No idea who Nolan Murt is, but he does some analysis of QB hits vs misses and lays out pretty well the pro Daniel Jones argument (or more generally, the "no qb could succeed here" argument) even while this article classifies Jones himself in the "jury still out" category.
I believe in this approach, summarized below (the article goes into a lot more detail).
Perhaps the counter point would be that this is legacy thinking and that in today's game, basketball on turf, you need to identify that superior quick minded, quick reaction agile athlete in the
point guard QB position whose natural gifts can succeed right away, no matter how terrible the surroundings are.
I get that counter point, but I would say that those QB's are too rare to plan for one.
If the factors claimed for the QB's in this article are accurate and not subjective, and from the limited I know about these other QB situations, they seem to be pretty accurate, it does appear to support the conclusion that first developing a good environment, then making the right draft selection at the right time (and subsequent handling of the player) are a surer path to a "good" QB than hoping to find that rare "can win no matter what" QB. Seems kind of obvious to me.
Also, look at the factors listed for the QB's classified as "hits". Say what you want about DJ's talent, but did he have any of those factors at all outside of his first year? Even if one grants that there are talent differences, look at all of the advantages those successful QB's had. Now look at the factors for the unsuccessful ones. Outside of injury, it's pretty stark, the difference. The Giants lately offer more of the factors of the unsuccessful QB's than the successful ones.
Makes "no QB could succeed here" seem pretty on point. Given that, do we point at DJ or the team as the problem with the QB position and the offense in general, ultimately wins vs losses.
Think back to Shoen's comments on evaluating QB's from outside your system - for bad plays you can't really say when and if the QB is to blame vs other players vs the play call vs the offense, because you just don't know what was supposed to happen.
Combine those two points of view and honestly, we don't know what we have in DJ at all, other than little hints here and there - both good and bad. Therefore as we've all been saying, this is his audition - this is his true test.
The two-phase quest begins with the development environment’s careful construction, its own process that begins a year or two before the quarterback enters the building. It involves identifying the right staff to develop the quarterback, weaponizing and fortifying the offense with skill position and offensive line talent and preparing to adapt the system to match the skillset of the quarterback.
The selection made in the draft is not the end of the quest, but the beginning of its second phase, the developmental phase, another multi-year process during which the collaboration of the three component themes within the development environment is of utmost importance. As demonstrated above, all three of the component themes coexist in symbiotic relationships. They work together. They feed off each other.
If this two-phase quest is done correctly, the odds of hitting on this paramount pick, the drafting of the franchise quarterback, are significantly increased. After all, as this research indicates, the hits aren’t made in the selection process; the hits are made in the development process. Even the most promising young mango tree in the world requires a confluence of factors to reach its fruit-bearing potential.
|
"the hits aren’t made in the selection process; the hits are made in the development process."
We have had an awful development process.
It seems like the new staff would agree with this philosophy and maybe are trying to compress that into the one offseason they have with Jones.
I guess the take away for me here is, if Jones doesn't earn his spot after this season, it does seem like we are building a good environment for any credible QB talent to come in and be at his best. That's really good for the Giants' future.
The Secret to Finding a Franchise Quarterback: Part 1 - (
New Window )
You know back then when this team would go 0-2 to start a season , the expectations are that heads would roll. A qb and a head coach were pretty much expected to find another jobs. Now it’s like “well at least he isn’t Turing the ball over”. And this team sucks so might as well let him start some more and see if a miracle happens and d jones becomes something other than what he has been his whole career.
You guys and this goofball Mara are still holding out hope for this loser
They drafted a QB at 6 and Mara is going to be damn certain that he is going to get his moneys worth.
Last 7 years of Eli’s career? Does that include his 2015 pro bowl season? But I get it the giants sucked those years so you’re dug in on it being Eli’s fault and he was never that good either even at the start.
You mention Glennon . Glennon was there because he was never meant to be a threat to jones. When that plan blew up in maras face ; he brought in TTaylor with expectation that he never leave the bench unless jones is hurt. Mara just won’t let go of the idea that d jones is a sunk cost so we have to endure another year of terrible football
Peyton
75-110-838-6-1
Eli
61-107-799-4-6
I am not seeing the statistical dominance of which you speak.
Maybe you just don't want to see it? I have no idea what yoyur numbers are . Are you tallying all 3 games they played over the course of 16 year careers?
I thought we were talking about pre 2007 Eli or in other words the first game they played where Eli's passer rating was like 10 points higher than Peytons. Has Jones ever gone up against a QB that was argunably the best to ever play and have a 10 point higher passer rating?
I still wish you hadn't given up on Glennon.
Lol. I’m regards to giving up, I have, on him being a troll. I’ve accepted this is actually who he is, sadly.
