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NFT: New stat suggests DJ second worst QB in NFL since 2019

DanMetroMan : 5/25/2022 11:58 am
"Arjun Menon
@arjunmenon100
Introducing QB Wins over Expected. Using a QB's supporting cast (rushing, oline, receiving, defense, ST), we can apply regression analysis and find that since 2019 no QB has elevated their roster to more wins over expected than Patrick Mahomes"
Link - ( New Window )
DJ sucks but it’s hard to overcome the worst roster in the league  
The_Boss : 5/25/2022 12:03 pm : link
And win. The roster should be better this year, so go win games.
These  
Straw Hat : 5/25/2022 12:12 pm : link
New deep stats they try to pull out of their ass are so dumb. Its football, not Chinese algebra.
RE: DJ sucks but it’s hard to overcome the worst roster in the league  
Go Terps : 5/25/2022 12:13 pm : link
In comment 15718052 The_Boss said:
Quote:
And win. The roster should be better this year, so go win games.


I think the point of this is it's trying to control for the supporting cast.
again  
NYG22 : 5/25/2022 12:13 pm : link
we have no idea what he is.

Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:

-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook
Thinking back to the Tommer thread  
Spiciest Memelord : 5/25/2022 12:14 pm : link
Eli and Collins had the huge security blanket of throwing it to well dressed Armani outside of the sidelines tip toe catch where no defender could defend on a simple read on a CB.

DJ throws a needle through two defenders for Engram to drop, washed up Tate having a meltdown on the sideline and the Young Jokester throwing haymakers at opponents.
It seems that everyday  
JB_in_DC : 5/25/2022 12:14 pm : link
keyboard jockeys are inventing ever newer and ever dumber stats. Not only do they do nothing to enhance our understanding of the game, they are utterly incomprehensible. The subtitle of this graph is pure gibberish. These doofuses need to stop pretending to understand football and go work for accenture or something.
RE: DJ sucks but it’s hard to overcome the worst roster in the league  
Mike from Ohio : 5/25/2022 12:14 pm : link
In comment 15718052 The_Boss said:
Quote:
And win. The roster should be better this year, so go win games.


The whole point of this metric is to adjust the rating based on the QB's surrounding cast. Daniel Jones would have much fewer expected wins than Patrick Mahomes based on surrounding cast. Wins over/under expected is then the baseline you can compare.

I am sure many here will hate it because it is math, and many here will think it is gospel because it is math. Most reasonable people will consider it a useful data point.
RE: again  
Greg from LI : 5/25/2022 12:15 pm : link
In comment 15718062 NYG22 said:
Quote:
we have no idea what he is.

Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:

-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook


"No idea"....sure, sure, whatever helps you get through your day.

Mediocre in high school. Mediocre in college. Bad as a pro. GoSh We HaVe No IdEa WhAt He iS!!!
this stat doesn't pass the smell test  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 5/25/2022 12:16 pm : link
I'm far from a Jones defender but this reach of an advanced metric doesn't affect the way I view him at all.
RE: again  
Mike from Ohio : 5/25/2022 12:18 pm : link
In comment 15718062 NYG22 said:
Quote:
we have no idea what he is.

Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:

-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook


No, you have no idea what he is. Most people who have watched the Giants for the past three years have a good idea of what he is.
Here  
DanMetroMan : 5/25/2022 12:19 pm : link
is the full article
Link - ( New Window )
An algorithm that has Tua and Tannehill that high  
FranknWeezer : 5/25/2022 12:26 pm : link
and Prescott and Murray that low is for the birds, IMO.
Oh good another DJ sucks thread  
Blue21 : 5/25/2022 12:27 pm : link
.
RE: Oh good another DJ sucks thread  
Mike from Ohio : 5/25/2022 12:31 pm : link
In comment 15718079 Blue21 said:
Quote:
.


The thread title was very clear. You clicked on the thread and added a comment just to let everyone know you don't approve of the thread's existence?

Thanks?
" based on supporting cast '....  
winoguy : 5/25/2022 12:34 pm : link
this means Dak really sucks.
I went back and researched the 2017 draft.....  
GiantBlue : 5/25/2022 12:45 pm : link
Mahomes was taken 12th overall by KC while the Giants drafted Engram with the 23rd pick.

Interesting to see that right before Mahomes was drafted, Cincinnati drafted our very own John Ross.

A huge QB gaffe that they were able to recover from by getting Burrow a few years later.

Wow.
It's really amazing  
M.S. : 5/25/2022 12:50 pm : link

with such a strong O-Line that Daniel Jones has not won more games.

I say simply amazing.
I'd wait for the NSA to come in....  
MOOPS : 5/25/2022 12:51 pm : link
with their analysis before making a call.
This is BS.  
Giant John : 5/25/2022 12:53 pm : link
Stop spreading garbage.
Wow they will have to go extra hard with  
NoGainDayne : 5/25/2022 1:01 pm : link
the coddling today.

