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NFT: Mets Minors 8/4/2022

DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:03 am
AAA
Alvarez 1-4, HR, K, passed ball
Vientos was in the lineup but didn't play. No indication he was called up, possibly didn't feel well?
Otanez 1 inning 0 hits 0 runs 1 walk 0 k's


AA
Baty 1-4, BB, 2 errors
Mauricio 2-5, K, error (5/11 in August)
Meyer 1-5
Hartwig 1 inning 1 hit 0 er 1 walk 2 k's ( It wasn't his cleanest outing (hit and a walk) but Grant Hartwig struck out 2 lowering his era to 1.89 on the season over 27 appearances and his era since signing with the Mets as a UDFA now stands at 2.17)

A+
Ramirez 0-4, 4 k's
Consuegra 0-4, K
Hardy 1 inning 0 hits 0 runs 1 walk 1 k (nice breakout season)


A
Lugo 1-3, BB, 2's (sleeper)
Tilien 1-3, BB, 2 k's
Paz 1-1 3b (has gone from the DSL to A ball in one season. A physical specimen, one concern, for a guy who is considered a plus athlete, they have him 1b/DH quite often.)
ODLS 1-4 2 steals (53)
Ziegler (first appearance in 6 weeks due to biceps tendonitis) 0.2 innings 0 runs 3 walks 1 k (pulled due due to pitch count)
Diaz 6 innings 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 6 k's (My performer of the day)
even with the slow start  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 9:16 am : link
Alvarez has an .822 OPS in AAA. 18 games, 4 HR, 4 doubles, 15 walks. Average up to .197
ODLS  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:25 am : link
really should be promoted.

He's about to be 23 years old, he's played 122 games in St. Lucie (38 last season), and the concerns about his swing vs. better pitching (Longenhagen) will only be nullified (or deemed accurate) once he... faces better pitching
Kevin Villavicencio  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:28 am : link
isn't "exciting" tools wise, but keep an eye on him as a potential "Ruben Tejada" esque prospect in the next 2-3 years. Strong bat-to-ball skills, considered "heady" and he knows where to be.
Posted this in the gameday thread but worth reposting..  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 9:28 am : link
I was feeling depressed after seeing Soto's first AB with SD...

But then went to Twitter and saw the video of the Alvarez HR and..

well.. just look for yourself...
Alvarez - ( New Window )
DMM  
Drewcon40 : 8/4/2022 9:30 am : link
Thanks for these updates as always - I really enjoy and lean on your write ups (especially on the draft picks).

What is the story with the catcher the Mets obtained from the Pirates, Michael Perez? Is he someone that could contribute on the MLB roster if they don't want to call up Alvarez?
JBJ DFAed by Red Sox  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 9:31 am : link
Mets have no room, but might be interesting on a minor league deal. Would likely be an upgrade on the AAA OF options
Hopefully  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:31 am : link
today is the day some of 2022 draft picks begin play. Zach Neto (for example) has already played 3 games in the Angels system.
RE: DMM  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:33 am : link
In comment 15771545 Drewcon40 said:
Quote:
Thanks for these updates as always - I really enjoy and lean on your write ups (especially on the draft picks).

What is the story with the catcher the Mets obtained from the Pirates, Michael Perez? Is he someone that could contribute on the MLB roster if they don't want to call up Alvarez?


Perez is glove only, can't hit at all (though he remarkably had a 3 homer game this season). He's about to be 30, 1.75 career hitter (.530 OPS) over 193 games. He's worse than McCann/Nido offensively.
RE: ODLS  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:41 am : link
In comment 15771541 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
really should be promoted.

He's about to be 23 years old, he's played 122 games in St. Lucie (38 last season), and the concerns about his swing vs. better pitching (Longenhagen) will only be nullified (or deemed accurate) once he... faces better pitching


Just checked, he’s 9 months older than the league average so yeah, at this point it should be sink or swim time considering he’s not even considered a “top” talent
RE: JBJ DFAed by Red Sox  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:43 am : link
In comment 15771547 KDavies said:
Quote:
Mets have no room, but might be interesting on a minor league deal. Would likely be an upgrade on the AAA OF options


Wouldn’t be surprised to see him retire. OPS+ of 44 over his last 2 seasons
I've been thinking about this  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 9:48 am : link
specifically the people disappointed in the deadline transactions.

The Nationals have now "lost" via various methods from their WS team:
Bryce Harper
Juan Soto
Max Scherzer
Trea Turner
Anthony Rendon

Maybe more and I'm not counting non-core players who they just let walk like Matt Adams.

Is that worth a WS win, knowing now they've got a good shot at hitting rock bottom and in an era where MLB now has a draft lottery?

Yes is ok. Just curious if there is a point where anyone would pass on a WS in favor of building a roster that is more sustainable in the hopes of winning multiple titles.

I tend to lean to the side of get the WS win, at all costs, but curious if that's what most people think. The Nationals (and before them the Marlins might be the best other example) show the cost.
Bryce Harper was on the Phillies  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 9:52 am : link
when the Nationals won the WS
RE: Bryce Harper was on the Phillies  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 9:55 am : link
In comment 15771563 KDavies said:
Quote:
when the Nationals won the WS


you're right. still I'll include him, since he walked for nothing and it's likely part of the same vision that prevented them from extending him.
The Nats are such an odd case....  
Italianju : 8/4/2022 9:55 am : link
i mean even the wilpons would have been hard pressed to let Harper walk and trade away two guys like Turner/Soto cause you wouldnt pay them. Rendon was tricky cause they had to choose between him and strasburg, honestly neither has been worth anything near what they got.

Good to know that with Cohen around the Mets will never have a scenario like this.
the Mets won't have to take the Nationals approach  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 9:59 am : link
as Cohen has money and a commitment to win.

I don't think many have an issue for not getting a Soto. Reality is, Mets likely can't beat the Padres package. Abrams and Gore are former top prospects that have gotten their feet wet at the MLB level. Hassell and Wood are excellent prospects.

The issue is the Mets traded a useable reliever at the deadline, while only getting one back (though they did get May back from injury). Quite frankly, Givens may be pitching the same innings that Holderman was. So that may be close to a wash.

Very happy with what they did re Vogelbach (though would have rather given up minor leaguers), Ruf (although they overpaid), and Naquin. But they are taking a major gamble in trusting this bullpen.

It's a false dichotomy to ask whether the Mets should have gone "all-in" vs. what they did. They could have made 1-2 more bullpen moves that wouldn't come close to going "all-in."
RE: even with the slow start  
nyfootballfan : 8/4/2022 10:01 am : link
In comment 15771540 KDavies said:
Quote:
Alvarez has an .822 OPS in AAA. 18 games, 4 HR, 4 doubles, 15 walks. Average up to .197


saw an insta post where he launched it out of the whole yard.
RE: the Mets won't have to take the Nationals approach  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:08 am : link
In comment 15771572 KDavies said:
Quote:
as Cohen has money and a commitment to win.

I don't think many have an issue for not getting a Soto. Reality is, Mets likely can't beat the Padres package. Abrams and Gore are former top prospects that have gotten their feet wet at the MLB level. Hassell and Wood are excellent prospects.

The issue is the Mets traded a useable reliever at the deadline, while only getting one back (though they did get May back from injury). Quite frankly, Givens may be pitching the same innings that Holderman was. So that may be close to a wash.

Very happy with what they did re Vogelbach (though would have rather given up minor leaguers), Ruf (although they overpaid), and Naquin. But they are taking a major gamble in trusting this bullpen.

It's a false dichotomy to ask whether the Mets should have gone "all-in" vs. what they did. They could have made 1-2 more bullpen moves that wouldn't come close to going "all-in."


Couldn’t have said it better myself. Agree with every word
I will be interested to see what they do with the guys who are due  
Ten Ton Hammer : 8/4/2022 10:10 am : link
for extensions.

There is no reason Nimmo should not be on this team next year, or Diaz, frankly.
RE: I will be interested to see what they do with the guys who are due  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:16 am : link
In comment 15771579 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
for extensions.

There is no reason Nimmo should not be on this team next year, or Diaz, frankly.


Agree on both, obviously Boras is a wild card but Diaz deserves the highest AAV ever for a closer, that's just the way the market works.
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:20 am : link
@mets 10th round pick @Zebatron3000 has been assigned to the FCL Mets. In addition, arguably the DSL Mets top performer Dyron Campos has been promoted to the FCL Mets, joining him will be SS Luis Castillo (no relation) and RHP Candido Cuevas #Mets
Nimmo and Diaz are almost must re-signs for the Mets  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 10:30 am : link
Nimmo's market value will be an interesting one to see. 10 HRs and no SBs this year, so he doesn't have the traditionally sexy stats. Yet he is an incredibly valuable player due to his ability to get on base at the top of the order, as well as his defense. Analytics would value him quite high. He actually has a higher WAR than Alonso thus far (3.2 vs. 3.1)
RE: the Mets won't have to take the Nationals approach  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:34 am : link
In comment 15771572 KDavies said:
Quote:
as Cohen has money and a commitment to win.

I don't think many have an issue for not getting a Soto. Reality is, Mets likely can't beat the Padres package. Abrams and Gore are former top prospects that have gotten their feet wet at the MLB level. Hassell and Wood are excellent prospects.

The issue is the Mets traded a useable reliever at the deadline, while only getting one back (though they did get May back from injury). Quite frankly, Givens may be pitching the same innings that Holderman was. So that may be close to a wash.

Very happy with what they did re Vogelbach (though would have rather given up minor leaguers), Ruf (although they overpaid), and Naquin. But they are taking a major gamble in trusting this bullpen.

It's a false dichotomy to ask whether the Mets should have gone "all-in" vs. what they did. They could have made 1-2 more bullpen moves that wouldn't come close to going "all-in."


I didn't ask if they should have gone all-in vs what they did.

I asked if you would be willing to sell the future for a World Series title.

You can say the Mets won't be in this situation because of Cohen's money and fandom, but until he is in that situation it's impossible to say with certainty - and it's more a theoretical question.

Yeah u need to resign both...  
Italianju : 8/4/2022 10:36 am : link
There are just not a lot of CF options. And despite us being told that at best he would be a serviceable CF he has been damn good. But i still think a marte type deal is fair. The OBP is great, but as stated he doesnt hit HR and he doesnt steal bases so you are really paying for the OBP and the fact that he plays a premium defensive position. But much more then 4/80 and im honestly not sure the value is there. And i dont think that many teams would be willing to pay him more then that.
He's  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:38 am : link
going to get 5 years. Marte got 4 at 33, Castellanos got 5 at 30. I see no realistic scenario where Nimmo has to settle for 4 years.
the Mets haven't won a World Series since 1986  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 10:40 am : link
I was 5, so I don't remember any of it. Most Mets fans would do most anything to get a World Series victory. But nothing they could do guarantees that. Building a consistent playoff contender is the goal.
I like Nimmo  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:42 am : link
but IMO it depends on how confident the Mets are in his health how much I'd be willing to pay him.

he was injured throughout his 20's, it's probably not common for players like him to get healthier in their 30's.

