24 HR, 71 Hits, 48 RBI's, through 60 games. This forecast out to 68 HR, 203 hits, 147 RBI's. The overall numbers would make it the best triple crown numbers ever. I tried researching with Baseball-reference and could not find a better number for a player. Gehrig comes close. I left out AVG but the forecast indicates he will be above 320 for average over that time.
Based on the schedule, I think he can do this so long as he stays healthy.
Again, phenomenal year but not a triple crown year. MVP, you bet.
What an odd post.
I think he has a chance of being the first half billion contract in US sports. Not a big chance, but a chance (he probably does if he's a couple years younger). He should get more than Trout though, IMO.
1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it
2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening
Well, that's baseball Susan
Cashman finally reached out to Judge's agent last week. Hadn't spoken since spring training.
I agree, the age will prevent it.
True, I left out average but he is leading in three major Categories right now. Call it a revised triple Crown but for him to put up these numbers they are pretty awesome. He still has outside shot of getting avg up.
I bet he gets something in line with what he was asking for anyways. The Yankees made a fair offer at the time and Judge wanted more than anyone would've pegged his value at before this season. As long as he stays healthy he'll likely get what he initially was looking for, but I can't see him blowing past $35M AAV for 8-9 years.
Well actually you left out not only average but rbi's too, since he's not on pace to lead the league in that either. If your "revised" triple crown is HR's, runs, and ops, then you're right on. I wonder if mlb will have a ceremony to celebrate that trifecta.
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Just have to exclude home runs and RBIs like you excluded batting average for Judge.
True, I left out average but he is leading in three major Categories right now. Call it a revised triple Crown but for him to put up these numbers they are pretty awesome. He still has outside shot of getting avg up.
I wouldn't hang the hat on the average stat so long as Judge stays above 320, he is going to way outpace Mantle in Hits and RBI's compared to 1956 season if he keeps this up because he is going to have 1/4 more At bats this season because this team is going through the lineup 5-6 times a game ver the usual 3-4 for normal teams.
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True, I left out average but he is leading in three major Categories right now. Call it a revised triple Crown but for him to put up these numbers they are pretty awesome. He still has outside shot of getting avg up.
Well actually you left out not only average but rbi's too, since he's not on pace to lead the league in that either. If your "revised" triple crown is HR's, runs, and ops, then you're right on. I wonder if mlb will have a ceremony to celebrate that trifecta.
If you look at the last 25 games, Judge is trending to surpass Jose Ramirez and Pete Alonzo in RBI's. that is if he keeps his average above 320
and he plays a great CF too. He might win a gold glove to boot.
Dan, Project out the number of At bats Judge is going to have with this team vs those players you mentioned. He won't get the average but he will pass Alonzo and Ramirez in RBI's and hits.
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the triple crown is a specific "stat". It's HR's, Batting average and RBI. Judge is having an incredible season, he is not on pace to win a triple crown. Arraez is hitting .362, Judge .318. Judge is 6th in the AL in BA, 2nd in RBI (Ramirez).
Dan, Project out the number of At bats Judge is going to have with this team vs those players you mentioned. He won't get the average but he will pass Alonzo and Ramirez in RBI's and hits.
0% snark, no idea what this means.
He's nowhere near a triple crown. Alonso has no impact on Judge winning triple crown, Arraez's 42 point advantage on average does.
AL MVP Judge with Ramirez on his tail and Devers third
NL MVP Too close to call between Betts/Goldschmidt/Machado
The trend is Judge is going to have way more at bats then Ramirez going forward with the 4th weakest schedule. He is going to get 5 to 6 at bats per game for at least 70 of the remaining games. Ramirez is not. The ore at bats gives judge the opportunity for more RBI's
1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it
2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening
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or at least they are losing big time. This may turn into a 10 year 400 million dollar contract if they want to keep him. Brutal job trying to lowball Judge.
I don't think they gambled and lost. I think they made a more than fair offer. Judge gambled on himself and, so far, he's won.
