Strength of Remaining Schedule
1. New York Giants (0.633)
2. Indianapolis Colts (0.611)
3. Chicago Bears (0.600)
4. New England Patriots (0.595)
5. Green Bay Packers (0.585)
6. Dallas Cowboys (0.573)
85% chance of Playoffs - Giants are going to have to earn it. Lots of talk about why Jones wasn't approached during the bye, but as someone who believes the plan with him was "wait and see": these next 8 games are what they want to see.
Play well early in the year - great. The Giants are about to run a gauntlet of tough, physical teams with playoff positioning on the line, and officials swallowing their whistles.
For Jones: These next 8 games have a huge impact on his future net worth. If he struggles/misses the playoffs, he could be looking at a 1-year prove it deal. If he continues his current level of play, he's looking at a solid Kirk Cousins-type deal. And if he rips it up, including Playoffs - he's getting top QB $$$, and (given all the QB needy teams) will be able to bend the Giants over a barrel to get it.
For the Giants: The data they're going to get in the next 8+ games is a God send. They get to see how he performs in a stretch run facing quality opponents. Important cold weather games. Pressure. And hopefully, playoffs. The stakes are high, and it's important to see if he shrinks with the ante up.
Getting to find out how he handles this enormous amount of pressure before approaching him with an extension is a no-brainer. I can't see either side wanting to get it done now.
This team will have a chance over the next 8 weeks to play the top three teams in the conference (by current record) four times. None of those are elimination games. Good time to learn your lessons.
For the NFL we are in the season, week 11. For the Giants, this is the playoffs pre-season, week 1.
At least I hope it works out this way.
I don't worry about that stuff much as right now to make the playoffs we probably need to win 3 maybe 4 games. I don't care who they come against, just that we get those baseline wins.
From there it would be nice to pad those numbers and get to 5 or maybe 6 wins and now we are really talking.
So far this season has been really enjoyable which is a nice change of pace.
At the other extreme, that game could be for the NFC East title and two home playoff games, or even for the #1 seed. In that (admittedly unlikely) scenario, the Eagles will have as much to fear from the Giants as vice-versa.
Minnesota is a tougher one to talk down. The Vikings might clinch the NFC North before Christmas Eve, but it's hard to imagine them having nothing to play for in Week 16. If the division is in hand, they will probably be in the running for the #1 seed and the solitary bye.
Was(5-5)- @Hou, Atl, @NYG, BYE, NYG, @SF, Clev, Dal
Phil(8-1)-@Ind, GB, Ten, @NYG, @Chi, @Dal, NO, NYG (3 straight road games)
Dal(6-3)-@Min, NYG, Ind, Hou, @Jax, Phil, @Ten, @Was (3 straight home games)
NYG(7-2)- Det, @Dal, Was, Phil, @Was, @Min, Ind, @Phil (on paper ours appears to be the toughest of the NFC East schedules)
Minn (8-1)- Dal, NE, NYJ, @Det, Ind, NYG, @GB, @Chi (Minny's schedule is mot easy at all)
GB (4-6)- Ten, @Phil, @Chi, BYE, LAR, @Mia, Min, Det (GB is in big trouble if they lose tonight their schedule is such that it would be very difficult to overcome).
SF (5-4)- @AZ, NO, Mia, TB, @Sea, Was, @LV, AZ (SF could get 5 or maybe 6 wins here. They could be a threat for a WC should we stumble down the stretch but absolutely threaten Was, Dal (at the moment) and GB.
Sea (6-4)- Bye, LV, @LAR, Car, SF, @KC, NYJ, LAR (Seattle has an interesting road and owns the head to head with us. LV, CAR and possibly LAR twice could be wins with then KC, SF and NYJ being tough physical games for them.
AZ and LAR will need a lot of help and both face a division opponent twice in the last half of the season (LAR gets Sea twice and AZ gets SF twice).
