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NFT: Mets at Braves Game 3. Mad Max and Baty

ZGiants98 : 8/17/2022 5:46 pm
Mets Lineup

CF Brandon Nimmo
RF Starling Marte
SS Francisco Lindor
1B Pete Alonso
DH Daniel Vogelbach
2B Jeff McNeil
LF Mark Canha
3B Brett Baty
C James McCann

RHP Max Scherzer

Braves Lineup

RF Acuña Jr.
SS Swanson
3B Riley
1B Olson
DH Ozuna
C Contreras
CF Harris II
2B Grissom
LF Grossman

RHP Jake Odorizzi

Time for the bats to wake up. Scherzer brings a different kind of energy to things. Will be great to get a look at Baty tonight. Probably, the best lineup tonight we've sported all year, even discounting Baty's expectations. Big game! LFGM!
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per DiComo twitter...  
moze1021 : 8/18/2022 7:53 am : link
Baty's fielders choice to Swanson at >113 MPH was:

hardest hit ball by a Mets lefty hitter vs lefty pitcher in 6 years

hardest hit ball by any Mets left handed hitter since 2020

So in 1 game he hit a ball harder than Lindor, Conforto, Vogey, Nimmo, Escobar, Naquin, etc, etc
I am no talent scout  
Chris684 : 8/18/2022 8:48 am : link
and all I can go off of as an ordinary fan is the eye test but Baty passed that with flying colors for me last night.

It is really exciting to think about the additions of Baty and eventually Alvarez.
RE: Buck doesn't do anything quickly.  
KDavies : 8/18/2022 8:56 am : link
In comment 15783976 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
I wouldn't expect Baty to take the job from Escobar even if he's OPSing 1.000. Buck seems to like his veterans.


Wouldn't be surprised to see it a platoon. I have a feeling Baty doesn't go back down. The kid can hit.

Curious to see if he gets the start vs. Fried today
RE: RE: Buck doesn't do anything quickly.  
Section331 : 8/18/2022 9:14 am : link
In comment 15784017 KDavies said:
Quote:

Wouldn't be surprised to see it a platoon. I have a feeling Baty doesn't go back down. The kid can hit.

Curious to see if he gets the start vs. Fried today


That definitely makes sense. I think even Buck knows he can't sit the kid. In a platoon, Baty will still get the majority of AB's.
RE: per DiComo twitter...  
speedywheels : 8/18/2022 10:05 am : link
In comment 15783988 moze1021 said:
Quote:
Baty's fielders choice to Swanson at >113 MPH was:

hardest hit ball by a Mets lefty hitter vs lefty pitcher in 6 years

hardest hit ball by any Mets left handed hitter since 2020

So in 1 game he hit a ball harder than Lindor, Conforto, Vogey, Nimmo, Escobar, Naquin, etc, etc


We’ll to be fair- Lindor and Escobar don’t bat LH vs a lefty pitcher (Escobar’s AB the other day notwithstanding- he was hurt and could only bat LH)
RE: per DiComo twitter...  
speedywheels : 8/18/2022 10:06 am : link
In comment 15783988 moze1021 said:
Quote:
Baty's fielders choice to Swanson at >113 MPH was:

hardest hit ball by a Mets lefty hitter vs lefty pitcher in 6 years

hardest hit ball by any Mets left handed hitter since 2020

So in 1 game he hit a ball harder than Lindor, Conforto, Vogey, Nimmo, Escobar, Naquin, etc, etc


But yes your general point holds
here was the contact May allowed in the 9th yesterday per statcast  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 10:26 am : link
Contreras single, 107 mph, xba .720
Harris single, 102 mpg, xba .630
Girsson single, 88 mph, xba .700
Acuna flyout, 100 mph, xbh .500 (367 feet)

they were very lucky to survive his inning yesterday, he is just way too prone to giving up loud contact.

