AAA Fisher
AA Vargas
A+ Vasil
A Ziegler
AAA
Vientos 2-5, HR, 3 k's (slugging .864 over 7 June games)
Dom 0-4, BB, K
Mangum 1-5
Ritter 1-4, 2b (2 errors)
Meyer 0-2, 2 BB, K
Palka 2-5, 2b
Medina 1 inning 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 0 k's
Hunter 1 inning 2 hits 0 runs 0 walks 0 k's
AA game 1
Alvarez 3-5, 2b, K
Mauricio 1-5, HR, 3 k's
Baty 2-5, 2b, SB, K
Cortes 2-3, HR, BB
Butto 6 innings 5 hits 1 run 2 walks 5 k's
AA game 2
Alvarez 0-2, BB
Young 1-3
Mauricio 0-3, 2 k's (Mauricio is hitting for power this month but not much else .224/.291/.490 line for June)
Senger 0-3, 2 k's
Cortes 0-3
A+ (game 1)
Schwartz 1-3
McIIwain 1-3, 3b
Palmer 1-2, BB, K
Newton 1-3, HR, K
Santos 5.2 innings 3 hits 1 run 1 walk 4 k's (Junior Santos last 6 starts 29.2 innings 24 hits 9 walks 26 k's 2.77 era )
BK2
McIIwain 2-4, 2b, K
Palmer 1-3, BB, K
St. Lucie
Ramirez 0-4, K
Tillien 0-4
Consuegra 2-2, HR, 2 BB (Stan "The Man" Consuegra now has a 1.191 OPS in June including 3 homers, 3 doubles, 2 triples, 3 steals and 8 walks over 39 ab's )
ODLS 1-4, 2 k's
Dominguez 1-4, 3 k's
Lugo 1-2, 2 BB
Hamel 6.2 innings 1 run 1 hit 4 walks 7 k's (Very solid outing for Hamel, but walks remain an issue. He's now issued 28 walks over 48.2 innings pitched)
Beck 2.1 innings 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 2 k's
Love the long home runs but his OBP on the season is now.... .286. That's dreadful. It's 64th/76 qualified hitters in the EL and his BB% is 69/76.
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HR traveled 454 feet - that sounds long.
Love the long home runs but his OBP on the season is now.... .286. That's dreadful. It's 64th/76 qualified hitters in the EL and his BB% is 69/76.
yeah, was just saying the HR was long.
point in case is that mauricio's is pulling the ball 50% of the time this year, like that homer, when he had always been more mid to low 40's in previous years. both his linedrive and ground ball rates are career lows and his flyball% is about 25% higher than the rest of his career, so my guess is he is actively trying to hit the ball in the air as much as possible because it seems that's what he's doing.
whether that's something he's doing on his own or the mets are coaching i think it's very likely that if the approach changes the stat line will too.
https://twitter.com/ELFANATICORD1/status/1537395809473413123 - ( New Window )
point in case is that mauricio's is pulling the ball 50% of the time this year, like that homer, when he had always been more mid to low 40's in previous years. both his linedrive and ground ball rates are career lows and his flyball% is about 25% higher than the rest of his career, so my guess is he is actively trying to hit the ball in the air as much as possible because it seems that's what he's doing.
whether that's something he's doing on his own or the mets are coaching i think it's very likely that if the approach changes the stat line will too. https://twitter.com/ELFANATICORD1/status/1537395809473413123 - ( New Window )
I can confidently say the Mets aren't coaching Mauricio to have an approach that results in a sub .300 OBP and what Jarrett Seidler previously said "very much below average swing decisions" per scouts he spoke to.
.278 BABIP, .207 ISO, 5.7% walk rate, 24% K rate
2022
.281 BABIP, .213 ISO, 4.8 walk rate, 23.8% K rate, almost shockingly so
.242/.290/.449 last season
.245/.286/.458 this season
How much closer could you possibly get?
I can confidently say the Mets aren't coaching Mauricio to have an approach that results in a sub .300 OBP and what Jarrett Seidler previously said "very much below average swing decisions" per scouts he spoke to.
maybe, he'd certainly know more than us but i just looked up Alvarez and Baty since they are same level and they are both pulling a ton and hitting a ton of flyballs also:
Alvarez (55% pull, career high FB%)
Baty (48% pull, also he has increased both his linedrive% and fb% while lowering GB% by 1/3, which seems very good)
to put those pull% in context there are only 2 met regulars above 40% - Alonso and Lindor each at 47%. so it seems more than coincidental all 3 top prospects at Bing are pulling the ball in the air to the degree that they are. If your 3 best hitters are doing something to such a significant degree it's hard for me to think they are all doing it against coaching.