TB (5-5)- BYE, @Clev, No, @SF, Cin, @AZ, Car, @ Atl (I can see the Bucs winning 5 maybe 6 games and becoming very dangerous for the playoffs).
ATL (4-6)- Chi, @Was, Pit, @No, @Bal, AZ, TB (Atlanta could surprise here if they pull off wins at home with Chi, Pit and AZ and then steal two away games (NO and Was).
Car and NO would need a lot of help and only real threat is to win their division.
This team will have a chance over the next 8 weeks to play the top three teams in the conference (by current record) four times. None of those are elimination games. Good time to learn your lessons.
For the NFL we are in the season, week 11. For the Giants, this is the playoffs pre-season, week 1.
At least I hope it works out this way.
To play the top 3 teams in the Conference by current record one of the games would have to be an intrasquad scrimmage. Giants are 3rd, behind Philly and Minn., ahead of Dallas
This team will have a chance over the next 8 weeks to play the top three teams in the conference (by current record) four times. None of those are elimination games. Good time to learn your lessons.
For the NFL we are in the season, week 11. For the Giants, this is the playoffs pre-season, week 1.
At least I hope it works out this way.
And the first half schedule included 4 games against teams currently 6-3 or 6-4, of which the Giants won 2 and lost 2.
There are no guarantees in the NFL
The others have better OL, better receivers or both. But I’ll stick with our kid. He could be scary good next year with a couple of stud WR’s like the other teams have.
Offensively, shocked we couldn't run all over them in game 1. Giants will run for 250 on them, just watch.
Gotta take care of business this week though in classic example of a trap game. Spunky bad team, sandwiched in on short week divisional rival, coming off a win where we controlled it from start to finish essentially.
We will be paying for something like 13-4 and a playoff win.
Make your peace with it.
I agree...only 4 remaining games are "good" teams. The Giants just make every game close with their style of play. The Giants couldn't have asked for an easier schedule overall, especially considering that 2 of the best teams in the NFL are in their division.
To play the top 3 teams in the Conference by current record one of the games would have to be an intrasquad scrimmage. Giants are 3rd, behind Philly and Minn., ahead of Dallas
Yes, what I meant to say was the other top teams in the conference, and who might be a tough out in the playoffs.
Playoff teams (as of right now):
NFCE - Philly
NFCS - TB
NFCN - Minny
NFCW - Sea
WC1 - NYG
WC2 - Dal
WC3 - SF
Washington is the only team @ .500 who is not in, and that makes them 1/2 game behind SF. Who knows how that plays out, but one could envision a scenario where they end up WC3.
Crazy as it sounds, the Giants then would have the possibility of playing 6 of their last 8 games against possible NFC playoff opponents, and enter the playoffs with regular season experience against 5 of the 6 in the playoffs.
2 vs. #1
1 vs. #2
1 vs. #6
2 vs. #7
It would be very instructive for this young team to go up against these contenders during the season and learn NOW what it might take to beat them after the season ends. I think it's how good becomes better, and better becomes best.
Lol, Ok
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the rubber finally meets the road for Jones. Do or bye.
Throwing to who?
Got the excuses ready I see?
Your comment makes no sense.
7-2 record is terrific, but it's not the whole story as much as the "we've found our QB" wants to believe it.
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In comment 15910754 JonC said:
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the rubber finally meets the road for Jones. Do or bye.
Throwing to who?
Got the excuses ready I see?
Are you openly saying the Giants have good enough WRs for Jones to carry us to big time victories with his arm?
This is a litmus test you usually fail as a poster. So I will understand you will ignore the question and pawn this off with no substance because that is your MO.
Bring it on. Not to mention the early easier schedule afforded us some success even if we didn't play our best. We needed that start.
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the rubber finally meets the road for Jones. Do or bye.
Lol, Ok
I know...guy has been doing it all year. Now it's do or die? It was do or die from week 1 and he's been doing.
7-2 record is terrific, but it's not the whole story as much as the "we've found our QB" wants to believe it.
