for display only
Big Blue Interactive The Corner Forum  
Back to the Corner

Archived Thread

Fantasy Football - 8/15 Thread

pjcas18 : 8/15/2022 11:13 am
just running some mock drafts curious about people thoughts.

My league is a keeper league. I am keeping Jonathan Taylor (4th round) and Jaylen Waddle (9th round). I traded away my 5th, 6th and 7th round picks last year, and I have have 4 10th round picks. So I have some work to do.

I pick 12th as league champ. League is PPR and 6 pts per passing TD, bonuses for long (40+ yd) TD's. We have two flex (WR/RB/TE) spots.

So, at 12/13th I almost always see some combination of:

Aaron Jones
Saquon Barkley
sometimes DeAndre Swift
Chubb
Kamara
Mike Evans
Keenan Allen

Knowing I have Taylor and Waddle, and then just 3 picks until the 8th round, who would you target at 12/13 and 36?

Many times I select Jones and Barkley and my RB's are awesome, and in the 3rd I get Dionte Johnson or DK Metcalf.

Anyone have any opinions on this?

Would you do something like Jones, Barkley, and DJ?

My core would be:

RB: Taylor
RB: Jones
WR: Waddle
WR: Johnson
Flex: Barkley
Flex:
TE:

Obviously I have no guarantee the draft falls this way, but I think the top 10 are something like:

McCaffrey
Ekeler
Harris
Kupp
Cook
Mixon
Henry
Adams
Kelce
Lamb
Give me Kamara and Swift.  
DCGMan : 8/15/2022 12:20 pm : link
I agree with your RB-RB strategy in 1-2. There is far better WR value in rounds 3-4 and 10 in most of the mocks I've done. You may want to prioritize late round RB handcuffs with your lack of mid-round picks.

Kamara's ADP was lower for a few reasons one of which is his legal situation. That looks like it won't be resolved until the offseason. His ADP is now moving up. I would draft him with one of your first two picks even with Jameis at QB and no more Payton. Also, Ingram is a nice handcuff if Kamara does get suspended, and you can pick him up late.

I would take Swift with your other pick. He has health concerns but is a young, explosive back with major PPR value out of the backfield. Sadly, I trust the Lions offense over the Giants and Browns at this point.

I like Chubb but am staying away from the Browns until further notice. Maybe he's a high floor guy and that's what you're looking for in a RB3. His ceiling seems limited with Brissett. Who knows what Watson will look like after 1.5 years away? Maybe I would draft Hunt in the later rounds assuming Cleveland will play from behind this season.

Sounds like Saquon's explosiveness is back with an improved line when healthy, but do we have enough of a passing game to prevent defenses from keying in on the run? Training camp reports haven't been positive. He's too low ceiling for my taste in rounds 1-2.

I do see some value with Jones in a PPR, but if I pick Jones I would want to handcuff and pick Dillon 1-2 rounds earlier than his ADP. You don't have those middle round picks. Jones/Dillon is too much of a timeshare for me to take Jones in 1-2, unless you believe Jones will be a reception machine without a clear WR1 in Green Bay.

What’s your plan for QB?  
UConn4523 : 8/15/2022 12:25 pm : link
I don’t think I’d wait any later than 36 on that. I think Lamar Jackson is in for a bounce back year so I like his upside compared to his ADP. Unless he’s being kept I’d consider him.
RE: What’s your plan for QB?  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2022 12:32 pm : link
In comment 15781290 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
I don’t think I’d wait any later than 36 on that. I think Lamar Jackson is in for a bounce back year so I like his upside compared to his ADP. Unless he’s being kept I’d consider him.


I'm debating that too.

I either get Lamar Jackson at 36 or someone like Prescott at 85 or Trey Lance with one of my 10th round picks.

It's basically which one of these (or comparable) duos I prefer
Dionte Johnson and Dak
Lamar Jackson and Russell Gage

Pjcas  
GNewGiants : 8/15/2022 12:45 pm : link
What QBs are being kept?
value system is best  
Rod in St Cloud : 8/15/2022 1:03 pm : link
I don't know your pt system or how many of each starter, but here's how you do it. Let's say you have 12 starters at TE, and you look up the projected pts for each of those 12. Let's say Kelce is projected for 200 pts and the 12 best TE is listed for 110 pts. That makes Kelce's value 90 pts in comparison to the worst starter. Now do the same thing for your RBs and WRs and QBs. Using that method you can decide who is the overall best value to take. In the long run, you have to score more pts than the other teams. The best method is to go by value rather than rankings. It's mathematical versus the consensus opinion.
My general thoughts on the player pool this year.  
Giantfan in skinland : 8/15/2022 1:04 pm : link
QB - If the timing works, I'll take the end of the tier that has Mahomes, Kyler, Hurts, or Jackson. If not, there's no rush. Then I'm pivoting to one of (maybe even the last of) Russ, Dak, Lance, Stafford, Burrow, Rodgers. There's just such an opportunity for a discount on these guys (who generally rank 7-13ish so no reason not to be the last guy to take a QB).

