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How much money would Daniel Jones command in free agency?

Sean : 10/3/2022 8:40 am
I know, another Daniel Jones thread, but I’m curious about this. Assuming Jones is healthy and plays a full season, and let’s also say the Giants finish the year with 8-9 wins. If Jones executes Kafka’s game plan and utilizes his legs and makes a handful of throws, what will that command on the open market?

I’m not talking about airing it out and winning shootouts. If Jones plays efficiently with his legs and makes some important throws to help the team win. I’m thinking the following games where he managed the game very well:

vs Philly (2020)
vs Dallas (2020)
@NO (2021) - best game of his career
vs Carolina (2021)
vs LAV (2021)
vs Philly (2021)

I’m not including the first Tampa game, all of the games above were games where Jones played well and won since 2020. Especially the NO game where he threw for over 400 yards (that has been the outlier).

So, let’s say the Giants let Jones hit FA. How many teams do you think would try to sign him assuming he stays healthy this year?

For comparison, Mitch Trubisky got a base salary of $14.3M over two years from Pittsburgh. Is that the comp?

For me the Jones debate has always been largely about economics. I’m curious to what you think teams would offer him on the open market.

Lastly, I thought the game plan was absolutely brilliant yesterday and Jones executed it perfectly. This coming off a week against Dallas where he kept his eyes down the field and made things happen.
I think he's better  
Now Mike in MD : 10/3/2022 8:42 am : link
than Trubisky. But using MT's contract as a starting point, I'd say he'd probably sign for 17-18 million per year
....  
riceneggs : 10/3/2022 8:43 am : link
Tyrod Taylor got 2 years/11 million as a backup

Can't see him getting more than that
RE: I think he's better  
riceneggs : 10/3/2022 8:44 am : link
In comment 15843472 Now Mike in MD said:
Quote:
than Trubisky. But using MT's contract as a starting point, I'd say he'd probably sign for 17-18 million per year


18 million a year. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
20 mil per.....is probably fair.  
George from PA : 10/3/2022 8:45 am : link
.
it all depends  
Giantsfan79 : 10/3/2022 8:45 am : link
does some GM look at the tape and think if we can protect that guy then he can win?

If so Jones is looking at $20 million, if not maybe $12
RE: it all depends  
Sean : 10/3/2022 8:52 am : link
In comment 15843479 Giantsfan79 said:
Quote:
does some GM look at the tape and think if we can protect that guy then he can win?

If so Jones is looking at $20 million, if not maybe $12

I think that is the fascinating question. In a vacuum not thinking about cap ramifications, I can see the following teams being intrigued by Jones:

WFT
Carolina
Tampa Bay (Brady retires?)
Seattle
Mitch Trubisky money  
Mike in NY : 10/3/2022 8:54 am : link
When healthy I think he has the potential to be a better QB than Mitch, but the durability factor means you need a 1A who can start and not lose games you should have won (a la Case Keenum)
DJ is mid tier (I like him)  
MotownGIANTS : 10/3/2022 9:02 am : link
15 mill per is the max + playing time incentives which he'll make with better WRs less running for him if guys actually got open AND CAUGH THE DAMN BALL!
DJ is mid tier (I like him)  
MotownGIANTS : 10/3/2022 9:02 am : link
15 mill per is the max + playing time incentives which he'll make with better WRs less running for him if guys actually got open AND CAUGHT THE DAMN BALL!
Seam I think its a TBD still  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/3/2022 9:02 am : link
Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.

I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
There is no doubt in my mind that a team that is a QB away will offer  
Returning Video Tapes : 10/3/2022 9:06 am : link
him at least 20-25 million. Why wouldn’t you give him a chance? Are we forgetting it’s all projection? Lot easier to project that DJ will be a top 12 statistical QB with actual talent around him that can beat you from the pocket (important if you want to make noise in playoffs and contend) than it is anyone from college outside the Andrew Lucks of the world.

Either way, I trust Schoen and staff to make the right decision here. They’ve had a chance to work with the guy and see him up close. That’s what gets lost in all this tribalism around DJ. We are going to see where they stand soon enough. I believe he’s a guy you can contend with (put him on Eagles and you are seeing similar results - that much I’m confident in) but this team is still probably 2 years from competing for a SB if they get it the right way and the rookie contract and timeline matches up. The problem is the QB class looks unininspiring again with major question marks. Watched Levis three times now and unless he turns it around he’s a big project. The other top 2 guys are playing on tilted fields, one with probably the most brilliant offensive mind in football and the other is undersized and hurt.
RE: ....  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 9:08 am : link
In comment 15843474 riceneggs said:
Quote:
Tyrod Taylor got 2 years/11 million as a backup

Can't see him getting more than that


He will get a whole lot more than that.
Trubisky is the right comp  
Jerry in_DC : 10/3/2022 9:09 am : link
Totally solid backup. Someone you definitely don't want starting.

The coaching staff is giving him backup/3rd string game plans. He consistently plays like a backup and puts up backup numbers, at best. It would be ludicrous to invest in him as a starter when he's had 4 years of opportunities and proven that he can't do it
About $8mm per?  
cosmicj : 10/3/2022 9:11 am : link
.
RE: Seam I think its a TBD still  
joeinpa : 10/3/2022 9:13 am : link
In comment 15843515 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.

I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.


I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
RE: Trubisky is the right comp  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 9:14 am : link
In comment 15843528 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
Totally solid backup. Someone you definitely don't want starting.

The coaching staff is giving him backup/3rd string game plans. He consistently plays like a backup and puts up backup numbers, at best. It would be ludicrous to invest in him as a starter when he's had 4 years of opportunities and proven that he can't do it


Trubisky may have been the right comp years ago, but he isn't now. He's really bad despite having some actual talent to work with on that offense.

While I don't want to commit to Jones long term I do think he's pretty definitively better than Trubisky.
RE: RE: Seam I think its a TBD still  
Mike in NY : 10/3/2022 9:16 am : link
In comment 15843535 joeinpa said:
Quote:
In comment 15843515 Lines of Scrimmage said:


Quote:


Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.

I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.