Bottom line is Jones is doing more than you and many here are crediting him for. Plain and simple. Maybe we didn't "find our QB" but he's a legit PRO QB and will be starting NEXT season, somewhere, and it's probably right here. Bank on it.
Again, it was do or die week 1. And He's been fine. I am blown away at the people here who can't envision this offense improving just by adding 2 WRs that are above replacement level. Jones isn't playing in a barren offense, not by any means. HE's got the great running game and he's well coached and voila! He's winning and scoring 21 PPG! That means he's doing his part.
You telling me this offense can't score 25+ PPG with 2 good WRS added to the mix, not to mention a year of development from everyone else, including DJ? You really believe that? This O won't improve with better WRs...
I don't get it.
IF DJ wasn't doing his job and playing well, we aren't 7-2. We aren't scoring (granted it's nothing special) 21 PPG. We are closer to 17-18 and closer to 4-5.
You don't get out to 7-2 with no WRs and no QB. Not both.
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the rubber finally meets the road for Jones. Do or bye.
Lol, Ok
What part do you disagree with?
Or were you just feeling giggly?
I'm not here to rain on anyone's parade. Enjoy it. I am enjoying it too. At the same time, I am an optimizer and a compartmentalizer, and with an eye towards the future I still would wager Jones is not the QB they commit to longterm. YMMV. 80% of this forum doesn't know what they're looking at when watching a football game in terms of analysis or moving parts.
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There's much more Jones needs to do in order for the Giants to step up to contender, and it's stuff he's not really shown in the NFL. I'm not prepared to build around him.
7-2 record is terrific, but it's not the whole story as much as the "we've found our QB" wants to believe it.
Bottom line is Jones is doing more than you and many here are crediting him for. Plain and simple. Maybe we didn't "find our QB" but he's a legit PRO QB and will be starting NEXT season, somewhere, and it's probably right here. Bank on it.
Again, it was do or die week 1. And He's been fine. I am blown away at the people here who can't envision this offense improving just by adding 2 WRs that are above replacement level. Jones isn't playing in a barren offense, not by any means. HE's got the great running game and he's well coached and voila! He's winning and scoring 21 PPG! That means he's doing his part.
You telling me this offense can't score 25+ PPG with 2 good WRS added to the mix, not to mention a year of development from everyone else, including DJ? You really believe that? This O won't improve with better WRs...
I don't get it.
That's all reasonable.
Where it falls apart is when it comes to the price tag, and you go into your whole routine of plugging your fingers in your ears and pretending like the salary cap is a figment of your imagination.
Paying DJ $30M+ per year will have an impact on the Giants' ability to go get those WRs that he needs to take the next step (or cause a sacrifice elsewhere on the roster, eventually), and it would still be on spec based on what can be projected for DJ, unless he shows it this year with the receivers that he's got right now.
Sure, it's entirely possible and maybe even probable that he'd take that next step up with better receivers. It's also possible that the next step he takes isn't quite as large as you think, and then you're paying him $30M+ per year to be only slightly better than he is right now, and paying those new receivers for the boost that never quite arrives.
We entered this year with a 1st round WR, a 2nd round WR, a big money FA WR, to go along with a supremely talented RB. There have been significant injuries at WR to go along with at least one headcase at the position to go along with effort/dedication question marks for another, but it's not like the position itself has been neglected. How many more resources go to that position AND still cover a 4x increase in the price of the QB?
Ideally, you'd like to have a little more than hope to go on when you're determining the right contract value for DJ. I think that's Jon's point (or at least that's my interpretation). Giants fans are so beaten down by the past few years of dreadful football that they're willing to fork over a fortune just for the feeling of hope that they'd forgotten for years.
It should take more than hope to make a decision this important for the franchise.
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In comment 15911866 JonC said:
Quote:
There's much more Jones needs to do in order for the Giants to step up to contender, and it's stuff he's not really shown in the NFL. I'm not prepared to build around him.
