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DJ has a crazy good 3rd and long conversion rate

Now Mike in MD : 11/18/2022 11:11 am
This info courtesy of Skinner: Daniel Jones is converting 48 percent of 3rd and long situations (defined as needing 7 yards or more) That is insanely good.

Just for comparison sake, that is better than the conversion rates of 29 other teams on all third downs! Further, the best team at converting third downs is Buffalo, which converts on all third downs at a rate of only 52.3 percent.

Obviously, 3rd and long situations are by far the most difficult passing downs, more pressure, tighter windows, longer routes. Everything is stacked against a QB. Yet DJ's completion percentage in 3rd and long is 68 percent!

I had a sense from watching the games that we converting a lot of third and longs but had no idea we were having this level of success.
Jones is nothing short of a miracle worker  
Spiciest Memelord : 11/18/2022 11:16 am : link
doing what he does with this receiving corp.

Interesting  
Lines of Scrimmage : 11/18/2022 11:17 am : link
especially with our WR and PB situation. I think some of it has been aided by some great runs by him as well. I'd like to also see the times the Giants have been in this situation versus the league. I think for the most part they have been ahead of the chains. This can have a impact on the how the percentages play out imv.

I remember in training camp BD did a drill for this type of situation. Results were not good and there was some chatter on here about Jones (negative) as the beats were putting out how poor the Giants and Jones looked against the D.

Good job by BD preparing the team and even better execution by Jones and the team.
And that’s in a situation that is pretty abysmal for 3rd and long  
Returning Video Tapes : 11/18/2022 11:17 am : link
People that point to stats, this is the type of stats Daboll cares about (as he’s said in his press conference)

Unless DJ falls apart, he’ll be wearing blue next year.
we could probably get a QB in the mid to late 1st round  
KDavies : 11/18/2022 11:19 am : link
that can get that up to 49%
RE: we could probably get a QB in the mid to late 1st round  
Spiciest Memelord : 11/18/2022 11:20 am : link
In comment 15911979 KDavies said:
Quote:
that can get that up to 49%


There's plenty of bbi favorite QB messiah saviors like Russell Wilson and Mitch Trubisky we should have traded for.
Exactly this.. He has  
TheBlueprintNC : 11/18/2022 11:28 am : link
zero margin for error.. And yet we stand at 7-2.. with this WR core and No TE until Bellinger comes back.

Some Giants fans have to wake up.
RE: Interesting  
Spiciest Memelord : 11/18/2022 11:30 am : link
In comment 15911973 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
especially with our WR and PB situation. I think some of it has been aided by some great runs by him as well. I'd like to also see the times the Giants have been in this situation versus the league. I think for the most part they have been ahead of the chains. This can have a impact on the how the percentages play out imv.

I remember in training camp BD did a drill for this type of situation. Results were not good and there was some chatter on here about Jones (negative) as the beats were putting out how poor the Giants and Jones looked against the D.

Good job by BD preparing the team and even better execution by Jones and the team.


This year under Daboll, its not a good idea for a D to play Cover 2 man or man blitz with the threat of Jones running, Jones could shiv a knife in your heart with a long TD run.
this thread might not get posts from certain folks  
Dr. D : 11/18/2022 11:56 am : link
to paraphrase The Beatles: It's all too much (for some to take)
It checks out because the eye test  
The Dude : 11/18/2022 11:57 am : link
has been saying the same thing. NYG is definitely hitting long 3rd downs at an impressive clip. Sometimes i wonder...maybe we should be passing alittle*** bit more, just because we are capabale....but i fully understand our self awareness about the roster and situations have brought us to 7-2 thusfar.
"But, but, but, but...  
MOOPS : 11/18/2022 12:05 pm : link
all he does is dink and dunk."
Dink and dunk? Whatever it takes ...  
Ron Johnson : 11/18/2022 12:14 pm : link
I know we've been winning  
Dr. D : 11/18/2022 12:14 pm : link
and will probably be very run heavy again this week, but I hope we eventually start passing a little more on downs other than 3rd and long, even if the overall run/pass ratio doesn't change too much.

