This one doesn't seem to be getting too much national attention, but it's shaping up as potentially the worst hurricane to hit Florida in years. While the GFS (US) forecast has it striking up in the panhandle of Florida, the European model has it on course to make landfall in the Sarasota/Bradenton area just below Tampa (I am on a barrier island off of Sarasota). Any Gulf Coast/BBI members in pants-shitting mode over this?
Hoping for the best on this one.
It appears to be headed for the big bend or the panhandle, but the cone is so wide who knows?
Being just north of Savannah Ga, on the SC coast. This storm is going to affect us one way or the other. I'd prefer to be on the western side of the storm and not the eastern side. Still a number of day to keep watch on it, hopefully the track will shift back to the east.
We will prep the yard and what not throughout the early start of the week. We are semi stocked with food already being we are in hurricane season.
Time will tell who strong the storm might be and if we stay or evacuate to the mountains
Visiting Cap Cana, as in the DR? You might want to double check, prior to traveling, as Fiona had a good deal of impact down that way.
Being just north of Savannah Ga, on the SC coast. This storm is going to affect us one way or the other. I'd prefer to be on the western side of the storm and not the eastern side. Still a number of day to keep watch on it, hopefully the track will shift back to the east.
We will prep the yard and what not throughout the early start of the week. We are semi stocked with food already being we are in hurricane season.
Time will tell who strong the storm might be and if we stay or evacuate to the mountains
Visiting Cap Cana, as in the DR? You might want to double check, prior to traveling, as Fiona had a good deal of impact down that way.
Keeping an eye on it as well, we are bit further north than you (Summerville, SC) but you never know with these things.
Tropical Tidbits was saying that it will weaken the further North in the Gulf it goes because of the cooler drier air coming in from the High over the mid-west and upper level shear from the NE.
I'm on the SE Coast of FL and loaded up on some generator gas already, because hurricanes are unpredictable.
Yes, FL West Coast needs to be wary and the Big Bend/Alabama Coast need to get ready, IMHO.
Be safe everyone!
Be safe everyone!
That will update around 5:00. I would guess that it's going to show a jog easterly.
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predicted path, still
That will update around 5:00. I would guess that it's going to show a jog easterly.
The main updates are at 2 & 8.
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In comment 15829984 section125 said:
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predicted path, still
That will update around 5:00. I would guess that it's going to show a jog easterly.
The main updates are at 2 & 8.
True.
Yep...Just the facts, ma'am....
Out of the frying pan and into the fire....right on the edge on the cone of uncertainty.
Been through a lot sadly. Wilma did 10 k damage. Mostly to my roof
While never telling anyone to take these likely you need to just be smart. Always have propane or a charcoal and a grill. Freeze lots of water. Why people go buy water or ice amazes me. For years. It’s stupid. Save and wash Empty soda or milk jugs. If you really do get his if you have enough ice you can keep a cooler and your refrigerator cold for days.
I won’t get into generators but having one obviously helps. This one now looks to be weakening. First major storm that might hit the US. People are tired of hearing bad news on the economy and all the other politicAl crap so the news outlets are going to pump these stories. Legit or not. I pray for all bit being prepared isn’t hard
If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?
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and I'm supposed to arrive late Sept 30th, a few days before our belongings and the rest of the family. I hope there is a place to go to when I get there. Yikes. Then again, this is on par with how this year has gone otherwise, so I maybe shouldn't be surprised.
If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?
FYI, Frances, Jean and Wilma ran directly over my house - right in the eye and I lost on roof tile - but a bunch of trees. House was built in 1996.
Did you buy a mobile home or something?
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In comment 15830195 BobR in Durham said:
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and I'm supposed to arrive late Sept 30th, a few days before our belongings and the rest of the family. I hope there is a place to go to when I get there. Yikes. Then again, this is on par with how this year has gone otherwise, so I maybe shouldn't be surprised.
If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?
FYI, Frances, Jean and Wilma ran directly over my house - right in the eye and I lost on roof tile - but a bunch of trees. House was built in 1996.
Yeh it kinda blows my mind people don’t understand the dangers of hurricanes to their house when they live here or recently moved. Unless you live in a mobile home park or directly on beach dealing with storm surge there’s really no issue outside some minor damage. The biggest issue is losing power for days which sucks, but hurricanes aren’t tornadoes.
Then again, it is Florida, so I did sign up for this.
Then again, it is Florida, so I did sign up for this.
Unless you are on the river or the coast it should be fine(flood or surge). Yes rain can find its' way through bad gaskets.
Welcome to Florida...
I hope so--our house was built in 2013, but I'm two blocks from the Gulf. The eye of Irma passed us just a few miles to the east, so there was no real storm surge, but 100mph wind gusts. There were a few limbs down but the house was fine. What scares the hell out of me with this one is the storm surge potential. One thing that all the models seem to agree upon is that this one will be a category 3 when it's parallel to Sarasota/Bradenton.
