If he keeps playing this way (no regression) what kind of deal would he be offered by the Giants? Do you think they will over pay by alot?
He is playing great but he is no Josh Allen/Mahomes type qb so I would not offer 300 mil. He is just not worth that to me.
The 5-1 record isn't make believe but I would argue the manner by which it has been accomplished is also not a sustainable approach to winning in the NFL. Jones has been part & parcel in those wins but falls short of giving me confidence he has earned a contract approaching $30M AAV.
I think somewhere around an $18M-$20M AAV deal is his market (realizing not many exist in that space) but can't get comfortable with much more than that. I can't wrap my head around the idea that other QBs couldn't have accomplished what he has in these first 6 games, and that younger prospects out there aren't a better investment for the next several years either.
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to tag him will about 30m. So if he continues to play like a slightly above average starter 140m with 80m guaranteed for 4yrs would be a good deal.
Would rather tag him than give out 35apy
The problem with tagging him is his full salary counts against the cap. Signing him at 35m/yr vs tag of 30m year 1 and higher year 2 offers way more cap flexibility. If he doesn’t pan out it will cost dead money in year 3.
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Universe. Jones is at a 6.4 yards per pass attempt and is on target to throw 15 TDs this season.
Don't stop there. He's also on track for 12 come-from-behind wins.
All himself?...
How would it be structured? Guaranteed money?
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I’d offer 4 years and 100M. He’d probably take it based on all things considered.
How would it be structured? Guaranteed money?
Not sure about that really, I guess I was just saying I think that 25M annualized would be a bargain for the next 4 years if we were to do it now.
What a contradictory statement. You say they made the right decision then you say they should have given him the 5th year option? Can't have it both ways
(although with Jones reducing his turnovers, a more sophisticated metric would show some improvement.)
That is not a 2022 starting QB level. I don’t care what he’s been doing in recent 4th quarters.
I think what is happening here is that Jones is building a rep as a solid high level game manager who makes few turnovers. Stand my prediction that he will have a very lucrative career as a backup QB. Prob earn $70-100mm over his career. Nothing to be ashamed of.
I had missed that; agreed - that's the perfect summary and should be stickied to all these discussions.
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Well put.
I had missed that; agreed - that's the perfect summary and should be stickied to all these discussions.
So which is it IYO?
YOA is dependent on your skill guy excelling at YAC. We have NONE of them. Our offense is based on moving the chains and controlling the clock. We rarely take deep shots. It’s not a stat we are going to excel in. I showed over a 10 year period that Brady, Wilson, and Rodgers all fell out of the top 10 of a cumulative YPA. It should be used as a reference only. Not means to determine how good a QB is.
YOA is dependent on your skill guy excelling at YAC. We have NONE of them. Our offense is based on moving the chains and controlling the clock. We rarely take deep shots. It’s not a stat we are going to excel in. I showed over a 10 year period that Brady, Wilson, and Rodgers all fell out of the top 10 of a cumulative YPA. It should be used as a reference only. Not means to determine how good a QB is.
No stat is perfect, but YPA is a very reliable indicator of success.
I imagine if Jones was a consistently performing well in the YPA, you would be citing it as an example of Jones's ability.
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When these same BBIers join the thread
“DJ has been exposed, we need a new QB next year”
Here's what we know:
- The Giants are 5-1
- The Giants are running a conservative offense
- DJ's play within that conservative offense has contributed to the Giants being 5-1
That's it. That's all we know with any certainty about the Giants (on the offensive side of the ball) and DJ.
We don't know if DJ is being limited by the offense being conservative or if BD/MK's view of DJ is one of the reasons for the offense being conservative.
My opinion, while making no assumptions about how BD/MK view DJ, is that one of those two things is a fundamental insight that we, as fans, can't answer with certainty, but only one can be true.
If the Giants feel as though DJ has cemented himself as QB1 and just needs more tools to succeed, he's going to get a contract that will have an AAV of at least $25M, and probably closer to $30M (or more).