speaking of loud contact, mccann had 3 hard hit (95 mph+) balls last night but nothing to show for it. his expected batting average is like 75 higher than his actual and his expected slg% is almost 200 points higher than his actual. if his luck could turn that would be a boost to the bottom of the order.
RE: RE: per DiComo twitter...  
moze1021 : 8/18/2022 11:10 am : link
In comment 15784087 speedywheels said:
Quote:
In comment 15783988 moze1021 said:


Quote:


Baty's fielders choice to Swanson at >113 MPH was:

hardest hit ball by a Mets lefty hitter vs lefty pitcher in 6 years

hardest hit ball by any Mets left handed hitter since 2020

So in 1 game he hit a ball harder than Lindor, Conforto, Vogey, Nimmo, Escobar, Naquin, etc, etc



But yes your general point holds


I should have said "since 2020"
RE: here was the contact May allowed in the 9th yesterday per statcast  
Metnut : 8/18/2022 11:19 am : link
In comment 15784118 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Contreras single, 107 mph, xba .720
Harris single, 102 mpg, xba .630
Girsson single, 88 mph, xba .700
Acuna flyout, 100 mph, xbh .500 (367 feet)

they were very lucky to survive his inning yesterday, he is just way too prone to giving up loud contact.

speaking of loud contact, mccann had 3 hard hit (95 mph+) balls last night but nothing to show for it. his expected batting average is like 75 higher than his actual and his expected slg% is almost 200 points higher than his actual. if his luck could turn that would be a boost to the bottom of the order.


May has been awful all year and should not be used in high leverage situations. He’s actually been “lucky” this year. FIP over 5. Terrible.
RE: RE: here was the contact May allowed in the 9th yesterday per statcast  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 11:23 am : link
In comment 15784194 Metnut said:
Quote:
In comment 15784118 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


Contreras single, 107 mph, xba .720
Harris single, 102 mpg, xba .630
Girsson single, 88 mph, xba .700
Acuna flyout, 100 mph, xbh .500 (367 feet)

they were very lucky to survive his inning yesterday, he is just way too prone to giving up loud contact.

speaking of loud contact, mccann had 3 hard hit (95 mph+) balls last night but nothing to show for it. his expected batting average is like 75 higher than his actual and his expected slg% is almost 200 points higher than his actual. if his luck could turn that would be a boost to the bottom of the order.



May has been awful all year and should not be used in high leverage situations. He’s actually been “lucky” this year. FIP over 5. Terrible.


agreed. other than Diaz this BP is tough to watch. they need to start brainstorming the best potential SP --> RP conversion, not just for depth but to hopefully find someone who can handle some late game work. Megill is probably going to be first up but Carrasco should be on that list too since he likely won't get back with enough time to stretch out into a SP. Peterson and Luchesi 2 other options. Gotta find 1 that works in September.
Might be time to try Trevor Williams  
moze1021 : 8/18/2022 11:25 am : link
in some high leverage situations...

but the Cookie/Walker injuries making that tough
..  
Named Later : 8/18/2022 11:43 am : link
Re : Baty's Fielding ?

Did Brett have any tough fielding chances last night ? Wondering if the f'ing Braves gave him any adventures ?

It was great to see the Kid's family in the stands. That was quite a moment.

Nothing  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 11:48 am : link
particularly "tough" but he made a nice play on a ball he's had some trouble with in the minors.
RE: ..  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 11:49 am : link
In comment 15784215 Named Later said:
Quote:
Re : Baty's Fielding ?

Did Brett have any tough fielding chances last night ? Wondering if the f'ing Braves gave him any adventures ?

It was great to see the Kid's family in the stands. That was quite a moment.


nothing too tough but he played a clean game. started the overturned DP that would have gotten ottavino out of the 7th pretty well. that's the kind of play you worry about not having a steady vet because the difference between a fraction of a second can literally be 3 runs (as it ended up being though through no fault of his).

he has a very Alec Bohm look at 3rd since he's so lanky so he i dont think he'll ever look smooth or explosive athletically like smaller players can. but when guillorme gets back they can obviously put him in late game as an extra precaution.
He did start it nicely...  
moze1021 : 8/18/2022 11:55 am : link
but I still contend if Guillorme starts it, he would have been quicker and they would have turned it.