Mara has already spoken to Jones a few times just to call him a special boy.
It’s a bullshit stat  
Dave on the UWS : 5/25/2022 1:03 pm : link
like a lot of analytics is ( there’s a reason the word “anal” is in there).
Sometimes you have to use common sense (analytics don’t).
If NY doesn’t get screwed by the refs vs Washington, Jones would have been 5-5 up to the game his season ended. The team was an abomination after that. THAT should tell you FAR more than these “wins over expected type stats” which are STILL interpretation of statistics by humans. That plus a quarter won’t get you a cup of coffee.
New  
Giants : 5/25/2022 1:07 pm : link
Yes new. How many way can you find to prove a player sucks. Let’s try new math. Not the same as the old math. Let’s get fooled again. What crap some people come up with
RE: Wow they will have to go extra hard with  
eric2425ny : 5/25/2022 1:24 pm : link
In comment 15718113 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
the coddling today.

Mara has already spoken to Jones a few times just to call him a special boy.


And then he gave him a Werther’s Original.
RE: RE: Wow they will have to go extra hard with  
Scooter185 : 5/25/2022 1:26 pm : link
In comment 15718130 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
In comment 15718113 NoGainDayne said:


Quote:


the coddling today.

Mara has already spoken to Jones a few times just to call him a special boy.



And then he gave him a Werther’s Original.


Damn, I'm 33 and my mom still won't let me have those
Tom Brady #20  
Ron Johnson : 5/25/2022 1:29 pm : link
Tua #7 ????
RE: RE: DJ sucks but it’s hard to overcome the worst roster in the league  
k2tampa : 5/25/2022 1:37 pm : link
In comment 15718065 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In comment 15718052 The_Boss said:


Quote:


And win. The roster should be better this year, so go win games.



The whole point of this metric is to adjust the rating based on the QB's surrounding cast. Daniel Jones would have much fewer expected wins than Patrick Mahomes based on surrounding cast. Wins over/under expected is then the baseline you can compare.

I am sure many here will hate it because it is math, and many here will think it is gospel because it is math. Most reasonable people will consider it a useful data point.


The problem is it's math that then incorporates the "designer's" personal opinions. How does he or she quantify the skill of the people around the QB. That's personal opinion. And then the conclusion is his or her personal conjecture based on those earlier opinions. OPS is math. Wins above replacement is subjective use of math. Big difference.
Dak,  
Ron Johnson : 5/25/2022 1:50 pm : link
40M per year for the 4th worst QB in the league ..... ouch
RE: RE: Wow they will have to go extra hard with  
Johnny5 : 5/25/2022 2:03 pm : link
In comment 15718130 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
In comment 15718113 NoGainDayne said:


Quote:


the coddling today.

Mara has already spoken to Jones a few times just to call him a special boy.



And then he gave him a Werther’s Original.

I actually laughed at this one. Well done... lol
RE: It’s a bullshit stat  
mikeinbloomfield : 5/25/2022 2:21 pm : link
In comment 15718115 Dave on the UWS said:
Quote:
like a lot of analytics is ( there’s a reason the word “anal” is in there).
Sometimes you have to use common sense (analytics don’t).


So trying to judge whether a QB is good by analyzing his surrounding cast isn't common sense? But bitching about a refs call is, what? In depth analysis? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

RE: Dak,  
Spiciest Memelord : 5/25/2022 2:24 pm : link
In comment 15718142 Ron Johnson said:
Quote:
40M per year for the 4th worst QB in the league ..... ouch


but but but Troy Aikman likes him so that's good enough for some bbi'ers top 5 QB
Math is far from my ...  
BronxBob : 5/25/2022 3:04 pm : link
... strong point, but comparing 32 (or more) "contestants" in a stat with a sample size of 17 (or less) seems kind of pointless from the get-go.
Bill James wrote about new stats  
81_Great_Dane : 5/25/2022 3:11 pm : link
that any new stat that is never surprising probably isn’t worth very much, and any new stat is always surprising is probably wrong. These results are very consistently surprising—though Mahomes on top is not. I think it’s probably wrong.

I have misgivings about the methodology for evaluating surrounding cast. But if this method is sound we really aren’t seeing what we think we’re seeing.
RE: again  
MyNameIsMyName : 5/25/2022 3:15 pm : link
In comment 15718062 NYG22 said:
Quote:
we have no idea what he is.

Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:

-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook


No idea what you see, but I have a pretty damn good idea what we have in Jones.
Any stat ...  
FStubbs : 5/25/2022 3:30 pm : link
... that has Tua Tagovailoa rated higher than Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Tom Brady is highly questionable.

