Mike Sando
Jul 25, 2022
This is behind a paywall so no link.
50 NFL coaches and execs ranked 35 QBs and put into 5 tiers, with Aaron Rogers #1 and Geno Smith #35. Daniel Jones is in Tier 4 with an overall rank of #30.
In the context of BBI, I consider myself more pro-Daniel Jones than against, but the negative comments about him are familiar to us all, whether you like him or not:
NFL Defensive Coach:
“...holds the ball too long... leads to turnovers... I don’t think he sees the game great... I just don't see it with that kid."
NFL Head Coach:
Daniel Jones plays the game, "...heavy minded...”
NFL Offensive Coach:
“... didn’t have enough reps coming out... this will be the last season he is a starter and the last season we are talking about him."
I've gleaned the positive comments below:
NFL Defensive Coach:
"...He has talent, he obviously can run, he has an OK arm..."
NFL Head Coach:
Daniel Jones, "...would benefit from whatever creativity Daboll brings to the offense."
NFL Talent Evaluator:
“I think his hope may be going somewhere else...There is enough talent there, enough intangibles there, he has certainly proven his physical toughness... he is professional, he is tough, he is respected in the locker room because of the toughness.”
My highly subjective guess about Daniel Jones is that his game is not going to appreciably rise with the new regime, certainly not in just one season. But Daniel Jones only has one season to show what he's got once and for all. Translation: Daniel Jones (like Saquon Barkley) will be somewhere else in 2023 and then Joe Schoen & Brian Daboll can premiere their own new show next season starring a brand-new quarterback and running back.
- He can control his health by making better decisions in the run game
- He’s got to use his brain and prep to win more plays pre-snap
- When he’s not under pressure, he needs to make the downfield plays that are there
One of the misperceptions last year especially is Jones was under a lot of pressure in the pass game. This isn’t really true. The issue with the line was more the frequency they had total breakdowns. But play-to-play Jones was under pressure around the NFL average. He had plenty of opportunities to make plays.
Hopefully raising the floor on the line talent will eliminate more of the plays where things completely fall apart. But he needs to make the plays when the time is there.
I think he will be better but won't move the needle enough. It all starts with health though, nothing will matter until he stops getting banged up every other game.
Jones is what it seems like 90% of the team is. A question mark. I think it will be a really interesting season because of that. I willing to wait and see about Jones just like I am for most the rest of the team.
But a backup QB in this league per most NFL observers.
Having said that, I agree with the coaches assessment of him that he has trouble reading the field, doesn't have a tremendous arm or has the "it" factor.
The coaching staff will do their best, but ultimately they wan to live or die with their guy.
#32 out of 35 QBs.
This!!!! I'd like to see if the kids got it with his last chance. I'll root for him.
Just look at him when he has gotten hurt. It was not natural and this has shown itself true in other areas of QB play. While he has some skills I am not sure that big flaw is something he grows out of.
I am a big believer in the value of the rookie QB contract and overall team objectives. History is on the side of this when it comes to SB's.
What can complicate this is being able to address it in the draft. Timing, quality of draft, etc. are things you can't control so I do see a scenario where he gets franchised/shorter term deal based on what he shows. You still have to win as a HC to survive.
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I'm picturing, in DJ's head, a Madden game that Garrett has designed with all of the downfield threats having red "NO" circle over their heads.
It will be interesting to see if Daboll is able to quicken DJ's game up. Shurmur was the only HC able to get DJ to play at a reasonably high level, and I think Daboll is at that level of QB guru.
True. Eli would not have made it either.
That said, even though I like Jones, this is almost certainly his last year in NY.
In the current NFL the value of a young QB is, in large part, the rookie salary cap preventing you from having to pay anything close to market rate for a starting QB.
Getting a better QB than Jones THIS year with the Giants existing assets and salary cap situation was almost impossible and, given the overall roster construction, essentially irrelevant. Patrick Mahomes couldn't lead this roster to a SB.
However, when the choice next year is to either franchise him or give him a monster contract everything works against him. Even if he shows marked improvement under Daboll, and even though I like him, I have very little interest in paying him $30 million a year (or, probably, more) based on 1 good season after two bad/injury plagued ones.
It'd make much more sense to draft a replacement or trade/sign a cheaper retread vet (while waiting for a good draftable prospect) and keep building out the rest of the roster.
So, while he seems like a great kid, and I truly wish him well, I just don't see how he stays a starter with NY next year. Maybe he pulls a Tannehill or Rich Gannon somewhere down the line... but that'd be after he leaves NY.
The Simms comparison drives me up the wall. And I also don’t think people really remember what happened with Simms.
He was in his 6th NFL season before he was a winning QB. Is that what people want for Jones?