It seems to me that Irma and then the one we had in November '20 got much more hype. I didn't go to the supermarket on our island today, but one of my neighbors mentioned that there were no lines, no empty shelves, and nothing that would lead you to believe there was a major hurricane two days away.
No ocean and it gets cold in winter.
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If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?
I hope so--our house was built in 2013, but I'm two blocks from the Gulf. The eye of Irma passed us just a few miles to the east, so there was no real storm surge, but 100mph wind gusts. There were a few limbs down but the house was fine. What scares the hell out of me with this one is the storm surge potential. One thing that all the models seem to agree upon is that this one will be a category 3 when it's parallel to Sarasota/Bradenton.
It seems to me that Irma and then the one we had in November '20 got much more hype. I didn't go to the supermarket on our island today, but one of my neighbors mentioned that there were no lines, no empty shelves, and nothing that would lead you to believe there was a major hurricane two days away.
House isn't elevated = built on pilons?
Bingo! We once packed up the kids and went to Disney for 3 days while the power was out! 2004 IIRC.
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In comment 15830198 section125 said:
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If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?
I hope so--our house was built in 2013, but I'm two blocks from the Gulf. The eye of Irma passed us just a few miles to the east, so there was no real storm surge, but 100mph wind gusts. There were a few limbs down but the house was fine. What scares the hell out of me with this one is the storm surge potential. One thing that all the models seem to agree upon is that this one will be a category 3 when it's parallel to Sarasota/Bradenton.
It seems to me that Irma and then the one we had in November '20 got much more hype. I didn't go to the supermarket on our island today, but one of my neighbors mentioned that there were no lines, no empty shelves, and nothing that would lead you to believe there was a major hurricane two days away.
House isn't elevated = built on pilons?
Yes of course--living quarters are 12ft above sea level per code. Our cars, everything else in the garages, and the mini split-cooled room behind the one garage will be trashed.
I wish I understood the science behind predicting how weather that is just a tropical storm right now between Jamaica & Central America will develop into a category 3 hurricane in two days and head into the Florida peninsula.
Yes of course--living quarters are 12ft above sea level per code. Our cars, everything else in the garages, and the mini split-cooled room behind the one garage will be trashed.
I wish I understood the science behind predicting how weather that is just a tropical storm right now between Jamaica & Central America will develop into a category 3 hurricane in two days and head into the Florida peninsula.
Watch a youtuber "Tropical Tidbits" . He explains things in detail.
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Yes of course--living quarters are 12ft above sea level per code. Our cars, everything else in the garages, and the mini split-cooled room behind the one garage will be trashed.
I wish I understood the science behind predicting how weather that is just a tropical storm right now between Jamaica & Central America will develop into a category 3 hurricane in two days and head into the Florida peninsula.
Watch a youtuber "Tropical Tidbits" . He explains things in detail.
Agreed. Levi is outstanding.
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No hurricanes out here, no humidity either
No ocean and it gets cold in winter.
Define cold
A little closer to Florida West Coast
Tropical Tidbits Sunday Ian,,, - ( New Window )
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In comment 15830232 Snablats said:
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No hurricanes out here, no humidity either
No ocean and it gets cold in winter.
Define cold
Below 60, but AZ gets colder than that
And to live where grunnings does is even crazier!
Plus the brutal humidity
Everyone loves tropical tidbits but I think he's wrong as often or more than anyone. He seems to run with the most shocking model to get clicks and it rarely works out. He had us getting the direct hit a few days back. Last year every minor storm he had coming over the Keys as well. Many times one of my captains shows me "what's coming" when no other site does and it always fizzles. He makes a good explanation, and maybe no one can really predict anything. My go to site is the RAL site Section 125 shared years ago. Follow the data and make your own determination. Be safe west coasters and good luck.
And to live where grunnings does is even crazier!
Plus the brutal humidity
The ocean keeps it cooler in summer and warmer in the winter. Yes it is humid and that sucks. But that is why there is A/C just like they do in AZ.
Hurricanes happen very infrequently.
There are more frequent fires, mudslides and floods in CA then Florida has bad weather. Midwest has loads of tornados. Every area has its' drawbacks. You have pick your poison.
Actually, the worst part is the ridiculous insurance rates.
This sucks.
I get the insurance issues. In LA I had to pay extra for earthquake coverage every year. Mudslides are less common than hurricanes and hurt far fewer people. Same for wildfires, you don't have them where 95% of the people live
Everyone loves tropical tidbits but I think he's wrong as often or more than anyone. He seems to run with the most shocking model to get clicks and it rarely works out. He had us getting the direct hit a few days back. Last year every minor storm he had coming over the Keys as well. Many times one of my captains shows me "what's coming" when no other site does and it always fizzles. He makes a good explanation, and maybe no one can really predict anything. My go to site is the RAL site Section 125 shared years ago. Follow the data and make your own determination. Be safe west coasters and good luck.
