According to The Boston Globe, there have been 234.8 rushing yards per NFL game this season, the second-highest number since 1990. The NFL is on pace for the most 200-yard rushing games since 1983.
1) a lot more pedestrian QB play these days (except for the few elite folks, and even some of them have mediocre passing stats so far this season - Wilson, Brady)
Teams were never going to be able to just pass without any thought of the run game, and why would you if the defense is playing pass? Don't make it easy on the defense by passing into the teeth of a defense meant to stop the pass game.
The passing league was essentially created for those guys. A lot of the QBs coming out of college now have a dual threat to their game and don’t rely strictly on pocket passing.
Add all that up and you have the spike in rushing yards per game.
1) a lot more pedestrian QB play these days (except for the few elite folks, and even some of them have mediocre passing stats so far this season - Wilson, Brady)
2) more QB running.
I think this is the reason, and along with that, offensive design given the QBs.
in 2010 when the Giants play at the Colts. Perry Fewell was determined to not let Peyton beat them with his arm by playing nickel and dime defenses. Peyton said fine, he came out in passing formations, he probably had a pass play called, adjusted once the defense showed it's hand and gashed the Giants on the ground, then some of the players over-corrected and Peyton beat them with a long td pass to Dallas Clark.
personnel changes to adopt to the big passing offenses. For example smaller, but faster, linebackers who can cover better. This has made the pendulum swing back to running because these defenses aren't as physical
and so has running. What is different is the balance and different teams treat creating balance differently.
Passing teams have gotten stomped by elite D's. Elite run teams have gotten stump by teams who take it away.
To get to where you want you better be able to do both unless you get very lucky. How it tilts balance wise will always vary team by team based on that teams talent and the situation of the game.
but there could be a few things at work. Look at some of the top running teams and their circumstances:
Cleveland is without their dynamic, playmaking QB (Watson) and are pounding the ball instead with their excellent OL and RBs. Brissett is in few game-manager mode. They are 2nd in the NFL is yards per game.
Philly has the most versatile OL in the NFL. They are running the piss out of the ball AND they have a great running QB in hurts.
NYG is leading the league in yards per game. No one saw this coming. Barkley seems to have found in 2018 form and Kafka has taken full advantage of Jones's running ability.
Atlanta is sort of similar to NYG. They are 4th in yards per game and are in smash mouth mode with Patterson and a running threat in Mariota. Patterson was having a great year until he got hurt his past weekend against Cleveland.
Detroit is a very good running team with a very underrated OL and one of the best duos of RBs in the NFL in Swift and Williams.
Baltimore is of course back in the mix with a healthier stable of RBs and the best running QB in the NFL. So, they are making a big impact on running yardage.
Chicago, as we saw, are completely inept at throwing the ball. They have the worst pass protecting OL in football and their WRs are the definition of mediocre. But they have a stable of good RBs and Fields is a great runner.
And then you have the usual suspects with good OLs and RBs: Green Bay, 9ers, Chiefs and Pats.
Let's see where this finishes up, but the DCs in this league are very bright and they will adjust.
To throw for 4300 yards or more, compared to 10 last year and 6 in 2020. It’s still very much a passing league.
Interesting point. The rushing yards stat originally quoted doesn't necessarily mean that rushing yards as a % of total yards is up. (Could just be a sign of poor defense all around.)
Some teams that have the QB don’t have the receivers.
Some teams that don’t have the QB have the receivers .
Coordinators have now accepted the college concept that QBs can run with it. Run successfully . And stay healthy .
1) a lot more pedestrian QB play these days (except for the few elite folks, and even some of them have mediocre passing stats so far this season - Wilson, Brady)
2) more QB running.
I agree with both of these as reasons why
In 2021 the NFL average rushing yards per game was 115.2.
Offenses shattered records with explosive passes, and teams are continuing to run more two-high looks. Offenses that can punish light boxes with the rung game will not only gain yards on the ground but eventually force defenses into more favorable passing looks after adjustments. Offenses that can't run against light boxes will continue to have to pass on hard mode.
I didn't check it but your rushing per game #'s don't match what Eric stated in the OP
its his number, but doubled to account for the 2 teams in the game, matching what's in the OP. Something weird about the Boston Globe's data unless they completely misprinted what they are trying to convey.
why would Cleveland change its approach with Watson? Watson can just make more plays when its needed but I doubt they change things dramatically unless the situation mandates it. It also helps out their D which is not upper tier.