So it is possible to recognize Jones hasn't had a great situation and still think he's not a good QB. BBI told me that's impossible!
Jones is what it seems like 90% of the team is. A question mark. I think it will be a really interesting season because of that. I willing to wait and see about Jones just like I am for most the rest of the team.
I agree Bill.
He definitely has the physical attributes.
- He can control his health by making better decisions in the run game
- He’s got to use his brain and prep to win more plays pre-snap
- When he’s not under pressure, he needs to make the downfield plays that are there
One of the misperceptions last year especially is Jones was under a lot of pressure in the pass game. This isn’t really true. The issue with the line was more the frequency they had total breakdowns. But play-to-play Jones was under pressure around the NFL average. He had plenty of opportunities to make plays.
Hopefully raising the floor on the line talent will eliminate more of the plays where things completely fall apart. But he needs to make the plays when the time is there.
I think that is a very reasonable take Christian. I feel that coaching and scheme played a big part in the utter awfulness of the whole offense. Coupled with untimely injuries to the WRs. I think this new coaching and scheme if it fits DJ could be the biggest positive force in him having a good year. I probably put too much emphasis on his success under Shurmur, but I always felt with seasoning and cleaning up the fumbles he could be successful. And honestly, I felt like the first Dallas game he and Toney were finally playing to their potential. And to your point I love his toughness in trying to win but he really has to stop putting himself in harms way on every run. At this point I'm still hopeful. Yes I'm still hopeful and somewhat optimistic, but I have no illusions about it... if he fails we move on to the next.
NFL teams move on from players for a variety of reasons, including poor play, can't stay on the field, not worth the contract, major off-field issues, etc.
NFL teams don't dump talented players simply because fans on the internet say mean things about him.
The idea that Parcells would have dumped Simms or TC would have cut/traded Eli because fans on the internet didn't like those players before they had success, is absolutely laughable.
And if you plopped 1985 Phil Simms into the 2022 NFL, he would struggle to catch on to any team.
Let's say Jones has this stat line at the end of the year: 4000 yards, 55.6% completion, 23 TDs, 22 interception.
Is that enough to get him extended. I sure as hell don't think so. That is Phil Simms stat line from his probowl 1985 season, extrapolated to 17 games. That is literally Simms at his best.
Both the game and business of football has changed dramatically in 40 years. Let's stop pretending it hasn't.
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He would have been run out of town during his first 3 injury filled years.
And if you plopped 1985 Phil Simms into the 2022 NFL, he would struggle to catch on to any team.
Let's say Jones has this stat line at the end of the year: 4000 yards, 55.6% completion, 23 TDs, 22 interception.
Is that enough to get him extended. I sure as hell don't think so. That is Phil Simms stat line from his probowl 1985 season, extrapolated to 17 games. That is literally Simms at his best.
Both the game and business of football has changed dramatically in 40 years. Let's stop pretending it hasn't.
You acknowledge that the game has changed dramatically yet you assume Simms stats wouldn't be any better, even if he played in an era where the rules now favor offenses? That makes no sense.
And you still haven't given me an example of an NFL player on ANY team that has been run out of town due to fans on the internet not being happy with his play.
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In comment 15762566 David B. said:
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He would have been run out of town during his first 3 injury filled years.
And if you plopped 1985 Phil Simms into the 2022 NFL, he would struggle to catch on to any team.
Let's say Jones has this stat line at the end of the year: 4000 yards, 55.6% completion, 23 TDs, 22 interception.
Is that enough to get him extended. I sure as hell don't think so. That is Phil Simms stat line from his probowl 1985 season, extrapolated to 17 games. That is literally Simms at his best.
Both the game and business of football has changed dramatically in 40 years. Let's stop pretending it hasn't.
You acknowledge that the game has changed dramatically yet you assume Simms stats wouldn't be any better, even if he played in an era where the rules now favor offenses? That makes no sense.
And you still haven't given me an example of an NFL player on ANY team that has been run out of town due to fans on the internet not being happy with his play.
I think you may have misunderstood me. My point is that if you want to directly compare Phil Simms to DJ, it's a ridiculous exercise. If the stats can't be compared directly, why can directly compare situations (QBs that struggled mightily in their first few years). If the OP of the Simms comment wants to directly compare Simms to Jones, then fine, let's do it with stats too. I was just trying to point out how much the league has changed.
And I agree with your point that fans don't run players out. It's team management, informed by the player's produxtion
Every other attribute a QB possesses or lacks is an overstatement. You aint getting drafted if you can't throw the ball threw a pane of glass and you aint getting drafted if you can't throw a pretty accurate ball in shorts.
Much like RBs, it's how well you see the game and how fast you process it. If you can't process faster than the defense, you're toast.
