I know, another Daniel Jones thread, but I’m curious about this. Assuming Jones is healthy and plays a full season, and let’s also say the Giants finish the year with 8-9 wins. If Jones executes Kafka’s game plan and utilizes his legs and makes a handful of throws, what will that command on the open market?
I’m not talking about airing it out and winning shootouts. If Jones plays efficiently with his legs and makes some important throws to help the team win. I’m thinking the following games where he managed the game very well:
vs Philly (2020)
vs Dallas (2020)
@NO (2021) - best game of his career
vs Carolina (2021)
vs LAV (2021)
vs Philly (2021)
I’m not including the first Tampa game, all of the games above were games where Jones played well and won since 2020. Especially the NO game where he threw for over 400 yards (that has been the outlier).
So, let’s say the Giants let Jones hit FA. How many teams do you think would try to sign him assuming he stays healthy this year?
For comparison, Mitch Trubisky got a base salary of $14.3M over two years from Pittsburgh. Is that the comp?
For me the Jones debate has always been largely about economics. I’m curious to what you think teams would offer him on the open market.
Lastly, I thought the game plan was absolutely brilliant yesterday and Jones executed it perfectly. This coming off a week against Dallas where he kept his eyes down the field and made things happen.
Can't see him getting more than that
18 million a year. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
If so Jones is looking at $20 million, if not maybe $12
If so Jones is looking at $20 million, if not maybe $12
I think that is the fascinating question. In a vacuum not thinking about cap ramifications, I can see the following teams being intrigued by Jones:
WFT
Carolina
Tampa Bay (Brady retires?)
Seattle
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
Either way, I trust Schoen and staff to make the right decision here. They’ve had a chance to work with the guy and see him up close. That’s what gets lost in all this tribalism around DJ. We are going to see where they stand soon enough. I believe he’s a guy you can contend with (put him on Eagles and you are seeing similar results - that much I’m confident in) but this team is still probably 2 years from competing for a SB if they get it the right way and the rookie contract and timeline matches up. The problem is the QB class looks unininspiring again with major question marks. Watched Levis three times now and unless he turns it around he’s a big project. The other top 2 guys are playing on tilted fields, one with probably the most brilliant offensive mind in football and the other is undersized and hurt.
Can't see him getting more than that
He will get a whole lot more than that.
The coaching staff is giving him backup/3rd string game plans. He consistently plays like a backup and puts up backup numbers, at best. It would be ludicrous to invest in him as a starter when he's had 4 years of opportunities and proven that he can't do it
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
The coaching staff is giving him backup/3rd string game plans. He consistently plays like a backup and puts up backup numbers, at best. It would be ludicrous to invest in him as a starter when he's had 4 years of opportunities and proven that he can't do it
Trubisky may have been the right comp years ago, but he isn't now. He's really bad despite having some actual talent to work with on that offense.
While I don't want to commit to Jones long term I do think he's pretty definitively better than Trubisky.
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Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
Disagree. If they were that much higher they would have given him the fifth year option. What you are seeing out of Daboll (and Kafka) is the ability to create an offense for the players we have and not the players we wish we had.
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Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
Yes. I agree and have said this before. This does not mean that they wind up keeping him but based on a lot of factors I see him very much in the picture. Lots more to prove. Being available is a good start.
If he keeps getting injured based upon how the gameplans/how he plays then that number needs to be adjusted down...
Easier said than done.
Fair to who?
You can replace what he gives you for 25-30% of that.
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Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
I think you have nothing besides your imagination to base that on.
I think that’s a good baseline. Bridgewater is a better pure passer but Jones is much more mobile. Both have injury concerns. Inflation adjusted the $6.5mm and make it $8mm.
Easier said than done.
But that's not the question.
Drafting a QB doesn't have to come with stipulation he is better on Day 1. Only that he is a better prospect as he plays/develops...
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Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
Or there is the good possibility that they value him much less than many on here believe. Care to provide any evidence either way?
Easier said than done.
This will likely be his bargaining chip. And its a fair question. I don't think there are going to be any upgrades in the UFA pool, but we might be able to get someone to tread water.
That said I don't think the Giants want to tread water. WE can clearly win some games as is despite all the problems with the roster. So when you try to get cheaper at QB I fully expect to be worse.
This becomes a moot point if we draft someone, however.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons
there are enough teams that might need a QB that he will get more then trubisky IF he can stay healthy the rest of the way. if he is not durable the rest of year there really is not much to discuss because if he cant use his legs he loses a main weapon.
