think golladay could fill some of the TE routes Knox ran as an oversized slot.
slayton i think is a goner unless there's an injury in camp. just too 1 dimensional, inconsistent, and no special teams value.
If they use Toney, Robinson, Barkley, Shep and the TE all in the short passing game, they need someone to be a vertical threat. I don't love Golladay or Slayton, but then who, at the moment?
Robinson and Toney can go vertical and so can Golladay (especially down the seems similar to how buff used Knox).
I think what they want are players who can do both so the defense has to worry about both on any given play.
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For the first time it feels like we are staring to see a young base of players. Now we need our QB. I think Jones and Saquon can do better than some here expect. Best case will be that happening and our dealing them for assets we can package to get our QB.
Maybe someone will trade for Barkley in season (I doubt it), but why would anyone trade for Jones at this point...so they can franchise him? Why wouldn't they just wait until free agency to sign him after 2022?
The only GM stupid enough to make such a trade retired - his name is Dave Gettleman.
The time to trade Jones and probably Barkley has passed. They've got no value anymore.
Golladay is being paid like he's one of the NFL's biggest difference makers. And he clearly is not that.
But they can't ditch the contract yet.
best case scenario for the Giants is that Barkley goes off in the first half of the year, and some playoff-bound team overpays for him before the trade deadline. We need another #1 pick.
best case scenario for the Giants is that Barkley goes off in the first half of the year, and some playoff-bound team overpays for him before the trade deadline. We need another #1 pick.
he won't bring back a 1st but he could bring back a 2nd. Or a 3rd and a 4th. The deadline inflates prices because contenders purchasing rentals know they are going to get a comp pick back for the player when he walks in FA.
Ex. the Rams would have qualified for a 3rd round pick if Von Miller wasn't too old for the comp picks rules. I believe they did that with Dante Fowler a few years ago, traded for him at the deadline and then let him walk for a 3rd round comp pick so it ended up being basically a neutral trade.
But say in my ultra-rosy scenario Barkley is on pace for a 2,000-yard type of season again (1,000 combined yards near the mid-way point), some playoff bound team that will have a late 1st might consider him.
I dream, don't I?
But I haven't completely given up on Daniel Jones yet so there's that.
Jones ends up being "the guy."
One 1st rounder on the CB.
Second 1st rounder on the WR.
Presto.
The ones who try to hide what they don't know to begin with - ( New Window )
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so let's find out if he can run it or not.
They only want to find out that he can't run it. They won't admit it, but deep down they are scared shitless of the possibility that Jones plays well. And if Jones and Barkley both play well, Go Terps will have a nervous breakdown (or he'll fake one for sympathy's sake). The ones who try to hide what they don't know to begin with - ( New Window )
You care a lot what I think. That's a one way street.
Improving the trenches also increases the success of the RBs, the QBs, and the WRs. Last year we had WRs who didn't get a lot of separation. With Toney and Robinson, that may no longer be the case.
Now on top of all those improvements, I think most of us believe we improved the talent at coaching as well. It seems to me, that we couldn't have wished for a more massive upgrade to our offense in almost every way possible.
Now defense is a different matter. We got killed in the secondary in the short term. But we also got Thibodeaux to massively upgrade the pass rush. So that's kind of a trade off. Still, let's assume we upgraded the coaching staff on the defensive side of the ball and we should be a bit better on defense.
So, it seems to me we dramatically improved on offense, and should be a bit better on defense. Are we Superbowl bound? Not yet! But as Shoen said, "We will be competitive."
The problem, Terps, is that most Giants fans are rooting for Daniel Jones to succeed. You and bw are rooting for him to fail. You might as well be Cowboys fans.
Now that said, I could see Saquon regain much of his form in this offense, especially with more time since the injury.
But I'm on record as saying I would showcase the crap out of him before the trade deadline and then move him.
Ding, ding, ding, ding - we have a winner!
There are plenty of people calling out the reality of the situation involving DJ, however.
Those are different things.
But he is still very dangerous in space which is is what this offense is designed for.
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Reality can be tough to take sometimes.
The problem, Terps, is that most Giants fans are rooting for Daniel Jones to succeed. You and bw are rooting for him to fail. You might as well be Cowboys fans.
There's a difference between rooting for an outcome and expecting an outcome
Geeked about Robinson too. Very excited to see what happens there.
There were 2 games last season, one against Washington and I forget the other, where Giants had the ball and needed a first down to clinch game.
He ran on first and second and never challenged the defense on 3 rd. Both games the defense couldn’t hold and they lost.
Judge was awful in his conservative approach
The reason they want to allow the QB to "shut off their brain" is when QB's get mentally exhausted from too many reads they get sloppy and make mistakes. I feel like Jones has been a perfect example of this - it always feels like he's overthinking and when he tries to do too much he gets in trouble. I can't tell you the amount of times the defense would show a look, DJ would audible, defense would audible, then no gain up the middle. So much work to get 0 yards.
I think this fits with what Daboll is trying to do with Wan'Dale, KT and Barkley; find the quick mismatch and quickly try to get them the ball in space. This should make the game easier for DJ and hopefully give him a chance to put his best foot forward.
The problem, Terps, is that most Giants fans are rooting for Daniel Jones to succeed. You and bw are rooting for him to fail. You might as well be Cowboys fans.
I am tired of watching Jones play QB - I'll give you that. But I don't root against him. Just another BBI fallacy.
I wish he would live up his 6th pick expectations so we could take advantage of his rookie contract. Unfortunately, he's been a major disappointment so far and is a big reason why the team is bad.
Fortunately for him, Jones gets a 4th bite at the apple to show that he's capable of being a franchise QB. That is awfully generous by the folks at 125 Giants Way, especially in this day and age...
But he is still very dangerous in space which is is what this offense is designed for.
I don’t think Barkley is dangerous in space at all. It ain’t 2018 any more.
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In comment 15705850 Go Terps said:
The problem, Terps, is that most Giants fans are rooting for Daniel Jones to succeed. You and bw are rooting for him to fail. You might as well be Cowboys fans.
I am tired of watching Jones play QB - I'll give you that. But I don't root against him. Just another BBI fallacy.
I wish he would live up his 6th pick expectations so we could take advantage of his rookie contract. Unfortunately, he's been a major disappointment so far and is a big reason why the team is bad.
Fortunately for him, Jones gets a 4th bite at the apple to show that he's capable of being a franchise QB. That is awfully generous by the folks at 125 Giants Way, especially in this day and age...
I wouldn't say generous - I'd say realistic. If you don't like the QB's in the 2022 draft, which they clearly didn't by passing on them in the 3rd, then what are your other options? They don't have a roster on the cusp of contention so no reason to be a part of the Wilson, Watson, etc. sweepstakes. Mayfield hasn't proven much more than DJ and costs far more in 2022. Sure you could have tried to sign Mariotta or Trubisky, but neither has proven to be any better than DJ.
