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NFT: Mets Minors 6/24/2022

DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 10:21 am
AAA Cahill
AA Valverde
A+ TBD
A Atencio

AAA
Vientos 2-3, 2 BB
Lee 0-2, 3 BB, K
Orze 1.1 innings 3 hits 1 run 0 walks 1 k

AA
McIIwain 2-4, 2B, 2 walks, K (nice)
Baty 3-4, HR, BB, K (.947 June OPS, slugging .529 with .418 OBP)
Mauricio 1-5, K (June OBP down to .274)
Senger 0-4 BB, 2 k's
Alvarez 0-2, 3 BB, K (if they continue to pitch around him, I expect a promotion to Syracuse within the next 2 weeks)

St. Lucie
Ramirez 1-4, BB, SB, K (struggling this month BUT 9 steals in 11 attempts)
ODLS 2-4, SB, K (39! steals)
Tilien 2-4, K
Dominguez 0-3, 2 k's
Diaz 1.1 innings 3 hits 3 runs 2 walks 2 k's (really struggling so far, very young)
Scott 4.1 innings 8 hits 3 er 0 walks 7 k's
Gomez 1.2 innings 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 4 k's (one to watch)



BK Palmer 0-2, BB, K
Newton 0-2 (average down to .161)
Vasil 6 innings 4 hits 1 run 0 walks 5 k's (Strong bounce back from his worst start)
Hartwig 1 perfect 2 k's

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In St. Lucie  
pjcas18 : 6/24/2022 10:25 am : link
do they tell Ramirez and Consuegra to steal every single time they reach base?

RE: In St. Lucie  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 10:27 am : link
In comment 15740357 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
do they tell Ramirez and Consuegra to steal every single time they reach base?


They do let them run a LOT more in St. Lucie than other teams in the organization. As to why, no idea.
.  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 10:28 am : link
Underrated performer alert... UDFA Grant Hartwig 26.2 innings 22 hits 8 walks 13.68 K/9 (7th best mark 10+ innings) 2.00 FIP (3rd best mark in the organization 10+ innings)
.  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 10:43 am : link
Saul Gonzalez 11 innings 13.09 K/9, 2.20 FIP (6th in FIP, 10th in K/9 amongst Mets pitchers with 10+ innings)
I am completely with you on the Alvarez parenthetical  
KDavies : 6/24/2022 10:44 am : link
I saw the box score this morning, and saw the 3 walks. 5 in the past 2 games. If this continues and noone is throwing Alvarez strikes, he needs to be moved up ASAP. That is a red flag that he is too good for the league.
Baez  
GF1080 : 6/24/2022 10:48 am : link
Baez hit his 4th HR yesterday as well for the DSL Mets 2.

Hoping Diaz gets things figured out.
RE: Baez  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 10:52 am : link
In comment 15740426 GF1080 said:
Quote:
Baez hit his 4th HR yesterday as well for the DSL Mets 2.

Hoping Diaz gets things figured out.


I'm having a busy morning at work so I haven't had a chance to get around to FCL/DSL but yes Baez homered, Juan 2 hits 2b/SB (looks the part, I watched most of the game), Christopher Suero can REALLY throw from behind the plate. Hector Rodriguez 3 hits for the FCL Mets.
i wonder if they time the vientos/baty/alvarez promotions together?  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 10:53 am : link
would kind of suck for Mauricio to lose all his protection and be the 1 guy left behind in AA so maybe they hold on Baty a little longer until they are sure Vientos isn't going back down? But I doubt that's much of a concern because they can share 3b/DH/1B. Baty has started a few games in LF too.
.  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 10:53 am : link
Brendan Hardy FIP down to 1.75 (2nd in the organization), 15.66 K/9 (1st in the organization), 42% K% (1st in the organization)
RE: i wonder if they time the vientos/baty/alvarez promotions together?  
moze1021 : 6/24/2022 11:05 am : link
In comment 15740435 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
would kind of suck for Mauricio to lose all his protection and be the 1 guy left behind in AA so maybe they hold on Baty a little longer until they are sure Vientos isn't going back down? But I doubt that's much of a concern because they can share 3b/DH/1B. Baty has started a few games in LF too.