Simms was injured and inconsistent as a young player. Jones is both of those things, plus he has no natural ability to read the field and know what to do with the ball. He needs a guy to come open and show his numbers before the ball comes out. That is main problem with him and he has made no progress on those flaws in his time in the league.
Jones has a bunch of physical tools and yes he is a hard worker, great teammate and all the other things you want in a QB. He just has no feel for the game at all. He didn't in college and he doesn't in the NFL.
Daboll can get the most out of Jones by designing an offense where the ball comes out of his hands quickly with defined, pre-snap reads. I think he will show some improvement this year, but he is just not an NFL level QB between the ears so he will always be limited in what you can ask him to do.
Comparing Jones to Simms would be like comparing Simms to a QB from the late 1930s. It's complete insanity
Does this happen in other sports? Are Knicks fans like "you guys would've rode Walt Frazier out of town?
Simms was injured and inconsistent as a young player. Jones is both of those things, plus he has no natural ability to read the field and know what to do with the ball. He needs a guy to come open and show his numbers before the ball comes out. That is main problem with him and he has made no progress on those flaws in his time in the league.
Jones has a bunch of physical tools and yes he is a hard worker, great teammate and all the other things you want in a QB. He just has no feel for the game at all. He didn't in college and he doesn't in the NFL.
Daboll can get the most out of Jones by designing an offense where the ball comes out of his hands quickly with defined, pre-snap reads. I think he will show some improvement this year, but he is just not an NFL level QB between the ears so he will always be limited in what you can ask him to do.
Greg Cosell has recently disagreed with your analysis on Jones. The thing he dinged him for was "subtle movement in the pocket". Not for nothing but I value his assessment higher than I value yours (or any other BBI poster).
You cant argue with the ranking, it hasnt been a great showing but he has ad good games when he has play makers. the season will come down to his health and that of his WRs. If they play 14 games as a complete unit I think he will have a good season. If we are playing guys like David Sills as starters it will be another long season no matter who is QB. Tyrod Taylor is not the answer either, he is a quality backup and low end starter with no upside.
Jones had 24 TDs in 12 games his rookie year so he has the ability to put up points. The O line looks to be NFL quality for the first time in a decade, his supporting cast is improved and hopefully healthy. It's now up to him to show he can process what he sees at NFL level speed. Time to bring the A game.
The internet isn't the issue. The salary cap is.
Having a QB on his rookie contract is a massive advantage if/when that QB is playing well and represents a huge bargain. The Giants have basically already squandered that opportunity with DJ. Conversely, QB salary cap values for second contracts and beyond are astronomical and can choke a roster out entirely if the QB underperforms.
You cannot take a chance on a second contract for a QB if they have not proven themselves during their first contract, unless it comes at an enormous discount, which rarely if ever happens.
It has nothing to do with the internet era. And the Simms comparisons are like an IQ test on BBI. Go look at what Simms signed for in 1983 and 1984 and compare it to the average NFL salary for those years. QBs still made more than everyone else back then, but it was more like 2-3x what the average NFL player made, not 10-15x.
But hey, I'm sure the whole "internet era" probably thing sounded like a really clever way to defend DJ in your head, so there's that.
Greg Cosell has recently disagreed with your analysis on Jones. The thing he dinged him for was "subtle movement in the pocket". Not for nothing but I value his assessment higher than I value yours (or any other BBI poster).
And the guys paid by NFL teams also think he has poor pocket presence and doesn’t see the field well, as does our own Sy, also paid by NFL teams. I like Cosell a lot, but I’ll take the guys the NFL thinks are good enough to pay.
I think we can all agree that Jones was dealt a bad hand, but he hasn’t done much to help himself either. As I said earlier, I’m looking forward to seeing the impact Daboll has on his game, but there are no more excuses.
That's like saying...'Well, if JFK lived in this era & ran president in 2024 with his womanizing, the public wouldn't know about it.' GTFO.
I'd have put him around 23-24 oof.
No he wouldn't. In year 3 Simms was league-average.
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They are nothing alike other than being first round QBs. The game is very different now, the league is very different now, and Simms' main problem was health. Jones' main problem is that he simply isn't very good at playing QB.
The Simms comparison drives me up the wall. And I also don’t think people really remember what happened with Simms.
He was in his 6th NFL season before he was a winning QB. Is that what people want for Jones?
We can cherry=pick stats all we want. On the flip-side 4 of his 1st 8 years he had winning records (not counting year "as winning" when he was 2-0). And 1 of the years he was 5-5.
So yeah I would take that. Give us 1st 5 of 8 years winning records and eventual Super Bowl MVP while recognizing that Parcells was a moron when he chose Brunner over Simms one year?