They hope that the problem has been less DJ driven and more about the coaching/supporting cast. The team isn't likely to be competitive in 2022 and the goal is to build for 2023+, so it only makes sense to see what they have in DJ in an innovative offense that caters to his strengths.
Of course he can be a major factor in the passing game. He actually was a major factor in the passing game in 18 and 19.
Barkley is insanely underrated around here. Again people, the guy was miserably injured virtually all of 2022--playing on a majorly repaired knee and then playing on a brutal ankle sprain.
Odds are Barkley plays closer to 2018-19 levels this coming season. He's in shape, 2 years removed from the knee and one year removed from the ankle. If he stays healthy, something every player going has to be held to, he's going to dominate this season. I'd bet on it.
You care a lot what I think. That's a one way street.
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You care a lot what I think. That's a one way street.
It's a zero way street. It's possible to find someone incredibly annoying without caring a lick about what they think. In fact, that's usually the case, don't you think?
don't bring me down - ( New Window )
There are plenty of people calling out the reality of the situation involving DJ, however.
Those are different things.
There's a portion of fans who feel like you're a "bad fan" if a player who hasn't won anything and has barely played well over 3 years doesn't get your pom poms waving.
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on here are rooting for DJ to fail.
There are plenty of people calling out the reality of the situation involving DJ, however.
Those are different things.
There's a portion of fans who feel like you're a "bad fan" if a player who hasn't won anything and has barely played well over 3 years doesn't get your pom poms waving.
Poor Phil Simms.
exactly 2 months later they were celebrating in the canyon of heroes.
that's how quickly things can change - and had they not switched from hufnagel to gillbride it would not have happened.
I am tired of watching Jones play QB - I'll give you that. But I don't root against him. Just another BBI fallacy.
I wish he would live up his 6th pick expectations so we could take advantage of his rookie contract. Unfortunately, he's been a major disappointment so far and is a big reason why the team is bad.
Fortunately for him, Jones gets a 4th bite at the apple to show that he's capable of being a franchise QB. That is awfully generous by the folks at 125 Giants Way, especially in this day and age...
I wouldn't say generous - I'd say realistic. If you don't like the QB's in the 2022 draft, which they clearly didn't by passing on them in the 3rd, then what are your other options? They don't have a roster on the cusp of contention so no reason to be a part of the Wilson, Watson, etc. sweepstakes. Mayfield hasn't proven much more than DJ and costs far more in 2022. Sure you could have tried to sign Mariotta or Trubisky, but neither has proven to be any better than DJ.
They hope that the problem has been less DJ driven and more about the coaching/supporting cast. The team isn't likely to be competitive in 2022 and the goal is to build for 2023+, so it only makes sense to see what they have in DJ in an innovative offense that caters to his strengths.
We've been over a lot of real estate you mentioned.
I'll just say may want to revisit your comments on Trubisky. He's been more productive than Jones. And he was affordable. Unfortunately, Trubisky would have wanted to compete for the starting position, and that seemingly went against the interests of 125 Giants Way.
My stance on Jones overlaps with Terps's view - more reps for Jones going forward just wastes time to evaluate someone else. Which is what we should be doing in 2022 instead of "All In on Jones", Part 2.
Jones has been non-competitive.
This was also prior to the rookie wage scale which has made a rookie contract QB a massive advantage. There wasn't going to be a massive advantage to moving on from Eli. Unless Jones plays near an MVP level in 2022 paying him is an absurdity.
The Eli and Simms comparisons are poorly thought out and usually come from our dimmest posters.
Jones has been non-competitive.
This was also prior to the rookie wage scale which has made a rookie contract QB a massive advantage. There wasn't going to be a massive advantage to moving on from Eli. Unless Jones plays near an MVP level in 2022 paying him is an absurdity.
The Eli and Simms comparisons are poorly thought out and usually come from our dimmest posters.
do you remember the 2005 and 2006 postseasons? combined in his first 2 playoff games he had 26 completions, under 60% as he was in his first 3 full seasons, under 280 yards, 4 turnovers, and only scored 20 points. Those were years 2 and 3 of his career. i was at the carolina game and i can tell you a lot of people gave up that day.
No one is saying Eli was great. He wasn't. But he was competitive.
Competitive is orders of magnitude beyond what Jones has been. Our scale has gotten all out of whack. It's now a big deal if we score 20 points in a game.
The situations are just not comparable.
Also not all good or even great players play well in their first ever playoffs appearances. It's a thing that people know about but choose to forget when it's convenient. Fans were more eager to be mad that they lost than deal with reality.
Eli had good offensive lines from basically 2005 on.
Tiki was setting franchise records and literally carried them into both of those playoffs with 200+ yards in both week 17's.
the defenses in those years weren't exceptional but they had Osi/Strahan and were generally decent whereas the 2019 defense was the worst nyg defense in the SB era.
the situations aren't exactly comparable.
Also not all good or even great players play well in their first ever playoffs appearances. It's a thing that people know about but choose to forget when it's convenient. Fans were more eager to be mad that they lost than deal with reality.
TTH honest question for you, in year 4 after throwing 2 touchdowns to Darren Sharper and 4 ints total, what % of the fanbase do you estimate was behind Eli?
What would be saying if this were all playing out in Philly or Dallas?
We'd be incredulous that the quarterback got another scholarship year.
We can be explosive.
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But I was 18 years old back then and even I knew that Giants team in 05 limped into the playoffs with big injuries.
Also not all good or even great players play well in their first ever playoffs appearances. It's a thing that people know about but choose to forget when it's convenient. Fans were more eager to be mad that they lost than deal with reality.
TTH honest question for you, in year 4 after throwing 2 touchdowns to Darren Sharper and 4 ints total, what % of the fanbase do you estimate was behind Eli?
The guy that threw those picks had performed FAR better than Jones to that point.
What would be saying if this were all playing out in Philly or Dallas?
We'd be incredulous that the quarterback got another scholarship year.
it is playing out in Philly, Hurts sucks. They rightfully keeping draft capital in the future.
Dak didn't break out in Dallas until year 4 - and most of us (myself included) were laughing/begging them to tag him/extend him when the rumors came out that he was asking for 30m/year. Now he's a 40m QB I'd take in a heartbeat.
The NFL isn't as predictable as you like to pretend it is.
His QBRs in years 4 and 5 were 72 and 73.
So, Prescott had more than established himself as a bonafide top ten QB by YR4.
The guy that threw those picks had performed FAR better than Jones to that point.
by only 2 metrics - health and record - both of which are very important but neither of which is totally in any 1 player's control.
despite better teams and coaches around him
Eli threw more interceptions at a higher rate,
passed for fewer yards per game,
on a lower yards per attempt,
on a lower completion percentage,
for a much lower QB rating.
