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The Complicated Case of Saquon Barkley

christian : 9/13/2022 9:31 am
To get the uncomplicated bits out of the way; Barkley had a fabulous game, looks great, was the reason the Giants won, and the best thing he can do for the Giants, no matter what the future holds, is more of that this year.

I think it's undeniable for some set of fans, Barkley has become synonymous with the losing Gettleman era. And somehow even when the Giants did something seemingly right (acquired a great talent) -- bad outcomes followed. This week is the first week Barkley has been on a winning team, he's missed a bunch of games, and it's pretty hard to hear the Giants didn't field calls to see if there was a big haul out there for a draft day trade.

But if Barkley stays healthy and looks like he did Sunday, that connection will fade, and Barkley will take his place as a really fantastic player on the Giants.

The complicated bit is what to do with him. Now, some fans and maybe GMs will say worry about that in the offseason. I don't think the Giants have that luxury. The Giants find themselves with two of their most important offensive players in walk years.

In the best case both Jones and Barkley do really well, and get strong consideration for the franchise tag. Only one obviously can get it.

The Giants have their bye on week 9, meaning the Giants will have the full 8 games before the trade deadline on 11/1. That's a key date to keep in mind.

The Giants could certainly sign either Barkley or Jones to a longterm extension, and that may happen for one or both of them during the year.

I'd hate for the Giants to not maximize the value of Barkley if it's going to be difficult to keep him.

I know this isn't a topic many are interested in thinking about in week 2, but it's really fascinating to me to see how Schoen approaches building the team.
2 options  
BigBlueJ : 9/13/2022 9:34 am : link
trade him or franchise him, if you think you are close to doing something next year.
the franchise tag is not a hard decision  
KDavies : 9/13/2022 9:36 am : link
franchise tag for a QB is high. No way they do it for Jones.

franchise tag for a RB is very low. Likely they do it for Barkley if no long-term contract is reached prior.
The Giants are not in the position  
larryflower37 : 9/13/2022 9:42 am : link
To give Barkley a 12-16 million per deal that he would demand if he has a similar year to his rookie year but the current franchise tag is just under 9.6 million it makes sense if healthy.
Jones is gone unless he signs a 10-14 million short term deal like 2 years. Even if that's the case I can see the Giants drafting a QB behind him. He would have to have an amazing year to get a real 2nd contract from the Giants.
tag barkley let jones walk  
fish3321 : 9/13/2022 9:59 am : link
draft a rookie QB on a fresh rookie contract
Need to see how the season goes  
UConn4523 : 9/13/2022 10:06 am : link
all options should be on the table
it's not complicated  
Eric on Li : 9/13/2022 10:13 am : link
if he continues playing well they try to keep him as best they can but also keep an ear open on the trade market. if AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams can get traded, anyone can get traded. if the rams call and offer their first in a couple weeks you have to consider it.

if not as im wont to point out the FT is a perfectly reasonable outcome that gives the nyg 2 years of leverage.

the only outlier possibility perhaps worth considering in the near future is an extension if barkley is reasonable - i think talking to other teams and his agent are 2 paths that need to be walked in parallel ahead of the deadline because if both sides decide the best value is in keeping him, the best day to extend any player approaching FA is yesterday. with 2 potential tag years at a low # and off all the injuries would he take the same 17m fully guaranteed Nick Chubb took last year? Chubb's AAV was 12.5m which is almost the same as the tag #. so you are basically getting 2 extra option years in return for guaranteeing money up front.

saquon barkley for the price of marquez valdez scantling seems like a good use of cap allocation to me. or to continue the browns comp, amari cooper just got 100m and 40m of it guaranteed and even though he has been a solid player the pendulum has swung so far the other way in the RB market i'd take the 70% off RB discount for chubb (or barkley).

but regardless the best thing for all is him continuing to play well and stay healthy because a) he seems like a good guy and b) if he's playing well there are pretty much only good options with his future cap hit likely capped at the tag amount.
...  
christian : 9/13/2022 10:17 am : link
The franchise tag for RBs in 2023 is estimated to be 12.7M, and for QBs 31.5M.

I think the biggest factor is how Daniel Jones looks in the first 8 games. If he's having a pretty good first 8 games, it'll be really interesting to see what the Giants do with Barkley.
Its not complicated.  
ArcadeSlumlord : 9/13/2022 10:18 am : link
He either gets franchised or released. I think he gets tagged twice.
...  
christian : 9/13/2022 10:19 am : link
Eric in Li -- but don't you need to factor Jones into the analysis. Same theory applies to him in some respect, no?
RE: The Giants are not in the position  
Pepe LePugh : 9/13/2022 10:21 am : link
In comment 15814892 larryflower37 said:
Quote:
To give Barkley a 12-16 million per deal that he would demand if he has a similar year to his rookie year but the current franchise tag is just under 9.6 million it makes sense if healthy.
Jones is gone unless he signs a 10-14 million short term deal like 2 years. Even if that's the case I can see the Giants drafting a QB behind him. He would have to have an amazing year to get a real 2nd contract from the Giants.


If you think of Barkley as a playmaker instead of as a RB, $12-16M is not a bad deal. The only RBs paid more than that are McCaffrey and Kamara. Both are as dangerous in the passing game as in rushing.
The injury history and short shelf life for the position obviously have to be factored in as well, but a reasonable deal is not impossible.
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 9/13/2022 10:24 am : link
In comment 15814953 christian said:
Quote:
Eric in Li -- but don't you need to factor Jones into the analysis. Same theory applies to him in some respect, no?


yes that's part of the equation. if they feel confident they need tag leverage on jones then they need to be more aggressive if they also want to bring back barkley.

they could transition 1 of them but that's a double edged sword because all it takes is 1 team giving either a christian kirk type deal they are gone and you dont even get the comp pick.

as much as the first 5-6 weeks are just the first 5-6 weeks, it's really the first 10 months of this regime working with these guys and they need to be prepared to make their assessments then if either is a keeper and to at least the extent of determining who they'd want to tag.

i think Barkley is the much easier evaluation because it almost entirely comes down to health, and i think that decision is simply whats the best offer before the deadline vs. tag value for 2 years+.
...  
christian : 9/13/2022 10:24 am : link
There is an outcome where the Giants regret not taking the 5th year option on Jones at 22M. If Jones has a pretty good year, there's no chance in hell he takes a 2/30M deal like Winston did.

