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Best QBs in the NFL- draft position

emcca005 : 9/22/2022 7:23 pm
I read a lot of comments about NYG not picking high enough to draft one of the premier prospects in 2023. While we all hope that’s ultimately true since it’ll reflect more success this season. I got to thinking who are the best QBs and what was the draft position they were taken.
Even if we nix Brady from the discussion because he’s the ultimate outlier off the top of my head I come up with in no particular order
Mahomes
Allen
Rodgers
Herbert
Then the discussion of the next tier begins for me. Of those top 4 none were top 5.
I guess my brain dump is more of *hitting on a QB is far from a perfect science
And ** with a deep class maybe the prized prospect ultimately falls to the NYG draft slot
Herbert was 6  
Mike in NY : 9/22/2022 7:26 pm : link
And there was a split in Miami about which QB to draft.

A QB is the most vital part, but few can do it in a vacuum. Most teams picking that high have a boatload of issues.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 9/22/2022 7:26 pm : link
I'm assuming this is current QBs no?

Look, Daboll is going to try to win games..  
Producer : 9/22/2022 7:34 pm : link
it is what it is. He seems to be on a pace to win at least 7 games. So we're probably going to pick somewhere between 9 and 13. Yea, history shows you might be able to get a great QB there. Someone with skills, but question marks, who exceeds expectations.
RE: ...  
emcca005 : 9/22/2022 7:37 pm : link
In comment 15827942 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I'm assuming this is current QBs no?


Yes current
RE: Herbert was 6  
emcca005 : 9/22/2022 7:39 pm : link
In comment 15827939 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
And there was a split in Miami about which QB to draft.

A QB is the most vital part, but few can do it in a vacuum. Most teams picking that high have a boatload of issues.


That’s kind of my point… 6 isn’t top 5 and because there was a split decision one of the QBs could slide just enough
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 9/22/2022 7:45 pm : link
If Herbert comes out in '19, I think he's a Giant if he's there @ 6, which I suspect he would have been.
Allen and herbert  
dancing blue bear : 9/22/2022 7:48 pm : link
Were the 3rd qb taken in their respective class. Mahommes and rogers were 2nd qb taken (Watson was 3rd in mahommes year)

Buffalo and kc traded up after a playoff season to get their guy.

You really get 1 shot at it as a coach (unless you’re winning).

Will it take some extra drafterium to get your guy. Sure. Won’t matter if they get it right

Live for today
RE: Allen and herbert  
emcca005 : 9/22/2022 7:52 pm : link
In comment 15827960 dancing blue bear said:
Quote:
Were the 3rd qb taken in their respective class. Mahommes and rogers were 2nd qb taken (Watson was 3rd in mahommes year)

Buffalo and kc traded up after a playoff season to get their guy.

You really get 1 shot at it as a coach (unless you’re winning).

Will it take some extra drafterium to get your guy. Sure. Won’t matter if they get it right

Live for today


Fully agree on the live for today. Ideally QB isn’t a concern or option come April because our guy has become the guy.
RE: Look, Daboll is going to try to win games..  
Brown_Hornet : 9/22/2022 7:53 pm : link
In comment 15827951 Producer said:
Quote:
it is what it is. He seems to be on a pace to win at least 7 games. So we're probably going to pick somewhere between 9 and 13. Yea, history shows you might be able to get a great QB there. Someone with skills, but question marks, who exceeds expectations.

If the Giants are in that spot they'll be able to trade up close enough to the draft slots other effective QBs have been taken.
Great post  
Sean : 9/22/2022 7:57 pm : link
Savvy GM’s maneuver the draft to get the QB they want regardless of position:

-LAR moved up for Goff
-PHI moved up for Wentz
-KC moved up for Mahomes
-NYJ moved up for Darnold
-BUF moved up for Allen
-BAL traded back into the late first for Jackson
-SF moved up for Lance
-CHI moved up for Fields

The fact is the Giants declined Jones option because they don’t believe in him to this point. This regime did not draft Jones. Schoen/Daboll will want to bring in their own QB, that QB will be much less expensive if secured via the draft which I think will happen. And, in order to get that guy I’d imagine they trade up.

I could easily see Schoen trading up a few weeks prior to the draft to secure a position to get one of the QB’s they like.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 9/22/2022 8:04 pm : link
Sean. I see Schoen moving up for a QB next spring.
so 7 teams moved up  
kelly : 9/22/2022 8:16 pm : link
and 2 quarterbacks were hits the other 5 were misses or have yet to prove themselves but aren't looking all that great.

2 out of 7 is about a 30% chance of success after moving up by giving up draft picks.