Also - I know we don't like the Cowboys, but they have Drew Lock over Dak Prescott.
He may well be the worst...  
Dan in the Springs : 5/25/2022 3:35 pm : link
but any stat that measures QB success where the numerator in the ratio is wins is a highly dubious stat, imo. They want you to believe the denominator resolves the team aspect of winning, but in the end WINS is not a QB statistic, nor should it be.

Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.
Well at least the  
LS : 5/25/2022 3:42 pm : link
thread title was marked correctly. Non Football Thread.
......  
Route 9 : 5/25/2022 3:42 pm : link
Who in the hell is worse than him?
RE: He may well be the worst...  
Producer : 5/25/2022 3:43 pm : link
In comment 15718226 Dan in the Springs said:
Quote:
but any stat that measures QB success where the numerator in the ratio is wins is a highly dubious stat, imo. They want you to believe the denominator resolves the team aspect of winning, but in the end WINS is not a QB statistic, nor should it be.

Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.



Wins above replacement or war is a rock solid approach for team sports. The implementation here may or may not be effective but your dismissal of the approach out of hand says more of your ignorance of the state of the art of sabermetrics than it does about the approach itself. If it works in baseball it can work for football.
......  
Route 9 : 5/25/2022 3:44 pm : link
Werther’s Original lol
RE: RE: He may well be the worst...  
Dan in the Springs : 5/25/2022 3:48 pm : link
In comment 15718239 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 15718226 Dan in the Springs said:


Quote:


but any stat that measures QB success where the numerator in the ratio is wins is a highly dubious stat, imo. They want you to believe the denominator resolves the team aspect of winning, but in the end WINS is not a QB statistic, nor should it be.

Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.




Wins above replacement or war is a rock solid approach for team sports. The implementation here may or may not be effective but your dismissal of the approach out of hand says more of your ignorance of the state of the art of sabermetrics than it does about the approach itself. If it works in baseball it can work for football.


LOL, okay.

For what it's worth I am not a statistician, but I'm a mathematician with a pretty good idea of the statistical approach taken here.

I feel much more confident in my ability to critique a statistical measure than I do in critiquing a quarterback's play.

But you're right, I'm probably just an ignoramus when it comes to these things. I'm certain I don't know what all the experts on seem to know.
RE: RE: Oh good another DJ sucks thread  
Blue21 : 5/25/2022 3:55 pm : link
In comment 15718084 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In comment 15718079 Blue21 said:


Quote:
Nope clicked on it for its usual entertainment value.

.



The thread title was very clear. You clicked on the thread and added a comment just to let everyone know you don't approve of the thread's existence?

Thanks?
RE: RE: again  
NYG22 : 5/25/2022 4:08 pm : link
In comment 15718066 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 15718062 NYG22 said:


Quote:


we have no idea what he is.

Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:

-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook



"No idea"....sure, sure, whatever helps you get through your day.

Mediocre in high school. Mediocre in college. Bad as a pro. GoSh We HaVe No IdEa WhAt He iS!!!


No QB would be remotely successful with the factors he's had to deal with. None.
LOL  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 5/25/2022 4:14 pm : link
Yeah, we have "no idea" what Jones is? That excuse was tired 2 years ago.
Win over  
Daniel in MI : 5/25/2022 4:37 pm : link
Expected suggests that sans DJ the team would be expected to win more.

But we had a natural experiment to see what the team did when he went down and it sucked ass.

You could argue that put in the “totally average QB” instead of our backup we’d have done better but a) they aren’t available and b) it’s a hypothetical construct.

We’ll find out what we need to know if Taylor beats him out.
RE: LOL  
81_Great_Dane : 5/25/2022 4:45 pm : link
In comment 15718269 LakeGeorgeGiant said:
Quote:
Yeah, we have "no idea" what Jones is? That excuse was tired 2 years ago.
WAR  
PakistanPete : 5/25/2022 4:47 pm : link
doesn't make sense for all team sports.

Not enough data points.

Which is why the PFF WAR uses PFF grades and no one uses it.
RE: This is BS.  
Gatorade Dunk : 5/25/2022 4:50 pm : link
In comment 15718105 Giant John said:
Quote:
Stop spreading garbage.

Unless you have a known expert putting their name on it, we cannot verify that it's BS or garbage. Sorry John. Now pipe down.
RE: RE: Oh good another DJ sucks thread  
Blue21 : 5/25/2022 4:55 pm : link
In comment 15718084 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In comment 15718079 Blue21 said:


Quote:


.



The thread title was very clear. You clicked on the thread and added a comment just to let everyone know you don't approve of the thread's existence?

Thanks?


Nope clicked on it to learn something and for the entertainment value. I wasn't disappointed. Not sure why it would bother you.
RE: RE: RE: Oh good another DJ sucks thread  
Gatorade Dunk : 5/25/2022 4:56 pm : link
In comment 15718313 Blue21 said:
Quote:
In comment 15718084 Mike from Ohio said:


Quote:


In comment 15718079 Blue21 said:


Quote:


.



