If Daniel Jones posts similar numbers to his rookie season?

fumbles is he going to have?

The INT's don't bother me so much as the fumbles especially if the INT's are due to pushing the ball downfield. When you fumble you are likely giving your opponent the ball in better field position than if you threw an INT.

I've said it many times, the 2nd contract will be too high to commit to barring anything short of an other worldly season.

I've said it many times, the 2nd contract will be too high to commit to barring anything short of an other worldly season.

Won't be on a rookie contract anymore. Need a lot more proof to give him a big contract.

similar to his rookie year we will be in the plus win column.

chances are he will have us in the playoffs. At that point you have to seriously consider extending him IMO. Shurmur’s offense was very DJ friendly and hopefully Kafka and Daboll’s will be as well. If he can show dependability and stay on the field, then I think the results will come this year.

with a better OLine and 4 years of NFL experience. Still, I’d be wary making a big commitment to a guy who hasn’t shown he can stay on the field.

That is making the assumption that he doesn't get hurt, which has been a problem.

There are three types of QBs in the NFL:

Type 1. A guy you're confident can be a big reason you win the Super Bowl. You're happy to pay him $30M+ a year.
Type 2. A young guy (year 1 or 2) you're hoping becomes a Type 1.
Type 3. Everybody else.

Fork in the road time for Jones. He has to be awesome this year to elevate to Type 1. The excuses and rationalizations have to end.

TDs? IIRC, it was quite a few. His rookie stats were inflated by like three games where he threw 4-5 TDs a game.

Also, it is disingenuous to prorate his rookie season as if he didn't miss those games with injury. Jones has missed multiple games with injury every year, and in each instance he rushed to get back on the field before he was healthy and looked like dog shit the next game or two.

The missed time and ineffectiveness due to injury can't be discounted or waved away, it's part of who he is

difficult, is because this will only have been a 1 year sample size. It won’t be a great indicator of things to come because he’s been so inconsistent. I’m sure the Giants would tag him, but I’m not sure it’s the right move. It’s why the rookie contract is so valuable, and the Giants already wasted it.

Than those stats prorated for 17 games if healthy. Half of Barkley's rushing production will be converted to short passes. I want express how simple this offense is to execute. Instead of going through complicated reads this is going to be about touch and timing. How accurately can he float a 7 yard pass that is catchable and puts the receiver in position to make a play. This offense will not work without plus accuracy on short passes. They have to able to get YAC. Completely different QB skill set. Be prepared for Jones to be more successful in this system. It won't mean he will wear a gold jacket some day but he will look a lot more like Kirk Cousins in 2022.

and then if he does it again, long term extension

for a job and see if he can continue to improve. A one year, $10M contract. If he is looking for something more, I let him walk.

The Giants can't evaluate Daniel Jones on a single year of his four year career, especially if this year is an outlier. The only way I offer him a long term deal after this year is if he is consistently excellent week to week all year and avoids injuries. Then we can suggest he has turned a corner. A nice uptick in his stats should not induce the Giants to overpay for a QB whose career to date has been mediocre.

In comment 15710312 Ben in Tampa said:

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and then if he does it again, long term extension

No way in Hell I commit $30M for him for another prove it season.

You don't find answers to those questions on the back of the player's football card.

In comment 15710312 Ben in Tampa said:

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and then if he does it again, long term extension

Yeah, everyone just assumes that a good season = big payday but the tag is there, and so is a longer term extension without the big guaranteed money (see Jimmy Garoppolo's contract structure, but likely less, IMO).

The Giants hold all the cards with Jones no matter what he does in 2022. He can throw 50 TD's and at the very least we can make him duplicate that before committing to him.

But there's more than that. He'd also have to cut down on the fumbles from that year, he's gotten better but he still isn't good.

More importantly, he needs to show everyone he can be relied upon to start 17 games. You can't allocate big $$ to a part time QB.

Make Jones produce for 2 years in Coach Brian Daboll's offense before getting a big payday.

Especially if the Giants improve enough to not have a Top 10 draft pick in 2023 and select one of the top prospects.

His rookie season was his best season, and even those numbers are inflated by a 5 TD game against the lions and other situations where he torched bad teams but didn't make a difference against good teams.

