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NFT: Aaron Judge on pace to win a Triple Crown

MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 12:16 pm
24 HR, 71 Hits, 48 RBI's, through 60 games. This forecast out to 68 HR, 203 hits, 147 RBI's. The overall numbers would make it the best triple crown numbers ever. I tried researching with Baseball-reference and could not find a better number for a player. Gehrig comes close. I left out AVG but the forecast indicates he will be above 320 for average over that time.

Based on the schedule, I think he can do this so long as he stays healthy.
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Sounds like a great year  
JayBinQueens : 6/14/2022 12:19 pm : link
To have on a contract year
I'm on pace to win the triple crown too.  
Mike in Long Beach : 6/14/2022 12:22 pm : link
Just have to exclude home runs and RBIs like you excluded batting average for Judge.
Hits are not part of a triple crown season  
Pego61 : 6/14/2022 12:25 pm : link
so while he's having an amazing season, he's not on pace to win a triple crown. Even if you swapped in average for hits, he's nowhere near the average leaders. He's 44 points behind Arraez, 29 points behind J.D. Martinez.

Again, phenomenal year but not a triple crown year. MVP, you bet.
Marty  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 12:26 pm : link
the triple crown is a specific "stat". It's HR's, Batting average and RBI. Judge is having an incredible season, he is not on pace to win a triple crown. Arraez is hitting .362, Judge .318. Judge is 6th in the AL in BA, 2nd in RBI (Ramirez).
Judge  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 12:28 pm : link
should be the favorite for AL MVP. Leads in fWAR on the best team in baseball. Jose Ramirez is probably 2nd.
So the triple crown  
Mike from Ohio : 6/14/2022 12:29 pm : link
is no longer HR, Avg and RBIs, but whatever three stats someone likes?

What an odd post.
Yankees gambled and lost....  
Kmed6000 : 6/14/2022 12:31 pm : link
or at least they are losing big time. This may turn into a 10 year 400 million dollar contract if they want to keep him. Brutal job trying to lowball Judge.
Considering  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 12:35 pm : link
the way the game is played now (launch angle, strikeouts etc) Arraez is truly incredible. Career .322 hitter, more walks than strikeouts. The other guy who stands out is Tim Anderson. Since 2019 (335 games) he's hitting .326. You just don't see guys like that in today's game.
RE: Yankees gambled and lost....  
UConn4523 : 6/14/2022 12:39 pm : link
In comment 15732326 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
or at least they are losing big time. This may turn into a 10 year 400 million dollar contract if they want to keep him. Brutal job trying to lowball Judge.


I think he has a chance of being the first half billion contract in US sports. Not a big chance, but a chance (he probably does if he's a couple years younger). He should get more than Trout though, IMO.
I  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 12:42 pm : link
can't recommend "Rickey" by Howard Bryant any more highly for Yankee fans. I'm about 75% through the book and it's really a great read. I mentioned this the other day but Sandy Alderson didn't trust the A's scouting department so his asking price from the Yankees came via Baseball America's top 10 list lol. Also (and maybe this is well known by Yankee fans)

1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it

2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening
I don't see him getting 1/2 billion  
Kmed6000 : 6/14/2022 12:42 pm : link
because like you said, he will be 31, but he will def be pushing $40 million per, the big question will be who will give him that 10th year? I think someone may.
''Of all the dramatic things!''  
sb from NYT Forum : 6/14/2022 12:43 pm : link
[checks notes... Judge 10th in batting average]

Well, that's baseball Susan
RE: Yankees gambled and lost....  
MNP70 : 6/14/2022 12:50 pm : link
In comment 15732326 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
or at least they are losing big time. This may turn into a 10 year 400 million dollar contract if they want to keep him. Brutal job trying to lowball Judge.


Cashman finally reached out to Judge's agent last week. Hadn't spoken since spring training.
RE: I don't see him getting 1/2 billion  
UConn4523 : 6/14/2022 12:55 pm : link
In comment 15732338 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
because like you said, he will be 31, but he will def be pushing $40 million per, the big question will be who will give him that 10th year? I think someone may.