The thread title was very clear. You clicked on the thread and added a comment just to let everyone know you don't approve of the thread's existence?

Thanks?



Nope clicked on it to learn something and for the entertainment value. I wasn't disappointed. Not sure why it would bother you.

I'm pretty sure it's you who is very clearly bothered by the thread.

Don't expect more entertainment value than you provide.
RE: RE: RE: again  
Gatorade Dunk : 5/25/2022 5:04 pm : link
In comment 15718264 NYG22 said:
Quote:
In comment 15718066 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


In comment 15718062 NYG22 said:


Quote:


we have no idea what he is.

Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:

-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook



"No idea"....sure, sure, whatever helps you get through your day.

Mediocre in high school. Mediocre in college. Bad as a pro. GoSh We HaVe No IdEa WhAt He iS!!!



No QB would be remotely successful with the factors he's had to deal with. None.

And the factors DJ seemingly needs to be successful are the same ones that you would ideally surround a rookie QB with, at a much lower price tag.

Whether it's DJ's fault or not is irrelevant. The reality is, his price tag is very likely to go up next season. The Giants wasted his rookie contract. And in the early stages of yet another rebuilding effort, they're probably better off syncing the timeline to a new rookie QB deal unless DJ somehow demonstrates genuine All-Pro level performance this year.
RE: RE: RE: RE: again  
Mike in NY : 5/25/2022 5:09 pm : link
In comment 15718316 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 15718264 NYG22 said:


Quote:


In comment 15718066 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


In comment 15718062 NYG22 said:


Quote:


we have no idea what he is.

Let's just take the year and evaluate, hopefully without:

-zero running game
-poor, oft- injured weapons
-worst OL in football
-a 1980s playbook



"No idea"....sure, sure, whatever helps you get through your day.

Mediocre in high school. Mediocre in college. Bad as a pro. GoSh We HaVe No IdEa WhAt He iS!!!



No QB would be remotely successful with the factors he's had to deal with. None.


And the factors DJ seemingly needs to be successful are the same ones that you would ideally surround a rookie QB with, at a much lower price tag.

Whether it's DJ's fault or not is irrelevant. The reality is, his price tag is very likely to go up next season. The Giants wasted his rookie contract. And in the early stages of yet another rebuilding effort, they're probably better off syncing the timeline to a new rookie QB deal unless DJ somehow demonstrates genuine All-Pro level performance this year.


Considering how deep next year's QB crop appears to be and Tyrod Taylor under contract you can go that direction. Even if the crop takes a step back, you likely will have options in FA like Baker Mayfield or will Pittsburgh keep Mitch Trubisky at that salary if Kenny Pickett is going to be the starter?
anyone else see anything a little off with their lowest rated qbs?  
Eric on Li : 5/25/2022 5:31 pm : link
Dak and Kyler below Lock, Fields, Darnold, Brissett? i think this methodology may still have some bugs to work out.

Symmetric error bars  
BobOnLI : 5/25/2022 6:45 pm : link
Suggest idiocy. And yes I am a statistician.
That's Ok  
CTGiants : 5/25/2022 6:56 pm : link
Giants have one of the worse olines in football, not only since 2019 but the last decade. We could be watching a future HOF qb throwing the ball at the feet of his offensive lineman..They didn't even have enough time in the pocket last year to let John Ross get deep.
Well, '22 is make it or break it for Jones...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 5/25/2022 7:04 pm : link
I'd put heavy odds on the latter, but time will tell. I hope he makes me look like an idiot & becomes an elite QB under Daboll & Kafka.
Do we really need a stat  
Doubledeuce22 : 5/25/2022 7:11 pm : link
To tell us he sucks? He sucks when using the eye test. I love how everyone last year was saying oh now he has all the tools. No excuses. Same thing this year again. Luckily the new regime is in place and if he sucks again this year he’ll be gone. Hope I’m wrong and he breaks out but I don’t see it.
RE: Do we really need a stat  
Route 9 : 5/25/2022 7:47 pm : link
In comment 15718381 Doubledeuce22 said:
Quote:
To tell us he sucks? He sucks when using the eye test. I love how everyone last year was saying oh now he has all the tools. No excuses. Same thing this year again. Luckily the new regime is in place and if he sucks again this year he’ll be gone. Hope I’m wrong and he breaks out but I don’t see it.


Yep
RE: RE: RE: He may well be the worst...  
Producer : 5/25/2022 9:01 pm : link
In comment 15718245 Dan in the Springs said:
Quote:
In comment 15718239 Producer said:


Quote:


In comment 15718226 Dan in the Springs said:


Quote:


but any stat that measures QB success where the numerator in the ratio is wins is a highly dubious stat, imo. They want you to believe the denominator resolves the team aspect of winning, but in the end WINS is not a QB statistic, nor should it be.

Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.




Wins above replacement or war is a rock solid approach for team sports. The implementation here may or may not be effective but your dismissal of the approach out of hand says more of your ignorance of the state of the art of sabermetrics than it does about the approach itself. If it works in baseball it can work for football.



LOL, okay.

For what it's worth I am not a statistician, but I'm a mathematician with a pretty good idea of the statistical approach taken here.

I feel much more confident in my ability to critique a statistical measure than I do in critiquing a quarterback's play.

But you're right, I'm probably just an ignoramus when it comes to these things. I'm certain I don't know what all the experts on seem to know.


War is a sound approach. And for the guy who chimed in that war is not appropriate for *all* team sports, I do have an open mind and look forward to your theoretical paper on the subject.
RE: RE: RE: RE: He may well be the worst...  
PakistanPete : 5/25/2022 9:08 pm : link
In comment 15718446 Producer said:
Quote:
War is a sound approach. And for the guy who chimed in that war is not appropriate for *all* team sports, I do have an open mind and look forward to your theoretical paper on the subject.


Why are you such a dipshit? But anyway...

You don't need my paper on it. PFF came to that conclusion.
Only question that matters  
Jeppah52pj : 5/25/2022 10:58 pm : link
If mahomes was drafted here four years ago; would he be a superstar?
And if he is,….  
Jeppah52pj : 5/25/2022 11:00 pm : link
Gentleman and Mac are still in charge right now
RE: Only question that matters  
Route 9 : 5/26/2022 12:07 am : link
In comment 15718497 Jeppah52pj said:
Quote:
If mahomes was drafted here four years ago; would he be a superstar?


Yeah. Mahomes could be dead for 5 years and still be a better QB than Daniel Jones.
So Tua and Fitz are top tier?  
RasputinPrime : 5/26/2022 12:32 am : link
yeah right.
For better or worse, DJ’s our QB in 2022  
Rick in Dallas : 5/26/2022 1:18 am : link
Let’s see what Daboll and Kafka can do with DJ. I hope they turn him into a good QB.
If not we move on look at 2023 draft or FA for our next QB with Taylor as the bridge QB.
Nothing not any of these stats will change DJ from bing QB1 in 2022.
Personally very tired now of these DJ threads.
Well GD..  
Giant John : 5/26/2022 3:05 am : link
Very cute. If it look and smells Like BS it’s most likely BS. Your entitled to you view too.
WAR  
The Jake : 5/26/2022 7:06 am : link
TD passes
Red Zone success rate
Sacks
INTs
Yards per attempt

I’ve seen DJ supporters dismiss arguments on each one of these data points, so my question is - is there an objective measure of play that you do believe in?
Interesting  
giantBCP : 5/26/2022 7:20 am : link
How players for the same team, such as Tua and Fitzpatrick, as well as Mac Jones and Tom Brady, fall in the exact same spot on the list. It leads me to believe that their statistic is more of a team metric than of a QB metric, despite what they would like to call it.
Could 2022 be DJ’s coming out?  
5BowlsSoon : 5/26/2022 7:55 am : link
Here’s an article that says, “I think so!”
6 breakout players in 2022 - ( New Window )
RE: RE: He may well be the worst...  
k2tampa : 5/26/2022 9:52 am : link
In comment 15718239 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 15718226 Dan in the Springs said:


Quote:


but any stat that measures QB success where the numerator in the ratio is wins is a highly dubious stat, imo. They want you to believe the denominator resolves the team aspect of winning, but in the end WINS is not a QB statistic, nor should it be.

Give us other reasons for believing he's the worst. There may be an abundance of them.




Wins above replacement or war is a rock solid approach for team sports. The implementation here may or may not be effective but your dismissal of the approach out of hand says more of your ignorance of the state of the art of sabermetrics than it does about the approach itself. If it works in baseball it can work for football.


No, it is not. It is someone's objective opinion of what certain stats might lead to. There is no definitive factually based formula to say how many games a player is worth. You want proof. How often do we see teams that do better when a player goes out with an injury? It's happened at times when Judge is out, and it's happened at times when Stanton was out. What was the Braves record without Acuna last year compared to what it was with him. Did the guy who replace Acuna have a WAR twice that of Acuna?

Despite what the analytics 'experts' and fans want you to believe, WAR is the very definition of a subjective stat. It is not based on facts, like OPS, but on someone's opinions and interpretations of what those facts might mean.
RE: Could 2022 be DJ’s coming out?  
Scooter185 : 5/26/2022 9:56 am : link
In comment 15718554 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
Here’s an article that says, “I think so!” 6 breakout players in 2022 - ( New Window )


I imagine there's articles from 2020 and 2021 saying that those also were going to be his breakout years
RE: Well GD..  
Gatorade Dunk : 5/26/2022 10:40 am : link
In comment 15718529 Giant John said:
Quote:
Very cute. If it look and smells Like BS it’s most likely BS. Your entitled to you view too.

