No idea who Nolan Murt is, but he does some analysis of QB hits vs misses and lays out pretty well the pro Daniel Jones argument (or more generally, the "no qb could succeed here" argument) even while this article classifies Jones himself in the "jury still out" category.
I believe in this approach, summarized below (the article goes into a lot more detail).
Perhaps the counter point would be that this is legacy thinking and that in today's game, basketball on turf, you need to identify that superior quick minded, quick reaction agile athlete in the
point guard QB position whose natural gifts can succeed right away, no matter how terrible the surroundings are.
I get that counter point, but I would say that those QB's are too rare to plan for one.
If the factors claimed for the QB's in this article are accurate and not subjective, and from the limited I know about these other QB situations, they seem to be pretty accurate, it does appear to support the conclusion that first developing a good environment, then making the right draft selection at the right time (and subsequent handling of the player) are a surer path to a "good" QB than hoping to find that rare "can win no matter what" QB. Seems kind of obvious to me.
Also, look at the factors listed for the QB's classified as "hits". Say what you want about DJ's talent, but did he have any of those factors at all outside of his first year? Even if one grants that there are talent differences, look at all of the advantages those successful QB's had. Now look at the factors for the unsuccessful ones. Outside of injury, it's pretty stark, the difference. The Giants lately offer more of the factors of the unsuccessful QB's than the successful ones.
Makes "no QB could succeed here" seem pretty on point. Given that, do we point at DJ or the team as the problem with the QB position and the offense in general, ultimately wins vs losses.
Think back to Shoen's comments on evaluating QB's from outside your system - for bad plays you can't really say when and if the QB is to blame vs other players vs the play call vs the offense, because you just don't know what was supposed to happen.
Combine those two points of view and honestly, we don't know what we have in DJ at all, other than little hints here and there - both good and bad. Therefore as we've all been saying, this is his audition - this is his true test.
The two-phase quest begins with the development environment’s careful construction, its own process that begins a year or two before the quarterback enters the building. It involves identifying the right staff to develop the quarterback, weaponizing and fortifying the offense with skill position and offensive line talent and preparing to adapt the system to match the skillset of the quarterback.
The selection made in the draft is not the end of the quest, but the beginning of its second phase, the developmental phase, another multi-year process during which the collaboration of the three component themes within the development environment is of utmost importance. As demonstrated above, all three of the component themes coexist in symbiotic relationships. They work together. They feed off each other.
If this two-phase quest is done correctly, the odds of hitting on this paramount pick, the drafting of the franchise quarterback, are significantly increased. After all, as this research indicates, the hits aren’t made in the selection process; the hits are made in the development process. Even the most promising young mango tree in the world requires a confluence of factors to reach its fruit-bearing potential.
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"the hits aren’t made in the selection process; the hits are made in the development process."
We have had an awful development process.
It seems like the new staff would agree with this philosophy and maybe are trying to compress that into the one offseason they have with Jones.
I guess the take away for me here is, if Jones doesn't earn his spot after this season, it does seem like we are building a good environment for any credible QB talent to come in and be at his best. That's really good for the Giants' future.
The Secret to Finding a Franchise Quarterback: Part 1 - (
New Window )
It started the moment Manning cried his way back into the lineup in 2017. Virtually every big decision from that day forward set this situation up.
But the premise of that article really implies Jones is going to need a few seasons being rebuilt in a stable system, and it’s a luxury the economics make improbable to gamble on.
It started the moment Manning cried his way back into the lineup in 2017. Virtually every big decision from that day forward set this situation up.
But the premise of that article really implies Jones is going to need a few seasons being rebuilt in a stable system, and it’s a luxury the economics make improbable to gamble on.
It started the moment Manning cried his way back into the lineup in 2017. Virtually every big decision from that day forward set this situation up.
But the premise of that article really implies Jones is going to need a few seasons being rebuilt in a stable system, and it’s a luxury the economics make improbable to gamble on.
Eli cried his way back? There’s that anti-Eli narrative you have pushed on many threads. He didn’t fucking cry his way back. Such a weak argument.