DC's are very smart and will adjust? What are OC's? Stupid. They can adjust as well. Which is why you always want to do both well.
If you have elite skill talent you are going to push the envelope. There are not that many who can do that
Running controls the clock, wears down your opponent and keeps you defense off the field
Someone looked at all the regular season NFL games 2002–19 (the 8 division / 32 team era) which is 32 * 16 * 18 = 4604 games.. 4598 of these games had a winner, and there were six ties. Of the 4598 games that had a winner:
the team with more rushing attempts won 3589
the team with more rushing yards won 3261
The team with more TOP won 293
The team with more passing yards won 700 less games than more rushing
This was overwhelming - 78% wins if you have more rushing attempts and 71% with more rushing yards
why would Cleveland change its approach with Watson? Watson can just make more plays when its needed but I doubt they change things dramatically unless the situation mandates it. It also helps out their D which is not upper tier.
DC's are very smart and will adjust? What are OC's? Stupid. They can adjust as well. Which is why you always want to do both well.
Do you think Cleveland spent $250M (nearly fully guaranteed) on Watson to not fully utilize his passing abilities?
I wasn't suggesting OCs are "stupid". Just making the point that DCs will evaluate these early trends and adjust and make teams try to beat them in other ways.
I don't think I said anything about not using his abilities. I said they would not alter much and he can make more of the pass plays when it calls. Some team will take its run game away and that is what you are paying for. More so in the playoffs when it is more likely a team does that.
The NFL has built defenses to play shell now and limiting explosive plays at all costs. We are going to see a balance of teams trying to build to run the ball and finding guys good in the horizontal game (and why a dude like Hunter Renfrow got a fat bag). The writing was on wall last year with how teams approached Mahomes. The reality is there is one guy in the NFL that can consistently beat you if you play this way and he’s about to retire. Rogers is probably second but he has a tendency to get impatient.
For all the glitz and glamour of Mahomes, he’s still fundamentally sloppy at times (which is why evals were all over the place on him because he may have had the sloppiest feet of a prospect since Darnold) and it’s tough to be that consistent with the ball unless your fundamentals are sound. The best way to beat this now is run game because defenses have gotten lighter and faster and make sure your OL don’t hold even if they get beat (which can be coached and they won’t get the QB killed)
why would Cleveland change its approach with Watson? Watson can just make more plays when its needed but I doubt they change things dramatically unless the situation mandates it. It also helps out their D which is not upper tier.
DC's are very smart and will adjust? What are OC's? Stupid. They can adjust as well. Which is why you always want to do both well.
Do you think Cleveland spent $250M (nearly fully guaranteed) on Watson to not fully utilize his passing abilities?
I wasn't suggesting OCs are "stupid". Just making the point that DCs will evaluate these early trends and adjust and make teams try to beat them in other ways.
You can talk about adjusting all day long, but what you can’t adjust on fly is rosters and the league has trended smaller and faster on defense to play shell.
They paid Watson because they felt Baker was holding them back and wasn’t good enough to win a SB with a very good roster and he was the best available option. Time will tell of it was right move because they have a pretty small window and it’s gonna be hard to expect results this year from a guy that hasn’t played in ages.
You can talk about adjusting all day long, but what you can’t adjust on fly is rosters and the league has trended smaller and faster on defense to play shell.
They paid Watson because they felt Baker was holding them back and wasn’t good enough to win a SB with a very good roster and he was the best available option. Time will tell of it was right move because they have a pretty small window and it’s gonna be hard to expect results this year from a guy that hasn’t played in ages.
I've heard analysts like Colinsworth make the point about more teams going two high safeties/shell to reduce big plays. At least that's what he said he's seen in the difference between the state of play this year versus last. Nothing groundbreaking there...
But I'm not sure I'm buying the smaller defenders theory yet, although I do think the linebacker position has gotten smaller because you need the speed to cover sideline to sideline in the short-medium passing game.
IMV, the gap eaters up front are as big as ever. And if they do their job and take away the gaps, the smaller LBs should be able to knife through and around to stop the run. So, the earth movers help offset the size change in LBs.
I wonder if more offensive teams are changing their approach to the running game. I'd like to see some intel on that. It's a copycat league and maybe - and this is just guessing - teams are using more running schemes like Shanahan employs.