If the Giants go into the offseason with Jones and Barkley on the roster, they only have team control on one of them.

...  
christian : 9/13/2022 10:28 am : link
In comment 15814959 Eric on Li said:
Quote:

i think Barkley is the much easier evaluation because it almost entirely comes down to health, and i think that decision is simply whats the best offer before the deadline vs. tag value for 2 years+.


On its own the Barkley situation is pretty straightforward. But Jones has to be factored, simply because they have two birds and practically one stone.
You can forget Jones..  
Sean : 9/13/2022 10:29 am : link
I don’t see any way after that week 1 performance Schoen/Daboll are even entertaining Jones at $32M next year.

But, I do think Schoen will be open to trading Barkley. It won’t be popular though because I think 4-4 at the bye is not far fetched at all. But, Saquon is also a tremendous talent. He wasn’t “just a RB” out of college and there is a reason Sy gave him a 94 grade. As I heard someone say on GMFB today, “he looked like Bo Jackson”.

Depending on how the season goes will determine this, but if he keeps playing like he did yesterday, I would not rule out an extension.
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 9/13/2022 10:30 am : link
In comment 15814960 christian said:
Quote:
There is an outcome where the Giants regret not taking the 5th year option on Jones at 22M. If Jones has a pretty good year, there's no chance in hell he takes a 2/30M deal like Winston did.

If the Giants go into the offseason with Jones and Barkley on the roster, they only have team control on one of them.


they could transition tag jones. i think he's the one other teams would be less likely to 'overpay' on a long term deal because there's so much risk in a QB. i have no idea what kind of contract he'd get on the open market and since they have taylor they could walk from it. but it would cost them a comp pick to do it that way.
You have to remember  
Sean : 9/13/2022 10:31 am : link
The Giants are likely taking a QB next April. If a team is willing to trade a first for Barkley (which a contender very well may), Schoen has to consider it. Having two firsts next April puts the Giants in a much better position to move up for the QB they like.
there may even be an argument transition barkley instead of FT  
Eric on Li : 9/13/2022 10:32 am : link
just because of how cold the RB market has been in recent offseasons for productive players like Aaron Jones. But that's why i'd guess if the nyg want barkley back there's a reasonable extension to be had. RBs have very little leverage in today's game.
...  
christian : 9/13/2022 10:32 am : link
Sean, this is exactly why I was surprised the Giants didn't opt in for Jones's fifth year option.

Yes, it was expensive, but it was ~9M less than a franchise tag. And more importantly kept more options open.

The most simple outcome is if both guys sucked, then you just know. But if both players look pretty good, you have 2 guys on a short track record of health + success.
I think Jones is gone  
section125 : 9/13/2022 10:34 am : link
regardless of how his season goes. A couple of QB injuries by mid-season to contenders may make him a viable trade piece. I see no option to re-sign him as FA.

Barkley is a more complicated matter. He can absolutely be the best RB in the NFL. If he continues to play anywhere close to this in the next few weeks he maybe be the most valuable trade piece come November 1. However, if Schoen and Daboll feel they are close to playoffs this season and to a real contender next season, they may try to keep him. McCaffery and Kamara are the best comps for him and he is probably better than both. He would be an outstanding finishing piece for a contender.

So I think Jones is 95% finished for the Giants and would place Barkley at 50%.
RE: there may even be an argument transition barkley instead of FT  
christian : 9/13/2022 10:37 am : link
In comment 15814978 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
just because of how cold the RB market has been in recent offseasons for productive players like Aaron Jones. But that's why i'd guess if the nyg want barkley back there's a reasonable extension to be had. RBs have very little leverage in today's game.


I agree with the transition tag at ~10M as an option and gauge the market. What do you think the parameters of a reasonable deal might be?
It looks to me like an exclusive franchise tag is the best option  
cosmicj : 9/13/2022 10:37 am : link
Unless they sign SB to a long-term contract. The exclusive and non-exclusive options calculate the base salary based on top 5 base salary vs top 5 total cap hit and the latter is much larger than the former.

With the exclusive franchise tag, it looks to me like the tag would be just a bit under $11mm. If Barkley is healthy, that seems like a sensible choice.

The transition tag doesn’t seem like a good option in this situation.
RE: I think Jones is gone  
christian : 9/13/2022 10:41 am : link
In comment 15814985 section125 said:
Quote:
regardless of how his season goes.


You think the Giants are going to let Jones go for a 3rd round comp pick if he has a really good season?
‘If Saquon Barkley stays healthy’…  
Big Blue Blogger : 9/13/2022 10:42 am : link
… is the NYG version of “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?”

The other version is, “If other parts of Gettleman’s plan for the Giants had worked out, drafting Saquon would have been a great move.”

He was a horrible pick, for completely predictable reasons: positional value, bad team, awful line, cooked QB, etc.

He’s also a fine young man and, when healthy, a wonderful running back. Sunday was perhaps his most complete performance, though we can expect more from him in the passing game as the season progresses. He’s one of the two best players on the team, and by far the most entertaining.

No matter how well he plays, though, he’s still a running back with a reconstructed knee, some holes in his game, and some accumulated wear on his body. Schoen is not going to get a lot for him, and shouldn’t bid against himself on an extension. If Saquon walks, he walks.

RE: RE: there may even be an argument transition barkley instead of FT  
Eric on Li : 9/13/2022 10:45 am : link
In comment 15814988 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 15814978 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


just because of how cold the RB market has been in recent offseasons for productive players like Aaron Jones. But that's why i'd guess if the nyg want barkley back there's a reasonable extension to be had. RBs have very little leverage in today's game.