If the Giants feel as though they have been able to patch together an offense in spite of DJ's limitations, they'll move on, and even if they go with a veteran placeholder to guide a rookie, it will be one who BD/MK feel aligns with the offense they want to run (again, this scenario is the version where the Giants are viewing DJ as one of the limitations rather than a victim of his surroundings) rather than continue to run an alternate version of the offense while they train up a rookie in the preferred offensive style.
So it's one or the other, IMO: either DJ fits what they want to do and is worth committing to, and that will command a contract of more than $25M/yr; or DJ limits what they want to do and in that case, there isn't enough of a bargain available to make it worthwhile to run a watered-down version of the offense with DJ filling the role of the veteran placeholder (because they could just remain watered-down with the rookie getting reps if that's the intent).
I have never seen the short-term DJ-as-placeholder scenarios to be realistic. It's a halfway-pregnant suggestion. Either the Giants see DJ as the answer, and will pay him accordingly, or they see him as an obstacle, and they'll move on. Just my POV on it.
this is a good post but imo the 1 angle you are missing is this, if Jones ends up in the category you describe in the bold which i agree is currently tbd, he has very little incentive to settle for a multi-year deal beyond 2 years if it's not well above tag value because QB prices are escalating rapidly.
there are currently 9 qbs making 40m+ and half of them only recently signed those deals, the most recent being Kyler at 46m per year.
As soon as this offseason Lamar is likely to be #10 for even more than that, Jalen Hurts could be #11, and Burrow/Herbert become extension eligible this offseason and will likely become #12/#13. i would think both will get more than kyler got in both years and $. Tua also becomes extension eligible but i'd guess they wait on him unless he has a big 2nd half.
so the minute jones plays well enough in the giants or any other team in the league to be worth the similar range of the tag value you describe, he loses a lot of incentive to take any deal at or around that AAV because the upside beyond has become so enormous. he will probably need to play a year on the tag to get those kinds of offers and in the nyg case i think both sides would be comfortable with that. he gets a year to show what he's worth and whatever team he's on gets to confirm it's not just 1 outlier year.
https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback - ( New Window )
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In comment 15868244 cosmicj said:
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Well put.
I had missed that; agreed - that's the perfect summary and should be stickied to all these discussions.
So which is it IYO?
I think the coaches don't trust him and he won't be back. That's not based on my opinion of Jones as a player, it's based on these actions from the Giants:
- Didn't pick up his option
- Signed Taylor to two year contract
- Pursued Trubisky heavily
- Scouted the top college QBs in person immediately when the season started
- There's an asshat rumor from a reputable poster that neither Schoen nor Daboll think Jones is good
- Giants are 29th in the league in passes attempted despite trailing by double digits in the second halves of 4 of their 6 games
Every single one of those things is a fact, not an opinion. On their own each might not mean much, but together...that doesn't scream second contact to me.
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In comment 15868291 Go Terps said:
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In comment 15868244 cosmicj said:
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Well put.
I had missed that; agreed - that's the perfect summary and should be stickied to all these discussions.
So which is it IYO?
I think the coaches don't trust him and he won't be back. That's not based on my opinion of Jones as a player, it's based on these actions from the Giants:
- Didn't pick up his option
- Signed Taylor to two year contract
- Pursued Trubisky heavily
- Scouted the top college QBs in person immediately when the season started
- There's an asshat rumor from a reputable poster that neither Schoen nor Daboll think Jones is good
- Giants are 29th in the league in passes attempted despite trailing by double digits in the second halves of 4 of their 6 games
Every single one of those things is a fact, not an opinion. On their own each might not mean much, but together...that doesn't scream second contact to me.
Even with the information of the season we're having. You don't think that changes their minds at all?
That's not what's happening though. How much that's because of Jones, the skill players, the OL...none of us knows. Whatever the reason, we have not seen Jones perform like a $30M player. Can't pay him on spec.
Can you please repost it because I havent seen this, and Im sure many others havent seen it
I am not doubting it exists, just asking you to post it
Link - ( New Window )
Thank you
That's not what's happening though. How much that's because of Jones, the skill players, the OL...none of us knows. Whatever the reason, we have not seen Jones perform like a $30M player. Can't pay him on spec.