I look at Jones' rookie season not as a goal, because that QB isn't a franchise guy. His rookie season is the benchmark for reason to be optimistic.

Plus fumbles, that's still a LOT of turnovers. I'd be hesitant to keep him at that point, particularly because Baker Mayfield will likely be available on the open market, and I prefer Mayfield to Jones.

I think he has to top the prorated rookie season while getting the fumbles down to 2021 levels. So with that many turnovers, I wouldn't keep him.

In comment 15710312 Ben in Tampa said:

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and then if he does it again, long term extension

Yep, it s really not that complicated

Look out your window, pigs are gonna' fly.

In comment 15710322 UConn4523 said:

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In comment 15710312 Ben in Tampa said: Quote: and then if he does it again, long term extension Yeah, everyone just assumes that a good season = big payday but the tag is there, and so is a longer term extension without the big guaranteed money (see Jimmy Garoppolo's contract structure, but likely less, IMO). The Giants hold all the cards with Jones no matter what he does in 2022. He can throw 50 TD's and at the very least we can make him duplicate that before committing to him.

Not really. The franchise tag will be over $30M. That's guaranteed and a big cap committment.

Jones Passer Rating: 87.7
NFL Avg. Passer Rating: 90.4

Jones A/YA: 6.46
NFL Avg. A/YA: 7.1

# of games where Jones exceeded NFL Avg. Passer Rating: 4
# of games where Jones exceeded NFL Avg. A/YA: 4

Jones's entire reputation is basically built on 4 games in 2019. Those 4 games were against:

Tampa: 29th ranked defense
Detroit: 26th ranked defense
Jets: 16th ranked defense
Washington: 27th ranked defense, with an interim coach in week 16

The game log speaks for itself.

moratorium on Jones threads until training camp. THere's nothing left to say until he plays.

It was reason for optimism and provided a certain expectation for improvement. He not only didn't improve, but regressed. His rookie year replicated in year 4 is not a reason to commit money or time.

In comment 15710367 Victor in CT said:

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moratorium on Jones threads until training camp. THere's nothing left to say until he plays.

So don't open the thread.

In comment 15710369 Matt M. said:

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It was reason for optimism and provided a certain expectation for improvement. He not only didn't improve, but regressed. His rookie year replicated in year 4 is not a reason to commit money or time.

in fairness, the judge/garrett/kitchens offense was the worst thing anyone had seen in a long time so to some extent i understand the jones optimists.

my bigger concern, other than the continued lack of pocket presence, is that he is a lock to miss games with some injury every year. simply put, he is injury prone, and his injuries have all resulted from being careless while running the ball.

it is hard to see his brain improving in this regard. he really seems to lack basic football instincts.

In comment 15710367 Victor in CT said:

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moratorium on Jones threads until training camp. THere's nothing left to say until he plays.

BBI Corner Forum is a New York Giants Discussion Board. No matter how many times you're tired of reading Daniel Jones threads, you're proposal is to discontinue conversations about the team's Starting QB for a 4 month period?

I think this is more of your issue and if you see Daniel Jones in the Thread Title, just skip it and move onto the next thread.

The question: Is Daniel Jones "The Guy"? or just another journeyman QB that will bounce around to different teams holding a clipboard until he disappears into obscurity?

I haven't see anything that tells me he is "The Guy". I saw a lot of play over the last few years that left me feeling he is an average QB with average skills.

But it is hard to find those guys like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc. We could be searching for decades.

In comment 15710384 japanhead said:

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In comment 15710369 Matt M. said: Quote: It was reason for optimism and provided a certain expectation for improvement. He not only didn't improve, but regressed. His rookie year replicated in year 4 is not a reason to commit money or time. in fairness, the judge/garrett/kitchens offense was the worst thing anyone had seen in a long time so to some extent i understand the jones optimists. my bigger concern, other than the continued lack of pocket presence, is that he is a lock to miss games with some injury every year. simply put, he is injury prone, and his injuries have all resulted from being careless while running the ball. it is hard to see his brain improving in this regard. he really seems to lack basic football instincts.