O’Neil Cruz is one of the top prospects in baseball and scouts still maintain concern he will post low OBP because of his swing decisions/walk rate and even he posted a .346 OBP last year in AA. Elly De La Cruz from the Reds was a “if this guy ever figures it out at the plate he could be a monster” and even he has a .343 career OBP, .346 this year (side note is this kid could be a future MVP, quite the talent) … anyway I hope to be proven wrong but Mauricio’s red flags offensively are glaring more brightly as they continue to show zero signs of improvement
.278 BABIP, .207 ISO, 5.7% walk rate, 24% K rate
2022
.281 BABIP, .213 ISO, 4.8 walk rate, 23.8% K rate, almost shockingly so
.242/.290/.449 last season
.245/.286/.458 this season
How much closer could you possibly get?
you couldn't but the batted ball data is very different. He cut his GB/FB rate dramatically. his ground ball to flyball rate was 2.5 at AA last year which was his career high. Only 20% of his batted balls in AA last year were fly balls and 25% of those fly balls were homers. exit velocities would give us a more complete picture but it seems very likely someone observed that good things were happening when he got the ball in the air in 2021 and he should do it more this year.
in all of his previous seasons he ranged between 1.4-2.5 ground balls to fly balls and this year he's under 1 for the first time at .9. he more than doubled the number of flyballs from last year from 20% in 2021 to 45%.
the negative is that the number of homers hasn't increased with more fly balls - it's remained the same. he's hitting twice as many fly balls as last year and only half as many are going out (his HR/FB rate went from 25% to 13% - which would corroborate what Seidler is saying that maybe there have been pitch selection issues).
I would guess that if he doesn't get more efficient with this approach on improve the % of flyballs turning into homers they will adjust his approach to hitting fewer flyballs.
For those unaware, because of player call-ups and whatnot, the 1st half and second half winners will playoff with one another at the season's end.
Offensively. If such players exist they are exceedingly rare/outliers
For those unaware, because of player call-ups and whatnot, the 1st half and second half winners will playoff with one another at the season's end.
FCL is pretty mediocre this year prospect wise because they sent most of the interesting guys to St. Lucie but both teams should add some fun talent post draft (with FSL obviously losing some of their current guys to BK)
no dan i think improving pitch selection/walking is a constant every player is working on concurrently with whatever kind of contact they are looking to make. the goal of every at bat is hard contact which comes from good pitch selection and not being overaggressive on pitches out of the zone. nobodies goal is always the opposite of a strikeout or weak contact.
the contact approach is what im speculating on - when you get your pitch what are you trying to do with it? I think the plan has been to put the ball in the air, and with understandable reason season since he hit such a % out last year when he did that (20% at A+ and 25% at AA).
i am not saying this approach has been successful or that mauricio has some underlying reason for optimism. just that he is clearly doing something different this year than last on contact. the pitch selection seems the same.
You got your wish. Hunter called up
the lack of progress walking is a negative but overall i'd say my reaction to this season is neutral. At A+ last year he had a 94 wRC. He got promoted because of the power (19 homers, .207 iso).
maintaining/slightly improving those numbers at AA isn't a total disappointment imo. his RC is 101 and his iso is .213.
it appears he's trying something different at a new level and he has neither progressed or regressed. he hasn't yet found an approach that clicked but the only way to get there is to keep trying new things.
Is who they dump but the corresponding move hasn’t been announced. Lopez another option. Hunter’s numbers were more okay than great but reports were he was throwing well.
My basic thought is this..: when I was younger I absolutely loved the toolsy prospects regardless of their red flags. When it became apparently that swing decisions formerly known as plate discipline was far harder to develop than it appeared, I took down my excitement over such prospects a notch. At this point Mauricio reaching his “ceiling” aka all-star or good MLB above average regular looks less likely to me than it did before he became an oversized SS with good but not special power projection ala Cruz and a likely low OBP. At SS maybe he’s a regular for another team. As a starting CO, I think hed leave a lot to be desired unless he suddenly develops a significantly better plan at the plate
Law has him #2… Wowzas.