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I’ve made a similar argument for many years — Jones’s failure pre-date Jones.
It started the moment Manning cried his way back into the lineup in 2017. Virtually every big decision from that day forward set this situation up.
But the premise of that article really implies Jones is going to need a few seasons being rebuilt in a stable system, and it’s a luxury the economics make improbable to gamble on.
Eli cried his way back? There’s that anti-Eli narrative you have pushed on many threads. He didn’t fucking cry his way back. Such a weak argument.
He literally cried in front of his locker, the GM and coach got fired, and he was back in the lineup to suck it up for another year plus.
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In comment 15736728 christian said:
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I’ve made a similar argument for many years — Jones’s failure pre-date Jones.
It started the moment Manning cried his way back into the lineup in 2017. Virtually every big decision from that day forward set this situation up.
But the premise of that article really implies Jones is going to need a few seasons being rebuilt in a stable system, and it’s a luxury the economics make improbable to gamble on.
Eli cried his way back? There’s that anti-Eli narrative you have pushed on many threads. He didn’t fucking cry his way back. Such a weak argument.
He literally cried in front of his locker, the GM and coach got fired, and he was back in the lineup to suck it up for another year plus.
And he cried at Coughlins presser when he “retired” - that didn’t save Coughlin
He cried in his last game against Miami - he never got another start.
He’s a crier, so what? He will most likely cry at his HOF induction too. That wasn’t the reason Reese and McAdoo got fired. Reese got fired cause the roster was worse than what Gettleman left - think about that for a second. McAdoo produced two of the worst offenses in the league as HC and many people quit on the team on him. If you think Eli was responsible for those two - then your post is even more comical than it is.
The fact is you shit on Eli whenever you can. I can’t fathom why a giants fan would, but to each their own. But it’s really sad to do so.
The realistic situation is that the jury won't deliberate for much longer. In fact if he has a slow start over 4-8 games I wouldn't be surprised at all for him to get sat down. Sad, but not at all surprised.
I certainly didn't enjoy when he cried about losing his job, and then when the brain dead organization gave it back to him, he sucked and the team dove into a tail spin.
The problems started after the 2012 season when Reese Mishit and ignored the OL for years and didn’t have ONE single draft picks after the 3rd round be a meaningful player in the NFL. Yeah 2016 was fun but it was a mirage that bud the true problems and we had to spend mightily to do it. Sure OBJ in his prime was fun, but again the same problems we had in 2013? Guess what? Still existed throughout last year.
No OL
No GM
Very little talent
The giants problem didn’t start by keeping Eli. It started when Reese and dipshit fucking Marc Ross kept fucking up the roster for 5 consecutive years.
So we are surprised when our maybe-drafted-too-high-but-has-pedigree-and-talent-though-plenty-of-detractors QB isn't a success?
I certainly didn't enjoy when he cried about losing his job, and then when the brain dead organization gave it back to him, he sucked and the team dove into a tail spin.
I would bet good money you didn’t enjoy when he played well either… but can’t prove it either way. You’re not an Eli fan. Sad, but it’s the truth. And again, if you think sticking with Eli is why we are here - you aren’t as smart of a fan as you think you are.
The Giants made a bunch of brain dead decisions after the 2017 season, and that was largely the situation Jones was drafted into.
So we are surprised when our maybe-drafted-too-high-but-has-pedigree-and-talent-though-plenty-of-detractors QB isn't a success?
You can have whatever QB you want in your team when you have 2 GMs that were as incompetent as Reese’s last 5 years and gettlemans 4 years - you ain’t winning shit - I don’t care if it’s Mahomes or Allen slinging it. Cause I can guarantee they wouldn’t be as good with the Giants because the talent, coaching, and everything else would have stunted their growth.
The fact people still can’t see that TALENT and roster building is so important just amazes me. I don’t care if Jones is good or not anymore. I know that he wouldn’t even be in the top 10 reasons why we sucked during his tenure.
