I know, another Daniel Jones thread, but I’m curious about this. Assuming Jones is healthy and plays a full season, and let’s also say the Giants finish the year with 8-9 wins. If Jones executes Kafka’s game plan and utilizes his legs and makes a handful of throws, what will that command on the open market?
I’m not talking about airing it out and winning shootouts. If Jones plays efficiently with his legs and makes some important throws to help the team win. I’m thinking the following games where he managed the game very well:
vs Philly (2020)
vs Dallas (2020)
@NO (2021) - best game of his career
vs Carolina (2021)
vs LAV (2021)
vs Philly (2021)
I’m not including the first Tampa game, all of the games above were games where Jones played well and won since 2020. Especially the NO game where he threw for over 400 yards (that has been the outlier).
So, let’s say the Giants let Jones hit FA. How many teams do you think would try to sign him assuming he stays healthy this year?
For comparison, Mitch Trubisky got a base salary of $14.3M over two years from Pittsburgh. Is that the comp?
For me the Jones debate has always been largely about economics. I’m curious to what you think teams would offer him on the open market.
Lastly, I thought the game plan was absolutely brilliant yesterday and Jones executed it perfectly. This coming off a week against Dallas where he kept his eyes down the field and made things happen.
My apologies.
yes, its worked, barely. we shouldve lost to the Titans.
we've beaten two teams that are proving to be trash (panthers and bears). our 1st real challenge was dallas and we lost.
daniel jones has no value (as a quarterback)
His play this year will determine his worth, no matter what the BBI QB "experts" say. He has to stay healthy is the real issue, but 7 wins (my estimate) is 7 wins - with no WRs. You can credit Dabol with the wins, but Jones resume will have about 7 wins or more. The cost and risk of drafting the "can't miss" rookie QB is pretty high these days.
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saying they don't trust Jones on every thread doesn't make it true. Their gameplan has been working - moving chains, trying to control the clock, and limiting turnovers. That's kind of a smart strategy when you have no WR's and a patchwork OL that's still getting blown up in Pass Pro.
yes, its worked, barely. we shouldve lost to the Titans.
we've beaten two teams that are proving to be trash (panthers and bears). our 1st real challenge was dallas and we lost.
Don't really care much for "barely" - when teams "barely" beat us its ok apparently, but not when we win? Garbage. You take wins any way you can get them in this league and with our personnel if it means a run heavy gameplan, so be it.
I'm not advocating for keeping Jones either. Just pointing out he's better than some of the comps here and he's going to command more money than many here think as well. That's what the thread is about.
Daniel Jones will get $20M+ a year?
The Bucs are drooling over Daniel Jones?
Some of you people need to be kept away from the household cleaners under the sink.
Lets Get Specific....
List the starting QBs in the league that you think Daniel Jones is better than
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Joe Burrow
Tua
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Zach Wilson
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Mac Jones
As someone whose been very critical of Jones, anyone saying he has been the worst of this bunch is just being unfair.
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I'm not advocating for keeping Jones either. Just pointing out he's better than some of the comps here and he's going to command more money than many here think as well. That's what the thread is about.
Lets Get Specific....
List the starting QBs in the league that you think Daniel Jones is better than
No thanks, I really don't want to beat the horse any more than it has.
Structured in a way that makes it very cheap to walk away from in 2 years.
Something like $10M signing bonus, and salaries of 10 / 15 / 18 / 22 / 25. First two years fully guaranteed. Cuttable after 2 years with just $6M of bonus left to hit the cap.
They also can still look for a higher end QB in the draft if the above scenario does not work and strike down the road.
Like you I would not be able to give a monetary value on a QB with a high degree of accuracy but I like your thinking.
I have seen this over and over.
While neither a DJ supporter or hater, I like to keep an open mind and my options open.
I have no problem admitting if I am wrong or if I am not providing proper data for my argument.
My interest in the rushing by Josh and Daniel are based on is this a system for a specific QB or can anybody run it.
I wanted to see what Taylor would do in a game environment.
It's just odd to me that the rushing yards are almost the same.
Remember this is all out of your control. Its not your job on the line.
It's ok to state flaws and have doubts but also acknowledge potential root causes to the situation.
To say someone sucks without taking in all the circumstances is just lazy.
If DJ had weapons and this Oline this year with a healthy SB and still was not producing then yes, your opinion is valid.
To do what he is doing without talent like last year and when he went down they could not even move the ball speaks volumes.
It raises my eyebrows.
In the end it is BD and JS decision, so no need for me to bash or defend DJ. I have no control over it.
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Joe Burrow
Tua
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Zach Wilson
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Mac Jones
As someone whose been very critical of Jones, anyone saying he has been the worst of this bunch is just being unfair.
There are a lot of TBD QBs in that list. And I agree, Jones is not the worst.
There is better way to look at that list, IMV, are the QBs we could have drafted based on our draft position.