Eli didn't post a single season QB rating over 77 until his 5th season.
The only person who fans/media tried to run out of town by 2006 faster than Eli was Coughlin.
That's like saying 2019 Jones was better than 1986 Phil Simms.
His QBRs in years 4 and 5 were 72 and 73.
So, Prescott had more than established himself as a bonafide top ten QB by YR4.
wrong. he was considered an efficient game manager in a conservative Dallas offense with the OL and Zeke doing most of the heavy lifting.
he hadn't passed for more than 3800 yards in a season.
he hadn't thrown for more than 23 tds in a season.
his YPG were basically exactly where Jones' are for his career.
pre-Kellen Moore Dak was not a top 10 QB. See the article below from 2019. his first game under Kellen Moore in 2019 was when he lit up Bettcher's defense for like 4 touchdowns and 400 yards and from that point forward everything was different.
Feb 19, 2019
I promised to get to a very important topic early in the offseason but then pushed it off for a few weeks. Honestly, how much more can be said about the question of a Dak Prescott contract extension?
Evidently, plenty.
With each passing week, the noise around the Cowboys QB entering his fourth year intensifies. Despite thinking that this team has more pressing matters — DeMarcus Lawrence’s free agency comes to mind — perhaps we are deluding ourselves. There is no bigger issue than the biggest contract in franchise history.
Yes, there are still loyal and lifelong Cowboys fans who still question whether Prescott is actually a good quarterback at all. I think it is probably a waste of time at this point to try to convince them any longer when the guy has made 51 NFL starts while upholding a high standard. If they are not sure, they aren’t going to be swayed.
and by the way Jerry Jones and the Dallas' FO agreed because they didn't extend him at the $30m AAV suggested in this article, they continued to tag him through 2020, and ultimately ended up extending him for a lot more after he proved he's a franchise QB.
The largest contract quandary in Cowboys history: How does Dallas approach a Dak Prescott extension? - ( New Window )
That's like saying 2019 Jones was better than 1986 Phil Simms.
Jones played in an offense from before Eli's era the last couple years with worse players so it's actually not that much of an apples to oranges comparison. certainly not as apples to oranges as the coaching staff/offensive line differences the 2 had.
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But I was 18 years old back then and even I knew that Giants team in 05 limped into the playoffs with big injuries.
Also not all good or even great players play well in their first ever playoffs appearances. It's a thing that people know about but choose to forget when it's convenient. Fans were more eager to be mad that they lost than deal with reality.
TTH honest question for you, in year 4 after throwing 2 touchdowns to Darren Sharper and 4 ints total, what % of the fanbase do you estimate was behind Eli?
That's a different context from year 2 playoffs to year 4.
And I get why fans would have been mad year 4. Few will remember this but Coughlin himself told the story of Eli being emotional about his performance and wanting to be better. He wasn't living up to his potential.
The difference is Eli was a consensus top 5 pick with an illustrious college career. Much was expected and he wasn't living up to it with enough consistency to win with.
Jones hasn't accomplished anything at any level to believe he's secretly an NFL qb you can win with.
He wasn't a particularly good college QB so what is there to hang your hat on? The hope now is Daboll can prop him up like McVay did for Goff with scheme and surrounding talent.
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In comment 15706261 bw in dc said:
I am tired of watching Jones play QB - I'll give you that. But I don't root against him. Just another BBI fallacy.
I wish he would live up his 6th pick expectations so we could take advantage of his rookie contract. Unfortunately, he's been a major disappointment so far and is a big reason why the team is bad.
Fortunately for him, Jones gets a 4th bite at the apple to show that he's capable of being a franchise QB. That is awfully generous by the folks at 125 Giants Way, especially in this day and age...
I wouldn't say generous - I'd say realistic. If you don't like the QB's in the 2022 draft, which they clearly didn't by passing on them in the 3rd, then what are your other options? They don't have a roster on the cusp of contention so no reason to be a part of the Wilson, Watson, etc. sweepstakes. Mayfield hasn't proven much more than DJ and costs far more in 2022. Sure you could have tried to sign Mariotta or Trubisky, but neither has proven to be any better than DJ.
They hope that the problem has been less DJ driven and more about the coaching/supporting cast. The team isn't likely to be competitive in 2022 and the goal is to build for 2023+, so it only makes sense to see what they have in DJ in an innovative offense that caters to his strengths.
We've been over a lot of real estate you mentioned.
I'll just say may want to revisit your comments on Trubisky. He's been more productive than Jones. And he was affordable. Unfortunately, Trubisky would have wanted to compete for the starting position, and that seemingly went against the interests of 125 Giants Way.
My stance on Jones overlaps with Terps's view - more reps for Jones going forward just wastes time to evaluate someone else. Which is what we should be doing in 2022 instead of "All In on Jones", Part 2.
Nobody is "all in" on Jones - he's just the best option for 2022 to evaluate if you want him to be your starter long term. The main disagreement here is that the anti-Jones crowd thinks they've seen enough to know he's a bust; the majority of fans are in the middle ground where they think there's less than a 50% chance he's here in 2023, but they have seen enough bright spots to earn him another chance in a better offensive scheme with a better OL.
I think the Trubisky/Jones debate is one where they basically have been the same player, however Trubisky has played on much better teams. Yes his contract is affordable, but the Giants are counting pennies and adding Mitch is still roughly double what you are paying Taylor.
Why is that important? Because people keep hanging in to the hope that Jones will “emerge” in his 4th pro year. But a late blooming QB hasnt emerged in his 4th season in recent pro history (since the loosening of the coverage rules, new CBA). There’s literally no precedent for it happening. Prescott certainly doesn’t support the hope.
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In comment 15706507 Ten Ton Hammer said:
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But I was 18 years old back then and even I knew that Giants team in 05 limped into the playoffs with big injuries.
Also not all good or even great players play well in their first ever playoffs appearances. It's a thing that people know about but choose to forget when it's convenient. Fans were more eager to be mad that they lost than deal with reality.
TTH honest question for you, in year 4 after throwing 2 touchdowns to Darren Sharper and 4 ints total, what % of the fanbase do you estimate was behind Eli?
That's a different context from year 2 playoffs to year 4.
And I get why fans would have been mad year 4. Few will remember this but Coughlin himself told the story of Eli being emotional about his performance and wanting to be better. He wasn't living up to his potential.
The difference is Eli was a consensus top 5 pick with an illustrious college career. Much was expected and he wasn't living up to it with enough consistency to win with.
Jones hasn't accomplished anything at any level to believe he's secretly an NFL qb you can win with.