The Giants made a bunch of brain dead decisions after the 2017 season, and that was largely the situation Jones was drafted into.
Actually those bone head decisions started in 2012 not 2017. We are still the same shit team we were in 2013 and for the same reason. But again people still want to ignore why but keep harping on Jones. It’s pretty comical at this point.
This is probably going to blow your mind -- but I'm a Giants fan and I like when the Giants are good.
If you don't think the mess Gettleman constructed under the assumption Manning still had it, is a bit part of Jones failing, excellente.
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I would bet good money you didn’t enjoy when he played well either… but can’t prove it either way. You’re not an Eli fan. Sad, but it’s the truth. And again, if you think sticking with Eli is why we are here - you aren’t as smart of a fan as you think you are.
This is probably going to blow your mind -- but I'm a Giants fan and I like when the Giants are good.
If you don't think the mess Gettleman constructed under the assumption Manning still had it, is a bit part of Jones failing, excellente.
I think the Giants failing since 2013 has been a accumulation of things. And I have stated a few times already. But the main reason has been roster build up. Started with Reese/Ross and has been continued by DG. But I’m not naive to think it started with DG and Jones. That’s kind of shortsighted thinking.
I mean I know fans think they’re smarter than everyone else when it comes to players - but I’m not going to sit here and tell you if a QB has “it” when the rest of the offense is complete shit. And guess what? Outside OBJ for 3-4 years and Barkley’s rookie year - we haven’t had one OL, one TE - or any other WR/RB that were above average since 2012. Think about that for a second. Two players in 10 years that Eli and Jones played with…
And that’s not to say Eli and Jones are/were good. But I’m pretty confident what surrounded them has been worse than them. And that’s the problem. So like I said - true problems started with Reese/Ross and continued with DG.
I don't know whether Jones can be the guy or not, but hopefully with a little more talent and better play calling, we'll be in better position to make that call.
I don't know whether Jones can be the guy or not, but hopefully with a little more talent and better play calling, we'll be in better position to make that call.
This is a logical fallacy. The offense looked better with Jones than with Fromme, a poor QB who had started no games, and Glennon, who isn't a capable backup. And based on their performances you are saying no QB could do better than Jones. I don't think I have to spell out for you why that is terrible logic. By the way, the numbers say that Tom Brady, for instance, can process the field and release the ball and make plays, faster than it takes Daniel Jones to drop back, feel pressure, and make his usual mistakes. Jones holds the ball too long. He's not decisive and the game is too fast for him. Other QBs without those deficits can perform better than Jonea.
Nonetheless, the central conclusion does fit with recent Giants history. The team has paid dearly for the original sin of the Gettleman era: pursuing one last run with Eli. The 2018 Giants were built on the premise that the team could retool around Manning with an explosive running back and a few expensive band-aids. A year later, they inserted Jones into a roster that was still distorted by the failed premise of 2018.
In an alternate history, Gettleman would have moved Beckham and others a year earlier and used the 2018 and 2019 drafts to rebuild the team's foundation. In a perfect version of that timeline, they would have passed on the weak 2019 QB class, tanked completely with either Eli or a cheap seat-warmer QB and added Justin Herbert in 2020. If only.
Assuming they did pick Jones in 2019, would he have done materially better if the team had committed to rebuilding sooner? I doubt it, simply because one year was insufficient for the renovation needed. If Jones had joined the team in 2020 rather than 2019, two years into a full rebuild, he might have fared better. That's too many layers of counterfactual to unravel.
The bottom line is that Gettleman got it all backwards, and as a result the window is rapidly closing on Daniel Jones. At this point, he needs to be really good to keep his job beyond his guaranteed rookie contract. That's not entirely his fault. It's simply the way things are for a QB who spent his first three seasons with an awful, injury-riddled team, and who hasn't done much to distinguish himself from the awfulness or the injuries.
I like Jones, and I don't blame him for the idiocy of a terrible team drafting him at #6 and expecting him to be the answer. I hope he plays a full season and thrives in 2022. But the ship has most likely sailed.