7-2 record is terrific, but it's not the whole story as much as the "we've found our QB" wants to believe it.
Bottom line is Jones is doing more than you and many here are crediting him for. Plain and simple. Maybe we didn't "find our QB" but he's a legit PRO QB and will be starting NEXT season, somewhere, and it's probably right here. Bank on it.
Again, it was do or die week 1. And He's been fine. I am blown away at the people here who can't envision this offense improving just by adding 2 WRs that are above replacement level. Jones isn't playing in a barren offense, not by any means. HE's got the great running game and he's well coached and voila! He's winning and scoring 21 PPG! That means he's doing his part.
You telling me this offense can't score 25+ PPG with 2 good WRS added to the mix, not to mention a year of development from everyone else, including DJ? You really believe that? This O won't improve with better WRs...
I don't get it.
That's all reasonable.
Where it falls apart is when it comes to the price tag, and you go into your whole routine of plugging your fingers in your ears and pretending like the salary cap is a figment of your imagination.
Paying DJ $30M+ per year will have an impact on the Giants' ability to go get those WRs that he needs to take the next step (or cause a sacrifice elsewhere on the roster, eventually), and it would still be on spec based on what can be projected for DJ, unless he shows it this year with the receivers that he's got right now.
Sure, it's entirely possible and maybe even probable that he'd take that next step up with better receivers. It's also possible that the next step he takes isn't quite as large as you think, and then you're paying him $30M+ per year to be only slightly better than he is right now, and paying those new receivers for the boost that never quite arrives.
We entered this year with a 1st round WR, a 2nd round WR, a big money FA WR, to go along with a supremely talented RB. There have been significant injuries at WR to go along with at least one headcase at the position to go along with effort/dedication question marks for another, but it's not like the position itself has been neglected. How many more resources go to that position AND still cover a 4x increase in the price of the QB?
Ideally, you'd like to have a little more than hope to go on when you're determining the right contract value for DJ. I think that's Jon's point (or at least that's my interpretation). Giants fans are so beaten down by the past few years of dreadful football that they're willing to fork over a fortune just for the feeling of hope that they'd forgotten for years.
It should take more than hope to make a decision this important for the franchise.
You overstate my take on the cap at every turn. This is why I don't even want to sucked into the cap talk.
You also overstate the impact of paying a lot of money to a good player at a premium position.
Try and stay in the nuance of things.
You also overstate the impact of paying a lot of money to a good player at a premium position.
Try and stay in the nuance of things.
There's a cognitive dissonance involved in dismissing the impact of overpaying players with enormous contracts and simultaneously claiming to be aware of the cap and its consequences.
I'll say it again, when it comes to certain players or certain positions, ESPECIALLY QB, the cap goes out the fucking window. It's right there in front of you to see, all around the NFL. Teams make financially hard decisions all the time, due to the cap and budgets, but they make clean sweeping bite the bullet decisions when the juice aint worth the squeeze and they go all in for years at a time when it is worth it.
IF this was 1998 or 2008 or 2022, the Giants will bring back Jones because they want to. Or they let him go because they feel he is replacable. It was hard to move on from a
expensive poor QB back in the 80s too. Still is today. Money was a factor in 1988 and it's a factor now, yes probably even more so now, but The Giants won't be sitting there in March saying "we can't bring DJ back as the cap hit will be too big" nope, sorry not happening. They will be saying we don't think he's good enough long term. We can upgrade. That's why he won't be back.
They aren't making a cap decision on Daniel Jones. This isn't the backup guard we're talking about. IT's the QB. IF they like him, he's coming back--big money and all.
This is not a fucking cap decision as much as it is a QB decision. It's bigger than cap hits.
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You overstate my take on the cap at every turn. This is why I don't even want to sucked into the cap talk.
You also overstate the impact of paying a lot of money to a good player at a premium position.
