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NFT: Mets Minors 6/16/2022

DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 10:39 am
AAA Fisher
AA Vargas
A+ Vasil
A Ziegler


AAA
Vientos 2-5, HR, 3 k's (slugging .864 over 7 June games)
Dom 0-4, BB, K
Mangum 1-5
Ritter 1-4, 2b (2 errors)
Meyer 0-2, 2 BB, K
Palka 2-5, 2b
Medina 1 inning 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 0 k's
Hunter 1 inning 2 hits 0 runs 0 walks 0 k's

AA game 1
Alvarez 3-5, 2b, K
Mauricio 1-5, HR, 3 k's
Baty 2-5, 2b, SB, K
Cortes 2-3, HR, BB
Butto 6 innings 5 hits 1 run 2 walks 5 k's

AA game 2
Alvarez 0-2, BB
Young 1-3
Mauricio 0-3, 2 k's (Mauricio is hitting for power this month but not much else .224/.291/.490 line for June)
Senger 0-3, 2 k's
Cortes 0-3

A+ (game 1)
Schwartz 1-3
McIIwain 1-3, 3b
Palmer 1-2, BB, K
Newton 1-3, HR, K
Santos 5.2 innings 3 hits 1 run 1 walk 4 k's (Junior Santos last 6 starts 29.2 innings 24 hits 9 walks 26 k's 2.77 era )

BK2
McIIwain 2-4, 2b, K
Palmer 1-3, BB, K

St. Lucie
Ramirez 0-4, K
Tillien 0-4
Consuegra 2-2, HR, 2 BB (Stan "The Man" Consuegra now has a 1.191 OPS in June including 3 homers, 3 doubles, 2 triples, 3 steals and 8 walks over 39 ab's )
ODLS 1-4, 2 k's
Dominguez 1-4, 3 k's
Lugo 1-2, 2 BB
Hamel 6.2 innings 1 run 1 hit 4 walks 7 k's (Very solid outing for Hamel, but walks remain an issue. He's now issued 28 walks over 48.2 innings pitched)
Beck 2.1 innings 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 2 k's
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As  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 11:42 am : link
I noted Mauricio’s st lucie line is nearly identical to the T. Baty has always had the stigma of a player that ran high exit velocities but needed to increase his lift (ala JD Davis). ’ve been legitimately searching around for situations where players posted OBP this low in AA in recent years that ended up successful MLB regulars and I’m coming up very short.

O’Neil Cruz is one of the top prospects in baseball and scouts still maintain concern he will post low OBP because of his swing decisions/walk rate and even he posted a .346 OBP last year in AA. Elly De La Cruz from the Reds was a “if this guy ever figures it out at the plate he could be a monster” and even he has a .343 career OBP, .346 this year (side note is this kid could be a future MVP, quite the talent) … anyway I hope to be proven wrong but Mauricio’s red flags offensively are glaring more brightly as they continue to show zero signs of improvement
RE: His  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 11:48 am : link
In comment 15733793 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
2021 numbers in St. Lucie look very much in line with this.

.278 BABIP, .207 ISO, 5.7% walk rate, 24% K rate

2022

.281 BABIP, .213 ISO, 4.8 walk rate, 23.8% K rate, almost shockingly so

.242/.290/.449 last season

.245/.286/.458 this season

How much closer could you possibly get?


you couldn't but the batted ball data is very different. He cut his GB/FB rate dramatically. his ground ball to flyball rate was 2.5 at AA last year which was his career high. Only 20% of his batted balls in AA last year were fly balls and 25% of those fly balls were homers. exit velocities would give us a more complete picture but it seems very likely someone observed that good things were happening when he got the ball in the air in 2021 and he should do it more this year.

in all of his previous seasons he ranged between 1.4-2.5 ground balls to fly balls and this year he's under 1 for the first time at .9. he more than doubled the number of flyballs from last year from 20% in 2021 to 45%.

the negative is that the number of homers hasn't increased with more fly balls - it's remained the same. he's hitting twice as many fly balls as last year and only half as many are going out (his HR/FB rate went from 25% to 13% - which would corroborate what Seidler is saying that maybe there have been pitch selection issues).