I agree with the transition tag at ~10M as an option and gauge the market. What do you think the parameters of a reasonable deal might be?


honestly barkley is a guy that i dont think is comp'able because there have been no big UFA RB deals. so if you look at UFA comps like say fournette, you would come to the conclusion that it's a no-brainer to transition tag just because of how low the biggest RB deals are. there's no accurate representation of a 'worst case'.

but if we comp'd christian kirk in February, that probably would have been half of what he ended up getting. that's the worry with barkley - will another team look at him as more than a rb? i would rather have barkley than kirk salaries notwithstanding. there may be a GM willing to give barkley a crazy deal in a similar way. and the transition tag invites another team to overpay because they know they need to do that to win the player.

aaron jones got 4x48 for a 12m AAV but with just 13m guaranteed. so on an extension early i'd guess barkley comes in somewhere around that or chubb and less than Henry (he got 50m for 12.5m AAV and 25m guaranteed). since he already publicly said he's open to that and he's had all the injuries i'd guess he'd be an easier extension to work out than williams was a few years ago.
RE: RE: I think Jones is gone  
ArcadeSlumlord : 9/13/2022 10:46 am : link
In comment 15814993 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 15814985 section125 said:


Quote:


regardless of how his season goes.



You think the Giants are going to let Jones go for a 3rd round comp pick if he has a really good season?


Yes.
RE: ‘If Saquon Barkley stays healthy’…  
christian : 9/13/2022 10:47 am : link
In comment 15814995 Big Blue Blogger said:
Quote:
No matter how well he plays, though, he’s still a running back with a reconstructed knee, some holes in his game, and some accumulated wear on his body. Schoen is not going to get a lot for him, and shouldn’t bid against himself on an extension. If Saquon walks, he walks.


All that could definitely prove to be true. But next offseason, Schoen will have to look back and analyze Should I have traded Barkley after week 8 for X compensation, or let him walk for max a 2024 late 3rd round comp pick.

Letting him walk without playing out the game theory feels like something the last management group would have done.
We all know the history  
Jerry in_DC : 9/13/2022 10:48 am : link
obvious bad pick etc. But a reasonably healthy Barkley adds value to good teams. Bills, Ravens, Raiders, Rams, Bucs, 49ers, etc. The guy is a weapon and with pieces around him, his big plays could swing a big game for someone.

What they are willing to pay for that, I don't know. But I do see a scenario where a 2nd round pick is on the table.
If the Titans make that FG  
I Love Clams Casino : 9/13/2022 10:49 am : link
this discussion isn't happening
...  
christian : 9/13/2022 10:50 am : link
The other element to consider is how aggressive in free agency the Giants will be this offseason, and the likelihood of signing a player that would cancel out Barkley in the comp formula.
If Barkley Continues to Play Close to his Week-1 Performance...  
Jim in Tampa : 9/13/2022 10:58 am : link
and Jones plays only slightly better this season, Barkley will be the face of the franchise. And you don't trade the face of the franchise unless he goes off the rails like OBJ did.

But you also don't give a RB (no matter how talented) a long-term deal when the team has other options. Giants will tag Barkley if he's had a great year and is still standing after week 17.
christian  
Sean : 9/13/2022 11:02 am : link
Barkley carried the team on his back on Sunday. His run in the 2nd half sparked a lifeless offense. Jones tried to give it away with that awful pick in the red zone, but Barkley was the reason for the win.

Until Jones starts carrying the offense in a way Barkley did on Sunday, I think it’s a moot point regarding Jones.

A few “nice plays” from a QB during a game isn’t enough to make a long term commitment or significant financial commitment. Jones play has not earned the salary the 5th year option would provide.
RE: If the Titans make that FG  
Sean : 9/13/2022 11:03 am : link
In comment 15815004 I Love Clams Casino said:
Quote:
this discussion isn't happening

Eh, I’m not so sure. Barkley had a fantastic game either way.
There is nothing complicated about it  
Atlantic : 9/13/2022 11:06 am : link
SB is the only current Giants player with the potential to wear a gold jacket. His rookie year he immediately established himself as one of the best players in the league. As his injuries mounted and the Giants failed to establish a competent offensive line his performance lagged. Just getting out of the backfield was a triumph. Last year as he rounded into shape, he almost single-handedly won the New Orleans game.

Yesterday's game was not an anomaly. There is enough body of work to know he can produce games like this on a regular basis. He makes the Giants better. He is a difference maker in Giants wins.

For some reason, the bad offensive lines that are often used as an excuse for Jones performances are almost never mentioned when discussing Barkley. He couldn't make his own holes. He isn't Barry Sanders. No one is.

Trade him at your own risk. You will never receive fair value in exchange.


.  
arcarsenal : 9/13/2022 11:07 am : link
If he has the year he looks like he's primed to have, it's going to get awfully tempting to want to keep him around for the new era here. But, I still think the prudent football move is probably to trade him if an offer as high as a 2nd winds up on the table.

I could see franchising him. I can't see giving him a new contract.
...  
christian : 9/13/2022 11:09 am : link
Atlantic, so if all of those things are true. What do you think the Giants should do with him and Jones?
RE: There is nothing complicated about it  
M.S. : 9/13/2022 11:11 am : link
In comment 15815017 Atlantic said:
Quote:
SB is the only current Giants player with the potential to wear a gold jacket. His rookie year he immediately established himself as one of the best players in the league. As his injuries mounted and the Giants failed to establish a competent offensive line his performance lagged. Just getting out of the backfield was a triumph. Last year as he rounded into shape, he almost single-handedly won the New Orleans game.

Yesterday's game was not an anomaly. There is enough body of work to know he can produce games like this on a regular basis. He makes the Giants better. He is a difference maker in Giants wins.

For some reason, the bad offensive lines that are often used as an excuse for Jones performances are almost never mentioned when discussing Barkley. He couldn't make his own holes. He isn't Barry Sanders. No one is.

Trade him at your own risk. You will never receive fair value in exchange.


Well said! And your very last sentence is absolutely dead-on! There is no chance Giants could get "fair value" trading Saquon Barkley.
With Barkley the question is never about his talent  
nygiants16 : 9/13/2022 11:19 am : link
it is about can he stay healthy, but if he plays like did Sunday, you have to at least consider giving him a contract..