Fair enough. Thanks.
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As a means of measuring stick. Jimmy G was second in the NFL last year and he sucks donkey balls.
YOA is dependent on your skill guy excelling at YAC. We have NONE of them. Our offense is based on moving the chains and controlling the clock. We rarely take deep shots. It’s not a stat we are going to excel in. I showed over a 10 year period that Brady, Wilson, and Rodgers all fell out of the top 10 of a cumulative YPA. It should be used as a reference only. Not means to determine how good a QB is.
No stat is perfect, but YPA is a very reliable indicator of success.
I imagine if Jones was a consistently performing well in the YPA, you would be citing it as an example of Jones's ability.
Actually - no I wouldn’t. I have never use stats to rate or Jusge players cause there’s way too many variables.
And again if a stat rates Wilson, Brady, and Rodgers outside the top 10 over a 10 year period… I don’t take as much value in it. Again - it’s very YAC dependent. And if you don’t have YAC capabilities like we don’t - why use it?
What NFL team is just a Daniel Jones away from competing for a Super Bowl?
That's really the only way to look at this. There isn't going to be a market for him - if he stays with the Giants then it will be on a very modest contract.
What NFL team is just a Daniel Jones away from competing for a Super Bowl?
That's really the only way to look at this. There isn't going to be a market for him - if he stays with the Giants then it will be on a very modest contract.
This is how I would play it, too. Let Team Jones test the market. If another team is willing to pay Jones = or > than the TT or FT tag, let them have his services.
I know a lot of posters are on cloud nine with Jones's play the last two weeks, and that's fine. He has played better. But let's be honest. We're still not watching Josh Allen or Justin Herbert here. Jones is not doing anything special. He's not some unique talent.
He is dispensable and won't be that hard to replace.
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$20-$25mil in 2023, then what team will?
What NFL team is just a Daniel Jones away from competing for a Super Bowl?
That's really the only way to look at this. There isn't going to be a market for him - if he stays with the Giants then it will be on a very modest contract.
This is how I would play it, too. Let Team Jones test the market. If another team is willing to pay Jones = or > than the TT or FT tag, let them have his services.
I know a lot of posters are on cloud nine with Jones's play the last two weeks, and that's fine. He has played better. But let's be honest. We're still not watching Josh Allen or Justin Herbert here. Jones is not doing anything special. He's not some unique talent.
He is dispensable and won't be that hard to replace.
Two things can be true at the same time. Jones can both be a factor in this team's good start and also not be an elite or franchise QB. The bottom line is you have to believe he will continue to be the reason this teams wins on a consistent basis.
Two things can be true at the same time. Jones can both be a factor in this team's good start and also not be an elite or franchise QB. The bottom line is you have to believe he will continue to be the reason this teams wins on a consistent basis.
Agreed. Right now, Jones is very functional in a well-conceived offense that fits his skill set. Compound that with a defense really hitting their stride and there is your formula for success early in 2022.
I heard from a very well-connected NFL writer that both the coach and GM think that DJ is not good. Yes, this is asshat info, and yes, I believe it.
there are several coming off rookie contracts on deck to join them in the next 12 months led by Lamar, Hurts, Burrow, Herbert. What happens if Jones ends up helping lead his team further into the playoffs than Hurts does? Or ends the season with more passing TDs despite inferior receivers (it's currently 5 to 6)?
wentz, goff, and ryan make $30m or more. you taking any of them over Jones right now? Or Tannehill at 29.5m even though he signed his deal 2 years ago?
would anyone rather pay Baker $15m or Winston $14m?
having to tag jones isn't ideal but its the best of not great options given the circumstances (new staff, still hasn't played well enough to extend, but has played well enough to lead a competitive team). and as KDavies pointed out on the other thread it doesn't preclude them from drafting his replacement.
having to tag jones isn't ideal but its the best of not great options given the circumstances (new staff, still hasn't played well enough to extend, but has played well enough to lead a competitive team). and as KDavies pointed out on the other thread it doesn't preclude them from drafting his replacement.
