Giants are regressing to the mean

We started 7-1?

In comment 15916124 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:

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We started 7-1?

Sorry, 7-2. Or 6-1. You get the idea though don't you?

The regression to the mean (as you put it) is much more due to the devastating injuries than to an inadequate offensive line, and terrible wide receiver and LBer units.

Even with all "talent issues" with these three units, I felt the Giants could actually make the playoffs after their fantastic first half. Now, I'm not so sure with such a decimated roster. But in my view that's not exactly a "regression to the mean."

More like a regression to the mean due to extenuating circumstances.

is a statistical concept and I'm not really sure it applies here. All signs point to regressing due to injuries, not because we've played enough games to bounce back to the norm. Statistics aren't needed to analyze the 2022 Giants - we just don't have the horses.

now that the horseshoe got dislodged from their ass.

Than I thought they'd have. Not enough talent on the roster to make up for all the injuries. They probably can squeeze two more wins in the remaining schedule.

To that but, there is something to be said about energy and momentum. I think we lost a tad against Seattle and then lost a tad more with McKinney's accident off the field.

We beat Houston but it took a lot to get there and I am starting to think it is energy and mental energy that we are coming up short on.

We need to get through Thursday as healthy as possible and regroup for the last 6 games...

Can we win Thursday? Of course we can but right now we are coming in a bit deflated and might just need the 10 days leading to Washington..

Have to start chilling out. These overreaction threads are too much. Did they play well yesterday? No. But there will be wins down the road - some of which nobody on here currently expects. Things turn very quickly in the NFL, and this is the same team that has pulled out nice victories in the season’s first half. Injuries suck, but they will find a way to get past them.

There are two big issues going on. The first is that most on here live and die by what the giants did in the last game. It’s just one game and teams lose all the time. They’ll play better in future games. The second is that there is an overwhelming defeatist attitude amongst giants fans. Instead of enjoying the season, many are constantly looking to see what will go wrong. And the moment something does, it’s a full in panic. You’re watching this team because it is supposed to be fun. Just relax and enjoy it. There are ALWAYS ups and downs every season. They are still way outperforming expectations.

As the Giants lay an egg in two of the last three games too many posters have justified the losses by saying we would have been happy with this record three months ago. Of course that is true and of course no one really expected a team with this many holes and injuries to do well enough to win many games. But it is not an excuse for poor play, stupid penalties and some bizarre decisions by the coaching staff.

With the wins comes a higher bar for the Giants to surpass. At that point fans have a right to expect more than was the case two months ago. Too many plays lost to stupid penalties. Using the best CB as a punt returner another really questionable decision. Offensive play calling that is incredibly stubborn when it is clear that opponents have figured out that stopping Barkley is the key. Earlier in the season it was clear that the play calling was good and imaginative. What has happened as the play calling has regressed to an ultraconservative approach.

No excuses for the clunker yesterday and being happy with 7 wins because of poor preseason forecasts is a losing mentality when the team has proven it can at least be competitive with most teams.

but if you thought this team was headed to 12+ wins and a playoff push, your expectation were and are too high.

Two impact players having Pro Bowl seasons. Both injuries preventable. They could it afford to lose their center and right tackle same game.

This season has already been a success. The franchise has been turned around. More talent on defense than we knew we had.

But the party’s over for the season. Other three division teams playing at the top of their game. Giants are passing them on the way down.

for an arrest soon.

have either Joe Schoen or Brian Daboll been carried away or fooled by the results. They appreciate the effort, but they can see how this squad has been overperforming and needs upgrades. They can't be expected to turn this ship around in a single season.
I also believe that they would really like to find a better QB than Daniel Jones, but that that is the biggest single challenge, given that other teams looking for a QB are going to have a higher draft position than us. The Texans look a lock for #1 pick and I would think the Panthers will be up there at #2 or #3.

It is like after the first 5 frames, someone breaks a finger or 2 before you bowl each of you next frames, and then you slip on your approach because they are using synthetic wood instead of natural wood and you tear your acl.

Now you are bowling with 2 hands between your legs, sitting in a chair and they won’t even let you use the little ramp to roll the ball down. Also, you are now getting called for foot faults.

and also agree w/ Gruber that I believe our coaches & GM know what we have (and what we don't) and weren't carried away by anything.

this season was always going to be S1 of this regime's rebuilding... see what we have and what is worth keeping and where the upgrades need to happen... and I think that is still the case, albeit with a better record to show for it than most expected.

i am really bummed about the L and the injuries but I have to remind myself what this team's expectations realistically were.

I am still hoping for 10 wins and WC berth. that would make a helluva fun season.

You are what your record says you are.

At the end of the season, that's what we'll be. But the worry is, opposing teams now have lots more game film to prepare for us. Our early season success might not be replicated because the element of surprise is no longer with us, and teams are starting to develop a game plan to deal with us. Of course injuries are a part of that. But other teams are dealing with that too.

I still have confidence in Daboll. But with the meat of our NFC East schedule coming upon us, we'll need to put our seatbelts on. Lots of turbulence ahead.

Of course this is regression to the mean. It's obvious. Those saying otherwise have it wrong.

In comment 15916205 Spider43 said:

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You are what your record says you are. At the end of the season, that's what we'll be. But the worry is, opposing teams now have lots more game film to prepare for us. Our early season success might not be replicated because the element of surprise is no longer with us, and teams are starting to develop a game plan to deal with us. Of course injuries are a part of that. But other teams are dealing with that too. I still have confidence in Daboll. But with the meat of our NFC East schedule coming upon us, we'll need to put our seatbelts on. Lots of turbulence ahead.