I'm not saying Kafka has been Dan Reeves with the run, run, pass. He has occasionally passed on first or 2nd, just would eventually like to see a little more, to be less predictable.

Call me crazy, but maybe the current version of Slayton, along with Hodgins, Wan dale (depending on hammy) and Cager, could be the best group we've had in a while and good enough until Bellinger returns. And then, it could be good enough to make a little noise in Jan.
thanks Ron Johnson  
Dr. D : 11/18/2022 12:17 pm : link
I think I've been hypnotized by Al Davis!
That is actually bad to have that as a good stat  
Essex : 11/18/2022 12:23 pm : link
it is totally unsustainable. Look at Carson Wentz in 2017 and all of his other years. Amazing third and long conversion rate in 2017 and he was a MVP, subsequent years not so much and struggles to be a capable starter in this league.
RE: thanks Ron Johnson  
Ron Johnson : 11/18/2022 12:31 pm : link
In comment 15912079 Dr. D said:
Quote:
I think I've been hypnotized by Al Davis!


lol, sorry Doc. Seemed like a good idea at the time.
That is a good number...  
bw in dc : 11/18/2022 12:38 pm : link
Doing a quick scan of the game logs, it looks like 15/31 as the converted/attempted.

Of the 15, it looks like 7 were passed that were short of the marker and the receiver converted on YAC. Somewhat interesting, but not sure how to contextualize that vs the league.

Two of those were executed by Taylor (Chicago game) and one was a result of an illegal contact. So, I tossed those.



RE: RE: thanks Ron Johnson  
Dr. D : 11/18/2022 12:38 pm : link
In comment 15912102 Ron Johnson said:
Quote:
In comment 15912079 Dr. D said:


Quote:


I think I've been hypnotized by Al Davis!



lol, sorry Doc. Seemed like a good idea at the time.

I like it!

Just Win Baby
Just Win Baby
Just Win Baby
I am curious of the WR drop rate of the  
ArcadeSlumlord : 11/18/2022 1:23 pm : link
other 52% of the snaps that failed.
All you had to do  
joeinpa : 11/18/2022 1:23 pm : link
Is watch the games to realize Giants have kept more than a few crucial drives alive with key 3 rd and long conversions

Safe to state that 99.9% of fans n this forum are enjoying the winning. But
there is more than a little push back against the idea that 7-2 is somehow a validation of Jones as a quarterback.


Essex  
WillieYoung : 11/18/2022 1:25 pm : link
You must be a joy to be around. Finding dark clouds in every silver lining.
Dexter Lawrences pressure rate is a bad stat because it's totally unsustainable. Look at Ndamukong Suh.
RE: That is actually bad to have that as a good stat  
Gman11 : 11/18/2022 1:36 pm : link
In comment 15912088 Essex said:
Quote:
it is totally unsustainable. Look at Carson Wentz in 2017 and all of his other years. Amazing third and long conversion rate in 2017 and he was a MVP, subsequent years not so much and struggles to be a capable starter in this league.


Yeah. How dare he play well on third downs. The NERVE!
RE: That is a good number...  
Now Mike in MD : 11/18/2022 1:38 pm : link
In comment 15912110 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Doing a quick scan of the game logs, it looks like 15/31 as the converted/attempted.

Of the 15, it looks like 7 were passed that were short of the marker and the receiver converted on YAC. Somewhat interesting, but not sure how to contextualize that vs the league.

Two of those were executed by Taylor (Chicago game) and one was a result of an illegal contact. So, I tossed those.




I would not be surprised if league wide a lot of 3rd and long passing conversions invovle YAC because most times the defense is bunching guys at the sticks. However, I would not say this cheapens the numbers for DJ. It's not like he's throwing to Hill. His guys are fairly pedestrian YAC receivers.
RE: That is a good number...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 11/18/2022 1:51 pm : link
In comment 15912110 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Doing a quick scan of the game logs, it looks like 15/31 as the converted/attempted.

