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NFT: FF 9/22 - Conundrum, help me solve it

allstarjim : 9/22/2022 5:25 am
So I'm in a 5-keeper, 10-team standard league, and I have problems. For context, I'm 0-2 in this league, but never say die, right! I'm keeping this together with duct tape and putty.

I'm in maybe the tightest roster squeeze I can remember.

My bench is full of RBs and WRs. I have no backup QB or TE, and obviously no backup DEF.

The roster is a bit of a mess. It looks like a rebuilding year anyway, but let me give you the details, a * indicates current starter.

QB Justin Herbert*
RBs: Javonte Williams*, Jeff Wilson*, J.K. Dobbins, Melvin Gordon, Darrell Henderson, Eli Mitchell (holding), Brian Robinson (IR slot)
WRs: Christian Kirk*, Courtland Sutton*, Jahan Dotson*(flex), DK Metcalf, Elijah Moore, Jameson Williams (IR slot)
TE Gerald Everett*

We have two IR slots so both are full with Brian Robinson and Jameson Williams. Obviously, I could drop one (would have to be Robinson), to move Mitchell in that slot and open a space.

I don't want to do that because Robinson could be back playing in just two weeks, but likely at least 3, probably 4 more games before I'd consider playing him if all goes well and he takes over as the primary ball-carrier in Washington.

I'm counting on Williams and Robinson to hopefully pan out so I can keep them and make them core keepers and pieces of the rebuild.

I would like to add Wentz as a backup QB, just in case Herbert doesn't play or to get ahead of the potential for Herbert to re-injure his ribs (potentially more seriously) even if he does play.

Out of that group, who can I drop?

I've thought about dropping Henderson, but it leaves me thin in the short-term at RB, as he at least can play. I thought about Elijah Moore, but I believe he's too talented and I can see a version of the old Diggs and Thielen situation with him and Garrett Wilson developing down the line, whether it's Flacco or Zach Wilson playing QB, where both receivers had a lot of fantasy value.

DK Metcalf is my worst performer, but there's no way I can drop him, right? He's the most talented WR on my roster, he just has QB problems, which could be solved next year, and I'd like to keep him in case it is. And given his talent, he could still be a player this year if Geno can get into a rhythm with this group, which doesn't seem likely.

I could drop Eli Mitchell, I think he'd get scooped up for a stash, but it wouldn't hurt me or help the acquiring team for another 7 weeks or so at minimum. I do like Eli as a starting option when healthy because of that Shanahan offense has just been so good for the top rushing option.

Jameson Williams is an absolute no. I can see him becoming a star in Detroit.

This is to say nothing about bye week crunches.

Should I just wait and see how it plays out this weekend? I think with this group of receivers, eventually I will have to trade at least one. Right now, I can't find a trade that makes sense.

So help me out. Here it is again for perhaps a better look at the entire roster:

QB Justin Herbert
RB Javonte Williams
RB Jeff Wilson
WR Courtland Sutton
WR Christian Kirk
TE Gerald Everett
Flex Jahan Dotson

Bench:

RB J.K. Dobbins
RB Melvin Gordon
RB Darrell Henderson
RB Elijah Mitchell
WR DK Metcalf
WR Elijah Moore

IR Brian Robinson
IR Jameson Williams

For extra fun, Jeff Wilson, Eli Mitchell, Javonte Williams, and Melvin Gordon all share the same bye (week 9). I know better than to worry about bye weeks right now, though.
I'm not saying give up  
robbieballs2003 : 9/22/2022 6:26 am : link
but for a 10 team league, your team is not good. Any move you make should be for the long term success of your team over the short term move. I wouldn't want to risk losing a guy like Brian Robinson right now until you at least see him play for a few weeks.

Why not look into some trade options (2 for 1, 3 for 2, etc.) to see if you can open up a roster spot that way?
Who was your 1st and 2nd Rd draft picks?  
George from PA : 9/22/2022 6:37 am : link
I do not see anything better than a 3rd or 4th Rd on your team?

In a 10 team league....to boot.
RE: I'm not saying give up  
allstarjim : 9/22/2022 6:49 am : link
In comment 15827111 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
but for a 10 team league, your team is not good. Any move you make should be for the long term success of your team over the short term move. I wouldn't want to risk losing a guy like Brian Robinson right now until you at least see him play for a few weeks.