RB - That middle area of the draft this year is stronger than normal at RB. It's hard to pass up guys like Saquon, Kamara, Swift, Jones (who I do like to be a volume hog even in a split with 2nd best player on that offense, Dillon), Fournette, and Conner all sitting there as options for RB2/Flex. I think I take a combo of that group and don't look back.

WR - Normally, I think the dead-zone is at RB. But this year, it very much feels to me like it's at WR. I love WRs 1-9 (for me the end of that is Lamb, Evans, Tyreek) and then there's a group of like 20-25 guys who feel very interchangeable to me (maybe one or two that I like a bit more, but not rock solid no question studs like the first 9). Then starting with Michael Thomas around WR30, there's a group of WRs that I really like. Juju, ASB, Aiyuk, Devonta Smith, London, Toney, Thielen, Renfrow, and Chirstian Kirk. In combo with a strong RB group...I think you should be able to make that work nicely.

TE - As compared to Qb, I really don't want to miss on the higher up TEs. Kelce, Pitts, and Andrews feel like the difference makers at the position to me, maybe Waller (a lot of mouths to feed there). Shultz is a floor play if you don't have to overdraft him.
RE: Pjcas  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2022 1:07 pm : link
In comment 15781314 GNewGiants said:
Quote:
What QBs are being kept?


Only Herbert
Jackson at 36 is effectively  
UConn4523 : 8/15/2022 1:08 pm : link
a playoff guarantee if he has a bounce-back year. I wonder if his contract gets done before the draft, that will change things a bit for some people.
agree on the above at WR  
UConn4523 : 8/15/2022 1:13 pm : link
I've always been a big fan of 2 WR's early and depending on my slot, I may go back to back at WR in the first two rounds if the opportunity presents itself. Too many 1st round RB injuries, something like 40% of the RB's taken the past few years have missed more than a game.
I would take  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2022 1:30 pm : link
2 WR's or 2 RB's or 1 of each based on who is the best value when I pick.

I don't like to force anything.

This year, looking at our keepers (way more WR's kept) at 12/13 the value is in RBs (based on mocks)

If 12/13 the following are available:

Swift
Aaron Jones
Kamara
Chubb
Allen
Hill
Evans

I'm likely taking two RB's.

The main fly in the ointment is I have Jonathan Taylor as a keeper (and Waddle).

RE: RE: Pjcas  
GNewGiants : 8/15/2022 1:34 pm : link
In comment 15781340 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15781314 GNewGiants said:


Quote:


What QBs are being kept?



Only Herbert


I know I will be the only one who will tell you this. But I’d take Josh Allen with one of your first two picks. I know it sounds silly. But I think he may break some records this year.

I’d go swift and Allen. I know it leaves you thin at WR. But I rather have the number 1 QB.
i'm talking strictly re-draft  
UConn4523 : 8/15/2022 1:36 pm : link
too many outside factors in keeper leagues. While I won't force anything, sticking to my strategy to break a tie is something I will do. If I'm picking #1 I'm definitely not going WR/WR, for example, but it will come into play at pick 4 or 5.
RE: Jackson at 36 is effectively  
GNewGiants : 8/15/2022 1:37 pm : link
In comment 15781341 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
a playoff guarantee if he has a bounce-back year. I wonder if his contract gets done before the draft, that will change things a bit for some people.


My big worry about Lamar is injury. He had a pretty decent one last year and you don’t know if he will try to run less to ensure he stays healthy. He only had 2 TDs rushing last year (I know that probably won’t be the norm.)

But sometimes a player may want to ensure his health. And again , Lamar can go back to what he does best and be a great fantasy player.
absolutely  
UConn4523 : 8/15/2022 1:41 pm : link
he's a health risk but the upside is so big compared to his ADP. I'm eyeing him in late round 3/early rd 4 in my redraft and I'll just grab a 2nd qB in the 7th or 8th round just in case (Stafford/Lance/Carr/Cousins).
RE: I would take  
robbieballs2003 : 8/15/2022 1:46 pm : link
In comment 15781370 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
2 WR's or 2 RB's or 1 of each based on who is the best value when I pick.

