taking off from the chubb thread and christian's thread about love a few days ago, here are some comps for extensions for the various players we know schoen has mentioned having conversations with over the next several days and in most cases even saying he wants back. i tried to cherry pick deals that were as recent as possible and similar ages/playing time thresholds such that they were in similar positions approaching the end of their rookie deals as the players below. Also note that each cluster has a combination of early extensions and guys who got closer to UFA (some UFA deals in there too).
signing early extensions probably won't change the top line numbers of what these players are worth - they will get FMV in terms of AAV and guarantees, what signing early should do however is allow the nyg to dictate favorable structures with most of the guarantees in the next couple years such that any 3rd/4th years are easily cuttable/renegotiable.
any potential extensions could for example save the nyg 500k-1m the rest of this year to allow them to not have to restructure a deal that will turn into dead money like golladay.
(header for all charts below)
lawrence - current cap hit 4.2m, next year 12.4m, OTC current performance valuation = 15.2m, so right now id take a slight under on these deals
love - current cap hit 2.5m, ufa in march, otc current performance valuation = 5m, i think these are good comps for aav but he'll get more gtd$
barkley - current cap hit 7.2m, ufa in march, tag value = 12m, otc current performance valuation = 13.7m, id guess a slight over on these deals to 13m AAV
bonus extension possibility - nick gates. comps don't really matter because his situation is unique but I think it would make a lot of sense to give the guy 2-3m guaranteed in return for adding a team friendly 2023 where he can hopefully return to full form and reclaim a starting role.
The RB numbers are not that bad either, but I could very well see them look to the draft for a 2nd rounder that would be 1/12 the cost. But seems that Schoen is committed to Barkley.
Actually seems like big numbers for NTs and Dex may be the most important of the three players.
The RB numbers are not that bad either, but I could very well see them look to the draft for a 2nd rounder that would be 1/12 the cost. But seems that Schoen is committed to Barkley.
Actually seems like big numbers for NTs and Dex may be the most important of the three players.
there are some higher safeties that maybe love has a claim to be worth more, but based on the body of work i don't see it being realistic for him because this is his first year as a full time starter. so he may be someone who decides to play out the season and not extend now.
here's the higher end comp range but these guys were multiple season starters and in some cases pro bowlers so i just dont think there's a realistic path to getting this kind of deal for love. i think a fair deal for him right now is at a lower AAV but almost as much guaranteed $ (15-20m).
OBJ (2014 draft)
JPP (2010 draft)
Kiwi (2006 draft)
Thomas could match that total when he becomes extension eligible in the offseason, and if Jones gets extended in the next couple years he could be the one to put this decade ahead before it's halfway over.
i left jones off the list because i dont think they are going to extend him in season and it's a near foregone conclusion he will get the tag unless something dramatically different happens in the next 9 games.
I don't think you can use multiple tags, you get 1 per year regardless of which it is. Someone correct me if I wrong though. And if that's the case I think Barkley gets tagged and either Jones is our guy (new longterm deal) or not (FA).
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I think they tag Barkley on the franchise, and Jones on the transition
I don't think you can use multiple tags, you get 1 per year regardless of which it is. Someone correct me if I wrong though. And if that's the case I think Barkley gets tagged and either Jones is our guy (new longterm deal) or not (FA).
Correct. Only one player - whether the TT or FT.
we haven't really seen what schoen's contract structure preferences are yet, but my best guess is they are pretty flat without balloon years in the future because that's what's most responsible. so if all got signed here's the change in their price tags with a guess at cap hits:
Barkley
7m this year, 12m if tagged, projected '23 cap # on extension --> 10m
Lawrence
4m this year, 12.4m next year, projected '23 cap # on extension --> 13m
Love
2.5m this year, FA next year, projected '23 cap # on extension --> 6m
figure a gates extension puts him on a 2-3m cap # next year
so figure about 30-35m from next years cap if they were to extend all 3, but 12m of that had already been allocated to Lawrence (25m if you count barkley back on tag).
so if they executed all the deals their current raw cap room would go from 61m to about 40m (that's before any other moves like cutting golladay, tagging jones, restructuring leo or adoree etc).
so the early extensions keep the players in the fold longer but not at dramatic increases even though the top line numbers of the extensions may sound dramatic.
i think barkley is most likely and then they will check in with love/lawrence with either being kind of 50/50 to get done.
gates would be good business too so while i think 3 would make a lot of sense i'll take the under and guess they do barkley plus 1 of the defensive guys.
gates may or may not be one of their guys, i dont know if we know yet and they may want to find out since he only just returned. it's conceivable right now they'd prefer to extend felciano since he's one of their guys, which would make it less likely gates ends up back here. i think it makes more sense to extend gates though because he's a better younger player. at 31 felciano may not be considered more than a good 6th OL in UFA next offseason.