Why not look into some trade options (2 for 1, 3 for 2, etc.) to see if you can open up a roster spot that way?


Yeah I eventually want to do that. Would like to trade Metcalf but need to wait until he re-established some value.

With 5 keepers, the pickings were slim in the first round of the draft and I had maxed out on my keeps with Saquon. I had DeAndre Hopkins but couldn't make him a keeper with the suspension, and of course DK's value plummeted with the Russ trade. Sort of a 3-headed bummer of circumstances from last year to this year.

Last year I also had A.J. Brown and traded him, obviously now I wish I hadn't but who knew he would go from Tannehill and the Titans run-oriented offense to Philly.

I had a decent team last year that just missed the playoffs bc Saquon just couldn't get right while I owned him, and J.K. Dobbins tearing his ACL early hurt.

But I think this team has a lot of upside for the future with Dobbins returning, Javante is a stud and I still don't think we've seen his best, and as I mentioned I like Moore, Jameson Williams, Dotson is exciting, even Kirk this year. I expect this team to look a lot better later in the year than it does now.

In fact I like this team better than the one that just missed the playoffs last year.
A big problem with your team is your monopoly on teams' RB.  
robbieballs2003 : 9/22/2022 6:54 am : link
I had Mitchell all last year. I wasn't thrilled because Deebo took so many touches in the red zone. You have 4 roster spots for technically two RB spots. I get Williams and Gordon. I'm not high on keeping Mitchell and Wilson. I would try to package them and a WR for 2 players.
RE: Who was your 1st and 2nd Rd draft picks?  
allstarjim : 9/22/2022 6:59 am : link
In comment 15827113 George from PA said:
Quote:
I do not see anything better than a 3rd or 4th Rd on your team?

In a 10 team league....to boot.


Yeah it's a draft where basically the top 50 guys are off the board. You have to look at it from that lens. Keepers were Dobbins, Javonte, DK, Kirk, and Eli Mitchell.

I picked 6th and the first round went:

1. Saquon
2. Kelce
3. Etienne
4. James Conner
5. Breece Hall
6. Justin Herbert (me)
7. Mark Andrews
8. Cam Akers
9. Mahomes
10. Kittle

I didn't have a 2nd round pick because I traded it last year for my trading partner's 4th rounder to make a playoff push.

So my 2nd draft pick was really the third round and I got Elijah Moore who I remain high on, Courtland Sutton and Chase Edmonds in the 4th. But remember these 4th rounders are the equivalent of 9th round picks.

Edmonds I traded for Jeff Wilson when Mitchell got hurt. Happy with that trade.


Why didn't you keep Barkley  
robbieballs2003 : 9/22/2022 7:36 am : link
?
I'd try to trade Henderson  
pjcas18 : 9/22/2022 7:54 am : link
to the Akers owner if he has a player that makes sense to trade.

I don't think both RB's there will have starter value, so normally I'm against handcuffs or tandems but that is one I'd make an exception on until I see how it unfolds, but i wouldn't want to be rostering either of them right now.

I'd start incrementally improving your roster. Both SF RB's are also not a great strategy.
I would try to package a rb and wr for a better wr  
superspynyg : 9/22/2022 11:50 am : link
See if someone bites who has depth.
RE: Why didn't you keep Barkley  
allstarjim : 9/22/2022 12:03 pm : link
In comment 15827120 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
?


I wasn't allowed, I hit my max on keeps with him the season before.
Yeah the only answer is a 2 for 1 trade...  
Kmed6000 : 9/22/2022 12:03 pm : link
good target.....DeAndre Hopkins
RE: Yeah the only answer is a 2 for 1 trade...  
superspynyg : 9/22/2022 12:44 pm : link
In comment 15827395 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
good target.....DeAndre Hopkins


How does wvryone feel about Hopkins this year?
Whats not to like other than he will miss the next 4 games?  
Kmed6000 : 9/22/2022 2:15 pm : link
Hes an upper echelon WR with a good qb. Last year he averaged:

5-75-1 TD over 9 games.

It was a down year for him too. I think he will be a real solid WR2 at worst.
He actually played 10 games last year  
allstarjim : 9/22/2022 2:45 pm : link
and I think his name brand sizzle outshines his actual production. The 8 TDs in 10 games are really nice, but I would've liked to see more targets and catches. He actually averaged 6.3 targets and 4.2 catches per game last season, and never exceeded 87 yards. His median yardage output on those catches was 54.5 yards, with an average of 57.2. That's not great.