He wasn't a particularly good college QB so what is there to hang your hat on? The hope now is Daboll can prop him up like McVay did for Goff with scheme and surrounding talent.
the question for this year is who is the best option? not is he worth an extension.
i'd also disagree that Jones hasn't done anything, he's put up some consistently solid numbers in a terrible offense/environment.
i see him as miami Tannehill right now which was ironically who many comp'd him to coming out of duke -- and that's not meant to say he should be extended, Miami probably made the right decision letting Tannehill walk. what they didn't do was a good job of using him to the best of his ability before he walked. had they, they would have gotten more for him when he walked and been in better position to effectively find a replacement instead of stepping backwards to a collection of players who have been worse than Tannehill.
Why is that important? Because people keep hanging in to the hope that Jones will “emerge” in his 4th pro year. But a late blooming QB hasnt emerged in his 4th season in recent pro history (since the loosening of the coverage rules, new CBA). There’s literally no precedent for it happening. Prescott certainly doesn’t support the hope.
If Dak was a franchise QB as you say in 2019 when the article I posted was written after his 3rd season, why did they not extend him for 2 years until May 2021?
Do you not see any difference in his performance years 1-3 with Garrett's offense and years 4-6 with Kellen Moore?
I was told last night nobody runs the ball like this anymore. GoTerps.
What is missing here is how much this changes the outcome for a young QB. When you are sitting in 2nd and 5 with high frequency it makes the job so much easier. PA is actually a threat. Simplifies reads. Forces defense to account for both run/pass which changes how they cover/rush etc. Wr's/TE's have a easier path to getting open.
This was actually the plan that DG wanted as it is a tried and true formula for breaking in young QB's. It's the one Eli broke in with. It just was horribly executed.
I don't think Jones is long for the team but to say he has had anywhere close to the support that Dak or Eli had his first three years is pretty ignorant imv. Dak had two HOF's on his OL and a third who was a Pro Bowler.
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in his first three years were 77, 70, and 55.
His QBRs in years 4 and 5 were 72 and 73.
So, Prescott had more than established himself as a bonafide top ten QB by YR4.
wrong. he was considered an efficient game manager in a conservative Dallas offense with the OL and Zeke doing most of the heavy lifting.
he hadn't passed for more than 3800 yards in a season.
he hadn't thrown for more than 23 tds in a season.
his YPG were basically exactly where Jones' are for his career.
pre-Kellen Moore Dak was not a top 10 QB. See the article below from 2019. his first game under Kellen Moore in 2019 was when he lit up Bettcher's defense for like 4 touchdowns and 400 yards and from that point forward everything was different.
Your go-to stats are total passing yards, TDs, and YPG?? JFC, if you want to make it a fair fight at least come with a gun, not a knife.
In his first three years, Dak's QBR ranking versus the rest of the league were: 3rd, 4th, 17th.
And in his fourth year, he was 4th.
QBR isn't a flawless stat, but it tries to smooth out an assortment of variables based on game circumstances. It's a helluva lot more reliable than YPG, total passing yards, and TDs.
In YPA, another solid metric, Dak was in the top six in two of his first four years. The other two years, he was below 17th.
On average, blending QBR and YPA, I think a reasonable view would conclude that Dak was a top ten QB.
As for Jones negotiations, he negotiates hard. Good for him. Although he does have a tendency to cave.
This year, Dak finished 11th in QBR, 10th in YPA and 7th in AY/A. So, it seems his early work suggesting a top ten QB have held up moving forward...
I was told last night nobody runs the ball like this anymore. GoTerps.
What is missing here is how much this changes the outcome for a young QB. When you are sitting in 2nd and 5 with high frequency it makes the job so much easier. PA is actually a threat. Simplifies reads. Forces defense to account for both run/pass which changes how they cover/rush etc. Wr's/TE's have a easier path to getting open.
This was actually the plan that DG wanted as it is a tried and true formula for breaking in young QB's. It's the one Eli broke in with. It just was horribly executed.
I don't think Jones is long for the team but to say he has had anywhere close to the support that Dak or Eli had his first three years is pretty ignorant imv. Dak had two HOF's on his OL and a third who was a Pro Bowler.
You said you wanted to see the running backs get 28-32 carries a game. I showed you that only the league leader reached that number last year.
Yes, you were told. What you do with that information is up to you.
Teams that are getting 28-32 attempts averaging 135 yards or more/game with QB’s in their first 4 years have very favorable playoff probabilities. Football 101.
Information is also good. Unfortunately yours doesn’t change history regarding this.
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In comment 15706569 bw in dc said:
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in his first three years were 77, 70, and 55.
His QBRs in years 4 and 5 were 72 and 73.
So, Prescott had more than established himself as a bonafide top ten QB by YR4.
wrong. he was considered an efficient game manager in a conservative Dallas offense with the OL and Zeke doing most of the heavy lifting.
he hadn't passed for more than 3800 yards in a season.
he hadn't thrown for more than 23 tds in a season.
his YPG were basically exactly where Jones' are for his career.
pre-Kellen Moore Dak was not a top 10 QB. See the article below from 2019. his first game under Kellen Moore in 2019 was when he lit up Bettcher's defense for like 4 touchdowns and 400 yards and from that point forward everything was different.
Your go-to stats are total passing yards, TDs, and YPG?? JFC, if you want to make it a fair fight at least come with a gun, not a knife.
In his first three years, Dak's QBR ranking versus the rest of the league were: 3rd, 4th, 17th.
And in his fourth year, he was 4th.
QBR isn't a flawless stat, but it tries to smooth out an assortment of variables based on game circumstances. It's a helluva lot more reliable than YPG, total passing yards, and TDs.
In YPA, another solid metric, Dak was in the top six in two of his first four years. The other two years, he was below 17th.
On average, blending QBR and YPA, I think a reasonable view would conclude that Dak was a top ten QB.
As for Jones negotiations, he negotiates hard. Good for him. Although he does have a tendency to cave.
This year, Dak finished 11th in QBR, 10th in YPA and 7th in AY/A. So, it seems his early work suggesting a top ten QB have held up moving forward...
Go post this narrative on the Dallas website and you will get eaten alive. Most of their fans will tell that Dak for all his grand stats never shows up in the big games and has padded stats. He does not make all the throws, has a questionable arm strength, cannot read defenses and needs everything to be perfect to win. Sound familiar. He has won nothing in 6 years.
bw is a broken clock that's not even right twice a day. notice there's no answer as to why Dak was a franchise QB in 2019 but they didn't extend him for more than 2 years (and after he suffered a pretty gruesome injury no less).
But they are 53-32 with him at the helm. So, he's doing something right as Dallas has five winning seasons out of six with him as the starter. And that's a bit misleading because he only played five games in 2020 before he got hurt against NYG in Dallas.
