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NFT: Mets Minors 6/23/2022

DanMetroMan : 6/23/2022 7:51 am
AAA Grey
AA TBD
A+ TBD
A Diaz

AAA
Lee 0-4, 2 k's
Meyer 2-4
Otanez 1 inning 2 hits 1 run 0 walks 1 k

AA
Alvarez 0-2, 2 BB
Mauricio 0-4, 4 k's (0 for his last 9 with 7 k's)
Baty 1-3, BB, K (June OPS up to .862, only 4 extra base hits but his OBP is pushing .400 for the month)
McIIwain 1-4, 2 k's
Cortes 1-4, 2 k's
McCann 2-4 (rehab)

A+
Newton 0-3, BB, 2 k's (It's been UGLY since his promotion)
Schwartz 1-4, K
Santos 5 innings 9 hits 4 runs 0 walks 9 k's (Last 7 starts... 34.2 innings 34 hits 9 walks 34 k's)
Hardy 1 inning 1 hit 1 run 0 walks 2 k's (quietly having a very nice season)
Big Sammy 1 inning 0 hits 0 runs 1 walk 2 k's (Big Sammy Tavarez now up to 29 k's over 19 innings on the season, walks remain an issue (13) but hitters are hitting .100 against the 6'7 giant)


St. Lucie
Ramirez 0-4, BB, SB, K
Consuegra 0-2, 2 BB, 2 K (Stan "The Man" Consuegra having himself a month .262/.384/.574, 10 extra-base hits, 12 walks vs. 13 k's + 5 steals (he WAS caught 3 times)
Lugo 0-3, BB
Tilien 0-4, K
Dominguez 0-3, BB, 3 k's
Juarez .2 innings 0 walks 3 runs 2 walks 0 k's
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Martino  
DanMetroMan : 6/23/2022 5:16 pm : link
@mets are now "hoping" deGrom is back a few weeks before the 8/2 trade deadline...#Mets
RE: Martino  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 5:55 pm : link
In comment 15739204 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
@mets are now "hoping" deGrom is back a few weeks before the 8/2 trade deadline...#Mets


either way i dont think you can run the calculus of the trade deadline expecting him healthy. I think you need to approach him like Kershaw at this point and build the best rotation you can without him. If he's there it's gravy.
RE: Martino  
pjcas18 : 6/23/2022 5:57 pm : link
In comment 15739204 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
@mets are now "hoping" deGrom is back a few weeks before the 8/2 trade deadline...#Mets


a few weeks before 8/2 is 7/12 that's basically 3 weeks away. Sounds optimistic.
So again...  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 6:47 pm : link
Assuming deGrom is gravy and you just want to count on Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker for the postseason (Maybe Megill as a swing guy too), who are we are acquiring for the rotation that is a clear upgrade from Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker and worth trading big prospects for?
RE: So again...  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 8:13 pm : link
In comment 15739267 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Assuming deGrom is gravy and you just want to count on Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker for the postseason (Maybe Megill as a swing guy too), who are we are acquiring for the rotation that is a clear upgrade from Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker and worth trading big prospects for?


Basically just Montas, Mahle, or Castillo.

I wouldn't do anything crazy but if I could get 1 of them for say Mauricio/Dom/Peterson and saving their current teams extra $ by taking back a possibly useful contract like Laureno or Minor i think i'd pull the trigger. That's fairly comparable to what Berrios returned last deadline.

remember all 3 of them are under control next year and with Walker probably in line to get more $ than the nym can afford at least 1 spot will be opening up.

if someone blows that offer out of the water or their teams don't trade them that's fine too. hopefully at least raised the price tag for another contender.

without 1 of those 3 I'd skip over the 2nd tier and pivot to trying to get Minor cheap (which is probably a non top 20 prospect and taking on his remaining $). best case he never has to start and goes to the bp. worst case he can shift to the rotation to get you through the regular season and then shift back to the pen in the post season (or whenever Megill/JDG get back).
Terrible.  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 8:21 pm : link
So you're giving up a great prospect in Mauricio to upgrade maybe Walker with Castillo in the postseason... (and thats assuming no deGrom or it gets even worse). Is that even an upgrade?

There's also no purpose to trade for a pitcher under control for next year. Carrasco has a friendly team option. I doubt Bassitt and Walker are going to be difficult to maintain if wanted. There's also a million other players like Syndergaard going to be floating around.

I thought with Cohen we could finally move passed moving big prospects for fringe needs.

Major pass for me but thats just my opinion.

