NFT: Mets Minors 7/6/2022

In comment 15748073 Eric on Li said:

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Mauricio #50 Baty #73 Vientos #74 it looks like their list is pretty recent because PCA is #49. all of them are 50 grade so not sure the exact order matters much. Martino said last week he thinks the Mets view Vientos/Baty as very unlikely to be traded in a way Mauricio is not.

It's not recent. They have their own system where they add names as they go. He was added on 6/14.

"Six other players have moved into the 50 FV, four of whom were anticipated coming into the season and two of whom weren’t. Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and Braves center fielder Michael Harris II have both made swing changes. PCA made his change in the offseason and has had time to generate a meaningful sample showing that it has indeed unlocked meaningful pull-power to go with his incredible center field defense. He now ranks among the other excellent up-the-middle defenders poised to make at least one-note offensive impact, in the 40-50 overall range of the list. "

In comment 15748070 KDavies said:

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In comment 15748058 Eric on Li said: Quote: Quote: Martín Gallegos @MartinJGallegos Frankie Montas’ MRI showed inflammation in his shoulder but no structural damage. Received a cortisone shot, per A’s trainer Nick Paparesta. He will not make his next start in the rotation but no decision on an IL stint yet. He’s day to day. Let's a deal with Mauricio and smith gets him and Laureno, do you do that? gotta think this spooked Oakland to some degree because a season long injury basically ends his career there with 0 return. Tyler Mahle also ILed with a shoulder strain.

just saw that. i'd guess it's unlikely either of him or montas throw again before the deadline. maybe 1 "prove it" start, but honestly don't think that will change much beyond whatever the team docs think.

let's assume team docs are comfortable with the MRIs, would anyone roll the dice on Mauricio for Montas? it's a risk but i think the upside is worth it and we have the depth with scherzer/jdg getting closer to rest him for a stretch run if that's what it takes.

for degrom so this seems about right.

periodically remove and add names, they don't make a "new" list so their pre-season list looks very much like their in-season list until the following year. Some players are removed but usually it's a few additions/graduations. He explains it here-

"Updates will be paired with written analysis explaining why they’ve occurred. I’m averse to simply re-ordering names and announcing an update, as it feels clickbait-y to me and serves to blur the line between real expertise in this field and someone just tweeting a repackaged list of names. I realize I’m fighting an uphill battle in this regard (gestures at our broader culture), but I want to cling as tightly as possible to my priorities (rigorous, well-considered work that garners the approval of my peers and people in the baseball industry) while still giving readers what they crave as a natural byproduct of achieving that goal."

for a bat and bullpen vs a starter. I know relying on Degrom's health, Walker and Carrasco's inconsistency, etc... is super risky, but id like to roll the dice that our starters stay healthy and use what we have to improve the lineup and bullpen. Look i know relying on Degrom is crazy, but if him and or max are hurt in the playoffs i dont think we are winning the world series with or without Frankie. I dont know if any bat/bullpen combo is worth Mauricio, but outside of Bell/Mancini i barely hear about any other impact bats.

less high on Mauricio than some of you so it's no surprise, I would absolutely do Mauricio for Montas assuming the Mets doctors looked over the results and (like the A's doctors) didn't see structural damage. Alderson has an excellent relationship with Beane/Forst.

In comment 15748108 DanMetroMan said:

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less high on Mauricio than some of you so it's no surprise, I would absolutely do Mauricio for Montas assuming the Mets doctors looked over the results and (like the A's doctors) didn't see structural damage. Alderson has an excellent relationship with Beane/Forst.

same. I'd probably try to swap Laureno and Dom in the process too. he hits lefties and adds a real solid 4th OF'er.

and Mancini are both very good and I'd take either one but I'm not sure I'd term Mancini an "impact bat". He's 56th in wRC+/52nd in wOBA.

In comment 15748111 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 15748108 DanMetroMan said: Quote: less high on Mauricio than some of you so it's no surprise, I would absolutely do Mauricio for Montas assuming the Mets doctors looked over the results and (like the A's doctors) didn't see structural damage. Alderson has an excellent relationship with Beane/Forst. same. I'd probably try to swap Laureno and Dom in the process too. he hits lefties and adds a real solid 4th OF'er.

I like that plan of action as well.

In comment 15748113 DanMetroMan said:

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and Mancini are both very good and I'd take either one but I'm not sure I'd term Mancini an "impact bat". He's 56th in wRC+/52nd in wOBA.

Wouldn't he have close to 10 more HRs in other parks, including Citi? Presumably, a lot of those were turned to outs, so certainly that effects those numbers as well.

of the Pirates as a lefty add? Watched him against Yanks last night a bit and came away impressed.

He's having a good year on bad team despite inconsistency in past few years but assume Pirates would be willing to deal.

In comment 15748122 KDavies said:

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In comment 15748113 DanMetroMan said: Quote: and Mancini are both very good and I'd take either one but I'm not sure I'd term Mancini an "impact bat". He's 56th in wRC+/52nd in wOBA. Wouldn't he have close to 10 more HRs in other parks, including Citi? Presumably, a lot of those were turned to outs, so certainly that effects those numbers as well.

I wish it were as simple as that. But they do not take into account weather, wind gusts even etc. Jason Bay supposedly was going to be a monster at CitiField due to very similar projections.

