"Arjun Menon
@arjunmenon100
Introducing QB Wins over Expected. Using a QB's supporting cast (rushing, oline, receiving, defense, ST), we can apply regression analysis and find that since 2019 no QB has elevated their roster to more wins over expected than Patrick Mahomes"
Link - (
New Window )
I think the point of this is it's trying to control for the supporting cast.
Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:
-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook
DJ throws a needle through two defenders for Engram to drop, washed up Tate having a meltdown on the sideline and the Young Jokester throwing haymakers at opponents.
The whole point of this metric is to adjust the rating based on the QB's surrounding cast. Daniel Jones would have much fewer expected wins than Patrick Mahomes based on surrounding cast. Wins over/under expected is then the baseline you can compare.
I am sure many here will hate it because it is math, and many here will think it is gospel because it is math. Most reasonable people will consider it a useful data point.
Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:
-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook
"No idea"....sure, sure, whatever helps you get through your day.
Mediocre in high school. Mediocre in college. Bad as a pro. GoSh We HaVe No IdEa WhAt He iS!!!
Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:
-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook
No, you have no idea what he is. Most people who have watched the Giants for the past three years have a good idea of what he is.
Link - ( New Window )
The thread title was very clear. You clicked on the thread and added a comment just to let everyone know you don't approve of the thread's existence?
Thanks?
Interesting to see that right before Mahomes was drafted, Cincinnati drafted our very own John Ross.
A huge QB gaffe that they were able to recover from by getting Burrow a few years later.
Wow.
with such a strong O-Line that Daniel Jones has not won more games.
I say simply amazing.
Mara has already spoken to Jones a few times just to call him a special boy.
Sometimes you have to use common sense (analytics don’t).
If NY doesn’t get screwed by the refs vs Washington, Jones would have been 5-5 up to the game his season ended. The team was an abomination after that. THAT should tell you FAR more than these “wins over expected type stats” which are STILL interpretation of statistics by humans. That plus a quarter won’t get you a cup of coffee.
Mara has already spoken to Jones a few times just to call him a special boy.
And then he gave him a Werther’s Original.
Quote:
the coddling today.
Mara has already spoken to Jones a few times just to call him a special boy.
And then he gave him a Werther’s Original.
Damn, I'm 33 and my mom still won't let me have those
Quote:
And win. The roster should be better this year, so go win games.
The whole point of this metric is to adjust the rating based on the QB's surrounding cast. Daniel Jones would have much fewer expected wins than Patrick Mahomes based on surrounding cast. Wins over/under expected is then the baseline you can compare.
I am sure many here will hate it because it is math, and many here will think it is gospel because it is math. Most reasonable people will consider it a useful data point.
The problem is it's math that then incorporates the "designer's" personal opinions. How does he or she quantify the skill of the people around the QB. That's personal opinion. And then the conclusion is his or her personal conjecture based on those earlier opinions. OPS is math. Wins above replacement is subjective use of math. Big difference.
Quote:
the coddling today.
Mara has already spoken to Jones a few times just to call him a special boy.
And then he gave him a Werther’s Original.
I actually laughed at this one. Well done... lol
Sometimes you have to use common sense (analytics don’t).
So trying to judge whether a QB is good by analyzing his surrounding cast isn't common sense? But bitching about a refs call is, what? In depth analysis? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
but but but Troy Aikman likes him so that's good enough for some bbi'ers top 5 QB
I have misgivings about the methodology for evaluating surrounding cast. But if this method is sound we really aren’t seeing what we think we’re seeing.
Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:
-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook
No idea what you see, but I have a pretty damn good idea what we have in Jones.
Also - I know we don't like the Cowboys, but they have Drew Lock over Dak Prescott.
Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.
Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.
Wins above replacement or war is a rock solid approach for team sports. The implementation here may or may not be effective but your dismissal of the approach out of hand says more of your ignorance of the state of the art of sabermetrics than it does about the approach itself. If it works in baseball it can work for football.
Quote:
but any stat that measures QB success where the numerator in the ratio is wins is a highly dubious stat, imo. They want you to believe the denominator resolves the team aspect of winning, but in the end WINS is not a QB statistic, nor should it be.
Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.
Wins above replacement or war is a rock solid approach for team sports. The implementation here may or may not be effective but your dismissal of the approach out of hand says more of your ignorance of the state of the art of sabermetrics than it does about the approach itself. If it works in baseball it can work for football.
LOL, okay.
For what it's worth I am not a statistician, but I'm a mathematician with a pretty good idea of the statistical approach taken here.
I feel much more confident in my ability to critique a statistical measure than I do in critiquing a quarterback's play.
But you're right, I'm probably just an ignoramus when it comes to these things. I'm certain I don't know what all the experts on seem to know.
Quote:
Nope clicked on it for its usual entertainment value.
.