Yes you can say hr is RB how many hears does he have left, but he is a great fit in Daboll's scheme because you can flex himnout and he can play the slot, it will extend his career..

Barkley is a superstsr when he is healthy, you dont let superstsars walk out the door..
RE: With Barkley the question is never about his talent  
Stu11 : 9/13/2022 11:24 am : link
In comment 15815038 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
it is about can he stay healthy, but if he plays like did Sunday, you have to at least consider giving him a contract..

Yes you can say hr is RB how many hears does he have left, but he is a great fit in Daboll's scheme because you can flex himnout and he can play the slot, it will extend his career..

Barkley is a superstsr when he is healthy, you dont let superstsars walk out the door..

Agreed. If he plays at or near the level he played at Sunday you'd have to keep him even if its just tagging him for a few years. That play he made on the 2 point conversion was elite. There aren't more than a handful of RB's that score there.
I’d offer him an extension  
Ben in Tampa : 9/13/2022 11:25 am : link
2 year / $26 M guaranteed

Giants can’t be picky with their playmakers, but they can’t go crazy
If he continues to play well  
give66 : 9/13/2022 11:27 am : link
Offer him a front-loaded deal so if the wheels fall off in 2-3 years we can move on
RE: .  
Eric on Li : 9/13/2022 11:36 am : link
In comment 15815021 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
If he has the year he looks like he's primed to have, it's going to get awfully tempting to want to keep him around for the new era here. But, I still think the prudent football move is probably to trade him if an offer as high as a 2nd winds up on the table.

I could see franchising him. I can't see giving him a new contract.


the recent rb contracts were essentially franchise tags with option years (chubb, jones especially).

the only silver lining to all of barkley's injuries is that he has less wear and tear than a typical 4 year RB (he only has 600 career carries right now, zeke and henry are around 1500 so any extension likely covers Barkley's career well under that volume threshold). he's still only 25. so a 3 year chubb extension beyond this one would cover ages 26, 27, 28 and basically just resolve the need to tag him twice, instead guaranteeing him some $ and getting 1 extra year of control. if he's willing to take that i think id do it. remember chubb also had the major knee injury at uga and some other injuries as a pro so a lot of similar history is baked in, same draft class too.

chubb only signed his deal last year and it's still tradeable. so it's not like they'd be handcuffed to barkley. the downside would be dead cap if he gets injured, which is the same downside you have with any player at any position. the upside is probably worth it if barkley can put together a strong 5-6 weeks and show he can play this way consistently.
This version of SB  
JonC : 9/13/2022 11:39 am : link
I'm willing to keep, including the FT if a longterm deal isn't reached. At his healthy best, he's a difference maker and can be the motor of the offense, as well as a solid citizen. I admit, I really like the kid, and as tailback in my own day I'm happy to have him on the Giants.

Jones is still a hard no for me right now, dawg. If he does enough this season to warrant it, work on a one year deal for fair compensation or just let him walk. You're not winning playoff games with Jones as is, and he's still showing his warts.
it's not that complicated  
djm : 9/13/2022 11:44 am : link
he's going to be up for a second contract and if he stays healthy this season, be coming off a monster year that shows he's a legit MVP caliber running back, be under the age of 27 and fall under 1000 carries in his career. He won't be close to any proverbial running back wall or cliff and will be fresh of an MVP caliber effort (rb mvp mind you)

HE's going to get paid if he is healthy in January 2023. Why would we NOT want a field tilter like this? Why can't we have that? Don't tell me it's fungible, if it was we'd see more of it and we'd see more teams never draft RBs in round 1-2 or never spend any money on the position. They do spend. They do draft RBs high so stop making things up.
RE: the franchise tag is not a hard decision  
islander1 : 9/13/2022 11:47 am : link
In comment 15814887 KDavies said:
Quote:
franchise tag for a QB is high. No way they do it for Jones.

franchise tag for a RB is very low. Likely they do it for Barkley if no long-term contract is reached prior.


Absolutely, the franchise tag isn't bad.

I'd be open to signing Saquon to a new deal, but nothing over four years.
RE: If the Titans make that FG  
islander1 : 9/13/2022 11:47 am : link
In comment 15815004 I Love Clams Casino said:
Quote:
this discussion isn't happening


nah, we aren't even in the game without him.
Don’t let talent walk  
aGiantGuy : 9/13/2022 11:49 am : link
You give him the same deal Chubb got. This offense absolutely falls off the rails when he is not in, there’s plenty of sample size out there. Make him a Giant forever.

And quit saying trade him to a contender, we just beat a #1 seed and the first seed team in our division just lost their QB and Left Tackle.
The Eagles barely scraped into the playoffs last year and are considered contenders already.
If he has a season like the first game, I’d keep him around......  
Simms11 : 9/13/2022 11:54 am : link
Why would you get rid of that talent and a foundational piece to boot?! They need talent and can’t keep spinning their wheels with this roster. When SB is on his game there’s no other in the league on his level. Let the season play out though first and then revisit this discussion. The games are only going to get harder for him as other teams will load up the box to stop him first and foremost. They’ll force Jones to beat them, which is what we’ll probably see more of this week.
....  
BrettNYG10 : 9/13/2022 12:00 pm : link
I hated the pick but would love Saquon to be on the team long-term. He's fun to watch, easy to root for. I don't know if it makes sense for both sides, though.
RE: RE: .  
arcarsenal : 9/13/2022 12:01 pm : link
In comment 15815059 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 15815021 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


If he has the year he looks like he's primed to have, it's going to get awfully tempting to want to keep him around for the new era here. But, I still think the prudent football move is probably to trade him if an offer as high as a 2nd winds up on the table.