*You're
RE: RE: Could 2022 be DJ’s coming out?  
5BowlsSoon : 5/26/2022 11:12 am : link
In comment 15718628 Scooter185 said:
Quote:
In comment 15718554 5BowlsSoon said:


Quote:


Here’s an article that says, “I think so!” 6 breakout players in 2022 - ( New Window )



I imagine there's articles from 2020 and 2021 saying that those also were going to be his breakout years


Scooter, you don’t see a difference between last year and this year? Let me help you…

2021 …GM…..one of the worst
2022….one of the smartest bright young minds

2021….HC: one of the worst
2022…….hopefully, a man who can plan and oversee as well as being an OC

2021…OC:…one of the worst
2022…..a brilliant young man from a very successful organization

2021….DC: bend but don’t break, can never get many 3 and outs
2022……a man with an aggressive plan, hopefully ready to get the fans excited again to yell DEFENSE

2021….arguable the worst OL in the NFL
2022- revamped filled with much more quality

2021- running game-not much due to injury
2022- lots of hope with a healthy Saquon running around

2021- wr: most Injured or incompetent
2022- hopefully not injured +WanRobinson

Bottom line….Yes, there is a lot of reasons to believe Daniel can break out this year….unlike last year
RE: RE: RE: Could 2022 be DJ’s coming out?  
Scooter185 : 5/26/2022 1:10 pm : link
In comment 15718710 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
In comment 15718628 Scooter185 said:


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In comment 15718554 5BowlsSoon said:


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Here’s an article that says, “I think so!” 6 breakout players in 2022 - ( New Window )



I imagine there's articles from 2020 and 2021 saying that those also were going to be his breakout years



Scooter, you don’t see a difference between last year and this year? Let me help you…

2021 …GM…..one of the worst
2022….one of the smartest bright young minds

2021….HC: one of the worst
2022…….hopefully, a man who can plan and oversee as well as being an OC

2021…OC:…one of the worst
2022…..a brilliant young man from a very successful organization

2021….DC: bend but don’t break, can never get many 3 and outs
2022……a man with an aggressive plan, hopefully ready to get the fans excited again to yell DEFENSE

2021….arguable the worst OL in the NFL
2022- revamped filled with much more quality

2021- running game-not much due to injury
2022- lots of hope with a healthy Saquon running around

2021- wr: most Injured or incompetent
2022- hopefully not injured +WanRobinson

Bottom line….Yes, there is a lot of reasons to believe Daniel can break out this year….unlike last year


My point was people have been expecting a breakout year since 2020. It's the boy who cried wolf at this point, and I'm confident that it will become apparent this year that it's not just everyone else's fault DJ sucks
GD  
Giant John : 5/26/2022 7:53 pm : link
Why bother.
RE: RE: RE: Could 2022 be DJ’s coming out?  
Gatorade Dunk : 5/27/2022 9:08 am : link
In comment 15718710 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
In comment 15718628 Scooter185 said:


Quote:


In comment 15718554 5BowlsSoon said:


Quote:


Here’s an article that says, “I think so!” 6 breakout players in 2022 - ( New Window )



I imagine there's articles from 2020 and 2021 saying that those also were going to be his breakout years



Scooter, you don’t see a difference between last year and this year? Let me help you…

2021 …GM…..one of the worst
2022….one of the smartest bright young minds

2021….HC: one of the worst
2022…….hopefully, a man who can plan and oversee as well as being an OC

2021…OC:…one of the worst
2022…..a brilliant young man from a very successful organization

2021….DC: bend but don’t break, can never get many 3 and outs
2022……a man with an aggressive plan, hopefully ready to get the fans excited again to yell DEFENSE

2021….arguable the worst OL in the NFL
2022- revamped filled with much more quality

2021- running game-not much due to injury
2022- lots of hope with a healthy Saquon running around

2021- wr: most Injured or incompetent
2022- hopefully not injured +WanRobinson

Bottom line….Yes, there is a lot of reasons to believe Daniel can break out this year….unlike last year

You lost me on your second point. You think Daboll is the OC?
A thread about QB stats and Daniel Jones is a NFT?  
NYGgolfer : 5/27/2022 9:36 am : link
.
Need a category for  
Jerry in_DC : 5/27/2022 9:40 am : link
Non-Touchdown Thread
The list appears to have it s flaws but pretty solid  
Debaser : 5/28/2022 8:58 am : link
I have no idea why this place overrates Burrow and underrates Tannehill and D Carr but, anyone who watches them can tell they play above their stat lines would indicate.

It is also interesting how rather pedestrian Brady looks when his best receiver walks off the field in a big game. Probably TV hype is what is generating a lot of that.