Agree about the offense. I also think he still has the skill to be a decent NFL QB. However, I do not think that is enough for the Giants to tag him or commit to a 2nd contract. A #6 pick going into FA for the first time is going to get paid. It shouldn't be by us.

Even considering the offensive system, coaching, and personnel deficiencies, he leaves a lot to be desired after 3 years. A couple of flashes have been overshadowed by poor pocket awareness and presence, inability to read defenses, pre-snap, in ability to read defenses with the ball, and his one big plus as a rookie seems to have been diminished (that would be nice deep balls). Throw in injuries and bad decision making leading to some injuries, and I just think there are too many reasons for us to not go with him. Let someone else pay him and if he improves, good for him and them.

and throw over 30 TDs and over 4000 yards he'll probably be starting for some NFL team in 2023 whether it's the Giants or not it's too soon to tell IMO.

The new GM paid a backup QB he knows pretty well at the top of that pay scale to have him under contract for 2023. That's not a coincidence IMO. That's setting up for a rookie to learn how to be a professional QB while he waits his turn. I think that's plan A.

I think plan B is a 2nd contract for Jones if he makes the Giants an offer they can't refuse by turning into a top 10 QB. That seems like a long shot.

... even without the huge fumble numbers, then your options are:

1) He signs a modest 2 year extension
2) We go a different direction at QB

I wouldn't want him on the franchise tag.

but not well enough for a level-headed franchise to want to re-sign him to good starter money.

That said, what do the Giants do? Ownership has mostly remained out of the way but its no secret Mara likes Jones.

We should know better than to plan Daniel Jones coming out party in the preseason, but a revamped offensive line anchored by Thomas + Wandale + Daboll Kafka? I fully expect him to be better than the last two years. If he's not, it's a no brainer what to do next offseason.

.

Redskins didn't know if Cousins was a franchise QB, so they Franchise Tagged him for both 2016 and 2017.

Still not convinced, the Redskins let Cousins walk in 2018.

In comment 15710367 Victor in CT said:

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moratorium on Jones threads until training camp. THere's nothing left to say until he plays.

I got sick of seeing Dunking Donuts on every corner in town, so naturally I started going into everyone and screaming about how they should be closed because who needs that many Dunkin Donuts?

In comment 15710360 Matt M. said:

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In comment 15710322 UConn4523 said: Quote: In comment 15710312 Ben in Tampa said: Quote: and then if he does it again, long term extension Yeah, everyone just assumes that a good season = big payday but the tag is there, and so is a longer term extension without the big guaranteed money (see Jimmy Garoppolo's contract structure, but likely less, IMO). The Giants hold all the cards with Jones no matter what he does in 2022. He can throw 50 TD's and at the very least we can make him duplicate that before committing to him. Not really. The franchise tag will be over $30M. That's guaranteed and a big cap committment.

Yes really. If he’s good enough this year to warrant extension talks then the Tag is a fine fallback option and bargaining chip. If he’s mediocre he won’t command a big contract.

I’m fairly certain if he plays 17 games and only totals 25 scores, we won’t want him back at all, fans or the staff. In which case the Tag isn’t even a consideration.

In comment 15710410 NYG27 said:

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Redskins didn't know if Cousins was a franchise QB, so they Franchise Tagged him for both 2016 and 2017. Still not convinced, the Redskins let Cousins walk in 2018.

No, mainly because Kirk never struggled to score for 2 full years so there was always upside to chase, he just didn’t unlock it in Washington for a number of reasons.

I don’t see any comps with Jones. Add in that our GM wasn’t true one who picked him and I just don’t see how he’s our 2023 QB outside of some insanely productive season to warrant getting tagged.

About yards, TDs, INTs in isolation. Those numbers can be compromised by garbage time or a couple of great games. Can he consistently lead the team to victory or at least minimize mistakes? Does he make the clutch plays and correct reads?

The Giants, with 54M in cap space next year, will give Daniel Jones 31.5M, and that's they easy answer?

In comment 15710433 Les in TO said:

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About yards, TDs, INTs in isolation. Those numbers can be compromised by garbage time or a couple of great games. Can he consistently lead the team to victory or at least minimize mistakes? Does he make the clutch plays and correct reads?

