NFT: Mets Minors 6/23/2022

Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker lol. Did the Braves have a better front four than that last year?

The only team that can win a championship needs the two best pitchers on the planet to do it?

Not having deGrom just puts us in line with everyone else. Nobody has two pitchers as good as deGrom and Scherzer, if healthy.

In comment 15739890 pjcas18 said:

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reasons (vs say Baez last year). 1. the upgrade Cespedes represented 2. I didn't view Fulmer as hard to replace as PCA in the Mets prospect rankings 3. I felt like the Mets had underperformed to that point. We all did. 4. I was relieved they didn't trade Wheeler Not going to lie and say I expected Cespedes to perform how he did or the Mets to make it to the WS, but that trade at that time I supported and I don't think that situation was similar to last year with Baez. Need to wait a few weeks to see how the Mets are positioned heading to this deadline, but if it's no deGrom and an iffy Scherzer I'm not interested, if it's no deGrom and solid Scherzer I'm moderately interested (not going all-in), if it's solid deGrom and solid Scherzer I'm all in

I obviously liked both trades but had a harder time giving up Fulmer than PCA because he was in the middle of a great season at AA. I think he actually got to the big leagues for Detroit that sept. PCA was both injured and farther away.

I thought Baez also made sense to potentially resign, and the Mets seemed to feel that way too. Cespedes at the time was a rental only bc he had language in his contract that he couldn’t extend with his previous team (and even if he could none of us expected the wilponzis to pay up). They got lucky (or unlucky he had no market).

The Stroman trade I hated with the fire of one thousand suns because they should have just resigned wheeler who wanted to extend and was the better pitcher.

This year I don’t think they can decide based on 1 or 2 starts by JDG in July. Whatever he gives them is a bonus. I think the only thing they need to determine is whether there’s a sp they can acquire that’s a legitimate TOR pitcher and if the price of acquisition is fair. Scherzer, Montas, Bassitt is in my opinion a top 3 that can compete with pretty much any other team even if JDG doesn’t come back. I’m not trading Alvarez or Vientos but I’d be thinking very hard about which top 100 prospect I’d be willing to trade.

and actually came in 10th in CY voting. With the premium on SP he was tough to give up but obviously worth it for the WS run. seeing how big of an impact not only cespedes but zobrist for KC had that year put me in the camp of when you have a shot you should take it. I think in 2016 the cubs did the same with Chapman/Torres?

obviously need to balance the risk/reward and ideally make good decisions on who you're giving up and getting, but 20 games over .500 without any season long injuries i'm leaning aggressive.

the entire bottom 1/3 of the mets lineup for the past week+.

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Michael Mayer @mikemayer22 57m Mark Vientos was on base four times tonight for Triple-A Syracuse, he had two singles and two walks. OPS up to .858 on the season.

In comment 15739907 ZGiants98 said:

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Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker lol. Did the Braves have a better front four than that last year? The only team that can win a championship needs the two best pitchers on the planet to do it? Not having deGrom just puts us in line with everyone else. Nobody has two pitchers as good as deGrom and Scherzer, if healthy.

Agreed.

Additionally, if they don't have Jake this year, it might just mean no one ever has him again.,.so you have to go all in and get the next guy anyway... That doesn't mean trading Alvarez of course, he's untouchable as they come... But if you can get a controllable asset back they should be aggressive in making a deal

In comment 15739907 ZGiants98 said:

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Scherzer, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker lol. Did the Braves have a better front four than that last year? The only team that can win a championship needs the two best pitchers on the planet to do it? Not having deGrom just puts us in line with everyone else. Nobody has two pitchers as good as deGrom and Scherzer, if healthy.

That assumes Walker doesn't implode second half like last year and Carrasco stays healthy and effective.

Possible, but no guarantee on either.

But like I said with Scherzer but not deGrom I'm willing to add between now and the deadline, but I have limits with who I'd be willing to give up in that scenario because I'm less confident.

In comment 15739416 ZGiants98 said:

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So you're giving up a great prospect in Mauricio to upgrade maybe Walker with Castillo in the postseason... (and thats assuming no deGrom or it gets even worse). Is that even an upgrade? There's also no purpose to trade for a pitcher under control for next year. Carrasco has a friendly team option. I doubt Bassitt and Walker are going to be difficult to maintain if wanted. There's also a million other players like Syndergaard going to be floating around. I thought with Cohen we could finally move passed moving big prospects for fringe needs. Major pass for me but thats just my opinion. Go get Bell and Fulmer for virtually nothing and plug actual holes that will be useful in the postseason.

Have you seen Mauricio's numbers this year? His value is plummeting. I don't even know if I'd call him a great prospect anymore.