I could see franchising him. I can't see giving him a new contract.



the recent rb contracts were essentially franchise tags with option years (chubb, jones especially).

the only silver lining to all of barkley's injuries is that he has less wear and tear than a typical 4 year RB (he only has 600 career carries right now, zeke and henry are around 1500 so any extension likely covers Barkley's career well under that volume threshold). he's still only 25. so a 3 year chubb extension beyond this one would cover ages 26, 27, 28 and basically just resolve the need to tag him twice, instead guaranteeing him some $ and getting 1 extra year of control. if he's willing to take that i think id do it. remember chubb also had the major knee injury at uga and some other injuries as a pro so a lot of similar history is baked in, same draft class too.

chubb only signed his deal last year and it's still tradeable. so it's not like they'd be handcuffed to barkley. the downside would be dead cap if he gets injured, which is the same downside you have with any player at any position. the upside is probably worth it if barkley can put together a strong 5-6 weeks and show he can play this way consistently.


I just worry about sustainability/durability. Of course, if I thought we were getting the version of 26 we saw on Sunday for several years, I'd offer him a new contract yesterday.

It's not that I don't think he's worth the money or doesn't impact the game enough to warrant it, it's more that RB's can fall off and fall off fast. Todd Gurley was one of the best RB's on the planet for 2 years, and then by age 27, he was out of football entirely.

I feel like the optimal amount of time to have Barkley here would probably be this year + 2 additional seasons. If that could be done via tagging him twice, I might prefer that to a new deal that hitches us to him beyond that.
There is 'some' linkage between the Jones and Barkley decisions  
Jimmy Googs : 9/13/2022 12:04 pm : link
but I don't think enough that it should handcuff anybody's thought-process either.

Jones just has little chance to make the necessary QB grade to continue on as a Giant. I actually think Schoen/Daboll are there with decision already (or at least that it is extremely unlikely). And the cost is really secondary, it's the fact that he isn't a good enough QB that make this decision clear.

Barkley being a much better football player makes this one tougher, but really only some. The issue here is the expected declining value of a RB on a second contract, and an oft-injured one at that, is just not a prudent longer term investment. The tags could solve for that but don't see the point unless Schoen really expects to compete for a title next season which isn't happening either.

If someone offers something for Barkley in October it should be seriously considered and weighed against what he gives us in 2022 (if still competing for a playoff spot). Or just let him become a free agent in 2023 if offers are low or non-existent and bargain for his services like everybody else. If $ work then give him a new deal.
RE: tag barkley let jones walk  
PatersonPlank : 9/13/2022 12:05 pm : link
In comment 15814910 fish3321 said:
Quote:
draft a rookie QB on a fresh rookie contract


This makes perfect sense to me as long as we can get a high enough draft pick
The problem with Barkely is durability  
NoGainDayne : 9/13/2022 12:06 pm : link
to me he has to have a spotless health record before the trade deadline. Spotless, don't want to see any Q designation or anything. If not spotless you listen to offers, low 1st / high 2nd would do it for me. I love the player when healthy, what a game on Sunday but I'm just not sure paying an RB 13M is prudent in today's NFL, especially when it looks like we have our bookend tackles I'd rather put those resources into creating a dominant line.

If he plays like he did last weekend for a full season I think that is exactly what the franchise tag is for. You want to pay the top players what they are worth without having to commit long term. He looked like prime AP out there on Sunday so yeah if you think you can have that player for a full season you pay top dollar.
again  
djm : 9/13/2022 12:06 pm : link
my take is all predicated on Barkley having a near flawless 2022 season in terms of health. I'd be hard pressed to let that kind of talent get away but i need to see the health. So far he looks super human.

Tiki didn't really arrive until 2000. MAybe Bark peaks in year 4 too. Different situations but some RBs were unlucky early but have much more gas in their tank later on in their career.
Jones on the other hand  
NoGainDayne : 9/13/2022 12:07 pm : link
should be let go, he's not growing in the mental aspects of the game. I don't care how athletic a QB is if they aren't at least showing a positive trajectory there. He really isn't.
I just don't think durability  
djm : 9/13/2022 12:11 pm : link
is something we can predict. Of course I wouldn't sign a guy that is always hurt or badly hurt at the time of negotiations but 2020 was really one time. 2021 was bad luck when someone steps on Barkley's ankle. The guy did play the majority of games in 2021 despite not being nearly 100% back --shit he probably wasn't even 75% back all year in 21, then the ankle? I'd call that bad luck.

If he plays this season you'd really only have the one bad 2020 injury to worry about and BArkley would be 2 full years removed.

Under 1000 carries as well. HE could have 1000 more. That's a lot of wins if the team is built the right way.
Saquon was elite coming out of college ...  
Manny in CA : 9/13/2022 12:13 pm : link

His stats were as good (or better) than the two best NFL RBs (Jim Brown & Barry Sanders) in the history of the NCAA.

Dan Jones is no Johnny Unitas or Tom Brady (two college "nobodies" who became "somebodies"). What I'm saying - Jones is a heck more replaceable.
part of why I prefer keeping Barkley, all things equal...  
islander1 : 9/13/2022 12:16 pm : link
is his ability to receive as well. He's sort of Chubb and Hunt rolled into one in that sense.

Durability, that will always be a question, but I don't question his work ethic and training.

Some people just get injured more often.
He is the most talented RB  
larryflower37 : 9/13/2022 12:36 pm : link
In the league hands down with the big caveat when healthy and that has been the issue.
It's a big risk and needs to be part of any deal.
I really think Jones will be available at 12-16 million even if he has a good year too much baggage and most other teams will see a system improvement not Necessarily Jones taking the next step.
I see him like Mariota, trubisky, Winston, brissett type.
Which could be a nice bridge to a drafted QB.
Don't forget about the business side of things  
Thegratefulhead : 9/13/2022 12:43 pm : link
Barkley is their most marketable player right now. If he has a huge year, he will put fannies in seats. I know it is already sold out but when folks stay home, they are not buying shit in the stadium.

If Barkley plays enough games like yesterday(Outplayed Derrick Henry) he worth it. Lets see what happens. Very, very excited by his play. That guy got dirty yards and made big plays.

