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NFT: Hurricane Ian

GruningsOnTheHill : 9/25/2022 12:16 pm
This one doesn't seem to be getting too much national attention, but it's shaping up as potentially the worst hurricane to hit Florida in years. While the GFS (US) forecast has it striking up in the panhandle of Florida, the European model has it on course to make landfall in the Sarasota/Bradenton area just below Tampa (I am on a barrier island off of Sarasota). Any Gulf Coast/BBI members in pants-shitting mode over this?
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Ian Path  
US1 Giants : 9/25/2022 12:19 pm : link
I am very worried  
Jay on the Island : 9/25/2022 12:20 pm : link
I live on Long Island but my in-laws live in Florida. I am going to Cap Cana on Sunday and my mother and father in law are staying at my house watching my kids for the week and now we are all worried that they might not be able to fly out. Luckily they don't have to worry about flooding because they live in Boynton Beach.
I live in Parrish,  
bLiTz 2k : 9/25/2022 12:21 pm : link
And work in Bradenton..all things considered it looks like we are clear from potential flooding at home, but I would be lying if I said it's not concerning.

Hoping for the best on this one.
I spent most of the weekend getting the plan together  
Ben in Tampa : 9/25/2022 12:31 pm : link
But Im playing it cool until we get a better idea of it’s path.

It appears to be headed for the big bend or the panhandle, but the cone is so wide who knows?
It has my attention  
SCGiantsFan : 9/25/2022 12:37 pm : link
even caught my eye a day or so ago.

Being just north of Savannah Ga, on the SC coast. This storm is going to affect us one way or the other. I'd prefer to be on the western side of the storm and not the eastern side. Still a number of day to keep watch on it, hopefully the track will shift back to the east.

We will prep the yard and what not throughout the early start of the week. We are semi stocked with food already being we are in hurricane season.

Time will tell who strong the storm might be and if we stay or evacuate to the mountains

Visiting Cap Cana, as in the DR? You might want to double check, prior to traveling, as Fiona had a good deal of impact down that way.
Pants shitting mode? Too early (unless you live in a mobile home)  
Returning Video Tapes : 9/25/2022 12:41 pm : link
and even if I still lived on beach storm surge damage is dependent on tide. Plus we still are 3 days out and it hasn’t passed Cuba yet. Have a couple days rations but if it looks like a direct hit I’ll go and grab a few more days.
RE: It has my attention  
jvm52106 : 9/25/2022 12:44 pm : link
In comment 15829840 SCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
even caught my eye a day or so ago.

Being just north of Savannah Ga, on the SC coast. This storm is going to affect us one way or the other. I'd prefer to be on the western side of the storm and not the eastern side. Still a number of day to keep watch on it, hopefully the track will shift back to the east.

We will prep the yard and what not throughout the early start of the week. We are semi stocked with food already being we are in hurricane season.

Time will tell who strong the storm might be and if we stay or evacuate to the mountains

Visiting Cap Cana, as in the DR? You might want to double check, prior to traveling, as Fiona had a good deal of impact down that way.


Keeping an eye on it as well, we are bit further north than you (Summerville, SC) but you never know with these things.
Varying Models  
GruningsOnTheHill : 9/25/2022 12:56 pm : link
Just as US1 Giants points out above, the US model has this making landfall up in Florida's "Big Bend" section, though of course the east/northeast side of a hurricane is the dirty side that receives the tide surge. While the US model has been drifting out west into the Gulf with every update, the European model has basically been unchanged over the past few days with a strike just below Tampa. The Euro model has proven to be the more accurate of the two, so I feel like I'm whistling past the graveyard by hoping it will track into the Gulf. In terms of "preparing," I'm never quite sure what that means. We have hurricane-proof windows and doors, two cases of water, and a stocked pantry. No call for evacuation on my barrier island...yet.
European Forecast  
GruningsOnTheHill : 9/25/2022 12:57 pm : link
Moved to St Augustine  
LG in NYC : 9/25/2022 1:15 pm : link
In June and yea, kind of wondering what to expect. Most are telling me we are unlikely to get a direct hit but still…
The trend has been leaking  
section125 : 9/25/2022 1:21 pm : link
to the west and the models are starting to align to the Big Bend area of FL.
Tropical Tidbits was saying that it will weaken the further North in the Gulf it goes because of the cooler drier air coming in from the High over the mid-west and upper level shear from the NE.
I'm on the SE Coast of FL and loaded up on some generator gas already, because hurricanes are unpredictable.