I love Tuna, but that's a truism, which is common in coachspeak. Tuna isn't a mathematician.

I think it’s pretty clear that our record will be our record, lol. We are talking about the why and the why is very unfortunate. The talent gap was vast all season, but now it’s just too much.

before yesterday. That is not a talentless team. It was a team playing to its potential. That team also could have had 3-4 wins before yesterday.

With good health this year some here said they could be about a .500 team plus or minus a game or so depending how things broke. This is a lot of teams in the NFL.

As the injuries have piled up at key spots (and the more talented players) they played yesterday to that talent level.

If they get some guys back they have a chance to go back to the norm. Competitive 4th Qtr games that they can pull out or not.

In comment 15916169 JonC said:

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but if you thought this team was headed to 12+ wins and a playoff push, your expectation were and are too high.

This was a rebuilding year with a completely new coaching staff and GM. We have many new players and now the most injuries in the NFL. With no TE anymore and no WR's what did anyone expect? Just get as many players back as possible
and develop them

In comment 15916252 nochance said:

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In comment 15916169 JonC said: Quote: but if you thought this team was headed to 12+ wins and a playoff push, your expectation were and are too high. This was a rebuilding year with a completely new coaching staff and GM. We have many new players and now the most injuries in the NFL. With no TE anymore and no WR's what did anyone expect? Just get as many players back as possible and develop them

I'm quite fatigued by folks on BBI saying we have the worst of everything.

The most injuries
The worst OL
The worst WRs
The worst treatment by refs
The most drops
A qb who is so unlucky he can't be evaluated
Etc etc

Why are the Giants so uniquely unfortunate to have the whole league against us, and all the fortunes opposed to us?

[i]Instead of enjoying the season, many are constantly looking to see what will go wrong. And the moment something does, it’s a full in panic. You’re watching this team because it is supposed to be fun. Just relax and enjoy it.[\i]

I have never yet been able to relax and enjoy a competitive game in which playoff status was still undecided.

Somehow I don’t think that getting plastered by Dallas again on national TV is going to be a game that I will relax and enjoy.

The Giants are a below average team that had a combo of

- weak competition
- excellent coaching
- mistake limitation
- good fortune (or if you like winning high leverage plays at an unsustainable level)

That got us to 7-2. It's not a 7-2 team. Never was. Totally obvious to see. And its fine. This is the beginning. It was never, ever about this year.

In comment 15916297 Jerry in_DC said:

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The Giants are a below average team that had a combo of - weak competition - excellent coaching - mistake limitation - good fortune (or if you like winning high leverage plays at an unsustainable level) That got us to 7-2. It's not a 7-2 team. Never was. Totally obvious to see. And its fine. This is the beginning. It was never, ever about this year.

points 2 and 3 don’t make sense, most good teams have both.

All they have accomplished this season is essentially hurting their ‘23 drafting position. Started flat…got flatter. ‘22 has jumped the shark, starting with the X man on his atv.

Off on the application.

Regressing to the mean is something that happens over large sample sizes. It is not a short term concept. A 150 bowler who starts with 4 strikes is not going to completely melt down in that game to come out around 150.

And sports are not a random statistical distribution. Your 150 bowler can improve and over time become a 180 bowler with practice. Football teams can get better year to year. They can lose games because of injuries. There are many factors at play beyond statistical regression.

In comment 15916317 thrunthrublue said:

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All they have accomplished this season is essentially hurting their ‘23 drafting position. Started flat…got flatter. ‘22 has jumped the shark, starting with the X man on his atv.

So by that reasoning the goals of all teams should be to tank the season so they draft top 5 every year. Where'd that get them over the last 10 years?

The Ravens and Packers and Jags away who are better than people think. When I hear the word mean I think of a defensive lineman. In my opinion the team had no edge and not much intensity and the Lions were in a malicious attack mode all game. When your guard gets slapped backward on passing plays and your line is knocked backwards on about every running play you will not win many football games. The play calling was bad, special teams still having issues(at least Cotten shirts were not an excuse) and add turnovers to boot. The only value here I think is that Daboll will learn a lot from this game and grow as a coach.

In comment 15916488 greatgrandpa said:

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The Ravens and Packers and Jags away who are better than people think. When I hear the word mean I think of a defensive lineman. In my opinion the team had no edge and not much intensity and the Lions were in a malicious attack mode all game. When your guard gets slapped backward on passing plays and your line is knocked backwards on about every running play you will not win many football games. The play calling was bad, special teams still having issues(at least Cotten shirts were not an excuse) and add turnovers to boot. The only value here I think is that Daboll will learn a lot from this game and grow as a coach.

We've won a number of close games we could easily have lost, just the Lions lost a number of close games they could have won. Lions have a good head coach, they're not as bad as their record going into yesterday's game would suggest. Likewise, as pretty much everyone outside NY knows, the Giants are not as good as a 7-2 record would suggest.

This is an mostly different team with a few holdovers. New coaches top to bottom. New GM. They do not have an average. They are a statistical unknown. Let's see how the rest of the season plays out. I'm less optimistic after losing Jackson and Moreau and Pinnock and Robinson yesterday, but I think this team has a lot of fight and heart and great coaches getting them ready to go. I'm gonna wait and see.

but ok whatever you need to process this season have at it.

Giants are a good team. They SHOULD be 7-3 because they are 7-3. They are now severely banged up. End.

In comment 15916172 giantBCP said:

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for an arrest soon.

Love the optimism.

Maybe a plane mishap?