Sports reporter no one ever heard about says Jones is good and it was a bad team- a prescient, logical, and excellent talent evaluator who we all should attend.
Forget all other previously proffered excuses, it's Jerry Reese's fault going back to 2012 and Eli Manning's fault that Jones sucks.
The excuse-mongering for Daniel Jones beggars the imagination.
If you're referring to Emory Hunt, who also bashed Justin Herbert and praised Jalen Hurts in the process, then you're off base. He provide zero analysis and attributed nothing but false information.
EXACTLY.
We have a bunch of college games and 3 years of professional games.
We can evaluate what happened.
The people saying,
"We can't properly evaluate Jones"
Are idiots.
END OF STORY.
No more information is needed.
They are saying that shit because they at one time predicted Jones was going to be the shit and now they are so pathetic of a human, that they can't admit they were wrong about a football prediction.
No one cares, your football acumen is not in question.
We don't have any experts here.(Maybe a couple guys, you know who you are. I do not put myself in that group)
Jones will have significantly better stats in 2022 because I could exceed his 2021 production. It was that pitiful.
Jones is JAG. With great talent and scheme he will win some games. He elevates no one. Giving a second contract to that is stupid. I would rather risk an unknown.
If you are really telling me that before Eli was in the playoffs in 2007 he was the same thing that we see now -- you really need to check yourself.
So unless Eli was playing better than every QB that post season ; all time greats and legends of the game than he was pretty much a scrub. He threw for for yards with 854 ; tied Brady with more TDs with 6 (while only having one Int) had a rating of 96 . So unless he was outplaying Rivers ; Favre ; Brady ; Peyton . Unless he was doing that than he and Jones are like the same thing . YEA RIGHT!
EXACTLY.
We have a bunch of college games and 3 years of professional games.
We can evaluate what happened.
The people saying,
"We can't properly evaluate Jones"
Are idiots.
END OF STORY.
No more information is needed.
They are saying that shit because they at one time predicted Jones was going to be the shit and now they are so pathetic of a human, that they can't admit they were wrong about a football prediction.
No one cares, your football acumen is not in question.
We don't have any experts here.(Maybe a couple guys, you know who you are. I do not put myself in that group)
Jones will have significantly better stats in 2022 because I could exceed his 2021 production. It was that pitiful.
Jones is JAG. With great talent and scheme he will win some games. He elevates no one. Giving a second contract to that is stupid. I would rather risk an unknown.
I was definitely wrong on Jones. Thought he'd be able to bounce back from his bad year 2 but didn't. Shame on me I guess (not really, i'm just a fan with no impact on the games).
But our GM and HC seem to disagree with you and want to see what he does this year. So no matter how much you hate reading about all the fans wanting to see Jones with a better OL and weapons, just know that those running the team do too. We had 3+ rounds of opportunities to bring in a rookie with pro talent and didn't - I disagree with not doing it, but it is what it is. How much more can this be discussed?
Your fixation on a single game in 2006, a loss in which the Giants our-rushed Indy scored 21 points and never led, and couldn’t mount a drive with the the game on the line, is odd.
None of this diminishes what Eli became, nor does it mean Jones will ever sniff his level.
But I completely agree, there’s a perfectly reasonable argument Jones can make a leap (to some degree).
And if the counter argument is Manning was awesome his first three years — look no further than either of his games vs. Minnesota.
I think the reality is Manning took the leap from maddeningly inconsistent, to clutch. And Jones’s leap will be from rarely adequate to very average.
D Jones is just what he is until he proves otherwise and that is pretty much the second to worst QB in the NFL according to off advance stat expected wins category.
Everyone can look back and find something wrong with all of the QBs I’ve mentioned — Phil Simms , Eli , tannehill , even Peyton Manning . He had a pretty rough go his first few playoff games.
The point is you can’t just find fault and grade D Jones on a huge curve. The point is all of those guys had real moments where they played beyond what their normal rank would indicate.
Phil Simms had coach Walsh tell him he would be a hall of famer and shows up on a bad team that won 5/6 of his first starts. Tannehill shows up on the advance stats expected wins thing as third best qb in the NFL. Eli was too 5 / 6 in the NFL in yards and TDS in his first few years in the league and Cousins is pretty much a top 11 qb in the NFL no idea where that comparison is coming from.
There is nothing that Jones has that you can say is above his rank . Ever. Hes is just not an NFL qb. Not a starter anyway. I’ll stop saying this when we get frankly realistic about his accomplishments and other QBs and move on from this night mare
D Jones is just what he is until he proves otherwise and that is pretty much the second to worst QB in the NFL according to off advance stat expected wins category.
Everyone can look back and find something wrong with all of the QBs I’ve mentioned — Phil Simms , Eli , tannehill , even Peyton Manning . He had a pretty rough go his first few playoff games.
