...for the Mets to stop this "Whoa is me" or "poor us" and win despite these injuries. As a fan, I am tired of it and if we can get through this, we'll be a better team for it.
Carrasco, Walker, Peterson...? If Megill can get back quickly, he'd only miss 2 more turns I would think...then you're ok I guess for awhile. But obviously this rotation can't withstand more bad news without some kind of move, which may happen now anyway.
But look. $43 million per year for this year and two more following, and he's 37 right now.
I know he's Scherzer, but I thought at the time it's a lot of money for a 37 year old, even though he's a 3x Cy Young Award winner.
The only silver-lining is this doesn't have anything to do with his arm, so maybe the fact that he and deGrom will really have low innings on them may be good for September and October baseball.
The bats are probably going to need to carry this team for the next few weeks.
Carrasco - Bassitt - Walker - Peterson - Williams is a big league rotation and hopefully Megill isn't too far off.
they do need to make sure they are giving themselves an option or 2 behind that group so they don't get eickhoff'd again.
also there's a silver lining here that JDG and Scherzer are now likely to save 10-20 starts, 75-100 innings, and 1000-2000 pitches on their arms this year in missed time.
on any 1 pitch any player can do what Scherzer did yesterday so better to have it happen now then later. Hopefully both can build up in August/September to be ready for October.
it's a good thing they have a 6 game lead in the division
Rest of the division stinks. Braves pitching has been disappointing and Acuna and Albies are off to very slow starts. Phillies have no bullpen or timely hitting. Its basically the Bryce Harper lineup.
Bassit probably the best, but he's not an ace, Carasco is inconsistent as is Walker, and Peterson is in the minors and doesn't have a great MLB track record.
not saying panic, but this 6 game led could be gone in two weeks and if nothing else it will speed up the decline
rotation after a month or two. Bats and bullpen are going to have to step up.
When your team signs/relies on pitchers that are older and pitchers that are coming off of injury...nobody should be surprised that the Mets find themselves in this situation.
they don't need to trade assets for a long term solution.
ideally there's someone with a $2-5m contract who a team would be happy to offload.
Mike Minor has been hurt to start the year and doesn't fit that description, but he can flex to the BP. He's making rehab starts but the Reds have enough SP options right now it's not obvious that they need his $9m. He's been a good targets for the mets for like 5 years running.
my God, the pitching depth in the upper minors is dreadful. We all knew that, but there are just no options. Montgomery is getting rocked in AAA. Best next option may be Butto in AA
Bassit probably the best, but he's not an ace, Carasco is inconsistent as is Walker, and Peterson is in the minors and doesn't have a great MLB track record.
not saying panic, but this 6 game led could be gone in two weeks and if nothing else it will speed up the decline
that's easily a rotation that you can go .500 with. They are 11 games over .500. Oakland won 86 games last year with Bassitt as their top pitcher. They can't win a WS with this rotation but they can easily go .500 for a few months waiting for JDG/Scherzer to get back.
They need Bassitt/Carrasco to keep doing what they've been doing. they've both pitched close to the same level as scherzer and that needs to continue. this would be a great 2 months for Walker to pitch like he did last year first half even if he tanks again after that.
RE: looking at the Mets organizational depth chart
my God, the pitching depth in the upper minors is dreadful. We all knew that, but there are just no options. Montgomery is getting rocked in AAA. Best next option may be Butto in AA
this is where trading dom for someone like paddack (i know he's hurt now so not him but someone like him) made a lot of sense before ST when they could have then signed a bat for DH.
not sure there's good value for dom right now and also not sure the mets can afford to take a talented lefty hitter out of the mix. so i think now is the time to eat some $ and just take on a contract.
my God, the pitching depth in the upper minors is dreadful. We all knew that, but there are just no options. Montgomery is getting rocked in AAA. Best next option may be Butto in AA
this is where trading dom for someone like paddack (i know he's hurt now so not him but someone like him) made a lot of sense before ST when they could have then signed a bat for DH.
not sure there's good value for dom right now and also not sure the mets can afford to take a talented lefty hitter out of the mix. so i think now is the time to eat some $ and just take on a contract.
Someone like Paddack, maybe. But not Paddack. I was glad they passed on that deal, and am elated now.
Mets up 5-3. Phillies down 2 runs. Would be nice if those scores hold, to up the division lead to 7.
Bats will need to continue raking, and the bullpen will be key. They've fortunately had some young guys emerging there: beyond Smith, they've had some younger guys show some stuff in Medina, Holderman, and Reed.
Bassit probably the best, but he's not an ace, Carasco is inconsistent as is Walker, and Peterson is in the minors and doesn't have a great MLB track record.
not saying panic, but this 6 game led could be gone in two weeks and if nothing else it will speed up the decline
that's easily a rotation that you can go .500 with. They are 11 games over .500. Oakland won 86 games last year with Bassitt as their top pitcher. They can't win a WS with this rotation but they can easily go .500 for a few months waiting for JDG/Scherzer to get back.