Eric, I thought you were going somewhere else with your thread title
Growing up in the 60s, the offense formations were very few (highly standarized -- split T) and the pre-snap movement was practically non-existent.
I'm sure truebluelarry can speak alot about the razzmatazz offenses of the '30s and '40s which I think has been replicated in some ways in today's offenses!
Especially for explosive Os like KC and Buffalo. The Athletic Football Show had detailed #s on it last year, but being an audio format, it's hard to reference them.
The "increase" in rushing though is not really true, as noted in my link.
You can talk about adjusting all day long, but what you can’t adjust on fly is rosters and the league has trended smaller and faster on defense to play shell.
They paid Watson because they felt Baker was holding them back and wasn’t good enough to win a SB with a very good roster and he was the best available option. Time will tell of it was right move because they have a pretty small window and it’s gonna be hard to expect results this year from a guy that hasn’t played in ages.
I've heard analysts like Colinsworth make the point about more teams going two high safeties/shell to reduce big plays. At least that's what he said he's seen in the difference between the state of play this year versus last. Nothing groundbreaking there...
I wonder if more offensive teams are changing their approach to the running game. I'd like to see some intel on that. It's a copycat league and maybe - and this is just guessing - teams are using more running schemes like Shanahan employs.
Some defensive trends through week 3 of 2022:
Quote:
NFL Teams are employing coverages with different frequency in 2022, including putting less emphasis on man schemes. Rates of Cover-1 man have dropped to 19.8% from a four-year average of 26.5%. Schemes with multiple deep safeties have jumped, including Cover-2 zone (up to 13.8% usage in 2022 from a four-year average of 11.2%) and Quarters (up to 14.7% usage in 2022 from a four-year average of 11.4%).
Defenses are running Cover-0 with no deep safeties at a slightly higher frequency of 3.7% of plays, versus four-year average of 2.7%. And they’re doing it more effectively — the average expected points added per play against Cover-0 is -0.21 in 2022, about 0.40 points per play — and 80 net points added per season — lower than the four-year average. Cover-0 is a high-risk, high-reward style of play that has been worth the risk for defenses so far in 2022.
Defenses have blitzed on 38.5% of plays in 2022, a big jump over the average of 27.4% over the previous four seasons.
There was blog posted today on SBNation on how teams have adapted their run game approach schematically recently, linked below. Link - ( New Window )
You can talk about adjusting all day long, but what you can’t adjust on fly is rosters and the league has trended smaller and faster on defense to play shell.
They paid Watson because they felt Baker was holding them back and wasn’t good enough to win a SB with a very good roster and he was the best available option. Time will tell of it was right move because they have a pretty small window and it’s gonna be hard to expect results this year from a guy that hasn’t played in ages.
I've heard analysts like Colinsworth make the point about more teams going two high safeties/shell to reduce big plays. At least that's what he said he's seen in the difference between the state of play this year versus last. Nothing groundbreaking there...
But I'm not sure I'm buying the smaller defenders theory yet, although I do think the linebacker position has gotten smaller because you need the speed to cover sideline to sideline in the short-medium passing game.
IMV, the gap eaters up front are as big as ever. And if they do their job and take away the gaps, the smaller LBs should be able to knife through and around to stop the run. So, the earth movers help offset the size change in LBs.
I wonder if more offensive teams are changing their approach to the running game. I'd like to see some intel on that. It's a copycat league and maybe - and this is just guessing - teams are using more running schemes like Shanahan employs.
The trend is definitely towards smaller interior guys who can rush. Maybe you used to have one of those guys used to come off the bench, not its the opposite where teams carry maybe one dude that eats gaps. It's the best way to stymie the quick passing game. It's also why guards are starting to get paid because smaller interior guys against guys that can't pass pro is blowing up gameplans (as we've seen here)
NFL Teams are employing coverages with different frequency in 2022, including putting less emphasis on man schemes. Rates of Cover-1 man have dropped to 19.8% from a four-year average of 26.5%. Schemes with multiple deep safeties have jumped, including Cover-2 zone (up to 13.8% usage in 2022 from a four-year average of 11.2%) and Quarters (up to 14.7% usage in 2022 from a four-year average of 11.4%).