I am not banking on Scherzer, deGrom, Bassitt, Walker, and Carrasco all being healthy. If you have two out, say Walker and Carrasco, are you fine going with Peterson in a playoff game?

I am moving Megill to the pen this year when he's back. He can only pitch so many innings, and can be a valuable upgrade there IMO.

The time is short with Scherzer and deGrom. If those two are healthy, the Mets have as good a chance as any team in the league. I'm not risking my chances having to start a Peterson in a playoff game for a Mauricio. He's not Alvarez, Baty, or Vientos. The Mets will draft two players better than him. It is hardly jeopardizing your future trading Mauricio. His realistic likelihood peak is of a corner OF who hits 8th or 9th for the Mets.

The Mets future is Alvarez, Vientos, Baty, the 11th and 14th picks, etc. It is not Mauricio. You can sign a FA for $10 million who can give you what he will.

if Mauricio is enough to headline a package for a Castillo, Montas, or a Mahle. He's obviously the top prospect I'm trading for those guys, and I consider Vientos better than Mauricio. But I hope it's enough

In comment 15740316 KDavies said:

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if Mauricio is enough to headline a package for a Castillo, Montas, or a Mahle. He's obviously the top prospect I'm trading for those guys, and I consider Vientos better than Mauricio. But I hope it's enough

Montas would give you two playoffs runs and you can QO him after 2023 and get a comp pick. I’d consider moving a Baty (but not Alvarez or Vientos) for him. Would really depend on how Bassit and Carrasco look before the deadline.

Our #3 guy will presumably need to make at least 4-5 playoff starts if we’re going to win the World Series. One of Bassit or Carrasco need to look lights out for me not to want to add another SP.

per fangraphs so you’d be getting a true difference maker. You could also qualify Bassit and let him walk and add another comp pick too if you have Montas.

The question for me is whether we’d rather an another elite SP or whether pen help or another bat is a bigger need.

In comment 15740325 Metnut said:

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In comment 15740316 KDavies said: Quote: if Mauricio is enough to headline a package for a Castillo, Montas, or a Mahle. He's obviously the top prospect I'm trading for those guys, and I consider Vientos better than Mauricio. But I hope it's enough Montas would give you two playoffs runs and you can QO him after 2023 and get a comp pick. I’d consider moving a Baty (but not Alvarez or Vientos) for him. Would really depend on how Bassit and Carrasco look before the deadline. Our #3 guy will presumably need to make at least 4-5 playoff starts if we’re going to win the World Series. One of Bassit or Carrasco need to look lights out for me not to want to add another SP.

Even if one of Bassit or Carrasco look lights out, one of them could get injured, as could a deGrom. Baty is a real tough one to consider, but I don't understand not trading a Mauricio for a pitcher of that caliber.

with their two best players being 37 and 34 (assuming Jake can get back), you absolutely need to be willing to trade a prospect of Mauricio's caliber. Would be asinine not to be.

Will there be a worthwhile trade to be made is another question.

the question is really just price and how good they view the players on the market.

last year berrios was traded for Austin Martin and SWR. Both were in AA at the time. Martin was a 2020 first round pick who's played both SS and OF so he's got some interesting similarities to both Baty/Mauricio. Last year he was basically ranked as the #20 prospect in MLB and in the futures game but this year he's fallen back to the 50 range and he's probably taking a pretty big hit so far because he's only got a .680 OPS repeating AA at age 23. When traded he was same age as Baty and a year older than Mauricio.

SWR I think we are all pretty familiar with, he's also repeating AA right now and having a decent year. he's been a fringe top 100 since being traded by the mets.

I feel confident in saying 1 of Mauricio/Baty would work as a headliner, and that's probably the decision the Mets will be forced to make. Are they willing to trade either since some teams likely prefer 1 or the other? or do they have a strong preference? I believe in Baty's approach more than Mauricio's but I think we also should keep in mind Mauricio is a year younger at the same level and will likely have more positional versatility.

beyond them im not so worried about spare parts in any deal and since both the reds and oak are trying to save money they should definitely help facilitate the trade by taking back contracts. that may not knock out the LAD or NYY but it could help keep their bid stronger than some of the other mid market teams.