I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe


Disagree. If they were that much higher they would have given him the fifth year option. What you are seeing out of Daboll (and Kafka) is the ability to create an offense for the players we have and not the players we wish we had.
RE: RE: Seam I think its a TBD still  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/3/2022 9:17 am : link
In comment 15843535 joeinpa said:
Quote:
In comment 15843515 Lines of Scrimmage said:


Quote:


Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.

I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.



I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe



Yes. I agree and have said this before. This does not mean that they wind up keeping him but based on a lot of factors I see him very much in the picture. Lots more to prove. Being available is a good start.
If he is still alive after this season, then approx $18M/year  
Jimmy Googs : 10/3/2022 9:18 am : link
seems like a decent strike price from some team.

If he keeps getting injured based upon how the gameplans/how he plays then that number needs to be adjusted down...
Question is if you don't sign Jones  
kelly : 10/3/2022 9:18 am : link
Who can you get that will clearly be better on day one?

Easier said than done.
RE: 20 mil per.....is probably fair.  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/3/2022 9:18 am : link
In comment 15843477 George from PA said:
Quote:
.

Fair to who?

You can replace what he gives you for 25-30% of that.
RE: RE: Seam I think its a TBD still  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/3/2022 9:20 am : link
In comment 15843535 joeinpa said:
Quote:
In comment 15843515 Lines of Scrimmage said:


Quote:


Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.

I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.



I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe

I think you have nothing besides your imagination to base that on.
Teddy Bridgewater is making $6.5mm this year.  
cosmicj : 10/3/2022 9:21 am : link
(And he’s going to be earning it!)

I think that’s a good baseline. Bridgewater is a better pure passer but Jones is much more mobile. Both have injury concerns. Inflation adjusted the $6.5mm and make it $8mm.
RE: Question is if you don't sign Jones  
Jimmy Googs : 10/3/2022 9:21 am : link
In comment 15843548 kelly said:
Quote:
Who can you get that will clearly be better on day one?

Easier said than done.


But that's not the question.

Drafting a QB doesn't have to come with stipulation he is better on Day 1. Only that he is a better prospect as he plays/develops...
RE: RE: Seam I think its a TBD still  
cosmicj : 10/3/2022 9:22 am : link
In comment 15843535 joeinpa said:
Quote:
In comment 15843515 Lines of Scrimmage said:


Quote:


Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.

I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.



I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe


Or there is the good possibility that they value him much less than many on here believe. Care to provide any evidence either way?
RE: Question is if you don't sign Jones  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 9:22 am : link
In comment 15843548 kelly said:
Quote:
Who can you get that will clearly be better on day one?

Easier said than done.


This will likely be his bargaining chip. And its a fair question. I don't think there are going to be any upgrades in the UFA pool, but we might be able to get someone to tread water.

That said I don't think the Giants want to tread water. WE can clearly win some games as is despite all the problems with the roster. So when you try to get cheaper at QB I fully expect to be worse.

This becomes a moot point if we draft someone, however.
Sean: The Giants don’t have to “let” Jones hit free agency.  
Ivan15 : 10/3/2022 9:22 am : link
Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.

The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.

Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
RE: Sean: The Giants don’t have to “let” Jones hit free agency.  
AnnapolisMike : 10/3/2022 9:25 am : link
In comment 15843564 Ivan15 said:
Quote:
Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.

The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.

Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.


The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.
what teams need a qb  
hitdog42 : 10/3/2022 9:25 am : link
- skins
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons

there are enough teams that might need a QB that he will get more then trubisky IF he can stay healthy the rest of the way. if he is not durable the rest of year there really is not much to discuss because if he cant use his legs he loses a main weapon.
Jameis Winston  
Metnut : 10/3/2022 9:26 am : link
is a better comparison than Mitch. You’re looking at 2yrs/$32M on the low end and 3yrs/$50M on the high end.
RE: RE: Sean: The Giants don’t have to “let” Jones hit free agency.  
Sean : 10/3/2022 9:27 am : link
In comment 15843570 AnnapolisMike said:
Quote:
In comment 15843564 Ivan15 said:


Quote:


Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.

The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.

Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.



The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.

There is no way they are tagging him at $30M.
Will there be a market?  
bw in dc : 10/3/2022 9:28 am : link
Seems very narrow to me because nearly every team has a signed QB.
RE: Will there be a market?  
Mike in NY : 10/3/2022 9:31 am : link
In comment 15843584 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Seems very narrow to me because nearly every team has a signed QB.


Signed QB yes, but not necessarily a QB better than Jones (see hitdog's list although I would take some names off of it)
RE: what teams need a qb  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 9:31 am : link
In comment 15843571 hitdog42 said:
Quote:
- skins
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons

there are enough teams that might need a QB that he will get more then trubisky IF he can stay healthy the rest of the way. if he is not durable the rest of year there really is not much to discuss because if he cant use his legs he loses a main weapon.


You can add the Bucs (who won't have a high pick) and Seahawks as well.
RE: RE: RE: Sean: The Giants don’t have to “let” Jones hit free agency.  
AnnapolisMike : 10/3/2022 9:38 am : link
In comment 15843577 Sean said:
Quote:
In comment 15843570 AnnapolisMike said:


Quote:


In comment 15843564 Ivan15 said:


Quote:


Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.

The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.

Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.



The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.


There is no way they are tagging him at $30M.


If the Giants decide they want Jones and have the general framework of a deal worked out they can certainly tag him to gain some additional leverage. They full well knew that was a possibility when they did not pick up his 5th year option. I am not advocating them doing that....Jones has alot more to prove in this system and he needs to avoid serious injury.
RE: RE: RE: Seam I think its a TBD still  
BillT : 10/3/2022 9:39 am : link
In comment 15843543 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 15843535 joeinpa said:



Quote:




Disagree. If they were that much higher they would have given him the fifth year option. What you are seeing out of Daboll (and Kafka) is the ability to create an offense for the players we have and not the players we wish we had.

I think you’re overstating the importance of that. I think they didn’t want to give him the fifth year until they had a chance to work with him. Now, I don’t know what they’ve decided if anything. But the fifth year option thing isn’t as important as many here believe.
BillT  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/3/2022 9:45 am : link
Agree.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Sean: The Giants don’t have to “let” Jones hit free agency.  
Sean : 10/3/2022 9:49 am : link
In comment 15843610 AnnapolisMike said:
Quote:
In comment 15843577 Sean said:


Quote:


In comment 15843570 AnnapolisMike said:


Quote:


In comment 15843564 Ivan15 said:


Quote:


Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.

