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NFT: Mets Minors 8/4/2022

DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:03 am
AAA
Alvarez 1-4, HR, K, passed ball
Vientos was in the lineup but didn't play. No indication he was called up, possibly didn't feel well?
Otanez 1 inning 0 hits 0 runs 1 walk 0 k's


AA
Baty 1-4, BB, 2 errors
Mauricio 2-5, K, error (5/11 in August)
Meyer 1-5
Hartwig 1 inning 1 hit 0 er 1 walk 2 k's ( It wasn't his cleanest outing (hit and a walk) but Grant Hartwig struck out 2 lowering his era to 1.89 on the season over 27 appearances and his era since signing with the Mets as a UDFA now stands at 2.17)

A+
Ramirez 0-4, 4 k's
Consuegra 0-4, K
Hardy 1 inning 0 hits 0 runs 1 walk 1 k (nice breakout season)


A
Lugo 1-3, BB, 2's (sleeper)
Tilien 1-3, BB, 2 k's
Paz 1-1 3b (has gone from the DSL to A ball in one season. A physical specimen, one concern, for a guy who is considered a plus athlete, they have him 1b/DH quite often.)
ODLS 1-4 2 steals (53)
Ziegler (first appearance in 6 weeks due to biceps tendonitis) 0.2 innings 0 runs 3 walks 1 k (pulled due due to pitch count)
Diaz 6 innings 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 6 k's (My performer of the day)
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even with the slow start  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 9:16 am : link
Alvarez has an .822 OPS in AAA. 18 games, 4 HR, 4 doubles, 15 walks. Average up to .197
ODLS  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:25 am : link
really should be promoted.

He's about to be 23 years old, he's played 122 games in St. Lucie (38 last season), and the concerns about his swing vs. better pitching (Longenhagen) will only be nullified (or deemed accurate) once he... faces better pitching
Kevin Villavicencio  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:28 am : link
isn't "exciting" tools wise, but keep an eye on him as a potential "Ruben Tejada" esque prospect in the next 2-3 years. Strong bat-to-ball skills, considered "heady" and he knows where to be.
Posted this in the gameday thread but worth reposting..  
moze1021 : 8/4/2022 9:28 am : link
I was feeling depressed after seeing Soto's first AB with SD...

But then went to Twitter and saw the video of the Alvarez HR and..

well.. just look for yourself...
Alvarez - ( New Window )
DMM  
Drewcon40 : 8/4/2022 9:30 am : link
Thanks for these updates as always - I really enjoy and lean on your write ups (especially on the draft picks).

What is the story with the catcher the Mets obtained from the Pirates, Michael Perez? Is he someone that could contribute on the MLB roster if they don't want to call up Alvarez?
JBJ DFAed by Red Sox  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 9:31 am : link
Mets have no room, but might be interesting on a minor league deal. Would likely be an upgrade on the AAA OF options
Hopefully  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:31 am : link
today is the day some of 2022 draft picks begin play. Zach Neto (for example) has already played 3 games in the Angels system.
RE: DMM  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:33 am : link
In comment 15771545 Drewcon40 said:
Quote:
Thanks for these updates as always - I really enjoy and lean on your write ups (especially on the draft picks).

What is the story with the catcher the Mets obtained from the Pirates, Michael Perez? Is he someone that could contribute on the MLB roster if they don't want to call up Alvarez?


Perez is glove only, can't hit at all (though he remarkably had a 3 homer game this season). He's about to be 30, 1.75 career hitter (.530 OPS) over 193 games. He's worse than McCann/Nido offensively.
RE: ODLS  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:41 am : link
In comment 15771541 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
really should be promoted.

He's about to be 23 years old, he's played 122 games in St. Lucie (38 last season), and the concerns about his swing vs. better pitching (Longenhagen) will only be nullified (or deemed accurate) once he... faces better pitching


Just checked, he’s 9 months older than the league average so yeah, at this point it should be sink or swim time considering he’s not even considered a “top” talent
RE: JBJ DFAed by Red Sox  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 9:43 am : link
In comment 15771547 KDavies said:
Quote:
Mets have no room, but might be interesting on a minor league deal. Would likely be an upgrade on the AAA OF options


Wouldn’t be surprised to see him retire. OPS+ of 44 over his last 2 seasons
I've been thinking about this  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 9:48 am : link
specifically the people disappointed in the deadline transactions.