And right now, there are three on a HoF arc: Allen, Jackson and Herbert.
That really stings.
Daniel Jones will get $20M+ a year?
The Bucs are drooling over Daniel Jones?
Some of you people need to be kept away from the household cleaners under the sink.
It's truly head scratching. I am also reading now that a win now team that's a qb away will sign Jones? A win now team that's a qb away and signs Jones is still a qb away.
The Giants have won largely based on great scheming for a competent staff thats put Jones in a position to succeed predicated on his limited skill set. The Defense has been great as well.
If you want to get excited about the Giants- and you should - get excited that, for the first time in a decade, they have competent people at the helm. If you want to look at a Jones free agent contract, look at Trubisky for a gap qb/backup role level.
Winston was pretty widely known to be reckless and uncoachable. His first FA deal reflected that. He's also back to throwing picks again and is always hurt on top of it. I don't think he's a good comparison at all.
Lasers? Really?
See the video below and let me show you what a laser looks like.
Lasers - ( New Window )
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On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage.
See the video below and let me show you what a laser looks like. Lasers - ( New Window )
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Winston got a 1 year basically minimum deal to be a backup, then a 1 year, $12 million deal in 2022. Winston showed way more flashes his first two years in the league than Jones has. Jones in all likely hood signs a 1 year deal for $10-12 million. There’s not going to be a multi year deal for him out there.
Winston was pretty widely known to be reckless and uncoachable. His first FA deal reflected that. He's also back to throwing picks again and is always hurt on top of it. I don't think he's a good comparison at all.
That’s why he got a 1 year, $1 million deal. The second deal is what Quarterbacks like Winston and Jones get
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In comment 15844193 Ron from Ninerland said:
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On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage.
See the video below and let me show you what a laser looks like. Lasers - ( New Window )
Oh, I get it. The definition of a great quarterback is one who has an eternity to throw and can hit wide open receivers downfield. If only we had drafted Herbert, the Giants would look like that.
No one forced you to pull your own pants down with your original "lasers" comment.
Jameis Winston got significantly more than Trubisky, but his overall body of work is stronger than Trubisky or Jones, and he had already demonstrated in 2021 that he could function well in the Saints' offense. Like Jones, Winston has a concerning injury history. Even Winston's deal - at $14MM AAV - was well below the numbers some posters assume would be necessary to retain Jones.
I don't expect Jones to be the Giants' QB in 2023, but I don't think money will be the main obstacle. The team can probably afford his market price.
At least have the decency to watch the video if you are going to comment. Because a lot of those plays are not to "wide open receivers downfield". They are plays where Herbert is doing what you mistakenly think Jones is doing - throwing lasers to players in tight coverage.
Look, if you can't see, you just can't see.
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Daniel Jones and Josh Allen are statistically similar?
Daniel Jones will get $20M+ a year?
The Bucs are drooling over Daniel Jones?
Some of you people need to be kept away from the household cleaners under the sink.
It's truly head scratching. I am also reading now that a win now team that's a qb away will sign Jones? A win now team that's a qb away and signs Jones is still a qb away.
The Giants have won largely based on great scheming for a competent staff thats put Jones in a position to succeed predicated on his limited skill set. The Defense has been great as well.
If you want to get excited about the Giants- and you should - get excited that, for the first time in a decade, they have competent people at the helm. If you want to look at a Jones free agent contract, look at Trubisky for a gap qb/backup role level.
100%
I'm with you and I'm excited about Daboll.
Is Dak worth $35M when Cooper Rush shows no drop off?
I’m not so sure Rush isn’t on the same tier as Jones and he makes nothing.
1) Team Jones gets a vote in any agreement unless it's the 31.5M franchise tag.
2) There is a small band of tweener starters in the NFL, all on 1 or 2 year agreements making between 1M - 14M. All other veteran starters next year will make 29M+ AAV.
3) Given the scenario Sean described, Jones will not be coming off the type of season the above players inked their deals. Players like Mariota, Trubisky, Winston, Geno Smith etc. were either backups or injured and signed deals from a position of weakness.
4) Sean is basically describing a year like Wentz had last year at Indy. 9-8, 3500 Yards, 28 total TDs. The Commanders traded up to 2 third round picks for the right to pay Wentz 28.3M in 2022 (and the option to pay him an average of 26.5M in 2023 and 2024).
5) If Jones is coming off a pretty good year, he's closer to the 1 year value of Wentz, not the 2 year value of the former group.
Jones is a bottom tier passer. The entire Giants game plan is to scheme around his limitations as a passer.
Jameis Winston got significantly more than Trubisky, but his overall body of work is stronger than Trubisky or Jones, and he had already demonstrated in 2021 that he could function well in the Saints' offense. Like Jones, Winston has a concerning injury history. Even Winston's deal - at $14MM AAV - was well below the numbers some posters assume would be necessary to retain Jones.