Judge deserves every penny what's coming to him. Just astounding what he is doing right now.
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can't recommend "Rickey" by Howard Bryant any more highly for Yankee fans. I'm about 75% through the book and it's really a great read. I mentioned this the other day but Sandy Alderson didn't trust the A's scouting department so his asking price from the Yankees came via Baseball America's top 10 list lol. Also (and maybe this is well known by Yankee fans)
1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it
2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening
#1 I recall. #2 I don't remember ever hearing. What are the details around that?
Per Bryant, Mattingly was fed up with Steinbrenner and said something suggesting that while The Boss paid him, it was like pulling teeth and he wasn't shown "respect" so Thrift was engaged in talks with Texas before they landed Palmeiro instead.
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In comment 15732319 DanMetroMan said:
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the triple crown is a specific "stat". It's HR's, Batting average and RBI. Judge is having an incredible season, he is not on pace to win a triple crown. Arraez is hitting .362, Judge .318. Judge is 6th in the AL in BA, 2nd in RBI (Ramirez).
Dan, Project out the number of At bats Judge is going to have with this team vs those players you mentioned. He won't get the average but he will pass Alonzo and Ramirez in RBI's and hits.
0% snark, no idea what this means.
He's nowhere near a triple crown. Alonso has no impact on Judge winning triple crown, Arraez's 42 point advantage on average does.
I really don't think Arraez will keep up that average. He is going to cool off after all star break with that schedule he has to play.
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don't understand "trending toward" means here. Ramirez has more RBI than Judge over the last 30 days, what is this "trend"? Ramirez 27, Judge 21
The trend is Judge is going to have way more at bats then Ramirez going forward with the 4th weakest schedule. He is going to get 5 to 6 at bats per game for at least 70 of the remaining games. Ramirez is not. The ore at bats gives judge the opportunity for more RBI's
PA leaders typically average around 4.5 per game, and those are the leaders. How the hell is Judge going to average "5 or 6" AB's (or PA's)? You're just making up numbers.
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In comment 15732334 DanMetroMan said:
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can't recommend "Rickey" by Howard Bryant any more highly for Yankee fans. I'm about 75% through the book and it's really a great read. I mentioned this the other day but Sandy Alderson didn't trust the A's scouting department so his asking price from the Yankees came via Baseball America's top 10 list lol. Also (and maybe this is well known by Yankee fans)
1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it
2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening
#1 I recall. #2 I don't remember ever hearing. What are the details around that?
Per Bryant, Mattingly was fed up with Steinbrenner and said something suggesting that while The Boss paid him, it was like pulling teeth and he wasn't shown "respect" so Thrift was engaged in talks with Texas before they landed Palmeiro instead.
The 1980's was a very frustrating decade for the yankees and mattingly. I still say moving Righetti to closer was a wrong move to this day. The pitching staff never recovered from having a true Ace.
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In comment 15732414 DanMetroMan said:
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don't understand "trending toward" means here. Ramirez has more RBI than Judge over the last 30 days, what is this "trend"? Ramirez 27, Judge 21
The trend is Judge is going to have way more at bats then Ramirez going forward with the 4th weakest schedule. He is going to get 5 to 6 at bats per game for at least 70 of the remaining games. Ramirez is not. The ore at bats gives judge the opportunity for more RBI's
PA leaders typically average around 4.5 per game, and those are the leaders. How the hell is Judge going to average "5 or 6" AB's (or PA's)? You're just making up numbers.
Dan, The team is putting up double digit runs like nobody's business and the schedule overall is weak going forward. Judge is going to get to 5 at bats average over rest of season..this is what i see. There's the Yankees Lineup rotation and then there is everyone else.
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It would have been the highest AAV contract for an Outfielder sans Mike Trout who is an all-time great and signed his deal at 27.
and he plays a great CF too. He might win a gold glove to boot.
Is it? is it a joke champ? It was a joke. They didn't even rip up his arbitration year, they were looking to tack on teh new deal after the arbitration year. It was a massive lowball. They were about $75 million apart and Judge knew his value. Say it with me....LOWBALL.