Defenses are running Cover-0 with no deep safeties at a slightly higher frequency of 3.7% of plays, versus four-year average of 2.7%. And they’re doing it more effectively — the average expected points added per play against Cover-0 is -0.21 in 2022, about 0.40 points per play — and 80 net points added per season — lower than the four-year average. Cover-0 is a high-risk, high-reward style of play that has been worth the risk for defenses so far in 2022.
Defenses have blitzed on 38.5% of plays in 2022, a big jump over the average of 27.4% over the previous four seasons.
There was blog posted today on SBNation on how teams have adapted their run game approach schematically recently, linked below. Link - ( New Window )
Excellent info. Thanks for sharing. The cover-0 stats are very interesting.
Football is such a complicated game where match-ups dictate so much of the strategy. Outside of the division, teams are playing 8+ new teams every year, so that alone could impact some of these early trends.
...the presentation of a “Bear” (5 defensive linemen, 2 linebackers) front but can still play the pass by having 5 DBs on the field instead of 2 LBs. That way, against outside zone, the edge players can set a hard edge, and funnel everything back inside, where the help is. When teams aren’t in this front, they’re normally in a 2-4-5 look, with two down linemen and 2 rushers on the edge that are counted as linebackers. They’re playing the pass on the way to the run, but now offenses are taking advantage by forcing the issue in the run game.
Realizing that teams are preparing for them to run outside zone a whole lot, we’re beginning to see a lot more gap scheme runs. These are runs like power and counter, which is slowly beginning to come back into the league. If we use 2021 again as a reference point, through four games last season only one team ran gap scheme plays 30 or more times: the Cleveland Browns. This year, the Lions have joined them, and it’s really interesting to see how they do it against five man fronts.
Gap schemes go like this: if he’s in my gap, I block the gap down to that side. Normally this is followed by a guard or tackle pulling to the side where the down-blocks are happening. How this beats the 5 man front is with when there’s a tight end in the game, there’s six blockers accounting for six people in the box. Instead of blocking an area or zone, they’re blocking whoever is in their gap. The Lions are running this to perfection behind an awesome offensive line that certifiably hauls ass up front, and taking advantage of light boxes, and even lighter players.
I didn't check it but your rushing per game #'s don't match what Eric stated in the OP
The OP covers 2 teams combined avg rushing yards.
I use the Pro Football Reference site which I think has decent quality as to their stats. Globe is different by a bit.
Nevertheless, the year over year change seems immaterial. At least in my view after 4 games.
Eric never insinuated that the trend just started THIS season so I’m not sure what your point is about last season? It’s completely irrelevant
Do you actually think before you post or do you just like to find somebody different to bitch at every day?
There was no intent to shame Eric, only to suggest the stats show there really isn't a story here. The OP title, which I assume was taken from a flawed Boston Globe article, says Turn Back the Clock for a reason. It doesn't say Turn Back the Clock but do it slowly to match this long-term trend in rushing.
It was intending to suggest this is a recent material change. And it really isn't.
Which actually makes you completely irrelevant.
If you have a QB who can rush for, say 50 yards per game, tack that
1) a lot more pedestrian QB play these days (except for the few elite folks, and even some of them have mediocre passing stats so far this season - Wilson, Brady)
2) more QB running.
The passing league was essentially created for those guys. A lot of the QBs coming out of college now have a dual threat to their game and don’t rely strictly on pocket passing.
Add all that up and you have the spike in rushing yards per game.
1) a lot more pedestrian QB play these days (except for the few elite folks, and even some of them have mediocre passing stats so far this season - Wilson, Brady)
2) more QB running.
I think this is the reason, and along with that, offensive design given the QBs.
Passing teams have gotten stomped by elite D's. Elite run teams have gotten stump by teams who take it away.
To get to where you want you better be able to do both unless you get very lucky. How it tilts balance wise will always vary team by team based on that teams talent and the situation of the game.
Cleveland is without their dynamic, playmaking QB (Watson) and are pounding the ball instead with their excellent OL and RBs. Brissett is in few game-manager mode. They are 2nd in the NFL is yards per game.
Philly has the most versatile OL in the NFL. They are running the piss out of the ball AND they have a great running QB in hurts.
NYG is leading the league in yards per game. No one saw this coming. Barkley seems to have found in 2018 form and Kafka has taken full advantage of Jones's running ability.
Atlanta is sort of similar to NYG. They are 4th in yards per game and are in smash mouth mode with Patterson and a running threat in Mariota. Patterson was having a great year until he got hurt his past weekend against Cleveland.