I think what was said at the end is the key piece. Whatever happens with Jones the Giants are trying to have a better infrastructure in place for whoever the QB is. If they come out of this year with a good OL with some depth they will be in a much better place. They may already have some skill guys in place.
Under shurmur, the giants brought in players with ties to James Bettcher (arizona) and ties to shurmur/ Mike shula (oc). Mauro, buccanon, bethea, markus golden, kareem martin, Remmers. Jonathan Stewart was an overpay.
Under judge, our drafts were largely players with SEC ties and how many players were brought in for special teams? The coaches had more of an impact on the drafts and free agent acquisitions than the front office. The coaches were not good on roster construction. Joe judge was better at college targets in the draft. I think that was largely due to the college coaches he had on his staff and connections he had to college coaches.
Gettleman as the general manager is responsible for the players acquired, but I don't see any year under shurmur or judge where the players acquired were opposed by the coaches. In fact, in many circumstances, they wanted them. Judge sat down with golladay and adoree Jackson. They were not going to be signed without judge's ok.
The front office is to blame for the coaching hires and gettleman. Let's hope they got it right this time.
Jones will be "evaluated" over his first 8 or so games. No way he gets pulled the first four unless he is so so so bad that no one can justify keeping him in the fight. But I don't think that will happen here. Rather, I think the Giants will try to run early and throw short a lot to quick receivers like Toney, Shepard and Barkley out of the backfield. Keep it safe and go 20+ at times to keep defenses honest.
I will say this again: Jones will do very well this year due to his experience BUT only if his primary guys get healthy & stay healthy thru camp and the season: Thomas, Glowinski, Neal, Toney, Galloday, Shepard, Barkley must stay healthy and bring continuity. The youth must develop so a guy like Robinson is a force as the season progresses. Same goes for Thibs and Neal.
We need the coaches to figure out the players strengths and mask their weaknesses which are many. This team simply lacks top end talent which is why they will lose close games.
My prayer is 9 - 8 but a lot has to fall into place for that to happen.
Go Jones, Go Giants, Go Evaluation year!
It started the moment Manning cried his way back into the lineup in 2017.
What a di(k thing to say. Should they have kept Geno Smith in there? a$$
OL.....I know a turnstile RT would be unnerving to any QB.
TE....Engram single handedly caused several turnovers.
Coaching....non stable and unimaginative offense was damaging
All true....But it does not matter.
It's time for Jones to prove it...ready or not.
To the article, a lot of fair assessments and some questionable ones. Although I think the main takeaway is in their conclusion that a stronger infrastructure (front office and coaching) and obtaining some reliable pieces for the Offense first will increase the chances that the 1st/2nd round QB you draft later will develop into a franchise guy. It's far from some mind-blowing epiphany and still kind of overlooks the fact that some QBs drafted just have the "right-stuff" and can bring out the best/better in a front office, coaching staff and offensive roster.
A ton of mistakes made by the NY Giants in the years before Jones was even drafted and since. Poor infrastructure in-house and a weak supporting roster. Jones himself has the look of guy, thus far, that had no business being pulled up to #6 overall as well. The idea that it will all come together fast enough to move Jones into franchise-guy category or that his own respective right-stuff has been supressed or delayed and will soon appear is just unlikely.
Will root for the Giants and Jones as always in 2022, but it won't take long before the 2023 QB Draft Class becomes the primary story on this board...
It will be interesting to read between the lines of what is said by Kafka and Daboll. They will know.
Well, folks, we have sunk to new lows.
Personally, I blame Raul Allegre...
But the decisions he made in 2012 had very little chance of materially impacting the situation Jones walked into 8 off seasons later.
As BBB posted above, the Giants made wholesale changes in 2018.
When Jones entered the lineup in 2019, the head coach, staff and 8 of the 11 offensive regulars were chosen by Gettleman.
That's the time period that set the stage for Jones. Not what Reese did when Jones was a sophomore in high school.
1. Is he setting the protections correctly pre snap? A lot of times the free blitzer is on the QB not reading properly pre snap.