Go get Bell and Fulmer for virtually nothing and plug actual holes that will be useful in the postseason.
Scherzer 2.97 FIP  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 8:27 pm : link
Bassitt 3.81 FIP (after a terrible start to the month/now fixed)
Carrasco 3.58 FIP
Walker 3.17 FIP
Megill 3.62 FIP

Castillo 3.47 FIP
Mahle 3.38 FIP
Montsas 3.28 FIP

Where's the upgrade?
If Scherzer and deGrom  
pjcas18 : 6/23/2022 9:06 pm : link
are back at the optimistic time frame and give the Mets 2 - 3 weeks of them in the rotation before the deadline I'd focus on bullpen not starters.

because the way I look at it to be a playoff improvement you're not trying to get someone who can compete with Walker or Carrasco or even Peterson or Megill necessarily, you're looking at someone to replace deGrom or Scherzer.

and that pitcher isn't out there.

I would improve the bullpen though. and I'd spend to do it but I wouldn't settle.
megill is shut down with a shoulder probably through the deadline  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 9:16 pm : link
carrasco is 35 and just left a game with back soreness
scherzer is just coming back and turns 38 next month
bassitt is a free agent at the end of the year
walker is a free agent at the end of the year and who knows if he hits an innings wall like last year

all 3 of montas, mahle, and castillo are under 30 and among the top 25 most valuable SP from 2020-2022 with 200+ combined innings.

Scherzer is #6 and Bassitt is #28, and maybe it's just me but they've been pretty good additions. So adding a younger version of any SP comparable to Bassitt with 1 extra year of control seems like a good idea.
RE: If Scherzer and deGrom  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 9:27 pm : link
In comment 15739548 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
are back at the optimistic time frame and give the Mets 2 - 3 weeks of them in the rotation before the deadline I'd focus on bullpen not starters.

because the way I look at it to be a playoff improvement you're not trying to get someone who can compete with Walker or Carrasco or even Peterson or Megill necessarily, you're looking at someone to replace deGrom or Scherzer.

and that pitcher isn't out there.

I would improve the bullpen though. and I'd spend to do it but I wouldn't settle.


there's definitely not a JDG or Scherzer level player but anyone on that level being available is obviously a rare luxury. if they get to the playoffs healthy and pitching well it's Schilling/Johnson and that's not something most WS teams have.

knowing we may not have many chances to get to the postseason with both of them i'd be aggressive at the deadline because just having the possibility is extremely rare. but knowing the FA pitching market sucks next offseason and they will probably be shopping for a SP trade in 6 months anyway, why not get aggressive now for a guy with the extra term?

The berrios deal was 1 top 50 prospect and SWR - both still in AA a year later. That's not a crazy price tag for a team going for a championship and a pitcher on that level would give them probably the best and deepest rotation in MLB.
RE: If Scherzer and deGrom  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 9:36 pm : link
In comment 15739548 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
are back at the optimistic time frame and give the Mets 2 - 3 weeks of them in the rotation before the deadline I'd focus on bullpen not starters.

because the way I look at it to be a playoff improvement you're not trying to get someone who can compete with Walker or Carrasco or even Peterson or Megill necessarily, you're looking at someone to replace deGrom or Scherzer.

and that pitcher isn't out there.

I would improve the bullpen though. and I'd spend to do it but I wouldn't settle.


That isnt my point. A playoff rotation has FOUR starter MAX. Sometimes three. Even with no deGrom we still have Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker with Megill being a wild card insurance type in case even one of those dont make it. All of those pitchers after Scherzer are of the same ilk as Castillo, Mahle, and Montas so far. Let's say we trade for Castillo. That bumps Walker from the rotation and maybe the entire postseason. Did that upgrade the roster? Do you really want to give up Mauricio plus for such a nominal upgrade?

It just doesnt move the needle on helping us win a WS at all. Sorry.
RE: megill is shut down with a shoulder probably through the deadline  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 9:38 pm : link
In comment 15739594 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
carrasco is 35 and just left a game with back soreness
scherzer is just coming back and turns 38 next month
bassitt is a free agent at the end of the year
walker is a free agent at the end of the year and who knows if he hits an innings wall like last year

all 3 of montas, mahle, and castillo are under 30 and among the top 25 most valuable SP from 2020-2022 with 200+ combined innings.

Scherzer is #6 and Bassitt is #28, and maybe it's just me but they've been pretty good additions. So adding a younger version of any SP comparable to Bassitt with 1 extra year of control seems like a good idea.