Try and stay in the nuance of things.
There's a cognitive dissonance involved in dismissing the impact of overpaying players with enormous contracts and simultaneously claiming to be aware of the cap and its consequences.
Again, you're saying shit that I never truly stated. You're perfect for internet debates. Just win the argument, that's all that counts right?
I'll say it again, when it comes to certain players or certain positions, ESPECIALLY QB, the cap goes out the fucking window. It's right there in front of you to see, all around the NFL. Teams make financially hard decisions all the time, due to the cap and budgets, but they make clean sweeping bite the bullet decisions when the juice aint worth the squeeze and they go all in for years at a time when it is worth it.
IF this was 1998 or 2008 or 2022, the Giants will bring back Jones because they want to. Or they let him go because they feel he is replacable. It was hard to move on from a
expensive poor QB back in the 80s too. Still is today. Money was a factor in 1988 and it's a factor now, yes probably even more so now, but The Giants won't be sitting there in March saying "we can't bring DJ back as the cap hit will be too big" nope, sorry not happening. They will be saying we don't think he's good enough long term. We can upgrade. That's why he won't be back.
They aren't making a cap decision on Daniel Jones. This isn't the backup guard we're talking about. IT's the QB. IF they like him, he's coming back--big money and all.
This is not a fucking cap decision as much as it is a QB decision. It's bigger than cap hits.
The cap hit is part of the reason WHY it's such a massive decision. And even if you through the cap out the window, you're still basing it primarily on hope if you see nothing more over the next eight games that you haven't seen already.
For what it's going to cost, and how inescapable the contract may be for some length of time, it's not unreasonable to hope to see a little bit more progress in 2022 before laying out the big bucks instead of paying them out first and then still betting on hope.
With that in mind, is he coming back? Cap and all?
The answer is 90% yes. Allow for the slight chance that some team goes completely ape shit and offers DJ a deal so far out of this world that NYG can't bear to match. 10%.
Again, this is going to be a football decision and I can almost hear those words being uttered in the PC. FOOTBALL DECISION.
Hope was week 1. It's week 11 now.
Cap is a thing. IT's a factor. It's not everything and anyone who insists on this is weird.
Letting a good player walk just because of the cap or money would lead to a revolt if the Giants failed to find a good enough QB.
I trust this regime.
"A lot of people thought that Eli was washed up (the last few years) and you had to get him out of there. I didn't feel like Eli was washed up. He was pretty much physically the exact same player he'd been years before that. But he played his best football when he had a balanced running game, and they just didn't have that his last five years there.
Physically Daniel is very good, and he's bright, and he checks all the boxes. It just bothered me that [fans and media] were getting on him. It wasn't too much different from Eli's last few years. When you can't run the ball, very seldom are you going to be successful in the passing game.
I think Daniel can absolutely take his team to a Super Bowl. I think Daniel can be one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He's accurate with the football, he's tough, he's got escapability and he's smart. If you put a good team around Daniel, he can lead them down the right road."
You're 100% right on that, and I agree. But as of right now, IMO, it's still hope. And from my view, I think Schoen is still waiting to see how the rest of the season goes (both for the Giants and for DJ) - if it were already decided, if DJ had already done enough, then I would have expected Schoen to have tried to bring DJ to the negotiating table already, the way that he has with Barkley and Love.
That suggests to me that DJ hasn't finished making his case yet. Thus, as of today, anyone speaking with confidence that DJ will be back next year and beyond is betting on hope. I can easily see a scenario where DJ is definitely back, and I can see a scenario where DJ is definitely not.
As of right now, I think Schoen is waiting to see more from DJ before committing. How much more is anyone's guess (as far as fans go), but I don't think anyone can claim that Schoen and Daboll are already sold on DJ. If they weren't negotiating with anyone, I could understand the confidence. But they did. Just not DJ. I don't think it's decided just yet either way, and for that reason, I go back to Jon's posts above, which nail it, IMO.