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NFT: Minor Mets trade

DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 11:36 am
Mets are acquiring RHP Elieser Hernandez and reliever Jeff Brigham from the Marlins for minor league pitcher Franklin Sanchez.
funny  
Dr. D : 11/18/2022 11:40 am : link
the pop up ad right next to this post (at least for me) shows a bottle of champagne being uncorked. It's GOT to mean something, right?!
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 11:40 am : link
I like the @mets trade. Depth is depth. Brigham is the epitome of a depth BP arm and Hernandez (while nothing special) has a live arm and at times has flashed the ability to help the back end of a rotation #Mets
Seidler  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 11:41 am : link
chimes in


Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
3m
this isn't going to blow anyone's socks off but it's a decent back of the rotation candidate and a decent reliever, both of whom probably have some optimization potential, for a relief prospect who can't throw strikes
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DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 11:46 am : link

Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
1m
Both Hernandez and Brigham have Minor League options and experience working in different roles.

Solid, low-risk deal.
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 11:51 am : link

Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
While I'm told the #Dodgers have not made a final decision on Cody Bellinger's future, the chances are better than 50/50 that he will be removed from the roster via trade or non-tender by 8 pm ET today.

@MLBNetwork

@MLB
very nice  
KDavies : 11/18/2022 11:54 am : link
most important thing is the minor league options. Nice to have guys like this to stash in the minors for depth. Ideally neither one is on the MLB team to start the season, though Brigham does have the chance with a very good spring.
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DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 11:55 am : link

Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
1m
Both Brigham and Hernandez have options, like Stephen Ridings (who the Mets picked up earlier in the week on waivers from the NYY). NYM trying to address pitching depth issues without a farm system ready to help much in 2023 in that area.


Look for Hernandez to potentially fill the Trevor Williams role (or something similar)
Hernandez gave up 19 HRs in 62 innings last year  
Vanzetti : 11/18/2022 11:55 am : link
I don't think I have ever seen a number that bad
how is Bellinger in CF defensively?  
KDavies : 11/18/2022 11:57 am : link
if he's adequate, I'd be interested in him as Nimmo insurance in CF.
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 11:59 am : link
FB is his issue. Throws it too much despite a below-average pitch. He's a prime candidate to be adjusted to a "pitch backward" type... heavy breaking balls, less FB, the Mets obviously know more than I do though
RE: how is Bellinger in CF defensively?  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 12:01 pm : link
In comment 15912046 KDavies said:
Quote:
if he's adequate, I'd be interested in him as Nimmo insurance in CF.


Despite his size he's actually an average to slightly above-average CF.
RE: RE: how is Bellinger in CF defensively?  
KDavies : 11/18/2022 12:06 pm : link
In comment 15912050 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 15912046 KDavies said:


Quote:


if he's adequate, I'd be interested in him as Nimmo insurance in CF.



Despite his size he's actually an average to slightly above-average CF.


Still only 27. I'd be interested to see if a change of scenery and coaching could help get him back to form, though he might be better off in a smaller market
RE: how is Bellinger in CF defensively?  
Eric on Li : 11/18/2022 12:15 pm : link
In comment 15912046 KDavies said:
Quote:
if he's adequate, I'd be interested in him as Nimmo insurance in CF.


he is very good in CF. i'd also be very interested in him. i know it's unlikely he ever bounces back but he looked like he was going to be an mvp candidate for a few years there. 850 ops vs. righties for his career.

i'd 100% put him in the same category as conforto, and probably ahead of him since he can play CF even though i'd probably trust conforto's bat more.
I'd  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 12:22 pm : link
say "very good" is overstating his case a bit. 2021+2022 he posted -1 DRS, +8 OAA. That ranks him 9th (10 qualified) in DRS, 6th in OAA (10 qualified). He's better than you'd expect but for context over that time Taylor +38 DRS, Straw +21. He's certainly playable out there. "Solid" is the word I would use given his play over the past 2.
RE: I'd  
Eric on Li : 11/18/2022 12:30 pm : link
In comment 15912085 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
say "very good" is overstating his case a bit. 2021+2022 he posted -1 DRS, +8 OAA. That ranks him 9th (10 qualified) in DRS, 6th in OAA (10 qualified). He's better than you'd expect but for context over that time Taylor +38 DRS, Straw +21. He's certainly playable out there. "Solid" is the word I would use given his play over the past 2.