1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it
2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening
Michael Kay had the author on for a long interview last week. It does sound really interesting. Ricky definitely was a character.
Judge is a leader and he is going to put it all in the middle. It's great to watch.
which to me is sad. nothing more boring then HR, K, BB except maybe NBA 3 pt. launching
Fans gotta blame someone or bitch about something.
Meanwhile, in the real world, a good chunk of fans here and everywhere were questioning Judge's long term and even present potential and staying power. I remember laughing at threads...literally.
So now the Yanks blew it...that's rich.
He will be signed by the Yanks and then you can worry about the contract and bitch when Judge misses a month due to some typical injury that nearly every player endures.
Enjoy the season. Don't sweat the money.
Really?
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It would have been the highest AAV contract for an Outfielder sans Mike Trout who is an all-time great and signed his deal at 27.
Fans gotta blame someone or bitch about something.
Meanwhile, in the real world, a good chunk of fans here and everywhere were questioning Judge's long term and even present potential and staying power. I remember laughing at threads...literally.
So now the Yanks blew it...that's rich.
He will be signed by the Yanks and then you can worry about the contract and bitch when Judge misses a month due to some typical injury that nearly every player endures.
Enjoy the season. Don't sweat the money.
Lol so because you were wrong(you usually are), that means I'm bitching? Judge was always a top 3 MLB position player and contracts are out of control. You don't draw the line with Judge pal.
Judge has averaged 3.84 ab's per game on the season. He has averaged 3.92 ab's per game in the past month. He has averaged 4 ab's per game in the past two weeks, and 4.17 in the past week. He has had 5 ab's or more 14 times in 60 games, 24% of the time. This notion of 5+ at bats in at least 70 remaining games, 69% of the remainder of the season, is wildly unrealistic.
Will he get more at-bats than Ramirez? Barring a Bonds-like run of being pitched around (or missed time), almost certainly. And yet... he already has more at-bats than Ramirez, and fewer rbi's. On pace is a fairly straightforward term, and Ramirez is on pace for more rbi's than Judge is, despite having fewer at-bats. Will that trend continue? Probably not. Judge averages more rbi's per at-bat over his career than Ramirez, and hits in a more potent lineup (though the Indians have an awfully good offense too). But Judge catching Ramirez in rbi's will depend on a change in the trend. As of now, Ramirez is trending for more rbi's than Judge.
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In comment 15732393 Strahan91 said:
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It would have been the highest AAV contract for an Outfielder sans Mike Trout who is an all-time great and signed his deal at 27.
and he plays a great CF too. He might win a gold glove to boot.
Is it? is it a joke champ? It was a joke. They didn't even rip up his arbitration year, they were looking to tack on teh new deal after the arbitration year. It was a massive lowball. They were about $75 million apart and Judge knew his value. Say it with me....LOWBALL.
No, it is you that should say, it was not a lowball offer. It wasn't. It was a very fair offer based on all aspects, including injury days. Problem is, they are both approaching stupid money. And you should not be going by total $$ anyway as Judge wants more years. They should not give him 10 years. 6 or 7, yes.
Over $31 mill per year is not a lowball offer.
Judge bet on himself. In my opinion the only way he was gonna sign early was if the Yanks offered him a contract that fell in line with money for the best player in baseball. They would have had to pay him under the assumption that 2022 already happened.
Judge bet on himself. The Yanks and fans will reap the rewards with Judge putting together a legendary season. The Yanks will pay.
It's the Yankees. I think we can afford them some leeway when it comes to player and market evaluation. They rarely if ever let the wrong player walk or let a guy like Judge get away. Cano is the only one that comes to mind...and thanks to hindsight it looks like the Yanks knew what they were doing.
If the Yanks signed Judge early and he's on the 30 day DL people would be losing their minds around here.
I'll kill the Yanks if they lose Judge. Until then I think blaming them here is kind of ridiculous, especially since we don't even know what actually went down or what was offered.