I don't consider him a no-brainer must sign like some of you.

He is also quietly having his worst season of his career. Not a terrible season, but statistically worse than his career numbers (especially with OBP which is where much of his offensive value comes)
RE: the Mets haven't won a World Series since 1986  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:42 am : link
In comment 15771604 KDavies said:
Quote:
I was 5, so I don't remember any of it. Most Mets fans would do most anything to get a World Series victory. But nothing they could do guarantees that. Building a consistent playoff contender is the goal.


Exact same boat. But both can be true. "Don't trade the top names" but also... could have/should have done more, even if it were multiple Givens level BP additions hoping one exceeded expectations.
RE: the Mets haven't won a World Series since 1986  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 10:43 am : link
In comment 15771604 KDavies said:
Quote:
I was 5, so I don't remember any of it. Most Mets fans would do most anything to get a World Series victory. But nothing they could do guarantees that. Building a consistent playoff contender is the goal.


Yep. The best chance to win a World Series is to build a team that consistently contends. The Mets in my lifetime seem to put a contender together once or twice a decade and go back to mediocrity or worse. Maybe they could’ve won in 1999, 2000, 2007 or 2015 (each of those teams was certainly good enough) if they caught a few more breaks, but would’ve been better to make it to the dance more often.
RE: I like Nimmo  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:43 am : link
In comment 15771605 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but IMO it depends on how confident the Mets are in his health how much I'd be willing to pay him.

he was injured throughout his 20's, it's probably not common for players like him to get healthier in their 30's.

I don't consider him a no-brainer must sign like some of you.

He is also quietly having his worst season of his career. Not a terrible season, but statistically worse than his career numbers (especially with OBP which is where much of his offensive value comes)


PJ,
Last season 92 games 3.3 fWAR, this season 96 games 3.3 fWAR. If it's his "worst season" it's marginal. He's on pace for a 4.5-5 fWAR season, he's been their second best player behind Lindor by fWAR
His  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:48 am : link
rankings at the position

fWAR tied for 3rd with Byron Buxton (behind Judge and Trout)
wRC+

wRC+ 5th (behind Judge, Trout, Buxton, Julio Rodriguez)

OBP 3rd behind Judge and Trout

OAA 3rd behind Straw and Julio Rodriguez

DRS 9th
Any way we can look at comps  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 10:48 am : link
for players signed to term deals in their 30s who draw most of their WAR from defensive value in CF? Seems like a risky move.

Still think we should sign him. With Cohen, we need to bring back our best players even if the deals aren’t likely to end well. I have a feeling with the QO, we’ll find the market for Nimmo quite reasonable.
His fWAR  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:49 am : link
is what it is because of his DEF rating, which I'm not a huge believer in.

His offensive stats are down from last year across the board.

His OBP is down 50 points from last year. For your leadoff hitter that is a big deal.

If you want to just look at his fWAR and give him a contract go ahead. I would choose to look at more tangible results/expectations.
He's  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:50 am : link
also 3rd in average (Judge/Trout)

2nd in runs (Judge)

9th in slugging

3rd best K% (Straw/Mullins)

He's a top 5 CF in baseball by any reasonable measure
RE: His fWAR  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:51 am : link
In comment 15771615 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
is what it is because of his DEF rating, which I'm not a huge believer in.

His offensive stats are down from last year across the board.

His OBP is down 50 points from last year. For your leadoff hitter that is a big deal.

If you want to just look at his fWAR and give him a contract go ahead. I would choose to look at more tangible results/expectations.


PJ,
I've posted his rankings vs. other CF's, he's near the top of the league in multiple key categories even if you ignore defense
And  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:52 am : link
while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.
RE: And  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 10:55 am : link
In comment 15771620 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.


You can love what Nimmo is doing this year and question giving him 6years/$175M. I think the Mets should bring him back, but it’s worth taking a look at how players like him project through their 30s.
Even  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:55 am : link
going back to last year... he's 5th in DRS, 5th in OAA, 4th best defensive CF in baseball over the past 2 seasons using fangraphs overall defensive rating as well behind Straw, Taylor and Bader. All 3 of those guys are considered "elite" defensive CFers.
RE: RE: And  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:56 am : link
In comment 15771622 Metnut said:
Quote:
In comment 15771620 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.



You can love what Nimmo is doing this year and question giving him 6years/$175M. I think the Mets should bring him back, but it’s worth taking a look at how players like him project through their 30s.


Where did 6 for 175 come from? Not from me. Castellanos got 5 years 100. I expect Nimmo to get something in the neighborhood of 5 for 110-120
RE: And  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:57 am : link
In comment 15771620 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.


Ok, what did i say that was wrong?

A big part of ability is availability.

I will reiterate what I said and I stand by it:

"I like Nimmo but IMO it depends on how confident the Mets are in his health how much I'd be willing to pay him.

he was injured throughout his 20's, it's probably not common for players like him to get healthier in their 30's.

I don't consider him a no-brainer must sign like some of you."
RE: RE: RE: And  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:57 am : link
In comment 15771624 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15771622 Metnut said:


Quote:


In comment 15771620 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.



You can love what Nimmo is doing this year and question giving him 6years/$175M. I think the Mets should bring him back, but it’s worth taking a look at how players like him project through their 30s.



Where did 6 for 175 come from? Not from me. Castellanos got 5 years 100. I expect Nimmo to get something in the neighborhood of 5 for 110-120


that does not sound like top 5 OFer in the game numbers to me.
5yr/$110M and I’d sign it now  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 10:59 am : link
I suspect that’s what his deal comes to, but it’s possible his market blows up, especially if he finishes strong and has a big postseason. Dan, you comped him to Judge and Buxton above and Boras will have the same data.
Brandon  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:59 am : link
Nimmo is getting nowhere near 29.1 per season, that's such an outlandish number it's not even worth considering. There are 2 CF in baseball who make that much. Mike Trout and George Springer. Nobody else even makes 20 (Judge obviously will). 6 years 175 would make Brandon Nimmo the 16th highest paid player in baseball by AAV.
Anyway, I’ll bow out of this.  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 11:00 am : link
Nimmo is the man and I hope we keep him. 5 years and $20-$22M AAV would be my hope. Would get dicey if term and AAV go much beyond that.
?  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:00 am : link
Top 5 OF? Who said that? Top 5 CF, and yeah it does. The top 5 paid CF's in baseball this season make

37.1 Mike Trout
29.6 George Springer
19 million Aaron Judge
17 Cody Bellinger
12.3 million Kevin Kiermier
i think 5 for 110 is prolly where he ends up...  
Italianju : 8/4/2022 11:02 am : link
and i can live with it. It can easily be a bad deal though, i mean a guy who has had issues staying on the field in his 20's will now be in his 30's. But part of the reason why he is so highly ranked amongst CF is because there arent a lot of good ones. Which will increase his value to other teams. Especially with how good his defense has been, i mean watching him everyday i feel like he should be considered for the damn GG.
Nimmo's fangraphs  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 11:04 am : link
value is over $26M today, almost $27M. And if he hits the fWAR number you cited his fangraphs value would probably be around $30M

The Mets  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:06 am : link
also do not have any realistic internal options (yeah they can move Marte at 34, a guy who has already shown signs of needing rest/dinged in RF) and sign a corner here are the top OF FA's

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
Joey Gallo, New York Yankees
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners
Michael Brantley, Houston Astros

Enrique Hernandez, Boston Red Sox

Those are the BEST FA OF's for this season
RE: Nimmo's fangraphs  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:10 am : link
In comment 15771637 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
value is over $26M today, almost $27M. And if he hits the fWAR number you cited his fangraphs value would probably be around $30M


#1 That implies he's certainly a top level player
#2 Players don't get their "fangraphs value". Jose Ramirez has been worth 90 million dollars since opening day last season and over 40 million now 5 times. Lindor was "worth" 34 million last season and "everybody" was disappointed with his season (including himself). Lindor has been "worth" 40+ million 5 times in his career, did anybody expect him to get 40+ million per season?
Aaron Judge  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:11 am : link
2022 "worth" 53.5 million, 2021 43 million. Does anybody expect Judge to get 50 million per?
The Mets felt top prospects were too much to trade for rentals  
Snablats : 8/4/2022 11:12 am : link
but they had nothing to trade behind those top prospects

So they are hoping they have enough to win it all this season while burning another year off the careers of Scherzer and deGrom - then hoping they can sign deGrom again

Anyway...  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:14 am : link
I saw that Max Scherzer once said this in an interview

"Hidden talent: "My true hidden talent is being able to fart with my hands. I've always been able to do it. I'll even do it in the dugout. There was one spring training where I did it to Dontrelle Willis all the time. He thought I was really farting on him the whole spring, and finally he got sick of it. So he sat on me one day and farted on me. I had to be like, time out, Dontrelle; like, this was a joke the whole spring."

So I put it on twitter and Dontrelle Willis actually confirmed the story lol


Dontrelle Willis
@DTrainMLB
This is very true story 🤣🤣🤣🤣
RE: RE: Nimmo's fangraphs  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 11:17 am : link
In comment 15771645 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15771637 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


value is over $26M today, almost $27M. And if he hits the fWAR number you cited his fangraphs value would probably be around $30M




#1 That implies he's certainly a top level player
#2 Players don't get their "fangraphs value". Jose Ramirez has been worth 90 million dollars since opening day last season and over 40 million now 5 times. Lindor was "worth" 34 million last season and "everybody" was disappointed with his season (including himself). Lindor has been "worth" 40+ million 5 times in his career, did anybody expect him to get 40+ million per season?


lol, we're done here. it's sort of disingenuous to cite the value of players under contract since they are obviously under contract, but if I'm not mistaken you cited Soto's fangraphs value when predicting his next contract.

I am not debating this any more.

Nimmo's injury history would give me some pause with how much I spent re-signing him. I don't even see how that's controversial. He's played over 100 games once in his 7 year career (before this year, a contract year).

And almost all his offensive numbers are down this year.

nothing I said is irrefutable in any way.
RE: The Mets felt top prospects were too much to trade for rentals  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:17 am : link
In comment 15771648 Snablats said:
Quote:
but they had nothing to trade behind those top prospects

So they are hoping they have enough to win it all this season while burning another year off the careers of Scherzer and deGrom - then hoping they can sign deGrom again


Sadly, they traded off much of the underbelly in the seasons that preceded Cohen taking over. PCA was the move that everybody talks about being bad, but they dealt off Endy Rodriguez (for example), was seen as a bad move even at the time, and he'd now be a top 6-7 prospect in the system (just as an example). They were too free and easy because they had owners who were getting out of Dodge
RE: RE: RE: Nimmo's fangraphs  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:19 am : link
In comment 15771657 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15771645 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 15771637 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


value is over $26M today, almost $27M. And if he hits the fWAR number you cited his fangraphs value would probably be around $30M




#1 That implies he's certainly a top level player
#2 Players don't get their "fangraphs value". Jose Ramirez has been worth 90 million dollars since opening day last season and over 40 million now 5 times. Lindor was "worth" 34 million last season and "everybody" was disappointed with his season (including himself). Lindor has been "worth" 40+ million 5 times in his career, did anybody expect him to get 40+ million per season?



lol, we're done here. it's sort of disingenuous to cite the value of players under contract since they are obviously under contract, but if I'm not mistaken you cited Soto's fangraphs value when predicting his next contract.