Yesterday, Barkley was perfect. Went beyond the X's and O's(stolen) and won the game. we talk about wanting a dog on defense. Barkley was a dog on offense yesterday. Put us on his back. You build teams with those players regardless of position. Consistency matters, let's see more. If he continues this, he will be a Giant. Owner loves him as well.
...  
christian : 9/13/2022 12:49 pm : link
If by week 8 he's on pace to approach anywhere near his 2018 numbers, and the Giants offer him the dollars and structure Chubb received -- Schoen will get laughed off the phone.

There's no way Barkley excepts a deal with anything around 20M guaranteed, when the franchise tag for one year is 13M.
The fan in me would  
Enzo : 9/13/2022 1:01 pm : link
would love for Saquon to have a nice long career here. He's fun to watch and seemingly a good guy. But this team has major holes all over the roster (TE, CB, LB and no proven long-term options at WR). And they need to find a QB. Seems like keeping him is a luxury we can't quite afford.
Wrote this earlier...  
Jimmy Googs : 9/13/2022 1:09 pm : link
It is not the easiest thing to come to grips as NYG fans. But a great 2022 season for Saquon Barkley probably helps us more by not having him next year than having him next year.
If I am Jones and I have a great year, I let the Giants tag me or  
Ivan15 : 9/13/2022 1:10 pm : link
I see what the offers look like, including an offer from the Giants.

If he has a great year, it is hard to see anyone offering more than the Giants. If he has a good but not great year, the offers will will be for a backup QB and the Giants could still be the high bidder.

The Giants have only one decision to make. Should he be tagged? That’s unreasonable so really Jones’ future is out of their control, unless HE decides to sign as a free agent.
RE: christian  
UConn4523 : 9/13/2022 1:11 pm : link
In comment 15815015 Sean said:
Quote:
Barkley carried the team on his back on Sunday. His run in the 2nd half sparked a lifeless offense. Jones tried to give it away with that awful pick in the red zone, but Barkley was the reason for the win.

Until Jones starts carrying the offense in a way Barkley did on Sunday, I think it’s a moot point regarding Jones.

A few “nice plays” from a QB during a game isn’t enough to make a long term commitment or significant financial commitment. Jones play has not earned the salary the 5th year option would provide.


Agreed. Jones is going to have to "take over" games to stick her past 2022. Just isn't likely. I can see him having a few good games where you start thinking about it, but you will have those bad endzone throws as well, and games that are complete duds - if that happens there's no reason to keep him.

Barkley being tagged (if healthy and productive) makes a lot of sense.
________  
I am Ninja : 9/13/2022 1:13 pm : link
Cart before horse. Way too premature to be thinking about this kind of stuff.

1 win and we're absolving gettleman, extending barkley and taking it as given that we're gonna be 3-0.

Just pump the brakes and enjoy it.
RE: ________  
section125 : 9/13/2022 1:26 pm : link
In comment 15815195 I am Ninja said:
Quote:
Cart before horse. Way too premature to be thinking about this kind of stuff.

1 win and we're absolving gettleman, extending barkley and taking it as given that we're gonna be 3-0.

Just pump the brakes and enjoy it.


Meh, it is better then the Jones or Toney bashing threads!
My question with trading Barkley, hopefully someone can shed light.  
The Dude : 9/13/2022 1:36 pm : link
What does he fetch at the deadline? He will have 8 games left on his contract. NFL trades happen more now but it's still tough to get something back for a rental...in the MLB you see it alot more and the packages are valuable

Apologies i'm not too well versed. But a team trading for Barkley mid year would still be able to tag him correct?


No matter how great Barkley does until then, I'm not sure he's fetching more than a 4th-5th? at the deadline. In the MLB its so easy to point and say we need player X and we'll probably get to the World Series. There's a series of games where the better* team is winning. NFL is any given sunday. No matter who you acquired, you can just get out-worked in the divisional round.

An Injury at the RB position to a team that is like 6-1 at the deadline might pay up alittle more? But again, 8 games left on the contract.
The Rams traded a 2 and a 3  
NoGainDayne : 9/13/2022 1:40 pm : link
for Von Miller as a rental. If Barkley looks this dominant a 2 seems possible.

Plus, if someone does want to keep him, the franchise tag is way easier for an RB than an edge.
...  
christian : 9/13/2022 1:41 pm : link
^ I have no idea what Barkley would fetch in a trade, but you're trading for 8 games and team control in 2023 via one of the tags.
I think some people who might be hesitant  
BSIMatt : 9/13/2022 1:42 pm : link
Could come around on Barkley if the line keeps blocking like that and he keeps making big plays. I could care less about positional value, because when he plays like that he’s not just a running back. Explosive plays are a key part of scoring touchdowns, regardless of where that player lines up when the ball is snapped. Last Sunday was the 10th time in the last 50 games the Giants have scored 3 or more offensive touchdowns(that streak extends over the last 3 seasons-2019-2022). They have not scored more than 3 offensive touchdowns in over 2 years. Kafka and Daboll know they need to turn the offense around and Barkley just looked like one of the top skill players in the entire league on Sunday.
RE: The Rams traded a 2 and a 3  
Sean : 9/13/2022 1:43 pm : link
In comment 15815236 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
for Von Miller as a rental. If Barkley looks this dominant a 2 seems possible.

Plus, if someone does want to keep him, the franchise tag is way easier for an RB than an edge.

If Barkley continues to play like he did Sunday, he should net a first. That’s a small price to play for a win now team. The Rams won a super bowl mortgaging 1st round picks. When at the top of his game, Barkley is more than a running back - he is a catalyst for the offense.
I think some people take positional value too literally sometimes  
NoGainDayne : 9/13/2022 1:48 pm : link
it isn't just about pay for position. Some of the reason RBs are devalued is because of their durability issues.

You aren't going to find anyone here that isn't willing to pay top RB dollars for the Saquon Barkley last Sunday. The question is will he miss games, will he miss a lot of games. Will he get dinged up and slowed down?