2. Has he learned to feel the pressure in the pocket and shuffle to clean a spot while keeping his eyes down field and finding a 2nd or 3rd option?
3. Can he throw on the run? So far he been bad at throwing accurately on the move.
4. Has he learned to protect himself when he's running? If he keeps missing multiple games every year it's a problem.
The QB gets too much credit when things go well and too much grief when things go poorly. The NFL is an 11 man game. You can count the QBs on one hand that can lift an entire team almost by themselves. But it's a fact that in the NFL excellent QB play is essential to winning.
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I enjoyed Manning when he played well, and I didn't enjoy Manning when he sucked.
I certainly didn't enjoy when he cried about losing his job, and then when the brain dead organization gave it back to him, he sucked and the team dove into a tail spin.
I would bet good money you didn’t enjoy when he played well either… but can’t prove it either way. You’re not an Eli fan. Sad, but it’s the truth. And again, if you think sticking with Eli is why we are here - you aren’t as smart of a fan as you think you are.
Sticking with Eli might not be why the Giants are where they are. But if you believed Eli was still a winner and not the reason the Giants were such a losing team his final 4 seasons; you can’t make the argument that Jones should have raised the talent level surrounding him with his play
It started the moment Manning cried his way back into the lineup in 2017. Virtually every big decision from that day forward set this situation up.
But the premise of that article really implies Jones is going to need a few seasons being rebuilt in a stable system, and it’s a luxury the economics make improbable to gamble on.
You know, ww get a lot of pro-Jones posters who, somewhat understandably, criticize negative posters for hating on their favorite team's QB, yet have no issue throwing a 2-time SB MVP, likely HOFer under the bus.
The hating argument goes both ways, and I'm giving Eli the benefit of the doubt before the guy who has yet to win 6 games.
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In comment 15736756 christian said:
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I enjoyed Manning when he played well, and I didn't enjoy Manning when he sucked.
I certainly didn't enjoy when he cried about losing his job, and then when the brain dead organization gave it back to him, he sucked and the team dove into a tail spin.
I would bet good money you didn’t enjoy when he played well either… but can’t prove it either way. You’re not an Eli fan. Sad, but it’s the truth. And again, if you think sticking with Eli is why we are here - you aren’t as smart of a fan as you think you are.
Sticking with Eli might not be why the Giants are where they are. But if you believed Eli was still a winner and not the reason the Giants were such a losing team his final 4 seasons; you can’t make the argument that Jones should have raised the talent level surrounding him with his play
Huh? I stated multiple times this thread that Daniel Jones wouldn’t even be in my top 10 reasons why this team has sucked. And I’m not a Jones fan either.
The big mistake they made was not reverting back to building a outstanding running game. Eli with two outstanding WR's (2011) and a very good 3rd with a still functional pass blocking OL produced a SB. When that OL could was no longer functional and both Nicks and Cruz got hurt it was over. After taking 20 plus hits in the 2011 NFCCG the Giants response was Wilson, Randle, Hosley, and JPP TE's. That doesn't show a franchise who knew the team or its QB very well imv.
They never recovered.
The big mistake they made was not reverting back to building a outstanding running game. Eli with two outstanding WR's (2011) and a very good 3rd with a still functional pass blocking OL produced a SB. When that OL could was no longer functional and both Nicks and Cruz got hurt it was over. After taking 20 plus hits in the 2011 NFCCG the Giants response was Wilson, Randle, Hosley, and JPP TE's. That doesn't show a franchise who knew the team or its QB very well imv.
They never recovered.
You make a great point about the 2012 draft. Just a horrific use of resources. Reese’s drafts from 2012 to his last one would be the number 1 reason why we have sucked for 10 years.
The big mistake they made was not reverting back to building a outstanding running game. Eli with two outstanding WR's (2011) and a very good 3rd with a still functional pass blocking OL produced a SB. When that OL could was no longer functional and both Nicks and Cruz got hurt it was over. After taking 20 plus hits in the 2011 NFCCG the Giants response was Wilson, Randle, Hosley, and JPP TE's. That doesn't show a franchise who knew the team or its QB very well imv.