I am not debating this any more.

Nimmo's injury history would give me some pause with how much I spent re-signing him. I don't even see how that's controversial. He's played over 100 games once in his 7 year career (before this year, a contract year).

And almost all his offensive numbers are down this year.

nothing I said is irrefutable in any way.


When did I cite Soto's value on his next contract? You must be thinking of somebody else. I've never even discussed Juan Soto's projected contract on here outside of saying he will get more years than Ohtani (which he will).
They  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:21 am : link
claim Soto turned down 440 million and wants 500 million, he'll probably get it, but I've never discussed what he may or may not get on here, I have no clue beyond what he turned down.
8  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:29 am : link
minor leaguers have 50+ steals this season, the last time that happened was 2015, there is more than a month left in the season... are we about to see a shift towards more running, or is this a fluke?
Haven't  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:38 am : link
seen this verified but re: Vientos

"M Gamble
@the6thgamble
Replying to
@WexlerRules
Supposedly covid related"
Seidler  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:39 am : link
responding to John Harper's report that Matt Allan was the only SP prospect that was appealing as Brown to the Cubs

"Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
1m
I think given Ziegler’s recent IL stint this may be right, and I say that as someone who thought Brown was getting a little too much hype in Phillies adjacent circles"
None  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:47 am : link
Of the 2022 draftees appeared in the continuation of a suspended game this morning. Second game at noon.
Contracts are about comps more than anything else  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 11:48 am : link
The more recent and similar the closer they will be.

Buxton, Marte, and even Cain come to mind with some similarities. AJ pollock too. On phone so without looking them each up I’m pretty sure all were 4-5 years and in the 20m Aav range.

Springer is the biggest CF contract in the last few years and he’d be a best case scenario comp for nimmo that boras is probably asking for but I doubt anyone would do bc springers track record was both more reliable and more productive so imo anyone giving nimmo that much would be over aggressive. All it takes is 1 team to go big though and sometimes boras finds that team. But if nimmo is reasonable and wants to be back I think it will be in that 4-5 year 20-24m aav range.
“Not sure, they haven’t said anything yet”  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:53 am : link
On Vientos per a writer. COVID related seems at least plausible given the late pull and lack of information.
RE: Contracts are about comps more than anything else  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:57 am : link
In comment 15771692 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
The more recent and similar the closer they will be.

Buxton, Marte, and even Cain come to mind with some similarities. AJ pollock too. On phone so without looking them each up I’m pretty sure all were 4-5 years and in the 20m Aav range.

Springer is the biggest CF contract in the last few years and he’d be a best case scenario comp for nimmo that boras is probably asking for but I doubt anyone would do bc springers track record was both more reliable and more productive so imo anyone giving nimmo that much would be over aggressive. All it takes is 1 team to go big though and sometimes boras finds that team. But if nimmo is reasonable and wants to be back I think it will be in that 4-5 year 20-24m aav range.


I think Nimmo will remain a “Michael Brantley”, underrated and undervalued even salary wise for his entire career thanks to a sum of parts skillset
RE: “Not sure, they haven’t said anything yet”  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 11:57 am : link
In comment 15771693 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
On Vientos per a writer. COVID related seems at least plausible given the late pull and lack of information.


I think this would be the 2nd or 3rd time for him? Im traveling most of aug so it’s a lock his eventual debut is a game I miss.
A  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:58 am : link
Nice recent development is Jeff McNeil is completely out of his slump and raging hot
RE: RE: Contracts are about comps more than anything else  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 12:00 pm : link
In comment 15771696 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15771692 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


The more recent and similar the closer they will be.

Buxton, Marte, and even Cain come to mind with some similarities. AJ pollock too. On phone so without looking them each up I’m pretty sure all were 4-5 years and in the 20m Aav range.

Springer is the biggest CF contract in the last few years and he’d be a best case scenario comp for nimmo that boras is probably asking for but I doubt anyone would do bc springers track record was both more reliable and more productive so imo anyone giving nimmo that much would be over aggressive. All it takes is 1 team to go big though and sometimes boras finds that team. But if nimmo is reasonable and wants to be back I think it will be in that 4-5 year 20-24m aav range.



I think Nimmo will remain a “Michael Brantley”, underrated and undervalued even salary wise for his entire career thanks to a sum of parts skillset


Another good comp - Brantley has also similar injury issues which is he’s gotten shorter deals but in that aav range. Buxton was a near perfect comp if nimmo extended in the spring and didn’t switch to boras.
RE: RE: even with the slow start  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 12:00 pm : link
In comment 15771573 nyfootballfan said:
Quote:
In comment 15771540 KDavies said:


Quote:


Alvarez has an .822 OPS in AAA. 18 games, 4 HR, 4 doubles, 15 walks. Average up to .197



saw an insta post where he launched it out of the whole yard.


I posted the link to his HR in this thread...

Must see for everyone..
RE: RE: “Not sure, they haven’t said anything yet”  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 12:18 pm : link
In comment 15771697 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15771693 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


On Vientos per a writer. COVID related seems at least plausible given the late pull and lack of information.



I think this would be the 2nd or 3rd time for him? Im traveling most of aug so it’s a lock his eventual debut is a game I miss.


Like I said, I’ve yet to see this confirmed anywhere but there are also “inconclusive” tests etc or even missing taking one. He hasn’t been promoted or wed know by now. Could easily just have felt a stomach bug etc
McNeil....  
Italianju : 8/4/2022 12:18 pm : link
getting hot again has been great. The depth of our lineup was supposed to help us not go through scoring droughts like we did in June. U figured as some guys get hot others will cool and vice versa, but then everyone went cold at once, lol.

And i do feel the cold stretches are bigger issues for a team with so little power. We rely on stringing together hits and if everyone is cold thats hard to do.

Overall I think the lineup will be fine, biggest worry (outside of health of course) is how do you get the ball from Starter to Edwin, ha.
I  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 12:23 pm : link
Think there are higher odds Lugo continued pitching well enough that he takes the 8th with May than Givens is that guy. I don’t think Sam Clay is long for this team (St. John is marginally interesting in that role)
Nimmo should thank Zach Scott  
Vanzetti : 8/4/2022 12:25 pm : link
If he had not traded away PCA, Nimmo would most likely not get a five year deal from Mets. Marte could play CF until Pete was ready.

It's amazing how much Scott and Sandy managed to f*ck up in just one year.
Honestly Ottavino...  
Italianju : 8/4/2022 12:28 pm : link
has been more then solid. And lugo has looked better. Problem is those are the only two guys i had confidence in. And lugo has all his weird issues with pitching two days in a row and blah blah blah. HOpefully May joins that group. None will feel lock down, but we do have an advantage that a lot of teams done, our starters go pretty deep into games (deep by todays standards)
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 12:39 pm : link
None of the 2022 @mets
draft class is in the lineup for the FCL @mets
today
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 12:42 pm : link
17 year old Wilson Esterlin 5 innings 1 hit 0 runs 2 walks 5 k's (era down to 2.48), Andinson Ferrer 2 hitless 4 k's (39 k's over 25.1 innings)
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 12:53 pm : link
Cristofer Gomez (older at 19 years old) but 6'4 222 drops his era to 0.57 over 15.2 innings (24 k's) #Mets
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 12:56 pm : link
FCL LHP Felipe De La Cruz came into today with a 6.33 era over 7 appearances... today 3 no-hit innings perfect with 5 k's #Mets
RE: Nimmo should thank Zach Scott  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 12:59 pm : link
In comment 15771723 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
If he had not traded away PCA, Nimmo would most likely not get a five year deal from Mets. Marte could play CF until Pete was ready.

It's amazing how much Scott and Sandy managed to f*ck up in just one year.


The chances of PCA being as good as Nimmo are slim...
RE: Honestly Ottavino...  
Vanzetti : 8/4/2022 1:02 pm : link
In comment 15771724 Italianju said:
Quote:
has been more then solid. And lugo has looked better. Problem is those are the only two guys i had confidence in. And lugo has all his weird issues with pitching two days in a row and blah blah blah. HOpefully May joins that group. None will feel lock down, but we do have an advantage that a lot of teams done, our starters go pretty deep into games (deep by todays standards)



It seems Eppler and Co. are really counting on Megill, DP and the odd-man-out starter in playoffs to fortify the bullpen.

Zaide obviously saw something he liked with Pucki and Giants have a long history of finding relievers. Yet, Mets did not even give him a chance in the pen despite their desperate need for a lefty?

I have to assume that they have a plan and I don't see anyone else other than DP.
Megill's  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 1:04 pm : link
splits are troubling as a RP. He's borderline unpitchable vs. lefties. In the off-season they may figure out something that helps him combat them but on the fly that seems unlikely. I had not realized how bad his numbers were vs. them, seemingly if he somehow finds an outpitch against them it will be a gamechanger for his career.
RE: RE: Honestly Ottavino...  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 1:06 pm : link
In comment 15771759 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
In comment 15771724 Italianju said:


Quote:


has been more then solid. And lugo has looked better. Problem is those are the only two guys i had confidence in. And lugo has all his weird issues with pitching two days in a row and blah blah blah. HOpefully May joins that group. None will feel lock down, but we do have an advantage that a lot of teams done, our starters go pretty deep into games (deep by todays standards)




It seems Eppler and Co. are really counting on Megill, DP and the odd-man-out starter in playoffs to fortify the bullpen.

Zaide obviously saw something he liked with Pucki and Giants have a long history of finding relievers. Yet, Mets did not even give him a chance in the pen despite their desperate need for a lefty?

I have to assume that they have a plan and I don't see anyone else other than DP.