No to all of the above. Why are we still wasting time? These were all questions we had going into 2020 ... 2021.

Clutch plays? He does the complete opposite of that.

In comment 15710433 Les in TO said:

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About yards, TDs, INTs in isolation. Those numbers can be compromised by garbage time or a couple of great games. Can he consistently lead the team to victory or at least minimize mistakes? Does he make the clutch plays and correct reads?

This^ I am fairly positive he will compile stats. Can he return serve against a great QB in the 4th. Does he rise or fold when the stakes rise? Going to have to dig deep into efficiency because the the TDs and yards are going to there. BBI is going to be a war zone in 2022. Daniel will open next year with 300yds and 3-4 TD game and in 1 game all that happened in 3 years will be erased for many. Nutso.

He's going into his 4th year ...

The only question that should be asked here is ...

Why are we asking questions? You should know the type of QB he is by now. You shouldn't have to watch another season of him to figure him out.

In comment 15710270 Bill in UT said:

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fumbles is he going to have?

He had .66 fumbles a game last year and lost one every 5.5 games. In 2020 he had .7 fumbles a game and lost one every 4.7 games.

Last year he had 7 INTs and 7 fumbles (2 lost) in 11 games for 9 turnovers. Three of the INTs and 2 fumbles (one lost) were in the Rams game, a week after he went into the concussion protocol. That's 5 out of the 14 total INTs and fumbles in a game he probably shouldn't have played in.

In the other 10 games he had a total of 4 INTs and 5 fumbles (1 lost). That's five turnovers in 10 games. Ignore the post-concussion game and it translates to 6 or 7 INTs and 7 or 8 fumbles (impossible to know how many would be lost) in 17 games. Include the Rams game and it's 11 INTs and 11 fumbles in 17 games. He had 2 turnovers in only one game (TB) other than the Rams game last year.

The unknown part of the equation is how the new offensive scheme (and line) will effect these numbers.

and since I take it they didn't like the QB prospects this year, they feel he's atleast a better option. They will see what they can do with him in 2022 and then go from there. Fairly straight forward and simple.

In comment 15710462 Route 9 said:

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Why are we asking questions? You should know the type of QB he is by now. You shouldn't have to watch another season of him to figure him out.

Did we know what type of QB Phil Simms was heading into the 1984 season? Where Simms only won 14 games as the starter and only had 39 TDs in that span from 1979 to 1983.

Who knows if Daniel Jones will perform or not this year. Giants were one of the worst teams in the NFL from 2019 to 2021, so it's tough to say it was all on Jones's shoulders to lift up a team that bad.

Although I do believe Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll have made enough improvements this year, that we can finally get a good sample size if the kid can play or not.

In comment 15710492 NYG27 said:

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In comment 15710462 Route 9 said: Quote: Why are we asking questions? You should know the type of QB he is by now. You shouldn't have to watch another season of him to figure him out. Did we know what type of QB Phil Simms was heading into the 1984 season? Where Simms only won 14 games as the starter and only had 39 TDs in that span from 1979 to 1983. Who knows if Daniel Jones will perform or not this year. Giants were one of the worst teams in the NFL from 2019 to 2021, so it's tough to say it was all on Jones's shoulders to lift up a team that bad. Although I do believe Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll have made enough improvements this year, that we can finally get a good sample size if the kid can play or not.

Football just isn't set up for a QB to have Phil Simms' development timeline anymore.

In comment 15710518 FStubbs said:

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In comment 15710492 NYG27 said: Quote: In comment 15710462 Route 9 said: Quote: Why are we asking questions? You should know the type of QB he is by now. You shouldn't have to watch another season of him to figure him out. Did we know what type of QB Phil Simms was heading into the 1984 season? Where Simms only won 14 games as the starter and only had 39 TDs in that span from 1979 to 1983. Who knows if Daniel Jones will perform or not this year. Giants were one of the worst teams in the NFL from 2019 to 2021, so it's tough to say it was all on Jones's shoulders to lift up a team that bad. Although I do believe Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll have made enough improvements this year, that we can finally get a good sample size if the kid can play or not. Football just isn't set up for a QB to have Phil Simms' development timeline anymore.

It's not just the development timeline. It is the finances of the game.