The thread title was very clear. You clicked on the thread and added a comment just to let everyone know you don't approve of the thread's existence?
Thanks?
Quote:
we have no idea what he is.
Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:
-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook
"No idea"....sure, sure, whatever helps you get through your day.
Mediocre in high school. Mediocre in college. Bad as a pro. GoSh We HaVe No IdEa WhAt He iS!!!
No QB would be remotely successful with the factors he's had to deal with. None.
But we had a natural experiment to see what the team did when he went down and it sucked ass.
You could argue that put in the “totally average QB” instead of our backup we’d have done better but a) they aren’t available and b) it’s a hypothetical construct.
We’ll find out what we need to know if Taylor beats him out.
Not enough data points.
Which is why the PFF WAR uses PFF grades and no one uses it.
Unless you have a known expert putting their name on it, we cannot verify that it's BS or garbage. Sorry John. Now pipe down.
Quote:
.
The thread title was very clear. You clicked on the thread and added a comment just to let everyone know you don't approve of the thread's existence?
Thanks?
Nope clicked on it to learn something and for the entertainment value. I wasn't disappointed. Not sure why it would bother you.
Quote:
In comment 15718079 Blue21 said:
Quote:
.
The thread title was very clear. You clicked on the thread and added a comment just to let everyone know you don't approve of the thread's existence?
Thanks?
Nope clicked on it to learn something and for the entertainment value. I wasn't disappointed. Not sure why it would bother you.
I'm pretty sure it's you who is very clearly bothered by the thread.
Don't expect more entertainment value than you provide.
Quote:
In comment 15718062 NYG22 said:
Quote:
we have no idea what he is.
Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:
-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook
"No idea"....sure, sure, whatever helps you get through your day.
Mediocre in high school. Mediocre in college. Bad as a pro. GoSh We HaVe No IdEa WhAt He iS!!!
No QB would be remotely successful with the factors he's had to deal with. None.
And the factors DJ seemingly needs to be successful are the same ones that you would ideally surround a rookie QB with, at a much lower price tag.
Whether it's DJ's fault or not is irrelevant. The reality is, his price tag is very likely to go up next season. The Giants wasted his rookie contract. And in the early stages of yet another rebuilding effort, they're probably better off syncing the timeline to a new rookie QB deal unless DJ somehow demonstrates genuine All-Pro level performance this year.
Quote:
In comment 15718066 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 15718062 NYG22 said:
Quote:
we have no idea what he is.
Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:
-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook
"No idea"....sure, sure, whatever helps you get through your day.
Mediocre in high school. Mediocre in college. Bad as a pro. GoSh We HaVe No IdEa WhAt He iS!!!
No QB would be remotely successful with the factors he's had to deal with. None.
And the factors DJ seemingly needs to be successful are the same ones that you would ideally surround a rookie QB with, at a much lower price tag.
Whether it's DJ's fault or not is irrelevant. The reality is, his price tag is very likely to go up next season. The Giants wasted his rookie contract. And in the early stages of yet another rebuilding effort, they're probably better off syncing the timeline to a new rookie QB deal unless DJ somehow demonstrates genuine All-Pro level performance this year.
Considering how deep next year's QB crop appears to be and Tyrod Taylor under contract you can go that direction. Even if the crop takes a step back, you likely will have options in FA like Baker Mayfield or will Pittsburgh keep Mitch Trubisky at that salary if Kenny Pickett is going to be the starter?
Yep
Quote:
In comment 15718226 Dan in the Springs said:
Quote:
but any stat that measures QB success where the numerator in the ratio is wins is a highly dubious stat, imo. They want you to believe the denominator resolves the team aspect of winning, but in the end WINS is not a QB statistic, nor should it be.
Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.
Wins above replacement or war is a rock solid approach for team sports. The implementation here may or may not be effective but your dismissal of the approach out of hand says more of your ignorance of the state of the art of sabermetrics than it does about the approach itself. If it works in baseball it can work for football.
LOL, okay.
For what it's worth I am not a statistician, but I'm a mathematician with a pretty good idea of the statistical approach taken here.
I feel much more confident in my ability to critique a statistical measure than I do in critiquing a quarterback's play.
But you're right, I'm probably just an ignoramus when it comes to these things. I'm certain I don't know what all the experts on seem to know.
War is a sound approach. And for the guy who chimed in that war is not appropriate for *all* team sports, I do have an open mind and look forward to your theoretical paper on the subject.
Why are you such a dipshit? But anyway...
You don't need my paper on it. PFF came to that conclusion.
Yeah. Mahomes could be dead for 5 years and still be a better QB than Daniel Jones.
If not we move on look at 2023 draft or FA for our next QB with Taylor as the bridge QB.
Nothing not any of these stats will change DJ from bing QB1 in 2022.
Personally very tired now of these DJ threads.