In comment 15740332 Metnut said:

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per fangraphs so you’d be getting a true difference maker. You could also qualify Bassit and let him walk and add another comp pick too if you have Montas. The question for me is whether we’d rather an another elite SP or whether pen help or another bat is a bigger need.

so far i haven't seen any RP names that would require a top prospect except Bednar, who has a few years of control so im not sure it's a given Pitt puts him on the market unless the price is crazy. rp are so volatile it's hard for me to say whether or not he's worth a real strong package. other than bednar i think minor is probably my favorite RP option and i think right now the main comp required to get him is taking on his remaining $5m.

that's basically true with the hitters also, and while i think the mets will add one i think it's more likely they take someone as more of a pure rental in a salary dump type deal. they don't need a superstar just someone who can lengthen the order.

if SD has a youngish or prospect P they like similar to Pollack they may even want to revisit the Dom for Hosmer + SP trade. Hosmer is slashing .282/.346/.407 and a 112 RC. McNeil, Canha, Hosmer 5/6/7 would be 3 tough outs behind Alonso. Guillorme/Escobar/Vientos could hit 8th and mix in at 3b and DH.

my big thing is properly assessing the teams playoff chances and having that drive the deadline transactions.

With deGrom and Scherzer: all in, no one is untouchable except maybe Alavarez - legit WS contender

with Scherzer but no on deGrom: I support adding, but I have limitations on how much/who I would trade

with deGrom but no on Scherzer I'd be a little more willing to add if deGrom looks like deGrom,

Unclear on the availability of both deGrom and Scherzer I roll with the roster as is or make minor tweaks like Rich Hill type players.

I know nothing is guaranteed health wise, so it's a gamble, but that's why 7/12 - 8/2 is so important to get a glimpse of a deGrom and Scherzer led rotation.

and before dismissing Eppler was quoted a few times this offseason saying that he even looks at the oddsmakers as an interesting data point to where his roster is.

playoffs = 96%
division = 69%
wild card = 27%
reach LDS = 77%
reach LCS = 37%
penant = 15%
Win WS = 6%

and these aren't random odds from a guy in a sports book, here's their methodology:

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MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-06-23. This page does not update during the postseason.

from the last 100 games JDG has appeared in 0 and Scherzer started 8. So these are mostly odds without either of them considered.

knowing all of that and knowing it's very possible history repeats with either of them given their ages, im only counting on 1 of them being healthy in the postseason so the question is how to make sure you have at least 3 other competent playoff starters (and a strong bp) behind them?

the optimal way to do that is adding another prime aged starter with a reliable track on the level of Bassitt. Then you have those 2 and only need 1 of Carrasco/Walker to be healthy and pitching well. and if you end up with extra starters healthy/pitching well they improve the BP in the postseason.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-playoff-odds.shtml - ( New Window )

In comment 15740428 Eric on Li said:

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and before dismissing Eppler was quoted a few times this offseason saying that he even looks at the oddsmakers as an interesting data point to where his roster is. playoffs = 96% division = 69% wild card = 27% reach LDS = 77% reach LCS = 37% penant = 15% Win WS = 6% and these aren't random odds from a guy in a sports book, here's their methodology: Quote: MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-06-23. This page does not update during the postseason. from the last 100 games JDG has appeared in 0 and Scherzer started 8. So these are mostly odds without either of them considered. knowing all of that and knowing it's very possible history repeats with either of them given their ages, im only counting on 1 of them being healthy in the postseason so the question is how to make sure you have at least 3 other competent playoff starters (and a strong bp) behind them? the optimal way to do that is adding another prime aged starter with a reliable track on the level of Bassitt. Then you have those 2 and only need 1 of Carrasco/Walker to be healthy and pitching well. and if you end up with extra starters healthy/pitching well they improve the BP in the postseason. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-playoff-odds.shtml - ( New Window )

Using games from last season makes no sense. I realize they are trying to increase the sample size but some teams--like the Mets--are very different in composition.

but I wish they had run the simulations with the games this season

and we are putting up high %s of making the playoffs? Way too early if you know anything about being a baseball fan no matter how those simulations were run.

Dog days of summer are about to start and plenty of things can/will happen over the next few months. One game at a time.

Phillies done.

Phillies done.

In comment 15741341 Vanzetti said:

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but I wish they had run the simulations with the games this season

i think they are using the individual players performance in the last 100 games not the players who were on the team the previous year and no longer there. that would make no sense.

Mauricio was 2/4 with a homer and 4 rbis (3 of them 2 out RBIs)
Alvarez was 3/5 with a homer and 1 rbi
Baty was 1/4 with a walk.

Vientos was 0/2 with 2 walks at AAA and has 8 walks in his last 7 games so wonder if they are started to just pitch around him. 0 xbh in that stretch while increasing his obp%.

also interesting comment in yesterday's met broadcast supposedly Scherzer came back from bing talking about alvarez and said he's ready to hit in the big leagues already. he and vientos should be promoted.
Double trouble: Álvarez, Mauricio homer for Binghamton - ( New Window )