Nimmo was +4 DRS in 2021 and actually -3 in DRS in 2022. He was +4 OAA and +6 OAA so just ahead of Bellinger in both. From what i've seen of bellinger i'd consider him very comparable and i think both are in the very good category (though this past year Nimmo seemed to edge up closer to GG despite what DRS says).

Bellinger won a fielding bible award in 2019 for multiple positions so he also has that going for him.

i would guess a lot of the teams who miss out on Nimmo go for bellinger.
over their careers  
Eric on Li : 11/18/2022 12:38 pm : link
bellinger is +30 OAA in 1738 attempts (+1 for every 58 attempts)
Nimmo is +17 in 1227 attempts (+1 for every 72 attempts)

bottom line both are + defenders. nimmo off a career year but also 2 years older and presumably a lot more $.
Problem with Bellinger  
Vanzetti : 11/18/2022 12:40 pm : link
Is can a win now team like the Mets afford to give them the at bats he might need to get going?

For example, if he is hitting 190 on May 15, is he going to play?

Seems like Cody would be better off going to a non-contender where he can get a lot of the bats and try and jump start his career
RE: Problem with Bellinger  
Eric on Li : 11/18/2022 12:43 pm : link
In comment 15912114 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
Is can a win now team like the Mets afford to give them the at bats he might need to get going?

For example, if he is hitting 190 on May 15, is he going to play?

Seems like Cody would be better off going to a non-contender where he can get a lot of the bats and try and jump start his career


there's a good argument for that. with colorado rumored to be in on nimmo if they miss out on nimmo that would seem like a great spot for bellinger on a 1 year.
RE: over their careers  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 12:52 pm : link
In comment 15912112 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
bellinger is +30 OAA in 1738 attempts (+1 for every 58 attempts)
Nimmo is +17 in 1227 attempts (+1 for every 72 attempts)

bottom line both are + defenders. nimmo off a career year but also 2 years older and presumably a lot more $.


Again, that ignores his back troubles that have stunted his career and thus his offensive and defensive numbers have declined
I'd  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 12:55 pm : link
take a shot on him but this is pretty sobering regarding his bat
Link - ( New Window )
yeah i mean his crash in production has been staggering  
Eric on Li : 11/18/2022 1:03 pm : link
from what he was a few years ago. after 2019 he may have been 1 of the most valuable assets in all MLB.

but if nimmo moves on he'd be an interesting option depending on price (a lot like conforto coming off the down 2021 and shoulder).
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 1:09 pm : link
Poor 2022 but Candelario 3.9 fWAR in 2021 with a 125 wRC+ vs. righties in 2021. 3b with 1b experience. Yes, they have Baty but I still find him intriguing as a bench piece
RE: .  
Sammo85 : 11/18/2022 1:09 pm : link
In comment 15912048 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
FB is his issue. Throws it too much despite a below-average pitch. He's a prime candidate to be adjusted to a "pitch backward" type... heavy breaking balls, less FB, the Mets obviously know more than I do though


That's a great point - and I suspect Mets see something based on their scouting and new pitching department (in analysis and development)- worth a shot to see.
RE: .  
Vanzetti : 11/18/2022 1:54 pm : link
In comment 15912048 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
FB is his issue. Throws it too much despite a below-average pitch. He's a prime candidate to be adjusted to a "pitch backward" type... heavy breaking balls, less FB, the Mets obviously know more than I do though


That's what I was wondering: if the Mets see this guy as somebody who can be fixed/remodeled (like the Dodgers have done with several pitchers).

Because apart from shortened 2020 season, the numbers are bad
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 2:33 pm : link

Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
16m
The Mets have also made yet another waiver claim, grabbing right-handed pitcher William Woods from the Braves. He's 23 years old and made his Major League debut this past season.

Mets have been using the waiver wire aggressively given all their open 40-man space.
Upper 90's FB  
DanMetroMan : 11/18/2022 2:35 pm : link
live stuff. Why not?
RE: .  
GF1080 : 11/18/2022 2:37 pm : link
In comment 15912234 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:

Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
16m
The Mets have also made yet another waiver claim, grabbing right-handed pitcher William Woods from the Braves. He's 23 years old and made his Major League debut this past season.

Mets have been using the waiver wire aggressively given all their open 40-man space.


#25 on Pipeline.