The point is you can’t just find fault and grade D Jones on a huge curve. The point is all of those guys had real moments where they played beyond what their normal rank would indicate.
Phil Simms had coach Walsh tell him he would be a hall of famer and shows up on a bad team that won 5/6 of his first starts. Tannehill shows up on the advance stats expected wins thing as third best qb in the NFL. Eli was too 5 / 6 in the NFL in yards and TDS in his first few years in the league and Cousins is pretty much a top 11 qb in the NFL no idea where that comparison is coming from.
There is nothing that Jones has that you can say is above his rank . Ever. Hes is just not an NFL qb. Not a starter anyway. I’ll stop saying this when we get frankly realistic about his accomplishments and other QBs and move on from this night mare
Now year #2 he has film on him and teams see what he can and can't do as well. The defenses adjust. Jones has a new offense and no camp and starts 0 -4. Jones has key drops which cost him a shot at the division title despite a horrific OL and lack of Barkley and receivers at times due to injury.
Year #3 there is enough camp but again a horrific OL and injuries hurt him. Jones stats with time are pretty good actually.
Jones isn't elite 8. He just isn't. But he is better than his performance to date and I think that will come out this year under this regime. I predict he plays well enough to get tagged for a year.
FML
In comment 15737102 sb from NYT Forum said:
That's a lack of arm strength, folks. So many here don't understand what arm strength is and point to his ability to throw the occasional deep ball as evidence that he has a strong arm. Well, he needs a full windup and planted feet to do that because he cannot rely on his arm alone. He needs full mechanics.
He is not good at throwing on the run, his quick releases have no zip (and poor accuracy) and he is not good at throwing outside the numbers.
To me that is the biggest issue with Jones, and until he improves his arm strength (yes, it's possible, look at Tom Brady) then he is going to struggle.
In comment 15737068 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
2005-08 all had over 130 plus and playoff seasons. 2009 did not and no playoffs. '10 did and they had 10 wins with no playoffs (a rare occurrence). 2011 was a outlier.
2012-2018 never achieved the 130 mark. The outlier here was 2016 with a top five D performance wise that reverted back by '17.
Seems pretty clear to me which path to take as Eli aged. Seems you disagree.
Not compelling with all your outliers. 2006 they won 8 games and made playoffs too so why isn't that yet another outlier?
Eli did it with a team made up in many different ways...good running, good passing, good balance, good defense, etc. Of course logic suggests a good running game helps but also keep in mind the passing game in the NFL became far more prevalent for league playoff teams as the Eli-career aged.
just sayin'...
Sick of this BS from the haters.
Its outrageous.
In comment 15737316 Debaser said:
What is he a rookie of something? Geno is a journey men back up. I’d he isn’t good enough to start on a three win rebuilding Seahawks team he sure isn’t starting material here . (Or the jets and what other ten teams he played for) now I think I’ve heard everything. Fact is what goes for the goose goes for the gander. You can’t say Eli sucked but D Jones is playing on a bad team.
Fact is Eli could have gone to play elsewhere he didn’t want to. Where is d jones going except third string on the eagles or something like that.
Sick of this BS from the haters.
There's plenty of blame to go around, it's just that us "haters" give DJ a piece of the blame pie instead of trying to blame everyone else but him
Quote:
I enjoyed Manning when he played well, and I didn't enjoy Manning when he sucked.
I certainly didn't enjoy when he cried about losing his job, and then when the brain dead organization gave it back to him, he sucked and the team dove into a tail spin.
I would bet good money you didn’t enjoy when he played well either… but can’t prove it either way. You’re not an Eli fan. Sad, but it’s the truth. And again, if you think sticking with Eli is why we are here - you aren’t as smart of a fan as you think you are.
Considering you weren't on BBI until August of 2021, which is 2+ years after Eli retired, I'm curious how you can opine on anyone's feelings toward Eli during his career.
Quote:
We know EXACTLY what Jones is.
EXACTLY.
We have a bunch of college games and 3 years of professional games.
We can evaluate what happened.
The people saying,
"We can't properly evaluate Jones"
Are idiots.
END OF STORY.
No more information is needed.
They are saying that shit because they at one time predicted Jones was going to be the shit and now they are so pathetic of a human, that they can't admit they were wrong about a football prediction.
No one cares, your football acumen is not in question.
We don't have any experts here.(Maybe a couple guys, you know who you are. I do not put myself in that group)
Jones will have significantly better stats in 2022 because I could exceed his 2021 production. It was that pitiful.
Jones is JAG. With great talent and scheme he will win some games. He elevates no one. Giving a second contract to that is stupid. I would rather risk an unknown.
I was definitely wrong on Jones. Thought he'd be able to bounce back from his bad year 2 but didn't. Shame on me I guess (not really, i'm just a fan with no impact on the games).