The Nationals have now "lost" via various methods from their WS team:
Bryce Harper
Juan Soto
Max Scherzer
Trea Turner
Anthony Rendon

Maybe more and I'm not counting non-core players who they just let walk like Matt Adams.

Is that worth a WS win, knowing now they've got a good shot at hitting rock bottom and in an era where MLB now has a draft lottery?

Yes is ok. Just curious if there is a point where anyone would pass on a WS in favor of building a roster that is more sustainable in the hopes of winning multiple titles.

I tend to lean to the side of get the WS win, at all costs, but curious if that's what most people think. The Nationals (and before them the Marlins might be the best other example) show the cost.
Bryce Harper was on the Phillies  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 9:52 am : link
when the Nationals won the WS
RE: Bryce Harper was on the Phillies  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 9:55 am : link
In comment 15771563 KDavies said:
Quote:
when the Nationals won the WS


you're right. still I'll include him, since he walked for nothing and it's likely part of the same vision that prevented them from extending him.
The Nats are such an odd case....  
Italianju : 8/4/2022 9:55 am : link
i mean even the wilpons would have been hard pressed to let Harper walk and trade away two guys like Turner/Soto cause you wouldnt pay them. Rendon was tricky cause they had to choose between him and strasburg, honestly neither has been worth anything near what they got.

Good to know that with Cohen around the Mets will never have a scenario like this.
the Mets won't have to take the Nationals approach  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 9:59 am : link
as Cohen has money and a commitment to win.

I don't think many have an issue for not getting a Soto. Reality is, Mets likely can't beat the Padres package. Abrams and Gore are former top prospects that have gotten their feet wet at the MLB level. Hassell and Wood are excellent prospects.

The issue is the Mets traded a useable reliever at the deadline, while only getting one back (though they did get May back from injury). Quite frankly, Givens may be pitching the same innings that Holderman was. So that may be close to a wash.

Very happy with what they did re Vogelbach (though would have rather given up minor leaguers), Ruf (although they overpaid), and Naquin. But they are taking a major gamble in trusting this bullpen.

It's a false dichotomy to ask whether the Mets should have gone "all-in" vs. what they did. They could have made 1-2 more bullpen moves that wouldn't come close to going "all-in."
RE: even with the slow start  
nyfootballfan : 8/4/2022 10:01 am : link
In comment 15771540 KDavies said:
Quote:
Alvarez has an .822 OPS in AAA. 18 games, 4 HR, 4 doubles, 15 walks. Average up to .197


saw an insta post where he launched it out of the whole yard.
RE: the Mets won't have to take the Nationals approach  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:08 am : link
In comment 15771572 KDavies said:
Quote:
as Cohen has money and a commitment to win.

I don't think many have an issue for not getting a Soto. Reality is, Mets likely can't beat the Padres package. Abrams and Gore are former top prospects that have gotten their feet wet at the MLB level. Hassell and Wood are excellent prospects.

The issue is the Mets traded a useable reliever at the deadline, while only getting one back (though they did get May back from injury). Quite frankly, Givens may be pitching the same innings that Holderman was. So that may be close to a wash.

Very happy with what they did re Vogelbach (though would have rather given up minor leaguers), Ruf (although they overpaid), and Naquin. But they are taking a major gamble in trusting this bullpen.

It's a false dichotomy to ask whether the Mets should have gone "all-in" vs. what they did. They could have made 1-2 more bullpen moves that wouldn't come close to going "all-in."


Couldn’t have said it better myself. Agree with every word
I will be interested to see what they do with the guys who are due  
Ten Ton Hammer : 8/4/2022 10:10 am : link
for extensions.