Yes, FL West Coast needs to be wary and the Big Bend/Alabama Coast need to get ready, IMHO.
North Pinellas County here (near Tarpon Springs)  
tony stg : 9/25/2022 2:40 pm : link
I’m prepping as though it’s coming here. Stocked up on supplies. Most of the Lexan hurricane panels are up. Have a whole house generator so I’m good there. Even though the NHC cone has been drifting west over the last day’s worth of runs, the Euro model still has it coming right over Tampa Bay. I’ll breath easier when/if the Euro trends west.

Be safe everyone!
A lot of people move to Florida knowing that there will be hurricanes  
US1 Giants : 9/25/2022 2:43 pm : link
every year. It must be a great place to willingly accept those risks.

Be safe everyone!
Seems to be on NHC's  
section125 : 9/25/2022 2:47 pm : link
predicted path, still

Fort Myers here...about 3 miles  
beechbouy : 9/25/2022 2:52 pm : link
from the Gulf as the crow flies. Hoping it's no worse than Irma (no major personal damage but without power for 14 days). Get a little PTSD trigger after Irma whenever this happens.
RE: Seems to be on NHC's  
beechbouy : 9/25/2022 2:53 pm : link
In comment 15829984 section125 said:
Quote:
predicted path, still



That will update around 5:00. I would guess that it's going to show a jog easterly.
RE: RE: Seems to be on NHC's  
section125 : 9/25/2022 2:55 pm : link
In comment 15829994 beechbouy said:
Quote:
In comment 15829984 section125 said:


Quote:


predicted path, still





That will update around 5:00. I would guess that it's going to show a jog easterly.


The main updates are at 2 & 8.
RE: RE: RE: Seems to be on NHC's  
beechbouy : 9/25/2022 2:56 pm : link
In comment 15829997 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15829994 beechbouy said:


Quote:


In comment 15829984 section125 said:


Quote:


predicted path, still





That will update around 5:00. I would guess that it's going to show a jog easterly.



The main updates are at 2 & 8.



True.
NH C  
HomerJones45 : 9/25/2022 4:53 pm : link
Updates their advisory every 3 hours. Next is due at 5 pm Eastern. They have a variety of charts showing projected wind speeds, timing, etc. they also show the potential tracks using different models. I find it more informative and less hysterical than weather channels
RE: NH C  
section125 : 9/25/2022 5:44 pm : link
In comment 15830105 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
Updates their advisory every 3 hours. Next is due at 5 pm Eastern. They have a variety of charts showing projected wind speeds, timing, etc. they also show the potential tracks using different models. I find it more informative and less hysterical than weather channels


Yep...Just the facts, ma'am....
Cape Coral  
Chris in San Diego : 9/25/2022 5:56 pm : link
My best friend just moved there...and he is worried. His house in Lavellette NJ was destroyed by Sandy
RE: Cape Coral  
section125 : 9/25/2022 5:59 pm : link
In comment 15830189 Chris in San Diego said:
Quote:
My best friend just moved there...and he is worried. His house in Lavellette NJ was destroyed by Sandy


Out of the frying pan and into the fire....right on the edge on the cone of uncertainty.
Been in Fl since the early 90s  
LauderdaleMatty : 9/25/2022 6:01 pm : link
My first was Andrew. 11 days no power. Cold showers. Watching other get their power and we sat in the dark. We did have lots of beer.

Been through a lot sadly. Wilma did 10 k damage. Mostly to my roof

While never telling anyone to take these likely you need to just be smart. Always have propane or a charcoal and a grill. Freeze lots of water. Why people go buy water or ice amazes me. For years. It’s stupid. Save and wash Empty soda or milk jugs. If you really do get his if you have enough ice you can keep a cooler and your refrigerator cold for days.

I won’t get into generators but having one obviously helps. This one now looks to be weakening. First major storm that might hit the US. People are tired of hearing bad news on the economy and all the other politicAl crap so the news outlets are going to pump these stories. Legit or not. I pray for all bit being prepared isn’t hard
We just bought a place in Sarasota  
BobR in Durham : 9/25/2022 6:02 pm : link
and I'm supposed to arrive late Sept 30th, a few days before our belongings and the rest of the family. I hope there is a place to go to when I get there. Yikes. Then again, this is on par with how this year has gone otherwise, so I maybe shouldn't be surprised.
RE: We just bought a place in Sarasota  
section125 : 9/25/2022 6:05 pm : link
In comment 15830195 BobR in Durham said:
Quote:
and I'm supposed to arrive late Sept 30th, a few days before our belongings and the rest of the family. I hope there is a place to go to when I get there. Yikes. Then again, this is on par with how this year has gone otherwise, so I maybe shouldn't be surprised.