A little bit of a surprise ATL let him go. I know he's had some injuries.
RE: RE: .  
KDavies : 11/18/2022 2:51 pm : link
In comment 15912238 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 15912234 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:



Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
16m
The Mets have also made yet another waiver claim, grabbing right-handed pitcher William Woods from the Braves. He's 23 years old and made his Major League debut this past season.

Mets have been using the waiver wire aggressively given all their open 40-man space.



#25 on Pipeline.

A little bit of a surprise ATL let him go. I know he's had some injuries.


It's funny. You go on the Braves to 30 prospects there, Woods is still on there, but listed with the Mets.

Looks interesting:

"Everything Woods throws is hard, starting with a fastball in the 96-99 mph range that has good life up in the zone. He has a power slider that might eventually be an above-average swing-and-miss pitch and a firm changeup that’s clearly his third pitch, but has the chance to be usable.

The key for Woods is going to be continuing to improve his command, though it doesn’t have to be as pinpoint in a relief role. In shorter stints, a fastball that hits triple digits in shorter stints with a nasty slider could get the job done."
Link - ( New Window )
new article from rosenthal - nothing ground breaking but interesting  
Eric on Li : 11/21/2022 9:06 am : link
not feeling confident nimmo comes back at this price but bellinger on a 1 year deal would be a great rebound (imo). he has the position flex to move around to a bunch of different spots. there are plenty of warning signs but at the end of the day he had 49 XBH last year (nimmo had 53) and plays good d.

Quote:
Cody Bellinger is a free agent at 27, an ideal age for a player to hit the open market. But his agent, Scott Boras, sounds as if he wants Bellinger to sign only a one-year deal.

“I’ve already been offered multi-years,” Boras said Sunday, two days after the Dodgers declined to tender Bellinger a contract for 2023. “Most likely, because of his age, we don’t want a multi-year.”


Quote:
Nimmo poised to cash in

The biggest free-agent contract signed by a center fielder was Jacoby Ellsbury’s seven-year, $153 million deal with the Yankees prior to the 2014 season. Mike Trout and Julio Rodríguez eventually landed bigger guarantees, but through extensions, not the open market.

Brandon Nimmo, the top center fielder in this year’s free-agent class, shares certain similarities with Ellsbury. Both were first-round picks who developed into left-handed hitting leadoff men with speed. Both hit the open market represented by Boras entering their Age 30 seasons. Both were not always durable in the early years of their careers.


i believe the payroll is about 200m with diaz so:

JDG (2x45m?),
Bellinger (1x20m?),
Senga (5x15m?),

they'd be at $280m with BP left to fill and they'd ideally need to make at least 1 trade to add 1 more mid-order hitter (probably a COF/1B).

if they miss on JDG then Rodon or Bassitt. If they miss on Senga then bring back Walker. Obviously plan A is getting JDG back on a deal that makes sense but if he moves you do probably get a chunk of money big enough to sign Contreras.

then hammer out extensions with alonso and mcneil.
Rosenthal: Will Cody Bellinger sign one-year deal? Plus Brandon Nimmo’s potential and more - ( New Window )
also if the DBs price is fair for Alek Thomas and/or Jake McCarthy  
Eric on Li : 11/21/2022 9:19 am : link
sign me up for either one of them and then you have the money to add Contreras with JDG back. they need offense and pitching so i wonder if some combo of vogelbach/megill gets something done. both seem to be on the dom smith side of things.
id sign for this group opening day  
Eric on Li : 11/21/2022 9:25 am : link
mcneil
marte
lindor
alonso
contreras (c/dh)
escobar (baty mixing in)
canha (baty mixing in)
DH (vientos, alvarez, baty, vogey)
CF (either bellinger or 1 of the dbs)

scherzer, jdg, senga, carrasco, peterson
diaz, robertson, etc.

maybe they can flip carrasco to the DBs for one of the CF'ers and then just sign back Walker. 1 year 11m is pretty reasonable for a starter who had the year carrasco had last year.
Senga  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:12 pm : link
has spoken to 12 teams as of today
Yankees  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:13 pm : link
are looking into deGrom
RE: also if the DBs price is fair for Alek Thomas and/or Jake McCarthy  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:16 pm : link
In comment 15916249 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
sign me up for either one of them and then you have the money to add Contreras with JDG back. they need offense and pitching so i wonder if some combo of vogelbach/megill gets something done. both seem to be on the dom smith side of things.