Walker is young. Just re-sign him. Problem solved. Dont forget we also have deGrom, Scherzer, Carrasco (friendly team option), Megill, and Peterson committed next year. Add one of Bassitt or Walker and the rotation is already close to full.
Vasil  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 9:43 pm : link
6 IP, 1 run, 5ks
I know what your point was  
pjcas18 : 6/23/2022 9:43 pm : link
but my point was different and it was even with Scherzer but no deGrom I don't see the Mets as slam dunk WS contenders and i wouldn't go all-in on any deadline deals at any positions.

I wouldn't wave the white flag and be sellers, but I'm not trading a top 50 prospect for a hail mary. I'd make "fill-in" moves like Rich Hill-types for depth or the bullpen equivalent of a Hill.

I know they have had good first halfs but I don't trust Carrasco or Walker to pitch as well down the stretch or in the playoffs - even Bassist as the #2 I'm not a huge fan of an doesn't make me believe they're a contender, so I'm not trading highly ranked prospects away (for rentals especially but even non-rentals) without deGrom.

And my point was different than yours anway, I was sayin gid deGrom and Scherzer prove healthy and established rotation pieces, I am more willing to deal, but again for bullpen help not rotation. Even a bat I'd add.
Nevermind PJ  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 9:46 pm : link
I think you were agreeing with me. lol
PJ we are saying the exact same thing...  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 9:48 pm : link
I said earlier I would be all for adding Josh Bell and Michael Fulmer types. Cheap vets that are rentals and wouldnt cost much and most importantly... fill actual needs.
neither of peterson or megill have earned much yet  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 9:49 pm : link
if Megill were healthy right now that would be one thing but he's shut down for a month and we all know shoulder is probably the worst ailment for a pitcher. Peterson has been as good as anyone could have expected so far but he's not exactly overflowing with upside. He's turning 27 in a few months and his best case scenario is probably Niese-ish.

I'm personally not passing on similarly aged pitchers with stronger track records and legitimate TOR upside to hold full time spots for 2 pitchers who have never even thrown 100 innings in a season let alone 150-200. They are both perfectly cast as extra starters until they can do that.

also Carrasco's 14m option may or may not be so team friendly if he doesn't finish strong. the 3m buyout probably makes it unlikely they don't exercise the option but it wouldn't shock me if they trade him to clear the 14m if they'd rather put it towards extended Walker or Bassitt.
Megill and Peterson still arent in my  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 9:52 pm : link
Playoff rotation even without deGrom. So that's moot.
RE: I know what your point was  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 9:56 pm : link
In comment 15739720 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but my point was different and it was even with Scherzer but no deGrom I don't see the Mets as slam dunk WS contenders and i wouldn't go all-in on any deadline deals at any positions.

I wouldn't wave the white flag and be sellers, but I'm not trading a top 50 prospect for a hail mary. I'd make "fill-in" moves like Rich Hill-types for depth or the bullpen equivalent of a Hill.

I know they have had good first halfs but I don't trust Carrasco or Walker to pitch as well down the stretch or in the playoffs - even Bassist as the #2 I'm not a huge fan of an doesn't make me believe they're a contender, so I'm not trading highly ranked prospects away (for rentals especially but even non-rentals) without deGrom.

And my point was different than yours anway, I was sayin gid deGrom and Scherzer prove healthy and established rotation pieces, I am more willing to deal, but again for bullpen help not rotation. Even a bat I'd add.


they have the 2nd best record in baseball without jdg and with Scherzer missing half the season so far. there's no hailmary necessary when a team is 20 games over .500.

if prices are outrageous i have no issue taking the braves approach but if prices are comparable to what they've been in the past i have no issue going bigger. im not doing something stupid like putting alvarez on the table under any circumstance but this is as win now of a team as there is. im not going to prospect hug whoever the 4th, 5th, 6th best guy in the system is with a chance to win this year (and especially if it's a player that can also help next year).
Great news  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 9:57 pm : link
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
James McCann is expected in Miami tomorrow (he may have already arrived), presumably to be activated from the IL.
RE: RE: I know what your point was  
pjcas18 : 6/23/2022 10:04 pm : link
In comment 15739767 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15739720 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


but my point was different and it was even with Scherzer but no deGrom I don't see the Mets as slam dunk WS contenders and i wouldn't go all-in on any deadline deals at any positions.

I wouldn't wave the white flag and be sellers, but I'm not trading a top 50 prospect for a hail mary. I'd make "fill-in" moves like Rich Hill-types for depth or the bullpen equivalent of a Hill.