But in any case, I think this list looks about right for said QBs and Jones is in fact a second worst QB sure.
This advanced stat of wins over expected is the best I have seen  
Debaser : 6/2/2022 6:35 am : link
of ranking QBs autonomously from their respective teams . I don't know if Tannehill ranks that high in general but, third on this list is pretty impressive. Burrow ranks perfectly at 10 or so which is where I place him .

No running game? Mixon is only the 3rd best RB in the game and had similar numbers when Burrow was banging chearleaders in college
Link - ( New Window )
Mixon is not the 3rd best RB  
GNewGiants : 6/2/2022 6:44 am : link
In the game. Just stop.

And Tannehill isn’t better than Burrow either.
RE: Need a category for  
The Jake : 6/2/2022 8:16 am : link
In comment 15719515 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
Non-Touchdown Thread


LOL! Now that’s funny.
you posted that link  
UConn4523 : 6/2/2022 8:33 am : link
2x now? The one thing you have includes a season in which Burrow wasn't even in the NFL. LOL.
Yea that and logic and common sense  
Debaser : 6/4/2022 8:49 pm : link
So I watch young super stars like Josh Allen throw 90 mph fastballs in frozen hurricane; take over whole play off games score TDS in like the final 2 min of a game with dominating athletic performances. I watch Herbert do the same in final best game of the 2021 season.

I watch Mahomes be Mahomes enough said. I watch Aaron a Rodgers take a team that without him would be .500 football team and throw laser guided missles past defense backs ear holes. I watch Brady with seven SBs and come back from down 21 at the show.

And then there is Burrow . Why is he in this conversation again????? It used to be you didn’t hoist a Lombardi over your head and everyone just forget s about y/a or qbr or whatever. Seems like more hype now for losing a sb
Burrow  
GNewGiants : 6/4/2022 9:52 pm : link
Was first in the NFL in completion percentage, Y/A, AY/A in all of football. Plus he went to the Super Bowl beating two of your favorite QBs and Mahomes.

That’s why he is in the conversation. And before you bring up any “memorable” plays BS like you constantly do- you don’t get to the SB without your QB making plays. He completed 69% of his passes with 5/2 TD/INT.

And before you shit on his performances again, don’t forget what your boy Tannehill did in the playoffs this year. He was pathetic.
Tannehill is not my boy  
Debaser : 6/4/2022 10:43 pm : link
I liked him and thought he was a pretty good QB. I always thought they relied on Henry too much.

I have been more impressed with D Carr.

That high ranking on that stat line made me quite impressed by them.

Who cares about stats when you lose a super bowl ? It’s also pretty easy to compile stats when you’re throwing to chase and Higgins
Ok if it’s easy to discredit  
GNewGiants : 6/5/2022 8:28 am : link
Then Montana is overrated because of rice and Taylor, manning is overrated cause of Harrison and Wayne, Mahomes is overrated because of hill and Kelce…. Etc… shit even a a guy named Tom Brady couldn’t win with a team of Moss and Welker…

Thanks for the realization all those QBs were carried by their cast as well.
I also think Burrow’s run  
GNewGiants : 6/5/2022 8:36 am : link
To the SB Is much more impressive with the “3rd best RB in football” averaging 60 yards per game in the playoffs and less than 4 YPC.

If Saquan Barkley averaged that, god knows what you would have said about him. No run game, no pass blocking and the dude got to the SB. We should re-look at whether he should be closer to the best QB in the game rather than worse than playoff choker Ryan Tannehill.
Montana is overrated because….  
Debaser : 6/5/2022 9:15 am : link
Now you’re sounding foolish. Montana is not overrated. Montana made everyone better when he pkayed. Even the defense played better when he would come back from injury. Hes a 3x SB MVP. He would take over games with domineering performances .

You claim my stat is bs as any kind of indicator of superior QB playing . OK I could do that too. Let’s look at a prior leader in adjusted yards per pass attempt in 2012 Colin kapernick. No one said he was some kind of elite guy.and further no one around here mentions Kerry Collins’s as some type of good QB for a losing super bowl run. Except me but I’m not saying he’s any elite guy I just like him as a giant fan and limit his accolades in Giants / franchise capacity.
Also the bengals defense doesn’t get credit  
Debaser : 6/5/2022 9:19 am : link
They gave them a short field every playoff game leading to the SB.

They had that strip sack in like the raiders 30!yard line that changes the game. Tannehill then shits the bed with three interceptions and d Henry was rusty coming back from injury. Then Mahomes was looking like slumping Mahomes or bengals D just totally shut him down. I’m sorry but burrow just doesn’t pass the eye test as some elite player.
I didn’t say Montana was overrated  
GNewGiants : 6/5/2022 10:54 am : link
I implied that you think he should be because elite QBs are only elite because of their surrounding talent. I’ll assume you just didn’t understand where I was going with it.