Not a knock on Baty... just saying those are exactly the kind of plays that the metrics might not pick up where an elite defender separates from the pack.

Again, not a knock on Baty, just praise for LG
RE: ..  
Section331 : 8/18/2022 12:04 pm : link
In comment 15784215 Named Later said:
Quote:
Re : Baty's Fielding ?

Did Brett have any tough fielding chances last night ? Wondering if the f'ing Braves gave him any adventures ?

It was great to see the Kid's family in the stands. That was quite a moment.


He looked a little tentative throwing, like he didn’t want to let it loose. Totally understandable, given it’s his first MLB game. As Keith pointed out, both George Brett and Mike Schmidt came up with defensive concerns and went on to be GG-level 3B’s. Not comparing Baty to 2 of the greatest to ever grace the hot corner, but he can work to become a plus 3B.
RE: He did start it nicely...  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 12:05 pm : link
In comment 15784226 moze1021 said:
Quote:
but I still contend if Guillorme starts it, he would have been quicker and they would have turned it.

Not a knock on Baty... just saying those are exactly the kind of plays that the metrics might not pick up where an elite defender separates from the pack.

Again, not a knock on Baty, just praise for LG


no disagreement re guillorme but i dont think escobar does it any better and that's the better baseline to measure baty against.

end of game defense makes all the difference (as evidenced by Marte's catch on a literal 50/50 rocket).
..  
Named Later : 8/18/2022 12:07 pm : link
Good to know. Both Alec Bohm and Austin Riley started out a little rough around the edges in the field, but their bats allowed them to stay in the lineup. They seem to have rounded into shape at the Hot Corner, hope Brett grows with experience.

Riley hit a homer in his first pro at-bat, his family was in the stands too. But NL pitchers soon found a hole in his swing and he struggled for a while. Riley worked hard on making the adjustment to the pitcher's adjustment. That's life in the Big Leagues.

.  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 12:14 pm : link
Tim Healey Retweeted
Justin Toscano
@JustinCToscano
·
12h
Max Fried will start for the Braves tomorrow.
RE: ..  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 12:17 pm : link
In comment 15784253 Named Later said:
Quote:
Good to know. Both Alec Bohm and Austin Riley started out a little rough around the edges in the field, but their bats allowed them to stay in the lineup. They seem to have rounded into shape at the Hot Corner, hope Brett grows with experience.

Riley hit a homer in his first pro at-bat, his family was in the stands too. But NL pitchers soon found a hole in his swing and he struggled for a while. Riley worked hard on making the adjustment to the pitcher's adjustment. That's life in the Big Leagues.


Bohm remains a very poor fielder. -14 DRS

-14 DRS is the worst mark of any qualified 3b

Bohm is one of the most overrated/over discussed players I can recall. If Baty's first 268 games look like Bohm people will very much be complaining how "overrated" he is/was
RE: .  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 12:18 pm : link
In comment 15784261 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Tim Healey Retweeted
Justin Toscano
@JustinCToscano
·
12h
Max Fried will start for the Braves tomorrow.


would be nice to welcome him back with a 3b ops'ing 1140+ vs. lhp.
RE: RE: ..  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 12:34 pm : link
In comment 15784267 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15784253 Named Later said:


Quote:


Good to know. Both Alec Bohm and Austin Riley started out a little rough around the edges in the field, but their bats allowed them to stay in the lineup. They seem to have rounded into shape at the Hot Corner, hope Brett grows with experience.

Riley hit a homer in his first pro at-bat, his family was in the stands too. But NL pitchers soon found a hole in his swing and he struggled for a while. Riley worked hard on making the adjustment to the pitcher's adjustment. That's life in the Big Leagues.