I agree, the age will prevent it.
Wait till he gets to the Belmont  
mort christenson : 6/14/2022 1:13 pm : link
then we will see if he has a shot.
RE: I'm on pace to win the triple crown too.  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 1:23 pm : link
In comment 15732314 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
Just have to exclude home runs and RBIs like you excluded batting average for Judge.


True, I left out average but he is leading in three major Categories right now. Call it a revised triple Crown but for him to put up these numbers they are pretty awesome. He still has outside shot of getting avg up.
Judge is going to get insane $$$ this offseason  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 1:28 pm : link
These numbers except for average are better than Mickey Mantle's 1956 season. Mantle hit 353 and its possible judge could get to that average if he cuts down on strikeouts.
RE: Yankees gambled and lost....  
Strahan91 : 6/14/2022 1:32 pm : link
In comment 15732326 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
or at least they are losing big time. This may turn into a 10 year 400 million dollar contract if they want to keep him. Brutal job trying to lowball Judge.

I bet he gets something in line with what he was asking for anyways. The Yankees made a fair offer at the time and Judge wanted more than anyone would've pegged his value at before this season. As long as he stays healthy he'll likely get what he initially was looking for, but I can't see him blowing past $35M AAV for 8-9 years.
RE: RE: I'm on pace to win the triple crown too.  
Mad Mike : 6/14/2022 1:32 pm : link
In comment 15732379 MartyNJ1969 said:
Quote:
True, I left out average but he is leading in three major Categories right now. Call it a revised triple Crown but for him to put up these numbers they are pretty awesome. He still has outside shot of getting avg up.

Well actually you left out not only average but rbi's too, since he's not on pace to lead the league in that either. If your "revised" triple crown is HR's, runs, and ops, then you're right on. I wonder if mlb will have a ceremony to celebrate that trifecta.
RE: RE: I'm on pace to win the triple crown too.  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 1:33 pm : link
In comment 15732379 MartyNJ1969 said:
Quote:
In comment 15732314 Mike in Long Beach said:


Quote:


Just have to exclude home runs and RBIs like you excluded batting average for Judge.



True, I left out average but he is leading in three major Categories right now. Call it a revised triple Crown but for him to put up these numbers they are pretty awesome. He still has outside shot of getting avg up.


I wouldn't hang the hat on the average stat so long as Judge stays above 320, he is going to way outpace Mantle in Hits and RBI's compared to 1956 season if he keeps this up because he is going to have 1/4 more At bats this season because this team is going through the lineup 5-6 times a game ver the usual 3-4 for normal teams.
And calling it a lowball offer is a joke.  
Strahan91 : 6/14/2022 1:33 pm : link
It would have been the highest AAV contract for an Outfielder sans Mike Trout who is an all-time great and signed his deal at 27.
RE: RE: RE: I'm on pace to win the triple crown too.  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 1:40 pm : link
In comment 15732391 Mad Mike said:
Quote:
In comment 15732379 MartyNJ1969 said:


Quote:


True, I left out average but he is leading in three major Categories right now. Call it a revised triple Crown but for him to put up these numbers they are pretty awesome. He still has outside shot of getting avg up.


Well actually you left out not only average but rbi's too, since he's not on pace to lead the league in that either. If your "revised" triple crown is HR's, runs, and ops, then you're right on. I wonder if mlb will have a ceremony to celebrate that trifecta.



If you look at the last 25 games, Judge is trending to surpass Jose Ramirez and Pete Alonzo in RBI's. that is if he keeps his average above 320
RE: And calling it a lowball offer is a joke.  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 1:41 pm : link
In comment 15732393 Strahan91 said:
Quote:
It would have been the highest AAV contract for an Outfielder sans Mike Trout who is an all-time great and signed his deal at 27.


and he plays a great CF too. He might win a gold glove to boot.
Over  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 1:43 pm : link
the last 30 days Paul Goldschmidt leads baseball in RBI (triple crown is league specific but because you mentioned Alonso). The AL Leader in RBI over the last 30 days is Jose Ramirez (27) Judge has 21, or 6th in the AL) over that time.
RE: Marty  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 1:43 pm : link
In comment 15732319 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the triple crown is a specific "stat". It's HR's, Batting average and RBI. Judge is having an incredible season, he is not on pace to win a triple crown. Arraez is hitting .362, Judge .318. Judge is 6th in the AL in BA, 2nd in RBI (Ramirez).