They need Bassitt/Carrasco to keep doing what they've been doing. they've both pitched close to the same level as scherzer and that needs to continue. this would be a great 2 months for Walker to pitch like he did last year first half even if he tanks again after that.
Best case.
But if you look at OAK rotation last year they were all pretty good.
so far 2022 hasn't been this bad, but you may not recall how bad Walker was 2nd half, and Carrasco awful. Peterson was brutal too.
and has pitched like the player he'd been prior, which was one of the more consistent in baseball. Could they get bad luck at the wrong time? Sure. We know that. But as of right now he's the 24th most productive starter in MLB. Bassitt was 28th heading into today and will likely leapfrog.
Losing Scherzer definitely isn't nothing but we are talking about missing 10-15 starts with a replacement who hasn't been too bad when they are currently 11 over .500.
mcneil's versatility might make him the most underrated player in mlb
he is the new zobrist in every respect just a little better at making contact and a little worse at drawing walks.
he's an overrager and still a few years from FA but it may be worth buying out 1 or 2 years of FA. he's a guy in a situation that can't really afford to not listen even on a team friendly deal.
are pitching better than last year, but this is almost identical to losing deGrom last year when Syndergaard was out for the year and being left with 3 - 5 in your rotation plus spare parts.
with deGrom playing the part of Syndergaard and Scherzer playing the part of deGrom, lol.
every pitcher now moves up a notch in terms of expectations and they were already up a notch.
again I'm not saying throw in the towel, I would just lower your expectations and I hope the team does not get desperate.
are pitching better than last year, but this is almost identical to losing deGrom last year when Syndergaard was out for the year and being left with 3 - 5 in your rotation plus spare parts.
with deGrom playing the part of Syndergaard and Scherzer playing the part of deGrom, lol.
every pitcher now moves up a notch in terms of expectations and they were already up a notch.
again I'm not saying throw in the towel, I would just lower your expectations and I hope the team does not get desperate.
as long as they can keep things such that nobody ever plays the part of eickhoff things should be ok.
if jdg/scherzer don't come back at all then they aren't going anywhere anyway.
did anyone else just think pujols hit that to the upper deck?
Reality with the dumb Baez trade last year we don’t have a ton of assets to move and we need to probably save some of those bullets for a bat and BP arm. Then again if dick mountain is around
Absolutely LOVE Joey Votto but he's been so bad this year that taking on the remainder of his 2022 25, + 2023 25, + 7 million in 2024 doesn't seem realistic. I don't think paying Cano 40 and then Votto potentially being Cano 2.0 is something even Cohen would be willing to do.
Absolutely LOVE Joey Votto but he's been so bad this year that taking on the remainder of his 2022 25, + 2023 25, + 7 million in 2024 doesn't seem realistic. I don't think paying Cano 40 and then Votto potentially being Cano 2.0 is something even Cohen would be willing to do.
Add on a lux tax and that’s a huge $$$ bill. Can’t think of another way to get a good SP without giving up prospects though.
order of business for me would be call Boston about JDM/Eovaldi (struggles and all) and Rich Hill. I'd also shop Dom hard. If he's not getting a start against a righty (even with Hudson's decent numbers vs. lefties this year)... he has zero value to this team.
that's decent. not great but decent. 14 starts the last 2 years, xera/fip/xfip all just above 4. that's close to replacement level and he's pitched out of the pen. as far as street free agents go they could have done worse. he didnt have enough sample size for savant #s in 2021 but his 2020 page looks decent. above average exit velocity. 95th percentile+ curve spin each of the past 2 years. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trevor-cahill-502239?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb - ( New Window )
minor has starter/reliever flex, doesn't walk guys which is the #1 thing i look for in a reliever, and the last time he was a reliever full time he was elite (KC in 2017). 1.5 years under contract.
winker we know. he's struggled so far this year but he's the lefty that will make opposing managers think twice about sending righties up for Alonso. For a power hitter he makes good contact and doesn't K too much. and it would keep him from hitting big homers against us late in games. it is meant to be. also 1.5 years left.
and Quintana stand out, and as I said I'd take back Eovaldi's remaining money pretty easily if it meant adding Hill on the "cheap". 17 million this year, 3.34 xFIP. Maybe he's shot but the cost likely won't be high. No real downside.
is my #1 offensive target. I've seen enough of Dom and I've seen enough of JDD swinging through anything resembling a good FB. Dom may end up somewhere like Oakland and end up a good MLB regular but JDD reminds me of a dime a dozen "should be better than he is" type.
he's cheap and pitching well. he'll have some kind of rental market.
so just depends on which player in the top 10-30 of the system it costs. Junior Santos or Carlos Cortes? Probably a yes. Definitely not giving up a Hamel/Butto/Ziegler/Dominguez/Vasil though.