I don't like to force anything.

This year, looking at our keepers (way more WR's kept) at 12/13 the value is in RBs (based on mocks)

If 12/13 the following are available:

Swift
Aaron Jones
Kamara
Chubb
Allen
Hill
Evans

I'm likely taking two RB's.

The main fly in the ointment is I have Jonathan Taylor as a keeper (and Waddle).


Phew, I thought you were gonna go K and D.



Just kidding.
RE: absolutely  
GNewGiants : 8/15/2022 1:50 pm : link
In comment 15781391 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
he's a health risk but the upside is so big compared to his ADP. I'm eyeing him in late round 3/early rd 4 in my redraft and I'll just grab a 2nd qB in the 7th or 8th round just in case (Stafford/Lance/Carr/Cousins).


That’s a good strategy. I have no idea where I want Josh Allen. I am thinking he’s going over a combined 50 TDs this year.
although looking at it  
UConn4523 : 8/15/2022 1:53 pm : link
Wilson's ADP (78) is really low. He's going to a much better offense - may have lower yards but more TD potential. We'll see how things go the next few weeks but I'm definitely prioritizing QB and don't mind over drafting a bit.
RE: RE: I would take  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2022 1:55 pm : link
In comment 15781399 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
In comment 15781370 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


2 WR's or 2 RB's or 1 of each based on who is the best value when I pick.

I don't like to force anything.

This year, looking at our keepers (way more WR's kept) at 12/13 the value is in RBs (based on mocks)

If 12/13 the following are available:

Swift
Aaron Jones
Kamara
Chubb
Allen
Hill
Evans

I'm likely taking two RB's.

The main fly in the ointment is I have Jonathan Taylor as a keeper (and Waddle).




Phew, I thought you were gonna go K and D.



Just kidding.


There is always one guy who tries to get the jump on everyone else and take a K and D a few rounds too early.

Often times I don't draft a kicker. A couple years ago I got Younghoe Koo off waivers before the season and he was money.

I kept him rostered even through his bye week which is unheard of for me.

RE: RE: RE: Pjcas  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2022 2:14 pm : link
In comment 15781374 GNewGiants said:
Quote:
In comment 15781340 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 15781314 GNewGiants said:


Quote:


What QBs are being kept?



Only Herbert



I know I will be the only one who will tell you this. But I’d take Josh Allen with one of your first two picks. I know it sounds silly. But I think he may break some records this year.

I’d go swift and Allen. I know it leaves you thin at WR. But I rather have the number 1 QB.


Josh Allen is consistently picked before 12 in all the mocks I do.

Here is the top 10 most often (in some order)

McCaffrey
Ekeler
Kupp
Cook
Harris
Henry
Allen
Mixon
Adams
Kelce

11 fluctuates between Swift, Jones, Barkley, Kamara, and Lamb

but I've done hundreds of mocks and I can almost always get two out of those players.
I think it's Jones if he's there  
NoGainDayne : 8/15/2022 2:31 pm : link
Lamb being my second choice but honestly for me I've never gone wrong with picking two RBs out of my first 3 picks. My worst seasons have always been deviating from that. I don't mind a strong 3rd or just a filler of risk / reward backs later but I feel like staying disciplined to the 2/3 back rule has served me well.
I try to grab at least 2 RBs and 2 WRs before going QB  
Jimmy Googs : 8/15/2022 2:36 pm : link
Then go right back to it with solid reserves/flex options at those positions.

1-2 of the top options at QB intrigue me, but I can get over that quickly...
Normally I do too  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2022 2:51 pm : link
(look for 2 RB and 2 WR) before looking outside those two.

exceptions to that would be if Kelce were available at my spot or a QB like Allen, Herbert or maybe Mahomes.
For me I think the difference is I can always  
NoGainDayne : 8/15/2022 3:00 pm : link
grab emerging WRs towards the back of the draft / early in the season. Vs. RBs I'm pretty much hoping for an injury or waiver luck.

TE's and QB's are opportunistic strike players. If value is falling I make space for them within the 2/3 first pick rule. I don't know maybe I can just spot WRs earlier or I'll fill most of my bench with risk / reward WRs (as opposed to RBs I need an injury for) but I never feel pressed for WRs or feel like I don't have a good one to start or extra ones to start.
I always try to stay away from Aaron Jones  
GNewGiants : 8/15/2022 3:03 pm : link
Cause Dillon seems to vulture carries and goal line touches. I wouldn’t take him unless it’s round 3 or later.
RE: I always try to stay away from Aaron Jones  
pjcas18 : 8/15/2022 3:14 pm : link
In comment 15781463 GNewGiants said:
Quote:
Cause Dillon seems to vulture carries and goal line touches. I wouldn’t take him unless it’s round 3 or later.


