For argument's sake -- say Jones takes a big step up and has a season similar to Carson Wentz did last year. 9-8, 3500 yards, 27/7, 6.9 Y/A.
I've got to be missing someone, but I can't think of a QB who didn't get his 5th year picked up, that then signed a big deal.
On one hand it's one year, on the other he'd be an UFA coming off a solid year.
That said, if his statistical performance is better than what you posted but the staff does not believe that he is what they are looking for, move on.
That said, if his statistical performance is better than what you posted but the staff does not believe that he is what they are looking for, move on.
But Jones gets a say in it too. If he leads a team to a winning season, and has an efficient season, he's got some leverage, no?
Didn't read your post..just the title.
I could see 27td's..but I think 7 int's is too low...and 3500 yards in 17 games is pretty shitty.
9-8 is a pipe dream.
If they really like him but, like many fans, would like to see a bit more before committing to a long term deal with huge guaranteed money, tag him.
It's a cop out on my part, but I think it depends on how big of a step up he takes (if any). If he goes from abysmal to mediocre, is it worth bringing him back at any price?
Daniel Jones might resolve the dilemma currently facing the NFL.
They either have 40 million QB or backup/prove it deals QB.....and nothing in between.
I would keep Jones on a team friendly deal....but that does currently exist
I think that's a pretty good guess as well. 27M is really the floor for a 2nd contract full-time starter.
Speaking hypothetically, what numbers do you need to see from Jones to give him another contract?
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You guys are missing the question -- what do you think Team Joned will want if he takes a step up?
It's a cop out on my part, but I think it depends on how big of a step up he takes (if any). If he goes from abysmal to mediocre, is it worth bringing him back at any price?
That's why I picked the Wentz comp. Winning year, efficient production.
That feels in the realm of possible. And if Jones shows he can be a winning, efficient QB, what does he think he's worth?
Jones will easily command over $20 per year and if he plays well could likely get somewhere between $25-30 as that's market rate for a QB ranked 15-25th in the league, which would fall in the stat range the OP proposed.
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type money, averaging around $27-$28M per year. Asking price higher than that with just really that one good year to base it on is difficult.
I think that's a pretty good guess as well. 27M is really the floor for a 2nd contract full-time starter.
There just aren't that many guys that make between $10M and $27M/year playing QB. You have the upper tier guys make a fortune and that isn't Daniel Jones, and then you have a lot of rookies or questionable QBs who make $10M or less. Some of those in the lower tier will find deals that are better but not sure how many.
If I am Jones and I put up a winning season and the numbers you mention, I try to get up in the high $20M/year range. Maybe settle for a little less depending upon the guarantee.
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won't be good enough for a big deal and likely indicates he is a failed starter. If the Giants commit to a big deal over that level of improvement, they won't compete for anything for at least the next 5 years.
Speaking hypothetically, what numbers do you need to see from Jones to give him another contract?
Won't speak for Producer, but I would need to see elite level production, which would result (most likely) in a playoff appearance. (like say 17 games/35-40td's/15 int's/4300 yards/65-70% completion)
What are the chances of that happening?
I would be. Daniel Jones isn't our future at QB, even with a better 2022 season. How can it not be better?
QB money is absurd.
Right now he is Mitch Trubisky, good chance Jones is signing a contract with another team for what Mitch did in
2021; "Signed a 1 year $2.5 million contract with Buffalo"
But if he has good season...
Maybe they Tag him and make him show it two years in a row?
Wentz is costing Washington about 27M per year (3yrs), so if he has numbers like Wentz, maybe he gets a contract like him too? Tag will be around 30M, so this would actually be a savings.
From his agent and his view, if Jones has a season comparable to Wentz or better and the Giants want him back as the face of the franchise. I'm not settling for anything under the FT amount. I want at least 30M/yr and not a penny less. However I'm shooting for the 40M mark where Derek Carr is. Just look at the contract list of Sportac, Min. Wage for a Vet Starting QB stops at 27M with Jimmy G. Anything below that is a rookie deal, journey man, or Tom Brady (who doesn't count). If he has a good season and the arrow is pointing up, I don't see how anyone could expect to pay less that that.
And we thought the Cowboys were crazy to give Prescott 40M!
Let's just hope he knocks it out of the park and makes it easy to spend $30-40M on him!
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You think a guy coming off a winning season and top 10 in the league in TDs will be looking for back-up money?