Dan, Project out the number of At bats Judge is going to have with this team vs those players you mentioned. He won't get the average but he will pass Alonzo and Ramirez in RBI's and hits.
RE: RE: Marty  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 1:49 pm : link
In comment 15732406 MartyNJ1969 said:
Quote:
In comment 15732319 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


the triple crown is a specific "stat". It's HR's, Batting average and RBI. Judge is having an incredible season, he is not on pace to win a triple crown. Arraez is hitting .362, Judge .318. Judge is 6th in the AL in BA, 2nd in RBI (Ramirez).



Dan, Project out the number of At bats Judge is going to have with this team vs those players you mentioned. He won't get the average but he will pass Alonzo and Ramirez in RBI's and hits.


0% snark, no idea what this means.

He's nowhere near a triple crown. Alonso has no impact on Judge winning triple crown, Arraez's 42 point advantage on average does.
I  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 1:52 pm : link
don't understand "trending toward" means here. Ramirez has more RBI than Judge over the last 30 days, what is this "trend"? Ramirez 27, Judge 21
Right  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 1:55 pm : link
now I'd go leaders-


AL MVP Judge with Ramirez on his tail and Devers third
NL MVP Too close to call between Betts/Goldschmidt/Machado
RE: I  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 2:00 pm : link
In comment 15732414 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
don't understand "trending toward" means here. Ramirez has more RBI than Judge over the last 30 days, what is this "trend"? Ramirez 27, Judge 21


The trend is Judge is going to have way more at bats then Ramirez going forward with the 4th weakest schedule. He is going to get 5 to 6 at bats per game for at least 70 of the remaining games. Ramirez is not. The ore at bats gives judge the opportunity for more RBI's
RE: Yankees gambled and lost....  
Matt M. : 6/14/2022 2:04 pm : link
In comment 15732326 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
or at least they are losing big time. This may turn into a 10 year 400 million dollar contract if they want to keep him. Brutal job trying to lowball Judge.
I don't think they gambled and lost. I think they made a more than fair offer. Judge gambled on himself and, so far, he's won.
In any event, the numbers Judge is pacing to put up is staggering  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 2:05 pm : link
Don't think I have seen this in my lifetime and I am 53.
RE: I  
Matt M. : 6/14/2022 2:06 pm : link
In comment 15732334 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
can't recommend "Rickey" by Howard Bryant any more highly for Yankee fans. I'm about 75% through the book and it's really a great read. I mentioned this the other day but Sandy Alderson didn't trust the A's scouting department so his asking price from the Yankees came via Baseball America's top 10 list lol. Also (and maybe this is well known by Yankee fans)

1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it

2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening
#1 I recall. #2 I don't remember ever hearing. What are the details around that?
RE: RE: Yankees gambled and lost....  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 2:07 pm : link
In comment 15732423 Matt M. said:
Quote:
In comment 15732326 Kmed6000 said:


Quote:


or at least they are losing big time. This may turn into a 10 year 400 million dollar contract if they want to keep him. Brutal job trying to lowball Judge.

I don't think they gambled and lost. I think they made a more than fair offer. Judge gambled on himself and, so far, he's won.


Judge deserves every penny what's coming to him. Just astounding what he is doing right now.
RE: RE: I  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 2:09 pm : link
In comment 15732425 Matt M. said:
Quote:
In comment 15732334 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


can't recommend "Rickey" by Howard Bryant any more highly for Yankee fans. I'm about 75% through the book and it's really a great read. I mentioned this the other day but Sandy Alderson didn't trust the A's scouting department so his asking price from the Yankees came via Baseball America's top 10 list lol. Also (and maybe this is well known by Yankee fans)

1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it

2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening

#1 I recall. #2 I don't remember ever hearing. What are the details around that?


Per Bryant, Mattingly was fed up with Steinbrenner and said something suggesting that while The Boss paid him, it was like pulling teeth and he wasn't shown "respect" so Thrift was engaged in talks with Texas before they landed Palmeiro instead.
RE: RE: RE: Marty  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 2:10 pm : link
In comment 15732413 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15732406 MartyNJ1969 said:


Quote:


In comment 15732319 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


the triple crown is a specific "stat". It's HR's, Batting average and RBI. Judge is having an incredible season, he is not on pace to win a triple crown. Arraez is hitting .362, Judge .318. Judge is 6th in the AL in BA, 2nd in RBI (Ramirez).