The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.

Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.



The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.


There is no way they are tagging him at $30M.



If the Giants decide they want Jones and have the general framework of a deal worked out they can certainly tag him to gain some additional leverage. They full well knew that was a possibility when they did not pick up his 5th year option. I am not advocating them doing that....Jones has alot more to prove in this system and he needs to avoid serious injury.

Then what to do with Saquon? I thing the tag for Saquon makes a lot more sense.
RE: There is no doubt in my mind that a team that is a QB away will offer  
riceneggs : 10/3/2022 9:52 am : link
In comment 15843522 Returning Video Tapes said:
Quote:
him at least 20-25 million. Why wouldn’t you give him a chance? Are we forgetting it’s all projection? Lot easier to project that DJ will be a top 12 statistical QB with actual talent around him that can beat you from the pocket (important if you want to make noise in playoffs and contend) than it is anyone from college outside the Andrew Lucks of the world.



its not "projection" when you're entering your 5th year. you are what you are at that point
RE: what teams need a qb  
bw in dc : 10/3/2022 9:59 am : link
In comment 15843571 hitdog42 said:
Quote:
- skins
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons



Giants - TBD. Probably no.
Colts - depends on how the season goes with Ryan. So, a TBD.
Saints - TBD.
Dolphins - QB need depends on Tua's health. They have the parts to win now. That would be a LOT of pressure on Jones.
Lions - Goff is a better option. I don't see it.
Panthers - They have two version of Jones on their roster - Mayfield and Darnold. Do you really think they go back to the well to try that again?? NFW.
Houston - Don't see it. They will draft a QB and Mills is already a built-in bridge-QB.
Atlanta - They will also draft a QB and they have Mariotta on an affordable deal for two years.

I only see three teams at in the "maybe" status. And they feel like soft maybes to me.
RE: what teams need a qb  
riceneggs : 10/3/2022 10:02 am : link
In comment 15843571 hitdog42 said:
Quote:
- skins
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons

there are enough teams that might need a QB that he will get more then trubisky IF he can stay healthy the rest of the way. if he is not durable the rest of year there really is not much to discuss because if he cant use his legs he loses a main weapon.


i'll play!

SKINS - daniel jones = carson wentz

COLTS - they fully guaranteed the final 2 years of Ryans contract, 54 million

SAINTS - Jamies is slightly better than Jones, def not an upgrade

DOLPHINS - Tua will be back. plus they have Bridgewater (who is the exact same QB as Daniel Jones, mid tier)

LIONS - not sure you've been paying attention, but Goff is 3rd in the league in passing so far. he's having a great year so far

PANTHERS - they are a mess. going from Darnold to Mayfield to Jones would be pure comedy

HOUSTON - Is Jones better than Davis Mills? Mills makes 900K this year, 1.1 next year and 1.3 the year after. Does a 15 million/year Jones make them better?

FALCONS - Mariota = Jones, same player
RE: Teddy Bridgewater is making $6.5mm this year.  
steve in ky : 10/3/2022 10:12 am : link
In comment 15843558 cosmicj said:
Quote:
(And he’s going to be earning it!)

I think that’s a good baseline. Bridgewater is a better pure passer but Jones is much more mobile. Both have injury concerns. Inflation adjusted the $6.5mm and make it $8mm.


Their situations are so different that's like comparing apples and oranges. Bridgewater is 29 and signed a one year deal with Miami as a clear back up deal. When he was younger he signed a three year 63 million deal with the Panthers. At his age, and if a team views Jones as a possible starter he will get far more than the one year deal Bridgewater took in Miami.
its funny how everyone acts like half the league isn't starved  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 10:17 am : link
for better QB play. We've got teams trading picks for aging washed up vest, and it isn't working out at all, but somehow Jones is only worth $8m as a FA, lol.

You can not like him and not want us to sign him longterm (I don't) but there are QB's that cost way way more than him playing way way worse. I hope you know that.
right now  
fkap : 10/3/2022 10:21 am : link
he's a bridge QB with an outside chance of being a middle of the pack QB.

I don't see that being worth 15-20 million.

I'm guessing 10 +/- a couple.

Of course, the devil is in the details. It's all about the guaranteed dollars. The headline contract may look rich, but low guaranteed and first year make it poor.
Look at rows 29 and 30  
Tom from LI : 10/3/2022 10:25 am : link
eerily similar.

even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..

The rushing really caught my eye
Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
RE: Look at rows 29 and 30  
ajr2456 : 10/3/2022 10:37 am : link
In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:
Quote:
eerily similar.

even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..

The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )


The difference is Jones is running because they don’t trust the offense to pass the ball downfield and second in the league in passing.
RE: RE: Look at rows 29 and 30  
steve in ky : 10/3/2022 10:43 am : link
In comment 15843744 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:


Quote:


eerily similar.

even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..

The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )



The difference is Jones is running because they don’t trust the offense to pass the ball downfield and second in the league in passing.


When a team is struggling mightily at OL, and having arguably the worst receiving unit in the league, you have no idea what the coaches do or don't trust about Jones's passing.
Trubisky isn't a relevant comp or starting point (yet)  
Eric on Li : 10/3/2022 10:44 am : link
he had been a 2nd time FA and the first time he got almost the minimum in Buffalo. I believe that was likely impacted by coming off the shoulder injury. Either way this past year his market increased because he was the best of what was available but was still sought primarily for backup roles.

if jones gets replaced this year or injured then the Trubisky deal is reasonable - and that's probably the only scenario where he hits UFA without some kind of tag.

if he were to complete the year as starter as speculated in the OP playing at the level he is now, i think the teddy bridgewater contract a few years ago is probably the best recent comp for a "fair deal" (3 years, 63m) but that is more of a floor bc that deal is outdated and bridgewater was coming with baggage - so with the rapidly escalating salaries any QB would prefer a big 1 year before signing a mid level contract like that.

if he continues to improve over the course of the year i think he's going to put himself in line for a wentz/jimmy g/tannehill type of contract and someone will pay it.

so end of day there are 3 scenarios:

1. injured or replaced = trubisky deal
2. continues playing solid = tag (possible trade)
3. improves as year goes on = tag / jimmy g/ryan t/kirk/wentz 5x30m level extension (possible trade)

i could see him back with any of the 3 or gone with any of the 3 but think back is the higher probability.
RE: Look at rows 29 and 30  
Jerry in_DC : 10/3/2022 10:49 am : link
In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:
Quote:
eerily similar.

even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..