Oooh... good points here. Perhaps they protect Mauricio and allow Baty to continue raking through the deadline?
RE: i wonder if they time the vientos/baty/alvarez promotions together?  
KDavies : 6/24/2022 11:07 am : link
In comment 15740435 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
would kind of suck for Mauricio to lose all his protection and be the 1 guy left behind in AA so maybe they hold on Baty a little longer until they are sure Vientos isn't going back down? But I doubt that's much of a concern because they can share 3b/DH/1B. Baty has started a few games in LF too.


Barring injury, do the Mets have the roster capacity to absorb the promotions of those three prior to roster expansion?
RE: RE: i wonder if they time the vientos/baty/alvarez promotions together?  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 11:07 am : link
In comment 15740448 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15740435 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


would kind of suck for Mauricio to lose all his protection and be the 1 guy left behind in AA so maybe they hold on Baty a little longer until they are sure Vientos isn't going back down? But I doubt that's much of a concern because they can share 3b/DH/1B. Baty has started a few games in LF too.



Oooh... good points here. Perhaps they protect Mauricio and allow Baty to continue raking through the deadline?


that would make sense. Vientos and Alvarez should both move soon, in the last few days Vientos has seemed to show more pitch selection and maybe that's something they are having him do to prepare for moving up? seeing both of them tested at a higher level pre-deadline is imo important because they could each factor in with the big club this year.

and you're 100% right, having Baty/Mauricio rake as best they can until the deadline is probably the right move.
RE: RE: i wonder if they time the vientos/baty/alvarez promotions together?  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 11:11 am : link
In comment 15740451 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 15740435 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


would kind of suck for Mauricio to lose all his protection and be the 1 guy left behind in AA so maybe they hold on Baty a little longer until they are sure Vientos isn't going back down? But I doubt that's much of a concern because they can share 3b/DH/1B. Baty has started a few games in LF too.



Barring injury, do the Mets have the roster capacity to absorb the promotions of those three prior to roster expansion?


you mean 2? Vientos/Alvarez?

Vientos right now yes. Plummer is still on the active roster I believe. I think they have 13 pitchers active too so if they want an emergency OF because they don't want to put mcneil out there banged up they could just send a pitcher down.

For Alvarez' spot, I'd be surprised if they don't trade 1 of Dom or JDD at the deadline. Not saying he'd get that spot right away, but in August if he's had 30-60 good days in AAA I think a real promotion will likely be maneuverable even if there aren't any injuries opening up spots.
can't get rid of McCann/NIdo  
KDavies : 6/24/2022 11:11 am : link
none of the three is capable in the OF, so you have to keep a Plummer/Lee/Janikowski type.

Can't get rid of Escobar for Baty.

You could trade Dom to free up a spot for Vientos. I am fine just doing that and letting the others come up when rosters expand.
RE: RE: RE: i wonder if they time the vientos/baty/alvarez promotions together?  
KDavies : 6/24/2022 11:25 am : link
In comment 15740458 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15740451 KDavies said:


Quote:


In comment 15740435 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


would kind of suck for Mauricio to lose all his protection and be the 1 guy left behind in AA so maybe they hold on Baty a little longer until they are sure Vientos isn't going back down? But I doubt that's much of a concern because they can share 3b/DH/1B. Baty has started a few games in LF too.



Barring injury, do the Mets have the roster capacity to absorb the promotions of those three prior to roster expansion?



you mean 2? Vientos/Alvarez?

Vientos right now yes. Plummer is still on the active roster I believe. I think they have 13 pitchers active too so if they want an emergency OF because they don't want to put mcneil out there banged up they could just send a pitcher down.