There is no reason Nimmo should not be on this team next year, or Diaz, frankly.
RE: I will be interested to see what they do with the guys who are due  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:16 am : link
In comment 15771579 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
for extensions.

There is no reason Nimmo should not be on this team next year, or Diaz, frankly.


Agree on both, obviously Boras is a wild card but Diaz deserves the highest AAV ever for a closer, that's just the way the market works.
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:20 am : link
@mets 10th round pick @Zebatron3000 has been assigned to the FCL Mets. In addition, arguably the DSL Mets top performer Dyron Campos has been promoted to the FCL Mets, joining him will be SS Luis Castillo (no relation) and RHP Candido Cuevas #Mets
Nimmo and Diaz are almost must re-signs for the Mets  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 10:30 am : link
Nimmo's market value will be an interesting one to see. 10 HRs and no SBs this year, so he doesn't have the traditionally sexy stats. Yet he is an incredibly valuable player due to his ability to get on base at the top of the order, as well as his defense. Analytics would value him quite high. He actually has a higher WAR than Alonso thus far (3.2 vs. 3.1)
RE: the Mets won't have to take the Nationals approach  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:34 am : link
In comment 15771572 KDavies said:
Quote:
as Cohen has money and a commitment to win.

I don't think many have an issue for not getting a Soto. Reality is, Mets likely can't beat the Padres package. Abrams and Gore are former top prospects that have gotten their feet wet at the MLB level. Hassell and Wood are excellent prospects.

The issue is the Mets traded a useable reliever at the deadline, while only getting one back (though they did get May back from injury). Quite frankly, Givens may be pitching the same innings that Holderman was. So that may be close to a wash.

Very happy with what they did re Vogelbach (though would have rather given up minor leaguers), Ruf (although they overpaid), and Naquin. But they are taking a major gamble in trusting this bullpen.

It's a false dichotomy to ask whether the Mets should have gone "all-in" vs. what they did. They could have made 1-2 more bullpen moves that wouldn't come close to going "all-in."


I didn't ask if they should have gone all-in vs what they did.

I asked if you would be willing to sell the future for a World Series title.

You can say the Mets won't be in this situation because of Cohen's money and fandom, but until he is in that situation it's impossible to say with certainty - and it's more a theoretical question.

Yeah u need to resign both...  
Italianju : 8/4/2022 10:36 am : link
There are just not a lot of CF options. And despite us being told that at best he would be a serviceable CF he has been damn good. But i still think a marte type deal is fair. The OBP is great, but as stated he doesnt hit HR and he doesnt steal bases so you are really paying for the OBP and the fact that he plays a premium defensive position. But much more then 4/80 and im honestly not sure the value is there. And i dont think that many teams would be willing to pay him more then that.
He's  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:38 am : link
going to get 5 years. Marte got 4 at 33, Castellanos got 5 at 30. I see no realistic scenario where Nimmo has to settle for 4 years.
the Mets haven't won a World Series since 1986  
KDavies : 8/4/2022 10:40 am : link
I was 5, so I don't remember any of it. Most Mets fans would do most anything to get a World Series victory. But nothing they could do guarantees that. Building a consistent playoff contender is the goal.
I like Nimmo  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:42 am : link
but IMO it depends on how confident the Mets are in his health how much I'd be willing to pay him.

he was injured throughout his 20's, it's probably not common for players like him to get healthier in their 30's.

I don't consider him a no-brainer must sign like some of you.

He is also quietly having his worst season of his career. Not a terrible season, but statistically worse than his career numbers (especially with OBP which is where much of his offensive value comes)
RE: the Mets haven't won a World Series since 1986  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:42 am : link
In comment 15771604 KDavies said:
Quote:
I was 5, so I don't remember any of it. Most Mets fans would do most anything to get a World Series victory. But nothing they could do guarantees that. Building a consistent playoff contender is the goal.


Exact same boat. But both can be true. "Don't trade the top names" but also... could have/should have done more, even if it were multiple Givens level BP additions hoping one exceeded expectations.
RE: the Mets haven't won a World Series since 1986  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 10:43 am : link
In comment 15771604 KDavies said:
Quote:
I was 5, so I don't remember any of it. Most Mets fans would do most anything to get a World Series victory. But nothing they could do guarantees that. Building a consistent playoff contender is the goal.


