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NFT: FF Thursday Sit/Start

DefenseWins : 11/17/2022 7:22 am
in a half PPR league, I am struggling to decide who gets into my lineup. One of the guys plays tonight so I would like to figure this out today.

I need to fill the following:

1 RB
1 WR
1 Flex

My choices..

James Robinson @ Patriots
Dillon Vs Titans
Darrell Henderson @ Saints
Gus Edwards vs Panthers
Pacheco @ Chargers
Joshua Palmer vs Chiefs
Sutton vs Raiders
I have Lamar Jackson vs CAR and Justin Fields @ ATL  
US1 Giants : 11/17/2022 8:17 am : link
Trying to trade one of them. Who would you start?
RE: I have Lamar Jackson vs CAR and Justin Fields @ ATL  
DefenseWins : 11/17/2022 8:34 am : link
In comment 15910611 US1 Giants said:
Quote:
Trying to trade one of them. Who would you start?


Good question.. I have the same two QBs in a different league. I am starting Fields because he is the hot hand and Jackson was struggling a bit before the bye.
Start Fields  
GNewGiants : 11/17/2022 8:39 am : link
he is just on a much bigger role right now.

Tannehill or Carr is my choice this week.
RE: Start Fields  
DefenseWins : 11/17/2022 8:58 am : link
In comment 15910632 GNewGiants said:
Quote:
he is just on a much bigger role right now.

Tannehill or Carr is my choice this week.


I think Carr has better receiving options.
OP  
superspynyg : 11/17/2022 8:59 am : link
Edwards, Sutton, Dillon

Next guy Start Fields

My question:
With a possible snow storm in Buffalo this weekend would you start GB WR Watson tonight vs Tenn instead of Cooper vs Buffalo?
RE: RE: Start Fields  
GNewGiants : 11/17/2022 9:13 am : link
In comment 15910645 DefenseWins said:
Quote:
In comment 15910632 GNewGiants said:


Quote:


he is just on a much bigger role right now.

Tannehill or Carr is my choice this week.



I think Carr has better receiving options.


He does, but Denvers defense is pretty good while the Packers defense is missing a bunch of guys.
I like Sutton (Have him), Pacheco & Palmer  
GiantBlue : 11/17/2022 9:18 am : link
I think that KC-SD game is going to be a shoot-out and they will get their points.

I would start Lamar personally.

I have Josh Allen (in a storm situation) and Lamar....and thinking the unthinkable of starting Lamar over Josh depending on what the gametime conditions are in Buffalo.

The weather in Baltimore will mirror our conditions in NJ and if there is wind, Lamar has the arm/legs to get big points vs. a weird Carolina defense.

I have Sutton and hoping he can do something this week with Jeudy on the shelf. I also picked up Dulsich to replace injured Goedart and hoping he can score some points for me.
.5PPR  
RC in MD : 11/17/2022 10:26 am : link
Need a Flex.

D.Harris vs. NYJ
D.Slayton vs. Det
K.Pitts vs Chi

I'm leaning towards D.Slayton, as I can't trust K.Pitts at all.
RE: .5PPR  
DefenseWins : 11/17/2022 10:37 am : link
In comment 15910769 RC in MD said:
Quote:
Need a Flex.

D.Harris vs. NYJ
D.Slayton vs. Det
K.Pitts vs Chi

I'm leaning towards D.Slayton, as I can't trust K.Pitts at all.


Just check the weather Sunday morning. I am hearing high winds in our stadium.
DefenseWins  
allstarjim : 11/17/2022 12:37 pm : link
Quote:
James Robinson @ Patriots
Dillon Vs Titans
Darrell Henderson @ Saints
Gus Edwards vs Panthers
Pacheco @ Chargers
Joshua Palmer vs Chiefs
Sutton vs Raiders



I'll give you my depth chart here with analysis. I absolutely LOVE Gus the Bus against the Panthers. Harbaugh has shown he prefers Drake to be a change of pace back when Gus is healthy...Gus will be the primary runner this week if he's good to go as the expectation is. I'd put conservative prediction of 17-82-1 line for Edwards. Get on the Bus!