Those aren't great odds for all those who think moving up in the draft to get a quarterback is a sure thing.

Okay, I'm going Captain Obvious...  
bw in dc : 9/22/2022 8:25 pm : link
here.

The most important piece to finding the QB is you need a team of decision makers (GM, HC, OC, etc) who can identify the right prospect to develop and teach.

At the end of day, IMV, one of the most critical bullets points of Schoen's job description is to solve for the QB.

Otherwise, you have the wrong GM.
RE: so 7 teams moved up  
Sean : 9/22/2022 8:28 pm : link
In comment 15827976 kelly said:
Quote:
and 2 quarterbacks were hits the other 5 were misses or have yet to prove themselves but aren't looking all that great.

2 out of 7 is about a 30% chance of success after moving up by giving up draft picks.

Those aren't great odds for all those who think moving up in the draft to get a quarterback is a sure thing.

It’s a risk for sure. The Giants are still dealing with reaching on a QB in the 2019 draft.
the absolutists who insist you have to pick one in the top 5.......  
hassan : 9/23/2022 12:00 am : link
Brady, Wilson, Mahomes, Wentz/Foles, Flacco, Stafford,Rodgers. The current super bowl winners.

-two were 4th round or later
-one was picked 10th and one 18th
-one was picked first, but had to leave his original team to win-granted, that team gave up assets to get him that were significant
-one was picked second in a move up and worked out-but his late round pick won the game even if he got a win
one was picked 24th

this simple argument, really cuts through any idea that tanking, or trading up aggressively is so necessary to be successful overall.

For the Rams and to limited degree the Eagles, the trades up worked out.

For the other teams, the Pats, Packers, Ravens, Chiefs, Seahawks used later first and later round picks to acquire their signal caller.

i know we can point at Eli and Peyton in recent history as well, so it is simplistic, but its clear there is more than one way to skin a cat at the mantra a top 5 pick is where elite qbs come from is somewhat antiquated.
Moral of the story  
Spider43 : 9/23/2022 10:32 am : link
There are gems all over the draft. You are less likely to hit with a top five pick, than later in the draft. I am a contrarian by nature, and am skeptical every time we hear about 'can't-miss' or 'sure-fire'. I like Lawrence and think he's the real deal. Jury's still out on Burrow. Stafford seems worthy of the pick. But the landscape is also littered with the Alex Smith's of the world. You need the right eye, obviously. And I like thinking outside the box. The top five QB's in this league were all taken outside the top five picks. Slice and dice it however you want, but that's how it goes.
RE: so 7 teams moved up  
giantstock : 9/23/2022 3:25 pm : link
In comment 15827976 kelly said:
Quote:
and 2 quarterbacks were hits the other 5 were misses or have yet to prove themselves but aren't looking all that great.

2 out of 7 is about a 30% chance of success after moving up by giving up draft picks.

Those aren't great odds for all those who think moving up in the draft to get a quarterback is a sure thing.


It's not a sure thing but staying pat could be worse, right?
RE: so 7 teams moved up  
UConn4523 : 9/23/2022 3:35 pm : link
In comment 15827976 kelly said:
Quote:
and 2 quarterbacks were hits the other 5 were misses or have yet to prove themselves but aren't looking all that great.

2 out of 7 is about a 30% chance of success after moving up by giving up draft picks.

Those aren't great odds for all those who think moving up in the draft to get a quarterback is a sure thing.


I think its more than just the player. Which franchises that took QB's set them up to succeed and which didn't? We can talk about talent all day long but if you go to a crappy franchise with a coaching staff in disarray you are going to hurt, not help the new QB. I'm not suggesting that a Sam Darnold is now an all pro if he was playing for Andy Reid - but I can almost guaranteed he'd have a hell of a lot better chance to learn, grown and succeed.

I care more about having the right coaches and system than I do about getting the next great QB to come out of college. If we hired the right guys they will be able to get someone outside of the top 5 and make it work.
I don't have the stats  
fkap : 9/24/2022 9:15 am : link
but I am guessing that the higher the draft position, the higher the rate of success. There's a lot of lower first round and below QBs taken as fliers that don't pan out. Probably way more taken there, than upper first round.

To do the math properly, you need to know the total number of QBs taken vs the number that are successful.

For the most part, a successful NFL QB is a rarity. So, no matter where you're picking, prepare to miss more than hit. There are some who advocate picking a QB every year, or two. There are pros and cons to that approach. I wouldn't do it every year, or if one you've drafted is looking good. But I wouldn't be shy about drafting one relatively quickly if the current QB is still questionable AND you have a decent conviction on a draftee. NO fliers.
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