The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )


How are their passing stats close?

Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631

Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3

Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A

The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
ajr  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 10:53 am : link
saying they don't trust Jones on every thread doesn't make it true. Their gameplan has been working - moving chains, trying to control the clock, and limiting turnovers. That's kind of a smart strategy when you have no WR's and a patchwork OL that's still getting blown up in Pass Pro.
I said the offense.  
ajr2456 : 10/3/2022 10:54 am : link
That doesn’t mean just Daniel Jones
DJ willl be a Buc next year if we don’t resign him. Colts are a team  
Returning Video Tapes : 10/3/2022 10:56 am : link
to look out for too, but they are just awful (part of that is how cooked Ryan is) so they look to be at top of draft.
RE: I said the offense.  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 10:56 am : link
In comment 15843766 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
That doesn’t mean just Daniel Jones


My apologies.
RE: ajr  
riceneggs : 10/3/2022 10:57 am : link
In comment 15843765 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
saying they don't trust Jones on every thread doesn't make it true. Their gameplan has been working - moving chains, trying to control the clock, and limiting turnovers. That's kind of a smart strategy when you have no WR's and a patchwork OL that's still getting blown up in Pass Pro.


yes, its worked, barely. we shouldve lost to the Titans.
we've beaten two teams that are proving to be trash (panthers and bears). our 1st real challenge was dallas and we lost.

Agree with Jerry here  
JonC : 10/3/2022 10:59 am : link
Jones is a backup caliber QB. I wouldn't be surprised if a team thought he was salvageable in a different system, and thus make him a better offer and try to undercut the timeframe of developing a draft pick. But, I'd estimate $10-12M and ~$15M per on the high end.
running QBs  
riceneggs : 10/3/2022 11:01 am : link
the NFL doesnt value running quarterbacks...running quarterbacks that have more rushing yards than pass yards each game

daniel jones has no value (as a quarterback)
If he signs anywhere as a starter - its 20M/yr - that's the going rate  
stoneman : 10/3/2022 11:09 am : link
Doesn't matter who you compare him with - he is young enough to command the 20M/yr base starter rate. The real question is how many years of commitment will he command on the open market. There are alot of QB hungry teams next year.

His play this year will determine his worth, no matter what the BBI QB "experts" say. He has to stay healthy is the real issue, but 7 wins (my estimate) is 7 wins - with no WRs. You can credit Dabol with the wins, but Jones resume will have about 7 wins or more. The cost and risk of drafting the "can't miss" rookie QB is pretty high these days.
RE: RE: ajr  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 11:14 am : link
In comment 15843774 riceneggs said:
Quote:
In comment 15843765 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


saying they don't trust Jones on every thread doesn't make it true. Their gameplan has been working - moving chains, trying to control the clock, and limiting turnovers. That's kind of a smart strategy when you have no WR's and a patchwork OL that's still getting blown up in Pass Pro.



yes, its worked, barely. we shouldve lost to the Titans.
we've beaten two teams that are proving to be trash (panthers and bears). our 1st real challenge was dallas and we lost.


Don't really care much for "barely" - when teams "barely" beat us its ok apparently, but not when we win? Garbage. You take wins any way you can get them in this league and with our personnel if it means a run heavy gameplan, so be it.

I'm not advocating for keeping Jones either. Just pointing out he's better than some of the comps here and he's going to command more money than many here think as well. That's what the thread is about.
there are a lot of weird takes on this thread  
Producer : 10/3/2022 11:31 am : link
Daniel Jones and Josh Allen are statistically similar?

Daniel Jones will get $20M+ a year?

The Bucs are drooling over Daniel Jones?

Some of you people need to be kept away from the household cleaners under the sink.
RE: RE: RE: ajr  
riceneggs : 10/3/2022 11:44 am : link
In comment 15843814 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
I'm not advocating for keeping Jones either. Just pointing out he's better than some of the comps here and he's going to command more money than many here think as well. That's what the thread is about.


Lets Get Specific....

List the starting QBs in the league that you think Daniel Jones is better than
These are the first round draft picks drafted since 2018  
Sean : 10/3/2022 11:51 am : link
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Joe Burrow
Tua
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Zach Wilson
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Mac Jones

As someone whose been very critical of Jones, anyone saying he has been the worst of this bunch is just being unfair.
RE: RE: RE: RE: ajr  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 11:56 am : link
In comment 15843889 riceneggs said:
Quote:
In comment 15843814 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


I'm not advocating for keeping Jones either. Just pointing out he's better than some of the comps here and he's going to command more money than many here think as well. That's what the thread is about.



Lets Get Specific....

List the starting QBs in the league that you think Daniel Jones is better than


No thanks, I really don't want to beat the horse any more than it has.
I'm bad at predicting what the market will bear  
bigbluehoya : 10/3/2022 11:59 am : link
bu for the NYG, presuming he continues to be approximately what hes been so far this season, I'd probably not be willing to go higher than something like $100M over 5 years, with $35M guaranteed.

Structured in a way that makes it very cheap to walk away from in 2 years.

Something like $10M signing bonus, and salaries of 10 / 15 / 18 / 22 / 25. First two years fully guaranteed. Cuttable after 2 years with just $6M of bonus left to hit the cap.
Hoya  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/3/2022 12:19 pm : link
You hit on a very realistic scenario. The Giants may not be a be able to get the QB they really like in the draft which is very real. They can draft someone in rounds 2-4 that see has having upside but has warts. That gives them time and if they see enough in Jones it gives them the best chance to win which is good the franchise and even bigger for BD.

They also can still look for a higher end QB in the draft if the above scenario does not work and strike down the road.