If we let Jones test the market and we lose him, it is really a set-back for the team? What special skills or ability would be losing?
I agree that he's making the offense work right now. But I don't view the success as testimony to Jones. I view it as a testimony to the coaching staff and figuring out how to maximize what Jones has...
Yes. Neither is the answer, but it's the cheaper wrong answer than Jones at $30m.
The right answer is to draft someone and pair him with Taylor.
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having to tag jones isn't ideal but its the best of not great options given the circumstances (new staff, still hasn't played well enough to extend, but has played well enough to lead a competitive team). and as KDavies pointed out on the other thread it doesn't preclude them from drafting his replacement.
If we let Jones test the market and we lose him, it is really a set-back for the team? What special skills or ability would be losing?
I agree that he's making the offense work right now. But I don't view the success as testimony to Jones. I view it as a testimony to the coaching staff and figuring out how to maximize what Jones has...
At the same time, the same group (myself included) also recognizes Jones is still not a top 10 or probably not a top 15 QB, which is a reasonable expectation based on his draft pick. So, it comes down to whether you want to grossly overpay for what he is now, thinking that gamble pays off and he is elite next year. Personally, I think he will continue to improve, but not to elite level.
Another way to look at it is, if this team improves the OL and WR and can maintain a running game, do you think Jones further elevates the team or does he then potentially become a guy holding back a good team. It's a tough call because he is helping an inferior team play much better, which he hadn't done with any consistency prior. But, can he make them even better or play at a championship level?
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having to tag jones isn't ideal but its the best of not great options given the circumstances (new staff, still hasn't played well enough to extend, but has played well enough to lead a competitive team). and as KDavies pointed out on the other thread it doesn't preclude them from drafting his replacement.
If we let Jones test the market and we lose him, it is really a set-back for the team? What special skills or ability would be losing?
I agree that he's making the offense work right now. But I don't view the success as testimony to Jones. I view it as a testimony to the coaching staff and figuring out how to maximize what Jones has...
wrong question. the right question is what is this mythical better use of $31m that can't already be added with the 30m+ they would project to have available for UFA while retaining their QB on the tag?
why do they need $60m for UFA instead of $30m? When has anything good ever come out of spending that kind of $ in FA? tag on Jones = zero dead money. $31m spent in UFA is a guarantee of escalating costs down the line that will eat into the 2024 cap with dead money down the line right as thomas, lawrence, mckinney, etc need extensions. Brilliant.
before anyone replies with the phrase "carry over" please just save me the time and dont. off what will hopefully be the second winning season in a decade they aren't going to try to save money on the cap instead of putting money on the field. only 1 team is more than 10m under the cap right now and its the browns because of watson. purposefully saving money under the cap is not something that's done.
Yes. Neither is the answer, but it's the cheaper wrong answer than Jones at $30m.
The right answer is to draft someone and pair him with Taylor.
Not if the QBs coming out arent that good, like this year. You wanted to do that this year with crappy QBs
So is it ok to definitively judge Jones based on four years of poor production, given that you can judge these guys in a fraction of the time?
Yeah, those game winning drives from inside the redzone!
If this team signs Jones for $30 million...they'll have to cut talent elsewhere. Jones without a great D or running game will be average, at best.
Get a rookie, at a bargain, and keep the REAL reason we're winning together.
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having to tag jones isn't ideal but its the best of not great options given the circumstances (new staff, still hasn't played well enough to extend, but has played well enough to lead a competitive team). and as KDavies pointed out on the other thread it doesn't preclude them from drafting his replacement.
If we let Jones test the market and we lose him, it is really a set-back for the team? What special skills or ability would be losing?
I agree that he's making the offense work right now. But I don't view the success as testimony to Jones. I view it as a testimony to the coaching staff and figuring out how to maximize what Jones has...
Wrong! This team is winning because of Barkley and the defense. Paying Jones and Saquon will take away talent from the Giants ability to improve the OLine and defense....and the team gets worse. No thanks! Paying an average QB too much money isn't the answer.