No question he's an elite talent but we just haven't seen enough of the good Saquon to trust him even on a 1 year deal if it isn't a clean year this year is risky.
i think a barkley trade would be a 3rd as table stakes + a 2nd pick  
Eric on Li : 9/13/2022 1:48 pm : link
anyone trading for him knows even as a rental he's probably bringing back at 3rd round comp pick. so i think from what we've seen of deadline trades that gets priced in and then the question is what is anyone willing to bid where there's an actual net value loss with the 2nd pick? i dont think anyone would give up a first, but maybe. Cooper is the only recent rental who brought back a 1 and that was several years ago, but a fairly comparable situation.

the trade deadline rental/comp pick dynamic is the primary reason why i like the strategy of structuring tradable veterans for the trade deadline as opposed to the offseason. the trading team is generally in better position to eat cap, you only need the player to put a few good games on tape, and then you can cash in on the comp pick/rental dynamic from a team that's a little more urgent since they are usually trying to win a SB.

if i was a GM of a rebuilding team with cap room id be all about 1 year deals for vets with big signing bonuses, minimum base salaries, and then pump and dump to create extra draft picks at the deadline.
RE: RE: The Rams traded a 2 and a 3  
NoGainDayne : 9/13/2022 1:49 pm : link
In comment 15815240 Sean said:
Quote:
In comment 15815236 NoGainDayne said:


Quote:


for Von Miller as a rental. If Barkley looks this dominant a 2 seems possible.

Plus, if someone does want to keep him, the franchise tag is way easier for an RB than an edge.


If Barkley continues to play like he did Sunday, he should net a first. That’s a small price to play for a win now team. The Rams won a super bowl mortgaging 1st round picks. When at the top of his game, Barkley is more than a running back - he is a catalyst for the offense.


I'd agree that would be the worth, just not sure you fetch that. I'd argue that Von was worth a 1st, especially seeing the resulting success he had. Totally changed that D. Wasn't fetched though...
RE: I think some people who might be hesitant  
christian : 9/13/2022 1:50 pm : link
In comment 15815238 BSIMatt said:
Quote:
Could come around on Barkley if the line keeps blocking like that and he keeps making big plays. I could care less about positional value, because when he plays like that he’s not just a running back.


The positional value conversation only has merit when his YP-Touch and 1Ds don't match up with the number of touches.

If he's averaging north of 7 YP-Touch and pacing towards 100 1Ds, I agree.

To be a great weapon, and merit lots of touches, my view is he needs the explosive plays and the chain moving plays.
to be clear i dont think anyone is giving up a 1st + 3rd  
Eric on Li : 9/13/2022 1:54 pm : link
i dont think anyone is putting a 1st on the table singularly.

so i think the question is a 3rd + what? i could see a 3rd and a 2nd like von miller being offered. then the question is do you take that or not? it's probably pick #50 plus pick #82 or something like that, so you are talking in the range of an ezeudu and a flott type.

even if someone put a singular 1st on the table im not even sure it's so different value wise because it's almost definitely a late one.

there's logic either way and i do think that's the type of decision we'll see schoen have to make, but if he keeps i think he may as well be prepared to extend him.
I would say Saquon's injuries  
ChrisRick : 9/13/2022 2:02 pm : link
have been more about bad luck. His second year he landed awkwardly in tampa which resulted in a high ankle sprain that lasted most of the season

Obviously his third year he tears his ACL on a play that could happen to anyone

Last year he sprains his ankle when a teammate steps on his foot in dallas

I am not sure I would consider him injury prone where his body can't handle the physical nature of the NFL. He has had some real bad luck with injuries.

The biggest hurdle for Saquon Barkley at this point in my view is: How long/well is the reconstructed knee going to hold up? Certainly a fair question for any team looking to invest in him.
If he plays a full season  
Blue92 : 9/13/2022 2:08 pm : link
and racks up 2,000+ yards and 12+ TDs, then tag / extension are definitely back on the table.
RE: I would say Saquon's injuries  
NoGainDayne : 9/13/2022 2:36 pm : link
In comment 15815270 ChrisRick said:
Quote:
have been more about bad luck. His second year he landed awkwardly in tampa which resulted in a high ankle sprain that lasted most of the season

Obviously his third year he tears his ACL on a play that could happen to anyone

Last year he sprains his ankle when a teammate steps on his foot in dallas

I am not sure I would consider him injury prone where his body can't handle the physical nature of the NFL. He has had some real bad luck with injuries.

The biggest hurdle for Saquon Barkley at this point in my view is: How long/well is the reconstructed knee going to hold up? Certainly a fair question for any team looking to invest in him.


Oh jesus come on with this. People said a concern with taking an RB #2 was due to injuries durability the data proves out on an individual level and you want to chalk it up as luck. That's ridiculous.

I suppose all RBs are just unlucky then getting injured at the highest rates and having the shortest careers?

What injuries are unlucky and what are deserved?

I can't believe people write this stuff.
It's pretty simple to see the point I was making  
ChrisRick : 9/13/2022 2:41 pm : link
Feel free to take your arrogant attitude elsewhere.
It's not really a simple point it's a bad one  
NoGainDayne : 9/13/2022 2:44 pm : link
Not sure why you can't see that it is ridiculous to call missing the better part of his NFL career "bad luck" it's what you want to believe not what the data says. And that's what makes it a bad point
Data shows  
ChrisRick : 9/13/2022 2:46 pm : link
running backs are more suspectable to wear and tear (body breaking down) these were not wear and tear injuries.

Less arrogance; more understanding
Can we just enjoy the season  
Breeze_94 : 9/13/2022 3:01 pm : link
And worry about this later?

RE: RE: The Rams traded a 2 and a 3  
Jimmy Googs : 9/13/2022 3:11 pm : link
In comment 15815240 Sean said:
Quote:
In comment 15815236 NoGainDayne said:


Quote:


for Von Miller as a rental. If Barkley looks this dominant a 2 seems possible.

Plus, if someone does want to keep him, the franchise tag is way easier for an RB than an edge.


If Barkley continues to play like he did Sunday, he should net a first. That’s a small price to play for a win now team. The Rams won a super bowl mortgaging 1st round picks. When at the top of his game, Barkley is more than a running back - he is a catalyst for the offense.