I don't expect Jones to be the Giants' QB in 2023, but I don't think money will be the main obstacle. The team can probably afford his market price.
I think Jones is looking more and more like Mariota 2.0. They have terrific vertical running ability, but their passing skills don't match up.
And that contract Mariota signed - 2yrs/$18.75M - may also be a reasonable comp.
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On the rare occasions that Sheppard has been healthy and back when Slayton was worth a damn, Jones showed that he is indeed a good passer that can throw lasers downfield into tight coverage. You can be sure that every other GM has seen that too. The question going forward with Jones is his health. If he can stay healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucs went after him after Brady packs it in, as well as other teams needing a QB without a high pick.
Jones is a bottom tier passer. The entire Giants game plan is to scheme around his limitations as a passer.
I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.
What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.
What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.
except Jones can't "make all the throws". There are throws that Herbert, Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, and Mahomes routinely make, that Jones can't make. So this truism that Jones can make all the throws is just a platitude and not based in reality. He might make "enough throws". But that's a different linguistic construction and a different reality.
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eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR.
Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
I get it you have made it real clear you want Jones gone. Allen should have better stats since his supporting cast is so much better.
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In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:
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eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR.
Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
I get it you have made it real clear you want Jones gone. Allen should have better stats since his supporting cast is so much better.
And because he's more talented than Jones. Is that actually in dispute?
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
It is and not really something with a science behind it. Take away a couple key pieces from a 30 mill QB and he might just look like a 15m.
Seems to me a lot of variables in play. At least with a LT or some of the other players it is much more clear-cut.
The processing and decision making is most important and what BD is figuring out. He already said he values QB's who can make the right decisions under pressure.
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Jones might enter free agency in a stronger position than MM. On the other hand, there's not-insignificant chance that he's coming off either a benching or another injury.
I think Jones's arm talent is in the "good enough" category. He can make all the throws, although neither his power nor his accuracy is exceptional. The bigger question with Jones is whether he sees and processes with sufficient speed and acuity to get the most from his arm talent. I don't think any of us can perform that level of analysis. As a runner, he's more fast than elusive. So he can take a well-designed, well-blocked play to the house; but he seldom frustrates a defense by escaping trouble, like Jackson or Hurts or Fields. He did it a couple of times on Sunday, which stood out because it's not his strength.
What does this profile mean for his market value? I honestly don't know. I suspect that different teams will value him quite differently, because so much of his value involves projection into a more favorable set of circumstances.
except Jones can't "make all the throws". There are throws that Herbert, Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, and Mahomes routinely make, that Jones can't make. So this truism that Jones can make all the throws is just a platitude and not based in reality. He might make "enough throws". But that's a different linguistic construction and a different reality.
What "throws" has Jones not made?
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.
If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
Yep - there's no middle class in the QB economy.
I think there's only been one quarterback in recent years to hit free agency and command a big money deal: Kirk Cousins. For mid-level QBs teams tend to either convince themselves and sign them to big money, or cut bait, with no one else lining up to pay. Still crazy to me that teams gave up legitimate assets for Wentz, and his contract, TWICE.
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In comment 15843717 Tom from LI said:
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eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR.
Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
I get it you have made it real clear you want Jones gone. Allen should have better stats since his supporting cast is so much better.
What sort of stats do you think Jones puts up if you put him on the Bills?
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eerily similar.
even their passing stats are close considering that DJ has absolutely no WR. Granted Allen has 10 TD and Jones has 2 throwing..
The rushing really caught my eye Rushing Stats - ( New Window )
How are their passing stats close?
Allen is 2nd in the NFL in yards with 1227
Jones is 30th with 631
Allen is 4th in TDs with 10
Jones is 27th in TDs with 3
Jones 28th in Y/A, 27th in AY/A
The guy that his passing #s are similar to is Trubisky, who has been terrible this year.
This! Is he a good/tough kid? Yes. Does his OLine stink? Yes. Do his WRs stink? Yes Does he make his WRs better? No.
When DJ is cut this offseason, I don't think there is one team that will sign him as a starter. If they do...I think it will look like Trubisky this year. The kid is not good enough, as a passer, to be an NFL starter. Paying DJ anything more than $3-5 million a year is a huge mistake and you can't waste another year on "toughness."
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Good post.
It’s really interesting that there’s not a range of passers earning $15-30mm annually. It suggests to me that the market is f***** up.
See I think that market makes total sense. It says you either have a QB or you don't. If you do, you pay him.
If you don't, then you're just treading water while trying to find one. The 18th best QB just isn't that much more valuable for team success than the 30th or 35th. None of them are good enough.
I like that last paragraph. Not about the QB position, but in general it looks like with OL a line with 5 starters of NFL starting caliber is better than 1 All Pro + 1 or more OL not giving NFL starting caliber performances. Good DC's will exploit your weakest link.
How do you evaluate Jones by watching other teams?