Like you I would not be able to give a monetary value on a QB with a high degree of accuracy but I like your thinking.
what's been pretty obvious in my life  
Tom from LI : 10/3/2022 12:23 pm : link
that when people keep talking shit about a subject to disprove it or throw shade on it usually means they are worried that it will not go the way they want it to go and they are probably incorrect.

I have seen this over and over.

While neither a DJ supporter or hater, I like to keep an open mind and my options open.

I have no problem admitting if I am wrong or if I am not providing proper data for my argument.

My interest in the rushing by Josh and Daniel are based on is this a system for a specific QB or can anybody run it.

I wanted to see what Taylor would do in a game environment.

It's just odd to me that the rushing yards are almost the same.

Remember this is all out of your control. Its not your job on the line.

It's ok to state flaws and have doubts but also acknowledge potential root causes to the situation.

To say someone sucks without taking in all the circumstances is just lazy.

If DJ had weapons and this Oline this year with a healthy SB and still was not producing then yes, your opinion is valid.

To do what he is doing without talent like last year and when he went down they could not even move the ball speaks volumes.

It raises my eyebrows.

In the end it is BD and JS decision, so no need for me to bash or defend DJ. I have no control over it.
RE: These are the first round draft picks drafted since 2018  
bw in dc : 10/3/2022 12:26 pm : link
In comment 15843910 Sean said:
Quote:
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Joe Burrow
Tua
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Zach Wilson
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Mac Jones

As someone whose been very critical of Jones, anyone saying he has been the worst of this bunch is just being unfair.


There are a lot of TBD QBs in that list. And I agree, Jones is not the worst.

There is better way to look at that list, IMV, are the QBs we could have drafted based on our draft position.

And right now, there are three on a HoF arc: Allen, Jackson and Herbert.

That really stings.
RE: there are a lot of weird takes on this thread  
lax counsel : 10/3/2022 12:27 pm : link
In comment 15843858 Producer said:
Quote:
Daniel Jones and Josh Allen are statistically similar?

Daniel Jones will get $20M+ a year?

The Bucs are drooling over Daniel Jones?

Some of you people need to be kept away from the household cleaners under the sink.


It's truly head scratching. I am also reading now that a win now team that's a qb away will sign Jones? A win now team that's a qb away and signs Jones is still a qb away.

The Giants have won largely based on great scheming for a competent staff thats put Jones in a position to succeed predicated on his limited skill set. The Defense has been great as well.

If you want to get excited about the Giants- and you should - get excited that, for the first time in a decade, they have competent people at the helm. If you want to look at a Jones free agent contract, look at Trubisky for a gap qb/backup role level.
bw, well said  
Sean : 10/3/2022 12:36 pm : link
On the flip side, you can ask if Daniel Jones is better than Cooper Rush. I’m not so sure he is.
5-10% of the cap  
jintz4life : 10/3/2022 12:47 pm : link
so ~10-20m
A lot of people are overestimating what Jones would command  
ajr2456 : 10/3/2022 1:24 pm : link
Winston got a 1 year basically minimum deal to be a backup, then a 1 year, $12 million deal in 2022. Winston showed way more flashes his first two years in the league than Jones has. Jones in all likely hood signs a 1 year deal for $10-12 million. There’s not going to be a multi year deal for him out there.
RE: A lot of people are overestimating what Jones would command  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 1:34 pm : link
In comment 15844167 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
Winston got a 1 year basically minimum deal to be a backup, then a 1 year, $12 million deal in 2022. Winston showed way more flashes his first two years in the league than Jones has. Jones in all likely hood signs a 1 year deal for $10-12 million. There’s not going to be a multi year deal for him out there.


Winston was pretty widely known to be reckless and uncoachable. His first FA deal reflected that. He's also back to throwing picks again and is always hurt on top of it. I don't think he's a good comparison at all.
In what universe is Jones not a good passer ?  
Ron from Ninerland : 10/3/2022 1:34 pm : link
On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage. You can be sure that every other GM has seen that too. The question going forward with Jones is his health. If he can stay healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucs went after him after Brady packs it in, as well as other teams needing a QB without a high pick.
where I do agree is that there may not be a longterm deal  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 1:35 pm : link
out there for Jones. He might have no choice but to accept a 1 year deal and hope he can perform well + some of the vets come off the books after 2023.
RE: In what universe is Jones not a good passer ?  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/3/2022 1:37 pm : link
In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage. You can be sure that every other GM has seen that too. The question going forward with Jones is his health. If he can stay healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucs went after him after Brady packs it in, as well as other teams needing a QB without a high pick.

Lasers? Really?
RE: In what universe is Jones not a good passer ?  
bw in dc : 10/3/2022 1:48 pm : link
In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage.


See the video below and let me show you what a laser looks like.
Lasers - ( New Window )
RE: RE: In what universe is Jones not a good passer ?  
Ron from Ninerland : 10/3/2022 1:55 pm : link
In comment 15844245 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:


Quote:


On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage.



See the video below and let me show you what a laser looks like. Lasers - ( New Window )
Oh, I get it. The definition of a great quarterback is one who has an eternity to throw and can hit wide open receivers downfield. If only we had drafted Herbert, the Giants would look like that.
RE: RE: A lot of people are overestimating what Jones would command  
ajr2456 : 10/3/2022 1:57 pm : link
In comment 15844190 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 15844167 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


Winston got a 1 year basically minimum deal to be a backup, then a 1 year, $12 million deal in 2022. Winston showed way more flashes his first two years in the league than Jones has. Jones in all likely hood signs a 1 year deal for $10-12 million. There’s not going to be a multi year deal for him out there.



Winston was pretty widely known to be reckless and uncoachable. His first FA deal reflected that. He's also back to throwing picks again and is always hurt on top of it. I don't think he's a good comparison at all.


That’s why he got a 1 year, $1 million deal. The second deal is what Quarterbacks like Winston and Jones get
RE: RE: RE: In what universe is Jones not a good passer ?  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/3/2022 2:07 pm : link
In comment 15844277 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
In comment 15844245 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:


Quote:


On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage.



See the video below and let me show you what a laser looks like. Lasers - ( New Window )

Oh, I get it. The definition of a great quarterback is one who has an eternity to throw and can hit wide open receivers downfield. If only we had drafted Herbert, the Giants would look like that.