OBJ (2014 draft)
JPP (2010 draft)
Kiwi (2006 draft)
Thomas could match that total when he becomes extension eligible in the offseason, and if Jones gets extended in the next couple years he could be the one to put this decade ahead before it's halfway over.
i left jones off the list because i dont think they are going to extend him in season and it's a near foregone conclusion he will get the tag unless something dramatically different happens in the next 9 games.
Foregone conclusion on tagging Jones? Please list the QBs, with similar career numbers to Jones, who make $30 million a year?
I'd bet, that unless DJ plays out of his mind (15 total TDs) in the next 9 games, and looks like a franchise QB, he'll be given luggage tags and a plane ticket.
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they will be 2 first round picks extended 2 years into the decade which will almost match the total number of first rounders extended in the full decade 2010-2020:
OBJ (2014 draft)
JPP (2010 draft)
Kiwi (2006 draft)
Thomas could match that total when he becomes extension eligible in the offseason, and if Jones gets extended in the next couple years he could be the one to put this decade ahead before it's halfway over.
i left jones off the list because i dont think they are going to extend him in season and it's a near foregone conclusion he will get the tag unless something dramatically different happens in the next 9 games.
Foregone conclusion on tagging Jones? Please list the QBs, with similar career numbers to Jones, who make $30 million a year?
I'd bet, that unless DJ plays out of his mind (15 total TDs) in the next 9 games, and looks like a franchise QB, he'll be given luggage tags and a plane ticket.
ok chief.
wentz has been traded for 2nd round picks each of the last 2 offseasons at around a 30m cap hit,
tannehill signed for 29.5m 2 years ago,
smith topped out at 23.5m per year before he retired a couple years ago with $210m in career earnings.
if jones plays well enough to win 10+ games and goes to the playoffs they are not going to let him walk for nothing in march and turn the keys over to tyrod, who couldn't go 2 series without getting hurt (as has been the case for him since 2017). drafting a new QB is possible but if they do so it will likely be with jones on the tag whether it's to come back as starter 1 last year or get traded.
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I think they tag Barkley on the franchise, and Jones on the transition
I don't think you can use multiple tags, you get 1 per year regardless of which it is. Someone correct me if I wrong though. And if that's the case I think Barkley gets tagged and either Jones is our guy (new longterm deal) or not (FA).
Did not realize that. That's for the correction. In that case, if they want to be sure to keep Jones next year, they might best be served working on an extension ASAP with Barkley.
Will be interesting what they do with Jones. There really aren't too many better options, and I'm not sold on the QB class this year, particularly where the Giants will be drafting.
What I'd do is look to re-sign Jones. If Schoen/Daboll/etc. have a QB they love in the draft this year or next, no problem. Draft him. You could always later trade Jones if you are able to draft an upgrade. I'd hedge my bets. The downside of letting Jones go, and then investing premium pick(s) in a QB who then busts, is too immense.
What I'd do is look to re-sign Jones. If Schoen/Daboll/etc. have a QB they love in the draft this year or next, no problem. Draft him. You could always later trade Jones if you are able to draft an upgrade. I'd hedge my bets. The downside of letting Jones go, and then investing premium pick(s) in a QB who then busts, is too immense.
schoen sort of said something to that effect in one of his interviews - that they look to sign players at a value they believe in, and if they do that then down the road moving them should be possible because if they peg the value right they will have value elsewhere too.
the qb market is so volatile though i just dont see jones (or any similar aged qb like tua/hurts) signing for anything under 200m/40m per year if he continues to lead the team to wins. in less than 9 months there could be 10 QBs making 43m+ per year - tua and hurts possibly included.
that seems a very high bar for jones to clear this year, though if he knocks off the eagles and somehow wins the division or wins a big playoff game maybe? but even if he does that at that point the 31m tag is such a discount why not make him stand up another good year before committing 1/4 billion dollars? at that point the market wont likely be able to surge much farther because burrow/herbert/jackson/allen/mahomes are all probably extended.
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In comment 15896189 Eric on Li said:
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they will be 2 first round picks extended 2 years into the decade which will almost match the total number of first rounders extended in the full decade 2010-2020:
OBJ (2014 draft)
JPP (2010 draft)
Kiwi (2006 draft)
Thomas could match that total when he becomes extension eligible in the offseason, and if Jones gets extended in the next couple years he could be the one to put this decade ahead before it's halfway over.
i left jones off the list because i dont think they are going to extend him in season and it's a near foregone conclusion he will get the tag unless something dramatically different happens in the next 9 games.