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Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.
There is no way they are tagging him at $30M.
Signed QB yes, but not necessarily a QB better than Jones (see hitdog's list although I would take some names off of it)
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons
there are enough teams that might need a QB that he will get more then trubisky IF he can stay healthy the rest of the way. if he is not durable the rest of year there really is not much to discuss because if he cant use his legs he loses a main weapon.
You can add the Bucs (who won't have a high pick) and Seahawks as well.
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In comment 15843564 Ivan15 said:
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Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.
There is no way they are tagging him at $30M.
If the Giants decide they want Jones and have the general framework of a deal worked out they can certainly tag him to gain some additional leverage. They full well knew that was a possibility when they did not pick up his 5th year option. I am not advocating them doing that....Jones has alot more to prove in this system and he needs to avoid serious injury.
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Disagree. If they were that much higher they would have given him the fifth year option. What you are seeing out of Daboll (and Kafka) is the ability to create an offense for the players we have and not the players we wish we had.
I think you’re overstating the importance of that. I think they didn’t want to give him the fifth year until they had a chance to work with him. Now, I don’t know what they’ve decided if anything. But the fifth year option thing isn’t as important as many here believe.
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In comment 15843570 AnnapolisMike said:
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In comment 15843564 Ivan15 said:
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Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.
There is no way they are tagging him at $30M.
If the Giants decide they want Jones and have the general framework of a deal worked out they can certainly tag him to gain some additional leverage. They full well knew that was a possibility when they did not pick up his 5th year option. I am not advocating them doing that....Jones has alot more to prove in this system and he needs to avoid serious injury.
Then what to do with Saquon? I thing the tag for Saquon makes a lot more sense.
its not "projection" when you're entering your 5th year. you are what you are at that point
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons
Giants - TBD. Probably no.
Colts - depends on how the season goes with Ryan. So, a TBD.
Saints - TBD.
Dolphins - QB need depends on Tua's health. They have the parts to win now. That would be a LOT of pressure on Jones.
Lions - Goff is a better option. I don't see it.
Panthers - They have two version of Jones on their roster - Mayfield and Darnold. Do you really think they go back to the well to try that again?? NFW.
Houston - Don't see it. They will draft a QB and Mills is already a built-in bridge-QB.
Atlanta - They will also draft a QB and they have Mariotta on an affordable deal for two years.
I only see three teams at in the "maybe" status. And they feel like soft maybes to me.
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons
there are enough teams that might need a QB that he will get more then trubisky IF he can stay healthy the rest of the way. if he is not durable the rest of year there really is not much to discuss because if he cant use his legs he loses a main weapon.
i'll play!
SKINS - daniel jones = carson wentz
COLTS - they fully guaranteed the final 2 years of Ryans contract, 54 million
SAINTS - Jamies is slightly better than Jones, def not an upgrade
DOLPHINS - Tua will be back. plus they have Bridgewater (who is the exact same QB as Daniel Jones, mid tier)
LIONS - not sure you've been paying attention, but Goff is 3rd in the league in passing so far. he's having a great year so far
PANTHERS - they are a mess. going from Darnold to Mayfield to Jones would be pure comedy
HOUSTON - Is Jones better than Davis Mills? Mills makes 900K this year, 1.1 next year and 1.3 the year after. Does a 15 million/year Jones make them better?
FALCONS - Mariota = Jones, same player
I think that’s a good baseline. Bridgewater is a better pure passer but Jones is much more mobile. Both have injury concerns. Inflation adjusted the $6.5mm and make it $8mm.
Their situations are so different that's like comparing apples and oranges. Bridgewater is 29 and signed a one year deal with Miami as a clear back up deal. When he was younger he signed a three year 63 million deal with the Panthers. At his age, and if a team views Jones as a possible starter he will get far more than the one year deal Bridgewater took in Miami.
You can not like him and not want us to sign him longterm (I don't) but there are QB's that cost way way more than him playing way way worse. I hope you know that.
I don't see that being worth 15-20 million.
I'm guessing 10 +/- a couple.
Of course, the devil is in the details. It's all about the guaranteed dollars. The headline contract may look rich, but low guaranteed and first year make it poor.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye
Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
The difference is Jones is running because they don’t trust the offense to pass the ball downfield and second in the league in passing.
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eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
The difference is Jones is running because they don’t trust the offense to pass the ball downfield and second in the league in passing.