I know they have had good first halfs but I don't trust Carrasco or Walker to pitch as well down the stretch or in the playoffs - even Bassist as the #2 I'm not a huge fan of an doesn't make me believe they're a contender, so I'm not trading highly ranked prospects away (for rentals especially but even non-rentals) without deGrom.

And my point was different than yours anway, I was sayin gid deGrom and Scherzer prove healthy and established rotation pieces, I am more willing to deal, but again for bullpen help not rotation. Even a bat I'd add.



they have the 2nd best record in baseball without jdg and with Scherzer missing half the season so far. there's no hailmary necessary when a team is 20 games over .500.

if prices are outrageous i have no issue taking the braves approach but if prices are comparable to what they've been in the past i have no issue going bigger. im not doing something stupid like putting alvarez on the table under any circumstance but this is as win now of a team as there is. im not going to prospect hug whoever the 4th, 5th, 6th best guy in the system is with a chance to win this year (and especially if it's a player that can also help next year).


we can agree to disagree. I do not see a rotation of Scherzer, Basssit, Carasco and Walker a WS contender. especially with the inconsistent pen. I don't care how many games over .500 they are in the regular season.

again, not waving the white flag, but also not mortgaging the future rolling the dice that team can win in the playoffs.

1 other point on prospects and cohen  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 10:10 pm : link
Unlike the previous decades if they have a need they can fill it in FA. Trade a PCA sign a Marte. Let Conforto leave sign Canha. Let Thor leave sign Scherzer.

What you can’t do is give up players who end up so good they aren’t available in FA like Alonso and hopefully Alvarez.

That doesn’t mean it’s open season on any prospect but if they are good at self scouting and building a deep system in general it’s a lot easier to gamble knowing you can probably sign a quality player in FA. Or in Mauricio’s case already have a $300m short stop signed for another 10 years.
RE: 1 other point on prospects and cohen  
pjcas18 : 6/23/2022 10:15 pm : link
In comment 15739819 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Unlike the previous decades if they have a need they can fill it in FA. Trade a PCA sign a Marte. Let Conforto leave sign Canha. Let Thor leave sign Scherzer.

What you can’t do is give up players who end up so good they aren’t available in FA like Alonso and hopefully Alvarez.

That doesn’t mean it’s open season on any prospect but if they are good at self scouting and building a deep system in general it’s a lot easier to gamble knowing you can probably sign a quality player in FA. Or in Mauricio’s case already have a $300m short stop signed for another 10 years.


You don't think there will ever be an owner-imposed limit to just buying players to fill holes opened by trading young players possibly earmarked to eventually fill roster holes?

RE: RE: RE: I know what your point was  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 10:16 pm : link
In comment 15739791 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15739767 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 15739720 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


but my point was different and it was even with Scherzer but no deGrom I don't see the Mets as slam dunk WS contenders and i wouldn't go all-in on any deadline deals at any positions.

I wouldn't wave the white flag and be sellers, but I'm not trading a top 50 prospect for a hail mary. I'd make "fill-in" moves like Rich Hill-types for depth or the bullpen equivalent of a Hill.

I know they have had good first halfs but I don't trust Carrasco or Walker to pitch as well down the stretch or in the playoffs - even Bassist as the #2 I'm not a huge fan of an doesn't make me believe they're a contender, so I'm not trading highly ranked prospects away (for rentals especially but even non-rentals) without deGrom.

And my point was different than yours anway, I was sayin gid deGrom and Scherzer prove healthy and established rotation pieces, I am more willing to deal, but again for bullpen help not rotation. Even a bat I'd add.



they have the 2nd best record in baseball without jdg and with Scherzer missing half the season so far. there's no hailmary necessary when a team is 20 games over .500.

if prices are outrageous i have no issue taking the braves approach but if prices are comparable to what they've been in the past i have no issue going bigger. im not doing something stupid like putting alvarez on the table under any circumstance but this is as win now of a team as there is. im not going to prospect hug whoever the 4th, 5th, 6th best guy in the system is with a chance to win this year (and especially if it's a player that can also help next year).



we can agree to disagree. I do not see a rotation of Scherzer, Basssit, Carasco and Walker a WS contender. especially with the inconsistent pen. I don't care how many games over .500 they are in the regular season.

again, not waving the white flag, but also not mortgaging the future rolling the dice that team can win in the playoffs.


agreed to disagree. Just curious but would you have done the cespedes trade at the time?
RE: RE: 1 other point on prospects and cohen  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 10:24 pm : link
In comment 15739837 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15739819 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Unlike the previous decades if they have a need they can fill it in FA. Trade a PCA sign a Marte. Let Conforto leave sign Canha. Let Thor leave sign Scherzer.