Yes RAL is great and I do check it every day twice. Every meteorologist makes some wrong calls and I doubt Levi overestimates his predictions for clicks. You do know NHC really only can count on "accuracy" out to 72 hrs. 120 hrs is like under 50%, IIRC. And I know you know about 30 miles is the difference in hurricane force winds and "only" 45/50 kts. And if you are 60 miles away on the West side you may only have gale force winds and significantly less rain.
NHC does their best and they do err on the side of caution. To each his own. I like Levi better than NHC, but it is like do you like Mint Chocolate Chip or Pistachio ice cream? But I do look at both and decide whether I get the shutters out or not. Looks like I will not need them on the East Coast.
I get the insurance issues. In LA I had to pay extra for earthquake coverage every year. Mudslides are less common than hurricanes and hurt far fewer people. Same for wildfires, you don't have them where 95% of the people live
I prefer Florida and he ocean. Been near the water my entire life. Grew up in NJ, so I am use to humidity. 90 and humid is 90 and humid. I just lasts longer in FL.
I also bitterly hate the cold. If I never saw below 50 again, it would be too soon.
This sucks.
Need to keep an eye on the tide for when that happens. And yeh looks like this is most likely going to have 8-12 ft storm surge unless it tracks way west.
I get the insurance issues. In LA I had to pay extra for earthquake coverage every year. Mudslides are less common than hurricanes and hurt far fewer people. Same for wildfires, you don't have them where 95% of the people live
Southwest isn’t going to have any water soon. So there’s that.
And to live where grunnings does is even crazier!
Plus the brutal humidity
I'm outside of Phoenix and a handful of days in the winter it gets into the low 30s overnight. We need to cover our plants to keep them from the frost. The days are in the 40s or 50s. And the humidity is not low like in the old days when people were sent out here if they had respiratory issues- it's now in the 60-70 % range quite often. The humidity was lower when I was in Utah.
There aren't hurricanes every year in the same place....huge difference. There is about 2000 miles of coastline from Virginia to Brownsville Texas and a few hit somewhere along that coastline during a year...Some years you may have two or three close to you. Most years you get none.
But too each his own.
According to this site, the humidity here is over 40% 220 days a year and over 60% 90 days, or about 25% of the time. According to my sweaty shirts, I think it's higher.
Link - ( New Window )
second, the lows in the high 30s a couple nights a year are at 4am, so who gives a crap
third, tell me when is the humidity 60% or higher? What time of day? Cause it sure aint when people are awake, and it sure aint here in the city unless a thunderstorm rolls through for an hour or so
We get humidty from Mid July into September, its called the monsoon season. and the humidity during the day is usually 35% or less, but it feels worse because we arent used to it. Other than that it aint humid here
Facts
So 112 degrees is really cool!
Link - ( New Window )
Good luck Grunings. Be safe!
I'm in southeat FL, Lake Worth, about 10 miles north of Boynton Beach and DelRay.
It's 8:00pm, and it's starting to get windy in spurts and gusts.
I wonder how the rest of you are doing? Especially those in northwest
FL?
Dennis
Wonder how Capt Don is down in the Keys.
Good luck to the West Coast BBI'ers. My F-I-L is up in central FL, NE of Orlando and did not want to come down to Martin County with us. Looks like he'll get a T/S. Brother in Jax...
We've been getting rain all day...refill the aquifers. No golf this week.
I'm in southeat FL, Lake Worth, about 10 miles north of Boynton Beach and DelRay.
It's 8:00pm, and it's starting to get windy in spurts and gusts.
I wonder how the rest of you are doing? Especially those in northwest
FL?
Dennis
We are down in Boca. Was really surprised to just hear our phones all go blaring for the tornado warning. Funniest part about it was my wife after reading the alert goes "basement? How do you suggest we get into a basement?!"
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I thought it might be time to resurrect the hurricane thread.
I'm in southeat FL, Lake Worth, about 10 miles north of Boynton Beach and DelRay.
It's 8:00pm, and it's starting to get windy in spurts and gusts.
I wonder how the rest of you are doing? Especially those in northwest
FL?
Dennis
We are down in Boca. Was really surprised to just hear our phones all go blaring for the tornado warning. Funniest part about it was my wife after reading the alert goes "basement? How do you suggest we get into a basement?!"
Dig quickly???
Wonder how Capt Don is down in the Keys.