seeing Kelenic struggle so much and by the way no one commented on how cold-hearted it was for Seattle to send him down to the minors the day before the Mets series. If there was ever a way to get a player to breakout it's by facing his "former" team.
but why do I feel like we're about to see a trade of one of Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos, or Ramirez for an underwhelming return.
like Carlos Dominguez but the Mets would move him tomorrow for a guy like Quintana. Dominguez is 23 in October with an .847 OPS in A-ball and 40% k rate, not a type. 40% of his PA's have resulted in K's. His power is impressive but that's a no-brainer for a legit rotation piece, rental or not.
seeing Kelenic struggle so much and by the way no one commented on how cold-hearted it was for Seattle to send him down to the minors the day before the Mets series. If there was ever a way to get a player to breakout it's by facing his "former" team.
but why do I feel like we're about to see a trade of one of Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos, or Ramirez for an underwhelming return.
honestly there aren't any rentals worth that kind of concern from anyone so i doubt it. Wilson Contreras and Benintendi are probably closest.
Quintana is actually 1 of the better pitchers not on a team in 1st place (Gray, Bassitt, Manaea, Musgrove aren't going to be on the market). That's why i doubt he's cheap to pick up since he's also cheap.
so the only guys i see them giving up 1 of those guys for are pitchers like Montas or Castillo who have 1.5 years of control left. i could see that, especially if the health of JDG or Scherzer is looking shaky and they are still in first place. Those guys aren't getting any younger so they will need to add top end pitching somehow and trading a Mauricio may be the only way.
like Carlos Dominguez but the Mets would move him tomorrow for a guy like Quintana. Dominguez is 23 in October with an .847 OPS in A-ball and 40% k rate, not a type. 40% of his PA's have resulted in K's. His power is impressive but that's a no-brainer for a legit rotation piece, rental or not.
i meant robert are you not putting him in that range? i just quickly glanced pipeline which still has him 18th which is low but i guess placement for everyone after #7 is arguable.
like Carlos Dominguez but the Mets would move him tomorrow for a guy like Quintana. Dominguez is 23 in October with an .847 OPS in A-ball and 40% k rate, not a type. 40% of his PA's have resulted in K's. His power is impressive but that's a no-brainer for a legit rotation piece, rental or not.
i meant robert are you not putting him in that range? i just quickly glanced pipeline which still has him 18th which is low but i guess placement for everyone after #7 is arguable.
Robert Dominguez had arm surgery in the off-season and has now thrown 12 (poor) innings in his career despite the fact he'll be 21 in November. He always had severe RP risk. Keith Law had him 17th in the system BEFORE the surgery news.
"17. Robert Dominguez, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-5 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Dominguez is a big 6-5 right-hander who sits 97 mph and touches 99 mph with a so-so breaking ball that gets slurvy but could end up a 50-55 for him. His changeup is well below-average, though, and he might end up a power reliever between that and his fastball command, which isn’t where you’d like it to be for a 20-year-old."
Would I love dealing him for a Jose Quintana? Not so much but I also wouldn't be that upset.
PCA trade was moronic but I have close to zero concern they do anything that stupid this year.
passing on baez once again looking smart too. hasn't done anything since the big first week.
I've never been a huge Baez guy to begin with. Extremely exciting but also very frustrating. The idiocy was giving up such a decent prospect for a rental WHEN it was clear said rental wasn't going to cure what illed. If the Mets are "one" piece away from being WS contenders at the deadline and trade their 5th best prospect for say.. a healthy Chris Sale or a completely not happening but too lazy to look up pending FA SP a healthy Clayton Kershaw, so be it.
i just wouldn't be in a rush to trade any still young prospect with upside for a guy who may not even have a role in 2 months.
an older prospect like lee or cortes they no longer believe in? maybe. kind of like when they traded MDD. I'm less worried about a guy like that biting back too hard.
would pretty clearly give up a Cortes (didn't protect him Rule V) or Lee if somebody were interested. I don't see them giving up any of the upper tier arms
Allan, Ziegler, Hamel, Vasil, Diaz, and I guess include Butto thanks to proximity. I do think they would give up Dominguez or Junior Santos types though. Luis Rodríguez needing TJ was such a bummer.
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
9m
One positive bit of Mets pitching news is that Tylor Megill (right biceps tendonitis) is tentatively scheduled to begin playing catch tomorrow. His arm feels better, giving him a good chance to beat his injured rotation-mates back to the field.