He's not Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Herbert. But he's right at that top ten threshold. He makes plays and is a dual threat.
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Go post this narrative on the Dallas website and you will get eaten alive. Most of their fans will tell that Dak for all his grand stats never shows up in the big games and has padded stats. He does not make all the throws, has a questionable arm strength, cannot read defenses and needs everything to be perfect to win. Sound familiar. He has won nothing in 6 years.
bw is a broken clock that's not even right twice a day. notice there's no answer as to why Dak was a franchise QB in 2019 but they didn't extend him for more than 2 years (and after he suffered a pretty gruesome injury no less).
I’d be happy with once a day to start. Don’t expect a answer. He just moves to a different thread.
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In comment 15706781 joe48 said:
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Go post this narrative on the Dallas website and you will get eaten alive. Most of their fans will tell that Dak for all his grand stats never shows up in the big games and has padded stats. He does not make all the throws, has a questionable arm strength, cannot read defenses and needs everything to be perfect to win. Sound familiar. He has won nothing in 6 years.
bw is a broken clock that's not even right twice a day. notice there's no answer as to why Dak was a franchise QB in 2019 but they didn't extend him for more than 2 years (and after he suffered a pretty gruesome injury no less).
I’d be happy with once a day to start. Don’t expect a answer. He just moves to a different thread.
honestly it would be a favor i don't know why i waste the time i do.
for fun though BW claims Dak was a top 10 QB in March 2019 off the following season (his 3rd):
Dak - 67%, 3885 yards, 22 tds, 8 ints, 7.4 y/a, 96 qb rtg, 55 qbr
QB A - 66%, 4,299 yards, 21 tds, 11 ints, 7.5 y/a, 92 qb rtg, 49 qbr
QB B - 62%, 3,000 yards, 24 tds, 12 ints, 6.6 y/a, 87 qb rtg, 55 qbr
do we think BW considered QB A or QB B top 10 QBs? i'll only offer 1 hint, neither player had the dallas OL in front of them.
And the stats, well the ones should matter, bear that out. Especially when Dak got back on track in 2019.
Of course, I'm dealing with posters who think total passing yards and passing yards per game are reliable indicators.
Which means Jameis Winston was the best QB in 2018 when he passed for 5K+ yards and 320 YPG. Do you want to stand by that, btw?
And the stats, well the ones should matter, bear that out. Especially when Dak got back on track in 2019.
Of course, I'm dealing with posters who think total passing yards and passing yards per game are reliable indicators.
Which means Jameis Winston was the best QB in 2018 when he passed for 5K+ yards and 320 YPG. Do you want to stand by that, btw?
he may have been if he didn't also throw 30 interceptions. notice i list interceptions and all the other important statistical inputs used to evaluate QBs for the last 50 years as opposed to the 1 opaque stat your fond of.
as you project your impairments it reminds me you've still forgotten to answer a very simple question - if the total body of work was top 10 QB, why did it take Dallas 2.5 years to extend him? why let a franchise QB play out his final year on his rookie deal, just as the nyg are doing right now with Jones?
he may have been if he didn't also throw 30 interceptions. notice i list interceptions and all the other important statistical inputs used to evaluate QBs for the last 50 years as opposed to the 1 opaque stat your fond of.
as you project your impairments it reminds me you've still forgotten to answer a very simple question - if the total body of work was top 10 QB, why did it take Dallas 2.5 years to extend him? why let a franchise QB play out his final year on his rookie deal, just as the nyg are doing right now with Jones?
Stats like QBR, YPA, AY/A are much better measuring sticks because they are aggregated numbers that take so many variables into account. Perfect? No. But they are better than ancient stats like total yards. I mean, you also referenced Pass Rating. What a junk measurement that is.
I don't know why it took Jerry so long to reach a deal with Dak. Jerry was playing hardball. I feel pretty comfortable taking the position, however, that Jerry missed an opportunity to get Dak cheaper because - I believe - Dak decided to scrap negotiations, gamble on himself, and going into 2020 by accepting the franchise tag.
But how has it played out? Is Dak a top ten QB or not?
Jerry can be a lot of things but he knows OL play and he knows what big time QB play looks like.
Jerry can be a lot of things but he knows OL play and he knows what big time QB play looks like.
And when the dust settled, Jerry gave Dak 4yrs/$160M @ $125M guaranteed.
Nice regular season QB with a very talented team. Still waiting if he becomes one who elevates his team in the playoffs.
But how has it played out? Is Dak a top ten QB or not?
since Kellen Moore of course but before that he was not. which is kind of the entire point. that's why Jerry didn't pay him 30m per year and let his rookie contract expire but then tagged him at 31m twice and ultimately extended him at 40m.
Nice regular season QB with a very talented team. Still waiting if he becomes one who elevates his team in the playoffs.
correct - after year 3 Jerry wasn't in a much different posture than Schoen right now since Dak didn't have a 5YO. They weren't sure about him even though he'd been better than Jones. They promoted Moore, modernized the offense, and Dak started throwing for 5k+ yards and then the decision was obvious.
Yep, he was a putrid 4-8 but:
- In 12 games he was sacked 38 times
- In 1/2 of those games, he was sacked 4+ times (he was under duress constantly)
- In 7 of the 12 games, the Giants RBs rushed for fewer than 55yds...that's really bad~
- The Giants averaged 24pts (w/DJ as starter) per game with very little support from the OL or the RBs
- The Giants defense gave up 28+ points per game (30th in NFL)
- During this season, he threw over 35x per game
- Since his rookie year, the NYGs have gotten worse. Maybe they get right together?
At the end of the day, the math suggests that there is something to work with.
I don't think that he'll get past 2022 with the Giants, but I am not unhappy, especially given the circumstances of the timing of the new era, that Jones will be the QB in 2022.
I think Shurmur knows how to hide a QBs flaws and get max production.
In retrospect, I think Joe Judge was way in over his head and also created a mess with offense staff. It was pretty clear to me he didn’t respect Garrett, and he filled the staff with his goofball friends.
The most optimism I can muster for Jones is he had a few big games when he played for a coach who could cover his flaws.
I don’t think that’s a championship formula, but maybe Daboll can do something similar.
Hopefully it's fun to watch.
But they are 53-32 with him at the helm. So, he's doing something right as Dallas has five winning seasons out of six with him as the starter. And that's a bit misleading because he only played five games in 2020 before he got hurt against NYG in Dallas.
He's not Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Herbert. But he's right at that top ten threshold. He makes plays and is a dual threat.
He plays on a far more talented team. You left that part out in the DJ hit piece. That is something that some of DJ critics leave out. Anyway this is a make or break year and the Giant organization owns the QB mess because they failed.