No one forced you to pull your own pants down with your original "lasers" comment.
Despite the differences, Trubisky's deal is a reasonable benchmark.  
Big Blue Blogger : 10/3/2022 2:15 pm : link
Just note that it's really a 1-year deal for about $6.3MM, with the cap hit spread over 2022 and 2023 and, in effect, a team option for year two that was never likely to be exercised and almost certainly won't now that the Steelers have seen Trubisky up close.

Jameis Winston got significantly more than Trubisky, but his overall body of work is stronger than Trubisky or Jones, and he had already demonstrated in 2021 that he could function well in the Saints' offense. Like Jones, Winston has a concerning injury history. Even Winston's deal - at $14MM AAV - was well below the numbers some posters assume would be necessary to retain Jones.

I don't expect Jones to be the Giants' QB in 2023, but I don't think money will be the main obstacle. The team can probably afford his market price.
RE: RE: RE: In what universe is Jones not a good passer ?  
bw in dc : 10/3/2022 2:26 pm : link
In comment 15844277 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
Oh, I get it. The definition of a great quarterback is one who has an eternity to throw and can hit wide open receivers downfield. If only we had drafted Herbert, the Giants would look like that.


At least have the decency to watch the video if you are going to comment. Because a lot of those plays are not to "wide open receivers downfield". They are plays where Herbert is doing what you mistakenly think Jones is doing - throwing lasers to players in tight coverage.

Look, if you can't see, you just can't see.
RE: RE: there are a lot of weird takes on this thread  
Producer : 10/3/2022 2:29 pm : link
In comment 15843990 lax counsel said:
Quote:
In comment 15843858 Producer said:


Quote:


Daniel Jones and Josh Allen are statistically similar?

Daniel Jones will get $20M+ a year?

The Bucs are drooling over Daniel Jones?

Some of you people need to be kept away from the household cleaners under the sink.



It's truly head scratching. I am also reading now that a win now team that's a qb away will sign Jones? A win now team that's a qb away and signs Jones is still a qb away.

The Giants have won largely based on great scheming for a competent staff thats put Jones in a position to succeed predicated on his limited skill set. The Defense has been great as well.

If you want to get excited about the Giants- and you should - get excited that, for the first time in a decade, they have competent people at the helm. If you want to look at a Jones free agent contract, look at Trubisky for a gap qb/backup role level.


100%

I'm with you and I'm excited about Daboll.
I think the biggest issue is  
Sean : 10/3/2022 2:30 pm : link
There just aren’t many elite QB’s. I saw the Cardinals highlights yesterday. Is Murray worth $240M? Really?

Is Dak worth $35M when Cooper Rush shows no drop off?

I’m not so sure Rush isn’t on the same tier as Jones and he makes nothing.
...  
christian : 10/3/2022 2:30 pm : link
Factors to consider in order of importance:

1) Team Jones gets a vote in any agreement unless it's the 31.5M franchise tag.

2) There is a small band of tweener starters in the NFL, all on 1 or 2 year agreements making between 1M - 14M. All other veteran starters next year will make 29M+ AAV.

3) Given the scenario Sean described, Jones will not be coming off the type of season the above players inked their deals. Players like Mariota, Trubisky, Winston, Geno Smith etc. were either backups or injured and signed deals from a position of weakness.

4) Sean is basically describing a year like Wentz had last year at Indy. 9-8, 3500 Yards, 28 total TDs. The Commanders traded up to 2 third round picks for the right to pay Wentz 28.3M in 2022 (and the option to pay him an average of 26.5M in 2023 and 2024).

5) If Jones is coming off a pretty good year, he's closer to the 1 year value of Wentz, not the 2 year value of the former group.
RE: In what universe is Jones not a good passer ?  
Producer : 10/3/2022 2:30 pm : link
In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage. You can be sure that every other GM has seen that too. The question going forward with Jones is his health. If he can stay healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucs went after him after Brady packs it in, as well as other teams needing a QB without a high pick.


Jones is a bottom tier passer. The entire Giants game plan is to scheme around his limitations as a passer.
RE: Despite the differences, Trubisky's deal is a reasonable benchmark.  
bw in dc : 10/3/2022 2:35 pm : link
In comment 15844331 Big Blue Blogger said:
Quote:
Just note that it's really a 1-year deal for about $6.3MM, with the cap hit spread over 2022 and 2023 and, in effect, a team option for year two that was never likely to be exercised and almost certainly won't now that the Steelers have seen Trubisky up close.

Jameis Winston got significantly more than Trubisky, but his overall body of work is stronger than Trubisky or Jones, and he had already demonstrated in 2021 that he could function well in the Saints' offense. Like Jones, Winston has a concerning injury history. Even Winston's deal - at $14MM AAV - was well below the numbers some posters assume would be necessary to retain Jones.

I don't expect Jones to be the Giants' QB in 2023, but I don't think money will be the main obstacle. The team can probably afford his market price.


I think Jones is looking more and more like Mariota 2.0. They have terrific vertical running ability, but their passing skills don't match up.

And that contract Mariota signed - 2yrs/$18.75M - may also be a reasonable comp.

RE: RE: In what universe is Jones not a good passer ?  
Ron from Ninerland : 10/3/2022 2:36 pm : link
In comment 15844373 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:


Quote:


On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage. You can be sure that every other GM has seen that too. The question going forward with Jones is his health. If he can stay healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucs went after him after Brady packs it in, as well as other teams needing a QB without a high pick.



Jones is a bottom tier passer. The entire Giants game plan is to scheme around his limitations as a passer.
And you're a bottom tier poster, as many others have pointed out. There's no use arguing with you.
BW: Good point about Mariota. Solid comp.  
Big Blue Blogger : 10/3/2022 2:58 pm : link
Jones might enter free agency in a stronger position than MM. On the other hand, there's not-insignificant chance that he's coming off either a benching or another injury.

I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.

What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.

B3  
cosmicj : 10/3/2022 3:27 pm : link
Good post.