Detroit is a very good running team with a very underrated OL and one of the best duos of RBs in the NFL in Swift and Williams.
Baltimore is of course back in the mix with a healthier stable of RBs and the best running QB in the NFL. So, they are making a big impact on running yardage.
Chicago, as we saw, are completely inept at throwing the ball. They have the worst pass protecting OL in football and their WRs are the definition of mediocre. But they have a stable of good RBs and Fields is a great runner.
And then you have the usual suspects with good OLs and RBs: Green Bay, 9ers, Chiefs and Pats.
Let's see where this finishes up, but the DCs in this league are very bright and they will adjust.
Interesting point. The rushing yards stat originally quoted doesn't necessarily mean that rushing yards as a % of total yards is up. (Could just be a sign of poor defense all around.)
Some teams that don’t have the QB have the receivers .
Coordinators have now accepted the college concept that QBs can run with it. Run successfully . And stay healthy .
1) a lot more pedestrian QB play these days (except for the few elite folks, and even some of them have mediocre passing stats so far this season - Wilson, Brady)
2) more QB running.
I agree with both of these as reasons why
Quite a meaningful difference.
Are we sure running backs are just learning to stretch out a bit more, on average, when they fall down?
its his number, but doubled to account for the 2 teams in the game, matching what's in the OP. Something weird about the Boston Globe's data unless they completely misprinted what they are trying to convey.
Plus QB runs are used way more then in the past.
DC's are very smart and will adjust? What are OC's? Stupid. They can adjust as well. Which is why you always want to do both well.
Yep
Running controls the clock, wears down your opponent and keeps you defense off the field
Someone looked at all the regular season NFL games 2002–19 (the 8 division / 32 team era) which is 32 * 16 * 18 = 4604 games.. 4598 of these games had a winner, and there were six ties. Of the 4598 games that had a winner:
the team with more rushing attempts won 3589
the team with more rushing yards won 3261
The team with more TOP won 293
The team with more passing yards won 700 less games than more rushing
This was overwhelming - 78% wins if you have more rushing attempts and 71% with more rushing yards
DC's are very smart and will adjust? What are OC's? Stupid. They can adjust as well. Which is why you always want to do both well.
Do you think Cleveland spent $250M (nearly fully guaranteed) on Watson to not fully utilize his passing abilities?
I wasn't suggesting OCs are "stupid". Just making the point that DCs will evaluate these early trends and adjust and make teams try to beat them in other ways.
The OP covers 2 teams combined avg rushing yards.
I use the Pro Football Reference site which I think has decent quality as to their stats. Globe is different by a bit.
Nevertheless, the year over year change seems immaterial. At least in my view after 4 games.
Rushing yards up by 1.5
Passing attempts: up by .1
Passing yards: down by .3
In 2020 rushing yards were 2.2 higher than now. So this is not some long term high
Rushing yards up by 1.5
Passing attempts: up by .1
Passing yards: down by .3
In 2020 rushing yards were 2.2 higher than now. So this is not some long term high
What I figured.
For all the glitz and glamour of Mahomes, he’s still fundamentally sloppy at times (which is why evals were all over the place on him because he may have had the sloppiest feet of a prospect since Darnold) and it’s tough to be that consistent with the ball unless your fundamentals are sound. The best way to beat this now is run game because defenses have gotten lighter and faster and make sure your OL don’t hold even if they get beat (which can be coached and they won’t get the QB killed)
But none of this will stop some people from drawing conclusions from a misleading (at best) headline
Quote:
why would Cleveland change its approach with Watson? Watson can just make more plays when its needed but I doubt they change things dramatically unless the situation mandates it. It also helps out their D which is not upper tier.
DC's are very smart and will adjust? What are OC's? Stupid. They can adjust as well. Which is why you always want to do both well.
Do you think Cleveland spent $250M (nearly fully guaranteed) on Watson to not fully utilize his passing abilities?
I wasn't suggesting OCs are "stupid". Just making the point that DCs will evaluate these early trends and adjust and make teams try to beat them in other ways.
You can talk about adjusting all day long, but what you can’t adjust on fly is rosters and the league has trended smaller and faster on defense to play shell.