Yep. The best chance to win a World Series is to build a team that consistently contends. The Mets in my lifetime seem to put a contender together once or twice a decade and go back to mediocrity or worse. Maybe they could’ve won in 1999, 2000, 2007 or 2015 (each of those teams was certainly good enough) if they caught a few more breaks, but would’ve been better to make it to the dance more often.
RE: I like Nimmo  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:43 am : link
In comment 15771605 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but IMO it depends on how confident the Mets are in his health how much I'd be willing to pay him.

he was injured throughout his 20's, it's probably not common for players like him to get healthier in their 30's.

I don't consider him a no-brainer must sign like some of you.

He is also quietly having his worst season of his career. Not a terrible season, but statistically worse than his career numbers (especially with OBP which is where much of his offensive value comes)


PJ,
Last season 92 games 3.3 fWAR, this season 96 games 3.3 fWAR. If it's his "worst season" it's marginal. He's on pace for a 4.5-5 fWAR season, he's been their second best player behind Lindor by fWAR
His  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:48 am : link
rankings at the position

fWAR tied for 3rd with Byron Buxton (behind Judge and Trout)
wRC+

wRC+ 5th (behind Judge, Trout, Buxton, Julio Rodriguez)

OBP 3rd behind Judge and Trout

OAA 3rd behind Straw and Julio Rodriguez

DRS 9th
Any way we can look at comps  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 10:48 am : link
for players signed to term deals in their 30s who draw most of their WAR from defensive value in CF? Seems like a risky move.

Still think we should sign him. With Cohen, we need to bring back our best players even if the deals aren’t likely to end well. I have a feeling with the QO, we’ll find the market for Nimmo quite reasonable.
His fWAR  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:49 am : link
is what it is because of his DEF rating, which I'm not a huge believer in.

His offensive stats are down from last year across the board.

His OBP is down 50 points from last year. For your leadoff hitter that is a big deal.

If you want to just look at his fWAR and give him a contract go ahead. I would choose to look at more tangible results/expectations.
He's  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:50 am : link
also 3rd in average (Judge/Trout)

2nd in runs (Judge)

9th in slugging

3rd best K% (Straw/Mullins)

He's a top 5 CF in baseball by any reasonable measure
RE: His fWAR  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:51 am : link
In comment 15771615 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
is what it is because of his DEF rating, which I'm not a huge believer in.

His offensive stats are down from last year across the board.

His OBP is down 50 points from last year. For your leadoff hitter that is a big deal.

If you want to just look at his fWAR and give him a contract go ahead. I would choose to look at more tangible results/expectations.


PJ,
I've posted his rankings vs. other CF's, he's near the top of the league in multiple key categories even if you ignore defense
And  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:52 am : link
while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.
RE: And  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 10:55 am : link
In comment 15771620 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.


You can love what Nimmo is doing this year and question giving him 6years/$175M. I think the Mets should bring him back, but it’s worth taking a look at how players like him project through their 30s.
Even  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:55 am : link
going back to last year... he's 5th in DRS, 5th in OAA, 4th best defensive CF in baseball over the past 2 seasons using fangraphs overall defensive rating as well behind Straw, Taylor and Bader. All 3 of those guys are considered "elite" defensive CFers.
RE: RE: And  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:56 am : link
In comment 15771622 Metnut said:
Quote:
In comment 15771620 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.



You can love what Nimmo is doing this year and question giving him 6years/$175M. I think the Mets should bring him back, but it’s worth taking a look at how players like him project through their 30s.


Where did 6 for 175 come from? Not from me. Castellanos got 5 years 100. I expect Nimmo to get something in the neighborhood of 5 for 110-120
RE: And  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:57 am : link
In comment 15771620 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.


Ok, what did i say that was wrong?

A big part of ability is availability.