Foregone conclusion on tagging Jones? Please list the QBs, with similar career numbers to Jones, who make $30 million a year?
I'd bet, that unless DJ plays out of his mind (15 total TDs) in the next 9 games, and looks like a franchise QB, he'll be given luggage tags and a plane ticket.
ok chief.
wentz has been traded for 2nd round picks each of the last 2 offseasons at around a 30m cap hit,
tannehill signed for 29.5m 2 years ago,
smith topped out at 23.5m per year before he retired a couple years ago with $210m in career earnings.
if jones plays well enough to win 10+ games and goes to the playoffs they are not going to let him walk for nothing in march and turn the keys over to tyrod, who couldn't go 2 series without getting hurt (as has been the case for him since 2017). drafting a new QB is possible but if they do so it will likely be with jones on the tag whether it's to come back as starter 1 last year or get traded.
So, he's worse than Tannehill and Wentz, two terrible contracts, and almost identical statisticly to Alex Smith? That's not a solid case for a big contract...it's actually the opposite.
Other teams use these same numbers. If the Giants transition tag Jones for $28 million, do you really think there's going to be a big trade market for him? Would you want Wentz or Tannehill (who are statically better) on this roster next year for the $28 million transition tag (or $32 million, and probably going up when Lamar signs, on the franchise tag), if nobody trades for DJ? I don't?
Even this year, Jones has 1 less TD than Wentz, and Wentz hasn't played in 2 weeks? We're not winning because Jones is a great QB, we're winning because DJ isn't turning the ball over, and because of our running game and defense. He's playing better...but he's a game manager at this level of production.
Let Jones go, and then what? Sign the available dreck of QBs that teams let become available? Invest premium picks on a rookie QB? If Jones is let go, and the rookie QB busts, Schoen/Daboll can probably say goodbye to their jobs.
IMO, he's too big a name/draw for the team to let him get away at this stage in his career. He's a fantastic 'face of the franchise' and it's hard to put a value on that...or more so to let that get away.
Let Jones go, and then what? Sign the available dreck of QBs that teams let become available? Invest premium picks on a rookie QB? If Jones is let go, and the rookie QB busts, Schoen/Daboll can probably say goodbye to their jobs.
DJ is averaging 222 TOTAL yards per game and 1.1 TDs per game? That's easily replaceable...EASILY! He's in the top 20 in ONE major QB stat (18th in total yards per game.)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you tag DJ, all $31 million hit the cap for next year, correct? How are you going to "load up" with 2/3rds (I think the Giants have $60ish million in cap space next year?) of your cap space devoted to DJ and Barkley?
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which is why I don't think using the transition tag on him is a bad idea. Everyone complains about the contracts given out to the Cousins type QB, but the reality is, true franchise QBs are few and far between. If the Giants are able to win 10-11 games with Jones and make the playoffs, it's really not too easy to just pass on Jones at $31 million. The prudent move is to load up on WR, tweak the OL, continue improving the roster. Keep in mind also, the Giants are possibly looking at a 3rd place schedule next year, even with 10-11 wins.
Let Jones go, and then what? Sign the available dreck of QBs that teams let become available? Invest premium picks on a rookie QB? If Jones is let go, and the rookie QB busts, Schoen/Daboll can probably say goodbye to their jobs.
DJ is averaging 222 TOTAL yards per game and 1.1 TDs per game? That's easily replaceable...EASILY! He's in the top 20 in ONE major QB stat (18th in total yards per game.)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you tag DJ, all $31 million hit the cap for next year, correct? How are you going to "load up" with 2/3rds (I think the Giants have $60ish million in cap space next year?) of your cap space devoted to DJ and Barkley?
You load up on WRs in the draft, not overpriced FA
because when negotiated he was in a different situation. he'd been durable and hadn't suffered any major injuries. he was coming off a 2400 yard, 19 td season and 0 missed games in 3 years. there's a reason the market since has evolved below that deal.
chubb's deal in 2021 came in lower. aaron jones hit the open market in 2021 (after CMC's extension) off a 1200 yard / 10 td / 4.7 ypc season and his open market deal was 12m per over 4 years.
i think barkley could better those 2 contracts but 8 healthy games isn't going reset the RB position when they come off 2.5 injury riddled years.
and if he wants to reset the market great - he can get the tag the next 2 years and hope to have a 2k yard, 20 td season and reset the market in March 2025 while the giants get him for a lower price and have 0 long term injury risk. that's what's called leverage.
He will command a lot more than love
I don’t know if we wait till he is a FA to extend him
Do it this offseason
Next yr, AT gets huge money
Nice