St. John has a chance to be an acceptable LOOGY option.
As  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 1:07 pm : link
for a "plan" Eppler acknowledged they tried trading for one and thought they were close so I think that would shoot down that the "plan" was Peterson, that may be the plan now however.
RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 1:33 pm : link
In comment 15771752 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
FCL LHP Felipe De La Cruz came into today with a 6.33 era over 7 appearances... today 3 no-hit innings perfect with 5 k's #Mets


Make that 5 1 hit innings, 8 k's. Despite the still unsightly 5.13 era, he now has 38 k's over 26.1 innings for the FCL Mets #Mets
Megill pitched well before he was hurt  
Snablats : 8/4/2022 2:00 pm : link
Only 1 bad start in his first 5, then he got hurt. 0 ER in 3 of his first 5 starts

Im sure they are looking at him as a late inning guy from the pen

No good lefty out of the bullpen may kill them in the playoffs. It is really an egregious mistake
RE: Megill pitched well before he was hurt  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 2:06 pm : link
In comment 15771793 Snablats said:
Quote:
Only 1 bad start in his first 5, then he got hurt. 0 ER in 3 of his first 5 starts

Im sure they are looking at him as a late inning guy from the pen

No good lefty out of the bullpen may kill them in the playoffs. It is really an egregious mistake


I like Megill a lot but the splits are striking and you don't need fancy stats to see it.

Career vs. lefties .306/.371/.564-.934
Career vs. righties .198/.241/.325-.566

2022 vs. lefties

.287/.347/.471-.819

2022 vs. righties .194/.234/.306-.539

So he's been completely dominant vs. righties and extremely poor vs. lefties. To THIS point in his career, he's not somebody you could trust to pitch an inning in a spot where a top tier lefty hitter were due up. Really surprised these splits haven't been noted before (even by me).
RE: RE: Megill pitched well before he was hurt  
Snablats : 8/4/2022 2:11 pm : link
In comment 15771797 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15771793 Snablats said:


Quote:


Only 1 bad start in his first 5, then he got hurt. 0 ER in 3 of his first 5 starts

Im sure they are looking at him as a late inning guy from the pen

No good lefty out of the bullpen may kill them in the playoffs. It is really an egregious mistake



I like Megill a lot but the splits are striking and you don't need fancy stats to see it.

Career vs. lefties .306/.371/.564-.934
Career vs. righties .198/.241/.325-.566

2022 vs. lefties

.287/.347/.471-.819

2022 vs. righties .194/.234/.306-.539

So he's been completely dominant vs. righties and extremely poor vs. lefties. To THIS point in his career, he's not somebody you could trust to pitch an inning in a spot where a top tier lefty hitter were due up. Really surprised these splits haven't been noted before (even by me).

Again, UNTIL HE WAS HURT, Megill was pitching very well. So what were the splits in his first 5 starts?

He also pitched well early last year before tiring later in the year

The splits you keep referring to are skewed from after he was hurt this year and after he tired last season

It sounds like Mets completely misread the market for relievers  
Vanzetti : 8/4/2022 2:16 pm : link
To say "we tried" is meaningless. The bottom line is Mets were not willing to pay the market price for a lefty reliever. Yet, they were willing to move prospects for Naquin--
RE: Megill's  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 2:17 pm : link
In comment 15771762 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
splits are troubling as a RP. He's borderline unpitchable vs. lefties. In the off-season they may figure out something that helps him combat them but on the fly that seems unlikely. I had not realized how bad his numbers were vs. them, seemingly if he somehow finds an outpitch against them it will be a gamechanger for his career.


Interesting I saw you post something about how CU is not a good pitch for lefties vs him...

Traditionally.. a great CU IS an ideal out pitch for a RHP vs a LH batter, especially if the pitcher has a slider to play off...
RE: RE: Megill's  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 2:26 pm : link
In comment 15771806 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15771762 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


splits are troubling as a RP. He's borderline unpitchable vs. lefties. In the off-season they may figure out something that helps him combat them but on the fly that seems unlikely. I had not realized how bad his numbers were vs. them, seemingly if he somehow finds an outpitch against them it will be a gamechanger for his career.



Interesting I saw you post something about how CU is not a good pitch for lefties vs him...

Traditionally.. a great CU IS an ideal out pitch for a RHP vs a LH batter, especially if the pitcher has a slider to play off...


For him it hasn’t been. He has no describable out pitch vs. lefties.and believe it or not, velocity or not, his FB has actually been a below average pitch in 2022. I don’t know what the answer is for him vs. lefties. I’m not a pitching coach. But he’s been borderline unpitchable vs. lefties.
Snab  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 2:28 pm : link
His CAREER numbers vs. lefties are terrible. What does his recent injury have to do with that?
Are you suggesting  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 2:30 pm : link
Career vs. lefties .306/.371/.564-.934, career is because of his post injury appearance? 280 PA’s vs lefties weighed down by 12 post injury innings? Cmon
Megill only throws the curve 5.8% of the time  
Vanzetti : 8/4/2022 2:31 pm : link
That's a big increase from his previous 2.6% so I think people are right that he is trying to develop the pitch to combat lefties.

But right now his primary weapon against LH hitters is the changeup, which he throws about 20% of the time overall and probably a higher percentage to lefties.

Problem is that his fastball averages 95 and his change 89 mph. Not enough differential in mph for it to be super effective. Last year differential was more but hitters were picking up a change in his delivery. His altered delivery solved that problem but created another. These are the normal adjustments a young pitcher goes through.

That said, I think he will be effective in the pen because he can go mostly slider/fastball and mix in an occasional change. He does not need 20% change-ups like he does when facing the same hitters multiple times.
If David Peterson did not get blown up for a bomb...  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 2:35 pm : link
in his appearance out of the pen...and instead had a 1-2-3..wouldn't we be talking about him as an option?

Maybe they can work with him a bit and he can be a weapon there.
RE: Snab  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 2:36 pm : link
In comment 15771814 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
His CAREER numbers vs. lefties are terrible. What does his recent injury have to do with that?

He's got eyes we all trust more than your silly numbers :)
From March  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 2:42 pm : link
“ While Megill’s changeup did improve during his rookie season, lefties still hit him at a .315/.383/.612 clip. So Megill worked this offseason to develop another pitch: a cut fastball, which he believes can keep left-handed hitters more off-kilter than the changeup alone ever could.

“I definitely wanted to add another weapon,”

He’s thrown the cutter a total of 19 times aka *5*th most of his pitches. He’s either junked it or it didn’t work
Deadline analogy  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 2:42 pm : link
Imagine driving, but you don't know how many miles till empty. You're making great time and pretty sure you have "enough in the tank" to make it.
Now adding a gallon of gas might help, so you pull over. Ask for a tank of gas but all you have is a few dollar bills, and Benjamin and a couple thousand dollar bills.
You try your hardest to get a gallon, but cant.
So you are confident you can offer the $100 bill for a fillup to really give yourself a chance to make that trip with no problem.
They insist on a thousand dollar bill.

What do you do?

Instead, had a chance to trade some change hop in a hybrid, getting better mileage per gallon. Not a fillup, but you kept your money for future fillups, but on this trip you feel confident you can make it too.
RE: If David Peterson did not get blown up for a bomb...  
Vanzetti : 8/4/2022 2:43 pm : link
In comment 15771821 moze1021 said:
Quote:
in his appearance out of the pen...and instead had a 1-2-3..wouldn't we be talking about him as an option?

Maybe they can work with him a bit and he can be a weapon there.


He is not a reliever and they bring him into a one-run game in the 8th to face the heart of the Yankees order with the whole stadium in a frenzy? Yeah, I think I'll give DP a pass on that one.

Let's see how he does in the pen after he gets his feet wet
RE: RE: If David Peterson did not get blown up for a bomb...  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 2:46 pm : link
In comment 15771828 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
In comment 15771821 moze1021 said:


Quote:


in his appearance out of the pen...and instead had a 1-2-3..wouldn't we be talking about him as an option?

Maybe they can work with him a bit and he can be a weapon there.



He is not a reliever and they bring him into a one-run game in the 8th to face the heart of the Yankees order with the whole stadium in a frenzy? Yeah, I think I'll give DP a pass on that one.

Let's see how he does in the pen after he gets his feet wet


Ideal world, they would have enough depth to legit move him to the Syracuse pen for a bit, see how he responds as a RP, how he responds pitching back to back days, coming into face a specific batter etc. They may yet to that and have Williams as the "next man up" in the rotation.
Lucchesi  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 2:49 pm : link
threw live BP on 7/22, since then radio silence so, who knows what the deal is with him but he was a potential option as well (though he too has been less than stellar vs. lefties over the past 2 seasons)

2021 .276
2020 .400 (only 10 ab's)
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 2:50 pm : link
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
25m
The #Mets have signed RHP Joe Joe Rodriguez from St. John’s (NY) as an undrafted free agent.

He also pitched in the @mlbdraftleague
for Trenton, where he had a 2.17 ERA in 37.1 IP and was up to 95 mph.
RE: RE: RE: If David Peterson did not get blown up for a bomb...  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 2:51 pm : link
In comment 15771831 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15771828 Vanzetti said:


Quote:


In comment 15771821 moze1021 said:


Quote:


in his appearance out of the pen...and instead had a 1-2-3..wouldn't we be talking about him as an option?

Maybe they can work with him a bit and he can be a weapon there.



He is not a reliever and they bring him into a one-run game in the 8th to face the heart of the Yankees order with the whole stadium in a frenzy? Yeah, I think I'll give DP a pass on that one.

Let's see how he does in the pen after he gets his feet wet



Ideal world, they would have enough depth to legit move him to the Syracuse pen for a bit, see how he responds as a RP, how he responds pitching back to back days, coming into face a specific batter etc. They may yet to that and have Williams as the "next man up" in the rotation.


100%
RE: Deadline analogy  
Vanzetti : 8/4/2022 2:54 pm : link
In comment 15771827 Shecky said:
Quote:
Imagine driving, but you don't know how many miles till empty. You're making great time and pretty sure you have "enough in the tank" to make it.
Now adding a gallon of gas might help, so you pull over. Ask for a tank of gas but all you have is a few dollar bills, and Benjamin and a couple thousand dollar bills.
You try your hardest to get a gallon, but cant.
So you are confident you can offer the $100 bill for a fillup to really give yourself a chance to make that trip with no problem.
They insist on a thousand dollar bill.

What do you do?

Instead, had a chance to trade some change hop in a hybrid, getting better mileage per gallon. Not a fillup, but you kept your money for future fillups, but on this trip you feel confident you can make it too.



Interesting analogy.

But here's another one

You really want to live in Manhattan because you have a degree in finance and that's where the jobs are.

You have 100K saved up. However, you decide you are not willing to pay more than $900 for an apartment because you want to keep your savings intact for the future.

You contact several people with apartments to rent and offer $900 and they all turn you down.

Disappointed that nobody would give you what you wanted, you decide to move back in with your parents but when you call your mom to tell her, she says, "I'm sorry honey but while you were looking for an apartment, your cousin Austin from Atlanta moved in."
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 2:54 pm : link
“The numbers are the numbers. They are what they are going to be,” said Rodriguez, who insisted his stuff felt good while throwing for the Red Storm. “I just made a little tweak in my mentality. There I’ve always wanted to win the sense of team wise, but when I came here just a tweak in the mindset where I’m going out and representing myself and my school. I just wanted to put it all together and let it all fly out.”