What you can’t do is give up players who end up so good they aren’t available in FA like Alonso and hopefully Alvarez.

That doesn’t mean it’s open season on any prospect but if they are good at self scouting and building a deep system in general it’s a lot easier to gamble knowing you can probably sign a quality player in FA. Or in Mauricio’s case already have a $300m short stop signed for another 10 years.



You don't think there will ever be an owner-imposed limit to just buying players to fill holes opened by trading young players possibly earmarked to eventually fill roster holes?


They have very little bad $ committed long term and they have a really good position player pipeline that will help them continue producing cost controlled players.

They have a lot of tough future decisions to make but that’s all the more reason to be aggressive now because the talent value of their roster is probably insane right now if you factor in what Nimmo/McNeil/Alonso are going to be making in a few years.

The biggest org deficiency for the future is SP given JDG and Scherzer are on the back 9 which is another reason why that’s probably the position to be aggressive for if possible. I don’t think I’d give up Mauricio for any position player or BP arm except maybe bednar. Not sure about that one.
I would have done the Cespedes trade for a few  
pjcas18 : 6/23/2022 10:30 pm : link
reasons (vs say Baez last year).

1. the upgrade Cespedes represented

2. I didn't view Fulmer as hard to replace as PCA in the Mets prospect rankings

3. I felt like the Mets had underperformed to that point. We all did.

4. I was relieved they didn't trade Wheeler

Not going to lie and say I expected Cespedes to perform how he did or the Mets to make it to the WS, but that trade at that time I supported and I don't think that situation was similar to last year with Baez.

Need to wait a few weeks to see how the Mets are positioned heading to this deadline, but if it's no deGrom and an iffy Scherzer I'm not interested, if it's no deGrom and solid Scherzer I'm moderately interested (not going all-in), if it's solid deGrom and solid Scherzer I'm all in
You can definitely win a WS with  
ZGiants98 : 6/23/2022 10:33 pm : link
Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker lol. Did the Braves have a better front four than that last year?

The only team that can win a championship needs the two best pitchers on the planet to do it?

Not having deGrom just puts us in line with everyone else. Nobody has two pitchers as good as deGrom and Scherzer, if healthy.
RE: I would have done the Cespedes trade for a few  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 10:53 pm : link
In comment 15739890 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
reasons (vs say Baez last year).

1. the upgrade Cespedes represented

2. I didn't view Fulmer as hard to replace as PCA in the Mets prospect rankings

3. I felt like the Mets had underperformed to that point. We all did.

4. I was relieved they didn't trade Wheeler

Not going to lie and say I expected Cespedes to perform how he did or the Mets to make it to the WS, but that trade at that time I supported and I don't think that situation was similar to last year with Baez.

Need to wait a few weeks to see how the Mets are positioned heading to this deadline, but if it's no deGrom and an iffy Scherzer I'm not interested, if it's no deGrom and solid Scherzer I'm moderately interested (not going all-in), if it's solid deGrom and solid Scherzer I'm all in


I obviously liked both trades but had a harder time giving up Fulmer than PCA because he was in the middle of a great season at AA. I think he actually got to the big leagues for Detroit that sept. PCA was both injured and farther away.

I thought Baez also made sense to potentially resign, and the Mets seemed to feel that way too. Cespedes at the time was a rental only bc he had language in his contract that he couldn’t extend with his previous team (and even if he could none of us expected the wilponzis to pay up). They got lucky (or unlucky he had no market).

The Stroman trade I hated with the fire of one thousand suns because they should have just resigned wheeler who wanted to extend and was the better pitcher.

This year I don’t think they can decide based on 1 or 2 starts by JDG in July. Whatever he gives them is a bonus. I think the only thing they need to determine is whether there’s a sp they can acquire that’s a legitimate TOR pitcher and if the price of acquisition is fair. Scherzer, Montas, Bassitt is in my opinion a top 3 that can compete with pretty much any other team even if JDG doesn’t come back. I’m not trading Alvarez or Vientos but I’d be thinking very hard about which top 100 prospect I’d be willing to trade.
i was wrong fulmer didn't get called up until 2016 but he ended up roy  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 11:15 pm : link
and actually came in 10th in CY voting. With the premium on SP he was tough to give up but obviously worth it for the WS run. seeing how big of an impact not only cespedes but zobrist for KC had that year put me in the camp of when you have a shot you should take it. I think in 2016 the cubs did the same with Chapman/Torres?

obviously need to balance the risk/reward and ideally make good decisions on who you're giving up and getting, but 20 games over .500 without any season long injuries i'm leaning aggressive.
back to minors talk i think vientos got on base more tonight  
Eric on Li : 6/23/2022 11:25 pm : link
the entire bottom 1/3 of the mets lineup for the past week+.