I don't see Arizona selling low on Alek Thomas. He came into 2022 a consensus top 20-40 prospect in baseball. He struggled as a rookie but was still only 22 years old. His career OPS in AAA is 1.024 (Yes it's the PCL)
Carrasco  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:20 pm : link
to Arizona for Alek Thomas? Carrasco is 36 in March and Thomas isn't a FA until after 2028. Am I reading this proposal wrong? If so I apologize, otherwise it's nowhere near realistic. Arizona won 74 games last year, they aren't trading a top young talent (iffy rookie year or not) for Carlos Carrasco.
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:22 pm : link
Michael Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
1h
Here are the former Mets that will be on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this year:

R.A. Dickey
Francisco Rodríguez
Carlos Beltrán
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:32 pm : link
@mets have signed 19-year old P Edgar Moreta from Dominican Republic. 6'4" 192 #Mets
Mets drafted Haniger in 2009  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:40 pm : link
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
·
1h
Sources: #Dodgers and #Angels showing interest in free agent OF Mitch Haniger. The #Rangers, as first reported by @Ken_Rosenthal
, also are among the most active suitors for Haniger.

Of note, Haniger has a career .846 OPS at Angel Stadium.
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:43 pm : link
The Mets have already been linked to several available starters early in the offseason, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Jameson Taillon is one of the names the club has been in touch with during its ongoing pitching search. Taillon (who just turned 31 on November 18) is a free agent for the first time in his career, and he ranks 14th on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.
Carrasco  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:47 pm : link
is owed 14 million in 2023. You're probably thinking of the "11 more" they had to pay him if they picked up his option (3 million buyout).
Arizona  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 1:52 pm : link
expected to use Kyle Lewis mostly as a DH thanks to his knee issues. Poor guy could have had a very nice/long career as an OFer if not for the consistent issues with his legs/knees.
RE: Carrasco  
Eric on Li : 11/21/2022 2:04 pm : link
In comment 15916926 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
is owed 14 million in 2023. You're probably thinking of the "11 more" they had to pay him if they picked up his option (3 million buyout).


yeah i still had that math in my head. the diamondbacks are likely going to have a pretty strong market for whichever OF they are going to trade judging by the apparently strong markets of Nimmo/Bellinger who are obviously older and more expensive. i agree carrasco isn't a strong return on his own but you never know sometimes teams make bad deals (we did when we overrated Ruf at the deadline).

i would be kind of surprised at this point if the mets don't get 1 of Nimmo or Bellinger. i'd probably guess it's something like 75% likely they get 1 or the other. for payroll purposes the year 1 amount toward lux tax probably won't be meaningfully different so it's really just if someone offers Nimmo so many years it doesn't make sense.
here's an interesting point re QOs + draft i hadn't considered  
Eric on Li : 11/21/2022 2:11 pm : link
Quote:
Doug
@FTLO_Baseball
My first preference is deGrom being a Met for life at all costs and it isn't close.

But plan B should take advantage of the Verlander, Taillon, Walker, Senga market, and accumulating/preserving draft/IFA capital.

Resign Nimmo, and potentially draft 1,2,3,3-comp,4,4-comp x2.

FTLO_Baseball's avatar
Doug @FTLO_Baseball
4h
That's potentially 7 to 8 picks in the first 150 players, with a good bit of flexibility in pool space, and save 1M in IFA spending as well.


that wouldn't quite be the same level of $ to throw around as this past draft but picking that high they'd be able to get a lot of the value picks they like and probably 1 or 2 decently over slot. since LA non-tendered Bellinger he could fit in that plan (with nimmo adding an extra pick) too. and then if Bellinger plays good on a 1 year deal, they could QO him next year and maybe get another pick.

i really hope they leverage cohen's cash as much as possible like that to basically create extra draft picks/prospects out of thin air.
A former  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 2:14 pm : link
Mets intern named Olivia Palacio is the first woman to make a D1 men’s baseball team (Brown) pretty cool
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 3:51 pm : link
TIL: Denton True "Cy" Young was called "Cy" because during his first minor league appearance he threw so hard the fences looked as if they had been hit by a cyclone
.  
DanMetroMan : 11/21/2022 4:32 pm : link
Sporting Green
@SportingGreenSF
The Giants have checked in on both Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger, free agents who could help fill the team's hole in center field.
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