It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
RE: BW: Good point about Mariota. Solid comp.  
Producer : 10/3/2022 3:30 pm : link
In comment 15844424 Big Blue Blogger said:
Quote:
Jones might enter free agency in a stronger position than MM. On the other hand, there's not-insignificant chance that he's coming off either a benching or another injury.

I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.

What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.


except Jones can't "make all the throws". There are throws that Herbert, Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, and Mahomes routinely make, that Jones can't make. So this truism that Jones can make all the throws is just a platitude and not based in reality. He might make "enough throws". But that's a different linguistic construction and a different reality.
RE: RE: Look at rows 29 and 30  
joe48 : 10/3/2022 3:35 pm : link
In comment 15843759 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:


Quote:


eerily similar.

even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR.
Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..

The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )



How are their passing stats close?

Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631

Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3

Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A

The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.

I get it you have made it real clear you want Jones gone. Allen should have better stats since his supporting cast is so much better.
RE: RE: RE: Look at rows 29 and 30  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/3/2022 3:42 pm : link
In comment 15844485 joe48 said:
Quote:
In comment 15843759 Jerry in_DC said:


Quote:


In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:


Quote:


eerily similar.

even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR.
Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..

The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )



How are their passing stats close?

Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631

Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3

Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A

The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.


I get it you have made it real clear you want Jones gone. Allen should have better stats since his supporting cast is so much better.

And because he's more talented than Jones. Is that actually in dispute?
RE: B3  
Lines of Scrimmage : 10/3/2022 3:44 pm : link
In comment 15844474 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Good post.

It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.


It is and not really something with a science behind it. Take away a couple key pieces from a 30 mill QB and he might just look like a 15m.

Seems to me a lot of variables in play. At least with a LT or some of the other players it is much more clear-cut.

The processing and decision making is most important and what BD is figuring out. He already said he values QB's who can make the right decisions under pressure.
RE: RE: BW: Good point about Mariota. Solid comp.  
Ron Johnson : 10/3/2022 3:49 pm : link
In comment 15844479 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 15844424 Big Blue Blogger said:


Quote:


Jones might enter free agency in a stronger position than MM. On the other hand, there's not-insignificant chance that he's coming off either a benching or another injury.

I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.

What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.




except Jones can't "make all the throws". There are throws that Herbert, Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, and Mahomes routinely make, that Jones can't make. So this truism that Jones can make all the throws is just a platitude and not based in reality. He might make "enough throws". But that's a different linguistic construction and a different reality.


What "throws" has Jones not made?
RE: B3  
Jerry in_DC : 10/3/2022 3:51 pm : link
In comment 15844474 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Good post.

It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.


See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.

If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.
RE: B3  
JB_in_DC : 10/3/2022 3:57 pm : link
In comment 15844474 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Good post.

It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.


Yep - there's no middle class in the QB economy.

I think there's only been one quarterback in recent years to hit free agency and command a big money deal: Kirk Cousins. For mid-level QBs teams tend to either convince themselves and sign them to big money, or cut bait, with no one else lining up to pay. Still crazy to me that teams gave up legitimate assets for Wentz, and his contract, TWICE.
RE: RE: RE: Look at rows 29 and 30  
BrettNYG10 : 10/3/2022 3:59 pm : link
In comment 15844485 joe48 said:
Quote:
In comment 15843759 Jerry in_DC said:


Quote:


In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:


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eerily similar.

even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR.
Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..

The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )



How are their passing stats close?

Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631

Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3

Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A

The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.


I get it you have made it real clear you want Jones gone. Allen should have better stats since his supporting cast is so much better.


What sort of stats do you think Jones puts up if you put him on the Bills?
RE: RE: Look at rows 29 and 30  
GMen72 : 10/3/2022 4:01 pm : link
In comment 15843759 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:


Quote:


eerily similar.

even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..

The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )



How are their passing stats close?

Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631

Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3

Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A

The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.


This! Is he a good/tough kid? Yes. Does his OLine stink? Yes. Do his WRs stink? Yes Does he make his WRs better? No.

When DJ is cut this offseason, I don't think there is one team that will sign him as a starter. If they do...I think it will look like Trubisky this year. The kid is not good enough, as a passer, to be an NFL starter. Paying DJ anything more than $3-5 million a year is a huge mistake and you can't waste another year on "toughness."
RE: RE: B3  
Mike in NY : 10/3/2022 4:07 pm : link
In comment 15844514 Jerry in_DC said:
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In comment 15844474 cosmicj said:


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Good post.

It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.



See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.

If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.


I like that last paragraph. Not about the QB position, but in general it looks like with OL a line with 5 starters of NFL starting caliber is better than 1 All Pro + 1 or more OL not giving NFL starting caliber performances. Good DC's will exploit your weakest link.
It really feels like  
Mike from SI : 10/3/2022 4:27 pm : link
a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.
RE: It really feels like  
Ron Johnson : 10/3/2022 4:49 pm : link
In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:
Quote:
a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.



How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?
RE: RE: It really feels like  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/3/2022 4:58 pm : link
In comment 15844612 Ron Johnson said:
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In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:


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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.




How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?

By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."
RE: RE: It really feels like  
Mike from SI : 10/3/2022 4:59 pm : link
In comment 15844612 Ron Johnson said:
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In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:


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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.




How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?


I am able to understand Jones' quality because I watch many games of football per week and watch other QB's abilities. The fact that you needed to ask this question is telling.
RE: RE: RE: It really feels like  
Jimmy Googs : 10/3/2022 5:01 pm : link
In comment 15844625 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 15844612 Ron Johnson said:


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In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:


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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.




How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?


By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."


that's funny...
RE: RE: RE: It really feels like  
Ron Johnson : 10/3/2022 6:25 pm : link
In comment 15844625 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 15844612 Ron Johnson said:


Quote:


In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:


Quote:


a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.




How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?


By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."


The play of the Giants offensive line is relevant. The play of the Bucs offensive line is irrelevant.
RE: RE: RE: RE: It really feels like  
Gatorade Dunk : 10/3/2022 6:34 pm : link
In comment 15844752 Ron Johnson said:
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In comment 15844625 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 15844612 Ron Johnson said:


Quote:


In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:


Quote:


a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.




How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?


By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."



The play of the Giants offensive line is relevant. The play of the Bucs offensive line is irrelevant.

You're 100% wrong.