They paid Watson because they felt Baker was holding them back and wasn’t good enough to win a SB with a very good roster and he was the best available option. Time will tell of it was right move because they have a pretty small window and it’s gonna be hard to expect results this year from a guy that hasn’t played in ages.
Link - ( New Window )
5 lowest attempts per game since rushing attempts became a statistic.
Quite a meaningful difference.
Are we sure running backs are just learning to stretch out a bit more, on average, when they fall down?
Haha. Classic...
And I am sure this 1.5 yard per game anomaly will correct itself as starting RBs get dinged up more and more as the season goes along too.
Quote:
I didn't check it but your rushing per game #'s don't match what Eric stated in the OP
The OP covers 2 teams combined avg rushing yards.
I use the Pro Football Reference site which I think has decent quality as to their stats. Globe is different by a bit.
Nevertheless, the year over year change seems immaterial. At least in my view after 4 games.
Eric never insinuated that the trend just started THIS season so I’m not sure what your point is about last season? It’s completely irrelevant
You can talk about adjusting all day long, but what you can’t adjust on fly is rosters and the league has trended smaller and faster on defense to play shell.
They paid Watson because they felt Baker was holding them back and wasn’t good enough to win a SB with a very good roster and he was the best available option. Time will tell of it was right move because they have a pretty small window and it’s gonna be hard to expect results this year from a guy that hasn’t played in ages.
I've heard analysts like Colinsworth make the point about more teams going two high safeties/shell to reduce big plays. At least that's what he said he's seen in the difference between the state of play this year versus last. Nothing groundbreaking there...
But I'm not sure I'm buying the smaller defenders theory yet, although I do think the linebacker position has gotten smaller because you need the speed to cover sideline to sideline in the short-medium passing game.
IMV, the gap eaters up front are as big as ever. And if they do their job and take away the gaps, the smaller LBs should be able to knife through and around to stop the run. So, the earth movers help offset the size change in LBs.
I wonder if more offensive teams are changing their approach to the running game. I'd like to see some intel on that. It's a copycat league and maybe - and this is just guessing - teams are using more running schemes like Shanahan employs.
Growing up in the 60s, the offense formations were very few (highly standarized -- split T) and the pre-snap movement was practically non-existent.
I'm sure truebluelarry can speak alot about the razzmatazz offenses of the '30s and '40s which I think has been replicated in some ways in today's offenses!
The "increase" in rushing though is not really true, as noted in my link.
Quote:
In comment 15846192 bw in dc said:
You can talk about adjusting all day long, but what you can’t adjust on fly is rosters and the league has trended smaller and faster on defense to play shell.
They paid Watson because they felt Baker was holding them back and wasn’t good enough to win a SB with a very good roster and he was the best available option. Time will tell of it was right move because they have a pretty small window and it’s gonna be hard to expect results this year from a guy that hasn’t played in ages.
I've heard analysts like Colinsworth make the point about more teams going two high safeties/shell to reduce big plays. At least that's what he said he's seen in the difference between the state of play this year versus last. Nothing groundbreaking there...
I wonder if more offensive teams are changing their approach to the running game. I'd like to see some intel on that. It's a copycat league and maybe - and this is just guessing - teams are using more running schemes like Shanahan employs.
Some defensive trends through week 3 of 2022:
NFL Teams are employing coverages with different frequency in 2022, including putting less emphasis on man schemes. Rates of Cover-1 man have dropped to 19.8% from a four-year average of 26.5%. Schemes with multiple deep safeties have jumped, including Cover-2 zone (up to 13.8% usage in 2022 from a four-year average of 11.2%) and Quarters (up to 14.7% usage in 2022 from a four-year average of 11.4%).
Defenses are running Cover-0 with no deep safeties at a slightly higher frequency of 3.7% of plays, versus four-year average of 2.7%. And they’re doing it more effectively — the average expected points added per play against Cover-0 is -0.21 in 2022, about 0.40 points per play — and 80 net points added per season — lower than the four-year average. Cover-0 is a high-risk, high-reward style of play that has been worth the risk for defenses so far in 2022.
Defenses have blitzed on 38.5% of plays in 2022, a big jump over the average of 27.4% over the previous four seasons.
There was blog posted today on SBNation on how teams have adapted their run game approach schematically recently, linked below.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 15846192 bw in dc said:
You can talk about adjusting all day long, but what you can’t adjust on fly is rosters and the league has trended smaller and faster on defense to play shell.