When a team is struggling mightily at OL, and having arguably the worst receiving unit in the league, you have no idea what the coaches do or don't trust about Jones's passing.
if jones gets replaced this year or injured then the Trubisky deal is reasonable - and that's probably the only scenario where he hits UFA without some kind of tag.
if he were to complete the year as starter as speculated in the OP playing at the level he is now, i think the teddy bridgewater contract a few years ago is probably the best recent comp for a "fair deal" (3 years, 63m) but that is more of a floor bc that deal is outdated and bridgewater was coming with baggage - so with the rapidly escalating salaries any QB would prefer a big 1 year before signing a mid level contract like that.
if he continues to improve over the course of the year i think he's going to put himself in line for a wentz/jimmy g/tannehill type of contract and someone will pay it.
so end of day there are 3 scenarios:
1. injured or replaced = trubisky deal
2. continues playing solid = tag (possible trade)
3. improves as year goes on = tag / jimmy g/ryan t/kirk/wentz 5x30m level extension (possible trade)
i could see him back with any of the 3 or gone with any of the 3 but think back is the higher probability.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
My apologies.
yes, its worked, barely. we shouldve lost to the Titans.
we've beaten two teams that are proving to be trash (panthers and bears). our 1st real challenge was dallas and we lost.
daniel jones has no value (as a quarterback)
His play this year will determine his worth, no matter what the BBI QB "experts" say. He has to stay healthy is the real issue, but 7 wins (my estimate) is 7 wins - with no WRs. You can credit Dabol with the wins, but Jones resume will have about 7 wins or more. The cost and risk of drafting the "can't miss" rookie QB is pretty high these days.
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saying they don't trust Jones on every thread doesn't make it true. Their gameplan has been working - moving chains, trying to control the clock, and limiting turnovers. That's kind of a smart strategy when you have no WR's and a patchwork OL that's still getting blown up in Pass Pro.
yes, its worked, barely. we shouldve lost to the Titans.
we've beaten two teams that are proving to be trash (panthers and bears). our 1st real challenge was dallas and we lost.
Don't really care much for "barely" - when teams "barely" beat us its ok apparently, but not when we win? Garbage. You take wins any way you can get them in this league and with our personnel if it means a run heavy gameplan, so be it.
I'm not advocating for keeping Jones either. Just pointing out he's better than some of the comps here and he's going to command more money than many here think as well. That's what the thread is about.
Daniel Jones will get $20M+ a year?
The Bucs are drooling over Daniel Jones?
Some of you people need to be kept away from the household cleaners under the sink.
Lets Get Specific....
List the starting QBs in the league that you think Daniel Jones is better than
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Joe Burrow
Tua
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Zach Wilson
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Mac Jones
As someone whose been very critical of Jones, anyone saying he has been the worst of this bunch is just being unfair.
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I'm not advocating for keeping Jones either. Just pointing out he's better than some of the comps here and he's going to command more money than many here think as well. That's what the thread is about.
Lets Get Specific....
List the starting QBs in the league that you think Daniel Jones is better than
No thanks, I really don't want to beat the horse any more than it has.
Structured in a way that makes it very cheap to walk away from in 2 years.
Something like $10M signing bonus, and salaries of 10 / 15 / 18 / 22 / 25. First two years fully guaranteed. Cuttable after 2 years with just $6M of bonus left to hit the cap.
They also can still look for a higher end QB in the draft if the above scenario does not work and strike down the road.
Like you I would not be able to give a monetary value on a QB with a high degree of accuracy but I like your thinking.
I have seen this over and over.
While neither a DJ supporter or hater, I like to keep an open mind and my options open.
I have no problem admitting if I am wrong or if I am not providing proper data for my argument.
My interest in the rushing by Josh and Daniel are based on is this a system for a specific QB or can anybody run it.
I wanted to see what Taylor would do in a game environment.
It's just odd to me that the rushing yards are almost the same.
Remember this is all out of your control. Its not your job on the line.
It's ok to state flaws and have doubts but also acknowledge potential root causes to the situation.
To say someone sucks without taking in all the circumstances is just lazy.
If DJ had weapons and this Oline this year with a healthy SB and still was not producing then yes, your opinion is valid.
To do what he is doing without talent like last year and when he went down they could not even move the ball speaks volumes.
It raises my eyebrows.
In the end it is BD and JS decision, so no need for me to bash or defend DJ. I have no control over it.