Quote:
Michael Mayer @mikemayer22
57m
Mark Vientos was on base four times tonight for Triple-A Syracuse, he had two singles and two walks.

OPS up to .858 on the season.
RE: You can definitely win a WS with  
moze1021 : 6/23/2022 11:47 pm : link
In comment 15739907 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker lol. Did the Braves have a better front four than that last year?

The only team that can win a championship needs the two best pitchers on the planet to do it?

Not having deGrom just puts us in line with everyone else. Nobody has two pitchers as good as deGrom and Scherzer, if healthy.


Agreed.

Additionally, if they don't have Jake this year, it might just mean no one ever has him again.,.so you have to go all in and get the next guy anyway... That doesn't mean trading Alvarez of course, he's untouchable as they come... But if you can get a controllable asset back they should be aggressive in making a deal
RE: You can definitely win a WS with  
pjcas18 : 6/24/2022 8:04 am : link
In comment 15739907 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker lol. Did the Braves have a better front four than that last year?

The only team that can win a championship needs the two best pitchers on the planet to do it?

Not having deGrom just puts us in line with everyone else. Nobody has two pitchers as good as deGrom and Scherzer, if healthy.


That assumes Walker doesn't implode second half like last year and Carrasco stays healthy and effective.

Possible, but no guarantee on either.

But like I said with Scherzer but not deGrom I'm willing to add between now and the deadline, but I have limits with who I'd be willing to give up in that scenario because I'm less confident.

RE: Terrible.  
GF1080 : 6/24/2022 8:16 am : link
In comment 15739416 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
So you're giving up a great prospect in Mauricio to upgrade maybe Walker with Castillo in the postseason... (and thats assuming no deGrom or it gets even worse). Is that even an upgrade?

There's also no purpose to trade for a pitcher under control for next year. Carrasco has a friendly team option. I doubt Bassitt and Walker are going to be difficult to maintain if wanted. There's also a million other players like Syndergaard going to be floating around.

I thought with Cohen we could finally move passed moving big prospects for fringe needs.

Major pass for me but thats just my opinion.

Go get Bell and Fulmer for virtually nothing and plug actual holes that will be useful in the postseason.


Have you seen Mauricio's numbers this year? His value is plummeting. I don't even know if I'd call him a great prospect anymore.
I would trade Mauricio in a package for Castillo in a second  
KDavies : 6/24/2022 9:39 am : link
I am not banking on Scherzer, deGrom, Bassitt, Walker, and Carrasco all being healthy. If you have two out, say Walker and Carrasco, are you fine going with Peterson in a playoff game?

I am moving Megill to the pen this year when he's back. He can only pitch so many innings, and can be a valuable upgrade there IMO.

The time is short with Scherzer and deGrom. If those two are healthy, the Mets have as good a chance as any team in the league. I'm not risking my chances having to start a Peterson in a playoff game for a Mauricio. He's not Alvarez, Baty, or Vientos. The Mets will draft two players better than him. It is hardly jeopardizing your future trading Mauricio. His realistic likelihood peak is of a corner OF who hits 8th or 9th for the Mets.

The Mets future is Alvarez, Vientos, Baty, the 11th and 14th picks, etc. It is not Mauricio. You can sign a FA for $10 million who can give you what he will.

the appropriate question you should be asking is  
KDavies : 6/24/2022 9:55 am : link
if Mauricio is enough to headline a package for a Castillo, Montas, or a Mahle. He's obviously the top prospect I'm trading for those guys, and I consider Vientos better than Mauricio. But I hope it's enough
RE: the appropriate question you should be asking is  
Metnut : 6/24/2022 10:06 am : link
In comment 15740316 KDavies said:
Quote:
if Mauricio is enough to headline a package for a Castillo, Montas, or a Mahle. He's obviously the top prospect I'm trading for those guys, and I consider Vientos better than Mauricio. But I hope it's enough


Montas would give you two playoffs runs and you can QO him after 2023 and get a comp pick. I’d consider moving a Baty (but not Alvarez or Vientos) for him. Would really depend on how Bassit and Carrasco look before the deadline.