I've never been a huge Baez guy to begin with. Extremely exciting but also very frustrating. The idiocy was giving up such a decent prospect for a rental WHEN it was clear said rental wasn't going to cure what illed. If the Mets are "one" piece away from being WS contenders at the deadline and trade their 5th best prospect for say.. a healthy Chris Sale or a completely not happening but too lazy to look up pending FA SP a healthy Clayton Kershaw, so be it.
with hindsight there's no arguing the outcome - they gave up something and have nothing.
with where they were in the standings however i think it's arguable that it made just as much sense as the Cespedes trade in 2015. especially considering Cespedes' contract had that weird quirk that at the time guaranteed he'd be a rental whereas it was possible they'd resign Baez since he clearly had interest in playing with Lindor.
the Braves were behind them in the standings last year and their aggressive adds literally won them the WS.
you can't be that aggressive every year but that one wasn't unjustifiable imo. they were in first, there was reason to believe some of the bats were going to get back to their norms, and baez performed. but ultimately like many zack scott calculations it didn't go the way we wanted to.
no I'm not claiming LAD would trade Kershaw, I just wasn't going to remind myself of who is a FA SP outside of Syndergaard, Sale, Kershaw, deGrom and a few others.
trade and the Baez trade is the Mets rotation when they acquired Cespedes included deGrom, Harvey, and Syndergaard all pitching well and a lights out Familia closing, and they added bullpen pieces.
so you knew they'd be competitive.
When they acquired Baez their rotation was shit
I hate to rehash it, most people said at the time there was no defense for it - just delusion and desperation - so I hate to use the outcome as the reason it was a bad transaction.
anyway, I'm not thinking about it anymore just hope we don't relive something as stupid this year
dont worry there are no good FA to be pitchers on bad teams
Gray/Twins, Bassitt is here, Manaea/Musgrove now in SD.
if they go big for a pitcher it will likely be Montas/Castillo/Mahle - who they almost definitely discussed a few months ago and already know the approximate costs.
sidenote, i wonder if they could get 1 of the reds guys on a slight discount by also taking minor's $ off their books.
Mauricio for Minor + Castillo/Mahle type of deal.
if everyone is healthy i'd guess they pass on that type of deal but the pitchers aren't getting healthy or one has a setback i could see them dealing mauricio for a front end starter.
trade and the Baez trade is the Mets rotation when they acquired Cespedes included deGrom, Harvey, and Syndergaard all pitching well and a lights out Familia closing, and they added bullpen pieces.
Syndergaard was a rookie so while he was dynamic that's never a given. he could have easily hit a wall like walker did last year, who'd also looked dynamic pre-deadline. JDG was far from today's JDG, he wasn't throwing 100 mph and we were all still expecting the clock to strike midnight to some degree.
Harvey was a bonafide ace but he had the potential innings limitation and Wright was considered the team's best player hurt with a lot of uncertainty. I don't remember what the exact prognosis was at that point but i don't think he came back until late in the year.
they were only 2 games over .500 and several back in the division.
i see both as similarly aggressive but justifiable gambles. live by the sword die by the sword. we spend all these years hoping to be in contention, last year they were in first with a chance to get an aging legendary pitcher into the postseason. in both they gave and they got, last year's team just fell apart at the seams.
RE: dont worry there are no good FA to be pitchers on bad teams
Gray/Twins, Bassitt is here, Manaea/Musgrove now in SD.
if they go big for a pitcher it will likely be Montas/Castillo/Mahle - who they almost definitely discussed a few months ago and already know the approximate costs.
sidenote, i wonder if they could get 1 of the reds guys on a slight discount by also taking minor's $ off their books.
Mauricio for Minor + Castillo/Mahle type of deal.
if everyone is healthy i'd guess they pass on that type of deal but the pitchers aren't getting healthy or one has a setback i could see them dealing mauricio for a front end starter.
I have not been paying close attention to AL this year... went to look at how John Means was pitching... and damn, TJ... had no idea
2015 the team at the all star break had an historically
Good rotation and an historically bad lineup. Go back and look at the game log from June of that yesr. How little they scored with the pitching they were getting was mind blowing. After the Kelly trade and the conforto call up it felt like Mets were at least trending in right direction, last year they were in a free fall and the add was not on the side of the team they needed.
RE: 2015 the team at the all star break had an historically
Good rotation and an historically bad lineup. Go back and look at the game log from June of that yesr. How little they scored with the pitching they were getting was mind blowing. After the Kelly trade and the conforto call up it felt like Mets were at least trending in right direction, last year they were in a free fall and the add was not on the side of the team they needed.
on july 31 they were 56-48 and i think Carrasco was set to make his season debut. they were .500 overall in the month of july and were 8-6 in the 14 games pre-8/1.
the free fall occurred in august and while there was a combo of factors it was mostly because of the offense. it was their lowest scoring month of the season by a healthy margin and their record in 1 run games was like 0-10 or something like that.
the only team that scored fewer runs in August was Pittsburgh.
and unlike pitt they didn't do that because they didn't have talent, they somehow accomplished that with a few guys posting good individual numbers (baez, alonso, conforto).
it's one of the more inexplicable months of baseball explained in the offseason when they gave the clubhouse an enema.
I think we can live with that rotation for 6-8 weeks with a 7-game lead. As long as (a big IF I get it) the 2 out hitting keeps coming as it has all season.
the past like this, but the outcome is basically irrelevant. A bad decision can have a good outcome and still be a bad decision and vice versa.