For Alvarez' spot, I'd be surprised if they don't trade 1 of Dom or JDD at the deadline. Not saying he'd get that spot right away, but in August if he's had 30-60 good days in AAA I think a real promotion will likely be maneuverable even if there aren't any injuries opening up spots.


Yeah, if you keep Baty down. Alvarez or Vientos can replace Smith/Davis if traded. I guess they could stick with Marte, Canha, Nimmo in the OF and have McNeil as 4th OF. But I don't know if they want to do that.

Next year at this time, there is no way Dom and Davis are on the roster, so pretty sure one will be traded. In fact, there might not even be room for either.

C Alvarez
1B Alonso
2B McNeil
SS Lindor
3B Baty
OF Nimmo (hopefully)
Canha
Marte
DH Vientos

bench: Nido/McCann (trade one), Guillorme, Escobar, 4th OF (Plummer, Lee, Janikowski)
Anyone going to the games in Miami  
BigBlue in Keys : 6/24/2022 11:29 am : link
Today or tomorrow? I won't be there until shortly before game time tonight but I'm going to tailgate tomorrow afternoon stop by for a beer.
my lineup next year  
KDavies : 6/24/2022 11:31 am : link
1. Nimmo
2. Marte
3. Lindor
4. Alonso
5. McNeil
6. Alvarez
7. Baty
8. Vientos
9. Canha

Keep the young guys down in the order until they earn their way up. Vientos behind Baty just to break up R L R. Canha at #9 acts as a second leadoff guy. Should have a nice OBP to be on for the top of the order.

Pretty, pretty good.


RE: Anyone going to the games in Miami  
KDavies : 6/24/2022 11:33 am : link
In comment 15740485 BigBlue in Keys said:
Quote:
Today or tomorrow? I won't be there until shortly before game time tonight but I'm going to tailgate tomorrow afternoon stop by for a beer.


I was going to, but my kids touch everything and wife doesn't want them sick before vacation. July games are during heavy summer ballet season for daughter, so I may have to wait until September to head down.

Tomorrow is Jazz Chisholm bobblehead day, so be sure to get there early enough for that if you want one.
right now they have a clear top 6 every day players  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 12:12 pm : link
nimmo, marte, lindor, alonso, mcneil, canha. let's include the 2 catchers in this because even with Alvarez up I doubt it's at the expense of McCann or Nido.

so the other active roster 'slots' available are:

9. Escobar (going nowhere but should shift into more of a platoon role until he picks it up)
10. Guillorme (key platoon guy who may overtake Escobar if trends continue)
11. JDD (has taken the most DH at bats so far but underwhelmed)
12. Dom (was supposed to be a near every day player but sucked)
13. backup OF - was Jankowski, currently Plummer

so in the near term Vientos should get slot 12 or 13 and longer term he could overtake either of Escobar/JDD. I'd have called him up instead of Dom, probably expecting Dom to get traded before the deadline if Vientos 'wins' that slot in the big leagues. if he struggled you swap them back in a month. if they are intent on keeping Dom up now, I'd still call him up for Plummer because Dom can just as easily be the emergency 4th OF. Even if they don't trust him in right he can play left with Canha in CF and Nimmo in RF. If that happens it's only due to injuries so the next day they'd be able to recall Plummer or Lee or Inciarte if necessary. Plummer has been an automatic out all month so he serves no purpose. if they trade for someone at the deadline i'd imagine it will be someone who can play OF and take slot #13, with #11 JDD or #12 Dom or both getting dealt out creating a spot for at least Vientos if he plays well enough to keep it.