Dan, Project out the number of At bats Judge is going to have with this team vs those players you mentioned. He won't get the average but he will pass Alonzo and Ramirez in RBI's and hits.



0% snark, no idea what this means.

He's nowhere near a triple crown. Alonso has no impact on Judge winning triple crown, Arraez's 42 point advantage on average does.


I really don't think Arraez will keep up that average. He is going to cool off after all star break with that schedule he has to play.
RE: RE: I  
Section331 : 6/14/2022 2:10 pm : link
In comment 15732421 MartyNJ1969 said:
Quote:
In comment 15732414 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


don't understand "trending toward" means here. Ramirez has more RBI than Judge over the last 30 days, what is this "trend"? Ramirez 27, Judge 21



The trend is Judge is going to have way more at bats then Ramirez going forward with the 4th weakest schedule. He is going to get 5 to 6 at bats per game for at least 70 of the remaining games. Ramirez is not. The ore at bats gives judge the opportunity for more RBI's


PA leaders typically average around 4.5 per game, and those are the leaders. How the hell is Judge going to average "5 or 6" AB's (or PA's)? You're just making up numbers.
RE: RE: RE: I  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 2:13 pm : link
In comment 15732427 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15732425 Matt M. said:


Quote:


In comment 15732334 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


can't recommend "Rickey" by Howard Bryant any more highly for Yankee fans. I'm about 75% through the book and it's really a great read. I mentioned this the other day but Sandy Alderson didn't trust the A's scouting department so his asking price from the Yankees came via Baseball America's top 10 list lol. Also (and maybe this is well known by Yankee fans)

1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it

2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening

#1 I recall. #2 I don't remember ever hearing. What are the details around that?



Per Bryant, Mattingly was fed up with Steinbrenner and said something suggesting that while The Boss paid him, it was like pulling teeth and he wasn't shown "respect" so Thrift was engaged in talks with Texas before they landed Palmeiro instead.


The 1980's was a very frustrating decade for the yankees and mattingly. I still say moving Righetti to closer was a wrong move to this day. The pitching staff never recovered from having a true Ace.
RE: RE: RE: I  
MartyNJ1969 : 6/14/2022 2:17 pm : link
In comment 15732432 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 15732421 MartyNJ1969 said:


Quote:


In comment 15732414 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


don't understand "trending toward" means here. Ramirez has more RBI than Judge over the last 30 days, what is this "trend"? Ramirez 27, Judge 21



The trend is Judge is going to have way more at bats then Ramirez going forward with the 4th weakest schedule. He is going to get 5 to 6 at bats per game for at least 70 of the remaining games. Ramirez is not. The ore at bats gives judge the opportunity for more RBI's



PA leaders typically average around 4.5 per game, and those are the leaders. How the hell is Judge going to average "5 or 6" AB's (or PA's)? You're just making up numbers.


Dan, The team is putting up double digit runs like nobody's business and the schedule overall is weak going forward. Judge is going to get to 5 at bats average over rest of season..this is what i see. There's the Yankees Lineup rotation and then there is everyone else.
Marty  
DanMetroMan : 6/14/2022 2:20 pm : link
all due respect, I think this has run it's course. I don't want anybody to get the impression I'm knocking Judge. He's been truly absurdly good and if the season ended today he'd likely be AL MVP.
The MLB Mattingly doc touched on Mattingly almost getting traded  
Greg from LI : 6/14/2022 2:30 pm : link
I don't think it mentioned Texas specifically but Donnie talked about having a standoff with Steinbrenner over "respect" and that Steinbrenner told him they were going to deal him.
RE: RE: And calling it a lowball offer is a joke.  
Kmed6000 : 6/14/2022 2:40 pm : link
In comment 15732402 MartyNJ1969 said:
Quote:
In comment 15732393 Strahan91 said:


Quote:


It would have been the highest AAV contract for an Outfielder sans Mike Trout who is an all-time great and signed his deal at 27.



and he plays a great CF too. He might win a gold glove to boot.