If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?
RE: RE: We just bought a place in Sarasota  
section125 : 9/25/2022 6:07 pm : link
In comment 15830198 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15830195 BobR in Durham said:


Quote:


and I'm supposed to arrive late Sept 30th, a few days before our belongings and the rest of the family. I hope there is a place to go to when I get there. Yikes. Then again, this is on par with how this year has gone otherwise, so I maybe shouldn't be surprised.



If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?


FYI, Frances, Jean and Wilma ran directly over my house - right in the eye and I lost on roof tile - but a bunch of trees. House was built in 1996.
RE: We just bought a place in Sarasota  
Returning Video Tapes : 9/25/2022 6:08 pm : link
In comment 15830195 BobR in Durham said:
Quote:
and I'm supposed to arrive late Sept 30th, a few days before our belongings and the rest of the family. I hope there is a place to go to when I get there. Yikes. Then again, this is on par with how this year has gone otherwise, so I maybe shouldn't be surprised.


Did you buy a mobile home or something?
RE: RE: RE: We just bought a place in Sarasota  
Returning Video Tapes : 9/25/2022 6:12 pm : link
In comment 15830201 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15830198 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 15830195 BobR in Durham said:


Quote:


and I'm supposed to arrive late Sept 30th, a few days before our belongings and the rest of the family. I hope there is a place to go to when I get there. Yikes. Then again, this is on par with how this year has gone otherwise, so I maybe shouldn't be surprised.



If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?



FYI, Frances, Jean and Wilma ran directly over my house - right in the eye and I lost on roof tile - but a bunch of trees. House was built in 1996.


Yeh it kinda blows my mind people don’t understand the dangers of hurricanes to their house when they live here or recently moved. Unless you live in a mobile home park or directly on beach dealing with storm surge there’s really no issue outside some minor damage. The biggest issue is losing power for days which sucks, but hurricanes aren’t tornadoes.
Thanks, guys. I was being overly dramatic.  
BobR in Durham : 9/25/2022 6:15 pm : link
It's in a 6-story mid-rise, so should be relatively protected. But I am worried about about water penetration from the balcony door, which needs repair, and a 1st floor street entrance. Just had the place painted and new flooring put in, and don't like the prospect of getting that done again.
Then again, it is Florida, so I did sign up for this.
RE: Thanks, guys. I was being overly dramatic.  
section125 : 9/25/2022 6:21 pm : link
In comment 15830215 BobR in Durham said:
Quote:
It's in a 6-story mid-rise, so should be relatively protected. But I am worried about about water penetration from the balcony door, which needs repair, and a 1st floor street entrance. Just had the place painted and new flooring put in, and don't like the prospect of getting that done again.
Then again, it is Florida, so I did sign up for this.


Unless you are on the river or the coast it should be fine(flood or surge). Yes rain can find its' way through bad gaskets.
Welcome to Florida...
RE: RE: We just bought a place in Sarasota  
GruningsOnTheHill : 9/25/2022 6:37 pm : link
In comment 15830198 section125 said:
Quote:
If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?

I hope so--our house was built in 2013, but I'm two blocks from the Gulf. The eye of Irma passed us just a few miles to the east, so there was no real storm surge, but 100mph wind gusts. There were a few limbs down but the house was fine. What scares the hell out of me with this one is the storm surge potential. One thing that all the models seem to agree upon is that this one will be a category 3 when it's parallel to Sarasota/Bradenton.

It seems to me that Irma and then the one we had in November '20 got much more hype. I didn't go to the supermarket on our island today, but one of my neighbors mentioned that there were no lines, no empty shelves, and nothing that would lead you to believe there was a major hurricane two days away.
Not sure why people move to Florida instead of the southwest  
Snablats : 9/25/2022 6:37 pm : link
No hurricanes out here, no humidity either
RE: Not sure why people move to Florida instead of the southwest  
section125 : 9/25/2022 6:45 pm : link
In comment 15830232 Snablats said:
Quote:
No hurricanes out here, no humidity either


No ocean and it gets cold in winter.
RE: RE: RE: We just bought a place in Sarasota  
section125 : 9/25/2022 6:50 pm : link
In comment 15830230 GruningsOnTheHill said:
Quote:
In comment 15830198 section125 said:


Quote:


If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?


I hope so--our house was built in 2013, but I'm two blocks from the Gulf. The eye of Irma passed us just a few miles to the east, so there was no real storm surge, but 100mph wind gusts. There were a few limbs down but the house was fine. What scares the hell out of me with this one is the storm surge potential. One thing that all the models seem to agree upon is that this one will be a category 3 when it's parallel to Sarasota/Bradenton.