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Joe Burrow
Tua
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Zach Wilson
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Mac Jones
As someone whose been very critical of Jones, anyone saying he has been the worst of this bunch is just being unfair.
There are a lot of TBD QBs in that list. And I agree, Jones is not the worst.
There is better way to look at that list, IMV, are the QBs we could have drafted based on our draft position.
And right now, there are three on a HoF arc: Allen, Jackson and Herbert.
That really stings.
Daniel Jones will get $20M+ a year?
The Bucs are drooling over Daniel Jones?
Some of you people need to be kept away from the household cleaners under the sink.
It's truly head scratching. I am also reading now that a win now team that's a qb away will sign Jones? A win now team that's a qb away and signs Jones is still a qb away.
The Giants have won largely based on great scheming for a competent staff thats put Jones in a position to succeed predicated on his limited skill set. The Defense has been great as well.
If you want to get excited about the Giants- and you should - get excited that, for the first time in a decade, they have competent people at the helm. If you want to look at a Jones free agent contract, look at Trubisky for a gap qb/backup role level.
Winston was pretty widely known to be reckless and uncoachable. His first FA deal reflected that. He's also back to throwing picks again and is always hurt on top of it. I don't think he's a good comparison at all.
Lasers? Really?
See the video below and let me show you what a laser looks like.
Lasers - ( New Window )
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On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage.
See the video below and let me show you what a laser looks like. Lasers - ( New Window )
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Winston got a 1 year basically minimum deal to be a backup, then a 1 year, $12 million deal in 2022. Winston showed way more flashes his first two years in the league than Jones has. Jones in all likely hood signs a 1 year deal for $10-12 million. There’s not going to be a multi year deal for him out there.
Winston was pretty widely known to be reckless and uncoachable. His first FA deal reflected that. He's also back to throwing picks again and is always hurt on top of it. I don't think he's a good comparison at all.
That’s why he got a 1 year, $1 million deal. The second deal is what Quarterbacks like Winston and Jones get
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In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:
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On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage.
See the video below and let me show you what a laser looks like. Lasers - ( New Window )
Oh, I get it. The definition of a great quarterback is one who has an eternity to throw and can hit wide open receivers downfield. If only we had drafted Herbert, the Giants would look like that.
No one forced you to pull your own pants down with your original "lasers" comment.
Jameis Winston got significantly more than Trubisky, but his overall body of work is stronger than Trubisky or Jones, and he had already demonstrated in 2021 that he could function well in the Saints' offense. Like Jones, Winston has a concerning injury history. Even Winston's deal - at $14MM AAV - was well below the numbers some posters assume would be necessary to retain Jones.
I don't expect Jones to be the Giants' QB in 2023, but I don't think money will be the main obstacle. The team can probably afford his market price.
At least have the decency to watch the video if you are going to comment. Because a lot of those plays are not to "wide open receivers downfield". They are plays where Herbert is doing what you mistakenly think Jones is doing - throwing lasers to players in tight coverage.
Look, if you can't see, you just can't see.
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Daniel Jones and Josh Allen are statistically similar?
Daniel Jones will get $20M+ a year?
The Bucs are drooling over Daniel Jones?
Some of you people need to be kept away from the household cleaners under the sink.
It's truly head scratching. I am also reading now that a win now team that's a qb away will sign Jones? A win now team that's a qb away and signs Jones is still a qb away.
The Giants have won largely based on great scheming for a competent staff thats put Jones in a position to succeed predicated on his limited skill set. The Defense has been great as well.
If you want to get excited about the Giants- and you should - get excited that, for the first time in a decade, they have competent people at the helm. If you want to look at a Jones free agent contract, look at Trubisky for a gap qb/backup role level.
100%
I'm with you and I'm excited about Daboll.
Is Dak worth $35M when Cooper Rush shows no drop off?
I’m not so sure Rush isn’t on the same tier as Jones and he makes nothing.
1) Team Jones gets a vote in any agreement unless it's the 31.5M franchise tag.
2) There is a small band of tweener starters in the NFL, all on 1 or 2 year agreements making between 1M - 14M. All other veteran starters next year will make 29M+ AAV.
3) Given the scenario Sean described, Jones will not be coming off the type of season the above players inked their deals. Players like Mariota, Trubisky, Winston, Geno Smith etc. were either backups or injured and signed deals from a position of weakness.
4) Sean is basically describing a year like Wentz had last year at Indy. 9-8, 3500 Yards, 28 total TDs. The Commanders traded up to 2 third round picks for the right to pay Wentz 28.3M in 2022 (and the option to pay him an average of 26.5M in 2023 and 2024).