His raw stuff can play at the professional level, and impressed the Cincinnati Reds enough that they took him in the 20th round in 2019 out of Cumberland County College, although he opted for St. John’s instead.

Rodriguez believes he’s a better pitcher now then he was in 2019. His velocity has gone up since he was drafted by the Reds and he still feels there’s room to grow.

“I only had a fastball and slider that I could get in the zone, but being able to develop the other pitches put me in a different aspect of pitching,” Rodriguez said. “Change-up, more depth on the slider has me being able to be in all four quadrants of the zone and make a hitter uncomfortable.”

It doesn’t hurt having former big league All-Star Shawn Chacon as a pitching coach either.
RE: Megill's  
Section331 : 8/4/2022 2:55 pm : link
In comment 15771762 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
splits are troubling as a RP. He's borderline unpitchable vs. lefties. In the off-season they may figure out something that helps him combat them but on the fly that seems unlikely. I had not realized how bad his numbers were vs. them, seemingly if he somehow finds an outpitch against them it will be a gamechanger for his career.


He’s got to get better with his slider, it will make his CU much more effective v. LHB’s. Being on a team with 3 of the best sliders in MLB - Jake, Max, and Diaz - one would think he could pick it up.
RE: Deadline analogy  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 2:57 pm : link
In comment 15771827 Shecky said:
Quote:
Imagine driving, but you don't know how many miles till empty. You're making great time and pretty sure you have "enough in the tank" to make it.
Now adding a gallon of gas might help, so you pull over. Ask for a tank of gas but all you have is a few dollar bills, and Benjamin and a couple thousand dollar bills.
You try your hardest to get a gallon, but cant.
So you are confident you can offer the $100 bill for a fillup to really give yourself a chance to make that trip with no problem.
They insist on a thousand dollar bill.

What do you do?

Instead, had a chance to trade some change hop in a hybrid, getting better mileage per gallon. Not a fillup, but you kept your money for future fillups, but on this trip you feel confident you can make it too.


Well a $1000 bill is worth like $4-5K since it hasn't been produced since 1934 and was actively taken out of circulation..so you need to hold onto that
How can you be borderline unpitchable against lefties  
Snablats : 8/4/2022 2:58 pm : link
But have three scoreless outings out of five to start the year before getting hurt? And be pitching very well last year before tiring
-  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:01 pm : link
Rodriguez shows solid starter traits with his ability to miss bats and induce weak contact with each of his three pitches. He mainly operates with a 92-94 (T95) and a mid-to-upper 70s slurvy breaking ball (61% Whiff%, 2700 rpm avg.) while also working in a quality changeup (60% Whiff%).
RE: RE: Deadline analogy  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 3:04 pm : link
In comment 15771839 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15771827 Shecky said:


Quote:


Imagine driving, but you don't know how many miles till empty. You're making great time and pretty sure you have "enough in the tank" to make it.
Now adding a gallon of gas might help, so you pull over. Ask for a tank of gas but all you have is a few dollar bills, and Benjamin and a couple thousand dollar bills.
You try your hardest to get a gallon, but cant.
So you are confident you can offer the $100 bill for a fillup to really give yourself a chance to make that trip with no problem.
They insist on a thousand dollar bill.

What do you do?

Instead, had a chance to trade some change hop in a hybrid, getting better mileage per gallon. Not a fillup, but you kept your money for future fillups, but on this trip you feel confident you can make it too.



Well a $1000 bill is worth like $4-5K since it hasn't been produced since 1934 and was actively taken out of circulation..so you need to hold onto that


Like a 40HR catcher...

Vanzetti - I like your analogy, but... You are assuming they CHOSE - takes two to tango.
I'm not going to go into a whole back and forth. I'm sure there is a Padres fan somewhere bitching they didn't get Ohtani and only got Hader and Soto.
It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't world.
If a WS was GUARANTEED this year, they do it. it isn't. best way to win a world series? Not play in one, but play in multiple world series. That's reality.

Not picking up a waiver wire quality LHRP? You really think that's make or break this year? It'd be nice, but it doesn't guarantee anything. Hader - sure would have been nice... So would Contreras.
RE: How can you be borderline unpitchable against lefties  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 3:05 pm : link
In comment 15771840 Snablats said:
Quote:
But have three scoreless outings out of five to start the year before getting hurt? And be pitching very well last year before tiring

What youd see? You tell us
As much as we all dream on Megill as a SP  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 3:08 pm : link
I personally think he is an even better 8th inning guy.
Figure out if he is a SP in the offseason. Depending on team need.
McCann  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:08 pm : link
activated, Mazeika sent down. I wouldn't mind them dumping Mazeika for Severino. He's not "good" but just last season .690 OPS with 11 homers, his career OPS is .677 vs. McCann .681 (I'm just comparing him to the starter in the sense, he's not "that much" worse and a better player than Mazeika)
Start the clock on McCann's next injury.  
Ten Ton Hammer : 8/4/2022 3:10 pm : link
.
RE: RE: RE: Deadline analogy  
Vanzetti : 8/4/2022 3:11 pm : link
In comment 15771843 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 15771839 moze1021 said:


Quote:


In comment 15771827 Shecky said:


Quote:


Imagine driving, but you don't know how many miles till empty. You're making great time and pretty sure you have "enough in the tank" to make it.
Now adding a gallon of gas might help, so you pull over. Ask for a tank of gas but all you have is a few dollar bills, and Benjamin and a couple thousand dollar bills.
You try your hardest to get a gallon, but cant.
So you are confident you can offer the $100 bill for a fillup to really give yourself a chance to make that trip with no problem.
They insist on a thousand dollar bill.

What do you do?

Instead, had a chance to trade some change hop in a hybrid, getting better mileage per gallon. Not a fillup, but you kept your money for future fillups, but on this trip you feel confident you can make it too.



Well a $1000 bill is worth like $4-5K since it hasn't been produced since 1934 and was actively taken out of circulation..so you need to hold onto that



Like a 40HR catcher...

Vanzetti - I like your analogy, but... You are assuming they CHOSE - takes two to tango.
I'm not going to go into a whole back and forth. I'm sure there is a Padres fan somewhere bitching they didn't get Ohtani and only got Hader and Soto.
It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't world.
If a WS was GUARANTEED this year, they do it. it isn't. best way to win a world series? Not play in one, but play in multiple world series. That's reality.

Not picking up a waiver wire quality LHRP? You really think that's make or break this year? It'd be nice, but it doesn't guarantee anything. Hader - sure would have been nice... So would Contreras.



Yeah, I'm not actually upset about the lefty reliever thing. I just think the analogies are fun.

I'm also a strong believer that DP will be a better reliever than anyone available other than Hader. I believe in the late-developing lefty theory and I also think tall guys take longer to develop command. Put those together and I think DP has room to grow.

Just not sure if he has enough runway this season to become reliable out of the pen.
RE: As much as we all dream on Megill as a SP  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:13 pm : link
In comment 15771847 Shecky said:
Quote:
I personally think he is an even better 8th inning guy.
Figure out if he is a SP in the offseason. Depending on team need.


I think he's long term home is in the BP and think he could be Trevor May 2.0. They identified the cutter as a way to help him vs. lefties and his numbers while still bad were better, he obviously needs to feel comfortable throwing it more often.
RE: RE: As much as we all dream on Megill as a SP  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 3:25 pm : link
In comment 15771853 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15771847 Shecky said:


Quote:


I personally think he is an even better 8th inning guy.
Figure out if he is a SP in the offseason. Depending on team need.



I think he's long term home is in the BP and think he could be Trevor May 2.0. They identified the cutter as a way to help him vs. lefties and his numbers while still bad were better, he obviously needs to feel comfortable throwing it more often.

Problem is, Megill is something we don't have. A high upside SP. IMO, his upside is a 3/4, but he certainly has teased.
His problems are endurance, his FB is a tick too low, secondary's potential SL and CH don't have good results.
In the pen, endurance isn't an issue. Secondary's less of an issue. His FB will tick up (already can with mechanic tweaks). Which will also improve his secondary's.
Was a college BP guy, so doesn't have to learn it like some other guys.
IMO, prep him for 8th inning in Sept/Oct - he's the best we got.

As I mentioned the other day - I think we have an embarrassment of riches with SP arms. The bridge to Diaz isn't the problem. Shortening the game is - they needed a dominant 8th inning guy.
Hader ticked every box. LHP, protection for Diaz leaving next year, shutdown 8th inning.
Contreras ticked every box. RH bat, better behind the dish, lengthens lineup.

Any deadline screaming for anyone else, again just IMO, absolutely foolish.
RE: RE: RE: As much as we all dream on Megill as a SP  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 3:32 pm : link
In comment 15771862 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 15771853 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 15771847 Shecky said:


Quote:


I personally think he is an even better 8th inning guy.
Figure out if he is a SP in the offseason. Depending on team need.



I think he's long term home is in the BP and think he could be Trevor May 2.0. They identified the cutter as a way to help him vs. lefties and his numbers while still bad were better, he obviously needs to feel comfortable throwing it more often.


Problem is, Megill is something we don't have. A high upside SP. IMO, his upside is a 3/4, but he certainly has teased.
His problems are endurance, his FB is a tick too low, secondary's potential SL and CH don't have good results.
In the pen, endurance isn't an issue. Secondary's less of an issue. His FB will tick up (already can with mechanic tweaks). Which will also improve his secondary's.
Was a college BP guy, so doesn't have to learn it like some other guys.
IMO, prep him for 8th inning in Sept/Oct - he's the best we got.

As I mentioned the other day - I think we have an embarrassment of riches with SP arms. The bridge to Diaz isn't the problem. Shortening the game is - they needed a dominant 8th inning guy.
Hader ticked every box. LHP, protection for Diaz leaving next year, shutdown 8th inning.
Contreras ticked every box. RH bat, better behind the dish, lengthens lineup.

Any deadline screaming for anyone else, again just IMO, absolutely foolish.


Fastball a tick to low?

His average FB this year was 97.5 MPH... 22nd highest in MLB of guys who have thrown 250 more fastballs this year...
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:33 pm : link
Kubichek 2.1 innings 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 1 k, era drops to 1.20
RE: RE: RE: RE: As much as we all dream on Megill as a SP  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 3:35 pm : link
In comment 15771867 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15771862 Shecky said:


Quote:


In comment 15771853 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 15771847 Shecky said:


Quote:


I personally think he is an even better 8th inning guy.
Figure out if he is a SP in the offseason. Depending on team need.



I think he's long term home is in the BP and think he could be Trevor May 2.0. They identified the cutter as a way to help him vs. lefties and his numbers while still bad were better, he obviously needs to feel comfortable throwing it more often.


Problem is, Megill is something we don't have. A high upside SP. IMO, his upside is a 3/4, but he certainly has teased.
His problems are endurance, his FB is a tick too low, secondary's potential SL and CH don't have good results.
In the pen, endurance isn't an issue. Secondary's less of an issue. His FB will tick up (already can with mechanic tweaks). Which will also improve his secondary's.
Was a college BP guy, so doesn't have to learn it like some other guys.
IMO, prep him for 8th inning in Sept/Oct - he's the best we got.