His ADP is 16.1, he's not going to be available in the 3rd or later. He had 10 TD's last year.
...  
26.2 : 8/15/2022 3:19 pm : link
I'm inheriting a team where I can keep one player from the previous owners roster. Here are my best options:

Josh Allen (round 9)
Deebo (round 10)
Jones scores a fair amount of longer touchdowns  
NoGainDayne : 8/15/2022 3:22 pm : link
and besides, for an RB I would say team scores is much more important.

The Packers will score with Rodgers at QB and IMO they will lean on the running game more with less talent at receiver.

Plenty of points to go around.
RE: RE: I always try to stay away from Aaron Jones  
GNewGiants : 8/15/2022 3:28 pm : link
In comment 15781470 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15781463 GNewGiants said:


Quote:


Cause Dillon seems to vulture carries and goal line touches. I wouldn’t take him unless it’s round 3 or later.



His ADP is 16.1, he's not going to be available in the 3rd or later. He had 10 TD's last year.


I get it. And I’m not saying he’s bad. I just wish he was the guy.

Anyone else like Montgomery this year? I think he could be a steal. His volume should be high, and catches passes too.
RE: ...  
GNewGiants : 8/15/2022 3:29 pm : link
In comment 15781473 26.2 said:
Quote:
I'm inheriting a team where I can keep one player from the previous owners roster. Here are my best options:

Josh Allen (round 9)
Deebo (round 10)


Man that’s really difficult but as much as I love Allen this year- getting Deebo in the 10th is just insane.
Had a draft  
Carl in CT : 8/15/2022 8:57 pm : link
First 9 picks were RB. If that happens be prepared.
RE: Had a draft  
GNewGiants : 8/15/2022 9:09 pm : link
In comment 15781788 Carl in CT said:
Quote:
First 9 picks were RB. If that happens be prepared.


If it’s a 10 team league… I’ll be more than happy with Kupp/Jefferson.
RE: I always try to stay away from Aaron Jones  
djm : 8/15/2022 10:19 pm : link
In comment 15781463 GNewGiants said:
Quote:
Cause Dillon seems to vulture carries and goal line touches. I wouldn’t take him unless it’s round 3 or later.


In ppr leagues Jones is basically top 5 two years running. You’re staying away from a very good ff rb.
RE: RE: I always try to stay away from Aaron Jones  
GNewGiants : 8/16/2022 9:14 am : link
In comment 15781848 djm said:
Quote:
In comment 15781463 GNewGiants said:


Quote:


Cause Dillon seems to vulture carries and goal line touches. I wouldn’t take him unless it’s round 3 or later.



In ppr leagues Jones is basically top 5 two years running. You’re staying away from a very good ff rb.


I didn’t realize Jones was top 5 last year.
Did my draft last night (Early I know,it's what people in the  
TheMick7 : 8/16/2022 10:00 am : link
league want) Keeper League(Up to 4 Keepers),10 teams 1/2 PPR.I had an extra 1st & 2 extra 3's from trades last year! My draft/roster:

QB-Herbert(R7-K),Rodgers(8)

RB-Chubbs(1),Barkley(2),Etienne(3),M. Sanders(6),Stevenson(10)

WR-Kupp(3-K),Diggs(5-K),K.Allen(4-K),Metcalf(3),Toney(12),W.Robinson(16)

TE-Kelce(1),Knox(9)

D-Bills(10),Colts(15)

K-Bass(14)
RE: Had a draft  
UConn4523 : 8/16/2022 10:01 am : link
In comment 15781788 Carl in CT said:
Quote:
First 9 picks were RB. If that happens be prepared.


I'd love that drafting 10th. Of those 9 RB's 4 or 5 will have down years or get hurt and miss several games, its a virtual lock. You should never ride the end of a run in fantasy, you should start a new one and create value for yourself.
RE: Did my draft last night (Early I know,it's what people in the  
GNewGiants : 8/16/2022 10:34 am : link
In comment 15782061 TheMick7 said:
Quote:
league want) Keeper League(Up to 4 Keepers),10 teams 1/2 PPR.I had an extra 1st & 2 extra 3's from trades last year! My draft/roster:

QB-Herbert(R7-K),Rodgers(8)

RB-Chubbs(1),Barkley(2),Etienne(3),M. Sanders(6),Stevenson(10)