For WR, it's a little problematic. I'm playing Palmer over Sutton here if Williams or Allen or out. Just love that matchup, as I expect very little run game from the Chargers and we all know that the passing game in Denver is just in disarray, so hard to trust Sutton. I hope this is the week Wilson puts it together, as I am starting him in a bye week squeeze.

For flex, I don't love the matchup but I'm going with James Robinson. We know Saleh wants to run the football, and the 2nd game with J-Rob in a Jets uni, he basically split carries evenly with Carter. Now with the week 10 bye and extra week in the program, I'm predicting J-Rob gets the Breece Hall role in full, but at least 2/3rds of the backfield work. I believe they brought him in for a reason, and he's the most talented player left in the best role, even if the matchup isn't great.

If you're inclined, you could roll with Pacheco, who has seized that lead back role from CEH, but it's just a variance thing with the Chiefs when it comes to the run game, I think he's very TD-dependent.

Dillon, Henderson, and Sutton are the clear sits for me. So there you go.


In comment 15910611 US1 Giants said:
Quote:
RE: I have Lamar Jackson vs CAR and Justin Fields @ ATL Trying to trade one of them. Who would you start?


I'm going the other way than my compadres on this one. I know Fields is hot, but the Ravens, coming off the long week. I think he's read all the pub about Fields kind of taking over as the best running QB in the NFL, and we're going to see something from him at home vs a bad Carolina defense. Obviously, ATL is a good matchup for Fields as well and you really can't go wrong, but I want Lamar in this game, I think he's the safer floor at home vs a mess of a Carolina team. The one tie breaker for me is that ATL runs the ball very well, so I just think if they are able to run a lot of plays and play keep-away a bit, it means less possessions for Chicago, so that's why I'll lean Lamar, but it's a close one!

GNew - Definitely go Carr this week. I know the downside with a tough Denver defense in Mile High, but I like that Carr to Adams connection and think he's the safer bet.

In comment 15910648 superspynyg said:
Quote:

My question:
With a possible snow storm in Buffalo this weekend would you start GB WR Watson tonight vs Tenn instead of Cooper vs Buffalo?


Yeah, give me Watson tonight. Short week, I think they stick with what's working...they've found something here and so happy I was able to get Watson in two of my leagues. I think this has the potential to be what Amon-Ra St. Brown was towards the last month and a half of the season last year.

I hate those weather games for passing/receiving stats.


In comment 15910769 RC in MD said:
Quote:
Need a Flex.

D.Harris vs. NYJ
D.Slayton vs. Det
K.Pitts vs Chi

I'm leaning towards D.Slayton, as I can't trust K.Pitts at all.


I think you have it right. I don't love it, but Harris is close to droppable right now and will need a Stevenson injury to reclaim some fantasy relevance. And as you said, Pitts is just a dart throw, as is Slayton to a degree, but at least Slayton has a choice matchup and DJ has to throw to someone.

Just a report...in the league I am in first place in, I just traded OBJ, Freiermuth, and AJ Dillon, plus my 9th, 10th, and 11th picks for Gus Edwards, Kadarius Toney, and Rachaad White, plus a 12th, 13th, and 14th rounder. We can only trade 9th or later picks, and yeah, the draft is going to be a rough one next year, but I'm really going for it this year, will be worth it to win the belt!

My team now:

QBs: Burrow, T. Lawrence
RBs: K. Walker III, J-Rob, Gus the Bus, Rachaad White, James Cook, J.K. Dobbins (IR)
WRs: Justin Jefferson, Kadarius Toney, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Devonta Smith, and Jameson Williams (IR)
TE: Travis freaking Kelce

Now I've put myself in some tough lineup decisions going forward, but I'm super stoked as my team is now playoff-ready and my RB2 concerns are over, and I think with Toney, my WR situation is greatly improved.

Let me add  
allstarjim : 11/17/2022 12:45 pm : link
If you have Watson and he's in your flex, or any Packer or Titan in your flex, move them to your WR or RB spot. Keep that flex spot open for Sunday, as we never know what will happen with injuries before then...so stay nimble and flexible by keeping that flex spot for your Sunday performers.