As I mentioned the other day - I think we have an embarrassment of riches with SP arms. The bridge to Diaz isn't the problem. Shortening the game is - they needed a dominant 8th inning guy.
Hader ticked every box. LHP, protection for Diaz leaving next year, shutdown 8th inning.
Contreras ticked every box. RH bat, better behind the dish, lengthens lineup.

Any deadline screaming for anyone else, again just IMO, absolutely foolish.



Fastball a tick to low?

His average FB this year was 97.5 MPH... 22nd highest in MLB of guys who have thrown 250 more fastballs this year...


Sorry that was bad data...

95.7 was his average... still very high for a SP
Savant  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:35 pm : link
has Megill's average 4 seem velocity at 95.7 in 2022, 78th percentile, 386 FB's thrown
Yikes  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:38 pm : link
in 2022 hitters hit .310 with a .643 slugging% vs. his CU, his slider...1 single hit over 28 PA's (.037 BAA!)... yet he's only thrown 40 sliders. What that says to me as a complete nobody on BBI... his sequencing needs adjusting
RE: Savant  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 3:38 pm : link
In comment 15771874 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
has Megill's average 4 seem velocity at 95.7 in 2022, 78th percentile, 386 FB's thrown


Yep

Thats where I got the good data from
1 last point I forgot earlier, which is kinda important  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 3:38 pm : link
Why not overpay for a shot this year?
How much would any acquisition we made have moved the needle this year?

You win 100 games in a season and you've got a great chance of winning the WS normally, right? At minimum, one of the favorites.
This year it may not even get them a NL East title...

How often does a team win 100 games? About once a year. i think theres like 110 or something 100 win teams. Since 2000 there's like 20 or 25.

2022?
Might have FIVE 100 win teams. Plus the Padres who added Hader and Soto... think about that.
THREE 100 win teams in the NL, plus the Padres.
TWO 100 win teams, fighting for the division title in the east.

So we need to battle the Braves to hopefully win the division. Then battle a combo of Padres, Dodgers and Braves just to MAKE the WS this year. I don't care who is on the roster - that's effin brutal.

Clear all that, to have to try to beat the Astros or Yankees.

Sorry, a Loogy isn't the difference maker. Contreras might not have been either. This may be the most difficult year EVER to win the WS.

The good news. Two HOF Aces, still with a chance to win it.
RE: Yikes  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:41 pm : link
In comment 15771876 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
in 2022 hitters hit .310 with a .643 slugging% vs. his CU, his slider...1 single hit over 28 PA's (.037 BAA!)... yet he's only thrown 40 sliders. What that says to me as a complete nobody on BBI... his sequencing needs adjusting


40 sliders vs. lefties.

His slider has been completely dominant, weird they aren't having him throw it more
Putting  
five5 : 8/4/2022 3:41 pm : link
Mad Max aside… of Degrom, Carrasco, Walker and Bassitt who will be part of this rotation in 2023?
RE: Yikes  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 3:41 pm : link
In comment 15771876 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
in 2022 hitters hit .310 with a .643 slugging% vs. his CU, his slider...1 single hit over 28 PA's (.037 BAA!)... yet he's only thrown 40 sliders. What that says to me as a complete nobody on BBI... his sequencing needs adjusting


Yeah because he throws his CU 27% of pitches vs LH, 12% of time vs right..

Because textbook says you throw CU to opposite handedness.. but clearly his hasn't been effective
Per  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:43 pm : link
Heyman, Moreno wasn't even willing to listen to any Ohtani trade offers at the deadline.
RE: RE: Snab  
speedywheels : 8/4/2022 3:49 pm : link
In comment 15771823 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 15771814 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


His CAREER numbers vs. lefties are terrible. What does his recent injury have to do with that?


He's got eyes we all trust more than your silly numbers :)


Haha!
Lefties  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:50 pm : link
vs. Megill

CU- .333/.667 Slug


Last season
CU .327/.714 slug

This is the crux of his issue



RE: Putting  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 3:50 pm : link
In comment 15771882 five5 said:
Quote:
Mad Max aside… of Degrom, Carrasco, Walker and Bassitt who will be part of this rotation in 2023?


Really hope deGrom is a lifelong Met... we deserve it after watching the Seaver and Doc go elsewhere

I think Carrasco is under contract so he'll be around, along with Peterson... both hopefully going for 5/6 starter role

At this point I love what Bassitt has done but he's 33 vs Walker's 29.. so I'd rather go with Walker

Then Ohtani to round it out
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:53 pm : link
Josh Walker scheduled to make his first start for @stluciemets. He had been out for most of this season due to injury. Dominic Hamel the starter for @BKCyclones walks remain an issue (10 over his last 20 innings pitched) but 6 scoreless with 6 k's last time out #Mets
RE: Lefties  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 3:54 pm : link
In comment 15771890 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
vs. Megill

CU- .333/.667 Slug


Last season
CU .327/.714 slug

This is the crux of his issue




Look at the heatmap of his CU vs Max's vs LH.. Megill leaves his up and over.. max is either in the zone inside or below the zone in the middle... thats how it's supposed to be done
RE: RE: Putting  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:55 pm : link
In comment 15771891 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15771882 five5 said:


Quote:


Mad Max aside… of Degrom, Carrasco, Walker and Bassitt who will be part of this rotation in 2023?



Really hope deGrom is a lifelong Met... we deserve it after watching the Seaver and Doc go elsewhere

I think Carrasco is under contract so he'll be around, along with Peterson... both hopefully going for 5/6 starter role

At this point I love what Bassitt has done but he's 33 vs Walker's 29.. so I'd rather go with Walker

Then Ohtani to round it out


Carrasco has a club option for 14 million that guarantees at... 170 innings... he's on pace for 173, wow lol
RE: RE: Lefties  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 3:58 pm : link
In comment 15771893 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15771890 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


vs. Megill

CU- .333/.667 Slug


Last season
CU .327/.714 slug

This is the crux of his issue






Look at the heatmap of his CU vs Max's vs LH.. Megill leaves his up and over.. max is either in the zone inside or below the zone in the middle... thats how it's supposed to be done


Scherzer is a real anamoly. His slider is arguably the most dominant RH/RH slider in the entire sport... and he doesn't throw it vs. lefties... at all. Not once.

283 vs. righties this season.... 0 vs. lefties. Nuts
RE: RE: RE: Lefties  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 4:01 pm : link
In comment 15771898 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15771893 moze1021 said:


Quote:


In comment 15771890 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


vs. Megill

CU- .333/.667 Slug


Last season
CU .327/.714 slug

This is the crux of his issue






Look at the heatmap of his CU vs Max's vs LH.. Megill leaves his up and over.. max is either in the zone inside or below the zone in the middle... thats how it's supposed to be done



Scherzer is a real anamoly. His slider is arguably the most dominant RH/RH slider in the entire sport... and he doesn't throw it vs. lefties... at all. Not once.

283 vs. righties this season.... 0 vs. lefties. Nuts


Right because he doesnt need to.. lol..

Cutter/Change

Doesn't throw the cutter vs righties
RE: RE: RE: Snab  
Snablats : 8/4/2022 4:04 pm : link
In comment 15771889 speedywheels said:
Quote:
In comment 15771823 Shecky said:


Quote:


In comment 15771814 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


His CAREER numbers vs. lefties are terrible. What does his recent injury have to do with that?


He's got eyes we all trust more than your silly numbers :)



Haha!

Hey look, two dumbasses who will never get it. And, as usual, Shecky never answers my question. If Megill was good enough to have 3 scoreless outings in his 1st five starts this year, then how is he "unpitchable" vs left hand hitters? If he pitches as well as he did before tiring late last season, how is he "unpitchable"?

The lifetime numbers are skewed due to his poor results after he was hurt this year and poor results from tiring last year

Shecky will never admit this because admitting he is wrong just never happens

He is either related to Alderson or friends with an Alderson family member. The guy never stops defending and apologizing for Alderson and his idiotic baseball philosophies/ideas
Scherzer  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 4:08 pm : link
as the saying goes had "significant reliever risk" because of his command... he'll go into the HOF first ballot. That's baseball lol
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 4:13 pm : link
Talk about living up to your nickname.... Since 1900 (122 years) Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams has the highest BB/9 (7.08) of all qualified pitchers
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 4:18 pm : link
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
11s
Dominic Smith (sprained right ankle) will begin a rehab assignment for Triple-A Syracuse tonight. With Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin now on the roster, the Mets won't say what comes next for Smith until he's healthy and ready to return.
JD Davis  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 4:23 pm : link
HR'd for SF (2 run)
RE: JD Davis  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 4:30 pm : link
In comment 15771914 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
HR'd for SF (2 run)


Oppo shot off Kershaw
RE: RE: JD Davis  
Snablats : 8/4/2022 4:33 pm : link
In comment 15771919 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 15771914 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


HR'd for SF (2 run)



Oppo shot off Kershaw

Good for JD!
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 4:36 pm : link
@RumblePoniesBB OF Brandon McIIwain has been activated from the IL #Mets
McCann off IL  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 4:39 pm : link
Mazeika back to AAA

I know McCann is a hot topic, but undeniable upgrade of Patrick
RE: McCann off IL  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 4:43 pm : link
In comment 15771924 moze1021 said:
Quote:
Mazeika back to AAA

I know McCann is a hot topic, but undeniable upgrade of Patrick


As I said above, they should bring in Severino and dump Mazeika
.  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 4:54 pm : link
Anthony Rieber
@AnthonyRieber
·
2m
Billy Eppler on WFAN on bringing up Alvarez to be the catcher THIS season: “Never say never.”
If  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 5:03 pm : link
he's mashing when 9/1 comes around, it's likely all hands on deck, though sadly for Vientos, don't see where he'd get any time at all (unless Ruf gets hurt). Ruf basically "is" Vientos.
RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 5:21 pm : link
In comment 15771934 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Anthony Rieber
@AnthonyRieber
·
2m
Billy Eppler on WFAN on bringing up Alvarez to be the catcher THIS season: “Never say never.”


Listened to the clip.

He said Alvarez would not be up "for the foreseeable future, but never say never". So yeah, if he's red hot when rosters expand it could happen.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Snab  
speedywheels : 8/4/2022 5:23 pm : link
In comment 15771901 Snablats said:
Quote:


The lifetime numbers are skewed due to his poor results after he was hurt this year and poor results from tiring last year


LOL - so when his stats are good, it's because he's a good pitcher, but when they are bad, it's due to either him being injured, or tired? That's just stupid. Even for you

Here is a link to his game logs for 2021.

His last start of the season, (10/1) he was excellent - 5 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 1 BB.