They never recovered.
Except that we had to he, IIRC, 31st ranked rushing attack in 2011.
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running game that gets 130 plus per game. Playoffs.
The big mistake they made was not reverting back to building a outstanding running game. Eli with two outstanding WR's (2011) and a very good 3rd with a still functional pass blocking OL produced a SB. When that OL could was no longer functional and both Nicks and Cruz got hurt it was over. After taking 20 plus hits in the 2011 NFCCG the Giants response was Wilson, Randle, Hosley, and JPP TE's. That doesn't show a franchise who knew the team or its QB very well imv.
They never recovered.
You make a great point about the 2012 draft. Just a horrific use of resources. Reese’s drafts from 2012 to his last one would be the number 1 reason why we have sucked for 10 years.
Thanks. Even before that draft they could have planned better for an aging and expensive OL. O'Hara left replaced by a high priced center who got Hurt (Bass). Then Schwartz (Hurt). Those should have been drafted and developed OL ready to go. Instead they were taking Snee to practice practically on a golf cart.
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running game that gets 130 plus per game. Playoffs.
The big mistake they made was not reverting back to building a outstanding running game. Eli with two outstanding WR's (2011) and a very good 3rd with a still functional pass blocking OL produced a SB. When that OL could was no longer functional and both Nicks and Cruz got hurt it was over. After taking 20 plus hits in the 2011 NFCCG the Giants response was Wilson, Randle, Hosley, and JPP TE's. That doesn't show a franchise who knew the team or its QB very well imv.
They never recovered.
Except that we had to he, IIRC, 31st ranked rushing attack in 2011.
You did not read or comprehend what I wrote very well.
Quite a few agree but Jerry also got a little too full of himself imv. The SB clock and then his skittish comment about Eli seemed to pass the blame.
As far as, "stuck with him, making excuses, & dying on the DJ hill," none of these things really matter, Jones is the 2022 QB. I hope that he play's lights-out and makes a 2nd contract the right move.
If not, good luck to him and to the QB of the future lining up with the Giants 1st pick in the 2023 draft.
I ask this is in all seriousness. He hasn't worked here in five years.
There are several posts on this thread bemoaning decisions he made 11 offseasons ago.
There is one player on this roster he chose.
I ask this is in all seriousness. He hasn't worked here in five years.
There are several posts on this thread bemoaning decisions he made 11 offseasons ago.
There is one player on this roster he chose.
Here are two teams in the division who had success with drafted rookie QB's and what the previous regime (s) left for thme.
Wentz 2016, In place on the OL. Peters, Kelce and Johnson and a outstanding TE group in Ertz and capable Celek.
Dak also 2016, In place on the OL. Smith, Martin and Frederick. At the TE you had Witten.
So with those 6 OL you are looking at 4 HOF's and two more who have/had a chance. A HOF TE and a outstanding one.
Reese left......a disaster.
I ask this is in all seriousness. He hasn't worked here in five years.
There are several posts on this thread bemoaning decisions he made 11 offseasons ago.
There is one player on this roster he chose.
It’s a domino effect from his incompetence starting in 2012. Not signing draft choices to second contracts, giving out massive FA contracts, and hiring inept coaches made us stink. Since we were worse when he left us, DG made a big problem worse by trying to get good by doing the same formula. Again, a GMs job is to acquire talent and he failed miserably his last 5 years. Then DG made it worse. The pattern has been there for over a decade but select posters like yourself want to have blinders on and blame everything on DG.
If you think a complete turnaround happens in 1-2 years - great. Just make sure you’re the leader not to blame Gettleman anymore in 2024 if we still stink. Sound good?
So yes the Reese blame still goes on. Maybe in a few years it will die down, but the shithole we had to endure for over a decade started with him and continues to this day.
So honestly, what's the expiration on blame?
Are you guys going to blame Gettleman if Schoen fields a shitty team in 2025?