Bohm remains a very poor fielder. -14 DRS

-14 DRS is the worst mark of any qualified 3b

Bohm is one of the most overrated/over discussed players I can recall. If Baty's first 268 games look like Bohm people will very much be complaining how "overrated" he is/was


if so that would be premature. bohm has bat to ball skills (.280 career ba, 22% k rate) and he has raw power the question is if he'll unlock more power in game (he's posted good exit velocities, hard hit rates, and batting averages so i'd guess he will). whether the defense gets better who knows because it seems mental more than physical but i think he'll be playable (by OAA he's actually still better than Riley) unless he has a knoblach type breakdown.

if baty has bohm's exact career at this point 3 years from now nobody would/should be thrilled but i dont think it's an unrealistic or disastrous outcome. it's probably a pretty reasonable baseline. Bohms career OPS (719) is actually slightly higher than Baty's highest zips projections over the next 3 years (665-712).
Alec  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 12:38 pm : link
Bohm has a 98 wRC+ this season, and -14 DRS. If Brett Baty is doing that after his first 1.5 seasons, people will absolutely be disappointed and Bohm is 26 years old. 4.9% walk rate .111 ISO, he's been a major disappointment
And  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 12:41 pm : link
if scouts agreed with the ZIPS projections, that Baty's first 3 seasons = .719 OPS then he wouldn't be a top 20-30 prospect in baseball. 3rd overall pick, Bohm is not the player the Phillies had hoped for, maybe something changes but he's just a guy. Not a cornerstone of any team.
RE: And  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 12:41 pm : link
In comment 15784297 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
if scouts agreed with the ZIPS projections, that Baty's first 3 seasons = .719 OPS then he wouldn't be a top 20-30 prospect in baseball. 3rd overall pick, Bohm is not the player the Phillies had hoped for, maybe something changes but he's just a guy. Not a cornerstone of any team.


*712 OPS
RE: And  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 12:47 pm : link
In comment 15784297 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
if scouts agreed with the ZIPS projections, that Baty's first 3 seasons = .719 OPS then he wouldn't be a top 20-30 prospect in baseball. 3rd overall pick, Bohm is not the player the Phillies had hoped for, maybe something changes but he's just a guy. Not a cornerstone of any team.


right but that happens more often than not which is why the zips are what they are. there aren't 20-30 cornerstone MLB players in the minors every year. even among top prospects some % work out, some % are complete busts, and some % are in the middle. Bohm is in the middle group kind of like Amed Rosario was for us (which was disappointing, but 5-6 years later he's still improving and now an above average starting SS, top 1/3 by fwar).

im not cornerstone or bust on baty. alvarez probably because of the positional value at C but not baty (or really any prospect other than the real elites).
Eric  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 12:50 pm : link
if Baty's first 268 = 2.3 fWAR, the worst DRS in baseball at 3b and a 96 wRC+, you're happy? Elated? Disappointed? If Baty *is* his ZIPS projections for the first 3 seasons (.712 OPS) same question (good for 18th/22 3b in OPS)
RE: Eric  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 12:58 pm : link
In comment 15784306 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
if Baty's first 268 = 2.3 fWAR, the worst DRS in baseball at 3b and a 96 wRC+, you're happy? Elated? Disappointed? If Baty *is* his ZIPS projections for the first 3 seasons (.712 OPS) same question (good for 18th/22 3b in OPS)


we certainly wont be elated but i dont think the only outcomes are elation or bust. in fact the most likely outcome is somewhere between the 2. how he's looked in the field, what the statcast numbers/swing decisions look like, and if he's shown any extended glimpses of being able to reach a higher level are all data points not captured in an overall zips projection.
Alec  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 1:01 pm : link
Bohm is now at 1.1 fWAR since opening day 2021 (224 games), I don't know that fans would be looking to "move on" but they would almost certainly be open to trading such a player and/or looking for an upgrade at 3b. Bohm has a... 72! wRC+ vs. righties this season, that's scary bad for a RHH considering how many RH's there are.
dan flipping that exact question to you  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 1:02 pm : link
if that's the outcome are you:

elated
think he's a bust
somewhere in between

and which of the 3 do you think is most likely to come true?
RE: dan flipping that exact question to you  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 1:05 pm : link
In comment 15784321 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
if that's the outcome are you:

elated
think he's a bust
somewhere in between

and which of the 3 do you think is most likely to come true?