Good luck to the West Coast BBI'ers. My F-I-L is up in central FL, NE of Orlando and did not want to come down to Martin County with us. Looks like he'll get a T/S. Brother in Jax...
We've been getting rain all day...refill the aquifers. No golf this week.
The Euro only gets acclaim because it killed it one year. The GFS beat the Euro last year. Either way, it is pretty riduclous how the three majors get us very close to where they are gonna be at.
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In comment 15835950 Dennis said:
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I thought it might be time to resurrect the hurricane thread.
I'm in southeat FL, Lake Worth, about 10 miles north of Boynton Beach and DelRay.
It's 8:00pm, and it's starting to get windy in spurts and gusts.
I wonder how the rest of you are doing? Especially those in northwest
FL?
Dennis
We are down in Boca. Was really surprised to just hear our phones all go blaring for the tornado warning. Funniest part about it was my wife after reading the alert goes "basement? How do you suggest we get into a basement?!"
Dig quickly???
LOL!
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I thought it might be time to resurrect the hurricane thread.
I'm in southeat FL, Lake Worth, about 10 miles north of Boynton Beach and DelRay.
It's 8:00pm, and it's starting to get windy in spurts and gusts.
I wonder how the rest of you are doing? Especially those in northwest
FL?
Dennis
We are down in Boca. Was really surprised to just hear our phones all go blaring for the tornado warning. Funniest part about it was my wife after reading the alert goes "basement? How do you suggest we get into a basement?!"
My phone did the same thing. Scared the shit out of me. Thought it was the end of the world. Maybe....?
You are all in my prayers(like that means a lot).
Dennis
GFS has not been as accurate as Euro - and was out by half the length of FL on Ian, which is pretty big. BUT, big but, NHC really is only confident in the last 72 hours for accuracy. Living here for 27 years now, close enough is good by me. I can decide my actions inside 72 hours.
30 to 50 miles is the difference of getting the eye and hurricane winds and being in 50 kt winds.
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generally get it off by maybe 30-50 miles at most for the three majors. Americans are pretty insufferable for the expecatations of shit.
GFS has not been as accurate as Euro - and was out by half the length of FL on Ian, which is pretty big. BUT, big but, NHC really is only confident in the last 72 hours for accuracy. Living here for 27 years now, close enough is good by me. I can decide my actions inside 72 hours.
30 to 50 miles is the difference of getting the eye and hurricane winds and being in 50 kt winds.
Like say tampa to Sarasota which put my area in the oh shit zone
You are all in my prayers(like that means a lot).
Dennis
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I wish you to be safe and well through this weather event.
You are all in my prayers(like that means a lot).
Dennis
thanks Dennis, it does. Good luck and best wishes to my fellow Floridians. Wind starting to pick up here in Naples
Ahh...Naples. I almost moved there when I moved to FL. Beautiful city.
Key West is taking it much worse I believe, i hope you are dry CAPT. Best of luck to everyone on the west coast, it's going to suck.
They really have this thing diminishing quickly after landfall. Slowing to a crawl and making surge worse for the West Coasters.
Last time Jim C as in downtown Stuart(couple year back), there was not much happening. A golf buddy's wife saw him and the crew filming - hardly any wind and no rain. They actually had a crewmember dousing him with spray from a hose to simulate rain...
Prayers for those from Sarasota down to Naples. They are about to get pummeled. 😢
Some gusts of wind; last night some tornadoes came through several miles away, but so far, that's it.
I hope that everyone is northwest FL is OK?
Dennis
And one of these days soon, no water right?
so now my wife and mother in law are going to be worried for the next 24 to 48 hours
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No hurricanes out here, no humidity either
And one of these days soon, no water right?
Im not going to derail this important thread on the day of the hurricane. But no one here in the southwest is worried about water, except climate change alarmists
Best wishes to our West Coast neighbors.
Not my fault you are a clueless dope
Prayers for those from Sarasota down to Naples. They are about to get pummeled. 😢
Glad to hear that Tony! Hope you guys keep staying out of it. Looks catastrophic for the Port Charlotte/Ft. Meyers crowd.
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The track has shifted far enough south that this will be mostly a rain event for us. We’ll see tropical storm winds but not more than that. We’ll get about 8 inches of rain in the next 24 hours with some more after that.
Prayers for those from Sarasota down to Naples. They are about to get pummeled. 😢
Glad to hear that Tony! Hope you guys keep staying out of it. Looks catastrophic for the Port Charlotte/Ft. Meyers crowd.
Hey buddy! Your family in NPR make it thru OK? We got lucky in this area. Just some light rain continuing and medium winds… gusts to about 60 mph. Very sad situation in Ft Myers.
And if that wasn’t enough about an hour north of me had a dam fail last night putting 5 feet in the area. Friends up there said they were pulling kids bodies out from this.