My issue is with the decision making at the time of the trades.
In 2021 the Mets knew deGrom was likely out for the season as was Syndergaard, Carrasco was a question mark, Walker hadn't pitched more than 57 innings in 4 years, and then there was a bunch of question marks. The trade for a 2nd baseman made no sense and most people said it at the time.
In 2015, the complexion of the roster was very different, and the Mets dodged a bullet - if you remember Sandy really wanted to trade Wheeler (?) and Flores for Carlos Gomez, which almost no one supported. Fans were irate with that trade, so when Gomez failed the physical and the fallback was Fullmer for Cespedes I think most fans were relieved but most agreed the Mets needed to add offense, not starting pitching.
Again, for me it's about reading the team. Most (or many) people felt like me in 2021 the team was not a contender despite their record given the outperformaning expectations of several players and in 2015 I felt like the Mets could be contenders with the right moves.
If you disagree that's fine, it's an opinion, but I think it's based in reality
I remember most being excited about Gomez myself included
But that did end up a bullet dodged not unlike Paddock ironically.
Last year in a lot of ways just comes down to what any of us believe they knew re JDG and Syndergaard. If either was back pitching like an ace in September I think we’d all agree it was worth going for it. Neither made it back but on 7/31 none of us know how predictable that was.
Even still I go back to the braves though, without any hope of Acuna and Soroka and I believe in 3rd place they went for it. Hard for me to blame a team for trying to win when we complained about the exact opposite for most of the prior decade post madoff. And the guy they added performed in every way possible. In early august he made plays to win like 2 games in his first week. For whatever reason they just fractured as a team.
order of business for me would be call Boston about JDM/Eovaldi (struggles and all) and Rich Hill. I'd also shop Dom hard. If he's not getting a start against a righty (even with Hudson's decent numbers vs. lefties this year)... he has zero value to this team.
Better give Boston lotsa pitching as their farm is in pitching neitherland( neither starters or flamethrower closers).
@AnthonyDiComo
UPDATE: Max Scherzer has a "moderate to high-grade" oblique strain. He'll miss 6-8 weeks.
2:35 PM · May 19, 2022
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=4&thread=622670
Huge blow.
But look. $43 million per year for this year and two more following, and he's 37 right now.
I know he's Scherzer, but I thought at the time it's a lot of money for a 37 year old, even though he's a 3x Cy Young Award winner.
The only silver-lining is this doesn't have anything to do with his arm, so maybe the fact that he and deGrom will really have low innings on them may be good for September and October baseball.
The bats are probably going to need to carry this team for the next few weeks.
@AnthonyDiComo
UPDATE: Max Scherzer has a "moderate to high-grade" oblique strain. He'll miss 6-8 weeks.
2:35 PM · May 19, 2022
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=4&thread=622670
Huge blow.
Sorry for the bad link: https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/1527357338365022235?cxt=HHwWtsCq5YXaobIqAAAA
they do need to make sure they are giving themselves an option or 2 behind that group so they don't get eickhoff'd again.
also there's a silver lining here that JDG and Scherzer are now likely to save 10-20 starts, 75-100 innings, and 1000-2000 pitches on their arms this year in missed time.
on any 1 pitch any player can do what Scherzer did yesterday so better to have it happen now then later. Hopefully both can build up in August/September to be ready for October.
Bassit, Carrasco, Peterson, Walker, Megill (when he returns).
There is a chance that these deGrom and Scherzer setbacks can help them big picture later this year if they're able to stick around in the meantime.
Sigh....
Most obvious trade candidate is Jose Quintana. Can't imagine he would cost too much, and the Pirates don't want to win too much
Rest of the division stinks. Braves pitching has been disappointing and Acuna and Albies are off to very slow starts. Phillies have no bullpen or timely hitting. Its basically the Bryce Harper lineup.
I think the Mets will be ok.
Bassit probably the best, but he's not an ace, Carasco is inconsistent as is Walker, and Peterson is in the minors and doesn't have a great MLB track record.
not saying panic, but this 6 game led could be gone in two weeks and if nothing else it will speed up the decline
When your team signs/relies on pitchers that are older and pitchers that are coming off of injury...nobody should be surprised that the Mets find themselves in this situation.
deGrom
Max
Walker
Carrasco
ideally there's someone with a $2-5m contract who a team would be happy to offload.
Mike Minor has been hurt to start the year and doesn't fit that description, but he can flex to the BP. He's making rehab starts but the Reds have enough SP options right now it's not obvious that they need his $9m. He's been a good targets for the mets for like 5 years running.
Bassit probably the best, but he's not an ace, Carasco is inconsistent as is Walker, and Peterson is in the minors and doesn't have a great MLB track record.
not saying panic, but this 6 game led could be gone in two weeks and if nothing else it will speed up the decline
that's easily a rotation that you can go .500 with. They are 11 games over .500. Oakland won 86 games last year with Bassitt as their top pitcher. They can't win a WS with this rotation but they can easily go .500 for a few months waiting for JDG/Scherzer to get back.