The evaluation is if he can grow to handle those type of situations at a higher cost which will make it that much harder to have a supporting team around him on offense and defense. That decision may be easy. Jones may still make it complex and they will have to measure it against getting a alternative in the draft imv.
The evaluation is if he can grow to handle those type of situations at a higher cost which will make it that much harder to have a supporting team around him on offense and defense. That decision may be easy. Jones may still make it complex and they will have to measure it against getting a alternative in the draft imv.
I agree that if he's retained as a starter he will be >$20M; but he's not making $50M and while it's great to have a Rodgers/Mahomes type of guy; you can't afford to keep your top players long term (Adams & Hill). I think what Daboll and JS are thinking is to build an offense which makes it easy on the QB. You may not need a Rodgers/Mahomes type of guy if you have enough weapons around a solid QB.
Meanwhile, Jones has never shown the ability Dak showed earlier on and the stats display that, too.
So saying Jones can “emerge” like Prescott is patent bullshit.
Now on to Kirk Cousin’s early career, which is even more damaging to the “DJ as late bloomer” thesis.
Meanwhile, Jones has never shown the ability Dak showed earlier on and the stats display that, too.
So saying Jones can “emerge” like Prescott is patent bullshit.
Now on to Kirk Cousin’s early career, which is even more damaging to the “DJ as late bloomer” thesis.
What is bullshit is not recognizing that Dallas had two future HOF OL on the team and a Center who was regarding as one of the best before injuries did him in (and potential third HOF type player). They also were above average at the other two spots on the line. Then while not what he was a HOF TE who still was a very good blocker and reliable target.
Jones his first three years had.........? I am not even the biggest Jones fan but to say he has had close to what Dak did is really short sighted imv. Dak's situation was one of the best I have seen for a QB to walk into.
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is they have to evaluate Jones as a QB who is about to become very expensive. So I expect some level of balance between coddling him along (team support) while also putting him in situations to see if he can handle more complex situations.
The evaluation is if he can grow to handle those type of situations at a higher cost which will make it that much harder to have a supporting team around him on offense and defense. That decision may be easy. Jones may still make it complex and they will have to measure it against getting a alternative in the draft imv.
I agree that if he's retained as a starter he will be >$20M; but he's not making $50M and while it's great to have a Rodgers/Mahomes type of guy; you can't afford to keep your top players long term (Adams & Hill). I think what Daboll and JS are thinking is to build an offense which makes it easy on the QB. You may not need a Rodgers/Mahomes type of guy if you have enough weapons around a solid QB.
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But I was 18 years old back then and even I knew that Giants team in 05 limped into the playoffs with big injuries.
Also not all good or even great players play well in their first ever playoffs appearances. It's a thing that people know about but choose to forget when it's convenient. Fans were more eager to be mad that they lost than deal with reality.
TTH honest question for you, in year 4 after throwing 2 touchdowns to Darren Sharper and 4 ints total, what % of the fanbase do you estimate was behind Eli?
I was at that game. I sat in the end zone 2 rows back dead center. I was pretty in line with Eli on every snap. When I was behind him I could see his helmet locking on to receivers for what seemed like forever. On two of the INT's I screamed DON'T THROW IT HE'S GONNA PICK IT!!!
I knew it was going to be a long day when Tavaris Jackson's first pass was a long bomb for a TD. Brutal day.
Tannehill will have the lowest AAV of any starting QB on a 2nd contract next year at 29.5M, and that’s an old deal at this point.
If Jones has a good year, he’s got no incentive to sign a sub-market deal.
His agent would advise him to force the Giants’ hand and get franchised, or sign a prove it deal somewhere.
Meanwhile, Jones has never shown the ability Dak showed earlier on and the stats display that, too.
So saying Jones can “emerge” like Prescott is patent bullshit.
Now on to Kirk Cousin’s early career, which is even more damaging to the “DJ as late bloomer” thesis.
what's being mischaracterized is that anyone is predicting Jones will "emerge" like prescott. what's being compared is the fact that after 3 years his own team was just as uncertain about whether or not he was worth extending - and that's not debatable. It's fact that they had a 2.5 year lame duck period from the end of the 2018 season to just last May where they made him earn an extension.
none of us can predict the future but there are some that refuse to look back at what's already happened with any degree of rationality. when Kellen Moore took over Dak's output exploded in the 2019 and 2020 seasons and after he proved it not once but twice Dallas made him a 40m/year a QB. Again that's not opinion that's just what happened.
none of that is a prediction the same will happen for Jones. it's possible to acknowledge something within a range of possibility without predicting it or even thinking it likely. schoen and daboll have put some skin in the game that it's a possibility or else jones wouldn't still be on the roster and they certainly wouldn't have already declared him starter.
could not disagree more on this. Paying the Wentz/Garoppolo/Cousins tier of QBs whatever that costs going forward ($30m?) is the equivalent of a QB sneak on 2nd down.
if they move on from Jones it will rightfully be for the best rookie they can get their hands on with traits that fit their offense. Taylor's contract indicates that's the plan B if Jones moves on.
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I agree that if he's retained as a starter he will be >$20M; but he's not making $50M and while it's great to have a Rodgers/Mahomes type of guy; you can't afford to keep your top players long term (Adams & Hill). I think what Daboll and JS are thinking is to build an offense which makes it easy on the QB. You may not need a Rodgers/Mahomes type of guy if you have enough weapons around a solid QB.
Tannehill will have the lowest AAV of any starting QB on a 2nd contract next year at 29.5M, and that’s an old deal at this point.
If Jones has a good year, he’s got no incentive to sign a sub-market deal.
His agent would advise him to force the Giants’ hand and get franchised, or sign a prove it deal somewhere.
Agreed but that was after a Pro Bowl season and a AFC Championship performance. If 2022 DJ is a Pro Bowler and leads this team to the NFC Championship Game I think we would all be on board for a 4/$120M. That's the same range as Goff, Jimmy G, Wentz, Carr, etc. He's worth nothing near that today, but if he replicated Tannehill's 2019 then his value is probably $28-30M/yr. If he has a good enough year for JS & Daboll to keep him as the starter but not a Pro Bowl or a playoff birth, I doubt he gets more than what his 5th year option would have been worth.
TTH honest question for you, in year 4 after throwing 2 touchdowns to Darren Sharper and 4 ints total, what % of the fanbase do you estimate was behind Eli?
I was at that game. I sat in the end zone 2 rows back dead center. I was pretty in line with Eli on every snap. When I was behind him I could see his helmet locking on to receivers for what seemed like forever. On two of the INT's I screamed DON'T THROW IT HE'S GONNA PICK IT!!!
I knew it was going to be a long day when Tavaris Jackson's first pass was a long bomb for a TD. Brutal day.