Jaameis Winston got twice that coming off a torn ACL, as a bridge starter. Mariota got more than that and completed 1 pass last year.
I think there is no chance in hell Jones signs 2/14.
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I don’t see him having much market if at all. Absolute max I could see is a Trubisky like deal.
You think a guy coming off a winning season and top 10 in the league in TDs will be looking for back-up money?
Jaameis Winston got twice that coming off a torn ACL, as a bridge starter. Mariota got more than that and completed 1 pass last year.
I think there is no chance in hell Jones signs 2/14.
I’m not so sure. Where is the market for Mayfield? QB markets are very fluid.
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In comment 15742558 christian said:
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You guys are missing the question -- what do you think Team Joned will want if he takes a step up?
It's a cop out on my part, but I think it depends on how big of a step up he takes (if any). If he goes from abysmal to mediocre, is it worth bringing him back at any price?
That's why I picked the Wentz comp. Winning year, efficient production.
That feels in the realm of possible. And if Jones shows he can be a winning, efficient QB, what does he think he's worth?
Wentz was certainly efficient, but not very explosive, and a winning year may result from more than just a QB not screwing up very often. Regardless, if the Giants feel he's worth bringing back, I figure they're going to have to cough up around $25 million a year at least. They can always tag him (for $29.5 million) while they work out a multi-year deal.
I’m not so sure. Where is the market for Mayfield? QB markets are very fluid.
Mayfield has 18M guaranteed on one year, and will cost something. If he was an UFA he'd very much be in the Winston market. He's also coming off a considerably less productive year than Wentz.
Jones would be better off signing a one-year deal, and get another bite at the apple, than sign 2/14M. He wouldn't entertain that if he had a winning year and was top 10 in TDs.
if we assume that to not be the case and for him to simply want to take a long term deal i think the lowest end of the range starts at the 4x118m Tannehill (29.5m aav) signed with Tennessee in march 2000 at age 32 - which was coming off just 10 starts there. he has 22 tds/6 ints. A year earlier at age 27 Wentz had extended for 4 years @ 32m AAV.
my guess is both of those comps are probably unrealistically low if we are talking multi-year extension. Cousins just extended at 35m AAV. I'd guess any clear starter level QB on open FA is going to get $35m+ AAV and age/risk will determine the % guarantee and length of the deal. the only similar example i can think of is cousins who got 3 years 84m (28m AAV), fully guaranteed, back in 2018. but that was heading into his age 30 season. had he been 26 or 27 it likely would have been a 5+ year deal.
but that's why it's likely he gets tagged whether they want to keep him or not if he puts up a good year. then whatever team he's on needs to do the dak calculation of either extending him with risk or letting him play on the tag and potentially increase the price.
Since the inception of the fifth year option with the 2011 CBA, it has never happened.
Doesn't mean it can't happen, but there is no precedent to point to as a guide for how things might play out with Jones coming back as the NYG starter in 2023.
Daniel Jones might resolve the dilemma currently facing the NFL.
They either have 40 million QB or backup/prove it deals QB.....and nothing in between.
I would keep Jones on a team friendly deal....but that does currently exist
Yep
Schoen fought and won the fight he wanted to, and that's not to exercise the 5th year option.
Jones will need more than just a good year to be considered for a tag next offseason. He will need to basically convince a GM that currently doesn't want him that he should...
Schoen fought and won the fight he wanted to, and that's not to exercise the 5th year option.
Jones will need more than just a good year to be considered for a tag next offseason. He will need to basically convince a GM that currently doesn't want him that he should...
Your source for this info?
Or are these just coincidences...
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interested in fighting that fight their first year, especially with a weak draft class that didn't have an obvious alternative solution. And a ton of other roster problems that needed attention with those two early first round picks.
Schoen fought and won the fight he wanted to, and that's not to exercise the 5th year option.
Jones will need more than just a good year to be considered for a tag next offseason. He will need to basically convince a GM that currently doesn't want him that he should...
Your source for this info?
THEY DECLINED THE ATTRACTIVE 5TH YEAR OPTION.
If Schoen felt it more reasonable than not, that Jones will prove it this year. They exercise that option.
Jones has been put on notice whether the faithful believe or not.
Jones knows it is put up or shut up time.
That shot across his bow was loud enough for the entire NFL to hear.