Of the 15, it looks like 7 were passed that were short of the marker and the receiver converted on YAC. Somewhat interesting, but not sure how to contextualize that vs the league.

Two of those were executed by Taylor (Chicago game) and one was a result of an illegal contact. So, I tossed those.




LOL - I think the context was well stated in the OP, but if you want to scan game logs and do a deep dive to try and minimize the info shared - have at it.

Again - Jones is converting 3rd down and long at a higher rate than some teams are converting all 3rd downs. It's going to be really, really hard to shit on that
Let's review...  
bw in dc : 11/18/2022 1:55 pm : link
I wrote, "That is a good number..."

And then I was curious how those conversions happened.

JFC. I love this place.
RE: Let's review...  
Now Mike in MD : 11/18/2022 2:01 pm : link
In comment 15912199 bw in dc said:
Quote:
I wrote, "That is a good number..."

And then I was curious how those conversions happened.

JFC. I love this place.


Geez. Calm down Dude. I wasn't attacking you. Just having a dialogue
RE: Essex  
markky : 11/18/2022 2:01 pm : link
In comment 15912162 WillieYoung said:
Quote:
You must be a joy to be around. Finding dark clouds in every silver lining.
Dexter Lawrences pressure rate is a bad stat because it's totally unsustainable. Look at Ndamukong Suh.


He's not wrong. Reggie White had impressive pressure statistics and now he's out of the league. It's not sustainable.
RE: RE: Essex  
Dr. D : 11/18/2022 2:47 pm : link
In comment 15912205 markky said:
Quote:
In comment 15912162 WillieYoung said:


Quote:


You must be a joy to be around. Finding dark clouds in every silver lining.
Dexter Lawrences pressure rate is a bad stat because it's totally unsustainable. Look at Ndamukong Suh.



He's not wrong. Reggie White had impressive pressure statistics and now he's out of the league. It's not sustainable.

Phil Simms once completed 22 out of 25 passes in a pretty big game. That was bad. Totally unsustainable.

LOL!
RE: RE: Let's review...  
bw in dc : 11/18/2022 3:06 pm : link
In comment 15912204 Now Mike in MD said:
Quote:
In comment 15912199 bw in dc said:


Quote:


I wrote, "That is a good number..."

And then I was curious how those conversions happened.

JFC. I love this place.



Geez. Calm down Dude. I wasn't attacking you. Just having a dialogue


That was intended for my Fat Friend in Charlotte.
...  
gfinop : 11/18/2022 3:07 pm : link
Knew it would be pretty good based on some of those long  
NYGgolfer : 11/18/2022 3:10 pm : link
successful 4th QTR drives the team had in the first several games.

But 48% is indeed crazy good.
RE: That is actually bad to have that as a good stat  
Red Right Hand : 11/18/2022 3:21 pm : link
In comment 15912088 Essex said:
Quote:
it is totally unsustainable. Look at Carson Wentz in 2017 and all of his other years. Amazing third and long conversion rate in 2017 and he was a MVP, subsequent years not so much and struggles to be a capable starter in this league.
rubbish
DJ has been crazy good at 3rd and longs ever  
barens : 11/18/2022 3:31 pm : link
since he's been here.
and how many attempts is this?  
Producer : 11/18/2022 4:14 pm : link
that's a bit of crucial info because, you know, sample size...
RE: and how many attempts is this?  
bw in dc : 11/18/2022 4:31 pm : link
In comment 15912317 Producer said:
Quote:
that's a bit of crucial info because, you know, sample size...


I adrressed this above.
RE: RE: and how many attempts is this?  
Producer : 11/18/2022 5:24 pm : link
In comment 15912329 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15912317 Producer said:


Quote:


that's a bit of crucial info because, you know, sample size...



I adrressed this above.