Red Zone success rate
Sacks
INTs
Yards per attempt
I’ve seen DJ supporters dismiss arguments on each one of these data points, so my question is - is there an objective measure of play that you do believe in?
6 breakout players in 2022 - ( New Window )
Quote:
but any stat that measures QB success where the numerator in the ratio is wins is a highly dubious stat, imo. They want you to believe the denominator resolves the team aspect of winning, but in the end WINS is not a QB statistic, nor should it be.
Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.
Wins above replacement or war is a rock solid approach for team sports. The implementation here may or may not be effective but your dismissal of the approach out of hand says more of your ignorance of the state of the art of sabermetrics than it does about the approach itself. If it works in baseball it can work for football.
No, it is not. It is someone's objective opinion of what certain stats might lead to. There is no definitive factually based formula to say how many games a player is worth. You want proof. How often do we see teams that do better when a player goes out with an injury? It's happened at times when Judge is out, and it's happened at times when Stanton was out. What was the Braves record without Acuna last year compared to what it was with him. Did the guy who replace Acuna have a WAR twice that of Acuna?
Despite what the analytics 'experts' and fans want you to believe, WAR is the very definition of a subjective stat. It is not based on facts, like OPS, but on someone's opinions and interpretations of what those facts might mean.
I imagine there's articles from 2020 and 2021 saying that those also were going to be his breakout years
*You're
Quote:
Here’s an article that says, “I think so!” 6 breakout players in 2022 - ( New Window )
I imagine there's articles from 2020 and 2021 saying that those also were going to be his breakout years
Scooter, you don’t see a difference between last year and this year? Let me help you…
2021 …GM…..one of the worst
2022….one of the smartest bright young minds
2021….HC: one of the worst
2022…….hopefully, a man who can plan and oversee as well as being an OC
2021…OC:…one of the worst
2022…..a brilliant young man from a very successful organization
2021….DC: bend but don’t break, can never get many 3 and outs
2022……a man with an aggressive plan, hopefully ready to get the fans excited again to yell DEFENSE
2021….arguable the worst OL in the NFL
2022- revamped filled with much more quality
2021- running game-not much due to injury
2022- lots of hope with a healthy Saquon running around
2021- wr: most Injured or incompetent
2022- hopefully not injured +WanRobinson
Bottom line….Yes, there is a lot of reasons to believe Daniel can break out this year….unlike last year
Quote:
In comment 15718554 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
Here’s an article that says, “I think so!” 6 breakout players in 2022 - ( New Window )
I imagine there's articles from 2020 and 2021 saying that those also were going to be his breakout years
Scooter, you don’t see a difference between last year and this year? Let me help you…
2021 …GM…..one of the worst
2022….one of the smartest bright young minds
2021….HC: one of the worst
2022…….hopefully, a man who can plan and oversee as well as being an OC
2021…OC:…one of the worst
2022…..a brilliant young man from a very successful organization
2021….DC: bend but don’t break, can never get many 3 and outs
2022……a man with an aggressive plan, hopefully ready to get the fans excited again to yell DEFENSE
2021….arguable the worst OL in the NFL
2022- revamped filled with much more quality
2021- running game-not much due to injury
2022- lots of hope with a healthy Saquon running around
2021- wr: most Injured or incompetent
2022- hopefully not injured +WanRobinson
Bottom line….Yes, there is a lot of reasons to believe Daniel can break out this year….unlike last year
My point was people have been expecting a breakout year since 2020. It's the boy who cried wolf at this point, and I'm confident that it will become apparent this year that it's not just everyone else's fault DJ sucks
Quote:
In comment 15718554 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
Here’s an article that says, “I think so!” 6 breakout players in 2022 - ( New Window )
I imagine there's articles from 2020 and 2021 saying that those also were going to be his breakout years
Scooter, you don’t see a difference between last year and this year? Let me help you…
2021 …GM…..one of the worst
2022….one of the smartest bright young minds
2021….HC: one of the worst
2022…….hopefully, a man who can plan and oversee as well as being an OC
2021…OC:…one of the worst
2022…..a brilliant young man from a very successful organization
2021….DC: bend but don’t break, can never get many 3 and outs
2022……a man with an aggressive plan, hopefully ready to get the fans excited again to yell DEFENSE
2021….arguable the worst OL in the NFL
2022- revamped filled with much more quality
2021- running game-not much due to injury
2022- lots of hope with a healthy Saquon running around
2021- wr: most Injured or incompetent
2022- hopefully not injured +WanRobinson
Bottom line….Yes, there is a lot of reasons to believe Daniel can break out this year….unlike last year
You lost me on your second point. You think Daboll is the OC?
It is also interesting how rather pedestrian Brady looks when his best receiver walks off the field in a big game. Probably TV hype is what is generating a lot of that.