I would guess that if he doesn't get more efficient with this approach on improve the % of flyballs turning into homers they will adjust his approach to hitting fewer flyballs.
Eric  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 11:49 am : link
I’m legitimately confused. You believe they are coaching him to pull the ball but not walk more than 5% of the time? Basic player development is worry about the other stuff first, the power “will come”, not “hit for power and then figure out good pitches to swing at and which you lay off” why would that be different for Mauricio than anybody else?
the AA data last year is SSS but it was similar to A+  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 11:49 am : link
so the trend is there just not as pronounced as the numbers i mentioned above.
St. Lucie also  
Pete in MD : 6/16/2022 11:51 am : link
clinched the FSL East Division 1st Half Championship with 7 games remaining. I think they are 39-19.

For those unaware, because of player call-ups and whatnot, the 1st half and second half winners will playoff with one another at the season's end.
Ive  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 11:52 am : link
Been clicking around and I’ve yet to hit on a good comparable, very low AA OBP at an appropriate age aka he’s not some teen way above his head that is now a good MLB regular
Offensively. If such players exist they are exceedingly rare/outliers
RE: St. Lucie also  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 11:55 am : link
In comment 15733831 Pete in MD said:
Quote:
clinched the FSL East Division 1st Half Championship with 7 games remaining. I think they are 39-19.

For those unaware, because of player call-ups and whatnot, the 1st half and second half winners will playoff with one another at the season's end.


FCL is pretty mediocre this year prospect wise because they sent most of the interesting guys to St. Lucie but both teams should add some fun talent post draft (with FSL obviously losing some of their current guys to BK)
RE: Eric  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 11:56 am : link
In comment 15733827 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
I’m legitimately confused. You believe they are coaching him to pull the ball but not walk more than 5% of the time? Basic player development is worry about the other stuff first, the power “will come”, not “hit for power and then figure out good pitches to swing at and which you lay off” why would that be different for Mauricio than anybody else?


no dan i think improving pitch selection/walking is a constant every player is working on concurrently with whatever kind of contact they are looking to make. the goal of every at bat is hard contact which comes from good pitch selection and not being overaggressive on pitches out of the zone. nobodies goal is always the opposite of a strikeout or weak contact.

the contact approach is what im speculating on - when you get your pitch what are you trying to do with it? I think the plan has been to put the ball in the air, and with understandable reason season since he hit such a % out last year when he did that (20% at A+ and 25% at AA).

i am not saying this approach has been successful or that mauricio has some underlying reason for optimism. just that he is clearly doing something different this year than last on contact. the pitch selection seems the same.
that should say "nobody's goal is weak contact or a strikeout"  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 12:00 pm : link
mcneil, alonso, nimmo, marte, etc are all very different hitters in terms of where the ball goes when they hit it. but they are all trying to "95 or walk".
Eric  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 12:10 pm : link
If I told you before the season this would be his stat line what would you reaction be? I know a sub .300 OBP would be greatly disappointing to me, far more so than if he were hitting for less power than expected this year (something that was already clearly there).
RE: great news on Hamel's outing  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 12:16 pm : link
In comment 15733764 KDavies said:
Quote:
I wonder how quick it is before we see Hunter. Has to be better than the Reeds of the world. 8 scoreless innings last year before getting injured


You got your wish. Hunter called up
Simon  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 12:19 pm : link
Juan goes yard. Struggled a bit early on but he’s heating up.
RE: Eric  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 12:20 pm : link
In comment 15733846 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
If I told you before the season this would be his stat line what would you reaction be? I know a sub .300 OBP would be greatly disappointing to me, far more so than if he were hitting for less power than expected this year (something that was already clearly there).


the lack of progress walking is a negative but overall i'd say my reaction to this season is neutral. At A+ last year he had a 94 wRC. He got promoted because of the power (19 homers, .207 iso).

maintaining/slightly improving those numbers at AA isn't a total disappointment imo. his RC is 101 and his iso is .213.

it appears he's trying something different at a new level and he has neither progressed or regressed. he hasn't yet found an approach that clicked but the only way to get there is to keep trying new things.
also i've never been overly high on mauricio  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 12:23 pm : link
so my neutral reaction is maybe from a slightly different base level expectation. he is a tools guy who may or may not ever find a tool box. im glad he's trying different approaches because he does likely need something new to click in terms of his approach.
I  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 12:25 pm : link
Assume Reed
Is who they dump but the corresponding move hasn’t been announced. Lopez another option. Hunter’s numbers were more okay than great but reports were he was throwing well.
RE: also i've never been overly high on mauricio  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 12:31 pm : link
In comment 15733858 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
so my neutral reaction is maybe from a slightly different base level expectation. he is a tools guy who may or may not ever find a tool box. im glad he's trying different approaches because he does likely need something new to click in terms of his approach.