down the line if Alvarez is ready i think it's a little early to worry about which spot gets created for him. all it takes is 1 injury to any of the 13 and he could be the answer since they have so much positional versatility. 6 weeks from now Vientos could start struggling and they decide they want him to get more time at AAA. It's a decision that's not worth projecting right now because there are a lot of pre-deadline variables that have nothing to do with him.
.  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:13 pm : link
Simon Juan 1-2, SB (2nd in 2 days), Castro 1-2, BB, K (OPS up to 1.033!), Wilson Esterlin 3 innings 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 6 k's, Paz 0-3, Baez 3 walks (Alvarez treatment? 🤣), 2 steals 1.027 OPS on the season
Love  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:25 pm : link
McNeil but I'm with the Mets here (reportedly they have no plans to keep him long-term). He'll be a 33-year-old FA in 2 years and his body as is, is a major ??
.  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:27 pm : link
Willy Fanas only has 1 extra-base hit through his first 14 professional games
RE: Love  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 12:38 pm : link
In comment 15740533 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
McNeil but I'm with the Mets here (reportedly they have no plans to keep him long-term). He'll be a 33-year-old FA in 2 years and his body as is, is a major ??


i think i'd go the opposite way if they can get 2 extra years to lock up his 33 + 34 and maybe a 5th year vesting option (which would be his age 35 season). I think that would be a pretty team friendly looking deal (4 years 50m plus an option?).

i think he's basically Zobrist 2.0 so his positional versatility and his ability to make contact should keep him from regressing too much as he ages.

if he's unreasonable in negotiations like conforto was then let him play out the deal he's on, but 2 years from UFA and being an overrager give him some incentives towards being reasonable.
RE: Love  
GF1080 : 6/24/2022 12:39 pm : link
In comment 15740533 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
McNeil but I'm with the Mets here (reportedly they have no plans to keep him long-term). He'll be a 33-year-old FA in 2 years and his body as is, is a major ??


Maybe we could buy out some arb years for McNeil? His game shouldn't really diminish much as he gets a little older and we keep him at 2B.

I know this is tough because they're so far away but what do you see as the upside for Tillen and Baez?
RE: RE: Love  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:41 pm : link
In comment 15740546 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 15740533 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


McNeil but I'm with the Mets here (reportedly they have no plans to keep him long-term). He'll be a 33-year-old FA in 2 years and his body as is, is a major ??



Maybe we could buy out some arb years for McNeil? His game shouldn't really diminish much as he gets a little older and we keep him at 2B.

I know this is tough because they're so far away but what do you see as the upside for Tillen and Baez?


He's already arbitration-eligible. 2 years remaining and then he's a FA (he'll be 33 on the open market). I actually see him aging very poorly. He has a chronic hammy issue (left one) and "issues" with his legs that need to be monitored. Let him play out 2023 and 2024. Sure, if he's open to maybe a 2 year extension, but I'm not buying McNeil at 33 and beyond.
Dan  
Vanzetti : 6/24/2022 12:42 pm : link
Thank you for posting these threads. They really make such a big difference. Especially your comments on the players
RE: RE: Love  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:43 pm : link
In comment 15740546 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 15740533 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


McNeil but I'm with the Mets here (reportedly they have no plans to keep him long-term). He'll be a 33-year-old FA in 2 years and his body as is, is a major ??



Maybe we could buy out some arb years for McNeil? His game shouldn't really diminish much as he gets a little older and we keep him at 2B.

I know this is tough because they're so far away but what do you see as the upside for Tillen and Baez?


Both are bat first prospects with legit upside. That being said, if Baez is up before 4+ years from now it will be a major upset. Tilien.. what 3ish years? Mets have scouted MI extensively in this draft. Williams, Neto etc.
RE: Dan  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:43 pm : link
In comment 15740556 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
Thank you for posting these threads. They really make such a big difference. Especially your comments on the players


You're welcome. Any time.
Take  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:46 pm : link
The Jett at 11, do it Billy!
it just depends on price  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 12:48 pm : link
i don't know what his arb projections are the next 2 years but let's say it's 20m total over the 2 years. That may be high because Nimmo is only making $7m this year.

so 4/50m would be buying out 2 FA years at $15m each. That seems like a very tough deal for McNeil to turn down and a fair enough price for the mets to take on the gamble.
RE: it just depends on price  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:50 pm : link
In comment 15740563 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
i don't know what his arb projections are the next 2 years but let's say it's 20m total over the 2 years. That may be high because Nimmo is only making $7m this year.

so 4/50m would be buying out 2 FA years at $15m each. That seems like a very tough deal for McNeil to turn down and a fair enough price for the mets to take on the gamble.