Also, if for some crazy reason Jameson Williams is available in your league, it's last call. Could play Week 13 and he's a potential huge add for the playoffs.

Ditto for J.K. Dobbins, who is still a few weeks away at least, but if you have the room or can stash in an IR spot, he needs to be rostered. These guys shouldn't be available in most leagues, but worth mentioning. Prioritize Jameson Williams.
RE: DefenseWins  
DefenseWins : 11/17/2022 12:56 pm : link
In comment 15911016 allstarjim said:
Quote:



I'll give you my depth chart here with analysis. I absolutely LOVE Gus the Bus against the Panthers. Harbaugh has shown he prefers Drake to be a change of pace back when Gus is healthy...Gus will be the primary runner this week if he's good to go as the expectation is. I'd put conservative prediction of 17-82-1 line for Edwards. Get on the Bus!

For WR, it's a little problematic. I'm playing Palmer over Sutton here if Williams or Allen or out. Just love that matchup, as I expect very little run game from the Chargers and we all know that the passing game in Denver is just in disarray, so hard to trust Sutton. I hope this is the week Wilson puts it together, as I am starting him in a bye week squeeze.

For flex, I don't love the matchup but I'm going with James Robinson. We know Saleh wants to run the football, and the 2nd game with J-Rob in a Jets uni, he basically split carries evenly with Carter. Now with the week 10 bye and extra week in the program, I'm predicting J-Rob gets the Breece Hall role in full, but at least 2/3rds of the backfield work. I believe they brought him in for a reason, and he's the most talented player left in the best role, even if the matchup isn't great.

If you're inclined, you could roll with Pacheco, who has seized that lead back role from CEH, but it's just a variance thing with the Chiefs when it comes to the run game, I think he's very TD-dependent.

Dillon, Henderson, and Sutton are the clear sits for me. So there you go.



Jim
I appreciate the feedback. You like Gus, Robinson and Palmer.

A few things that I was thinking and want your thoughts..

1. do you think Jim H will play it cautiously with Edwards coming off of the injury? Maybe not the full workload that he would normally get?

2. Sutton - It looks like the Denver receiving corps is a bit depleted. Do you think that bumps up Sutton's target share?

I've been dealing with the prospect of having both of RB 1/2  
RC in MD : 11/17/2022 1:29 pm : link
on bye when I play my first playoff game.

I'm currently #1 and will have the bye for the first round in the playoffs when it starts in Week 13. However, my RB1/2 were J.Taylor and A.Jones. Both players have bye in Week 14, which means that I had to rely on the descending L.Fournette and backup players like D.Harris and N.Hines.

I just made a trade to send away J.Taylor and L.Fournette for E.Elliott, T.Pollard, and AJ.Dillon. While I would have liked to have kept J.Taylor, and it's not ideal regularly to start two RBs from the same team, this gives me a chance to have both E.Elliott and T.Pollard be my RB1/2 in Week 14 against the Texans. It also gives me a handcuff for A.Jones if his shin injury is worse than being reported.

So my current and most likely final roster (our trade deadline is this weekend) for the playoffs is:

QB: J.Allen
RB: A.Jones, E.Elliott
WR: S.Diggs, J.Jefferson
TE: T.Kelce
Flex: T.Pollard
S-Flex: D.Jones

Bench: M.Ryan, AJ.Dillon, D.Harris, N.Hines, K.Pitts

I don't really have any backup/bench strength at this point since I've traded them all away to get my starting lineup to where it is. Crossing fingers that I don't have some bad injuries, especially at the WR position.
RE: RE: DefenseWins  
allstarjim : 11/17/2022 1:37 pm : link
In comment 15911055 DefenseWins said:
Quote:
In comment 15911016 allstarjim said:


Quote:





I'll give you my depth chart here with analysis. I absolutely LOVE Gus the Bus against the Panthers. Harbaugh has shown he prefers Drake to be a change of pace back when Gus is healthy...Gus will be the primary runner this week if he's good to go as the expectation is. I'd put conservative prediction of 17-82-1 line for Edwards. Get on the Bus!