Our #3 guy will presumably need to make at least 4-5 playoff starts if we’re going to win the World Series. One of Bassit or Carrasco need to look lights out for me not to want to add another SP.
Montas has a lower xFIP than Scherzer in 2022  
Metnut : 6/24/2022 10:09 am : link
per fangraphs so you’d be getting a true difference maker. You could also qualify Bassit and let him walk and add another comp pick too if you have Montas.

The question for me is whether we’d rather an another elite SP or whether pen help or another bat is a bigger need.
RE: RE: the appropriate question you should be asking is  
KDavies : 6/24/2022 10:12 am : link
In comment 15740325 Metnut said:
Quote:
In comment 15740316 KDavies said:


Quote:


if Mauricio is enough to headline a package for a Castillo, Montas, or a Mahle. He's obviously the top prospect I'm trading for those guys, and I consider Vientos better than Mauricio. But I hope it's enough



Montas would give you two playoffs runs and you can QO him after 2023 and get a comp pick. I’d consider moving a Baty (but not Alvarez or Vientos) for him. Would really depend on how Bassit and Carrasco look before the deadline.

Our #3 guy will presumably need to make at least 4-5 playoff starts if we’re going to win the World Series. One of Bassit or Carrasco need to look lights out for me not to want to add another SP.


Even if one of Bassit or Carrasco look lights out, one of them could get injured, as could a deGrom. Baty is a real tough one to consider, but I don't understand not trading a Mauricio for a pitcher of that caliber.

Given where the Mets are  
JB_in_DC : 6/24/2022 10:24 am : link
with their two best players being 37 and 34 (assuming Jake can get back), you absolutely need to be willing to trade a prospect of Mauricio's caliber. Would be asinine not to be.

Will there be a worthwhile trade to be made is another question.
im on the same page kd and metnut  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 10:25 am : link
the question is really just price and how good they view the players on the market.

last year berrios was traded for Austin Martin and SWR. Both were in AA at the time. Martin was a 2020 first round pick who's played both SS and OF so he's got some interesting similarities to both Baty/Mauricio. Last year he was basically ranked as the #20 prospect in MLB and in the futures game but this year he's fallen back to the 50 range and he's probably taking a pretty big hit so far because he's only got a .680 OPS repeating AA at age 23. When traded he was same age as Baty and a year older than Mauricio.

SWR I think we are all pretty familiar with, he's also repeating AA right now and having a decent year. he's been a fringe top 100 since being traded by the mets.

I feel confident in saying 1 of Mauricio/Baty would work as a headliner, and that's probably the decision the Mets will be forced to make. Are they willing to trade either since some teams likely prefer 1 or the other? or do they have a strong preference? I believe in Baty's approach more than Mauricio's but I think we also should keep in mind Mauricio is a year younger at the same level and will likely have more positional versatility.

beyond them im not so worried about spare parts in any deal and since both the reds and oak are trying to save money they should definitely help facilitate the trade by taking back contracts. that may not knock out the LAD or NYY but it could help keep their bid stronger than some of the other mid market teams.
Metnut  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 10:33 am : link
In comment 15740332 Metnut said:
Quote:
per fangraphs so you’d be getting a true difference maker. You could also qualify Bassit and let him walk and add another comp pick too if you have Montas.

The question for me is whether we’d rather an another elite SP or whether pen help or another bat is a bigger need.


so far i haven't seen any RP names that would require a top prospect except Bednar, who has a few years of control so im not sure it's a given Pitt puts him on the market unless the price is crazy. rp are so volatile it's hard for me to say whether or not he's worth a real strong package. other than bednar i think minor is probably my favorite RP option and i think right now the main comp required to get him is taking on his remaining $5m.

that's basically true with the hitters also, and while i think the mets will add one i think it's more likely they take someone as more of a pure rental in a salary dump type deal. they don't need a superstar just someone who can lengthen the order.

if SD has a youngish or prospect P they like similar to Pollack they may even want to revisit the Dom for Hosmer + SP trade. Hosmer is slashing .282/.346/.407 and a 112 RC. McNeil, Canha, Hosmer 5/6/7 would be 3 tough outs behind Alonso. Guillorme/Escobar/Vientos could hit 8th and mix in at 3b and DH.
I'm not far off from most of you  
pjcas18 : 6/24/2022 10:34 am : link
my big thing is properly assessing the teams playoff chances and having that drive the deadline transactions.