However, the two before that, (9/24 and 9/15) he got crushed - 7 IP combined, 10 runs, 14 hits, 5 walks, 4 HR.

The start before that (9/10) he was great - 7 IP, 2 runs, 4 hit 1 BB.

9/4 - 6 IP, 4 runs, 7 hit, 1 BB
8/29 - 5 IP, 2 runs, 1 hit, 1 BB
8/24 - 3.2 IP, 7 runs, 11 hits, 0 BB (oh, and gave up FOUR HR.
8/18 - 6 IP, 1 run, 5 hits, 1 BB
8/13 - 5 IP, 3 runs, 6 hits, 1 BB

So his last 10 starts, he was good in 4, bad in 4, "OK" in one (5 IP, 3 runs), and I'll be generous and say "meh" in one (IMO, giving up 4 runs in 6 IP on 9/4 is pretty bad, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on that one). And they pretty much alternated each start (with two bad starts back to back once).

But according to you, he must have been tired in only the bad ones, right? And never mind one of his best was the very last start of the season, when he should have been most "tired" of them all.

I know you don't like stats, but they really are helpful - you should try it out, instead of spewing complete nonsense every single post.

But yes, we are the dumbasses...



Here's the link  
speedywheels : 8/4/2022 5:24 pm : link
.
Linky - ( New Window )
Kershaw  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 5:33 pm : link
left the game (back) he's the best of his generation, and injuries suck... but that could hurt the Dodgers big time.
Megill didnt pitch in 2020  
Snablats : 8/4/2022 5:34 pm : link
and threw 40 minor league innings in 2021 before coming up to the Mets in June. His first 7 starts with the Mets he was really good. That put him at 75.33 innings on the year and he clearly ran out of gas after that

Then he was great to start this year before getting hurt and seeing his stats be horrible

So to say he is unpitchable because his career numbers vs lefties are skewed due to injury and not pitching in 2020 (and thus tiring quickly in 2021) is just plain wrong

Again, this is higher level thinking that escapes most people here
RE: Megill didnt pitch in 2020  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 5:37 pm : link
In comment 15771956 Snablats said:
Quote:
and threw 40 minor league innings in 2021 before coming up to the Mets in June. His first 7 starts with the Mets he was really good. That put him at 75.33 innings on the year and he clearly ran out of gas after that

Then he was great to start this year before getting hurt and seeing his stats be horrible

So to say he is unpitchable because his career numbers vs lefties are skewed due to injury and not pitching in 2020 (and thus tiring quickly in 2021) is just plain wrong

Again, this is higher level thinking that escapes most people here


And he's spoken about his issues with lefties and wanting to add a pitch against them because.... he was "tired" and "hurt"... this sure doesn't sound like he agrees...


Quote:
While Megill’s changeup did improve during his rookie season, lefties still hit him at a .315/.383/.612 clip. So Megill worked this offseason to develop another pitch: a cut fastball, which he believes can keep left-handed hitters more off-kilter than the changeup alone ever could.

“I definitely wanted to add another weapon,” Megill said after pitching three scoreless innings Sunday in the Mets’ 6-4 loss to the Cardinals. “I wanted something hard and something that goes into lefties, so they can respect the four-seam. If I have something hard and in, it’s just an advantage for me to get on their hands and allow them to second-guess themselves.”

Megill said he worked on his grip before the lockout with Double-A pitching coach Jerome Williams, then later with former teammate Tommy Wilson. The pitch still isn’t quite where he wants it -- he estimated that he threw three cutters on Sunday and wasn’t pleased with the results -- but it could become critical during the season.



Weird
Pretty  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 5:41 pm : link
weird to talk about your struggles with lefties, how you were going to incorporate a new pitch because of it, work in the off-season on it if it's just fatigue and injury... odd in fact. As noted, so far he's thrown 19 total cutters out of nearly 700 pitches thrown. Maybe it becomes an effective weapon once he gets comfortable with it? But he's struggled vs. lefties and he and the team recognize this and that it's not injury/fatigue related.
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 5:47 pm : link
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
·
3m
Buck Showalter on Dominic Smith: "When he’s deemed ready to physically be activated, then I’m sure Billy (Eppler) and I and the staff will talk about what’s next. ... Who knows what happens by the time Dom is physically able to start playing again?"
I  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 5:49 pm : link
mean, what else can Buck say but he's been replaced by Big Vog. Dom (I guess) can see a random game at 1b when Alonso is the DH. Otherwise, he's been replaced by Big Vog.
RE: 1 last point I forgot earlier, which is kinda important  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 6:09 pm : link
In comment 15771879 Shecky said:
Quote:
Why not overpay for a shot this year?
How much would any acquisition we made have moved the needle this year?

You win 100 games in a season and you've got a great chance of winning the WS normally, right? At minimum, one of the favorites.
This year it may not even get them a NL East title...

How often does a team win 100 games? About once a year. i think theres like 110 or something 100 win teams. Since 2000 there's like 20 or 25.

2022?
Might have FIVE 100 win teams. Plus the Padres who added Hader and Soto... think about that.
THREE 100 win teams in the NL, plus the Padres.
TWO 100 win teams, fighting for the division title in the east.

So we need to battle the Braves to hopefully win the division. Then battle a combo of Padres, Dodgers and Braves just to MAKE the WS this year. I don't care who is on the roster - that's effin brutal.

Clear all that, to have to try to beat the Astros or Yankees.

Sorry, a Loogy isn't the difference maker. Contreras might not have been either. This may be the most difficult year EVER to win the WS.

The good news. Two HOF Aces, still with a chance to win it.


Great post and great context.

One other thing there’s basically only 1 way there’s room to extend Contreras - which is Alvarez traded, which would basically only be for ohtani. I think the Mets will be in the thick of those talks but obviously it’s going to be highly competitive and who knows when the Angels decide to pull the trigger.

So while I wholeheartedly would have added a late inning reliever, I think holding the line with Contreras as a prohibitively likely pure rental was reasonable, especially if they turned down Mauricio. That wouldn’t have even been holding the line, he’s a better prospect than other teams gave up for non rentals with term.

mike minor’s numbers vs lefties, first time through the order, and prior performance from the pen made him a sort of dumpster unicorn. I don’t understand not rolling the dice on him or someone else like him. Fingers crossed he gets dfa’d.
RE: I  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 6:13 pm : link
In comment 15771967 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
mean, what else can Buck say but he's been replaced by Big Vog. Dom (I guess) can see a random game at 1b when Alonso is the DH. Otherwise, he's been replaced by Big Vog.


Honestly unless he was bringing back something useful he’s a nice insurance policy. Let him mash at Syracuse with Baty, vientos, Alvarez- that’s good for all 4 of them to get confidence and the big league team in case any roles open up.
This article expresses my own mixed emotions about this year's  
Dennis : 8/4/2022 6:52 pm : link
deadline signings and the state of the team in general.

I think that some of the earlier comments made on this thread were very cogent, especially regarding how many teams may win 100 games this year, and therefore how difficult it may be this year to win in the playoffs.
The Padres, Yankees, Braves, Dodgers and Astros are all formidable opponents this year.

Should we have done more on Aug 2 this year? I'm really unclear. I felt that we did a lot in the offseason, and didn't need as much help this summer as some other teams. However, some of our offseason signings are under-performing. Escobar, recently Canha(who i really like) in addition to Dom, JDD(I know he's gone now) and McCann, are all under-performing. On the plus side, McNeil,
Lindor, Nimmo, Walker, Carrasco, and Alonso (anyone else?), are performing well.

So, should we have done more? Yesterday I posted that I'd like to trust the FO knew what they were doing, and did enough. Today, after reading some additional articles, I have more doubts. The Athletic graded The Yankees as an A, The Braves and Phillies as a B+, in their Aug 2nd additions. We were graded a C. I'm envious.

I think the next 5 games this weekend against The Braves will answer some of my questions.

The Article I've attached expresses my own mixed emotions.

I'd be interested in hearing how you all feel?

Link to the article in The Atlantic:

https://theathletic.com/3471426/2022/08/03/mlb-trade-deadline-grades/
Link - ( New Window )
That Alvarez HR  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 7:09 pm : link
was crazy, but this Mauricio HR from Tuesday not far behind.
507 feet. Video in link

Quote:
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
Check out the numbers on this home run hit by Ronny Mauricio on Tuesday:

113 mph, 32 launch angle, 507 feet

Mauricio is 11-for-28 with 3 home runs and 2 walks in his last six games.

link - ( New Window )
This is maybe a fandom biased opinion but nym get no benefit of doubt  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 7:16 pm : link
Zips projects Voglebach, Naquin, and Ruf to add about 1.5 wins ROS.

Contreras’ 1.2 win projection ROS was the highest of any individual rental but how is the Mets fault the cubs decided to not trade him? Hasn’t every rumor indicated they went harder for him than anyone else?

Benintendi’s projection is .9 fwar and off the top of my head I think he was the only rental all star traded (not knocking nyy, I thought they had the best deadline of any team).

Mancini (.7) + Vazquez (.8) also equals the production the Mets added and Houston is another team who cleaned up. If you switched the 3 names the Mets got with those 2 the narrative would be much different but I’m not sure they’d have improved more than they did. I am sure they would have added 2 rentals instead of 2 players with affordable control beyond this year.

The bullpen criticisms are fair game but the rest of the criticisms are lazy. The Mets weren’t conservative, they were aggressive just not for the bigger names people expected. It may work out or it may not but they didn’t do nothing.
RE: That Alvarez HR  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 7:24 pm : link
In comment 15772008 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
was crazy, but this Mauricio HR from Tuesday not far behind.
507 feet. Video in link



Quote:


Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
Check out the numbers on this home run hit by Ronny Mauricio on Tuesday:

113 mph, 32 launch angle, 507 feet

Mauricio is 11-for-28 with 3 home runs and 2 walks in his last six games.

link - ( New Window )


He destroyed that ball. 1 of things that’s interesting about his season is he’s pulled the ball more than half the time and at a higher rate than just about anyone in the system including Alonso. and the hrs have followed. Whether that’s something intentional they wanted him to work on or not who knows, but it seems like important context in the arguments knocking his approach and decisions. Maybe he’s been doing what the team wants him to do and there’s been a learning curve? the XBH numbers speak for themselves and im not sure it’s possible to consider any year a bad year leading any league in total xbh.
RE: This is maybe a fandom biased opinion but nym get no benefit of doubt  
Dennis : 8/4/2022 7:27 pm : link
In comment 15772013 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Zips projects Voglebach, Naquin, and Ruf to add about 1.5 wins ROS.

Contreras’ 1.2 win projection ROS was the highest of any individual rental but how is the Mets fault the cubs decided to not trade him? Hasn’t every rumor indicated they went harder for him than anyone else?

Benintendi’s projection is .9 fwar and off the top of my head I think he was the only rental all star traded (not knocking nyy, I thought they had the best deadline of any team).

