With Daboll/Kafka adding Robinson alongside Toney...

I agree with you - but if DJ has a good enough year to prove that he's a starter in this league it likely means that the Giants have made big strides as well. The same could be said if he stinks it likely means the Giants do too.

For DJ it should be a bird in hand is better than two in the bush. If the Giants are better and the organization is on the rise it would be prudent for DJ to stay here. 4/80M is still a great deal and gives him security and $50M or so in guarantees; why would he take a prove it deal somewhere else and leave that money on the table and enter a situation where he could revert to his play in his first three seasons.

With that said - all of this is pure speculation and I'd love to be in a situation in 2023 where BBI is debating if DJ is a $20M or a $30M QB. He needs to show a lot of improvement for the Giants to be committed past '22

From March 1 2019 to March 2020 Dak was a lame duck entering the final year of a rookie deal that paid him less than $5m total. His asking price was $34m per year and quite obviously Dallas wasn't ready to commit to him because they didn't commit to him. this was the only chance to extend him with any leverage and they didn't - because they weren't sure he was a franchise QB. anything else is spin, your native language.

From March 2020 to March 2021 Dak was on a 31.5m franchise tag and they again couldn't come to an agreement over a second full year even though Dak put up a monster year in the 2019 season - the first year with Kellen Moore. 30tds for the first time, averaged 300+ ypg for the first time, while posting his best y/a and not turning the ball over any more than previous years.

In March 2021 Dallas again tagged him for 37.7m because they had no other choice.

In May 2021 Dallas finally extended him for 4 years $160m - which was universally considered a major win for Dak because he basically broke every QB salary record even though he was coming off the broken leg because Dallas had themselves with no alternative being unable to tag him any more.

Quote:

The never ending drama of the Cowboys and Dak Prescott’s contract dilemma has finally come to an end with Prescott signing a massive four year, $160 million contract that, for all intents and purposes makes him the highest paid player in the NFL. According to multiple reports Prescott will receive $126 million in guarantees. That number far surpasses Deshaun Watson’s $111.9 million guarantee and is second only to Patrick Mahomes’ $141 million. Mahomes signed a ten year contract so there is no real basis to use Mahomes as a comparison for anything... ...This contract will create a new standard in the league which is going to be the baseline used by Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Baker Mayfield if the three continue to improve next season. In hindsight was the waiting worth it for Dallas? In light of the injury definitely not. Even with the injury probably not. Dallas’ five year commitment to Prescott will average out to about $38.3 million per season with $157.4M in guarantees. I think they would have gotten a better deal last year had they worked within the four year parameters.

Dallas waited until the last minute possible before being willing to commit to him and then over a barrel made him the highest paid player in the sport because they had no alternative.
otc on the dak extension - ( New Window )

in 2019, before the 2019 season starts (so after 2018, Dak's third year), where Dak turns down the Dallas offer.

My guess is you will cry to discredit the sources - and that's up to you - but they support my view. Dallas offered Dallas a contract, but Dak decided he was worth more and rolled the dice...

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/08/12/dak-prescott-cowboys-quarterback-turns-down-extension

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/dak-prescott-reportedly-turned-down-30-million-per-year-offer-wants-40-million-annually/

In comment 15707804 bw in dc said:

Quote:

in 2019, before the 2019 season starts (so after 2018, Dak's third year), where Dak turns down the Dallas offer. My guess is you will cry to discredit the sources - and that's up to you - but they support my view. Dallas offered Dallas a contract, but Dak decided he was worth more and rolled the dice... https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/08/12/dak-prescott-cowboys-quarterback-turns-down-extension https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/dak-prescott-reportedly-turned-down-30-million-per-year-offer-wants-40-million-annually/

not sure what i expected since it's a day that ends with a y but do you even read the articles you post?

I don't need to discredit anything because the article you linked to already did exactly that:

Quote:

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has turned down a $30 million a year offer and is instead seeking $40 million a year, reports NFL Network's Jane Slater. However, a source familiar with the negotiations told USA Today Sports' Jori Epstein that Prescott's representatives are not asking for $40 million a year, saying, "That is false." According to Slater, this may just be negotiating tactics and if a deal gets done, the number will likely be closer to $34 to $35 million annually.

there was no 40m comp in 2019 so only an idiot would have believed that to be a legitimate vs the sources that immediately rejected it. Wentz' extension was the relevant comp and i again don't need to look for any other sources to discredit anything because it quite clearly pointed out in the other article you linked:

Quote:

In April, the Seattle Seahawks reset the QB market by awarding Russell Wilson a historic four-year, $140 million extension that includes $107 million in guaranteed money and, two months later, the Philadelphia Eagles raised the floor by granting Carson Wentz a four-year, $128 million extension that quietly exceeds Wilson's guaranteed metric with $107.87 million. That realistically puts the window for negotiation between $32 million AAS (average annual salary) and $35 million AAS, because Prescott isn't apt to accept less money than Wentz, and for good reason.

That was the contract the Cowboys were afraid to commit beyond, and probably rightly so pre-Kellen Moore.

as usual it's hard to follow whatever point you're even trying to make - Dak was always a franchise QB but didn't get extended because he was greedy, not because Dallas didn't think he was a franchise QB?

mine is simple - franchise qbs get extended they don't get treated like kirk cousins for 2.5 years.