For WR, it's a little problematic. I'm playing Palmer over Sutton here if Williams or Allen or out. Just love that matchup, as I expect very little run game from the Chargers and we all know that the passing game in Denver is just in disarray, so hard to trust Sutton. I hope this is the week Wilson puts it together, as I am starting him in a bye week squeeze.

For flex, I don't love the matchup but I'm going with James Robinson. We know Saleh wants to run the football, and the 2nd game with J-Rob in a Jets uni, he basically split carries evenly with Carter. Now with the week 10 bye and extra week in the program, I'm predicting J-Rob gets the Breece Hall role in full, but at least 2/3rds of the backfield work. I believe they brought him in for a reason, and he's the most talented player left in the best role, even if the matchup isn't great.

If you're inclined, you could roll with Pacheco, who has seized that lead back role from CEH, but it's just a variance thing with the Chiefs when it comes to the run game, I think he's very TD-dependent.

Dillon, Henderson, and Sutton are the clear sits for me. So there you go.





Jim
I appreciate the feedback. You like Gus, Robinson and Palmer.

A few things that I was thinking and want your thoughts..

1. do you think Jim H will play it cautiously with Edwards coming off of the injury? Maybe not the full workload that he would normally get?

2. Sutton - It looks like the Denver receiving corps is a bit depleted. Do you think that bumps up Sutton's target share?


On point 1, no I don't. I think Gus probably could've played week 10 if they didn't have the bye, and I expect he'll be in for his normal starter workload this week, but worth monitoring. I still would probably play him because the matchup is so juicy, even if he split carries with Drake and to a lesser extent, Hill.

On point 2, I think it helps Dulcich more. I think Jalen Virgil is a guy to keep an eye on as well. Sutton I just don't trust. I think he's going to garner the bulk of the defensive attention, and it's more that I don't trust Wilson and his 7 TD passes on the season (yuck) to get him the ball enough to give me the upside I'm looking for.

I think Palmer, as long he's at least the #2, is in a better situation in terms of TD-hunting, particularly in that matchup with the Chiefs. I think Sutton has a floor of about 5 fantasy points (standard), but Palmer has a similar floor (as long as he's starting as the #1 or #2, and is a better bet to find the endzone this week. In some leagues, I've dropped Sutton weeks ago, and he remains available as a free agent.
RE: I've been dealing with the prospect of having both of RB 1/2  
allstarjim : 11/17/2022 2:14 pm : link
In comment 15911118 RC in MD said:
Quote:
on bye when I play my first playoff game.

I'm currently #1 and will have the bye for the first round in the playoffs when it starts in Week 13. However, my RB1/2 were J.Taylor and A.Jones. Both players have bye in Week 14, which means that I had to rely on the descending L.Fournette and backup players like D.Harris and N.Hines.

I just made a trade to send away J.Taylor and L.Fournette for E.Elliott, T.Pollard, and AJ.Dillon. While I would have liked to have kept J.Taylor, and it's not ideal regularly to start two RBs from the same team, this gives me a chance to have both E.Elliott and T.Pollard be my RB1/2 in Week 14 against the Texans. It also gives me a handcuff for A.Jones if his shin injury is worse than being reported.

So my current and most likely final roster (our trade deadline is this weekend) for the playoffs is:

QB: J.Allen
RB: A.Jones, E.Elliott
WR: S.Diggs, J.Jefferson
TE: T.Kelce
Flex: T.Pollard
S-Flex: D.Jones

Bench: M.Ryan, AJ.Dillon, D.Harris, N.Hines, K.Pitts

I don't really have any backup/bench strength at this point since I've traded them all away to get my starting lineup to where it is. Crossing fingers that I don't have some bad injuries, especially at the WR position.


Championship roster right there. You and I are really banking on the health of Kelce. Keep knocking on wood. I am probably going to be relegated to Juwan Johnson who I intend to pick up if something happens. Josh Allen worries me a little with the UCL injury, but honestly, I still think he's still a top 8 play at worst weekly, even if he's a little diminished.
RE: RE: I've been dealing with the prospect of having both of RB 1/2  
DefenseWins : 11/17/2022 2:26 pm : link
In comment 15911196 allstarjim said:
Quote:
championship roster right there


Check this out...