People forget how many brutal days there were within the first 8 years of Coughlin (even though they ended up with 2 trophies and its possibly the best 8 year stretch in franchise history). the NFL is a hard business.
I think it’s silly, but if they were to, I’d go with JG. He’s at least established a floor of winning.
In reality there are two ways to win — draft a high skill QB or acquire a top veteran.
That’s the scenario where Jones has no incentive to sign a multi-year deal at ~20M/YR. The franchise tender is ~31M, and the floor for an OK starter is 30M.
Why would he lock himself into a commitment at below market value?
I think it’s silly, but if they were to, I’d go with JG. He’s at least established a floor of winning.
In reality there are two ways to win — draft a high skill QB or acquire a top veteran.
Garoppolo is imo fool's gold. He has some games where he looks great and others where he looks incompetent. Too unpredictable. I would never want him, Wentz, or Cousins for that reason.
QBs like Carr or Tannehill or Lamar at least have things they do well consistently so you can possibly build a team in their style that emphasizes their strengths and maybe give yourself a chance to win big by wrong footing better teams if everything clicks. Kind of like Cam in Carolina and even Eli to a degree.
I think it’s silly, but if they were to, I’d go with JG. He’s at least established a floor of winning.
In reality there are two ways to win — draft a high skill QB or acquire a top veteran.
I believe we're about to see a new offensive wave in the NFL which places less emphasis on the QB. If you look at what the Dolphins and others are doing, they believe that they can have a top offense with a "system QB". Create mismatches across the field and move the ball with quick reads and misdirection to get playmakers in 1-1 situations. That doesn't mean you can win with a bad QB, but I think offenses are evolving to value playmakers near the same level as QB's. The WR goldrush in the draft & FA shows how much value executives are starting to place on playmakers; if you pay WR's this much it is inevitable that mid-tier QB's on 2nd contracts will probably be devalued.
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If he has a good enough year for JS & Daboll to keep him as the starter but not a Pro Bowl or a playoff birth, I doubt he gets more than what his 5th year option would have been worth.
That’s the scenario where Jones has no incentive to sign a multi-year deal at ~20M/YR. The franchise tender is ~31M, and the floor for an OK starter is 30M.
Why would he lock himself into a commitment at below market value?
Franchise tag is not market value - his value is based on what other teams would pay him on the open market. What teams do you see paying DJ >$25M if he has a good year next year? Seattle, NO, Steelers, Carolina? If any of those teams are in the market for a QB next offseason they'll probably look to the draft. I don't think DJ has that much leverage unless he pulls a Tannehill '19
consistent poise, decision making, escapability are going to be more in demand than some traditional traits. Call it the russell wilson-ification of the QB position. but that wont lead to the position being devalued as those players are still the difference between winning and losing.
bryce young and mac jones at bama are imo the future prototype to where things are going. on the hoof there are more "talented" players but Saban has started honing in on QBs who are elite at making the right decisions consistently and distributing the ball to their playmakers like a good basketball point guard. Prospects coming up now play 7 on 7 practically year round before HS even starts - those are the skills they are getting their 10k hours on before they get to the NFL.
Assuming Jones has a good not great season, and the Giants offer him in the range of 4/80M, he's better off:
1) hoping he gets franchised
2) signing a prove it deal elsewhere and establishing he's worth the 30M floor above average starters make
Jameis Winston, who's older and has lots of warts, off an injury signed for 14 AAV. Jones would be better going that route in his career.
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But how has it played out? Is Dak a top ten QB or not?
since Kellen Moore of course but before that he was not. which is kind of the entire point. that's why Jerry didn't pay him 30m per year and let his rookie contract expire but then tagged him at 31m twice and ultimately extended him at 40m.
Unfortunately, you don't know what you are talking about.
It was reported in multiple sources that going into the 2019 season Dak turned down the Jones's offer of $30M per because he wanted more. And that would have made him - at the time - one of the highest paid QBs at the time.
Instead, Team Dak was willing to take the FT, and gamble they could get a higher number. Which they did.
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I agree Dallas and Dak have come up short in the playoffs.
But they are 53-32 with him at the helm. So, he's doing something right as Dallas has five winning seasons out of six with him as the starter. And that's a bit misleading because he only played five games in 2020 before he got hurt against NYG in Dallas.
He's not Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Herbert. But he's right at that top ten threshold. He makes plays and is a dual threat.
He plays on a far more talented team. You left that part out in the DJ hit piece. That is something that some of DJ critics leave out. Anyway this is a make or break year and the Giant organization owns the QB mess because they failed.
You do realize these two things can be true at the same time - Dak is a talented player and he has played on a talented team.
On the end of that, a team can be poor and so can the QB.
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Franchise tag is not market value - his value is based on what other teams would pay him on the open market. What teams do you see paying DJ >$25M if he has a good year next year? Seattle, NO, Steelers, Carolina? If any of those teams are in the market for a QB next offseason they'll probably look to the draft. I don't think DJ has that much leverage unless he pulls a Tannehill '19
Assuming Jones has a good not great season, and the Giants offer him in the range of 4/80M, he's better off:
1) hoping he gets franchised
2) signing a prove it deal elsewhere and establishing he's worth the 30M floor above average starters make
Jameis Winston, who's older and has lots of warts, off an injury signed for 14 AAV. Jones would be better going that route in his career.
I agree with this. It would be in his best interest to just play on the tag or test the market off a good year then sign some precedent-setting midrange QB deal. I do think one of those funky deals with a juiced up AAV but clear outs for the team after year 1 or 2 could be in play though. He'd still be better off taking his chances on the tag or seeking out a more player friendly structure elsewhere but maybe he's sick of changing coaches and sees it in his best interest over the long term.
For DJ it should be a bird in hand is better than two in the bush. If the Giants are better and the organization is on the rise it would be prudent for DJ to stay here. 4/80M is still a great deal and gives him security and $50M or so in guarantees; why would he take a prove it deal somewhere else and leave that money on the table and enter a situation where he could revert to his play in his first three seasons.
With that said - all of this is pure speculation and I'd love to be in a situation in 2023 where BBI is debating if DJ is a $20M or a $30M QB. He needs to show a lot of improvement for the Giants to be committed past '22
From March 2020 to March 2021 Dak was on a 31.5m franchise tag and they again couldn't come to an agreement over a second full year even though Dak put up a monster year in the 2019 season - the first year with Kellen Moore. 30tds for the first time, averaged 300+ ypg for the first time, while posting his best y/a and not turning the ball over any more than previous years.
In March 2021 Dallas again tagged him for 37.7m because they had no other choice.
In May 2021 Dallas finally extended him for 4 years $160m - which was universally considered a major win for Dak because he basically broke every QB salary record even though he was coming off the broken leg because Dallas had themselves with no alternative being unable to tag him any more.