If you're going to make comparisons, relative context is necessary. And if you're going to understand how any player contributes to a winning program, you need to be aware of the status of the rest of the league.

This isn't complicated. But it also doesn't come as a surprise that you don't get it.
RE: RE: It really feels like  
Ten Ton Hammer : 10/3/2022 6:40 pm : link
In comment 15844612 Ron Johnson said:
Quote:
In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:


Quote:


a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.




How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?


This can't be a serious line of thinking.

RE: RE: B3  
cosmicj : 10/3/2022 6:49 pm : link
In comment 15844514 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
In comment 15844474 cosmicj said:


Quote:


Good post.

It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.



See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.

If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.


That’s an interesting way to put it.

The Cousins and Tannehill contracts may be a help here. These guys are overpaid but if they were earning, let’s say, $20-25mm annually, that’s more sensible. After our Cowboys loss, I was wondering if Dak Prescott might fall in the same camp.

In these three cases, there were very public writhings about whether the QB in question was worth it. But someone ended up paying the big money, no matter the concerns.

Then there are the cases with teams that genuinely tried to make a go with flawed but decent QBs. I’m thinking the 49ers and Chiefs with Alex Smith, the Rams with Goff (who was not paid top QB money by the Rams) and the 49ers with Garoppollo (again not paid top tier money). And all of those teams couldn’t make it work and have moved on or are moving on.

So some teams overpay - because they must - and other teams decide not to overpay - and change their minds (0 titles for the teams in that group though they were all excellent squads).

So Jerry, brilliant post. Totally see your point of view and the great minds in the NFL agree. And one more reason to just let Jones walk.

You either have a great QB and he’s worth paying. Or you don’t and your chances of winning a title are slim.
RE: RE: RE: B3  
GMen72 : 10/3/2022 7:14 pm : link
In comment 15844801 cosmicj said:
Quote:
In comment 15844514 Jerry in_DC said:


Quote:


In comment 15844474 cosmicj said:


Quote:


Good post.

It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.



See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.

If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.



That’s an interesting way to put it.

The Cousins and Tannehill contracts may be a help here. These guys are overpaid but if they were earning, let’s say, $20-25mm annually, that’s more sensible. After our Cowboys loss, I was wondering if Dak Prescott might fall in the same camp.

In these three cases, there were very public writhings about whether the QB in question was worth it. But someone ended up paying the big money, no matter the concerns.

Then there are the cases with teams that genuinely tried to make a go with flawed but decent QBs. I’m thinking the 49ers and Chiefs with Alex Smith, the Rams with Goff (who was not paid top QB money by the Rams) and the 49ers with Garoppollo (again not paid top tier money). And all of those teams couldn’t make it work and have moved on or are moving on.

So some teams overpay - because they must - and other teams decide not to overpay - and change their minds (0 titles for the teams in that group though they were all excellent squads).

So Jerry, brilliant post. Totally see your point of view and the great minds in the NFL agree. And one more reason to just let Jones walk.

You either have a great QB and he’s worth paying. Or you don’t and your chances of winning a title are slim.


This amazes me! Are you really trying to compare Jones to Kirk Cousins? Please post their career stats and even try to justify that comparison? Even Tanihill has one season Jones could only dream about! Trubisky and Mariota are the only starting QBs that compare.
RE: RE: RE: BW: Good point about Mariota. Solid comp.  
Producer : 10/3/2022 7:19 pm : link
In comment 15844508 Ron Johnson said:
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In comment 15844479 Producer said:


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In comment 15844424 Big Blue Blogger said:


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Jones might enter free agency in a stronger position than MM. On the other hand, there's not-insignificant chance that he's coming off either a benching or another injury.

I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.

What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.




except Jones can't "make all the throws". There are throws that Herbert, Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, and Mahomes routinely make, that Jones can't make. So this truism that Jones can make all the throws is just a platitude and not based in reality. He might make "enough throws". But that's a different linguistic construction and a different reality.



What "throws" has Jones not made?


Do you watch elite QBs in this league? What do you think makes them elite? Their telegenic smile?
RE: RE: RE: In what universe is Jones not a good passer ?  
Producer : 10/3/2022 7:20 pm : link
In comment 15844384 Ron from Ninerland said:
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In comment 15844373 Producer said:


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In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:


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On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage. You can be sure that every other GM has seen that too. The question going forward with Jones is his health. If he can stay healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucs went after him after Brady packs it in, as well as other teams needing a QB without a high pick.



Jones is a bottom tier passer. The entire Giants game plan is to scheme around his limitations as a passer.

And you're a bottom tier poster, as many others have pointed out. There's no use arguing with you.


Ad hominem attacks, huh? Means you haven't a leg to stand on. An unserious poster.
GMen72  
cosmicj : 10/3/2022 7:45 pm : link
Are you addressing me? If so, read my post again. You misunderstood it.
Yeah the entire game plan is about Jones’ limitations  
UConn4523 : 10/3/2022 8:07 pm : link
and nothing else, lol. He has his shortcomings but he isn’t the #1 thing holding the offense back and may not be the #2 thing either.

Can’t you be reasonable? Why isn’t it ok to think Jones isn’t a huge difference maker while also recognizing that he’s playing in a bottom 5, likely bottom 3 offensive unit in the league?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: It really feels like  
Ron Johnson : 10/3/2022 8:34 pm : link
In comment 15844766 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 15844752 Ron Johnson said:


Quote:


In comment 15844625 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 15844612 Ron Johnson said:


Quote:


In comment 15844576 Mike from SI said:


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a lot of you don't watch other teams play. That's the only way I can account for the evaluations of Jones on here.




How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?


By having relevant context instead of "boy, you guys sure would have run Phil Simms out of town 43 years ago."



The play of the Giants offensive line is relevant. The play of the Bucs offensive line is irrelevant.


You're 100% wrong.

If you're going to make comparisons, relative context is necessary. And if you're going to understand how any player contributes to a winning program, you need to be aware of the status of the rest of the league.

This isn't complicated. But it also doesn't come as a surprise that you don't get it.


Wow, going ‘snot-nosed’ pretty quick huh?

Whatever. do your evaluations tonight. Let us know how Jones grades out
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