Is it? is it a joke champ? It was a joke. They didn't even rip up his arbitration year, they were looking to tack on teh new deal after the arbitration year. It was a massive lowball. They were about $75 million apart and Judge knew his value. Say it with me....LOWBALL.
By the way,  
Kmed6000 : 6/14/2022 2:42 pm : link
I said it at the time too. The Yankees tried to play games and now they are going to pay for it. Either by losing a top 3 position player or paying him $100M more than what they would have if they were being fair.
RE: I  
Stu11 : 6/14/2022 2:46 pm : link
In comment 15732334 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
can't recommend "Rickey" by Howard Bryant any more highly for Yankee fans. I'm about 75% through the book and it's really a great read. I mentioned this the other day but Sandy Alderson didn't trust the A's scouting department so his asking price from the Yankees came via Baseball America's top 10 list lol. Also (and maybe this is well known by Yankee fans)

1. Steinbrenner didn't want Henderson, Billy Martin had to talk him into it

2. Mattingly to Texas was very close to happening

Michael Kay had the author on for a long interview last week. It does sound really interesting. Ricky definitely was a character.
It looks to me like they tried getting him to bite  
UConn4523 : 6/14/2022 2:46 pm : link
on a discount and it didn’t work. I also don’t think “splitting the difference” would have worked. Judge wanted his asking price and then bet on himself to get it. As long as he doesn’t get injured, he will get it (and then some).
I wonder if the Yankees  
Kmed6000 : 6/14/2022 2:47 pm : link
offered Judge what he was asking before the season, if he'd even accept at this point.
RE: I wonder if the Yankees  
RasputinPrime : 6/14/2022 2:55 pm : link
In comment 15732466 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
offered Judge what he was asking before the season, if he'd even accept at this point.


Judge is a leader and he is going to put it all in the middle. It's great to watch.
RE: Considering  
Victor in CT : 6/14/2022 3:02 pm : link
In comment 15732327 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the way the game is played now (launch angle, strikeouts etc) Arraez is truly incredible. Career .322 hitter, more walks than strikeouts. The other guy who stands out is Tim Anderson. Since 2019 (335 games) he's hitting .326. You just don't see guys like that in today's game.


which to me is sad. nothing more boring then HR, K, BB except maybe NBA 3 pt. launching
RE: And calling it a lowball offer is a joke.  
djm : 6/14/2022 3:13 pm : link
In comment 15732393 Strahan91 said:
Quote:
It would have been the highest AAV contract for an Outfielder sans Mike Trout who is an all-time great and signed his deal at 27.


Fans gotta blame someone or bitch about something.

Meanwhile, in the real world, a good chunk of fans here and everywhere were questioning Judge's long term and even present potential and staying power. I remember laughing at threads...literally.

So now the Yanks blew it...that's rich.

He will be signed by the Yanks and then you can worry about the contract and bitch when Judge misses a month due to some typical injury that nearly every player endures.

Enjoy the season. Don't sweat the money.
RE: By the way,  
djm : 6/14/2022 3:16 pm : link
In comment 15732460 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
I said it at the time too. The Yankees tried to play games and now they are going to pay for it. Either by losing a top 3 position player or paying him $100M more than what they would have if they were being fair.


Really?
RE: RE: And calling it a lowball offer is a joke.  
Kmed6000 : 6/14/2022 3:19 pm : link
In comment 15732492 djm said:
Quote:
In comment 15732393 Strahan91 said:


Quote:


It would have been the highest AAV contract for an Outfielder sans Mike Trout who is an all-time great and signed his deal at 27.



Fans gotta blame someone or bitch about something.

Meanwhile, in the real world, a good chunk of fans here and everywhere were questioning Judge's long term and even present potential and staying power. I remember laughing at threads...literally.

So now the Yanks blew it...that's rich.

He will be signed by the Yanks and then you can worry about the contract and bitch when Judge misses a month due to some typical injury that nearly every player endures.

Enjoy the season. Don't sweat the money.


Lol so because you were wrong(you usually are), that means I'm bitching? Judge was always a top 3 MLB position player and contracts are out of control. You don't draw the line with Judge pal.
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