Sure, but that's only a 2 year extension. He'd be 33 and 34. Would you really want to pay Jeff McNeil for 35-36-36, I know I wouldn't.
.  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:50 pm : link
Make it 8 k's over 4 for 17-year-old Wilson Esterlin
Dan  
GF1080 : 6/24/2022 12:52 pm : link
Yes as always thanks for this!

The more MI prospects the better that's for sure!

I stand with Eric on the McNeil thing. I think he strengthen the legs up and buy out a few years so he's secure until 35. I don't even know that it would cost an outrageous amount. Going to be interesting to follow.
RE: RE: it just depends on price  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 12:53 pm : link
In comment 15740566 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15740563 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


i don't know what his arb projections are the next 2 years but let's say it's 20m total over the 2 years. That may be high because Nimmo is only making $7m this year.

so 4/50m would be buying out 2 FA years at $15m each. That seems like a very tough deal for McNeil to turn down and a fair enough price for the mets to take on the gamble.



Sure, but that's only a 2 year extension. He'd be 33 and 34. Would you really want to pay Jeff McNeil for 35-36-36, I know I wouldn't.


I'd do 2 and a team or vesting option for the a35.

everyone has their own risk appetite but jeff mcneil's career earnings right now are $5m with nothing guaranteed from today forward except arbitration hearings.

if I were him and got offered $50m guaranteed i'd sign.
Obviously  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:53 pm : link
that meant to say 35-36-37
I'd  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:55 pm : link
extend him 2 years but beyond that, I'm good.
here's another way to look at a 4/50m for mcneil  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 12:58 pm : link
Marte just got a 4 year / 78m (19.5m AAV) as an unrestricted FA.
Canha got 2 years / 24m (12m AAV).

so guaranteeing McNeil 4 years with the back 2 pretty close to what Marte got as a UFA seems like a really fair deal for both sides, with the 2 arbitration years helping keep the overall 4 year cost and AAV down for luxury tax purposes.

a 12.5m AAV may not be that much higher than his arb costs the next 2 years.
Cole  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 12:59 pm : link
Gordon 60 day DL, bummer. I like him. MSU having a rough few days with Gordon and the Mangum news.
RE: here's another way to look at a 4/50m for mcneil  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 1:03 pm : link
In comment 15740580 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Marte just got a 4 year / 78m (19.5m AAV) as an unrestricted FA.
Canha got 2 years / 24m (12m AAV).

so guaranteeing McNeil 4 years with the back 2 pretty close to what Marte got as a UFA seems like a really fair deal for both sides, with the 2 arbitration years helping keep the overall 4 year cost and AAV down for luxury tax purposes.

a 12.5m AAV may not be that much higher than his arb costs the next 2 years.


We are on the same page, but I wouldn't give him more than 2 years so if he's looking for a 5-6 year deal I'm completely out when he's fragile with chronic issues and under contract for 2 more.
McNeil seems like the type of guy to go year to year with  
Metnut : 6/24/2022 1:08 pm : link
and you can always use the QO during his walk year if he overperforms.
RE: RE: here's another way to look at a 4/50m for mcneil  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 1:10 pm : link
In comment 15740584 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15740580 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Marte just got a 4 year / 78m (19.5m AAV) as an unrestricted FA.
Canha got 2 years / 24m (12m AAV).

so guaranteeing McNeil 4 years with the back 2 pretty close to what Marte got as a UFA seems like a really fair deal for both sides, with the 2 arbitration years helping keep the overall 4 year cost and AAV down for luxury tax purposes.

a 12.5m AAV may not be that much higher than his arb costs the next 2 years.