According to multiple reports Prescott will receive $126 million in guarantees. That number far surpasses Deshaun Watson’s $111.9 million guarantee and is second only to Patrick Mahomes’ $141 million. Mahomes signed a ten year contract so there is no real basis to use Mahomes as a comparison for anything...
...This contract will create a new standard in the league which is going to be the baseline used by Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Baker Mayfield if the three continue to improve next season.
In hindsight was the waiting worth it for Dallas? In light of the injury definitely not. Even with the injury probably not. Dallas’ five year commitment to Prescott will average out to about $38.3 million per season with $157.4M in guarantees. I think they would have gotten a better deal last year had they worked within the four year parameters.
Dallas waited until the last minute possible before being willing to commit to him and then over a barrel made him the highest paid player in the sport because they had no alternative.
otc on the dak extension - ( New Window )
My guess is you will cry to discredit the sources - and that's up to you - but they support my view. Dallas offered Dallas a contract, but Dak decided he was worth more and rolled the dice...
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/08/12/dak-prescott-cowboys-quarterback-turns-down-extension
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/dak-prescott-reportedly-turned-down-30-million-per-year-offer-wants-40-million-annually/
My guess is you will cry to discredit the sources - and that's up to you - but they support my view. Dallas offered Dallas a contract, but Dak decided he was worth more and rolled the dice...
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/08/12/dak-prescott-cowboys-quarterback-turns-down-extension
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/dak-prescott-reportedly-turned-down-30-million-per-year-offer-wants-40-million-annually/
not sure what i expected since it's a day that ends with a y but do you even read the articles you post?
I don't need to discredit anything because the article you linked to already did exactly that:
However, a source familiar with the negotiations told USA Today Sports' Jori Epstein that Prescott's representatives are not asking for $40 million a year, saying, "That is false."
According to Slater, this may just be negotiating tactics and if a deal gets done, the number will likely be closer to $34 to $35 million annually.
there was no 40m comp in 2019 so only an idiot would have believed that to be a legitimate vs the sources that immediately rejected it. Wentz' extension was the relevant comp and i again don't need to look for any other sources to discredit anything because it quite clearly pointed out in the other article you linked:
That was the contract the Cowboys were afraid to commit beyond, and probably rightly so pre-Kellen Moore.
as usual it's hard to follow whatever point you're even trying to make - Dak was always a franchise QB but didn't get extended because he was greedy, not because Dallas didn't think he was a franchise QB?
mine is simple - franchise qbs get extended they don't get treated like kirk cousins for 2.5 years.
And that was the purpose of the links, to show that Jones was indeed willing to pay Dak $30M+ entering 2019.
But Dak turned down Jerry and willingly accepted the FT. He was pushing Jerry around, not the other way around.
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Eric — I’m responding to the hypothetical above regarding designing a system around a middle tier QB.
I think it’s silly, but if they were to, I’d go with JG. He’s at least established a floor of winning.
In reality there are two ways to win — draft a high skill QB or acquire a top veteran.
I believe we're about to see a new offensive wave in the NFL which places less emphasis on the QB. If you look at what the Dolphins and others are doing, they believe that they can have a top offense with a "system QB". Create mismatches across the field and move the ball with quick reads and misdirection to get playmakers in 1-1 situations. That doesn't mean you can win with a bad QB, but I think offenses are evolving to value playmakers near the same level as QB's. The WR goldrush in the draft & FA shows how much value executives are starting to place on playmakers; if you pay WR's this much it is inevitable that mid-tier QB's on 2nd contracts will probably be devalued.
We'll see who's right and who is wrong in the end but I dont agree that that is where the league was heading. The Rams finally won that elusive super bowl once they realized the limitations of a QB who is a cog in the machine rather than a premium talent. I dont believe teams are going to stop chasing the unicorn at QB any time soon.
- quarterbacks holding onto the ball for as long as possible
- offensive targets getting down field as far as possible
You can't beat up the quarterback, you can't get physical with route runners before the ball gets there, and you can't punish the target when he gets the ball.
I think there's a place for quick hits and RAC, but you're playing slow pitch softball against big leaguers if you can't sit back, understand what the defense is discuising, and throw the ball down field.
It's so much damn easier to do that this era. It's a sin not to.
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...that's why Jerry didn't pay him 30m per year and let his rookie contract expire but then tagged him at 31m twice and ultimately extended him at 40m...
And that was the purpose of the links, to show that Jones was indeed willing to pay Dak $30M+ entering 2019.
But Dak turned down Jerry and willingly accepted the FT. He was pushing Jerry around, not the other way around.
like a reliable broken clock you've ended right where you began.
we don't know for a fact what Dak was offered or what he wanted in 2019 or in 2020. both in terms of AAV and guarantees.
we do know factually what the relevant comps were (wentz/wilson).
we do know factually that Dallas had to tag him twice because they couldn't agree to a deal.
we do know factually that they ended up with a contract that "for all intents and purposes makes him the highest paid player in the NFL"
we can also say factually that had they been willing to do that in either of 2019 or 2020 they would have saved themselves some money (pre Mahomes/Watson deals).
is your theory of the case that they were offering to make him the highest paid player in the sport in 2019 and 2020 and he turned them down for 2.5 years because he preferred to play on the tag at a lower AAV?
the point isn't the offers Dak turned down it's that Jerry knew the entire time exactly what it would take to lock him in but wasn't willing to do so.
- quarterbacks holding onto the ball for as long as possible
- offensive targets getting down field as far as possible
You can't beat up the quarterback, you can't get physical with route runners before the ball gets there, and you can't punish the target when he gets the ball.
I think there's a place for quick hits and RAC, but you're playing slow pitch softball against big leaguers if you can't sit back, understand what the defense is discuising, and throw the ball down field.
It's so much damn easier to do that this era. It's a sin not to.
agree - which is why you don't settle on a big multi-year contract for a qb who doesn't have the vision/poise to threaten every inch of the field on every play and extend the time defenses need to defend if necessary. Mahomes/Wilson/Burrow/Rodgers fit that description best (Brady/Stafford too just with less mobility). Herbert and Allen have physical tools beyond that list and aren't far off the other stuff if at all, while showing steady improvements each year so far. It's a pretty big drop off to the next guy after that group (not counting watson only bc it's been 2 years since he played).
that's why the Dak extension was, and the Kyler/Lamar extensions are, not easy decisions for those respective teams. the $ cost is the same as the top group despite more flaws.
i also think at some point the pendulum is going to swing with the rules and they are going to let DBs get a little more handsy because teams are only going to keep leaning into these spread concepts even beyond where they are now. The same way air raid offenses have proliferated in CFB. Daboll wasn't my first choice for coach but i do think getting an offensive mind that understands that was a key strategic win. Especially one with a track record of developing 1 of the names above.