I know, another Daniel Jones thread, but I’m curious about this. Assuming Jones is healthy and plays a full season, and let’s also say the Giants finish the year with 8-9 wins. If Jones executes Kafka’s game plan and utilizes his legs and makes a handful of throws, what will that command on the open market?
I’m not talking about airing it out and winning shootouts. If Jones plays efficiently with his legs and makes some important throws to help the team win. I’m thinking the following games where he managed the game very well:
vs Philly (2020)
vs Dallas (2020)
@NO (2021) - best game of his career
vs Carolina (2021)
vs LAV (2021)
vs Philly (2021)
I’m not including the first Tampa game, all of the games above were games where Jones played well and won since 2020. Especially the NO game where he threw for over 400 yards (that has been the outlier).
So, let’s say the Giants let Jones hit FA. How many teams do you think would try to sign him assuming he stays healthy this year?
For comparison, Mitch Trubisky got a base salary of $14.3M over two years from Pittsburgh. Is that the comp?
For me the Jones debate has always been largely about economics. I’m curious to what you think teams would offer him on the open market.
Lastly, I thought the game plan was absolutely brilliant yesterday and Jones executed it perfectly. This coming off a week against Dallas where he kept his eyes down the field and made things happen.
Can't see him getting more than that
18 million a year. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
If so Jones is looking at $20 million, if not maybe $12
If so Jones is looking at $20 million, if not maybe $12
I think that is the fascinating question. In a vacuum not thinking about cap ramifications, I can see the following teams being intrigued by Jones:
WFT
Carolina
Tampa Bay (Brady retires?)
Seattle
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
Either way, I trust Schoen and staff to make the right decision here. They’ve had a chance to work with the guy and see him up close. That’s what gets lost in all this tribalism around DJ. We are going to see where they stand soon enough. I believe he’s a guy you can contend with (put him on Eagles and you are seeing similar results - that much I’m confident in) but this team is still probably 2 years from competing for a SB if they get it the right way and the rookie contract and timeline matches up. The problem is the QB class looks unininspiring again with major question marks. Watched Levis three times now and unless he turns it around he’s a big project. The other top 2 guys are playing on tilted fields, one with probably the most brilliant offensive mind in football and the other is undersized and hurt.
Can't see him getting more than that
He will get a whole lot more than that.
The coaching staff is giving him backup/3rd string game plans. He consistently plays like a backup and puts up backup numbers, at best. It would be ludicrous to invest in him as a starter when he's had 4 years of opportunities and proven that he can't do it
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
The coaching staff is giving him backup/3rd string game plans. He consistently plays like a backup and puts up backup numbers, at best. It would be ludicrous to invest in him as a starter when he's had 4 years of opportunities and proven that he can't do it
Trubisky may have been the right comp years ago, but he isn't now. He's really bad despite having some actual talent to work with on that offense.
While I don't want to commit to Jones long term I do think he's pretty definitively better than Trubisky.
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Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
Disagree. If they were that much higher they would have given him the fifth year option. What you are seeing out of Daboll (and Kafka) is the ability to create an offense for the players we have and not the players we wish we had.
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Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
Yes. I agree and have said this before. This does not mean that they wind up keeping him but based on a lot of factors I see him very much in the picture. Lots more to prove. Being available is a good start.
If he keeps getting injured based upon how the gameplans/how he plays then that number needs to be adjusted down...
Easier said than done.
Fair to who?
You can replace what he gives you for 25-30% of that.
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Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
I think you have nothing besides your imagination to base that on.
I think that’s a good baseline. Bridgewater is a better pure passer but Jones is much more mobile. Both have injury concerns. Inflation adjusted the $6.5mm and make it $8mm.
Easier said than done.
But that's not the question.
Drafting a QB doesn't have to come with stipulation he is better on Day 1. Only that he is a better prospect as he plays/develops...
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Have to see how he holds up. All this running may very well have a impact on his play as the season plays out.
I think the unfortunate think is the OL (pass blocking/WR group has not been very good (being kind). To me he has made some real positive development steps. More confident. I would not be surprised if some in the league value him higher that some on here may. It's really hard to say with so much season to play out.
I think there is a good possibility Schoen and Daboll value him much higher than many here believe
Or there is the good possibility that they value him much less than many on here believe. Care to provide any evidence either way?
Easier said than done.
This will likely be his bargaining chip. And its a fair question. I don't think there are going to be any upgrades in the UFA pool, but we might be able to get someone to tread water.
That said I don't think the Giants want to tread water. WE can clearly win some games as is despite all the problems with the roster. So when you try to get cheaper at QB I fully expect to be worse.
This becomes a moot point if we draft someone, however.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons
there are enough teams that might need a QB that he will get more then trubisky IF he can stay healthy the rest of the way. if he is not durable the rest of year there really is not much to discuss because if he cant use his legs he loses a main weapon.
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Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.
There is no way they are tagging him at $30M.
Signed QB yes, but not necessarily a QB better than Jones (see hitdog's list although I would take some names off of it)
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons
there are enough teams that might need a QB that he will get more then trubisky IF he can stay healthy the rest of the way. if he is not durable the rest of year there really is not much to discuss because if he cant use his legs he loses a main weapon.
You can add the Bucs (who won't have a high pick) and Seahawks as well.
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In comment 15843564 Ivan15 said:
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Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.
There is no way they are tagging him at $30M.
If the Giants decide they want Jones and have the general framework of a deal worked out they can certainly tag him to gain some additional leverage. They full well knew that was a possibility when they did not pick up his 5th year option. I am not advocating them doing that....Jones has alot more to prove in this system and he needs to avoid serious injury.