They need Bassitt/Carrasco to keep doing what they've been doing. they've both pitched close to the same level as scherzer and that needs to continue. this would be a great 2 months for Walker to pitch like he did last year first half even if he tanks again after that.
this is where trading dom for someone like paddack (i know he's hurt now so not him but someone like him) made a lot of sense before ST when they could have then signed a bat for DH.
not sure there's good value for dom right now and also not sure the mets can afford to take a talented lefty hitter out of the mix. so i think now is the time to eat some $ and just take on a contract.
That is not going to be easy. Have to be very careful with those games and do whatever they can to tread water.
Quote:
my God, the pitching depth in the upper minors is dreadful. We all knew that, but there are just no options. Montgomery is getting rocked in AAA. Best next option may be Butto in AA
this is where trading dom for someone like paddack (i know he's hurt now so not him but someone like him) made a lot of sense before ST when they could have then signed a bat for DH.
not sure there's good value for dom right now and also not sure the mets can afford to take a talented lefty hitter out of the mix. so i think now is the time to eat some $ and just take on a contract.
Someone like Paddack, maybe. But not Paddack. I was glad they passed on that deal, and am elated now.
Bats will need to continue raking, and the bullpen will be key. They've fortunately had some young guys emerging there: beyond Smith, they've had some younger guys show some stuff in Medina, Holderman, and Reed.
Quote:
that is not a contending rotation.
Bassit probably the best, but he's not an ace, Carasco is inconsistent as is Walker, and Peterson is in the minors and doesn't have a great MLB track record.
not saying panic, but this 6 game led could be gone in two weeks and if nothing else it will speed up the decline
that's easily a rotation that you can go .500 with. They are 11 games over .500. Oakland won 86 games last year with Bassitt as their top pitcher. They can't win a WS with this rotation but they can easily go .500 for a few months waiting for JDG/Scherzer to get back.
They need Bassitt/Carrasco to keep doing what they've been doing. they've both pitched close to the same level as scherzer and that needs to continue. this would be a great 2 months for Walker to pitch like he did last year first half even if he tanks again after that.
Best case.
But if you look at OAK rotation last year they were all pretty good.
so far 2022 hasn't been this bad, but you may not recall how bad Walker was 2nd half, and Carrasco awful. Peterson was brutal too.
Losing Scherzer definitely isn't nothing but we are talking about missing 10-15 starts with a replacement who hasn't been too bad when they are currently 11 over .500.
he's an overrager and still a few years from FA but it may be worth buying out 1 or 2 years of FA. he's a guy in a situation that can't really afford to not listen even on a team friendly deal.
with deGrom playing the part of Syndergaard and Scherzer playing the part of deGrom, lol.
every pitcher now moves up a notch in terms of expectations and they were already up a notch.
again I'm not saying throw in the towel, I would just lower your expectations and I hope the team does not get desperate.
with deGrom playing the part of Syndergaard and Scherzer playing the part of deGrom, lol.
every pitcher now moves up a notch in terms of expectations and they were already up a notch.
again I'm not saying throw in the towel, I would just lower your expectations and I hope the team does not get desperate.
as long as they can keep things such that nobody ever plays the part of eickhoff things should be ok.
if jdg/scherzer don't come back at all then they aren't going anywhere anyway.
eppler has got to be by the phone ready to use some cohen $ to bring in some pitchers. minor would be perfect.
someone needs to hit one out and just get the series.
Maybe if you take Melancon and his gaudy 8 ERA, 5 FIP and 2+WHIP off their hands
otherwise why would Arizona trade Kelly? He's affordable for three more years.
D-backs are 3 games under .500, not reds bad where they're like roadkill on the side of the road and other teams are feeding off their carcass.
Absolutely LOVE Joey Votto but he's been so bad this year that taking on the remainder of his 2022 25, + 2023 25, + 7 million in 2024 doesn't seem realistic. I don't think paying Cano 40 and then Votto potentially being Cano 2.0 is something even Cohen would be willing to do.
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and Joey Votto?
Absolutely LOVE Joey Votto but he's been so bad this year that taking on the remainder of his 2022 25, + 2023 25, + 7 million in 2024 doesn't seem realistic. I don't think paying Cano 40 and then Votto potentially being Cano 2.0 is something even Cohen would be willing to do.