So is it ok to definitively judge Jones based on four years of poor production, given that you can judge these guys in a fraction of the time?
We've barely seen them because none of them are good, which is why
Do you know what the odds are of these picks panning out? Almost zero
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In comment 15868325 GNewGiants said:
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As a means of measuring stick. Jimmy G was second in the NFL last year and he sucks donkey balls.
YOA is dependent on your skill guy excelling at YAC. We have NONE of them. Our offense is based on moving the chains and controlling the clock. We rarely take deep shots. It’s not a stat we are going to excel in. I showed over a 10 year period that Brady, Wilson, and Rodgers all fell out of the top 10 of a cumulative YPA. It should be used as a reference only. Not means to determine how good a QB is.
No stat is perfect, but YPA is a very reliable indicator of success.
I imagine if Jones was a consistently performing well in the YPA, you would be citing it as an example of Jones's ability.
Actually - no I wouldn’t. I have never use stats to rate or Jusge players cause there’s way too many variables.
And again if a stat rates Wilson, Brady, and Rodgers outside the top 10 over a 10 year period… I don’t take as much value in it. Again - it’s very YAC dependent. And if you don’t have YAC capabilities like we don’t - why use it?
Conceptually I agree with you but 6.4 YPA?
About YAC, a lot of that is on the QB, not the receiver. I think you know that. Why are the Giants bad at YAC? Because Jones is chronically late getting the ball to the receiver. His timing is bad.
Case on point: Sundays TD pass to Bellinger. Bellinger got open and about a full second later the ball arrives. That’s too long. He has to get open and bam the ball is there.
Just one play but it’s repeated constantly. That’s why we don’t have YAC.
Do you know what the odds are of these picks panning out? Almost zero
Back to this silliness?
When you start talking about the likelihood of draft picks, it's like Teddy KGB putting his Oreo back in the tray.
Daniel Jones is our only option be sheer default.
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In comment 15868358 bw in dc said:
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In comment 15868325 GNewGiants said:
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As a means of measuring stick. Jimmy G was second in the NFL last year and he sucks donkey balls.
YOA is dependent on your skill guy excelling at YAC. We have NONE of them. Our offense is based on moving the chains and controlling the clock. We rarely take deep shots. It’s not a stat we are going to excel in. I showed over a 10 year period that Brady, Wilson, and Rodgers all fell out of the top 10 of a cumulative YPA. It should be used as a reference only. Not means to determine how good a QB is.
No stat is perfect, but YPA is a very reliable indicator of success.
I imagine if Jones was a consistently performing well in the YPA, you would be citing it as an example of Jones's ability.
Actually - no I wouldn’t. I have never use stats to rate or Jusge players cause there’s way too many variables.
And again if a stat rates Wilson, Brady, and Rodgers outside the top 10 over a 10 year period… I don’t take as much value in it. Again - it’s very YAC dependent. And if you don’t have YAC capabilities like we don’t - why use it?
Conceptually I agree with you but 6.4 YPA?
About YAC, a lot of that is on the QB, not the receiver. I think you know that. Why are the Giants bad at YAC? Because Jones is chronically late getting the ball to the receiver. His timing is bad.
Case on point: Sundays TD pass to Bellinger. Bellinger got open and about a full second later the ball arrives. That’s too long. He has to get open and bam the ball is there.
Just one play but it’s repeated constantly. That’s why we don’t have YAC.
You may be right on Jones lateness… but do you really believe that Slayton, sills, James, and Bellinger would be YAC monsters for other QBs. They struggle to get open yet alone run away. I mean if we had Toney, SS, and a healthy Golladay - 6.4 wouldn’t be good enough. But we have to consider our WRs weren’t even suppose to make the team this year yet alone play the majority of the snaps.
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And everything else was third round or later
Do you know what the odds are of these picks panning out? Almost zero
Back to this silliness?
When you start talking about the likelihood of draft picks, it's like Teddy KGB putting his Oreo back in the tray.
LOL