5) If Jones is coming off a pretty good year, he's closer to the 1 year value of Wentz, not the 2 year value of the former group.
Jones is a bottom tier passer. The entire Giants game plan is to scheme around his limitations as a passer.
Jameis Winston got significantly more than Trubisky, but his overall body of work is stronger than Trubisky or Jones, and he had already demonstrated in 2021 that he could function well in the Saints' offense. Like Jones, Winston has a concerning injury history. Even Winston's deal - at $14MM AAV - was well below the numbers some posters assume would be necessary to retain Jones.
I don't expect Jones to be the Giants' QB in 2023, but I don't think money will be the main obstacle. The team can probably afford his market price.
I think Jones is looking more and more like Mariota 2.0. They have terrific vertical running ability, but their passing skills don't match up.
And that contract Mariota signed - 2yrs/$18.75M - may also be a reasonable comp.
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On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage. You can be sure that every other GM has seen that too. The question going forward with Jones is his health. If he can stay healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucs went after him after Brady packs it in, as well as other teams needing a QB without a high pick.
Jones is a bottom tier passer. The entire Giants game plan is to scheme around his limitations as a passer.
I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.
What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.
What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.
except Jones can't "make all the throws". There are throws that Herbert, Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, and Mahomes routinely make, that Jones can't make. So this truism that Jones can make all the throws is just a platitude and not based in reality. He might make "enough throws". But that's a different linguistic construction and a different reality.
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eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR.
Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
I get it you have made it real clear you want Jones gone. Allen should have better stats since his supporting cast is so much better.
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In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:
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eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR.
Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
I get it you have made it real clear you want Jones gone. Allen should have better stats since his supporting cast is so much better.
And because he's more talented than Jones. Is that actually in dispute?
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
It is and not really something with a science behind it. Take away a couple key pieces from a 30 mill QB and he might just look like a 15m.
Seems to me a lot of variables in play. At least with a LT or some of the other players it is much more clear-cut.
The processing and decision making is most important and what BD is figuring out. He already said he values QB's who can make the right decisions under pressure.
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Jones might enter free agency in a stronger position than MM. On the other hand, there's not-insignificant chance that he's coming off either a benching or another injury.
I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.
What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.
except Jones can't "make all the throws". There are throws that Herbert, Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, and Mahomes routinely make, that Jones can't make. So this truism that Jones can make all the throws is just a platitude and not based in reality. He might make "enough throws". But that's a different linguistic construction and a different reality.
What "throws" has Jones not made?
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.
If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
Yep - there's no middle class in the QB economy.
I think there's only been one quarterback in recent years to hit free agency and command a big money deal: Kirk Cousins. For mid-level QBs teams tend to either convince themselves and sign them to big money, or cut bait, with no one else lining up to pay. Still crazy to me that teams gave up legitimate assets for Wentz, and his contract, TWICE.
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In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:
Quote:
eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR.
Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
I get it you have made it real clear you want Jones gone. Allen should have better stats since his supporting cast is so much better.
What sort of stats do you think Jones puts up if you put him on the Bills?
Quote:
eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
This! Is he a good/tough kid? Yes. Does his OLine stink? Yes. Do his WRs stink? Yes Does he make his WRs better? No.
When DJ is cut this offseason, I don't think there is one team that will sign him as a starter. If they do...I think it will look like Trubisky this year. The kid is not good enough, as a passer, to be an NFL starter. Paying DJ anything more than $3-5 million a year is a huge mistake and you can't waste another year on "toughness."
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Good post.
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.
If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.
I like that last paragraph. Not about the QB position, but in general it looks like with OL a line with 5 starters of NFL starting caliber is better than 1 All Pro + 1 or more OL not giving NFL starting caliber performances. Good DC's will exploit your weakest link.
How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?
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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.
How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?
By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."
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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.
How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?
I am able to understand Jones' quality because I watch many games of football per week and watch other QB's abilities. The fact that you needed to ask this question is telling.
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In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:
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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.
How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?
By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."
that's funny...
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In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:
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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.
How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?
By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."
The play of the Giants offensive line is relevant. The play of the Bucs offensive line is irrelevant.
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In comment 15844612 Ron Johnson said:
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In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:
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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.
How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?
By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."
The play of the Giants offensive line is relevant. The play of the Bucs offensive line is irrelevant.
You're 100% wrong.