But in any case, I think this list looks about right for said QBs and Jones is in fact a second worst QB sure.
No running game? Mixon is only the 3rd best RB in the game and had similar numbers when Burrow was banging chearleaders in college
Link - ( New Window )
And Tannehill isn’t better than Burrow either.
LOL! Now that’s funny.
I watch Mahomes be Mahomes enough said. I watch Aaron a Rodgers take a team that without him would be .500 football team and throw laser guided missles past defense backs ear holes. I watch Brady with seven SBs and come back from down 21 at the show.
And then there is Burrow . Why is he in this conversation again????? It used to be you didn’t hoist a Lombardi over your head and everyone just forget s about y/a or qbr or whatever. Seems like more hype now for losing a sb
That’s why he is in the conversation. And before you bring up any “memorable” plays BS like you constantly do- you don’t get to the SB without your QB making plays. He completed 69% of his passes with 5/2 TD/INT.
And before you shit on his performances again, don’t forget what your boy Tannehill did in the playoffs this year. He was pathetic.
I have been more impressed with D Carr.
That high ranking on that stat line made me quite impressed by them.
Who cares about stats when you lose a super bowl ? It’s also pretty easy to compile stats when you’re throwing to chase and Higgins
Thanks for the realization all those QBs were carried by their cast as well.
If Saquan Barkley averaged that, god knows what you would have said about him. No run game, no pass blocking and the dude got to the SB. We should re-look at whether he should be closer to the best QB in the game rather than worse than playoff choker Ryan Tannehill.
You claim my stat is bs as any kind of indicator of superior QB playing . OK I could do that too. Let’s look at a prior leader in adjusted yards per pass attempt in 2012 Colin kapernick. No one said he was some kind of elite guy.and further no one around here mentions Kerry Collins’s as some type of good QB for a losing super bowl run. Except me but I’m not saying he’s any elite guy I just like him as a giant fan and limit his accolades in Giants / franchise capacity.
They had that strip sack in like the raiders 30!yard line that changes the game. Tannehill then shits the bed with three interceptions and d Henry was rusty coming back from injury. Then Mahomes was looking like slumping Mahomes or bengals D just totally shut him down. I’m sorry but burrow just doesn’t pass the eye test as some elite player.
But I read your last post and you finally said something that made sense… Tannehill shit the bed. That’s usually a common theme for “3rd best QB” in the league.
And as far as SB losers - that trio of Marino, Kelly, and Tarkenton - are they overrated bums as well? Please think before typing.
And as far as SB losers - that trio of Marino, Kelly, and Tarkenton - are they overrated bums as well? Please think before typing.
These people were transcendental players that changed the game. No one played like Dan Marino back then. All of those guys played in a run first league . The fact they never won one is an anomaly.
So now burrow is a legend of the game like those guys are who are all time greats? And I should think before typing? Yes there is some grey area with SB winners and elite QBs like Trent filter and the like . Relatively obscure stats like y/ a and QB who does not even make plays in the SB or playoffs in general does not an elite qb make. Really with four minutes left in the last super bowl borrow still would not even throw down field . He was still Just doing his dink and dunk passes waiting for chase mixon to break one. He’s not a playmaker. Hes certainly not an elite qb.
There are plenty of othe r qb who have a high y/a stat that everyone just for grit about
You’re all over the place - you make a point and when someone counters it - you dismiss the point. It makes no sense.
What Joe burrow did last year was nothing short of remarkable. He took a team that drafted top 5 to the SB. Yes, he had help. But guess what? So did Tom Brady when he won, so did Eli Manning when he won two Along with Peyton and Ben and every other QB who won the SB. And it can be argued that burrow did it without a functioning OL and no run game in the playofffs makes it more impressive.
Umm he led the NFL in passing yards one year…. So what is your point.
Burrow did all I stated in his FIRST full season. Show me other QBs who did that their first full year.
The fact he shows up as 12 on that expected wins thing which admittedly has some eye brow raising rankings pretty much seals the deal for me.
The fact he shows up as 12 on that expected wins thing which admittedly has some eye brow raising rankings pretty much seals the deal for me.
Yeah a stat that doesn’t show how the QB actually played in the game and burrow ends up as 12 even though he played less than half the games that the majority of the players played in.
The fact he is that high already shows how amazing he truly is. So your go to stat actually props up Burrow even more. Hahahahah
Your stat isn't percentage based. It's aggregate. Half of total and half of expected aren't a benefit.
Quote:
He played half the games but, would be expected to win half as many games as well.
Your stat isn't percentage based. It's aggregate. Half of total and half of expected aren't a benefit.
He doesnt understand what the site is trying to say. All he sees is Tannehill and Carr above Burrow therefore it must be legitimate. Nothing more, nothing less.
I mean it doesnt even show how the QB actually played in these games but somehow it should reflect actual rankings.