We're talking about a sample size of 31? Yea, ok.
RE: That is actually bad to have that as a good stat  
Brown_Hornet : 11/18/2022 5:24 pm : link
In comment 15912088 Essex said:
Quote:
it is totally unsustainable. Look at Carson Wentz in 2017 and all of his other years. Amazing third and long conversion rate in 2017 and he was a MVP, subsequent years not so much and struggles to be a capable starter in this league.
Help me here, being efficient on 3rd and long is a bad thing?!
A 17 game schedule  
Ron Johnson : 11/18/2022 5:28 pm : link
Is too small a sample size to seriously consider any stats. Please stop using stats in all arguments. Thanks
The only good sample size to judge Jones  
Spiciest Memelord : 11/18/2022 5:31 pm : link
are six passes in 7 on 7s in July, and only the six passes Jones did not do well in.
RE: RE: RE: and how many attempts is this?  
bw in dc : 11/18/2022 5:33 pm : link
In comment 15912355 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 15912329 bw in dc said:


I adrressed this above.



We're talking about a sample size of 31? Yea, ok.


I really don't know how that compares versus the rest of the league. My quick effort was to get a rough idea. So, that could be a reasonable sample vis-a-vis other QBs.
So you guys think 30 throws is a good basis to draw conclusions?  
Producer : 11/18/2022 5:56 pm : link
Doubtful. You can't possibly be that stupid.
RE: RE: RE: RE: and how many attempts is this?  
Producer : 11/18/2022 5:58 pm : link
In comment 15912367 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 15912355 Producer said:


Quote:


In comment 15912329 bw in dc said:


I adrressed this above.



We're talking about a sample size of 31? Yea, ok.



I really don't know how that compares versus the rest of the league. My quick effort was to get a rough idea. So, that could be a reasonable sample vis-a-vis other QBs.


I appreciate your effort. 31 throws tells us literally nothing about a player. It's certainly not a counter weight to his entire career of poor production.
RE: Let's review...  
GMen72 : 11/18/2022 6:05 pm : link
In comment 15912199 bw in dc said:
Quote:
I wrote, "That is a good number..."

And then I was curious how those conversions happened.

JFC. I love this place.


Yeah, don't give stats that don't feed the narrative of DJ being Mahomes!

As others have said, it's unsustainable. When a player (at any position) is doing something completely out of his norm, and at a higher than league average, he will regress. Remember how great Ryan Fitzpatrick was for a while? Trevon Diggs gonna get double digit INTs this year? Do you think Fields will continue on the same pace he's been on for the last 2 games? The NFL always catches up.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: and how many attempts is this?  
gary_from_chester : 11/18/2022 6:14 pm : link
In comment 15912385 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 15912367 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 15912355 Producer said:


Quote:


In comment 15912329 bw in dc said:


I adrressed this above.



We're talking about a sample size of 31? Yea, ok.



I really don't know how that compares versus the rest of the league. My quick effort was to get a rough idea. So, that could be a reasonable sample vis-a-vis other QBs.



I appreciate your effort. 31 throws tells us literally nothing about a player. It's certainly not a counter weight to his entire career of poor production.


There are only a few Mahomes, Allen, Herbert. We all know DJ is not that. But he has been money in clutch situations all year. He got killed in the Dallas game but kept trying to make plays - that was a courageous effort. We all have our opinions, but give the man his due - he has balled out this year; stats don’t tell the story. This particular stat IS indicative of his play THIS YEAR with this COACHING STAFF. Like him or not, he has played winning football to date and I for one am enjoying it (I was in the camp we need to move on, now teserving judgment until the season plays out).
LT had 20 sacks  
Spiciest Memelord : 11/18/2022 6:18 pm : link
20 is just too small a number to draw the conclusion he's good.
RE: RE: Let's review...  
Now Mike in MD : 11/18/2022 6:49 pm : link
In comment 15912391 GMen72 said:
Quote:
In comment 15912199 bw in dc said:


Quote:


I wrote, "That is a good number..."

And then I was curious how those conversions happened.

JFC. I love this place.



Yeah, don't give stats that don't feed the narrative of DJ being Mahomes!

As others have said, it's unsustainable. When a player (at any position) is doing something completely out of his norm, and at a higher than league average, he will regress. Remember how great Ryan Fitzpatrick was for a while? Trevon Diggs gonna get double digit INTs this year? Do you think Fields will continue on the same pace he's been on for the last 2 games? The NFL always catches up.