Mancini (.7) + Vazquez (.8) also equals the production the Mets added and Houston is another team who cleaned up. If you switched the 3 names the Mets got with those 2 the narrative would be much different but I’m not sure they’d have improved more than they did. I am sure they would have added 2 rentals instead of 2 players with affordable control beyond this year.

The bullpen criticisms are fair game but the rest of the criticisms are lazy. The Mets weren’t conservative, they were aggressive just not for the bigger names people expected. It may work out or it may not but they didn’t do nothing.


Hi Eric. I know you are one of the people on this site who has good insights and knowledge. I have a lot of respect for you, along with a few
other's knowledge re The Mets. Thanks for your thoughts, they are always
helpful to me.
From Mayer - Baty alvarez vientos in Aaa is going to be fun  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 7:27 pm : link
Mets third base prospect Brett Baty hit a two-run homer in his first at-bat tonight.

Now has 17 home runs and a .927 OPS in Double-A Binghamton.
RE: RE: This is maybe a fandom biased opinion but nym get no benefit of doubt  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 7:34 pm : link
In comment 15772026 Dennis said:
Quote:
In comment 15772013 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Zips projects Voglebach, Naquin, and Ruf to add about 1.5 wins ROS.

Contreras’ 1.2 win projection ROS was the highest of any individual rental but how is the Mets fault the cubs decided to not trade him? Hasn’t every rumor indicated they went harder for him than anyone else?

Benintendi’s projection is .9 fwar and off the top of my head I think he was the only rental all star traded (not knocking nyy, I thought they had the best deadline of any team).

Mancini (.7) + Vazquez (.8) also equals the production the Mets added and Houston is another team who cleaned up. If you switched the 3 names the Mets got with those 2 the narrative would be much different but I’m not sure they’d have improved more than they did. I am sure they would have added 2 rentals instead of 2 players with affordable control beyond this year.

The bullpen criticisms are fair game but the rest of the criticisms are lazy. The Mets weren’t conservative, they were aggressive just not for the bigger names people expected. It may work out or it may not but they didn’t do nothing.



Hi Eric. I know you are one of the people on this site who has good insights and knowledge. I have a lot of respect for you, along with a few
other's knowledge re The Mets. Thanks for your thoughts, they are always
helpful to me.

Ty dennis - I didn’t like giving up holderman and candidly I’m not sure I’d have made the moves they made, but after seeing how well Voglebach fits I think they deserve some benefit of doubt. Rufs numbers since 2020 are legitimately eye popping so if he can play to that level here it will be a very good add. He’s not a catcher but his bat could be as good as Contreras would have been and he has years of control.
RE: RE: RE: This is maybe a fandom biased opinion but nym get no benefit of doubt  
Dennis : 8/4/2022 8:15 pm : link
In comment 15772033 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15772026 Dennis said:


Quote:


In comment 15772013 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Zips projects Voglebach, Naquin, and Ruf to add about 1.5 wins ROS.

Contreras’ 1.2 win projection ROS was the highest of any individual rental but how is the Mets fault the cubs decided to not trade him? Hasn’t every rumor indicated they went harder for him than anyone else?

Benintendi’s projection is .9 fwar and off the top of my head I think he was the only rental all star traded (not knocking nyy, I thought they had the best deadline of any team).

Mancini (.7) + Vazquez (.8) also equals the production the Mets added and Houston is another team who cleaned up. If you switched the 3 names the Mets got with those 2 the narrative would be much different but I’m not sure they’d have improved more than they did. I am sure they would have added 2 rentals instead of 2 players with affordable control beyond this year.

The bullpen criticisms are fair game but the rest of the criticisms are lazy. The Mets weren’t conservative, they were aggressive just not for the bigger names people expected. It may work out or it may not but they didn’t do nothing.



Hi Eric. I know you are one of the people on this site who has good insights and knowledge. I have a lot of respect for you, along with a few
other's knowledge re The Mets. Thanks for your thoughts, they are always
helpful to me.


Ty dennis - I didn’t like giving up holderman and candidly I’m not sure I’d have made the moves they made, but after seeing how well Voglebach fits I think they deserve some benefit of doubt. Rufs numbers since 2020 are legitimately eye popping so if he can play to that level here it will be a very good add. He’s not a catcher but his bat could be as good as Contreras would have been and he has years of control.


Hi Ty, thanks. Good post. I read it right after Alonso and Vogelbach homered, you are very accurate.
Baty  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 8:20 pm : link
Again. 2 homers. Ed Blankenmeyer (granted working for the Mets at the time) compared his upside to Jim Thome
RE: Baty  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 8:27 pm : link
In comment 15772063 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Again. 2 homers. Ed Blankenmeyer (granted working for the Mets at the time) compared his upside to Jim Thome


Blankmeyer lol
RE: RE: Baty  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 9:40 pm : link
In comment 15772068 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15772063 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


Again. 2 homers. Ed Blankenmeyer (granted working for the Mets at the time) compared his upside to Jim Thome



Blankmeyer lol


Not comparing the upside, because theres just no chance. But something about baty reminds me of Freddie Freeman
RE: This is maybe a fandom biased opinion but nym get no benefit of doubt  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 9:43 pm : link
In comment 15772013 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Zips projects Voglebach, Naquin, and Ruf to add about 1.5 wins ROS.

Contreras’ 1.2 win projection ROS was the highest of any individual rental but how is the Mets fault the cubs decided to not trade him? Hasn’t every rumor indicated they went harder for him than anyone else?

Benintendi’s projection is .9 fwar and off the top of my head I think he was the only rental all star traded (not knocking nyy, I thought they had the best deadline of any team).

Mancini (.7) + Vazquez (.8) also equals the production the Mets added and Houston is another team who cleaned up. If you switched the 3 names the Mets got with those 2 the narrative would be much different but I’m not sure they’d have improved more than they did. I am sure they would have added 2 rentals instead of 2 players with affordable control beyond this year.

The bullpen criticisms are fair game but the rest of the criticisms are lazy. The Mets weren’t conservative, they were aggressive just not for the bigger names people expected. It may work out or it may not but they didn’t do nothing.


Not bad considering they get zero bonus for defense or position in WAR...
I trust snagle  
Shecky : 8/4/2022 9:47 pm : link
more than I trust Dan or Meggil himself to know what he can and can't do - and why
End of story
RE: RE: This is maybe a fandom biased opinion but nym get no benefit of doubt  
Eric on Li : 8/4/2022 10:19 pm : link
In comment 15772128 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 15772013 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Zips projects Voglebach, Naquin, and Ruf to add about 1.5 wins ROS.

Contreras’ 1.2 win projection ROS was the highest of any individual rental but how is the Mets fault the cubs decided to not trade him? Hasn’t every rumor indicated they went harder for him than anyone else?

Benintendi’s projection is .9 fwar and off the top of my head I think he was the only rental all star traded (not knocking nyy, I thought they had the best deadline of any team).

Mancini (.7) + Vazquez (.8) also equals the production the Mets added and Houston is another team who cleaned up. If you switched the 3 names the Mets got with those 2 the narrative would be much different but I’m not sure they’d have improved more than they did. I am sure they would have added 2 rentals instead of 2 players with affordable control beyond this year.

The bullpen criticisms are fair game but the rest of the criticisms are lazy. The Mets weren’t conservative, they were aggressive just not for the bigger names people expected. It may work out or it may not but they didn’t do nothing.



Not bad considering they get zero bonus for defense or position in WAR...


And on top of that the current catchers defensive value is higher than Contreras, plus whatever volatility comes with learning a new staff.

I’m not the biggest believer in platoons (vs better everyday players) so I’m not sure these were the moves I’d have made but the pieces they got do seem to fit together especially well. Even Naquin giving them a second RFer with a strong arm and Ruf possibly a solid backup 1b to give Alonso some off days.

Repetitive I know I just would have liked to see all bases covered in the bp the same way.
RE: Megill didnt pitch in 2020  
speedywheels : 8/4/2022 11:16 pm : link
In comment 15771956 Snablats said:
Quote:
and threw 40 minor league innings in 2021 before coming up to the Mets in June. His first 7 starts with the Mets he was really good. That put him at 75.33 innings on the year and he clearly ran out of gas after that

Then he was great to start this year before getting hurt and seeing his stats be horrible

So to say he is unpitchable because his career numbers vs lefties are skewed due to injury and not pitching in 2020 (and thus tiring quickly in 2021) is just plain wrong

Again, this is higher level thinking that escapes most people here


Keep bringing the stupid….

answer the fucking question - explain how he was so “tired” that ha alternated good and bad starts his last 10 starts last year?

The answer is - you can’t; you’re just a fucking moron.

🤷🏻‍♂️
It's getting tiring having to correct you  
Snablats : 8/4/2022 11:33 pm : link
First - it wasnt a good start every other start

Second - he had 5 decent or better starts in Aug/Sept/Oct. 3 of those 5 decent starts came on 5 days or 6 days rest. Only 2 of them were on the normal 4 days of rest, and both were in August

He clearly ran out of gas and needed more days between starts

RE: It's getting tiring having to correct you  
speedywheels : 8/4/2022 11:46 pm : link
In comment 15772196 Snablats said:
Quote:
First - it wasnt a good start every other start

Second - he had 5 decent or better starts in Aug/Sept/Oct. 3 of those 5 decent starts came on 5 days or 6 days rest. Only 2 of them were on the normal 4 days of rest, and both were in August

He clearly ran out of gas and needed more days between starts


Keep bringing the excuses for being wrong.

Must be “tiring” being this stupid, huh?

He had two starts NINE days apart  
speedywheels : 8/4/2022 11:54 pm : link
And he sucked both times.

We know stats aren’t your thing, but you should really pay attention to them. Every now and then, at the very least.

🤷🏻‍♂️
So you don't understand what you're watching  
Snablats : 8/5/2022 12:02 am : link
And you don't understand numbers, either

What does it tell you that they were trying to give him extra time between starts and he still couldn't pitch well? It means he was gassed




I was not high on the Naquin trade  
Vanzetti : 8/5/2022 12:21 am : link
It seemed like the Mets were fixing a minor problem (Jankowski) and ignoring a big one: the bullpen

But results are the only thing that matter and Naquin's OPS with the Mets is 1.167.

Mets have also won 9 of 10 and Naquin and Vogelbach have been a big part of that.

So, the Front Office has to get good marks for the guys they did get. I think the offense is significantly better and in terms of cost these guys--Vog, Naquin, and Ruf-- are a great value.

Only time will tell if the bullpen will come back to bite.
RE: So you don't understand what you're watching  
speedywheels : 8/5/2022 1:13 am : link
In comment 15772207 Snablats said:
Quote:
And you don't understand numbers, either

What does it tell you that they were trying to give him extra time between starts and he still couldn't pitch well? It means he was gassed





No, it means he’s not that good.

Do you practice being this dumb, or does it come naturally?
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