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In comment 15732393 Strahan91 said:
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It would have been the highest AAV contract for an Outfielder sans Mike Trout who is an all-time great and signed his deal at 27.
Fans gotta blame someone or bitch about something.
Meanwhile, in the real world, a good chunk of fans here and everywhere were questioning Judge's long term and even present potential and staying power. I remember laughing at threads...literally.
So now the Yanks blew it...that's rich.
He will be signed by the Yanks and then you can worry about the contract and bitch when Judge misses a month due to some typical injury that nearly every player endures.
Enjoy the season. Don't sweat the money.
Lol so because you were wrong(you usually are), that means I'm bitching? Judge was always a top 3 MLB position player and contracts are out of control. You don't draw the line with Judge pal.
What was I wrong about? Please enlighten me. And maybe remove the bug from your ass...i was merely disagreeing with you.
I said Judge was a great player that needed a long term contract while many here questioned that. Now I am wrong?
I also said the Stanton deal was a good one for the Yanks while EVERYONE here said otherwise. Who's wrong there? He's only one of the best right handed power hitters in the game and we aren't even paying his full salary here...
Clown.
Hold on let me rub some bleach on my skin to fix this rash...
Not that it matters you can unleash hell and win this debate. Blame Cashman blame the Yanks. Feel better.
I don't downplay it as much as I don't obsess over it or insist that there isn't nuance to the discussion.
I never said this Judge contract would be easy but I did say right here last year that Judge should get a monster long term deal. I just don't profess to know the details of any negotiation process or blast the team when they don't sign the guy to an early bargain type deal.
I always admit or cop to being wrong.
Was only kidding about the bleach shit, but it is dangerous to apply to the skin. Wasn't personal.
Judge bet on himself and it looks like he's going to win that bet. No one has to be blamed here is all I am saying.
Just win the fucking WS and I don't care.
Ok believe what you want. There's a difference between thinking the NFL cap can be manipulated or worked around or that teams can cheat the cap at times and thinking it doesn't exist.
This is why internet debates suck. Allow for some nuance...!
fair enough.
But a couple of points:
First, your initial premise is wrong. Cabrera beats him in two of the three categories you listed because your math is wrong. The Yankees have played 60 games, so multiply everything by 2.7 to project it to 162 games. His 24 HRs projects to 64.8, not 68. His 48 RBIs projects to 129.6 not 148 (9 or 10 fewer than Cabrera). And his 71 hits projects to 191.7 (13 or 14 fewer than Cabrera). He is also on pace to strike out 172.8 times, which would be his second highest number.
Also, please explain how Judge's numbers project to "well above" a .320 batting average when he's hitting .318 right now? His numbers project to exactly .318.
Judge won't play every game the rest of the year. I'll bet the house he gets more than 5.4 games off the rest of the way (2 times 2.7).
Hitters' numbers usually drop in the dog days of the season as the heat and grind take it's toll. Bonds had 17 home runs in May. 11 in June. 6 in July. 12 in August. And 12 in September. Add in that the Yankees have 40 games left against the Rays, Blue Jay, Astros and Mets, 13 against the Red Sox, who have rebounded, and three against the Guardians. Those teams are 2 through 6 in AL in pitching and the Mets are 6th in the NL.
The concepts of pace and trend have taken a beating in this thread.
After all these years suffering under the Mets old ownership, it's nice to know we have an owner that could actually make this happen.
I appreciate that djm, but not necessary. We can rib each other and not take it personally. All good my friend.
I think it will be Yankees vs some west coast team(s) for Judge.
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In comment 15732425 Matt M. said:
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In comment 15732334 DanMetroMan said:
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can't recommend "Rickey" by Howard Bryant any more highly for Yankee fans. I'm about 75% through the book and it's really a great read. I mentioned this the other day but Sandy Alderson didn't trust the A's scouting department so his asking price from the Yankees came via Baseball America's top 10 list lol. Also (and maybe this is well known by Yankee fans)
1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it
2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening
#1 I recall. #2 I don't remember ever hearing. What are the details around that?