It seems to me that Irma and then the one we had in November '20 got much more hype. I didn't go to the supermarket on our island today, but one of my neighbors mentioned that there were no lines, no empty shelves, and nothing that would lead you to believe there was a major hurricane two days away.


House isn't elevated = built on pilons?
Floridians don’t fear Hurricanes  
Ben in Tampa : 9/25/2022 6:54 pm : link
But we do fear 14 days with no power and no AC with 100% humidity
RE: Floridians don’t fear Hurricanes  
section125 : 9/25/2022 6:57 pm : link
In comment 15830246 Ben in Tampa said:
Quote:
But we do fear 14 days with no power and no AC with 100% humidity


Bingo! We once packed up the kids and went to Disney for 3 days while the power was out! 2004 IIRC.
In SWFL  
RDJR : 9/25/2022 7:36 pm : link
Concerned yes. Started on Friday. Felt better this morning, but all day models have started to trend East again, so I’m in wait and see mode. Will know more tomorrow for sure. Hillsborough (Tampa) County has canceled school for Tuesday and Wednesday. BTW - The full NHC updates occur at 5 a.m., 11 a.m, 5 p.m., 11 p.m., the 8 a.m, 2 p.m, 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. are interim updates. They do not typically include changes to the forecast track.
RE: RE: RE: RE: We just bought a place in Sarasota  
GruningsOnTheHill : 9/25/2022 7:42 pm : link
In comment 15830243 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15830230 GruningsOnTheHill said:


Quote:


In comment 15830198 section125 said:


Quote:


If the house was built after 1992, it will likely be fine, even if he eye runs it over. Is somebody there to put up the shutters?


I hope so--our house was built in 2013, but I'm two blocks from the Gulf. The eye of Irma passed us just a few miles to the east, so there was no real storm surge, but 100mph wind gusts. There were a few limbs down but the house was fine. What scares the hell out of me with this one is the storm surge potential. One thing that all the models seem to agree upon is that this one will be a category 3 when it's parallel to Sarasota/Bradenton.

It seems to me that Irma and then the one we had in November '20 got much more hype. I didn't go to the supermarket on our island today, but one of my neighbors mentioned that there were no lines, no empty shelves, and nothing that would lead you to believe there was a major hurricane two days away.



House isn't elevated = built on pilons?

Yes of course--living quarters are 12ft above sea level per code. Our cars, everything else in the garages, and the mini split-cooled room behind the one garage will be trashed.

I wish I understood the science behind predicting how weather that is just a tropical storm right now between Jamaica & Central America will develop into a category 3 hurricane in two days and head into the Florida peninsula.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: We just bought a place in Sarasota  
section125 : 9/25/2022 7:47 pm : link
In comment 15830291 GruningsOnTheHill said:
Quote:

Yes of course--living quarters are 12ft above sea level per code. Our cars, everything else in the garages, and the mini split-cooled room behind the one garage will be trashed.

I wish I understood the science behind predicting how weather that is just a tropical storm right now between Jamaica & Central America will develop into a category 3 hurricane in two days and head into the Florida peninsula.


Watch a youtuber "Tropical Tidbits" . He explains things in detail.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: We just bought a place in Sarasota  
RDJR : 9/25/2022 8:30 pm : link
In comment 15830296 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15830291 GruningsOnTheHill said:


Quote:



Yes of course--living quarters are 12ft above sea level per code. Our cars, everything else in the garages, and the mini split-cooled room behind the one garage will be trashed.

I wish I understood the science behind predicting how weather that is just a tropical storm right now between Jamaica & Central America will develop into a category 3 hurricane in two days and head into the Florida peninsula.



Watch a youtuber "Tropical Tidbits" . He explains things in detail.


Agreed. Levi is outstanding.
RE: RE: Not sure why people move to Florida instead of the southwest  
Snablats : 9/25/2022 9:12 pm : link
In comment 15830238 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 15830232 Snablats said:


Quote:


No hurricanes out here, no humidity either



No ocean and it gets cold in winter.

Define cold
Tropical Tidbits  
section125 : 9/25/2022 9:13 pm : link
Sunday evening reports

A little closer to Florida West Coast
Tropical Tidbits Sunday Ian,,, - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: Not sure why people move to Florida instead of the southwest  
section125 : 9/25/2022 9:13 pm : link
In comment 15830370 Snablats said:
Quote:
In comment 15830238 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 15830232 Snablats said:


Quote:


No hurricanes out here, no humidity either



No ocean and it gets cold in winter.