My basic thought is this..: when I was younger I absolutely loved the toolsy prospects regardless of their red flags. When it became apparently that swing decisions formerly known as plate discipline was far harder to develop than it appeared, I took down my excitement over such prospects a notch. At this point Mauricio reaching his “ceiling” aka all-star or good MLB above average regular looks less likely to me than it did before he became an oversized SS with good but not special power projection ala Cruz and a likely low OBP. At SS maybe he’s a regular for another team. As a starting CO, I think hed leave a lot to be desired unless he suddenly develops a significantly better plan at the plate
So  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 12:48 pm : link
Much for my Cam Collier dream…
Law has him #2… Wowzas.
No  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 1:19 pm : link
Robo umps for 2023
RE: RE: also i've never been overly high on mauricio  
KDavies : 6/16/2022 1:42 pm : link
In comment 15733867 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15733858 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


so my neutral reaction is maybe from a slightly different base level expectation. he is a tools guy who may or may not ever find a tool box. im glad he's trying different approaches because he does likely need something new to click in terms of his approach.



My basic thought is this..: when I was younger I absolutely loved the toolsy prospects regardless of their red flags. When it became apparently that swing decisions formerly known as plate discipline was far harder to develop than it appeared, I took down my excitement over such prospects a notch. At this point Mauricio reaching his “ceiling” aka all-star or good MLB above average regular looks less likely to me than it did before he became an oversized SS with good but not special power projection ala Cruz and a likely low OBP. At SS maybe he’s a regular for another team. As a starting CO, I think hed leave a lot to be desired unless he suddenly develops a significantly better plan at the plate


I'm with you on that. Not very high on Mauricio. I am a hit tool guy above all else. See way too many of the toolsy players fail.
Mauricio's upside for me  
KDavies : 6/16/2022 1:46 pm : link
is a 7 or 8 hitter on a team the Mets are going to put out in the next decade. Honestly, with Alvarez coming up, maybe an 8 or 9.
Can’t  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 1:52 pm : link
Wait for the draft. They should come away with multiple prospects who will slot into their top 15.
RE: Can’t  
moze1021 : 6/16/2022 2:00 pm : link
In comment 15733917 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Wait for the draft. They should come away with multiple prospects who will slot into their top 15.


Completely get why they pushed it back.. it makes all the sense in the world...

But I do miss getting to watch College World Series and see guys already drafted and know who they are playing for.. always thought that was cool.

But again, the new timing is just obviously better all around.
RE: Can’t  
Mike in NY : 6/16/2022 2:01 pm : link
In comment 15733917 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Wait for the draft. They should come away with multiple prospects who will slot into their top 15.


Do you select someone like Tucker Toman to a very underslot deal at 11 where you could save like $1.5-$2 Million (not counting still having the full allowed overage) and use that savings to stock up on high upside arms?
RE: RE: Can’t  
KDavies : 6/16/2022 2:14 pm : link
In comment 15733924 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15733917 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Wait for the draft. They should come away with multiple prospects who will slot into their top 15.



Completely get why they pushed it back.. it makes all the sense in the world...

But I do miss getting to watch College World Series and see guys already drafted and know who they are playing for.. always thought that was cool.

But again, the new timing is just obviously better all around.


Agreed 100%
RE: Can’t  
Metnut : 6/16/2022 2:14 pm : link
In comment 15733917 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Wait for the draft. They should come away with multiple prospects who will slot into their top 15.


Any chance the Mets “blow up” the draft and just take BPA every round and try to sign everyone?
RE: RE: Can’t  
Mike in NY : 6/16/2022 2:18 pm : link
In comment 15733939 Metnut said:
Quote:
In comment 15733917 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Wait for the draft. They should come away with multiple prospects who will slot into their top 15.



Any chance the Mets “blow up” the draft and just take BPA every round and try to sign everyone?