We are on the same page, but I wouldn't give him more than 2 years so if he's looking for a 5-6 year deal I'm completely out when he's fragile with chronic issues and under contract for 2 more.


same. a vesting option for a 5th year based on playing time would be fine with me bc they can control that. i would think mcneil would feel pretty good about getting himself an overall deal size similar to Marte being in the leverage position he's in.

but for context that would be locking him in for basically half of what they were offering Conforto last year, also probably half of what they'd be willing to spend on Nimmo who is even more injury prone and athleticism dependent in CF.

Locking in McNeil and Alonso with Lindor and Marte for the next 4+ years would be a very solid core. I'd also think about locking in an extra year for Guillorme too because that would likely be very team friendly. Phase in Vientos, Baty, Alvarez, Marucio, Ramirez around them and fill in with Canha-like FAs.
Won't  
DanMetroMan : 6/24/2022 1:13 pm : link
be a FA for quite a few years but this kid Munetaka Murakami looks like a potential MONSTER
looks like the mets are in fact looking at the top of the SP market  
Eric on Li : 6/24/2022 1:45 pm : link
Quote:
The Mets have two of the best pitchers in baseball on the mend, with Max Scherzer expected back as early as Sunday and Jacob deGrom believed likely back around the time of the All-Star Game. However, with other injury concerns in their rotation (and surely some continuing deGrom uncertainty), the Mets are among a few teams showing early interest in Reds starting pitcher Luis Castillo.

They’d presumably have interest in other starters, as well, including his teammate Tyler Mahle, who they talked about in winter, and A’s star Frankie Montas, who they’ve scouted, too. Word is, the Twins (who acquired Sonny Gray from Cincinnati) and ultra-aggressive Padres (who wouldn’t seem to have rotational needs) also are in on Castillo, who has another year before free agency and should draw interest from every contender.

Mets’ list of MLB trade deadline targets includes Reds’ Luis Castillo - ( New Window )
I think July 22 has been Degrom's target  
Vanzetti : 6/24/2022 2:28 pm : link
About two weeks ago Gary mentioned that game--home opener after all-star break--as the game where Jake could debut.

Gary did not say whether he had heard that or just looked at the calendar and figured it out himself.

But it just makes a lot of sense in terms of time frame and also in kicking off the second half the right way (unlike last year).

Also, Degrom only made 15 starts last year. If you are thinking championship, Jake will make at least 4 starts in the postseason. So you don't want him making much more than 10-12 starts during the season.

Good sign that he was throwing 98-99 against live batters the other day.

Maybe no one else  
pjcas18 : 6/24/2022 4:49 pm : link
is bothered by deGrom's announcement he plans to opt out after the season, but it rubbed me the wrong way.

Has shades of Tiki Barber feeling the need to publicly announce his retirement plans in 2006 during the season.

Keep your business private so it's not a distraction.

That said, if I'm the Mets I ride deGrom as much as possible while he's healthy because who knows a) if he'll be a Met next year or b) how long he'll be healthy

Not bothered at all...  
moze1021 : 6/24/2022 6:41 pm : link
Did he announce it unprompted or was he asked a question??

I'm pretty sure it was the latter...

If you can hear  
BigBlue in Keys : 6/24/2022 6:51 pm : link
Let's Go Mets that's us behind the dugout! LFGM
RE: If you can hear  
JayBinQueens : 6/24/2022 7:26 pm : link
In comment 15740821 BigBlue in Keys said:
Quote:
Let's Go Mets that's us behind the dugout! LFGM

Nice!

Great play by Walker to get out of the inning
Walker sure isn’t missing any bats this game. The Marlin hitters  
CooperDash : 6/24/2022 8:07 pm : link
are all over him.

And I can’t say it enough, Escobar has to go. He’s a zero at the plate and a poor defensive fielder. He’s losing games for the Mets.
Atta boy Lindor  
CooperDash : 6/24/2022 8:25 pm : link
Huge game for him.
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