If you're going to make comparisons, relative context is necessary. And if you're going to understand how any player contributes to a winning program, you need to be aware of the status of the rest of the league.
This isn't complicated. But it also doesn't come as a surprise that you don't get it.
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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.
How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?
This can't be a serious line of thinking.
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Good post.
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.
If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.
That’s an interesting way to put it.
The Cousins and Tannehill contracts may be a help here. These guys are overpaid but if they were earning, let’s say, $20-25mm annually, that’s more sensible. After our Cowboys loss, I was wondering if Dak Prescott might fall in the same camp.
In these three cases, there were very public writhings about whether the QB in question was worth it. But someone ended up paying the big money, no matter the concerns.
Then there are the cases with teams that genuinely tried to make a go with flawed but decent QBs. I’m thinking the 49ers and Chiefs with Alex Smith, the Rams with Goff (who was not paid top QB money by the Rams) and the 49ers with Garoppollo (again not paid top tier money). And all of those teams couldn’t make it work and have moved on or are moving on.
So some teams overpay - because they must - and other teams decide not to overpay - and change their minds (0 titles for the teams in that group though they were all excellent squads).
So Jerry, brilliant post. Totally see your point of view and the great minds in the NFL agree. And one more reason to just let Jones walk.
You either have a great QB and he’s worth paying. Or you don’t and your chances of winning a title are slim.
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In comment 15844474 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Good post.
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.
If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.
That’s an interesting way to put it.
The Cousins and Tannehill contracts may be a help here. These guys are overpaid but if they were earning, let’s say, $20-25mm annually, that’s more sensible. After our Cowboys loss, I was wondering if Dak Prescott might fall in the same camp.
In these three cases, there were very public writhings about whether the QB in question was worth it. But someone ended up paying the big money, no matter the concerns.
Then there are the cases with teams that genuinely tried to make a go with flawed but decent QBs. I’m thinking the 49ers and Chiefs with Alex Smith, the Rams with Goff (who was not paid top QB money by the Rams) and the 49ers with Garoppollo (again not paid top tier money). And all of those teams couldn’t make it work and have moved on or are moving on.
So some teams overpay - because they must - and other teams decide not to overpay - and change their minds (0 titles for the teams in that group though they were all excellent squads).
So Jerry, brilliant post. Totally see your point of view and the great minds in the NFL agree. And one more reason to just let Jones walk.
You either have a great QB and he’s worth paying. Or you don’t and your chances of winning a title are slim.
This amazes me! Are you really trying to compare Jones to Kirk Cousins? Please post their career stats and even try to justify that comparison? Even Tanihill has one season Jones could only dream about! Trubisky and Mariota are the only starting QBs that compare.
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In comment 15844424 Big Blue Blogger said:
Quote:
Jones might enter free agency in a stronger position than MM. On the other hand, there's not-insignificant chance that he's coming off either a benching or another injury.
I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.
What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.
except Jones can't "make all the throws". There are throws that Herbert, Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, and Mahomes routinely make, that Jones can't make. So this truism that Jones can make all the throws is just a platitude and not based in reality. He might make "enough throws". But that's a different linguistic construction and a different reality.
What "throws" has Jones not made?
Do you watch elite QBs in this league? What do you think makes them elite? Their telegenic smile?
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In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:
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On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage. You can be sure that every other GM has seen that too. The question going forward with Jones is his health. If he can stay healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucs went after him after Brady packs it in, as well as other teams needing a QB without a high pick.
Jones is a bottom tier passer. The entire Giants game plan is to scheme around his limitations as a passer.
And you're a bottom tier poster, as many others have pointed out. There's no use arguing with you.
Ad hominem attacks, huh? Means you haven't a leg to stand on. An unserious poster.
Can’t you be reasonable? Why isn’t it ok to think Jones isn’t a huge difference maker while also recognizing that he’s playing in a bottom 5, likely bottom 3 offensive unit in the league?
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In comment 15844625 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15844612 Ron Johnson said:
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In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:
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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.
How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?
By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."
The play of the Giants offensive line is relevant. The play of the Bucs offensive line is irrelevant.
You're 100% wrong.
If you're going to make comparisons, relative context is necessary. And if you're going to understand how any player contributes to a winning program, you need to be aware of the status of the rest of the league.
This isn't complicated. But it also doesn't come as a surprise that you don't get it.
Wow, going ‘snot-nosed’ pretty quick huh?
Whatever. do your evaluations tonight. Let us know how Jones grades out