WR-Kupp(3-K),Diggs(5-K),K.Allen(4-K),Metcalf(3),Toney(12),W.Robinson(16)

TE-Kelce(1),Knox(9)

D-Bills(10),Colts(15)

K-Bass(14)


If your RBs can produce at a decent level… great squad.
RE: Did my draft last night (Early I know,it's what people in the  
pjcas18 : 8/16/2022 10:42 am : link
In comment 15782061 TheMick7 said:
Quote:
league want) Keeper League(Up to 4 Keepers),10 teams 1/2 PPR.I had an extra 1st & 2 extra 3's from trades last year! My draft/roster:

QB-Herbert(R7-K),Rodgers(8)

RB-Chubbs(1),Barkley(2),Etienne(3),M. Sanders(6),Stevenson(10)

WR-Kupp(3-K),Diggs(5-K),K.Allen(4-K),Metcalf(3),Toney(12),W.Robinson(16)

TE-Kelce(1),Knox(9)

D-Bills(10),Colts(15)

K-Bass(14)


12 team? you should cruise into the playoffs and then who knows, but that is a ridiculous slate of keepers.

I'd maybe have gone RB/RB with the two 1sts, depending who else was there and instead of Kelce in the 1st and Barkley in the 2nd get a different RB in the 1st and Waller in the 2nd (for example).

but either way, if you have any health luck at all this team will be hard to beat.
RE: RE: Did my draft last night (Early I know,it's what people in the  
TheMick7 : 8/16/2022 11:13 am : link
In comment 15782117 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 15782061 TheMick7 said:


Quote:


league want) Keeper League(Up to 4 Keepers),10 teams 1/2 PPR.I had an extra 1st & 2 extra 3's from trades last year! My draft/roster:

QB-Herbert(R7-K),Rodgers(8)

RB-Chubbs(1),Barkley(2),Etienne(3),M. Sanders(6),Stevenson(10)

WR-Kupp(3-K),Diggs(5-K),K.Allen(4-K),Metcalf(3),Toney(12),W.Robinson(16)

TE-Kelce(1),Knox(9)

D-Bills(10),Colts(15)

K-Bass(14)



12 team? you should cruise into the playoffs and then who knows, but that is a ridiculous slate of keepers.

I'd maybe have gone RB/RB with the two 1sts, depending who else was there and instead of Kelce in the 1st and Barkley in the 2nd get a different RB in the 1st and Waller in the 2nd (for example).

but either way, if you have any health luck at all this team will be hard to beat.


It's a 10 team legue. Reason I went the way I did 1/2 was I had the 6th pick (Chubb,Mixon taken right in front of me),then the 7th took Fournette,the 8th,10th & 1st of the second were all keepers,so I had the 9th & 2nd back to back. You can't keep any of your 1st rounders,so that's why I took Kelce in the 1st & Saquan in the 2nd. If he has a ballsy season,I can make him a keeper next year. As far as what backs to take,After Mixon,I took the next best 2,as between keepers & the five picks ahead of me in the first(McCaffrey,Henry,Cook,Harris,Mixon) top tier RBs were at a minimum!I had 3 3rds,but the first went for Kupp,giving me the 9th & 10th picks in the 3rd. Then,no picks in the 4th,5th,7th (keepers),so I had to draft accordingly!
10 team is a little  
pjcas18 : 8/16/2022 11:15 am : link
different - every team is pretty much good in 10-team, but still that team should be favored.
RE: 10 team is a little  
TheMick7 : 8/16/2022 11:22 am : link
In comment 15782146 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
different - every team is pretty much good in 10-team, but still that team should be favored.


Agree about the 10 team league. Yahoo says I should finish 16-1 when evaluating my draft/roster. Don't think that's going to happen, but I appreciated the encouragement! lol
RE: Did my draft last night (Early I know,it's what people in the  
NYGgolfer : 8/16/2022 11:52 am : link
In comment 15782061 TheMick7 said:
Quote:
league want) Keeper League(Up to 4 Keepers),10 teams 1/2 PPR.I had an extra 1st & 2 extra 3's from trades last year! My draft/roster:

QB-Herbert(R7-K),Rodgers(8)

RB-Chubbs(1),Barkley(2),Etienne(3),M. Sanders(6),Stevenson(10)

WR-Kupp(3-K),Diggs(5-K),K.Allen(4-K),Metcalf(3),Toney(12),W.Robinson(16)

TE-Kelce(1),Knox(9)

D-Bills(10),Colts(15)

K-Bass(14)


Pretty solid team. Interesting league where Kelce wasn't a Keeper with 40 Keepers.
Back to the Corner