Add on a lux tax and that’s a huge $$$ bill. Can’t think of another way to get a good SP without giving up prospects though.
that's decent. not great but decent. 14 starts the last 2 years, xera/fip/xfip all just above 4. that's close to replacement level and he's pitched out of the pen. as far as street free agents go they could have done worse. he didnt have enough sample size for savant #s in 2021 but his 2020 page looks decent. above average exit velocity. 95th percentile+ curve spin each of the past 2 years.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trevor-cahill-502239?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb - ( New Window )
winker we know. he's struggled so far this year but he's the lefty that will make opposing managers think twice about sending righties up for Alonso. For a power hitter he makes good contact and doesn't K too much. and it would keep him from hitting big homers against us late in games. it is meant to be. also 1.5 years left.
so just depends on which player in the top 10-30 of the system it costs. Junior Santos or Carlos Cortes? Probably a yes. Definitely not giving up a Hamel/Butto/Ziegler/Dominguez/Vasil though.
but why do I feel like we're about to see a trade of one of Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos, or Ramirez for an underwhelming return.
@StevenACohen2
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27m
I’m at my son’s graduation. My phone is blowing up with texts about Alonso’s walk off. Big win! LGM
but why do I feel like we're about to see a trade of one of Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos, or Ramirez for an underwhelming return.
honestly there aren't any rentals worth that kind of concern from anyone so i doubt it. Wilson Contreras and Benintendi are probably closest.
Quintana is actually 1 of the better pitchers not on a team in 1st place (Gray, Bassitt, Manaea, Musgrove aren't going to be on the market). That's why i doubt he's cheap to pick up since he's also cheap.
so the only guys i see them giving up 1 of those guys for are pitchers like Montas or Castillo who have 1.5 years of control left. i could see that, especially if the health of JDG or Scherzer is looking shaky and they are still in first place. Those guys aren't getting any younger so they will need to add top end pitching somehow and trading a Mauricio may be the only way.
but why do I feel like we're about to see a trade of one of Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos, or Ramirez for an underwhelming return.
No reason to think that other than PTSD cause by a different front office, I'd say.
i meant robert are you not putting him in that range? i just quickly glanced pipeline which still has him 18th which is low but i guess placement for everyone after #7 is arguable.
passing on baez once again looking smart too. hasn't done anything since the big first week.
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like Carlos Dominguez but the Mets would move him tomorrow for a guy like Quintana. Dominguez is 23 in October with an .847 OPS in A-ball and 40% k rate, not a type. 40% of his PA's have resulted in K's. His power is impressive but that's a no-brainer for a legit rotation piece, rental or not.
i meant robert are you not putting him in that range? i just quickly glanced pipeline which still has him 18th which is low but i guess placement for everyone after #7 is arguable.
Robert Dominguez had arm surgery in the off-season and has now thrown 12 (poor) innings in his career despite the fact he'll be 21 in November. He always had severe RP risk. Keith Law had him 17th in the system BEFORE the surgery news.
"17. Robert Dominguez, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-5 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Dominguez is a big 6-5 right-hander who sits 97 mph and touches 99 mph with a so-so breaking ball that gets slurvy but could end up a 50-55 for him. His changeup is well below-average, though, and he might end up a power reliever between that and his fastball command, which isn’t where you’d like it to be for a 20-year-old."
Would I love dealing him for a Jose Quintana? Not so much but I also wouldn't be that upset.
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PCA trade was moronic but I have close to zero concern they do anything that stupid this year.
passing on baez once again looking smart too. hasn't done anything since the big first week.
I've never been a huge Baez guy to begin with. Extremely exciting but also very frustrating. The idiocy was giving up such a decent prospect for a rental WHEN it was clear said rental wasn't going to cure what illed. If the Mets are "one" piece away from being WS contenders at the deadline and trade their 5th best prospect for say.. a healthy Chris Sale or a completely not happening but too lazy to look up pending FA SP a healthy Clayton Kershaw, so be it.
an older prospect like lee or cortes they no longer believe in? maybe. kind of like when they traded MDD. I'm less worried about a guy like that biting back too hard.
Allan, Ziegler, Hamel, Vasil, Diaz, and I guess include Butto thanks to proximity. I do think they would give up Dominguez or Junior Santos types though. Luis Rodríguez needing TJ was such a bummer.
@AnthonyDiComo
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9m
One positive bit of Mets pitching news is that Tylor Megill (right biceps tendonitis) is tentatively scheduled to begin playing catch tomorrow. His arm feels better, giving him a good chance to beat his injured rotation-mates back to the field.
I've never been a huge Baez guy to begin with. Extremely exciting but also very frustrating. The idiocy was giving up such a decent prospect for a rental WHEN it was clear said rental wasn't going to cure what illed. If the Mets are "one" piece away from being WS contenders at the deadline and trade their 5th best prospect for say.. a healthy Chris Sale or a completely not happening but too lazy to look up pending FA SP a healthy Clayton Kershaw, so be it.
with hindsight there's no arguing the outcome - they gave up something and have nothing.
with where they were in the standings however i think it's arguable that it made just as much sense as the Cespedes trade in 2015. especially considering Cespedes' contract had that weird quirk that at the time guaranteed he'd be a rental whereas it was possible they'd resign Baez since he clearly had interest in playing with Lindor.
the Braves were behind them in the standings last year and their aggressive adds literally won them the WS.
you can't be that aggressive every year but that one wasn't unjustifiable imo. they were in first, there was reason to believe some of the bats were going to get back to their norms, and baez performed. but ultimately like many zack scott calculations it didn't go the way we wanted to.
so you knew they'd be competitive.