I'd be disappointed if that's what Baty is, and given Bohm's defense not being anywhere near "plus", I'd probably be 1 year away (2023) from looking to move on at 3b unless there were marked production improvement. I wouldn't be calling him a "bust" rather a low-level starter.
Interesting that Syndergaard will miss facing the Mets again  
10thAve : 8/18/2022 1:05 pm : link
He was pushed out for an extra day of rest when the Mets played the Angels earlier. Now he was scheduled to face the Mets Sunday with an extra day of rest, and Gary mentioned last night (and I’ve seen it other places today) that he was pushed off of Sunday to go Monday on two extra days’ rest now.

Seems to indicate a pattern to me at this point.
RE: Alec  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 1:09 pm : link
In comment 15784320 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Bohm is now at 1.1 fWAR since opening day 2021 (224 games), I don't know that fans would be looking to "move on" but they would almost certainly be open to trading such a player and/or looking for an upgrade at 3b. Bohm has a... 72! wRC+ vs. righties this season, that's scary bad for a RHH considering how many RH's there are.


that's because most fans are impatient (vientos truthers especially).

bohm is currently the 17th best qualified 3b out of 22. that's not great but the position is exceptionally shallow. we paid $12m for the 21/22 qualified 3b. there are only 11 over a 110rc and if i were guessing i think he has a good shot to get there so i probably wouldn't give up on him (if i were his fictional GM).
shifting gears this is welcomed and necessary news  
Eric on Li : 8/18/2022 1:13 pm : link
Quote:
Ian O'Connor @Ian_OConnor
Sandy Alderson said that Steve Cohen going to a payroll in the $345 million ballpark next year is a possibility...

On how Cohen's riches & passion bring 'immense possibility' for sustained Mets contention


JDG only counted 20 something against the LTT this year, so if he opts out and commands anyting close to Scherzer that's a +$20m right there. Bassitt is going to a $10m+ raise. Walker's $7m salary will double. Diaz and Nimmo are getting raises.
Steve Cohen’s riches bring ‘immense possibility’ for sustained Mets contention - ( New Window )
Impatient  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 1:17 pm : link
Would imply you agree that Bohm hasn’t been particularly good. Otherwise , what’s the “patience”? He’s been a below average hitter and fielder to this point in his career and its *unlikely* his glove is ever plus given all factors involved. To this point he’s a low level starting MLB player. That’s just a fact.
I  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 1:19 pm : link
Suspect they keep Bassitt (20ish per), pick up Carrasco’s option, offer Walker the QO (And are happy if he takes it, but fine if he doesn’t), try their best to keep deGrom, keep Diaz and sadly lose Nimmo
Diaz  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 1:20 pm : link
Will be the highest paid closer of all time. He will get it and deserves it. Obviously, I’m not saying he’s better than Mariano Rivera
Betances  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 1:20 pm : link
Retired

-Andrus signs with the White Sox
Anyone with a brain realizes the Mets  
bhill410 : 8/18/2022 1:23 pm : link
Will have to probably go higher to maintain the talent level until they can start to supplement vets / especially on pitching side, with minor league talent. That said why publically announce that.
RE: shifting gears this is welcomed and necessary news  
Snablats : 8/18/2022 1:30 pm : link
In comment 15784337 Eric on Li said:
Quote:


Quote:


Ian O'Connor @Ian_OConnor
Sandy Alderson said that Steve Cohen going to a payroll in the $345 million ballpark next year is a possibility...