Per Bryant, Mattingly was fed up with Steinbrenner and said something suggesting that while The Boss paid him, it was like pulling teeth and he wasn't shown "respect" so Thrift was engaged in talks with Texas before they landed Palmeiro instead.
The 1980's was a very frustrating decade for the yankees and mattingly. I still say moving Righetti to closer was a wrong move to this day. The pitching staff never recovered from having a true Ace.
Now, his bet on himself looks great...if he stays healthy. One nagging injury that last more than a few days and this narrative shifts. Don't forget, he will turn 31 next year. A contract taking him into his 40s is not wise, in my opinion.
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In comment 15732334 DanMetroMan said:
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can't recommend "Rickey" by Howard Bryant any more highly for Yankee fans. I'm about 75% through the book and it's really a great read. I mentioned this the other day but Sandy Alderson didn't trust the A's scouting department so his asking price from the Yankees came via Baseball America's top 10 list lol. Also (and maybe this is well known by Yankee fans)
1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it
2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening
#1 I recall. #2 I don't remember ever hearing. What are the details around that?
Per Bryant, Mattingly was fed up with Steinbrenner and said something suggesting that while The Boss paid him, it was like pulling teeth and he wasn't shown "respect" so Thrift was engaged in talks with Texas before they landed Palmeiro instead.
I think it will be Yankees vs some west coast team(s) for Judge.
Yankee fans will hate him. Mets fans will love him. Yankees-Mets would become more of a rivalry, maybe. Maybe.
Judge to the Mets seems unlikely to me but it's possible. The Mets' owner has the deep pockets for once. Depends on how much Judge likes NYC and his relationship with the Yankees. If he wants to stay in NYC, the Yankees make more sense. Unless the Mets throw crazy money at him.
Second, I don't think the Yankees were wrong to limit the years on their offer given Judge's age. Also, he's only been healthy for most of the season twice in his 6 year mlb career before now.
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I don't think it mentioned Texas specifically but Donnie talked about having a standoff with Steinbrenner over "respect" and that Steinbrenner told him they were going to deal him.
Unfortunately, I don't think I have access to that programming, which is why I haven't yet watched it. I would like very much to watch it.
The thing that killed me was near the end when it is pointed out that it has been more than 25 years since he last swung a bat for the Yankees. Holy cow! How is that possible? I swear I remember 1995 like yesterday. I miss Don Mattingly.
Robinson Cano isn't in the same league as Judge. One guy is a perfect MLB specimen. If you were building a player on MLB the Show, you are building Judge. I understand 10 years is extremely risky and usually doesn't work out, but thats probably what it will take.
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I think there will be multiple teams willing to give Judge a crazy contract and I don't see Judge as the kind of guy that wants have the city hating him. If he goes to SF, he won't be the target of hatred because he will be in another world(NL, plus west coast).
I think it will be Yankees vs some west coast team(s) for Judge.
Why would New York City hate him if he signs with a New York team?
Yankee fans will hate him. Mets fans will love him. Yankees-Mets would become more of a rivalry, maybe. Maybe.
Judge to the Mets seems unlikely to me but it's possible. The Mets' owner has the deep pockets for once. Depends on how much Judge likes NYC and his relationship with the Yankees. If he wants to stay in NYC, the Yankees make more sense. Unless the Mets throw crazy money at him.
It was a typo. Should say...half the city will hate him.
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At age 30? Two words. Robinson Cano.
Robinson Cano isn't in the same league as Judge. One guy is a perfect MLB specimen. If you were building a player on MLB the Show, you are building Judge. I understand 10 years is extremely risky and usually doesn't work out, but thats probably what it will take.
Do you think Judge is going to be worth $30-plus million at 40? 39? 38? Do you think his body, at his size, will hold up? I don't. I've seen enough Yankee teams have no chance because they were filled with aging players. Stanton has seven more years. Imagine how much the Yankees will have tied up in those two when Judge is 37 and Stanton is 39. Then add in the $36 million for a 38 year old Cole the same year.
