had someone suggest to me that they were running the mets who have no cash constraints they should blowup the draft pool pay the $ penalty and picks in the future.
clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than 5 and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent
Given the inherent expected value of a draft pick if the mets blow up the bonus pool and create more than 2 additional picks ( which in theory are late round picks) they could have a #1 system instantly.
for context pick 4 is about a $7m slot, pick 20 is about $3.5m and $2.8m get you pick 27 where you would expect they might choose on average over the next 2 years.
They have $14m pool so if they double that to say $28m they pay a $14m penalty but that additional draft capital could get you 4 additional picks at $3.5m ( = to the 20th pick slot ) or 2 picks at $7m ( bonus = to the 4th pick in the draft). Would you rather have 2 picks at say expected #25 in in the next 2 drafts or 5 guys now at the same slot this year? There are deals to be made with HS kids and the rest of teh league would only know it after its done.
the beefed up farm gives them allot of draft capital that 1 year out can converted to major league assets if they wish.
This does not account for time value either because a pick today at say #25 is worth more than #25 in future year - time value but acknowleding some drafts are deeper than others - this is considered a average very light on pitching so next year is likely to be a bit better but who knows?
Have not run this past anyone else in MLB but just wondering if anyone else heard that speculated. Cohen may not want to flex his checkbook as he will pay a political price for sure amoungst owners.
my hedging answer is that if they think there are signable guys they really like, they would do something like this. Maybe not to the extreme degree but if they think they are getting an extra first rounder now instead of next year and the penalty is a 1st rounder and some tax $, why not just do it? they are essentially borrowing against a future pick and fast tracking development.
but i think you only do it for players you really like (duh). not just a highly ranked guy who happens to fall.
Why 2022 MLB Draft approach is so important for Mets: A Q&A with New York’s scouting director - ( New Window )
my hedging answer is that if they think there are signable guys they really like, they would do something like this. Maybe not to the extreme degree but if they think they are getting an extra first rounder now instead of next year and the penalty is a 1st rounder and some tax $, why not just do it? they are essentially borrowing against a future pick and fast tracking development.
but i think you only do it for players you really like (duh). not just a highly ranked guy who happens to fall. Why 2022 MLB Draft approach is so important for Mets: A Q&A with New York’s scouting director - ( New Window )
the point is if those are the current rules why go 11% over and not 100%
In a league with a bunch of billionaires that are shitty people, for some reason they’ve had it out for Cohen since day one. What can they really do anyway? I tell Cohen to flex all the money he wants and let them cry into their Cheerios. It’s like the world just wants the Mets to suck forever for no apparent reason.
building a top farm system doesn't just give you good cheap players but the ability to make the trades you want for veterans before they reach free agency, and ideally to extend them more favorably.
not trade with the Mets?
I don't think the other owners really have much leverage.
I think Cohen and the Mets should use every tool at their disposal to win and sustain winning.
Rather than risk the wrath of all the other owners by upsetting the pool, why not just spend the money in Free Agency and get proven MLB talent.
Rather than risk the wrath of all the other owners by upsetting the pool, why not just spend the money in Free Agency and get proven MLB talent.
If you Look at the history of top 5 picks ($7-8m bonuses) they generate MUCH more war of the 6 years of salary control that picks at 25-30. With the penalty and additional bonus paid of say $15m per player that’s only about 2 additional War at a cost of $6-7m per additional war as market cost in free agency … it’s a inefficiently priced system that a guy like Cohen knows how to exploit he acknowledged that the draft even accounting for busts has built in profits over time given the cost control for 6 years
I am still not sure I give up 2 future drafts to do it and I am also not sure Cohen wants to pay say 100 million up front cash if the players aren’t sitting there in second round. This is also the last year you can do this effectively with some of the rules coming in place next year (player must get 75% of slot). Which I think will lead to less dropping.
I am still not sure I give up 2 future drafts to do it and I am also not sure Cohen wants to pay say 100 million up front cash if the players aren’t sitting there in second round. This is also the last year you can do this effectively with some of the rules coming in place next year (player must get 75% of slot). Which I think will lead to less dropping.
It’s not about less players dropping it’s going to the top 10 HS kids and agree to a number that others won’t like ( anything over their slot for the most part ) the kid says I’ll go to vandy etc unless you give me $8m ( or 5/6/7) and Cohen picks him even in rounds 3 or 4 he could create several more first round picks with much higher expected war than a late 20s pick in the next few years
Link - ( New Window )
Not sure I like the strategy of tanking Pick 14 to make the money work versus looking at getting savings spread out over multiple picks.
Giving Jones $9,000,000 leaves you approximately $5,652,000 for your remaining picks. Slot for picks 14 and the rest total $9,177,500. If Mets spend 61.5% of slot for all of their remaining picks you get $5,644,162.50. 14th slot multiplied by that percentage is $2,608,584 or the equivalent of 28th/29th slot money. Someone like Adam Mazur or Spencer Jones have not been talked of as 1st Rounders yet both had strong Cape seasons in 2021 and followed it up this year while offering some upside. If offered $2,600,000 would they sign to be 14th overall pick?
now that is super interesting, and something they'd have to consider. to make it really work, I think you'd probably want to go after either 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft instead of #1 because then you could still have $1-2m to get a good prospect with the other first and not fully tank it, plus a little more cushion to outbid the competition. If Baltimore really wanted Jones they could match above slot pretty easily.
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Here is another scenario without blowing up the bonus pool limit Link - ( New Window )
Look at their history of paying full slot let alone going over I don’t see it … if I’m the Mets getting the top pick is more attractive than there two picks , history tells you that
now that is super interesting, and something they'd have to consider. to make it really work, I think you'd probably want to go after either 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft instead of #1 because then you could still have $1-2m to get a good prospect with the other first and not fully tank it, plus a little more cushion to outbid the competition. If Baltimore really wanted Jones they could match above slot pretty easily.
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In comment 15750042 capone said:
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Here is another scenario without blowing up the bonus pool limit Link - ( New Window )
Look at their history of paying full slot let alone going over I don’t see it … if I’m the Mets getting the top pick is more attractive than there two picks , history tells you that
now that is super interesting, and something they'd have to consider. to make it really work, I think you'd probably want to go after either 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft instead of #1 because then you could still have $1-2m to get a good prospect with the other first and not fully tank it, plus a little more cushion to outbid the competition. If Baltimore really wanted Jones they could match above slot pretty easily.
I get it, but considering after Round 1 or 2 the difference in players who will sign for slot versus no more than 61.5% of slot isn’t that great so rather than ranking completely on 14 I would prefer the strategy that I described in my previous post.