But our GM and HC seem to disagree with you and want to see what he does this year. So no matter how much you hate reading about all the fans wanting to see Jones with a better OL and weapons, just know that those running the team do too. We had 3+ rounds of opportunities to bring in a rookie with pro talent and didn't - I disagree with not doing it, but it is what it is. How much more can this be discussed?
Systematically, I think he will do well this year. Where I have sincere doubts is when shit doesn't happen on schedule. In golf terms, I feel like he "grips it" when the pressure increases situationally and actively.
I saw it at Duke and have seen it for three years. I don't feel that light is going to go on. I think he will perform better this year. It would take a monster year to want to sign him to another contract. I wouldn't actually, If he has that monster year, I franchise him and make him do it again.
I apologize for the overly strong take though. It doesn't make anyone an idiot because they believe differently than I. Ashamed of my post.
Be patient. I think they have a plan. Although they have said positive things about Jones like his work ethic nothing has been said either by words or action that tells us they strongly think they have the right QB imv.
Hopefully, that day is coming very soon.
Quote:
You'd be hard pressed to find a single poster who believes Reese did a good job managing the team from 2012 - 2017. Everyone knows he did a bad job, and he got fired.
So honestly, what's the expiration on blame?
Are you guys going to blame Gettleman if Schoen fields a shitty team in 2025?
Most good teams have guys that are 6-7-8 year veterans which would overlap with Reese’s tenure - so the blame sure as hell stays with him partially. And DG is far from blameless either. They’re both culprits.
And if this team stinks in 2025 like you said - Gettleman sure as shit would deserve some of the blame, absolutely.
If Reese did such a terrible job, why didn't Gettleman immediately begin a tear-down rebuild when he took over?
Either Reese didn't leave the cupboard completely bare, or if he did, Gettleman was an even worse GM than Reese for not only not recognizing that, but further compounding it.
Quote:
In comment 15736953 christian said:
Quote:
You'd be hard pressed to find a single poster who believes Reese did a good job managing the team from 2012 - 2017. Everyone knows he did a bad job, and he got fired.
So honestly, what's the expiration on blame?
Are you guys going to blame Gettleman if Schoen fields a shitty team in 2025?
Most good teams have guys that are 6-7-8 year veterans which would overlap with Reese’s tenure - so the blame sure as hell stays with him partially. And DG is far from blameless either. They’re both culprits.
And if this team stinks in 2025 like you said - Gettleman sure as shit would deserve some of the blame, absolutely.
If Reese did such a terrible job, why didn't Gettleman immediately begin a tear-down rebuild when he took over?
Either Reese didn't leave the cupboard completely bare, or if he did, Gettleman was an even worse GM than Reese for not only not recognizing that, but further compounding it.
Didn’t DG do a tear down? Traded Beckham after a year. Got rid of Hart/Flowers. I can’t recall but didn’t he let DRC or Jackrabbit go? Didn’t resign Collins after a year. I know he traded snacks And traded JPP as well.
Listen if you want to say DGs 4 years were worse than Reese’s last 5 years… I am not going to argue. My argument that this ineptness started around 2013. Reese didn’t leave DG with much and DG certainly made it worse. That’s my point. Does Reese deserve all of the blame for what’s happening now? No but he gets part of the blame which dwindles each year. I mean we have 1 player left in this team and it could be argued he should be cut too left from his tenure. That’s really sad.
You take away his fumbles his rookie year and his passing stats were excellent especially for a rookie. He was #2 all camp and thrown into the fray. Impressive but learning on th job is never easy.
Another bbi myth Jones had this great rookie year. He turned the ball over 39 times and just like you’d expect lost a lot of football games. He then compiled meaningless stats that not one time resulted in a come from behind win.
That is supposed to compare to Phil Simms winning his first five games when got the start on a bad Giants team his rookie year?
All of Eli Mannings supposed bad play on account of all the giants losses are supposed to compare jones 39 turnovers?
Eli had a decent passer rating ; played behind s horrible oline as well and with some really bad defenses as well; but he sucks because the giants lost. But d jones gets a pass. Is this a joke? D jones has 2 channels ; turnovers and garbage time stats or few turnovers and no touchdowns.
I agree with you about Jones’s 2019 season. He showed some good things, but was not good overall.
There is something to the idea that the organization screwed up by keeping Eli at the top of the depth chart, depriving Jones of valuable first-team reps. In hindsight, I would say they should have cut ties with Eli in March 2019, rather than pay his roster bonus, let alone his salary. But that wasn’t going to happen, so there’s no point belaboring it. And nobody could have anticipated how COVID would reshape 2020. But other young QBs like Herbert and Burrow have overcome these issues, so I agree with your key point that they don’t excuse Jones’s shortcomings.
Hopefully, that day is coming very soon.
+1000