“ The Web site hittrackeronline.com provides cutting-edge data about every home run hit in Major League contests in 2009. Included in these data are translated distances for all homers, showing how far each would go under standardized conditions of weather and circumstance.

By comparing the standard distance of each of Bay's homers to the standard dimensions of Citi Field, accounting for the part of the park to which Bay hit each and for the differences in wall height between Citi and Bay's old home (Boston's Fenway Park), we can begin to get a picture of the overall impact of his move.

This gets very involved, but in essence, it's a wash. That's right. Bay hit 15 of his round-trippers at home last season. Citi Field's much deeper dimensions (the left-field foul pole is some 25 feet farther away than is Fenway's) would suppress that total to just 10. ”

Unfortunately, Citifield represses power beyond its dimensions and the Mets have been unable to identify why. So “X homers in Citifield” based on dimensions isn’t really accurate.

“ The overall context is this: Since 2009, the Mets have posted a better home OPS than road OPS just three times. They’ve had a better slugging percentage at home than on the road just three times, none of them since 2011. The club has moved the walls in, it’s installed a humidor, and it’s thought, through different front-office regimes, about why the ballpark plays the way it does.
Citi Field is one of the things I’ve been trying to wrap my head around,” acting general manager Zack Scott said in August (before he was placed on administrative leave later in the summer while awaiting trial on a charge of driving while intoxicated). “The ballpark suppresses exit velocity, which is one of the weirder things I’ve ever seen. It’s not about wind or dimensions. It’s about the ball off the bat.”

And twitter feeds like “does it dong?” are almost exclusively taking into account ballpark dimensions/wall heights.

i think he just has the highest upside. maybe he's done, or maybe for a few months in a better lineup he'd go back to being a monster?

I like Bell but I think that pricetag is going to be higher than we want. Mancini too.

In comment 15748149 Eric on Li said:

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i think he just has the highest upside. maybe he's done, or maybe for a few months in a better lineup he'd go back to being a monster? I like Bell but I think that pricetag is going to be higher than we want. Mancini too.

Mike Elias and Sig Megdal are extremely well regarded and very smart, not saying Eppler isn’t but I’d be nervous dealing with them

don't bring back massive trade hauls. would think something jose butto'ish gets it done? who knows maybe even JDD gets that done?

adding Cruz, Laureno, and Montas for Mauricio, Butto, Dom, JDD would be a massive upgrade to the 40 man. Add a vet reliever who is mostly salary dump (Minor!) and they are in good shape.

Nelson Cruz which isn’t the end all be all but a positive. Let him return to the Mets and get a ring before he hangs it up

In comment 15748155 DanMetroMan said:

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Nelson Cruz which isn’t the end all be all but a positive. Let him return to the Mets and get a ring before he hangs it up

that statcast profile is very '95 or walk'. with about $6-7m left to pay the rest of the year i can't imagine there's going to be a long line of teams for him willing to eat all of it.

In comment 15748154 Eric on Li said:

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don't bring back massive trade hauls. would think something jose butto'ish gets it done? who knows maybe even JDD gets that done? adding Cruz, Laureno, and Montas for Mauricio, Butto, Dom, JDD would be a massive upgrade to the 40 man. Add a vet reliever who is mostly salary dump (Minor!) and they are in good shape.

You’d like to think so but the Rays did give up Joe Ryan just last year for him

needs to cut down his walks (substantially) but 5 appearances in June 23.2 innings 18 hits 29 k's 2.28 era (17!) walks but he's only 20 years old and will be all season.

that trade was an absolute stinker.

Dom has been AWFUL
Paddack needed TJ
Hosmer despite his blistering start 0.4 fWAR making 18 million per
Pagan-
Aaron Gleeman
@AaronGleeman
Emilio Pagán now has a 7.40 ERA in 41 appearances dating back to last September 1, including 14 homers allowed in 38 innings.

Pagán has the worst ERA and the worst Win Probability Added of any MLB reliever during that time, allowing one homer for every eight outs he's recorded.

Allan unlikely to pitch this year, could see a few innings in Sept. but won't rush him back to reach that timeline.

It's actually amazing, of all of the prospects @mets
traded away, very few examples of them trading away starting pitching that has developed with other teams in recent seasons #Mets

says he would have hired

Showalter
David Cone replacing Hefner
Leiter in some sort of role
Keith Hernandez as a coach? lol

In comment 15748232 DanMetroMan said:

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says he would have hired Showalter David Cone replacing Hefner Leiter in some sort of role Keith Hernandez as a coach? lol

he lost me at keeping Jeff Wilpon.

Just like I said they should

with a HR (Syracuse has 5 HR in two innings) including back to back to back HR's

In comment 15748258 pjcas18 said:

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with a HR (Syracuse has 5 HR in two innings) including back to back to back HR's

im not sure there’s been a single week since mid may that he didn’t match the Mets DH year long total of 2 homers.

Like a COVID situation with the astros

What is it he’s not doing that jdd and dom are doing to keep their spots?
https://twitter.com/psltoflushing/status/1544816104417247232?s=21&t=hxdbiBbqH_ZnL0bg4RCiZA - ( New Window )

0-5 for Alvarez

In comment 15748348 moze1021 said:

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0-5 for Alvarez

20 years old in AAA. He'll be ok