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Disagree. If they were that much higher they would have given him the fifth year option. What you are seeing out of Daboll (and Kafka) is the ability to create an offense for the players we have and not the players we wish we had.
I think you’re overstating the importance of that. I think they didn’t want to give him the fifth year until they had a chance to work with him. Now, I don’t know what they’ve decided if anything. But the fifth year option thing isn’t as important as many here believe.
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In comment 15843570 AnnapolisMike said:
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In comment 15843564 Ivan15 said:
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Essentially, he is there but is not yet free to sign with another team. The Giants now have no control over Jones future. He can choose an offer from the Giants at any time or he can sign with anyone else in 2023.
The team that signs him probably will sign him as a backup behind a borderline starter or a yet to be drafted rookie and give him incentives if he becomes the starter. That is kind of the same position as Trubisky was in but Jones will have relatively more recent starts so he may command a bit more than Trubisky if he finishes with 8 wins. If he finishes with 10+ wins, he may get a better offer sooner from the Giants than he can wait to get anywhere else.
Right now, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Saints, Panthers, even Patriots, Bucs could be opportunities.
The Giants can use the Franchise tag on Jones I believe and negotiate from there.
There is no way they are tagging him at $30M.
If the Giants decide they want Jones and have the general framework of a deal worked out they can certainly tag him to gain some additional leverage. They full well knew that was a possibility when they did not pick up his 5th year option. I am not advocating them doing that....Jones has alot more to prove in this system and he needs to avoid serious injury.
Then what to do with Saquon? I thing the tag for Saquon makes a lot more sense.
its not "projection" when you're entering your 5th year. you are what you are at that point
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons
Giants - TBD. Probably no.
Colts - depends on how the season goes with Ryan. So, a TBD.
Saints - TBD.
Dolphins - QB need depends on Tua's health. They have the parts to win now. That would be a LOT of pressure on Jones.
Lions - Goff is a better option. I don't see it.
Panthers - They have two version of Jones on their roster - Mayfield and Darnold. Do you really think they go back to the well to try that again?? NFW.
Houston - Don't see it. They will draft a QB and Mills is already a built-in bridge-QB.
Atlanta - They will also draft a QB and they have Mariotta on an affordable deal for two years.
I only see three teams at in the "maybe" status. And they feel like soft maybes to me.
- giants
- colts
- saints
- dolphins maybe
- lions maybe
- panthers
- Houston maybe
- falcons
there are enough teams that might need a QB that he will get more then trubisky IF he can stay healthy the rest of the way. if he is not durable the rest of year there really is not much to discuss because if he cant use his legs he loses a main weapon.
i'll play!
SKINS - daniel jones = carson wentz
COLTS - they fully guaranteed the final 2 years of Ryans contract, 54 million
SAINTS - Jamies is slightly better than Jones, def not an upgrade
DOLPHINS - Tua will be back. plus they have Bridgewater (who is the exact same QB as Daniel Jones, mid tier)
LIONS - not sure you've been paying attention, but Goff is 3rd in the league in passing so far. he's having a great year so far
PANTHERS - they are a mess. going from Darnold to Mayfield to Jones would be pure comedy
HOUSTON - Is Jones better than Davis Mills? Mills makes 900K this year, 1.1 next year and 1.3 the year after. Does a 15 million/year Jones make them better?
FALCONS - Mariota = Jones, same player
I think that’s a good baseline. Bridgewater is a better pure passer but Jones is much more mobile. Both have injury concerns. Inflation adjusted the $6.5mm and make it $8mm.
Their situations are so different that's like comparing apples and oranges. Bridgewater is 29 and signed a one year deal with Miami as a clear back up deal. When he was younger he signed a three year 63 million deal with the Panthers. At his age, and if a team views Jones as a possible starter he will get far more than the one year deal Bridgewater took in Miami.
You can not like him and not want us to sign him longterm (I don't) but there are QB's that cost way way more than him playing way way worse. I hope you know that.
I don't see that being worth 15-20 million.
I'm guessing 10 +/- a couple.
Of course, the devil is in the details. It's all about the guaranteed dollars. The headline contract may look rich, but low guaranteed and first year make it poor.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye
Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
The difference is Jones is running because they don’t trust the offense to pass the ball downfield and second in the league in passing.
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eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
The difference is Jones is running because they don’t trust the offense to pass the ball downfield and second in the league in passing.
When a team is struggling mightily at OL, and having arguably the worst receiving unit in the league, you have no idea what the coaches do or don't trust about Jones's passing.
if jones gets replaced this year or injured then the Trubisky deal is reasonable - and that's probably the only scenario where he hits UFA without some kind of tag.
if he were to complete the year as starter as speculated in the OP playing at the level he is now, i think the teddy bridgewater contract a few years ago is probably the best recent comp for a "fair deal" (3 years, 63m) but that is more of a floor bc that deal is outdated and bridgewater was coming with baggage - so with the rapidly escalating salaries any QB would prefer a big 1 year before signing a mid level contract like that.
if he continues to improve over the course of the year i think he's going to put himself in line for a wentz/jimmy g/tannehill type of contract and someone will pay it.
so end of day there are 3 scenarios:
1. injured or replaced = trubisky deal
2. continues playing solid = tag (possible trade)
3. improves as year goes on = tag / jimmy g/ryan t/kirk/wentz 5x30m level extension (possible trade)
i could see him back with any of the 3 or gone with any of the 3 but think back is the higher probability.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.