With how unpredictable the draft is, I would not risk losing future picks.
agree with both of you here  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 2:53 pm : link
In comment 15733911 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15733867 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 15733858 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


so my neutral reaction is maybe from a slightly different base level expectation. he is a tools guy who may or may not ever find a tool box. im glad he's trying different approaches because he does likely need something new to click in terms of his approach.



My basic thought is this..: when I was younger I absolutely loved the toolsy prospects regardless of their red flags. When it became apparently that swing decisions formerly known as plate discipline was far harder to develop than it appeared, I took down my excitement over such prospects a notch. At this point Mauricio reaching his “ceiling” aka all-star or good MLB above average regular looks less likely to me than it did before he became an oversized SS with good but not special power projection ala Cruz and a likely low OBP. At SS maybe he’s a regular for another team. As a starting CO, I think hed leave a lot to be desired unless he suddenly develops a significantly better plan at the plate



I'm with you on that. Not very high on Mauricio. I am a hit tool guy above all else. See way too many of the toolsy players fail.


hit tool is the foundation that plays up (or down) all the others. that's why im high on contact rates and batting average because they indicate the guys who have the foundation.

re Mauricio I would still speculate that part of the decision to trade pca may have been anticipating him as a future CF. Law has also speculated that to be his future position and we know he's not playing SS for the Mets, so to me it's obvious OF is where he's going and no reason to not start him in CF since that's in many people's view the easiest place to read the ball off the bat and where a lot of converted SS go.

if he's good in CF i think maybe his upside is Mike Cameron-ish. Or maybe Granderson-ish without the walks is a better comp since he played all 3 OF spots? That's still a pretty good prospect but below Alvares/Vientos/Baty.

i think we all agree he's most likely to be traded of the big prospects but if he's not my guess is we see him in the OF in the 2nd half of the year. we are all probably just him hacking it in CF and having a slightly better 2nd half hitting away from being excited about him again. Especially if it appears Nimmo is on the way out the door.
vientos is officially ready for queens  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 3:01 pm : link
syracuse had a day game today and he with 1 for 4 with 1 2out RBI.

BA is .260 and OPS is .875. He's still striking out more than you want but there's never going to be a perfect time. Call him up now while the DH need is there and he's feeling good on a hot streak.
if Mauricio can play a passable CF  
KDavies : 6/16/2022 3:02 pm : link
that certainly increases his value to the Mets. A poor man's Mike Cameron with much lesser speed and defense may be a good comp. Mauricio doesn't have near the base stealing ability of Cameron, nor I doubt he has the defensive ability.
RE: if Mauricio can play a passable CF  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 3:07 pm : link
In comment 15733974 KDavies said:
Quote:
that certainly increases his value to the Mets. A poor man's Mike Cameron with much lesser speed and defense may be a good comp. Mauricio doesn't have near the base stealing ability of Cameron, nor I doubt he has the defensive ability.


agreed - Granderson may be the better comp but i'd probably guess mauricio's speed is closer to cameron's than his ability to walk will ever be to granderson's.

but i guess granderson's walk rate when he was younger wasn't what it ultimately became. his career .249 / .337 / .465 (115 rc) is actually pretty close to mauricio's minor league career so far. the ba and slg% are actually higher the obp lower.
man Cameron's line was close to that too .249 / .338 / .444 (107 rc)  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 3:11 pm : link
that's why i wouldn't get too down on Mauricio's year this year - he's doing the harder thing with the power he has consistently shown (.450+ slg the last 2 years). if he can find a position to play well he doesn't have to get that much better at pitch recognition to be a good player and he only just turned 21. he's just never going to be the level of prospect Alvarez is like we may have hoped 2-3 years ago but very few are.
Granderson  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 3:28 pm : link
had a .407 OBP in AA and a .382 career OBP. He was an on base machine. Career minor league line .300/.382/.493
Mike Cameron  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 3:31 pm : link
in AA had a .355 OBP, 12.89 BB% and a career .351 OBP, 10.9 BB%. Really not sure how Mauricio is comparable to either player (.300 career OBP, 5.09% walk rate)
Nogosek  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 3:38 pm : link
2 innings 2 hits 3 k's
Otanez 1 perfect 2 k's

Villavicencio 1-3, BB
Ramirez 4 innings 1 hit 5 k's
Ovalles wow 2.2 innings 2 hits 1 run 0 walks.... 7 k's
Both  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 3:41 pm : link
Juan and Sarmiento with their first pro homers
Schezer  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 3:53 pm : link
rehab start tuesday. He's hoping for only 1, I've heard the Mets plan is at least 2.
RE: that should say  
Shecky : 6/16/2022 4:00 pm : link
In comment 15733841 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
mcneil, alonso, nimmo, marte, etc are all very different hitters in terms of where the ball goes when they hit it. but they are all trying to "95 or walk".