QB - Fields - Brady
RB - Mixon - jacobs - Stevenson - Walker - Wilson - Hunt
WR - Diggs - Olave - DJ Moore - Sutton - Doubs - Jameson Williams
TE - Kelce

I put this together with a series of free agents early in the season plus about 6 trades.

Unfortunately, I started 0-5 with a roster that was not this good. Then, the last two weeks I scored the 2nd most number of points in the league but was gong up against the team that scored the most points.

I am 3-7 with this roster and likely will miss the playoffs.
DW  
allstarjim : 11/17/2022 2:58 pm : link
that's really strong.

I would be flummoxed at how to deal with that RB situation. Obviously, Mixon coming off a huge game but he's been hit and miss.

I kind of like Walker, Jacobs, and Stevenson as your top 3 this week. Maybe you play Mixon over Jacobs with the tough matchup in Denver? Don't know.

I have a RB dilemma that's kind of sticking in my craw a bit, centered around Swift. I've been benching Swifty as he mends from the injury. Didn't get a lot of work last week but this week I want to believe he gets more back to normal in the snap department. I don't like to play him against our Giants, but I try to keep that separate. I think he's a factor in the pass game out of that backfield, and don't believe he needs 20-25 touches to put together a strong fantasy performance, but I do think he needs about 15.

That said, I have Foreman @ Ravens in my RB2 spot and Miles Sanders @ Indy in my flex, and I don't love either matchup. I don't want to be overly matchup-driven in these decisions, but feel like I might be missing the boat with Swift and not finding a way to get him in.

Foreman I like when the matchup is good. But he's a guy that when the gamescript is negative, his production will nosedive. We saw that in that Bengals game when they got down 3 touchdowns very early and he ended up with a clunker on just 7 carries. This Ravens game kind of worries me there.

Sanders has a tough matchup against the Colts. Other than Derrick Henry, they've pretty well managed opposing rushers pretty well this year. Most recently, holding Jacobs to a 21-78-1 line, so still a decent performance, prior to that holding Rhamondre Stevenson to a 15-60-0 line but Stevenson saved his day on short receiving score.

Would you gamble on Swift vs the Gmen over either of these guys? I like Sanders for 15-18 touches this week against the Colts. The Ravens have been even stingier against opposing rushers, they got touched up by Chubb in week 7 for 16-91-1 and another 16 receiving, but in the last two games against the Saints and Bucs, they've held Kamara to a 9-24-1 and 32 receiving on 3 catches, and Fournette and Rachaad White combined for 13-43-1 but 58 yards on 6 catches.

Obviously, Foreman gives you almost nothing in the receiving game, just 4 catches on 7 targets in the last 4 games since the CMC trade.

I'm leaning towards benching Foreman. Thoughts?
RE: RE: RE: I've been dealing with the prospect of having both of RB 1/2  
RC in MD : 11/17/2022 3:24 pm : link
In comment 15911211 DefenseWins said:
Quote:
In comment 15911196 allstarjim said:


Quote:


championship roster right there



Check this out...

QB - Fields - Brady
RB - Mixon - jacobs - Stevenson - Walker - Wilson - Hunt
WR - Diggs - Olave - DJ Moore - Sutton - Doubs - Jameson Williams
TE - Kelce

I put this together with a series of free agents early in the season plus about 6 trades.

Unfortunately, I started 0-5 with a roster that was not this good. Then, the last two weeks I scored the 2nd most number of points in the league but was gong up against the team that scored the most points.

I am 3-7 with this roster and likely will miss the playoffs.


That's rough. I'm 9-1 and currently have the highest total points by 100+ compared to the next highest total points.

In my league with six team playoffs, the #5 and #6 seeds are based on total points for the regular season. The top four seeds are all records based, but the next two seeds are given to the two teams out of the remaining eight with the highest total points. Right now, the team in the 12th place with a record of 3-7 actually has a chance to make the playoffs because he's only 30 points behind the current #6 ranked team. Makes the playoff race more fun.
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