I will reiterate what I said and I stand by it:

"I like Nimmo but IMO it depends on how confident the Mets are in his health how much I'd be willing to pay him.

he was injured throughout his 20's, it's probably not common for players like him to get healthier in their 30's.

I don't consider him a no-brainer must sign like some of you."
RE: RE: RE: And  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 10:57 am : link
In comment 15771624 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15771622 Metnut said:


Quote:


In comment 15771620 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


while I'm not looking to argue, you can really say you've watched the Mets and not come away impressed with how good Nimmo has been in CF? Almost everybody is raving about his defensive play this year, with matches up with the numbers.



You can love what Nimmo is doing this year and question giving him 6years/$175M. I think the Mets should bring him back, but it’s worth taking a look at how players like him project through their 30s.



Where did 6 for 175 come from? Not from me. Castellanos got 5 years 100. I expect Nimmo to get something in the neighborhood of 5 for 110-120


that does not sound like top 5 OFer in the game numbers to me.
5yr/$110M and I’d sign it now  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 10:59 am : link
I suspect that’s what his deal comes to, but it’s possible his market blows up, especially if he finishes strong and has a big postseason. Dan, you comped him to Judge and Buxton above and Boras will have the same data.
Brandon  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 10:59 am : link
Nimmo is getting nowhere near 29.1 per season, that's such an outlandish number it's not even worth considering. There are 2 CF in baseball who make that much. Mike Trout and George Springer. Nobody else even makes 20 (Judge obviously will). 6 years 175 would make Brandon Nimmo the 16th highest paid player in baseball by AAV.
Anyway, I’ll bow out of this.  
Metnut : 8/4/2022 11:00 am : link
Nimmo is the man and I hope we keep him. 5 years and $20-$22M AAV would be my hope. Would get dicey if term and AAV go much beyond that.
?  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:00 am : link
Top 5 OF? Who said that? Top 5 CF, and yeah it does. The top 5 paid CF's in baseball this season make

37.1 Mike Trout
29.6 George Springer
19 million Aaron Judge
17 Cody Bellinger
12.3 million Kevin Kiermier
i think 5 for 110 is prolly where he ends up...  
Italianju : 8/4/2022 11:02 am : link
and i can live with it. It can easily be a bad deal though, i mean a guy who has had issues staying on the field in his 20's will now be in his 30's. But part of the reason why he is so highly ranked amongst CF is because there arent a lot of good ones. Which will increase his value to other teams. Especially with how good his defense has been, i mean watching him everyday i feel like he should be considered for the damn GG.
Nimmo's fangraphs  
pjcas18 : 8/4/2022 11:04 am : link
value is over $26M today, almost $27M. And if he hits the fWAR number you cited his fangraphs value would probably be around $30M

The Mets  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:06 am : link
also do not have any realistic internal options (yeah they can move Marte at 34, a guy who has already shown signs of needing rest/dinged in RF) and sign a corner here are the top OF FA's

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
Joey Gallo, New York Yankees
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners
Michael Brantley, Houston Astros

Enrique Hernandez, Boston Red Sox

Those are the BEST FA OF's for this season
RE: Nimmo's fangraphs  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:10 am : link
In comment 15771637 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
value is over $26M today, almost $27M. And if he hits the fWAR number you cited his fangraphs value would probably be around $30M


#1 That implies he's certainly a top level player
#2 Players don't get their "fangraphs value". Jose Ramirez has been worth 90 million dollars since opening day last season and over 40 million now 5 times. Lindor was "worth" 34 million last season and "everybody" was disappointed with his season (including himself). Lindor has been "worth" 40+ million 5 times in his career, did anybody expect him to get 40+ million per season?
Aaron Judge  
DanMetroMan : 8/4/2022 11:11 am : link
2022 "worth" 53.5 million, 2021 43 million. Does anybody expect Judge to get 50 million per?
The Mets felt top prospects were too much to trade for rentals  
Snablats : 8/4/2022 11:12 am : link
but they had nothing to trade behind those top prospects

So they are hoping they have enough to win it all this season while burning another year off the careers of Scherzer and deGrom - then hoping they can sign deGrom again

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