It's not his fault, he's a great player. But it's still Kyler Murray there, who has not yet eclipsed 4000 yards or 30 TDs passing in a season. Other than Hopkins' 2020 campaign when he snagged 1407 yards on 115 catches, Murray has not had another receiver eclipse 1000 yards.

I'd move Hopkins for Rashod Batemen right now. I'd rather have Courtland Sutton, Michael Pittman, even Mike Williams. I think Hopkins is fantasy valuable, but I would suggest his true production will come in at a WR3/flex guy than a true #1 from the time he returns to the rest of the season.
Do not drop anyone for a backup QB  
Doubledeuce22 : 9/22/2022 2:47 pm : link
no reason to. In a 10 team league you'll be able to get someone regardless and let's be realistic here, it's only a matter of time before Wentz turns into the trash that we all know he is.
Hes a  
Kmed6000 : 9/22/2022 2:48 pm : link
WR2.
I know that we've talked about K.Pitts previously...  
RC in MD : 9/22/2022 2:50 pm : link
but with his disappointing start to the season, he's still projected as Top 4-5 TE each week. What is your season long prediction on his performance?

It looks like this weekend may be a time for him to explode playing against the porous Seahawks defense.
RE: RE: Why didn't you keep Barkley  
robbieballs2003 : 9/22/2022 2:50 pm : link
In comment 15827394 allstarjim said:
Quote:
In comment 15827120 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


?



I wasn't allowed, I hit my max on keeps with him the season before.


Gotcha. Sucks you missed this year. However, that list isn't that great. You'd think a few more good players would be available.

In one league, we keep between 2 and 4 keepers. First two rounds are keepers. Round 3 is the first real round of the draft. If you kept a 3rd player you use that pick on the player. If you only kept 2 then you get to choose from non keepers including rookies. You'd think this leads to super teams but the turnover every year is very impressive. Every year the teams in the playoffs are mostly new and it is rare to win multiple championships. I really like it.
in 2020 on AZ  
Kmed6000 : 9/22/2022 2:52 pm : link
with Murray, Hopkins had 115 catches and 1400 yards. He's going to be fresh coming in week 7. I have him on my bench in 2 of 3 leagues and highly recommend him as a low cost target.
To the OP...  
Kmed6000 : 9/22/2022 2:52 pm : link
You have no top end talent. That's a brutal team in a 10 team league. Did you take over a dead team or something?
RE: RE: RE: Why didn't you keep Barkley  
RC in MD : 9/22/2022 2:57 pm : link
In comment 15827644 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
In comment 15827394 allstarjim said:


Quote:


In comment 15827120 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


?



I wasn't allowed, I hit my max on keeps with him the season before.



Gotcha. Sucks you missed this year. However, that list isn't that great. You'd think a few more good players would be available.

In one league, we keep between 2 and 4 keepers. First two rounds are keepers. Round 3 is the first real round of the draft. If you kept a 3rd player you use that pick on the player. If you only kept 2 then you get to choose from non keepers including rookies. You'd think this leads to super teams but the turnover every year is very impressive. Every year the teams in the playoffs are mostly new and it is rare to win multiple championships. I really like it.


2-4 keeper players?

We do 1 keeper player drafted after the 3rd round, and you can designate him a keeper three times. In order to keep a player, you have to give up a draft pick one round higher than you drafted him and each subsequent season you have to give up a pick one round higher than the previous season. Oh yeah, you also have to pay a fee to keep a player...$10 first designation, $20 second, and $30 third. This increases our prize pot and makes managers really think hard about who they are going to keep (if they do in the first place).
RE: To the OP...  
allstarjim : 9/22/2022 3:04 pm : link
In comment 15827651 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
You have no top end talent. That's a brutal team in a 10 team league. Did you take over a dead team or something?


JFC I'm not going over it all again. Read the thread.
RE: To the OP...  
allstarjim : 9/22/2022 3:06 pm : link
In comment 15827651 Kmed6000 said:
Quote:
You have no top end talent. That's a brutal team in a 10 team league. Did you take over a dead team or something?


I'll take Courtland Sutton AND Christian Kirk on a per-game fantasy points basis from here on out over DeAndre Hopkins. Bet?
*per game played, too  
allstarjim : 9/22/2022 3:07 pm : link
so no penalty for Hopkins for missing his suspended games.
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