When they acquired Baez their rotation was shit
I hate to rehash it, most people said at the time there was no defense for it - just delusion and desperation - so I hate to use the outcome as the reason it was a bad transaction.
anyway, I'm not thinking about it anymore just hope we don't relive something as stupid this year
if they go big for a pitcher it will likely be Montas/Castillo/Mahle - who they almost definitely discussed a few months ago and already know the approximate costs.
sidenote, i wonder if they could get 1 of the reds guys on a slight discount by also taking minor's $ off their books.
Mauricio for Minor + Castillo/Mahle type of deal.
if everyone is healthy i'd guess they pass on that type of deal but the pitchers aren't getting healthy or one has a setback i could see them dealing mauricio for a front end starter.
Syndergaard was a rookie so while he was dynamic that's never a given. he could have easily hit a wall like walker did last year, who'd also looked dynamic pre-deadline. JDG was far from today's JDG, he wasn't throwing 100 mph and we were all still expecting the clock to strike midnight to some degree.
Harvey was a bonafide ace but he had the potential innings limitation and Wright was considered the team's best player hurt with a lot of uncertainty. I don't remember what the exact prognosis was at that point but i don't think he came back until late in the year.
they were only 2 games over .500 and several back in the division.
i see both as similarly aggressive but justifiable gambles. live by the sword die by the sword. we spend all these years hoping to be in contention, last year they were in first with a chance to get an aging legendary pitcher into the postseason. in both they gave and they got, last year's team just fell apart at the seams.
if they go big for a pitcher it will likely be Montas/Castillo/Mahle - who they almost definitely discussed a few months ago and already know the approximate costs.
sidenote, i wonder if they could get 1 of the reds guys on a slight discount by also taking minor's $ off their books.
Mauricio for Minor + Castillo/Mahle type of deal.
if everyone is healthy i'd guess they pass on that type of deal but the pitchers aren't getting healthy or one has a setback i could see them dealing mauricio for a front end starter.
I have not been paying close attention to AL this year... went to look at how John Means was pitching... and damn, TJ... had no idea
on july 31 they were 56-48 and i think Carrasco was set to make his season debut. they were .500 overall in the month of july and were 8-6 in the 14 games pre-8/1.
the free fall occurred in august and while there was a combo of factors it was mostly because of the offense. it was their lowest scoring month of the season by a healthy margin and their record in 1 run games was like 0-10 or something like that.
allowed - 120 (17th/30)
record - 9-19
the only team that scored fewer runs in August was Pittsburgh.
and unlike pitt they didn't do that because they didn't have talent, they somehow accomplished that with a few guys posting good individual numbers (baez, alonso, conforto).
it's one of the more inexplicable months of baseball explained in the offseason when they gave the clubhouse an enema.
Carasco
Bassit
Walker
Peterson
Megill
I think we can live with that rotation for 6-8 weeks with a 7-game lead. As long as (a big IF I get it) the 2 out hitting keeps coming as it has all season.
My issue is with the decision making at the time of the trades.
In 2021 the Mets knew deGrom was likely out for the season as was Syndergaard, Carrasco was a question mark, Walker hadn't pitched more than 57 innings in 4 years, and then there was a bunch of question marks. The trade for a 2nd baseman made no sense and most people said it at the time.
In 2015, the complexion of the roster was very different, and the Mets dodged a bullet - if you remember Sandy really wanted to trade Wheeler (?) and Flores for Carlos Gomez, which almost no one supported. Fans were irate with that trade, so when Gomez failed the physical and the fallback was Fullmer for Cespedes I think most fans were relieved but most agreed the Mets needed to add offense, not starting pitching.
Again, for me it's about reading the team. Most (or many) people felt like me in 2021 the team was not a contender despite their record given the outperformaning expectations of several players and in 2015 I felt like the Mets could be contenders with the right moves.
If you disagree that's fine, it's an opinion, but I think it's based in reality
Last year in a lot of ways just comes down to what any of us believe they knew re JDG and Syndergaard. If either was back pitching like an ace in September I think we’d all agree it was worth going for it. Neither made it back but on 7/31 none of us know how predictable that was.
Even still I go back to the braves though, without any hope of Acuna and Soroka and I believe in 3rd place they went for it. Hard for me to blame a team for trying to win when we complained about the exact opposite for most of the prior decade post madoff. And the guy they added performed in every way possible. In early august he made plays to win like 2 games in his first week. For whatever reason they just fractured as a team.
Looks more in shape than he's been in some time.
What would be your preference?
Mets Scouting Starting Pitchers, Who Are Potential Options? - ( New Window )
Better give Boston lotsa pitching as their farm is in pitching neitherland( neither starters or flamethrower closers).