Not happening. Schoen gets GM of the Year if he lands a first rounder for a RB (even if you think he is more).

Day 2 pick at best...
RE: Can we just enjoy the season  
christian : 9/13/2022 3:29 pm : link
In comment 15815354 Breeze_94 said:
Quote:
And worry about this later?


You're extraordinarily welcome to do so!
Id prefer to trade him  
Jerry in_DC : 9/13/2022 4:45 pm : link
if we could get a 2nd round pick. I think that's possible if he plays well.

But I do think we'll keep him. We will be trying to win next year and we don't have very many good players. Even if RB is low positional value, he is good. Plus we'll have a QB on a rookie deal and we cut a lot of the dead wood already.

The more I think about it, the more likely the franchise tag seems. Unless Mara steps in to reward one of his guys.

Just as a fan though, I'd love to see what he looks like on the Bills or Ravens
RE: Data shows  
NoGainDayne : 9/13/2022 5:48 pm : link
In comment 15815327 ChrisRick said:
Quote:
running backs are more suspectable to wear and tear (body breaking down) these were not wear and tear injuries.

Less arrogance; more understanding


My understanding of ligament issues is there is a moment they tear but they absolutely get worn down, not sure what your point is. Plus any injury can be the result of fatigue, and you can't really explain that away. The more you might be compensating for other dings the more potentially off-balance or susceptible to other ailments you can be. That is why injuries generally go up as usage does.

And I'm sorry but only good points need to be understood, your point was bad. A known and predictable data set performing within the distribution shouldn't have individual points explained away as "luck" pretty definitionally there isn't anything to understand. Odd enough that you'd bring the weak stuff in here but are doubling down as if you have a point when you don't. Many said you don't draft an RB #2 because of durability, we've experienced that and you want to act like this was just bad luck? Seriously? Lol.
Value is high RIGHT NOW.  
Thegratefulhead : 9/13/2022 6:34 pm : link
If we are offered a rd 2 pick tomorrow, do you take it?

I do.

sleep like a baby after too.

Don't care what he does, wherever he goes.

Doesn't matter.

His career isn't look to be long or injury free.

It could be injury free, but if it is, it is just a lucky guess.
Right now was key  
Thegratefulhead : 9/13/2022 6:38 pm : link
If he plays a full season this year, totes the rock like he did and proves durable, he isn't trying to leap over guys and becomes more of cut and go guy and gets low for an entire season?. Yeah, I would resign him, offer me a 2 tomorrow and I have to take it because I think that full season healthy is very unlikely.
The only complication I see...  
bw in dc : 9/13/2022 7:31 pm : link
is if we continue winning and Barkley is still lighting it up at the trade deadline. And by winning, I mean we are firmly in the mix for the NFCE and a playoff spot.

At that point, it's highly likely Schoen keeps SB and pushes the SB decision to the offseason.

I think multi-year contracts for RBs - off their rookie deals - are not wise. Because of the injury risk, and the likelihood the production curves bends sooner rather than later, the position should be treated on a year-to-year basis.

Even Peterson, who was a physical freak, struggled to stay healthy after his MVP season in 2012. And that MVP season was after an incredible five-year run.

Derrick Henry is a horse. He signed a new deal in the months leading up to the 2020 season. In 2020, Henry only played 8 games.

Look at Alvin Kamara. Signs a new contract heading in to the 2020 season. He had a very good season in 2020. In 2021? Kamara's production falls off all across the board and he misses four games to boot.

The examples are just too strong to support avoiding any multi-year contract for SB. As mentioned, he already has an injury history and, IMV, he's very motivated to have a good year because he's trying to earn that second contract.

No matter how well he does, we shouldn't fall into the trap thinking SB will be the exception and not the rule.



...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 9/13/2022 7:37 pm : link
For both parties involved-Saquon & the Giants-we should hope he lights it up this season & suits up for all 17 games. Schoen doesn't strike me as someone who is going to shell serious coin to a RB based on what Beane has done in Buffalo. & I don't think Saquon will see CM or Zeke $ on the open market.
RE: RE: Data shows  
ChrisRick : 9/13/2022 7:51 pm : link
In comment 15815585 NoGainDayne said:
Quote:
In comment 15815327 ChrisRick said:


Quote:


running backs are more suspectable to wear and tear (body breaking down) these were not wear and tear injuries.

Less arrogance; more understanding



My understanding of ligament issues is there is a moment they tear but they absolutely get worn down, not sure what your point is. Plus any injury can be the result of fatigue, and you can't really explain that away. The more you might be compensating for other dings the more potentially off-balance or susceptible to other ailments you can be. That is why injuries generally go up as usage does.

And I'm sorry but only good points need to be understood, your point was bad. A known and predictable data set performing within the distribution shouldn't have individual points explained away as "luck" pretty definitionally there isn't anything to understand. Odd enough that you'd bring the weak stuff in here but are doubling down as if you have a point when you don't. Many said you don't draft an RB #2 because of durability, we've experienced that and you want to act like this was just bad luck? Seriously? Lol.


Then your durability rules should apply to anyone that gets tackled frequently. Saquon did not get hurt just because he is a running back. He didn’t tear his acl just because he is a running back, he didn’t get a high ankle sprain because he is a running back and so on and so forth.

And no need to reply if you are going to continue with your attitude, or you can have the last word on this if something like that is important to you.
I kind of deserve  
ChrisRick : 9/13/2022 11:18 pm : link
What I got on this thread. There was a post last week that I thought was a terrible take and I was pretty condescending to them about their take.

If I don’t like being talked to a certain way then I should not talk to others in that same way.

Live and hopefully learn
If Barkley is on track for 2000 yds rushing, and the Giants  
PatersonPlank : 9/13/2022 11:45 pm : link
are competing for the NFCE, I think you need to keep him. First he is a great talent. Second, he is the undisputed leader of the team (not Jones, etc.). If the team is winning and competing, he is likely the main reason from a performance POV as well as a leadership one.
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