But for the final time, Dallas was proactively courting Dak with a contract offer of $30M per leading into 2019. Which completely contradicts your risible comment earlier:

Quote:

...that's why Jerry didn't pay him 30m per year and let his rookie contract expire but then tagged him at 31m twice and ultimately extended him at 40m...

And that was the purpose of the links, to show that Jones was indeed willing to pay Dak $30M+ entering 2019.

But Dak turned down Jerry and willingly accepted the FT. He was pushing Jerry around, not the other way around.

In comment 15707427 csb said:

Quote:

In comment 15707413 christian said: Quote: Eric — I’m responding to the hypothetical above regarding designing a system around a middle tier QB. I think it’s silly, but if they were to, I’d go with JG. He’s at least established a floor of winning. In reality there are two ways to win — draft a high skill QB or acquire a top veteran. I believe we're about to see a new offensive wave in the NFL which places less emphasis on the QB. If you look at what the Dolphins and others are doing, they believe that they can have a top offense with a "system QB". Create mismatches across the field and move the ball with quick reads and misdirection to get playmakers in 1-1 situations. That doesn't mean you can win with a bad QB, but I think offenses are evolving to value playmakers near the same level as QB's. The WR goldrush in the draft & FA shows how much value executives are starting to place on playmakers; if you pay WR's this much it is inevitable that mid-tier QB's on 2nd contracts will probably be devalued.

We'll see who's right and who is wrong in the end but I dont agree that that is where the league was heading. The Rams finally won that elusive super bowl once they realized the limitations of a QB who is a cog in the machine rather than a premium talent. I dont believe teams are going to stop chasing the unicorn at QB any time soon.

Virtually every change in the game this century has incentivized:.

- quarterbacks holding onto the ball for as long as possible
- offensive targets getting down field as far as possible

You can't beat up the quarterback, you can't get physical with route runners before the ball gets there, and you can't punish the target when he gets the ball.

I think there's a place for quick hits and RAC, but you're playing slow pitch softball against big leaguers if you can't sit back, understand what the defense is discuising, and throw the ball down field.

It's so much damn easier to do that this era. It's a sin not to.

In comment 15707907 bw in dc said:

Quote:

But for the final time, Dallas was proactively courting Dak with a contract offer of $30M per leading into 2019. Which completely contradicts your risible comment earlier: Quote: ...that's why Jerry didn't pay him 30m per year and let his rookie contract expire but then tagged him at 31m twice and ultimately extended him at 40m... And that was the purpose of the links, to show that Jones was indeed willing to pay Dak $30M+ entering 2019. But Dak turned down Jerry and willingly accepted the FT. He was pushing Jerry around, not the other way around.

like a reliable broken clock you've ended right where you began.

we don't know for a fact what Dak was offered or what he wanted in 2019 or in 2020. both in terms of AAV and guarantees.

we do know factually what the relevant comps were (wentz/wilson).
we do know factually that Dallas had to tag him twice because they couldn't agree to a deal.
we do know factually that they ended up with a contract that "for all intents and purposes makes him the highest paid player in the NFL"
we can also say factually that had they been willing to do that in either of 2019 or 2020 they would have saved themselves some money (pre Mahomes/Watson deals).

is your theory of the case that they were offering to make him the highest paid player in the sport in 2019 and 2020 and he turned them down for 2.5 years because he preferred to play on the tag at a lower AAV?

the point isn't the offers Dak turned down it's that Jerry knew the entire time exactly what it would take to lock him in but wasn't willing to do so.

In comment 15708010 christian said:

Quote:

Virtually every change in the game this century has incentivized:. - quarterbacks holding onto the ball for as long as possible - offensive targets getting down field as far as possible You can't beat up the quarterback, you can't get physical with route runners before the ball gets there, and you can't punish the target when he gets the ball. I think there's a place for quick hits and RAC, but you're playing slow pitch softball against big leaguers if you can't sit back, understand what the defense is discuising, and throw the ball down field. It's so much damn easier to do that this era. It's a sin not to.

agree - which is why you don't settle on a big multi-year contract for a qb who doesn't have the vision/poise to threaten every inch of the field on every play and extend the time defenses need to defend if necessary. Mahomes/Wilson/Burrow/Rodgers fit that description best (Brady/Stafford too just with less mobility). Herbert and Allen have physical tools beyond that list and aren't far off the other stuff if at all, while showing steady improvements each year so far. It's a pretty big drop off to the next guy after that group (not counting watson only bc it's been 2 years since he played).

that's why the Dak extension was, and the Kyler/Lamar extensions are, not easy decisions for those respective teams. the $ cost is the same as the top group despite more flaws.

i also think at some point the pendulum is going to swing with the rules and they are going to let DBs get a little more handsy because teams are only going to keep leaning into these spread concepts even beyond where they are now. The same way air raid offenses have proliferated in CFB. Daboll wasn't my first choice for coach but i do think getting an offensive mind that understands that was a key strategic win. Especially one with a track record of developing 1 of the names above.