They paid Watson because they felt Baker was holding them back and wasn’t good enough to win a SB with a very good roster and he was the best available option. Time will tell of it was right move because they have a pretty small window and it’s gonna be hard to expect results this year from a guy that hasn’t played in ages.
I've heard analysts like Colinsworth make the point about more teams going two high safeties/shell to reduce big plays. At least that's what he said he's seen in the difference between the state of play this year versus last. Nothing groundbreaking there...
But I'm not sure I'm buying the smaller defenders theory yet, although I do think the linebacker position has gotten smaller because you need the speed to cover sideline to sideline in the short-medium passing game.
IMV, the gap eaters up front are as big as ever. And if they do their job and take away the gaps, the smaller LBs should be able to knife through and around to stop the run. So, the earth movers help offset the size change in LBs.
I wonder if more offensive teams are changing their approach to the running game. I'd like to see some intel on that. It's a copycat league and maybe - and this is just guessing - teams are using more running schemes like Shanahan employs.
The trend is definitely towards smaller interior guys who can rush. Maybe you used to have one of those guys used to come off the bench, not its the opposite where teams carry maybe one dude that eats gaps. It's the best way to stymie the quick passing game. It's also why guards are starting to get paid because smaller interior guys against guys that can't pass pro is blowing up gameplans (as we've seen here)
NFL Teams are employing coverages with different frequency in 2022, including putting less emphasis on man schemes. Rates of Cover-1 man have dropped to 19.8% from a four-year average of 26.5%. Schemes with multiple deep safeties have jumped, including Cover-2 zone (up to 13.8% usage in 2022 from a four-year average of 11.2%) and Quarters (up to 14.7% usage in 2022 from a four-year average of 11.4%).
Defenses are running Cover-0 with no deep safeties at a slightly higher frequency of 3.7% of plays, versus four-year average of 2.7%. And they’re doing it more effectively — the average expected points added per play against Cover-0 is -0.21 in 2022, about 0.40 points per play — and 80 net points added per season — lower than the four-year average. Cover-0 is a high-risk, high-reward style of play that has been worth the risk for defenses so far in 2022.
Defenses have blitzed on 38.5% of plays in 2022, a big jump over the average of 27.4% over the previous four seasons.
There was blog posted today on SBNation on how teams have adapted their run game approach schematically recently, linked below. Link - ( New Window )
Excellent info. Thanks for sharing. The cover-0 stats are very interesting.
Football is such a complicated game where match-ups dictate so much of the strategy. Outside of the division, teams are playing 8+ new teams every year, so that alone could impact some of these early trends.
Realizing that teams are preparing for them to run outside zone a whole lot, we’re beginning to see a lot more gap scheme runs. These are runs like power and counter, which is slowly beginning to come back into the league. If we use 2021 again as a reference point, through four games last season only one team ran gap scheme plays 30 or more times: the Cleveland Browns. This year, the Lions have joined them, and it’s really interesting to see how they do it against five man fronts.
Gap schemes go like this: if he’s in my gap, I block the gap down to that side. Normally this is followed by a guard or tackle pulling to the side where the down-blocks are happening. How this beats the 5 man front is with when there’s a tight end in the game, there’s six blockers accounting for six people in the box. Instead of blocking an area or zone, they’re blocking whoever is in their gap. The Lions are running this to perfection behind an awesome offensive line that certifiably hauls ass up front, and taking advantage of light boxes, and even lighter players.
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In comment 15846146 LG in NYC said:
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I didn't check it but your rushing per game #'s don't match what Eric stated in the OP
The OP covers 2 teams combined avg rushing yards.
I use the Pro Football Reference site which I think has decent quality as to their stats. Globe is different by a bit.
Nevertheless, the year over year change seems immaterial. At least in my view after 4 games.
Eric never insinuated that the trend just started THIS season so I’m not sure what your point is about last season? It’s completely irrelevant
Do you actually think before you post or do you just like to find somebody different to bitch at every day?
There was no intent to shame Eric, only to suggest the stats show there really isn't a story here. The OP title, which I assume was taken from a flawed Boston Globe article, says Turn Back the Clock for a reason. It doesn't say Turn Back the Clock but do it slowly to match this long-term trend in rushing.
It was intending to suggest this is a recent material change. And it really isn't.
Which actually makes you completely irrelevant.
A really great listen