On how Cohen's riches & passion bring 'immense possibility' for sustained Mets contention



JDG only counted 20 something against the LTT this year, so if he opts out and commands anyting close to Scherzer that's a +$20m right there. Bassitt is going to a $10m+ raise. Walker's $7m salary will double. Diaz and Nimmo are getting raises. Steve Cohen’s riches bring ‘immense possibility’ for sustained Mets contention - ( New Window )

Again showing that Sandy dumbass is still the boss calling the shots. The man who couldnt build a bullpen in over a decade with the Mets proved again last month that he sucks at the trade deadline

Alderson told us that he was finally moving to the business side - yet another lie from Sandy

Not one top name would even interview last winter because they knew Alderson would still be in charge. What a disgrace

The guy needed to usher in the steriod era to build a winning team, and then hasnt won a damn thing in 30 years since.

It was reported that the Mets interviewed Ausmus for the managerial job at Alderson's insistence, that Ausmus was Alderson's choice. Can you imagine that? Of course you can. Sandy's last good managerial hire was Larussa 40 years ago. Thank god Cohen wanted Buck
How bad were the injuries to the Pitchers ?  
Named Later : 8/18/2022 1:40 pm : link
Carrasco left Monday's game with tightness in his left side.

Walker left Tuesday night with back spasms. How long are they out? Which starters are up with the Big Club ?

Is Big Lefty Peterson scheduled to start a game ?

RE: How bad were the injuries to the Pitchers ?  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 1:50 pm : link
In comment 15784373 Named Later said:
Quote:
Carrasco left Monday's game with tightness in his left side.

Walker left Tuesday night with back spasms. How long are they out? Which starters are up with the Big Club ?

Is Big Lefty Peterson scheduled to start a game ?


Carrasco will miss 3-4 weeks, they are hopeful Walker will only miss one start
RE: How bad were the injuries to the Pitchers ?  
Chris684 : 8/18/2022 1:52 pm : link
In comment 15784373 Named Later said:
Quote:
Carrasco left Monday's game with tightness in his left side.

Walker left Tuesday night with back spasms. How long are they out? Which starters are up with the Big Club ?

Is Big Lefty Peterson scheduled to start a game ?


Carrasco was sent to IL and is said to be out for several weeks.

Walker's report was a little better. Just back spasms, no injury, but not expected to make Sunday's start.

As of now it's Peterson and Williams for Saturday's DH and not sure what the plan is for Sunday.
Butto  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 1:59 pm : link
Is scheduled to start for Syracuse tonight. If he doesn’t go, we can assume it’s him
RE: Butto  
Named Later : 8/18/2022 2:10 pm : link
In comment 15784389 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Is scheduled to start for Syracuse tonight. If he doesn’t go, we can assume it’s him


Well, that's interesting. Thanks guys.
RE: Interesting that Syndergaard will miss facing the Mets again  
speedywheels : 8/18/2022 2:14 pm : link
In comment 15784326 10thAve said:
Quote:
He was pushed out for an extra day of rest when the Mets played the Angels earlier. Now he was scheduled to face the Mets Sunday with an extra day of rest, and Gary mentioned last night (and I’ve seen it other places today) that he was pushed off of Sunday to go Monday on two extra days’ rest now.

Seems to indicate a pattern to me at this point.


He’s such a pussy
RE: I  
Vanzetti : 8/18/2022 2:40 pm : link
In comment 15784343 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Suspect they keep Bassitt (20ish per), pick up Carrasco’s option, offer Walker the QO (And are happy if he takes it, but fine if he doesn’t), try their best to keep deGrom, keep Diaz and sadly lose Nimmo


I wish they would keep Walker. IMO they really need those five starters because there does not appear to be a quality starting pitcher on the immediate horizon in the minors.

But you are probably right that he gets the QO.

Totally agree about Nimmo. Marte moves to CF. Does Naquin get signed to platoon with some combination of Canha/Vientos/Ruf?

They  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 2:46 pm : link
have decided Vientos is unplayable in the OF per Jacob Resnick
Pujols  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 2:49 pm : link
HR #690, he's going to come so close to 700
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/18/2022 2:51 pm : link
That Dodger magic dust has turned Heaney into Koufax wtf
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