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In comment 15732712 k2tampa said:
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At age 30? Two words. Robinson Cano.
Robinson Cano isn't in the same league as Judge. One guy is a perfect MLB specimen. If you were building a player on MLB the Show, you are building Judge. I understand 10 years is extremely risky and usually doesn't work out, but thats probably what it will take.
Do you think Judge is going to be worth $30-plus million at 40? 39? 38? Do you think his body, at his size, will hold up? I don't. I've seen enough Yankee teams have no chance because they were filled with aging players. Stanton has seven more years. Imagine how much the Yankees will have tied up in those two when Judge is 37 and Stanton is 39. Then add in the $36 million for a 38 year old Cole the same year.
I doubt you'll find someone that believes he'll still be mashing and play every night at 37.....I understand what you're saying, but not necessarily the point you're making....of course they'll be paying old guys. that's the nature of the beast that is MLB superstars.
This is baseball. You're paying to have them in their "prime" and swallowing that they're paid through the end of their career basically. It's how this works. If NY doesnt SF or NYM will.
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In comment 15733081 Kmed6000 said:
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In comment 15732712 k2tampa said:
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At age 30? Two words. Robinson Cano.
Robinson Cano isn't in the same league as Judge. One guy is a perfect MLB specimen. If you were building a player on MLB the Show, you are building Judge. I understand 10 years is extremely risky and usually doesn't work out, but thats probably what it will take.
Do you think Judge is going to be worth $30-plus million at 40? 39? 38? Do you think his body, at his size, will hold up? I don't. I've seen enough Yankee teams have no chance because they were filled with aging players. Stanton has seven more years. Imagine how much the Yankees will have tied up in those two when Judge is 37 and Stanton is 39. Then add in the $36 million for a 38 year old Cole the same year.
I doubt you'll find someone that believes he'll still be mashing and play every night at 37.....I understand what you're saying, but not necessarily the point you're making....of course they'll be paying old guys. that's the nature of the beast that is MLB superstars.
This is baseball. You're paying to have them in their "prime" and swallowing that they're paid through the end of their career basically. It's how this works. If NY doesnt SF or NYM will.
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In comment 15732712 k2tampa said:
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At age 30? Two words. Robinson Cano.
Robinson Cano isn't in the same league as Judge. One guy is a perfect MLB specimen. If you were building a player on MLB the Show, you are building Judge. I understand 10 years is extremely risky and usually doesn't work out, but thats probably what it will take.
Do you think Judge is going to be worth $30-plus million at 40? 39? 38? Do you think his body, at his size, will hold up? I don't. I've seen enough Yankee teams have no chance because they were filled with aging players. Stanton has seven more years. Imagine how much the Yankees will have tied up in those two when Judge is 37 and Stanton is 39. Then add in the $36 million for a 38 year old Cole the same year.
Where did this train of thought come from that with his body and size, he won't hold up. Please show me examples of this being true. He's not an NFL player and he's built unlike anyone else I've seen in MLB. Why are people so convinced that his size will be a detriment to him playing late into his 30's?
I honestly didn't realize how good Frank Howard was from 1967-71. He put up some monster seasons.
Please show me examples of how big guys break down more and let me know if any of them were built like Judge.
I honestly didn't realize how good Frank Howard was from 1967-71. He put up some monster seasons.
Met Frank Howard in the mid-90's when he was a Mets coach and he was absolutely MASSIVE, tall, broad shoulders, the whole 9
Judge is basically the same size as Julius Peppers. Same height and maybe 10 pounds lighter.
Judge is basically the same size as Julius Peppers. Same height and maybe 10 pounds lighter.
Thats insane to think about because Frank Thomas was massive lol
Judge is listed at 6'7" and 282. Don't know how accurate that is, but I don't think Judge is 40 lbs heavier. I would however think that Judge's BMI is way lower.