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so my neutral reaction is maybe from a slightly different base level expectation. he is a tools guy who may or may not ever find a tool box. im glad he's trying different approaches because he does likely need something new to click in terms of his approach.
My basic thought is this..: when I was younger I absolutely loved the toolsy prospects regardless of their red flags. When it became apparently that swing decisions formerly known as plate discipline was far harder to develop than it appeared, I took down my excitement over such prospects a notch. At this point Mauricio reaching his “ceiling” aka all-star or good MLB above average regular looks less likely to me than it did before he became an oversized SS with good but not special power projection ala Cruz and a likely low OBP. At SS maybe he’s a regular for another team. As a starting CO, I think hed leave a lot to be desired unless he suddenly develops a significantly better plan at the plate
I'm with you on that. Not very high on Mauricio. I am a hit tool guy above all else. See way too many of the toolsy players fail.
Completely get why they pushed it back.. it makes all the sense in the world...
But I do miss getting to watch College World Series and see guys already drafted and know who they are playing for.. always thought that was cool.
But again, the new timing is just obviously better all around.
Do you select someone like Tucker Toman to a very underslot deal at 11 where you could save like $1.5-$2 Million (not counting still having the full allowed overage) and use that savings to stock up on high upside arms?
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Wait for the draft. They should come away with multiple prospects who will slot into their top 15.
Completely get why they pushed it back.. it makes all the sense in the world...
But I do miss getting to watch College World Series and see guys already drafted and know who they are playing for.. always thought that was cool.
But again, the new timing is just obviously better all around.
Agreed 100%
Any chance the Mets “blow up” the draft and just take BPA every round and try to sign everyone?
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Wait for the draft. They should come away with multiple prospects who will slot into their top 15.
Any chance the Mets “blow up” the draft and just take BPA every round and try to sign everyone?
With how unpredictable the draft is, I would not risk losing future picks.
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In comment 15733858 Eric on Li said:
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so my neutral reaction is maybe from a slightly different base level expectation. he is a tools guy who may or may not ever find a tool box. im glad he's trying different approaches because he does likely need something new to click in terms of his approach.
My basic thought is this..: when I was younger I absolutely loved the toolsy prospects regardless of their red flags. When it became apparently that swing decisions formerly known as plate discipline was far harder to develop than it appeared, I took down my excitement over such prospects a notch. At this point Mauricio reaching his “ceiling” aka all-star or good MLB above average regular looks less likely to me than it did before he became an oversized SS with good but not special power projection ala Cruz and a likely low OBP. At SS maybe he’s a regular for another team. As a starting CO, I think hed leave a lot to be desired unless he suddenly develops a significantly better plan at the plate
I'm with you on that. Not very high on Mauricio. I am a hit tool guy above all else. See way too many of the toolsy players fail.
hit tool is the foundation that plays up (or down) all the others. that's why im high on contact rates and batting average because they indicate the guys who have the foundation.
re Mauricio I would still speculate that part of the decision to trade pca may have been anticipating him as a future CF. Law has also speculated that to be his future position and we know he's not playing SS for the Mets, so to me it's obvious OF is where he's going and no reason to not start him in CF since that's in many people's view the easiest place to read the ball off the bat and where a lot of converted SS go.
if he's good in CF i think maybe his upside is Mike Cameron-ish. Or maybe Granderson-ish without the walks is a better comp since he played all 3 OF spots? That's still a pretty good prospect but below Alvares/Vientos/Baty.
i think we all agree he's most likely to be traded of the big prospects but if he's not my guess is we see him in the OF in the 2nd half of the year. we are all probably just him hacking it in CF and having a slightly better 2nd half hitting away from being excited about him again. Especially if it appears Nimmo is on the way out the door.
BA is .260 and OPS is .875. He's still striking out more than you want but there's never going to be a perfect time. Call him up now while the DH need is there and he's feeling good on a hot streak.
agreed - Granderson may be the better comp but i'd probably guess mauricio's speed is closer to cameron's than his ability to walk will ever be to granderson's.
but i guess granderson's walk rate when he was younger wasn't what it ultimately became. his career .249 / .337 / .465 (115 rc) is actually pretty close to mauricio's minor league career so far. the ba and slg% are actually higher the obp lower.
Otanez 1 perfect 2 k's
Villavicencio 1-3, BB
Ramirez 4 innings 1 hit 5 k's
Ovalles wow 2.2 innings 2 hits 1 run 0 walks.... 7 k's
Eric - very curious where you heard that last line??