Not one person has ever said. Nice straw man
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: and how many attempts is this?  
Producer : 11/18/2022 9:37 pm : link
In comment 15912397 gary_from_chester said:
Quote:
In comment 15912385 Producer said:


Quote:


In comment 15912367 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 15912355 Producer said:


Quote:


In comment 15912329 bw in dc said:


I adrressed this above.



We're talking about a sample size of 31? Yea, ok.



I really don't know how that compares versus the rest of the league. My quick effort was to get a rough idea. So, that could be a reasonable sample vis-a-vis other QBs.



I appreciate your effort. 31 throws tells us literally nothing about a player. It's certainly not a counter weight to his entire career of poor production.



There are only a few Mahomes, Allen, Herbert. We all know DJ is not that. But he has been money in clutch situations all year. He got killed in the Dallas game but kept trying to make plays - that was a courageous effort. We all have our opinions, but give the man his due - he has balled out this year; stats don’t tell the story. This particular stat IS indicative of his play THIS YEAR with this COACHING STAFF. Like him or not, he has played winning football to date and I for one am enjoying it (I was in the camp we need to move on, now teserving judgment until the season plays out).


He is a gamer, there is no doubt, and he has made important contributions to the winning streak we are on
RE: RE: Let's review...  
Brown_Hornet : 11/19/2022 12:46 am : link
In comment 15912391 GMen72 said:
Quote:
In comment 15912199 bw in dc said:


Quote:


I wrote, "That is a good number..."

And then I was curious how those conversions happened.

JFC. I love this place.



Yeah, don't give stats that don't feed the narrative of DJ being Mahomes!

As others have said, it's unsustainable. When a player (at any position) is doing something completely out of his norm, and at a higher than league average, he will regress. Remember how great Ryan Fitzpatrick was for a while? Trevon Diggs gonna get double digit INTs this year? Do you think Fields will continue on the same pace he's been on for the last 2 games? The NFL always catches up.
Apples and oranges.
The Giants on 3rd and long are calling the right plays and the team is executing at a much higher clip than they have previously... we can agree.

But, this is a new staff calling plays and teaching players.

What is happening is that the norm is now different. Leading the league is indeed new...but it is the new norm.

The past is the past. Enjoy the ride.
RE: So you guys think 30 throws is a good basis to draw conclusions?  
pivo : 11/19/2022 1:24 am : link
In comment 15912384 Producer said:
Quote:
Doubtful. You can't possibly be that stupid.


You were expecting 500 third and longs for a 7-2 team? You may want to check a mirror.
RE: RE: So you guys think 30 throws is a good basis to draw conclusions?  
Ron Johnson : 11/19/2022 7:11 am : link
In comment 15912576 pivo said:
Quote:
In comment 15912384 Producer said:


Quote:


Doubtful. You can't possibly be that stupid.



You were expecting 500 third and longs for a 7-2 team? You may want to check a mirror.


If Jones was bad on third and long you can bet they wouldn’t be questioning the sample size.

If you want to see conclusions drawn on a small sample size, watch the game thread. The first bad throw will be emblematic of his inaccuracy
People keep feeding this trio.  
joe48 : 11/19/2022 8:51 am : link
They will never admit anything good about DJ. The goal posts keep moving.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: and how many attempts is this?  
joeinpa : 11/19/2022 2:52 pm : link
In comment 15912385 Producer said:
[quote] In comment 15912367 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 15912355 Producer said:


Quote:


In comment 15912329 bw in dc said:


I adrressed this above.



We're talking about a sample size of 31? Yea, ok.



I really don't know how that compares versus the rest of the league. My quick effort was to get a rough idea. So, that could be a reasonable sample vis-a-vis other QBs.



I appreciate your effort. 31 throws tells us literally nothing about a player. It's certainly not a counter weight to his entire career of poor production. [/quote

I would say Daniel surrounded with better players and coaching is showing he much of what you have said he never could be.

He s a good player
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