Eric - very curious where you heard that last line??
Eric  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 4:02 pm : link
Chavez has been using that line.
.  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 4:05 pm : link
TMZ
@TMZ
·
53m
Former NY Mets prospect Darwyn Encarnacion died at 21 years old after a horrific car crash in the Dominican Republic.


RIP, admittedly I had never heard of him (not downplaying his death)
RE: Mike Cameron  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 4:10 pm : link
In comment 15733995 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
in AA had a .355 OBP, 12.89 BB% and a career .351 OBP, 10.9 BB%. Really not sure how Mauricio is comparable to either player (.300 career OBP, 5.09% walk rate)


it's a projection he's obviously never played OF before.

at 21 cameron was in A+ with 9 career homers in the minors (6 of them that year).

at 21 granderson was in college/A- ball. he didn't get to AA until he was 23 and he hit 20 homers with 14 steals, both numbers mauricio is on track to eclipse.

Mauricio at 21 is in AA with 37 career homeruns and on track for his second straight 20+ homer season.

All 3 are/were highly athletic and Cameron in particular had the bigger body type Mauricio seems to be growing into, albeit with more speed. Cameron was also obviously a very free swinger who himself had seasons with a sub-.300 OBP. his OBP was .319 in his first year with the mets actually. Nobody can predict the future but I think Mauricio has the tools to be that type of player, which obviously lines up better with the mets org depth chart than SS. The big ? is the defense whenever they move him.
RE: RE: that should say  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 4:11 pm : link
In comment 15734025 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 15733841 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


mcneil, alonso, nimmo, marte, etc are all very different hitters in terms of where the ball goes when they hit it. but they are all trying to "95 or walk".



Eric - very curious where you heard that last line??



’95 and walk’: Behind the Mets’ simple mantra that’s guiding a balanced hitting approach - ( New Window )
now tell us when vientos is getting promoted pls  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 4:11 pm : link
;).
RE: now tell us when vientos is getting promoted pls  
moze1021 : 6/16/2022 4:15 pm : link
In comment 15734041 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
;).


Marte HBP now day-to-day didn't help!
RE: RE: now tell us when vientos is getting promoted pls  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 4:18 pm : link
In comment 15734044 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15734041 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


;).



Marte HBP now day-to-day didn't help!


sort of disagree, let mcneil play OF, Guillorme 2b, and Vientos DH. McNeil is the best option to play in the OF and they can put Canha in CF and Nimmo in RF if they don't feel comfortable with Canha in RF.
McCann  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 4:40 pm : link
rehab game 1 tonight
Machado  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 5:02 pm : link
3-5, what a year he's having, he and Harper both got megadeals and both are likely future HOFers signed in their prime.

-Gausman finally a bad start... rocked by.... Baltimore?
Mets really set for the draft next month! Future Looking Good!  
GiantBlue : 6/16/2022 6:51 pm : link
Here are the five largest bonus pools for the 2022 MLB draft:

Orioles: $16,924,000
Diamondbacks: $15,112,100
Mets: $13,955,700
Pirates: $13,733,900
Rockies: $13,660,700

The Mets hold the No. 11 pick (compensation for Rocker) and No. 14 pick (their original first rounder), plus they received a compensation pick for losing Noah Syndergaard to free agency (No. 75), so they have a lot of picks and a lot of money to spend. Should be a banner draft class for the Amazin's.
Link - ( New Window )
im still annoyed about conforto costing them a pick  
Eric on Li : 6/16/2022 6:57 pm : link
at least boras helped deliver scherzer because he's been the kiss of death on almost everything else. harvey, conforto, rocker, soon to be nimmo.
Guess  
DanMetroMan : 6/16/2022 6:57 pm : link
What The Troll just did…. Alvarez homers… again. Unreal
El  
DanMetroMan : 6/22/2022 8:11 am : link
Troll is a childhood nickname he got while working for his father. The exact origin story hasn’t really been explained
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