Everyone knows how little Daboll and Schoen believe in Jones except some fans here. Ignore what they say, focus on what they actually do.
They declined the very attractive cost controlled 5th year option.
Frankly, I wouldn't blame them. They should go for the gusto. Jones is still young.
Me? I wouldn't trust one good year as a trend. But I could easily see Team Jones and 123 Giants Way thinking agreeing even better days are ahead. So, don't rule out a big deal.
QB money is absurd.
Right now he is Mitch Trubisky, good chance Jones is signing a contract with another team for what Mitch did in
2021; "Signed a 1 year $2.5 million contract with Buffalo"
But if he has good season...
Maybe they Tag him and make him show it two years in a row?
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Tagging him would be the smart move, IMO. Make sure he can do it two years in a row before signing him long term.
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I have no idea!
QB money is absurd.
Right now he is Mitch Trubisky, good chance Jones is signing a contract with another team for what Mitch did in
2021; "Signed a 1 year $2.5 million contract with Buffalo"
But if he has good season...
Maybe they Tag him and make him show it two years in a row?
Link - ( New Window )
Tagging him would be the smart move, IMO. Make sure he can do it two years in a row before signing him long term.
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In comment 15742549 Producer said:
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won't be good enough for a big deal and likely indicates he is a failed starter. If the Giants commit to a big deal over that level of improvement, they won't compete for anything for at least the next 5 years.
Speaking hypothetically, what numbers do you need to see from Jones to give him another contract?
Won't speak for Producer, but I would need to see elite level production, which would result (most likely) in a playoff appearance. (like say 17 games/35-40td's/15 int's/4300 yards/65-70% completion)
What are the chances of that happening?
Boss.. if he puts up those numbers you mention and wins a playoff game, then that's probably a different story. But he won't.
the stats and results absolutely matter. There's a step and then there's a STEP.
5 year deal. 25, 30, 40, 40, 40
Possible out after year 2.
50 guaranteed.
Else Franchise Tag.
I am rooting for him. We will see.
If Jones had 3500, 27/10 year and the Giants went 9-8, I think they'd start with an offer in the 4/110M range, which would put him at the bottom end of veteran starters. And knowing full well they can tag him.
That's where I think it's interesting what Team Jones would counter.
To sign a multi year offer off a good season, I think Team Jones would be in the 4/140 range and be happy to angle for the tag.
I think there's no chance in heck Jones leads a winning team and is in/near top 10 in TDs and doesn't get 30M AAV in 2023.
I would cling to the fact that the option wasn't picked up and explain away his words as just coach-speak and the lack of interest in the QB market as a more a reflection of the market than his opinion on Jones. I would be disappointed that he didn't like any of the QBs in the draft, especially when some intriguing choices were available into the 3rd round, but I would applaud his patience and restraint in what I considered to be a multi-year rebuild. And, of course, I would understand his need to placate the doddering old fool that pays his salary. That's if I had your opinion of Jones, Mara, and the state of the Giants roster.
But I don't have your opinion and yet somehow, go figure, when I look at the tea leaves--along with Schoen's words and actions--they back up my opinion across the board. Given my opinion of Jones, Mara, and the Giants roster: I would've weighed the pro's and con's and ultimately decided not to pick up Jones's option (if for no other reason than his injury history); I wouldn't've pursued any of the pricy options in free agency or the trade market; and I would've emphasized offense (especially OL, WR, and TE) in the draft.
Basically I would've handled things exactly as Schoen did and yet I think it's a lot closer to 50-50 that Jones is the answer than you do (although his injury history surely complicates it) and I don't view Mara as blindly loyal to Jones. Nobody wants the Giants to win more than John Mara. Nobody. He isn't gonna let ego get in the way of forming an objective opinion and his objective opinion will be based on a helluva lot more information than either you or I. As for the talent on the roster, I definitely believe in it a lot more than you it seems, they just need to stay healthy and hopefully well-coached.
We can agree on the fact that "it's squarely on Jones to earn another contract" but I don't see that requiring a "significant reversal on the football field" (unless by that you simply mean the team's W-L record). Jones needs to improve his consistency, things need to slow down for him in the pocket, and he needs to stay healthy. There's a lot of good, young potential on the Giants and that includes Jones and Barkley. If they're as lucky as they've been unlucky with injuries, they could still be playing football on Andrew Thomas's 24th birthday!