Define cold


Below 60, but AZ gets colder than that
Phoenix is in the 50s some days in the winter  
Snablats : 9/25/2022 9:20 pm : link
I get the ocean thing but to live in the path of hurricanes so you can have ocean nearby doesnt sound logical

And to live where grunnings does is even crazier!

Plus the brutal humidity
Wasn't looking good for us a few days ago  
BigBlue in Keys : 9/25/2022 9:30 pm : link
Did a good yard clean up and tied some loose things up just incase. Glad we look to be ducking this one but nerve wracking having my parents up in New Port Richey 2 blocks from the Gulf. The surge projections of 10+' feet yesterday was a bad feeling.

Everyone loves tropical tidbits but I think he's wrong as often or more than anyone. He seems to run with the most shocking model to get clicks and it rarely works out. He had us getting the direct hit a few days back. Last year every minor storm he had coming over the Keys as well. Many times one of my captains shows me "what's coming" when no other site does and it always fizzles. He makes a good explanation, and maybe no one can really predict anything. My go to site is the RAL site Section 125 shared years ago. Follow the data and make your own determination. Be safe west coasters and good luck.
RE: Phoenix is in the 50s some days in the winter  
section125 : 9/25/2022 9:32 pm : link
In comment 15830381 Snablats said:
Quote:
I get the ocean thing but to live in the path of hurricanes so you can have ocean nearby doesnt sound logical

And to live where grunnings does is even crazier!

Plus the brutal humidity


The ocean keeps it cooler in summer and warmer in the winter. Yes it is humid and that sucks. But that is why there is A/C just like they do in AZ.

Hurricanes happen very infrequently.

There are more frequent fires, mudslides and floods in CA then Florida has bad weather. Midwest has loads of tornados. Every area has its' drawbacks. You have pick your poison.


Actually, the worst part is the ridiculous insurance rates.

One of these weather sites  
GruningsOnTheHill : 9/25/2022 9:42 pm : link
on YouTube (Mike's Weather, I think) is talking about a 12ft storm surge from Ft Myers up through Tampa in any of the plausible scenarios that are forecast.

This sucks.
I wouldn't live in Tornado Alley either  
Snablats : 9/25/2022 9:50 pm : link
There are hurricanes every year. The Southwest has nothing but heat, and Florida has the heat and humidity on top of it

I get the insurance issues. In LA I had to pay extra for earthquake coverage every year. Mudslides are less common than hurricanes and hurt far fewer people. Same for wildfires, you don't have them where 95% of the people live
RE: Wasn't looking good for us a few days ago  
section125 : 9/25/2022 9:55 pm : link
In comment 15830399 BigBlue in Keys said:
Quote:
Did a good yard clean up and tied some loose things up just incase. Glad we look to be ducking this one but nerve wracking having my parents up in New Port Richey 2 blocks from the Gulf. The surge projections of 10+' feet yesterday was a bad feeling.

Everyone loves tropical tidbits but I think he's wrong as often or more than anyone. He seems to run with the most shocking model to get clicks and it rarely works out. He had us getting the direct hit a few days back. Last year every minor storm he had coming over the Keys as well. Many times one of my captains shows me "what's coming" when no other site does and it always fizzles. He makes a good explanation, and maybe no one can really predict anything. My go to site is the RAL site Section 125 shared years ago. Follow the data and make your own determination. Be safe west coasters and good luck.


Yes RAL is great and I do check it every day twice. Every meteorologist makes some wrong calls and I doubt Levi overestimates his predictions for clicks. You do know NHC really only can count on "accuracy" out to 72 hrs. 120 hrs is like under 50%, IIRC. And I know you know about 30 miles is the difference in hurricane force winds and "only" 45/50 kts. And if you are 60 miles away on the West side you may only have gale force winds and significantly less rain.

NHC does their best and they do err on the side of caution. To each his own. I like Levi better than NHC, but it is like do you like Mint Chocolate Chip or Pistachio ice cream? But I do look at both and decide whether I get the shutters out or not. Looks like I will not need them on the East Coast.

RE: I wouldn't live in Tornado Alley either  
section125 : 9/25/2022 10:04 pm : link
In comment 15830419 Snablats said:
Quote:
There are hurricanes every year. The Southwest has nothing but heat, and Florida has the heat and humidity on top of it

I get the insurance issues. In LA I had to pay extra for earthquake coverage every year. Mudslides are less common than hurricanes and hurt far fewer people. Same for wildfires, you don't have them where 95% of the people live


I prefer Florida and he ocean. Been near the water my entire life. Grew up in NJ, so I am use to humidity. 90 and humid is 90 and humid. I just lasts longer in FL.
I also bitterly hate the cold. If I never saw below 50 again, it would be too soon.
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