With deGrom and Scherzer: all in, no one is untouchable except maybe Alavarez - legit WS contender

with Scherzer but no on deGrom: I support adding, but I have limitations on how much/who I would trade

with deGrom but no on Scherzer I'd be a little more willing to add if deGrom looks like deGrom,

Unclear on the availability of both deGrom and Scherzer I roll with the roster as is or make minor tweaks like Rich Hill type players.

I know nothing is guaranteed health wise, so it's a gamble, but that's why 7/12 - 8/2 is so important to get a glimpse of a deGrom and Scherzer led rotation.
here are the mets playoff chances today per BR  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 10:49 am : link
and before dismissing Eppler was quoted a few times this offseason saying that he even looks at the oddsmakers as an interesting data point to where his roster is.

playoffs = 96%
division = 69%
wild card = 27%
reach LDS = 77%
reach LCS = 37%
penant = 15%
Win WS = 6%

and these aren't random odds from a guy in a sports book, here's their methodology:

Quote:
MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-06-23. This page does not update during the postseason.


from the last 100 games JDG has appeared in 0 and Scherzer started 8. So these are mostly odds without either of them considered.

knowing all of that and knowing it's very possible history repeats with either of them given their ages, im only counting on 1 of them being healthy in the postseason so the question is how to make sure you have at least 3 other competent playoff starters (and a strong bp) behind them?

the optimal way to do that is adding another prime aged starter with a reliable track on the level of Bassitt. Then you have those 2 and only need 1 of Carrasco/Walker to be healthy and pitching well. and if you end up with extra starters healthy/pitching well they improve the BP in the postseason.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-playoff-odds.shtml - ( New Window )
RE: here are the mets playoff chances today per BR  
Vanzetti : 6/25/2022 11:56 pm : link
In comment 15740428 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
and before dismissing Eppler was quoted a few times this offseason saying that he even looks at the oddsmakers as an interesting data point to where his roster is.

playoffs = 96%
division = 69%
wild card = 27%
reach LDS = 77%
reach LCS = 37%
penant = 15%
Win WS = 6%

and these aren't random odds from a guy in a sports book, here's their methodology:



Quote:


MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-06-23. This page does not update during the postseason.



from the last 100 games JDG has appeared in 0 and Scherzer started 8. So these are mostly odds without either of them considered.

knowing all of that and knowing it's very possible history repeats with either of them given their ages, im only counting on 1 of them being healthy in the postseason so the question is how to make sure you have at least 3 other competent playoff starters (and a strong bp) behind them?

the optimal way to do that is adding another prime aged starter with a reliable track on the level of Bassitt. Then you have those 2 and only need 1 of Carrasco/Walker to be healthy and pitching well. and if you end up with extra starters healthy/pitching well they improve the BP in the postseason. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-playoff-odds.shtml - ( New Window )



Using games from last season makes no sense. I realize they are trying to increase the sample size but some teams--like the Mets--are very different in composition.

Its still interesting  
Vanzetti : 6/25/2022 11:57 pm : link
but I wish they had run the simulations with the games this season
73 games into the season with a 5 game lead  
NYGgolfer : 6/26/2022 10:04 am : link
and we are putting up high %s of making the playoffs? Way too early if you know anything about being a baseball fan no matter how those simulations were run.

Dog days of summer are about to start and plenty of things can/will happen over the next few months. One game at a time.



Harper fractured wrist  
GNewGiants : 6/26/2022 10:13 am : link
Phillies done.
Harper fractured wrist  
GNewGiants : 6/26/2022 10:13 am : link
Phillies done.
RE: Its still interesting  
Eric on Li : 6/26/2022 10:54 am : link
In comment 15741341 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
but I wish they had run the simulations with the games this season


i think they are using the individual players performance in the last 100 games not the players who were on the team the previous year and no longer there. that would make no sense.
big game at bing  
Eric on Li : 6/26/2022 11:03 am : link
Mauricio was 2/4 with a homer and 4 rbis (3 of them 2 out RBIs)
Alvarez was 3/5 with a homer and 1 rbi
Baty was 1/4 with a walk.

Vientos was 0/2 with 2 walks at AAA and has 8 walks in his last 7 games so wonder if they are started to just pitch around him. 0 xbh in that stretch while increasing his obp%.

also interesting comment in yesterday's met broadcast supposedly Scherzer came back from bing talking about alvarez and said he's ready to hit in the big leagues already. he and vientos should be promoted.
Double trouble: Álvarez, Mauricio homer for Binghamton - ( New Window )
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