But I read your last post and you finally said something that made sense… Tannehill shit the bed. That’s usually a common theme for “3rd best QB” in the league.
And Kap only started 7  
GNewGiants : 6/5/2022 10:58 am : link
Games the year he led in AY/A - big difference than the 17 Burrow started.

And as far as SB losers - that trio of Marino, Kelly, and Tarkenton - are they overrated bums as well? Please think before typing.
RE: And Kap only started 7  
Debaser : 6/5/2022 12:14 pm : link
In comment 15725397 GNewGiants said:
Quote:
Games the year he led in AY/A - big difference than the 17 Burrow started.

And as far as SB losers - that trio of Marino, Kelly, and Tarkenton - are they overrated bums as well? Please think before typing.


These people were transcendental players that changed the game. No one played like Dan Marino back then. All of those guys played in a run first league . The fact they never won one is an anomaly.

So now burrow is a legend of the game like those guys are who are all time greats? And I should think before typing? Yes there is some grey area with SB winners and elite QBs like Trent filter and the like . Relatively obscure stats like y/ a and QB who does not even make plays in the SB or playoffs in general does not an elite qb make. Really with four minutes left in the last super bowl borrow still would not even throw down field . He was still Just doing his dink and dunk passes waiting for chase mixon to break one. He’s not a playmaker. Hes certainly not an elite qb.

There are plenty of othe r qb who have a high y/a stat that everyone just for grit about
Those stats  
GNewGiants : 6/5/2022 12:42 pm : link
Aren’t obscure. At all. Just because you never heard of it - doesn’t mean it isn’t used.

You’re all over the place - you make a point and when someone counters it - you dismiss the point. It makes no sense.

What Joe burrow did last year was nothing short of remarkable. He took a team that drafted top 5 to the SB. Yes, he had help. But guess what? So did Tom Brady when he won, so did Eli Manning when he won two Along with Peyton and Ben and every other QB who won the SB. And it can be argued that burrow did it without a functioning OL and no run game in the playofffs makes it more impressive.
A Matt Schaub  
Debaser : 6/5/2022 1:24 pm : link
Can show up in the top 3 for y/a . Find me another of major stats where he showing up top 3.
RE: A Matt Schaub  
GNewGiants : 6/5/2022 2:50 pm : link
In comment 15725485 Debaser said:
Quote:
Can show up in the top 3 for y/a . Find me another of major stats where he showing up top 3.


Umm he led the NFL in passing yards one year…. So what is your point.

Burrow did all I stated in his FIRST full season. Show me other QBs who did that their first full year.
The point is no one considered  
Debaser : 6/5/2022 5:26 pm : link
Schaub elite. Look we’re just going to have to agree to disagree on this. I don’t watch burrow and think he has the talent level of a Josh Allen or Herbert. I just don’t. Further I don’t think his accomplishment merits consideration with what Mahomes or Brady or A Rodgers have done.

The fact he shows up as 12 on that expected wins thing which admittedly has some eye brow raising rankings pretty much seals the deal for me.
RE: The point is no one considered  
GNewGiants : 6/5/2022 5:31 pm : link
In comment 15725681 Debaser said:
Quote:
Schaub elite. Look we’re just going to have to agree to disagree on this. I don’t watch burrow and think he has the talent level of a Josh Allen or Herbert. I just don’t. Further I don’t think his accomplishment merits consideration with what Mahomes or Brady or A Rodgers have done.

The fact he shows up as 12 on that expected wins thing which admittedly has some eye brow raising rankings pretty much seals the deal for me.


Yeah a stat that doesn’t show how the QB actually played in the game and burrow ends up as 12 even though he played less than half the games that the majority of the players played in.

The fact he is that high already shows how amazing he truly is. So your go to stat actually props up Burrow even more. Hahahahah
What does that have to do with it?  
Debaser : 6/5/2022 6:10 pm : link
He played half the games but, would be expected to win half as many games as well.

RE: What does that have to do with it?  
Gatorade Dunk : 6/6/2022 12:54 pm : link
In comment 15725752 Debaser said:
Quote:
He played half the games but, would be expected to win half as many games as well.

Your stat isn't percentage based. It's aggregate. Half of total and half of expected aren't a benefit.
RE: RE: What does that have to do with it?  
GNewGiants : 6/6/2022 1:00 pm : link
In comment 15726167 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15725752 Debaser said:


Quote:


He played half the games but, would be expected to win half as many games as well.



Your stat isn't percentage based. It's aggregate. Half of total and half of expected aren't a benefit.


He doesnt understand what the site is trying to say. All he sees is Tannehill and Carr above Burrow therefore it must be legitimate. Nothing more, nothing less.

I mean it doesnt even show how the QB actually played in these games but somehow it should reflect actual rankings.
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